Gambling System Delusions

Something that comes up semi-often in this forum is a new member who believes they have found a way to beat the game of roulette, baccarat, or craps through "patterns". They insist that their system is way more complex and advanced than Martingale, and also not an easy way to earn quick money, and reject and evidence to the contrary.

I have also seen this a lot on other parts of the internet. A casino youtuber I know is contacted by people daily who want him to try their "genius" betting systems. Someone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".

While some of these people are not low IQ, I think they all have an extremely inflated view of their own intelligence.

Recently I was reading about Jerusalem syndrome and I have to say I think there is a similarity between people who think they're the first to make a winning system against the casino and people who convince themselves they are a messiah. I also think that AI psychosis could a related phenomenon.

Anyways, has there been any study done on people who genuinely believe they have a winning system? I feel like understanding this delusion could further help us understand gambling addiction.

Also, has anyone found a way to convince people that their betting systems are faulty before they lose all their money?

(Obviously anyone doing comp-hustling, card-counting, or other mathematically legitimate advantage play does not fall into this category)

Why would I try to convince someone they are delusional? If they are a friend, it's not worth our friendship, and if they are a random person on the internet, why not sit back and enjoy them?

My friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being

Quote: harris

My friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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As you already noted, being smart does not offer much protection from this problem. Gambling, in itself, often presents as a vice. It appeals to the same instincts as all the other vices do. I believe the mathematically unsupportable betting systems are a way of cloaking one's vice with an illusion of reason.

Perhaps vices could be categorized by how compelled practitioners feel to hide it or to disguise it as something else. Smokers are usually proud of it; it's always been legal, they openly meet out back to smoke and admit they enjoy it. But even when potsmoking was illegal potsmokers were somewhat open about it too. People walked around with shirts with the marijuana leaf on it, paraphernalia was openly sold in storefronts. A working class guy who spends all night every night in a bar will admit he's a drunk, while an upper class housewife with alcoholism will deny it with her dying breath.

It may be that how your peer group (rather than the law or society at large) feels about the practice determines how motivated you are to camouflage it more than anything else. The smoker and the potsmoker have always had large enough social circles to practice with that they feel no shame and in the case of the pot (or the cigarettes, for underage people) the mild illegality of it just added to the camaraderie. The social stigma of gambling might be deeper than we know, as I don't know many people who will admit to going to a perfectly legal casino or other betting facility and placing a bet just for the thrill of risk per se. There has to be some other motivation attached to it, and the belief that you are putting some brilliant new betting system into play may be exactly the camouflage one needs to feel free of that stigma.

Quote: harris

My friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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"The casino would kick you out if they were at all worried your system might work."

Quote: Dieter

Quote: harris

My friends are too smart for this but in the unlikely case that they had a relative in that situation, I would try to dissuade them for the sake of their family's financial well-being
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"The casino would kick you out if they were at all worried your system might work."
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Usually they respond “my method is so smart that the casino will never catch me”

Well, you've got to play a game that isn't a target of bouncers, like don't play Black Jack. But basically don't move your bets around like a card counter as seen on YouTube.

I saw one counter video and he was travelling across the state and got kicked out of two casinos I've been to inside of 20-60 minutes.

Quote: Vegaswinner

(sanitized by mod)
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No cap.

Quote: Vegaswinner

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Haven't I banned you before?

I think it is a very small percentage of the ones who promote a system who actually think it works. They are vastly more likely to be trying to victimize people

The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something

Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"

Working on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K

Quote: ChumpChange

Working on my new betting strategy. Loses 250 points for landing on Mercury. Shoot The Moon!
https://www.amazon.com/Shoot-Moon-Game-Balancing-Relatable/dp/B0CTKSCS3K
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I play that at least weekly. My Doctor recommended it after my stroke, and it really helps me concentrate. I briefly had this game as a kid and loved it. Back then, we didn't do penalty shots when you landed on Mercury.

Quote: harris

Someone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".

I mean, someone could describe what I have done for the past 5 years in that manner if they didn't really understand it. It depends if the "system" involves bonuses and lossbacks and credit/debit card rewards or is more like "after three straight bankers, switch to player unless the burn card was a seven"

Quote: findingEV

Quote: harris

Someone on Discord just told me their ex quit their job to play baccarat full-time because they had invented a "system".

I mean, someone could describe what I have done for the past 5 years in that manner if they didn't really understand it. It depends if the "system" involves bonuses and lossbacks and credit/debit card rewards or is more like "after three straight bankers, switch to player unless the burn card was a seven"
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Yeah, I tried to make it clear in the post that people who are actually using math to make money from casinos are not included in this. Rather it’s the second group of people who think they have a special system, usually for Roulette, Baccarat, or Craps.

Quote: odiousgambit

I think it is a very small percentage of the ones who promote a system who actually think it works. They are vastly more likely to be trying to victimize people

The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something

Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"
link to original post

If you look at the history of this forum, people who believe they are onto something are not silent about it at all 🤣

Quote: harris

Quote: odiousgambit

I think it is a very small percentage of the ones who promote a system who actually think it works. They are vastly more likely to be trying to victimize people

The ones who silently go about trying to make a system work are the ones who believe they are on to something

Then there are the ones Mission talked about, paraphrasing, " vast numbers aren't trying to win ... they just hope they are on to something that will let them keep playing"
link to original post

If you look at the history of this forum, people who believe they are onto something are not silent about it at all 🤣
link to original post

then those are promoting their system, hoping people PM them if nothing else... if it isn't plain promotion

We just had two people in this forum, one with a Korean metaphysics roulette system and the other what an video poker martingale system validated by AI. Neither was trying to sell their system, rather they wanted validation that they're super smart.

I guess in both cases, they were slightly talking about real AP moves (taking advantage of free play and observing bad roulette wheels) while appealing to some faulty outside source (AI / "metaphysics"). I guess if you believe in Sinosphere-type metaphysics, then magical thinking can be a lot easier [see my thread on "religion and gambling" for more on this].

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

As you already noted, being smart does not offer much protection from this problem. Gambling, in itself, often presents as a vice. It appeals to the same instincts as all the other vices do. I believe the mathematically unsupportable betting systems are a way of cloaking one's vice with an illusion of reason.

I think that being smart offers protection from this problem, but only if you are in the top 10% or so.
Outside of my colleagues in the casino industry, the smartest people I know never gamble unless they have an advantage (card counting or being really good at poker).

Otherwise I completely agree with your analysis.

I can relate to the idea of people making strange excuses to rationalize going to the casino - before I had a job in the casino industry I rationalized my behavior saying I was going to the casino to try different games and learn about the math, which probably sounded really stupid to those around me. Fortunately everything worked out, partly thanks to this forum ;) Even today I find it hard to rationalize my own gambling unless I am trying out a game I've never played before.