"Advantage Player" and Craps
Poll
 | 35 votes (58.33%) | ||
| | 25 votes (41.66%) |
60 members have voted
Quote: MathExtremistBuying someone else's don't bets after the come out for even money is +EV. It requires a willing non-AP, but if they really don't like 6s and 8s, I'm happy to oblige.
this is probably the sole non-shady AP move in craps.
and I'd say 75% of the players who dabble in it will at least sometimes want "no action" on 6/8- the trick is convincing them to sell it instead. They become very suspicious.
I know this 200% wouldn't fly in Delaware.
Quote: WatchMeWinI just wanted to know where you normally play because I wld like to play craps with you sometime. I assume you live in vegas
You've been gone a while. In the mean time, we've had some kind of stalker-ish and trollish activity here. You're coming off like one in this and a couple other threads. I would suggest that, instead of asking people where they live or play, that you
1. Say where YOU play, and ask if anyone wants to get together.
2. PM someone you want to meet, and accept a no or non-answer as such.
3. Come to one of the wov meet-ups and get to know some people. There's a wov east thing tentatively in April, and usually a wov Las Vegas thing in May. There just was one in September.
Quote: gamerfreakHow do you proposition that move and do you have to keep it secret from the dealer?
First time I tried I was right across from the base, he didn't seem to care, or didn't notice.
After the Don't player waved off his first DC action I just said, "Let the next one travel, I'll buy it from you." No problem.
On a different session, a different dealer heard the proposition and gave out a pretty loud "What?" that got the interest of the box. I didn't think I was doing anything wrong, so explained what we were doing. The box put an end to it.
I've only tired a few times since; don't want to make waves at my only local casino over a nickel. Probably best to be in the corner with the DC box, out of the boxman's line of sight.
I never had anyone renege when the seven out came.
Quote: CalderFirst time I tried I was right across from the base, he didn't seem to care, or didn't notice.
After the Don't player waved off his first DC action I just said, "Let the next one travel, I'll buy it from you." No problem.
On a different session, a different dealer heard the proposition and gave out a pretty loud "What?" that got the interest of the box. I didn't think I was doing anything wrong, so explained what we were doing. The box put an end to it.
I've only tired a few times since; don't want to make waves at my only local casino over a nickel. Probably best to be in the corner with the DC box, out of the boxman's line of sight.
I never had anyone renege when the seven out came.
So you don't use the co-op of another player like math-extremist said?
If that's the case I guess it would depend on an incompetent dealer, similar to hole carding?
It's crazy how simple yet so complex craps can be.
The Don't player has to agree to the deal, it's his bet, after all.
My hope was that it was just a proposition between two players, but the box didn't see it that way. His table.
Quote: CalderNot sure I get your question.
The Don't player has to agree to the deal, it's his bet, after all.
My hope was that it was just a proposition between two players, but the box didn't see it that way. His table.
Gotcha, I misunderstood you.
I've been reprimanded at Delaware Park for any sort of side-action between players. But they are, by far, the most strict casino I've ever attended. I've never tried anywhere else, I cause they freaked out so badly in Delaware that I just figured that was a standard rule.
The 1.4% HE on the flat bet works out to a little more than a nickel, or maybe $1.50 or a bit more on 30 bets an hour. I can cover that with no problem for an hour or so, leaving us with significant room for odds bets.Quote: MathExtremistNo, I'm not talking about odds. This guy was pulling his don't bets after the come out. I paid him face value and took over the bets, which we're conditionally +EV at that point.
I'm not sure I follow. Odds bets aren't +EV regardless. My point was that I had a theoretical edge. But I was in my early 20s and thought I was hot stuff, being a +EV craps player. I've long since moved past the point where I would spend my leisure time following a stranger around just to make a few bucks in theo.Quote: SanchoPanzaThe 1.4% HE on the flat bet works out to a little more than a nickel, or maybe $1.50 or a bit more on 30 bets an hour. I can cover that with no problem for an hour or so, leaving us with significant room for odds bets.
Quote: MathExtremistI'm not sure I follow. Odds bets aren't +EV regardless. My point was that I had a theoretical edge. But I was in my early 20s and thought I was hot stuff, being a +EV craps player. I've long since moved past the point where I would spend my leisure time following a stranger around just to make a few bucks in theo.
Well, some of this "AP" stuff is just the idea that you had a good bet for a change in a casino, not that it's going to make a guy rich.
It's occurred to me that if I was serious about it, then I need to reverse my usual tactics and seek out the higher minimums at the tables available. A $5 table offers really only an even trade, there's no way you can sweeten the pot on each bet, and it's close to break-even to offer an extra buck on wins. A buck on every 5 wins, say, is too complicated. All this is no good.
I think the chances of finding a 6/8-hating Dark-sider at the higher mins is better as well. Of course you would be giving up more on your own line bets, but the EV is tolerable even for $25 line bets; it might be time to do no odds to get low variance, and also usually you can get away with not betting at all for periods of time. Or to horrify the Wiz, you could just bet a dollar in the middle once in a while, no line bets.
The guy betting purple is probably more interested in showing off his money or attempting to win a lot -- he almost certainly doesn't care about a quarter.
Quote: RSIn my experience, don't-players tend to be bigger bettors. They also tend to be more a**hole-ish, at least the ones betting more....so perhaps that'll weaken your chance of being able to buy their bets, even if it's a bet they don't want and you offer a premium. Unfortunately, any premium you offer is likely not to be influenced with it. You'll get a 1/11 or 9% advantage on a bet you take action on (6 or 8). Offering a 5% premium, which I think would be a bit steep (hey, I still wanna make some damn money now!) isn't that much to a gambler. Some dude got $500 bets (laying $3k) and you're gonna offer him a $25 premium on his bet? That $25 means nothing to him. He'll either give it to you or he won't, IMO.
The guy betting purple is probably more interested in showing off his money or attempting to win a lot -- he almost certainly doesn't care about a quarter.
The sweet zone might be around the $15 min table, where you could throw an extra buck on wins. Maybe avoid the total nuts better at such a table.
Yeah, somebody putting out big action, that's not likely to be your guy.
It's a tiny bit of a paradox in that many times they "know" ... when they talk about moving it to the DC box they often say "not recommended, I know!" or " they say never to do that". Of course such a guy is opening up to you and it *is* time to offer taking the bet, mentioning that just even money is a better deal - plus you can sweeten it on wins.
Push the button... come on push the button!
Quote: monet0412
Push the button... come on push the button!
I should imagine you also found yourself saying that in a serious manner, at times. I have seen people sitting on that stupid machine who absolutely refuse to just PUSH THE FRIGGIN' BUTTON until they have one second left. Or, did you have the entire unit locked up?
Quote: Mission146I should imagine you also found yourself saying that in a serious manner, at times. I have seen people sitting on that stupid machine who absolutely refuse to just PUSH THE FRIGGIN' BUTTON until they have one second left. Or, did you have the entire unit locked up?
Your right. I'd kick my wife under the table when she was watching the timer run out lol!
Actually I was saying it in an irritated manner. When I played that machine I either had two or four spots locked up. You know why and what to bet. It's just rather annoying and boring. The hourly is fine but I'd rather play some game with the same hourly with some variance to it to break up the monotony. Also when you lock into that game your stuck and can't loop around putting coin in other shops. I could just play it for an hour or two a day in this one spot I suppose but that noise gets to me after a short while. The last two nights I hit two progressives next to that game and the other vision machine that says: "play" "play" "play" over and over. After awhile I barely hear either. It was nice to hit both progressives in a total of around 3500 spins netting a 2200 dollar win + points and mail and courtesy comps. The craps machine was full with the usual suspects who play 6-12 hrs a day for months on end lately. Must be good but I have other games to play 😃
I guess those guys "don't matter" to surveillance like that surveillance employee said in the other post. If they were winning too much they would of caught them and 86'd them long ago. Nobody beats the house!
They camp out hard though, eating food all over the machine with outside drinks around it and they like to write every number down and fake cry when they seven out. Kinda funny actually!
On a serious note... while those guys were hammering that dice machine I was spinning reels at a 5% hammer for 3 days a month for about 50 hours total. That was worth 150 an hour so 7500 in cash a month plus heavy mail and CCs but surveillance didn't bother me cause people like me don't matter!! The funny thing is it wouldn't show up because on paper I am showing a 3% loss which shows up as a 4500 dollar loss per month! Nobody beats the house!!
How much those guys matter really depends on the house. I've not experienced any personal heat on those machines, but I do hear that there are houses that monitor those machines fairly closely.
The last paragraph sounds like fairly smart cover, best cover one is going to get, anyway.
As you know... mistakes happen but in the end the house always wins... right??
Quote: monet0412I don't want to get too deep into but it is +EV but you could die of boredom.
It's so easy to figure out if they're +EV that talking about it shouldn't matter much at all. Players making max bets at multiple seats is why they (almost all) got shut down. To me, $475 riding on one push would keep me much more interested than any other machine I've played recently.
Found one recently that may be playable. Forgot to look further into it until now. I'll test it out tomorrow and see if it may be viable
Quote: TomGIt's so easy to figure out if they're +EV that talking about it shouldn't matter much at all. Players making max bets at multiple seats is why they (almost all) got shut down. To me, $475 riding on one push would keep me much more interested than any other machine I've played recently.
Found one recently that may be playable. Forgot to look further into it until now. I'll test it out tomorrow and see if it may be viable
I'm scared. Recently some guy working surveillance posted that they know all and see all. I don't want to give all the information up on black and white. Like you said... I said enough to be able to figure it out if your into this sort of thing.
Your right ... some guys just play one card , max bet, straight up but I like to spread it out with two to four and get everyone free steaks, and not have any risk of variance.
Quote: monet0412
As you know... mistakes happen but in the end the house always wins... right??
Unless that house is the Trump Taj Mahal.
After the comma in your last sentence is where you may be getting into the realm of, 'Saying too much!'
Then you walk away with very few hits and tip the dealer $5. There's plenty of ways to do it. People acting like you're getting a system sold to you when I explain this.
Quote: RomesSimple math time... On any given roll:
EV = (Field single pay - any 7 loss) + (Field double pay - any 7 loss) + (Any 7 pay - field loss) - (5, 6, 8 lose)
EV = (14/6)(10-5 + (2/36)(20-5) + (6/36)(25-10) - (14/36)(-15)
EV = (14/36)(5) + (2/36)15 + (6/36)(15) -
EV = 1.9444 + .8333 + 2.5 - 5.8333
EV = -.5556
If you double your bet:
EV(doubled bet) = 2(EV) = -1.1113
If you quadruple your bet:
EV(4x bet) = 4(EV) = -2.2225
....and so on... YOU LOSE MONEY EVERY SINGLE THROW and eventually when you get enough throws to start moving towards the long run you will GUARANTEED LOSE MONEY.
Right, but I was thinking more of someone betting $35 on the field and $15 on the any7 after that so as not to need to play catchup. That should about do it. ;P Please understand this isn't a real system and if you were to use something like this you're just trying to duck a few handpicked numbers for a minute or two
Quote: MrChukklezQuote: RomesSimple math time... On any given roll:
EV = (Field single pay - any 7 loss) + (Field double pay - any 7 loss) + (Any 7 pay - field loss) - (5, 6, 8 lose)
EV = (14/6)(10-5 + (2/36)(20-5) + (6/36)(25-10) - (14/36)(-15)
EV = (14/36)(5) + (2/36)15 + (6/36)(15) -
EV = 1.9444 + .8333 + 2.5 - 5.8333
EV = -.5556
If you double your bet:
EV(doubled bet) = 2(EV) = -1.1113
If you quadruple your bet:
EV(4x bet) = 4(EV) = -2.2225
....and so on... YOU LOSE MONEY EVERY SINGLE THROW and eventually when you get enough throws to start moving towards the long run you will GUARANTEED LOSE MONEY.
Right, but I was thinking more of someone betting $35 on the field and $15 on the any7 after that so as not to need to play catchup. That should about do it. ;P Please understand this isn't a real system and if you were to use something like this you're just trying to duck a few handpicked numbers for a minute or two
Sounds like an awful system.
So, like switching your bet to the 'don't' after the puck flips to 'on'? You better tip whoever lets you do that!Quote: MrChukklezLol it's just a cheap example of a iron cross copy. Advantage playing is putting better odds of a hit over the risk of losing more than you can win.
Then you walk away with very few hits and tip the dealer $5.
Quote:There's plenty of ways to do it. People acting like you're getting a system sold to you when I explain this.
Well, as a matter of fact I was going to offer you some money for your system. But you seem to be backing off of it now.
So I won't.
Quote: odiousgambitSo, like switching your bet to the 'don't' after the puck flips to 'on'? You better tip whoever lets you do that!
Well, as a matter of fact I was going to offer you some money for your system. But you seem to be backing off of it now.
So I won't.
Nah, like taking the 6and8 with your point, but taking all the bets down at once after 1 hit instead of pressing them
Would be better to have 3 numbers running at true odds, but this way you can choose the numbers to be working and take down everything besides your flat bet after X hits.
Billy Mays couldn't sell that system to a leaky bathtub in hell, man. ;P
Quote: MrChukklez
Billy Mays couldn't sell that system to a leaky bathtub in hell, man. ;P
Billy ain't selling anything these days.
Quote: Mission146Unless that house is the Trump Taj Mahal.
That is funny..lol Although, the house didn't really lose. Donald still paid himself a huge salary and bonuses. Executives still got paid big money. Players still lost. The only ones who didn't win were the bag holding bond holders and bankers who saw there loans get written off... ultimately passing down to the stock holders. Revel was a beauty! 2 Billion blown and then written off primarily from Morgan Stanley (about 1 billion) and some from state of NJ (300 million).. I wish I could borrow money, mismanage it, pay myself a huge fee personally, and then not have to pay it back. Geeze!
Quote: MrChukklez
Billy Mays couldn't sell that system to a leaky bathtub in hell, man. ;P
Too soon
Not really an option, you know. I mean what alternatives are there? If you are in Vegas for a two week vacation you sure don't want to watch TV. I don't care for slots. I find baccarat to be rather easy but its not all that exciting you know. I'd like 21 but dealers get angry with players who can't add or who fall asleep at the table.
So what options are there. That is like saying 'OWN the craps table'. Yeah, Id LOVE to own a casino... wanna give me a few hundred million dollars so I can actually own one?
I ain't got the option of having a positive expectation due to poverty and I ain't got the option of daisy-chaining negative expectations together into some sort of positive expectation 'cause nobody got that option.
Bingo is out, Big Wheel is out, so it really comes down to craps for me.
Advantage Craps? There is no such thing.
Walking away from the table? That is like telling a fisherman he can walk away from the fish.
Quote: WatchMeWinThat is funny..lol Although, the house didn't really lose. Donald still paid himself a huge salary and bonuses. Executives still got paid big money. Players still lost. The only ones who didn't win were the bag holding bond holders and bankers who saw there loans get written off... ultimately passing down to the stock holders. Revel was a beauty! 2 Billion blown and then written off primarily from Morgan Stanley (about 1 billion) and some from state of NJ (300 million).. I wish I could borrow money, mismanage it, pay myself a huge fee personally, and then not have to pay it back. Geeze!
You can and millions do except instead of paying themselves a fee they just go over the top with merchandise. With credit cards. Except it's not billions. It's scaled down to middle class level. For most it's somewhere around 75K. On top of second mortgage loans, student loans, car loans, etc. They pay the minimum on a few different cards by getting a cash advance or a balance transfer from another card. Then, they declare bankruptcy and stick the banks with the bill who pass it on to those of us who pay diligently with higher interest rates and lesser incentives. So, they end up getting somewhere about 100k of merch they don't have to pay for. Basically free. Then they suffer the severe punishment of not being able to get another credit card for 7 years. They must pay in cash for that time period. Brutal. A lot of small business people do something similar too. They go bankrupt in one state and then go open up again in a different state.
That's why you need to get into slots more. You can actually get an advantage sometimes and fall asleep without much of a problem.Quote: FleaStiff
