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stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:09:05 PM permalink
Hello card counters,

I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.

So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.

What do you all think?

Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
sodawater
sodawater
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:12:09 PM permalink
My advice -- stick to poker. Edges are a lot bigger and the casinos don't care if you win at poker. Card counting blackjack is a tough way to make a living.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:18:42 PM permalink
Appreciate the reply. I do realize counting is a tough living - but so is poker in my experience. I'm looking to try something new. Would you have any advice for me concerning my proposed unit bet and table spread from my above post? Thanks..
1BB
1BB
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:23:51 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Hello card counters,

I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.

So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.

What do you all think?

Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!



Tell us the rules of the games and the count you are using. Are you wonging and/or using index play?

While we wait for that, the 40k is borderline for a 1-16 spread on the 8 deck game and a 1-8 spread on the double deck. I hope you'll say that you wong when possible and have learned at least the basic index plays.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:29:20 PM permalink
Also, a big factor would be the penetration of the games you are referencing. Penetration is by far the most important aspect of game evaluation for a card counter.
Kickass
Kickass
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:37:34 PM permalink
Where are you located? LV or somewhere else?

Do you want to maximize your profit in a short-time? Or you want to optimize the total profit in a long period.

Simple advice will be to avoid the $50 table because I already know that you are over-betting your bankroll without even punching in the numbers.

More importantly, do you have the personality to handle the loss, which can last for months?
Leave Katie alone. Rasul: Or what? Or I come back and break your F** legs
stabworld
stabworld
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:49:53 PM permalink
Rules of game -

-(8 deck game)
-between 60-75% penetration
-blackjack pays 3-2
-doubling allowed on any first 2 cards
-doubling after split allowed (except aces)
-dealer stands on all 17's
-can split any pair (up to 4 times) except aces
-late surrender allowed

-(2 deck game)
- not sure of all these rules yet but I know
-stand on all 17
-late surrender offered

I would not be wonging in or backcounting - but would leave table if negative count gets too high towards end of shoe.
As far as indexing - that's new to me but most likely would utilize that strategy.
I would be using the HI-Lo count initially -(as this is the count I have been practicing and familiar with)
stabworld
stabworld
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:53:17 PM permalink
I am located in New York - and frequent Foxwoods a lot - I go there 3 days a week (to play poker) - Mohegan Sun is right next door - and I also visit Sands in PA on Mondays (to play poker tournaments)..

I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 10th, 2014 at 5:11:40 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Hello card counters,

I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.

So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.

What do you all think?

Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!



In my opinion:

1. Wong out aggressively to increase your win rate.

2. You need a higher max bet to make any real money. With a $250 max bet on an 8-deck game you are not making very much. IMO, you need to be willing to go up to $500 at the very least before blackjack is worthwhile (unless you have non-counting ways to get larger edges).

3a. You need a bigger bankroll (see #2).

3b. Always remember that playing 2 hands of half the size reduces variance but leaves your edge the same. eg, 2x$250 has the same edge as a $500 hand but only has the bankroll requirements of a $350 or $400 hand.

3c. Why are you comfortable with a 2% risk of ruin? 2% is not that unlikely. If I was making a living off of this, a 2% risk of ruin would scare the hell out of me.

4. Cover is overrated. This is controversial and many people who make a living doing this, and have a lot more experience than I do, disagree, so I accept that I may be wrong. It's still my opinion, though.
1BB
1BB
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March 10th, 2014 at 5:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I am located in New York - and frequent Foxwoods a lot - I go there 3 days a week (to play poker) - Mohegan Sun is right next door - and I also visit Sands in PA on Mondays (to play poker tournaments)..

I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.



The rules you gave were for Sands and not Foxwoods. Am I right?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi

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