Thread Rating:

sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 544
March 12th, 2014 at 8:10:15 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

but the majority of the bankroll is a combination of a 20K 0% balance transfer I took out from a credit card and a ROTH IRA balance



So if you lose is your plan bankruptcy?
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
March 12th, 2014 at 8:13:20 AM permalink
Guys, especially you new guys, go to Qfit.com and have a look at Casino Verite. It's a small price to pay to answer any question you can pose. If you like odds, percentages etc, it's all there.

For example, everyone's ROR or win rate is not the same, even at the same table. That's why we can only ballpark a lot of your questions. The software will consider many things tailored to you and only you. Some variables that you can enter are the count used, spread, number of players at the table, hands per hour, rules, penetration, one spot or two and on and on. It's good stuff by a good and knowledgeable guy.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
tilt247
tilt247
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 37
March 12th, 2014 at 9:11:14 AM permalink
I would just like to add Foxwoods is a SWEAT SHOP. You may be able to survive a bit playing the h17 games, but don't dare venture into the high limit rooms and play. You will have to do alot of wonging whether you like it or not. short sessions at each table / pit. Other than that, everyone else pretty much gave you what you need other than telling you expect to be backed off at Foxwoods if you don't wong out frequently.
Wait, it's a long term advantage?
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
March 12th, 2014 at 11:54:34 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

AxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?

in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..



Where do you get 2%? I estimate your ROR as between 20 and 40%. Specifically, 40% for the 8-deck game you mentioned earlier, since you know no indices and I assume a lack of aggressive wonging. It could be lower if you learned more and attacked a different game, but 2% is absolutely wrong for practical purposes. If you want to assume your ROR is less than 5%, you are heading into treacherous waters. 2% ROR is what a computer would have with your spread with decent penetration, because it makes no mistakes, bets optimally, uses indices, and wongs.
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
March 12th, 2014 at 1:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: tilt247

I would just like to add Foxwoods is a SWEAT SHOP. You may be able to survive a bit playing the h17 games, but don't dare venture into the high limit rooms and play. You will have to do alot of wonging whether you like it or not. short sessions at each table / pit. Other than that, everyone else pretty much gave you what you need other than telling you expect to be backed off at Foxwoods if you don't wong out frequently.



It's because of the deep penetration although the Newport Room has always been tough. I was backed off there once when I had only reached half my spread. Another time, I was flat bet for excessive wonging out. When everyone leaves the table, the procedure is for the dealer to spread the cards and shuffle when someone new sits down. Not for me. They would leave the partially dealt negative shoe in anticipation of my return. They would also raise the minimums to $100 knowing that I wouldn't play.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
SlackJawYokel
SlackJawYokel
Joined: Jan 22, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 73
March 12th, 2014 at 3:00:36 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

.. and it seems like it may be harder to count at this game because of the cards dealt down..


Do you think this game is beatable and countable.?



The game is playable and dealing it down will not effect you because you will see all the cards anyway. Depending on the dealer the penetration is fair as you may have seen they use a tab on the discard tray for the cut card. Some dealers are more liberal with this than others.

My advice is to stay away from this game until you know exactly what you are doing. You can lose a lot of money very quickly playing this game. When I started I thought that I was 100 percent accurate in count, knew all index plays ect..... I was wrong but learned my lessons at a full $15 dollar table spreading 1-5 until things slowed down. The $15 game you are able to enter mid shoe so as to maximize your profits. Once you are accurate you can try to make money at this but until you are 100% you will still be playing a losing game.

I recommend the same as everyone else:
1. Know basic strategy
2. Invest in some software and know how to use it.
3. get a green chip membership and mine old posts for excellent information.
4. use a level one count when starting
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
March 12th, 2014 at 4:13:37 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?

(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..



I think that $15 to $400 should be doable, if you do it right.

But, honestly, you should be fine with a $25 "minimum bet", because, really, your actual minimum bet should be 0. If playing shoe games, you need to wong out aggressively.

I would prefer a higher max than $400 though. Note than 2x$300 has about the same bankroll requirements as 1 hand of $400. (I'm not sure if you meant that you would play 1x$400 or 2x$200 when you referred to your "$400 max bet).
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 13th, 2014 at 8:49:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think that $15 to $400 should be doable, if you do it right.

But, honestly, you should be fine with a $25 "minimum bet", because, really, your actual minimum bet should be 0. If playing shoe games, you need to wong out aggressively.

I would prefer a higher max than $400 though. Note than 2x$300 has about the same bankroll requirements as 1 hand of $400. (I'm not sure if you meant that you would play 1x$400 or 2x$200 when you referred to your "$400 max bet).



I don't know a $15 -$400 is a pretty ballzy spread 1-26..thats sure to catch attention from the pit..don't you think? Maybe if i'm playing 2 hands at $200 a piece..it wouldnt be as bad...
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 3938
March 14th, 2014 at 8:58:39 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I don't know a $15 -$400 is a pretty ballzy spread 1-26..thats sure to catch attention from the pit..don't you think? Maybe if i'm playing 2 hands at $200 a piece..it wouldnt be as bad...


It all just depends on what you can get away with. You will find that at some places, it's busy or the pit is distracted and the dealer couldn't give two shakes, so you can spread to whatever you want and then GTFO at the end of the shoe. If you sit there for 2 hours, eventually someone is going to take notice.

Short sessions are the name of the game these days, when it comes to basic card counting... Get the big money down when you have the edge and move on to the next joint before they know what's going on.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 14th, 2014 at 9:13:41 AM permalink
Ok, so just played my 1st real practice session (really 2nd session, but first session was not even a full shoe..got annoyed by the smoke and got up).. played roughly 1 to 1 1/2 hours.. played 3 shoes from start to finish..actually wonged out the last shoe with 1 and half decks remaining due to a extremely low negative count.. penetration was unbelievable..85-90% on all 3 shoes! $10 min table.. bet the min 90% of the hands..but when the count got up to around +10 +11 +12 even +14 +15 on some rounds..Towards the end of the 2nd shoe i played..i was betting $30 and $40..

I went into this session with the mindset of keeping a min bet regardless of the count because its for practice purposes.. but i couldnt resist spreading once the count got that high.. i didnt do too bad (even though I know this is just a short term win and cannot expect the same results all the time)... I profited $140 for the session with a $200 buy in.. i pocketed $125 in green chips in between the 2nd and 3rd shoe.. but I think the dealer took notice and alerted the pit.. the pit came by to glance at my chip stack..and mumbled something like ok he pocketed..then typed something in the computer.. i could be paranoid - but that is what it seemed like...

I lost the count a few times.. using the hi-lo count.. but wasnt off by much when i picked it back up using my last known number... You really have to have a good attention span..its very hard to keep a count... but i dont think i did too bad.. i was trying to block out eveyting else.. and just stay focused on the count... it was a little hard with this moron to the right of me who kept slamming the table everytime he lost and was verbally complaining eveytime he lost.. all in all it was a fun experience.. i def have to study the index plays however... I do know some experienced counters posted saying I should prob use the KO count as it might be easier..but I felt pretty comfortable using the Hi/Lo count.. the division of the remaining decks into the running count to get the true count.... comes natural for me..wasnt that hard..

Looking forward to my next practice session..

  • Jump to: