AxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?
in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..
The OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
I did not see this in the thread. I would ask the OP to confirm it. I'd like to point out I have been urging the OP to not risk any of his bankroll at this point because of how unwise it would be to count without knowing how. However, if this statement is true, the OP does not have a bankroll. You absolutely cannot invest retirement and credit into a venture like this. Card counting would just be the excuse to fuel a gambling problem. You either have to grind out a tiny profit and put it directly into your ever increasing bankroll like I did, or you need to save up a bankroll before starting, like I think most people do.
So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No gamble.. no future!
I thought you said you were a highly successful poker player?
Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?
So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer?
No, you are not guaranteed.....
I think a lot of the people who claim they have a 'bankroll' of $xx really do not.
(not of those people, as it would be a waste of my time seeking advice on a fictitious bankroll)
I am guessing if you are unlucky enough to lose your liquid cash, then at that point you would re-evaluate the situation and opt NOT to access your retirement savings. At the point you have already lost the first $20k your risk of ruin for your retirement savings will have gone up substantially if you will be betting the same amounts.... and if you choose to halve your bets, then you r expected hourly wages will be halved as well, possibly not even making it worth your while....
To me one of the hardest parts to this equation, are you willing to sit at a table for the necessary hours NOT tipping?
(yes - I am as tight and cheap as they come -)
If you are dropping a red for the dealers and a few whites for the cocktail waitresses, have you factored those costs into the equation?
(no because I won't be tipping, and if I do it will be once in a blue moon with a bare minimum of $1 per dealer per playing session - hardly an expense that will significantly impact playing results) (I don't order drinks at a casino, I bring my own) (on the few occasions where I do order a drink, I tip from my pocket and not from my chips on the table as I don't want to skew my playing results as I keep logs of my poker play and will do the same for blackjack.)
You don't have to (they are your chips; you can leave with them if you want), but what are you trying to accomplish by not coloring up?
Well I am trying to accomplish...