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Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
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March 10th, 2014 at 9:02:29 PM permalink
Make sure you have a tolerance for cigarette smoke. Even in the non-smoking areas the air quality isn't nearly as good as in the poker room. Oh and you WILL be playing by smokers if the penetration is good so be ready for that.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Kickass
Kickass
Joined: Nov 12, 2013
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March 10th, 2014 at 11:30:13 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I'm thinking $25 min bet .1-16 spread...? $25- $400 max bet.



Again, you are over-betting your bankroll. Can you find $10 or $15 game with the similar rules?
Remember that the fluctuation in blackjack is huge.
Leave Katie alone. Rasul: Or what? Or I come back and break your F** legs
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 11th, 2014 at 3:44:29 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Make sure you have a tolerance for cigarette smoke. Even in the non-smoking areas the air quality isn't nearly as good as in the poker room. Oh and you WILL be playing by smokers if the penetration is good so be ready for that.

Perhaps this is a good excuse to use: become some petulant smoke-hater who argues about smoking rather than betting near the end of a shoe. And just happens to have the smoke most bother him at negative shoes.

I do not see why this is overbetting his bankroll. Too great a chance of initial loss?
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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March 11th, 2014 at 4:56:45 AM permalink
I do not consider a $400 top bet to be over betting with a bankroll of 40k. Without simming all the details, it falls into the 100 max bet rule of thumb or the 1% used by many advantage players. I don't have a problem with it.

For a variety of reasons, I don't think you can make a living at blackjack playing solely in Connecticut. To have any longevity at all you will have to travel to avoid heat and to seek better games.

Although the Foxwoods 8 deck game is beatable, I feel that it would take considerably more than a 1-16 spread to realize any appreciable profit and that brings us back to longevity.

I don't think straight counting is enough these days. Today's counter must be flexible and willing to explore other AP opportunities.

Now for the boring things that many want to pass over in their rush to the tables to apply their new found skills. This is where I ask everyone to pump the brakes just a little. Learn basic strategy cold. Most swear that they know it and they may even think that they know it. They do not. Knowing 90% or 95% will not cut it. If the commitment cannot be made to learn this simple first step, there is no need to continue.

Basic strategy is not one size fits all. Learn the strategy for the games you are going to play. If you are considering Foxwoods, for example, there are six basic strategy changes for H17. They are important. Do not sit at a table until you know them. It is perfectly acceptable to print out a strategy card to bring to the table as long as you don't slow the game down or cause any other disruptions.

Learn index play and wonging. Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4. They are all the play variations you will need for now. Avoid playing in negative shoes as much as possible.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
arcticfun
arcticfun
Joined: Oct 2, 2013
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March 11th, 2014 at 6:39:39 AM permalink
I agree with 1BB -- $400 is aggressive but certainly playable at a $40k bankroll.

My thoughts are: play at Mohegan rather than Foxwoods (favorable grandfather laws, 6D instead of 8, S17 instead of H17, nicer in general, all at the expense of an additional 5-10% penetration at Foxwoods); play head-to-head when possible (when off-peak ask for the $10 tables to be bumped to $25 and play that), and also consider the $50 table if you care about status and points. Red-chip at first if you want to practice, but move quickly to green/black because the gains would otherwise be way too slow.

Playing everyday 8h a day in the same place -- even a monstrously large casino like Mohegan -- is probably too risky. Take breaks, ranging from hours to weeks long, and be aware of pit critters hovering above your table or around the phone. At MS, I've found that the place is so busy and the pit bosses have so much to do that you won't get undue attention unless in the black/purple betting range.
SlackJawYokel
SlackJawYokel
Joined: Jan 22, 2012
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March 11th, 2014 at 7:34:58 AM permalink
I play the Sands PA game often. It is dealer pitch double deck and I have never seen it below $50. They only had a few tables of this game but recently added a few more so you can generally get on a table alone or with one other person. If you want more information let me know.

Slack
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
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March 11th, 2014 at 3:54:51 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Hello card counters,

I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.

So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.

What do you all think?

Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!



In my experience, 80% of all players think they are better strategists than I am because gamblers leave their common sense in their car, sometimes with their small children. So my advice is to learn perfect basic strategy for your particular game as well as you know how to drive or ride a bike. Afterwards, you can begin counting at a table. During the initial phase, your maximum bet should be the table minimum. When you are counting for real, your maximum bet should be no more than double the table minimum.
I also disagree with a couple posters here. The Illustrious 18 is enough to get started, and it's a good ranking of order to learn indices in, but you must learn more. Additionally, 400 max is much too large for 40K unless you are maxing betting proportionally to the count and maxing at ultra-high counts.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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March 11th, 2014 at 3:59:20 PM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

When you are counting for real, your maximum bet should be no more than double the table minimum.



Huh?
CoolMike
CoolMike
Joined: Aug 25, 2010
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March 11th, 2014 at 4:04:01 PM permalink
A few hints for you in order of importance in my opinion.

1. Start off with the KO count. This is described in the 'KO Blackjack' book by as well as 'The Color of Blackjack'. The index plays are easier for this count. There is no true count conversion needed. A basic bet ramp is discussed that works really well. With this count and 10 hours or so of practice you should be able to hit the casino and have an edge from your very first day of playing. Learn the index plays in order of importance, starting with insurance and 10v6 and move down the list. Start with 5-6 of the regular index plays and 1-2 of the surrender index plays and leave it at that. Add a few plays over the next few weeks until you have at least the illustrious 18 and the fab 4 surrender plays memorized. I promise you will be happier with the KO count than starting off with Hi-Lo. The first 3-5 sessions with hi-lo in a real casino are exhausting in my experience. With one less step to decide on betting and playing decisions you will find you can play quickly and accurately with KO.

2. For an 8 deck game you will need to spread pretty aggressively. 1-12 would be a good start: less than that will make your win rate relative to blackjack's variance too small for comfort. With your bankroll and ROR needs I don't think you can have a 25$ minimum bet yet for the 8 deck game, although I think you are getting close to being able to play 25$ min 8 deck shoes. A 10 dollar min would be better especially as your first few weeks of play will be a roller coaster ride.

3. Buy a subscription to BJ21 green chip. Read all of the posts of the month. Use the search feature a lot. Don't expect tons of free info in the form of replies to your posts, but mine the site for info.

4. You may want to use one of the sim programs on the market to optimize your betting ramp, and more importantly, to calculate your true ROR by sim. Be aware that if expenses are taken out of your bankroll your ROR increases significantly. Norm's CVCX program will help you greatly in this regard. CV blackjack is good for practice as well.

Good luck. Keep your eyes open for additional advantages on your travels. Always check for dealer miss pays! Have fun :)
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
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March 11th, 2014 at 4:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Huh?



I am saying I suspect he does not know perfect basic strategy, and based on his questions and inclination to attack a 60% pen 8-deck, also has no experience counting. I know a counter who thinks he's APing it, but plays with a 70% ROR everytime he walks thru the door--I pointed him to the best game in the state, he would rather play a different one. I tell him it's pointless to count if he doesn't learn basic strategy, and he forgets to figure the cut-off decks into his true count calculation then hits a 14 against a 4. By playing without an advantage, he can cut into the advantage without cutting into himself, while also learning how it works on his own. You don't know what you are doing, you will bust yourself.

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