Gambling System Delusions
I have also seen this a lot on other parts of the internet. A casino youtuber I know is contacted by people daily who want him to try their "genius" betting systems. Someone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".
While some of these people are not low IQ, I think they all have an extremely inflated view of their own intelligence.
Recently I was reading about Jerusalem syndrome and I have to say I think there is a similarity between people who think they're the first to make a winning system against the casino and people who convince themselves they are a messiah. I also think that AI psychosis could a related phenomenon.
Anyways, has there been any study done on people who genuinely believe they have a winning system? I feel like understanding this delusion could further help us understand gambling addiction.
Also, has anyone found a way to convince people that their betting systems are faulty before they lose all their money?
(Obviously anyone doing comp-hustling, card-counting, or other mathematically legitimate advantage play does not fall into this category)
Quote: harrisMy friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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As you already noted, being smart does not offer much protection from this problem. Gambling, in itself, often presents as a vice. It appeals to the same instincts as all the other vices do. I believe the mathematically unsupportable betting systems are a way of cloaking one's vice with an illusion of reason.
Perhaps vices could be categorized by how compelled practitioners feel to hide it or to disguise it as something else. Smokers are usually proud of it; it's always been legal, they openly meet out back to smoke and admit they enjoy it. But even when potsmoking was illegal potsmokers were somewhat open about it too. People walked around with shirts with the marijuana leaf on it, paraphernalia was openly sold in storefronts. A working class guy who spends all night every night in a bar will admit he's a drunk, while an upper class housewife with alcoholism will deny it with her dying breath.
It may be that how your peer group (rather than the law or society at large) feels about the practice determines how motivated you are to camouflage it more than anything else. The smoker and the potsmoker have always had large enough social circles to practice with that they feel no shame and in the case of the pot (or the cigarettes, for underage people) the mild illegality of it just added to the camaraderie. The social stigma of gambling might be deeper than we know, as I don't know many people who will admit to going to a perfectly legal casino or other betting facility and placing a bet just for the thrill of risk per se. There has to be some other motivation attached to it, and the belief that you are putting some brilliant new betting system into play may be exactly the camouflage one needs to feel free of that stigma.
Quote: harrisMy friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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"The casino would kick you out if they were at all worried your system might work."
Quote: DieterQuote: harrisMy friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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"The casino would kick you out if they were at all worried your system might work."
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Usually they respond “my method is so smart that the casino will never catch me”
I saw one counter video and he was travelling across the state and got kicked out of two casinos I've been to inside of 20-60 minutes.
Quote: Vegaswinner(sanitized by mod)
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No cap.
Quote: Vegaswinner
Haven't I banned you before?
The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something
Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
Quote: ChumpChangeWorking on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
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I play that at least weekly. My Doctor recommended it after my stroke, and it really helps me concentrate. I briefly had this game as a kid and loved it. Back then, we didn't do penalty shots when you landed on Mercury.
Quote: harrisSomeone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".
I mean, someone could describe what I have done for the past 5 years in that manner if they didn't really understand it. It depends if the "system" involves bonuses and lossbacks and credit/debit card rewards or is more like "after three straight bankers, switch to player unless the burn card was a seven"
Quote: findingEVQuote: harrisSomeone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".
I mean, someone could describe what I have done for the past 5 years in that manner if they didn't really understand it. It depends if the "system" involves bonuses and lossbacks and credit/debit card rewards or is more like "after three straight bankers, switch to player unless the burn card was a seven"
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Yeah, I tried to make it clear in the post that people who are actually using math to make money from casinos are not included in this. Rather it’s the second group of people who think they have a special system, usually for Roulette, Baccarat, or Craps.
Quote: odiousgambitI think it is a very small percentage of the ones who promote a system who actually think it works. They are vastly more likely to be trying to victimize people
The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something
Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"
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If you look at the history of this forum, people who believe they are onto something are not silent about it at all 🤣
then those are promoting their system, hoping people PM them if nothing else... if it isn't plain promotionQuote: harrisQuote: odiousgambitI think it is a very small percentage of the ones who promote a system who actually think it works. They are vastly more likely to be trying to victimize people
The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something
Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"
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If you look at the history of this forum, people who believe they are onto something are not silent about it at all 🤣
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I guess in both cases, they were slightly talking about real AP moves (taking advantage of free play and observing bad roulette wheels) while appealing to some faulty outside source (AI / "metaphysics"). I guess if you believe in Sinosphere-type metaphysics, then magical thinking can be a lot easier [see my thread on "religion and gambling" for more on this].
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyAs you already noted, being smart does not offer much protection from this problem. Gambling, in itself, often presents as a vice. It appeals to the same instincts as all the other vices do. I believe the mathematically unsupportable betting systems are a way of cloaking one's vice with an illusion of reason.
I think that being smart offers protection from this problem, but only if you are in the top 10% or so.
Outside of my colleagues in the casino industry, the smartest people I know never gamble unless they have an advantage (card counting or being really good at poker).
Otherwise I completely agree with your analysis.
I can relate to the idea of people making strange excuses to rationalize going to the casino - before I had a job in the casino industry I rationalized my behavior saying I was going to the casino to try different games and learn about the math, which probably sounded really stupid to those around me. Fortunately everything worked out, partly thanks to this forum ;) Even today I find it hard to rationalize my own gambling unless I am trying out a game I've never played before.
In other words, the bet-selection and the chip-progreasion are two different things!
A lot of the people you refer to as 'not low IQ', and that'sprobably true. But none of them have a clue that Skilled Bet Selection is absolutely viable - and at least 100 X's more important than a silly doubling of your bet every time you lose, and escalating up into abursd levels to try and get out of it - when you encounter a string of losing wagers because your bet-selection is absolutely random. That 'randomness' is where the problem lies, and is what makes them below amatuer level to begin with.
If your skilled and non 'law-of average' bet selection is yielding greater W's than L's, then the progresion need not ever get up into the ridiculous level's of wagering $64. or more to recover and win $1.
The true-pro site sanitized -D explains better if a deeper dive is in order.
Anyway, the reason they lose on a regular basis has little to nothing to do with the so-called 'house edge'.
I'll debate this further with anyone who doesn't give the usual cliches in response. TY.
Quote: ThunderClap99The true-pro site newtons coconut dot com explains better if a deeper dive is in order.link to original post
Stupid content aside, your website is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life, possibly beating out Time Cube
I am going to log off tonight in order to not get banned for personal insults.
Quote: ThunderClap99Wow! I'm sure that's true... I mean as far as what you said about 'your life'. Just shows what a uneventful, simpleton little life you have... 'Good Luck' as 'They' say dude... Thanks now.
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Have you ever heard the expression Fart waiting for the Wind?
Quote: ThunderClap99
The true-pro site sanitized -D explains better if a deeper dive is in order.
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I've sanitized your clever attempt to circumvent our anti-spam rules.
Unfortunately, These kiosk games don't give points
Quote: 100xOddsIf bored, play 0 ev/0 variance games.
Unfortunately, These kiosk games don't give points
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If you're talking about betting opposites, I have found machines don't allow that, even if they don't give points.
Quote: WizardQuote: 100xOddsIf bored, play 0 ev/0 variance games.
Unfortunately, These kiosk games don't give points
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If you're talking about betting opposites, I have found machines don't allow that, even if they don't give points.
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With multiple machines sharing one roulette wheel or one hand of baccarat, it can be done. Play two machines next to each other and bet on opposite sides.
Quote: ThunderClap99Wow! I'm sure that's true... I mean as far as what you said about 'your life'. Just shows what a uneventful, simpleton little life you have... 'Good Luck' as 'They' say dude... Thanks now.
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You are suspended from the WOV Forum for 3 days for a personal insult.
Please read our forum rules here Forum Rules
And, I've read your website and I have a very low opinion of what you are offering. Do not try to post another link to your website or try to use this forum for free advertising.
Quote: WizardQuote: 100xOddsIf bored, play 0 ev/0 variance games.
Unfortunately, These kiosk games don't give points
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If you're talking about betting opposites, I have found machines don't allow that, even if they don't give points.
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I was thinking bill changer machines. :)
$100 bill in, 20s out
$20 in, 5s out
Etc
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: WizardQuote: 100xOddsIf bored, play 0 ev/0 variance games.
Unfortunately, These kiosk games don't give points
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If you're talking about betting opposites, I have found machines don't allow that, even if they don't give points.
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I was thinking bill changer machines. :)
$100 bill in, 20s out
$20 in, 5s out
Etc
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You do have to insert your player club card and get a valid read to accrue points.
Quote: ChumpChangeWorking on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
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Speaking of shooting the moon, in college one of my roommates father was a professor at Iowa State university and he postulated that we should consider blowing up the moon as it would alleviate many natural disasters that occur on Earth.
Quote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWorking on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
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Speaking of shooting the moon, in college one of my roommates father was a professor at Iowa State university and he postulated that we should consider blowing up the moon as it would alleviate many natural disasters that occur on Earth.
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A legend
His theories make more sense than the Baccarat pattern-followers
Quote: odiousgambit2 -EV bets can cancel each other for zero EV?
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Sure, with enough volume of play.
You could also learn to avoid the come out 12 in craps.
In ez bacc, don't win with 567.
Simple, like dodging bullets in poker.
Tap into your zen and run inbetween the raindrops, Padawan
-Spock
I knew that eons ago. Only pick the winning bets. Sheesh. Easy
Quote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWorking on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
link to original post
Speaking of shooting the moon, in college one of my roommates father was a professor at Iowa State university and he postulated that we should consider blowing up the moon as it would alleviate many natural disasters that occur on Earth.
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Humans cause crime. Eliminate humans, and the crime rate will plummet.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRich
Speaking of shooting the moon, in college one of my roommates father was a professor at Iowa State university and he postulated that we should consider blowing up the moon as it would alleviate many natural disasters that occur on Earth.
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Humans cause crime. Eliminate humans, and the crime rate will plummet.
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If you have time, You don't have to spend all that energy & effort to eliminate them all... Just one of the genders.
Nature will take care of the rest.
Quote: harris
Stupid content aside, __________ is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life, possibly beating out Time Cube
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Shoutout to the mention of Time Cube. Haven’t heard mention of that site for years (decades?)
Quote: harris
(...) is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life, possibly beating out Time Cube
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At least the topology site https://cuberule.com explains that hotdogs are tacos and both poptarts and ravioli are calzones.
Quote: Marcky229yeah don't stress yourself out over random people on the internet. It's not worth it
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It says he has 5 posts but when I click, only shows 3.
What was he banned for
Quote: harris
Stupid content aside, your website is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life,
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Oh, my god, I love it... LOL... It's so nostalgic. It's what the internet looked like back in the '90s.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: harris
Stupid content aside, your website is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life,
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Oh, my god, I love it... LOL... It's so nostalgic. It's what the internet looked like back in the '90s.
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I would also claim that a college professor could teach an entire course on "Principles of Scamming" by using this one website as an illustration. Feast your eyes on these quotes from the website:
'Some Great News!
Yes we are still accepting applications for 'SRs' or Specialized Rescue's!"
"So there is really no need to have this witless debate here...
But the similarities between BJ and BAC end at
they both use standard deck's of traditional playing cards!
The ultimate truth is this:
Baccarat is NOTHING BUT MATH, ~ and actionable STRATEGY!
That is "IF" one knows where the true math lies,
and how to exploit it over time! "
Quote: gordonm888
I would also claim that a college professor could teach an entire course on "Principles of Scamming" by using this one website as an illustration. Feast your eyes on these quotes from the website:
One of the very first sentences near the top of the site claims a 100% return (or better!) within 30 days... LOL... that is quite literally textbook scam wording. The whole thing reads like some gambling fever dream.
Betting system believers are all the same, too. They're so consistent that I made a post here five years ago, "Characteristics of a Betting System Believer"
Quote: DieterQuote: harris
(...) is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life, possibly beating out Time Cube
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At least the topology site https://cuberule.com explains that hotdogs are tacos and both poptarts and ravioli are calzones.
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Fantastic! Next time my wife tells me to pick up some sushi for dinner I’m going to bring home pigs in a blanket.
Quote: TumblingBonesQuote: DieterQuote: harris
(...) is the worst-designed website I have ever seen in my life, possibly beating out Time Cube
link to original post
At least the topology site https://cuberule.com explains that hotdogs are tacos and both poptarts and ravioli are calzones.
link to original post
Fantastic! Next time my wife tells me to pick up some sushi for dinner I’m going to bring home pigs in a blanket.
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Quote: MichaelBluejayAs an anti-cult activist, it's been interesting to note that various cults are so surprisingly similar. Hippies on a farm in Texas (Zendik) are virtually indistinguishable from Manhattan intellectuals (Aesthetic Realism), in how they operate...
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Wow that's interesting! I happen to like Aesthetic Realism as an artistic and philosophical movement, and I even own a copy of "Hot Afternoons..." But I didn't realize it was also a cult. I don't think I'd like it very much as a cult.
Well, small world! My grandparents were among the original students (founding members) of the author / cult leader, Eli Siegel, and I had an AR lesson with him at age 2. All cults need a charismatic leader to draw people in, and as a formidable poet and literary critic, Siegel fit the bill. When he took his life in 1978 the group became a lot less interesting and began its slow decline, and it's nearly defunct now. They exist, but aren't really doing much of anything.Quote: AutomaticMonkeyWow that's interesting! I happen to like Aesthetic Realism as an artistic and philosophical movement, and I even own a copy of "Hot Afternoons..." But I didn't realize it was also a cult. I don't think I'd like it very much as a cult.
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