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AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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March 15th, 2014 at 6:18:15 PM permalink
You generally have to make minimum payments on the borrowed money. If you are late on one, the rate usually reverts to the normal ridiculous credit card rate.
wudged
wudged
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March 15th, 2014 at 8:30:45 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights


Well he said it was a "balance transfer," so I don't know how that translates to cash (perhaps the OP can comment, if he would like). A lot of cards offer 0% balance transfers when you sign up as a promotional thing. So I guess you could take out the cash advance on one card, and transfer it over immediately. You would usually pay an up-front fee on the cash advance on the first card though, regardless of the APR.



I have a credit card through a credit union that allows me to take cash advances with no fee (but there is interest accrued starting immediately - no grace period like purchases.) I can apply payments to it (such as with a 0% balance transfer offer) to make a negative balance, then as soon at the payment clears take a cash advance against that negative balance. No cash advance fee and also no interest since the balance was never positive. The only fee involved is sometimes a 3% or so balance transfer fee for the 0% card; sometimes you can get lucky and even find $0 fee 0% offers.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
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March 16th, 2014 at 7:48:43 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Yes, It is true - my 47k bankroll consists of -

1. 20k liquid cash in my checking account..gathered from a 0% balance transfer, which I won't have to pay back for 15 months
2. 27k tied up in a ROTH IRA invested in mutual funds and emerging market funds

I estimated my 27K in the ROTH IRA down to 20k to allow for bad market fluctuations but it could very well be a 35K accessible bankroll if the market has run good.

The money in the retirement fund is a backup bankroll if my 20K liquid cash runs out due to variance. I surely would not like to have to touch this money. I know this is not the most responsible way to build a bankroll - but due to my good credit and high credit limit - I utilized this strategy to build a decent size bankroll to allow myself the opportunity to make money counting cards. I'm looking at this as a business investment and not an excuse to gamble..

I don't see the difference between funding a blackjack bankroll in the way I have or simply having discretionary money to skew the results of or the outcome of a card counters career. Money is money regardless of how it is obtained. If math tells me that if I play perfect blackjack by playing all the indexes and counting to perfection with little or no errors, using the right spreads.. and sizing my bets to maintain a low rate of ruin..Aren't I guaranteed to earn a certain amount of money once standard deviation plays itself out long term? Isn't this what math tells me?

So why would I be worried about not being able to pay back the balance transfer? Other than the small percentage of the chance of going bankrupt (rate of ruin). I think that is pretty good odds. Life is full of risks and gambles anyhow, the better the odds, the better for you. No Gamble.. No Future!

Thoughts? Feedback?



Thoughts and feedback:

1) Your bankroll is $0.

2) You didn't build a bankroll. You are borrowing money to take to a casino. Anyone can get a promotional 0% APR balance transfer. I use them to pay off anything, in full, that would otherwise accrue interest in an amount greater than the fee over the promotional time period. They are not investment instruments or loans, this is a flagrant abuse..this is similar to what I recently talked a card-counting non-AP out of doing, which was easy, because he had already ruined his credit. I don't have a 20K IRA, but if I did--I guess I shouldn't judge that part. And with almost zero knowledge of card counting, you estimate there is a 2% chance you won't be able to pay it back (i.e. bankruptcy). I estimate up to 40%, and very realistically probably 20%. 1% is too high for this type of 'bankroll'. You must be able to afford to lose your entire bankroll. If you are willing to risk bankruptcy, there are no tax issues or legal issues, then perhaps you are making a life decision that you need to make--if that's the case, no one really has the perspective to give good advice. Just seems like you aren't in that type of situation, since you aren't a blackjack expert. I'm not a medical doctor--if I wanted to open my own medical practice, people may advise against it.

3) You are not guaranteed any amount of earnings over any duration. Long term? It sounds nebulous because it is.

I wish you the best and I am not trying to be a jerk. I don't wanna hear about someone ruining their life trying to count cards. Ultimately, you can do whatever you want. And people can give you whatever advice they want, and I'm not going to debate them. I just want to make it clear. I do not recommend this at all.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:27:40 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.

Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.



AcesandEights - Thank you for clarifying this and saving me the typing of having to explain.
stabworld
stabworld
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:30:40 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

I might be wrong, and I apologize to Stab if I am, but it sounds to me like either he is not a winning poker player or is just running awful. People who are winning steadily at poker don't just randomly want to take up new and highly risky things that often. I mean using 40k feels to me that there's a big number he lost that he wants to get back.



Lemieux66 - You are wrong and making an assumption based on I don't know what. But, I have netted a significant sum over the last few years playing poker and have been running extremely well over the last few months. The reason why I am trying to take up a new venture is explained in my previous posts.
stabworld
stabworld
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:32:39 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

Then you're really missing something.



and that is?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:36:07 AM permalink
Not being silly here.... do you have health insurance?
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:37:47 AM permalink
Quote: ComplexEnigma

Quote: AcesAndEights

I agree that this is a bad idea, but if you go back to his post, there are a couple details that you missed. The cash is 0% for 15 months, which is a good long time. And the retirement money is a Roth IRA account. With Roths, you can withdraw your contributions (not their earnings or any gains) totally tax-free. So it is not a loan that has to pay back to himself, and he won't have to pay taxes or penalties. This is a unique function of Roth IRAs that is totally different from traditional IRAs or 401(k) accounts, since you have already paid tax on the contributions. The earnings are the part that are tax-free. Reference: first bullet under Advantages on Wikipedia.

Now, the stated goal of that account is to save for retirement. So it should still be a last-ditch fallback option.



Man I want $20,000 at 0% for 15 months. Stick it in a CD for a free $500. I'm not in with banking industry but I don't know why anyone would offer $20,000 cash loan for 0% for 15 months. After inflation the bank is taking a loss.



There is an upfront 4% transfer balance fee - so instead of owing $20,000 in 15 months - I will owe $20,800. The fee's usually vary from 0%-6%. The credit card company's are betting on that you dont pay the loan back on time - so they can hit you with ridiculously high APR interest rates.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:41:47 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not being silly here.... do you have health insurance?



Ok - Let me just say I appreciate all feedback and comments from everybody - especially those who have been giving me solid advice with betting spreads - table limits - rate of ruin etc. What is starting to bother me is that this thread has turned into my personal life story and how my bankroll was funded? -

I started this thread - to get advice on a good bet spread - table min - max bet - rate of ruin for my bankroll. Can we please stick to that? Thanks everyone!

I will answer the last question that is not pertaining to blackjack table situations - I have VA health insurance - as I am a veteran.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 7:54:05 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Thoughts and feedback:

1) Your bankroll is $0.

2) You didn't build a bankroll. You are borrowing money to take to a casino. Anyone can get a promotional 0% APR balance transfer. I use them to pay off anything, in full, that would otherwise accrue interest in an amount greater than the fee over the promotional time period. They are not investment instruments or loans, this is a flagrant abuse..this is similar to what I recently talked a card-counting non-AP out of doing, which was easy, because he had already ruined his credit. I don't have a 20K IRA, but if I did--I guess I shouldn't judge that part. And with almost zero knowledge of card counting, you estimate there is a 2% chance you won't be able to pay it back (i.e. bankruptcy). I estimate up to 40%, and very realistically probably 20%. 1% is too high for this type of 'bankroll'. You must be able to afford to lose your entire bankroll. If you are willing to risk bankruptcy, there are no tax issues or legal issues, then perhaps you are making a life decision that you need to make--if that's the case, no one really has the perspective to give good advice. Just seems like you aren't in that type of situation, since you aren't a blackjack expert. I'm not a medical doctor--if I wanted to open my own medical practice, people may advise against it.

3) You are not guaranteed any amount of earnings over any duration. Long term? It sounds nebulous because it is.

I wish you the best and I am not trying to be a jerk. I don't wanna hear about someone ruining their life trying to count cards. Ultimately, you can do whatever you want. And people can give you whatever advice they want, and I'm not going to debate them. I just want to make it clear. I do not recommend this at all.



Sonuvabish - I hear what your saying. I still am not sure how you get a 40% - 20% rate of ruin? With a 40,000 bankroll - a min $25 bet - and $400 max bet - how can this be? Using the calculators - it is telling me around 2% risk of ruin. Remember - I will not be playing these limits until I have almost mastered card counting. I am currently in the practice mode. I am practicing at home - timing myself counting down a deck - 1 card at a time - 2 card pairs at a time - and will do 3 cards at a time soon. I am slowly but surely getting my feet wet at the tables playing a min bet of $10 and not deviating from that $10 bet - unless the true count gets above +12 where I am going up to $20 - $30 $40. I am currently studying the indexes.

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