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AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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March 14th, 2014 at 6:17:59 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

AxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?



Sorry for the late reply.

Cover is a non-optimal play that people make to throw the casino off the scent. The problem is, most people are way to paranoid and employ way too much of it. The fact that it's non-optimal means that it eats into your earnings. If you were not being watched anyway it has the same effect as flushing money down the toilet, which I don't recommend.

The point is, you are not James Bond and this is not a bad spy movie. There is not an army of surveillance guys and pit personnel looking to find you and expose you. Just play as well as you can. When the count is good, bet big. When it it neutral, bet small. When it is bad, leave.

Quote:

in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..



IMO this is a crazy amount of risk to take on, especially since you mentioned that this is basically more than all the money you have (it's all your retirement money, plus some loans that you have no way of paying back if you lose)
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
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March 15th, 2014 at 1:18:24 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

The OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.

OP should not be playing blackjack.



I did not see this in the thread. I would ask the OP to confirm it. I'd like to point out I have been urging the OP to not risk any of his bankroll at this point because of how unwise it would be to count without knowing how. However, if this statement is true, the OP does not have a bankroll. You absolutely cannot invest retirement and credit into a venture like this. Card counting would just be the excuse to fuel a gambling problem. You either have to grind out a tiny profit and put it directly into your ever increasing bankroll like I did, or you need to save up a bankroll before starting, like I think most people do.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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March 15th, 2014 at 2:12:11 AM permalink
My random thought was that the table-pounder to your right could be considered your best friend, as he would attract the main attention of the pit or dealer for most of the shoe. Nice to go quietly along winning without notice.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
stabworld
stabworld
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March 15th, 2014 at 3:24:00 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

I did not see this in the thread. I would ask the OP to confirm it. I'd like to point out I have been urging the OP to not risk any of his bankroll at this point because of how unwise it would be to count without knowing how. However, if this statement is true, the OP does not have a bankroll. You absolutely cannot invest retirement and credit into a venture like this. Card counting would just be the excuse to fuel a gambling problem. You either have to grind out a tiny profit and put it directly into your ever increasing bankroll like I did, or you need to save up a bankroll before starting, like I think most people do.



Yes, It is true - my 47k bankroll consists of -

1. 20k liquid cash in my checking account..gathered from a 0% balance transfer, which I won't have to pay back for 15 months
2. 27k tied up in a ROTH IRA invested in mutual funds and emerging market funds

I estimated my 27K in the ROTH IRA down to 20k to allow for bad market fluctuations but it could very well be a 35K accessible bankroll if the market has run good.

The money in the retirement fund is a backup bankroll if my 20K liquid cash runs out due to variance. I surely would not like to have to touch this money. I know this is not the most responsible way to build a bankroll - but due to my good credit and high credit limit - I utilized this strategy to build a decent size bankroll to allow myself the opportunity to make money counting cards. I'm looking at this as a business investment and not an excuse to gamble..

I don't see the difference between funding a blackjack bankroll in the way I have or simply having discretionary money to skew the results of or the outcome of a card counters career. Money is money regardless of how it is obtained. If math tells me that if I play perfect blackjack by playing all the indexes and counting to perfection with little or no errors, using the right spreads.. and sizing my bets to maintain a low rate of ruin..Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?

So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No Gamble.. No Future!

Thoughts? Feedback?
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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March 15th, 2014 at 3:29:14 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No gamble.. no future!


I thought you said you were a highly successful poker player?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
stabworld
stabworld
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March 15th, 2014 at 3:31:25 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

I thought you said you were a highly successful poker player?



Indeed I am. My poker playing..pays my bills.. I am not looking to count cards.. to pay bills as that is already taken care of through my poker playing...but rather to earn additional money to save for house, car, larger savings..etc...etc..

sidenote (I didn't use the exact words as you put it "highly successful poker player" that's a bit exaggerated making it sound like I'm full of my self or cocky.. which is not me .. I am very humbled and don't think I am better than anybody else..."
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 15th, 2014 at 5:29:07 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?

So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer?



No, you are not guaranteed.....

I think a lot of the people who claim they have a 'bankroll' of $xx really do not.
I am guessing if you are unlucky enough to lose your liquid cash, then at that point you would re-evaluate the situation and opt NOT to access your retirement savings. At the point you have already lost the first $20k your risk of ruin for your retirement savings will have gone up substantially if you will be betting the same amounts.... and if you choose to halve your bets, then your expected hourly wages will be halved as well, possibly not even making it worth your while....

To me one of the hardest parts to this equation, are you willing to sit at a table for the necessary hours NOT tipping? If you are dropping a red for the dealers and a few whites for the cocktail waitresses, have you factored those costs into the equation?
stabworld
stabworld
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March 15th, 2014 at 5:36:07 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

No, you are not guaranteed.....

I think a lot of the people who claim they have a 'bankroll' of $xx really do not.

(not of those people, as it would be a waste of my time seeking advice on a fictitious bankroll)


I am guessing if you are unlucky enough to lose your liquid cash, then at that point you would re-evaluate the situation and opt NOT to access your retirement savings. At the point you have already lost the first $20k your risk of ruin for your retirement savings will have gone up substantially if you will be betting the same amounts.... and if you choose to halve your bets, then you r expected hourly wages will be halved as well, possibly not even making it worth your while....

To me one of the hardest parts to this equation, are you willing to sit at a table for the necessary hours NOT tipping?

(yes - I am as tight and cheap as they come -)

If you are dropping a red for the dealers and a few whites for the cocktail waitresses, have you factored those costs into the equation?


(no because I won't be tipping, and if I do it will be once in a blue moon with a bare minimum of $1 per dealer per playing session - hardly an expense that will significantly impact playing results) (I don't order drinks at a casino, I bring my own) (on the few occasions where I do order a drink, I tip from my pocket and not from my chips on the table as I don't want to skew my playing results as I keep logs of my poker play and will do the same for blackjack.)

stabworld
stabworld
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March 15th, 2014 at 8:02:15 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You don't have to (they are your chips; you can leave with them if you want), but what are you trying to accomplish by not coloring up?



Well I am trying to accomplish - the pit not recording my wins - as this will be a tell tell sign over time that I am counting. Many Hours of play combined with a win rate is indicative of counting.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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March 15th, 2014 at 8:12:50 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Well I am trying to accomplish...


Do you really gamble for a living? Based on some of the things you've said, it doesn't sound like it (although I could be wrong, of course).
Fighting BS one post at a time!

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