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geoff
geoff
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:25:06 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Sonuvabish - I hear what your saying. I still am not sure how you get a 40% - 20% rate of ruin? With a 40,000 bankroll - a min $25 bet - and $400 max bet - how can this be? Using the calculators - it is telling me around 2% risk of ruin. Remember - I will not be playing these limits until I have almost mastered card counting. I am currently in the practice mode. I am practicing at home - timing myself counting down a deck - 1 card at a time - 2 card pairs at a time - and will do 3 cards at a time soon. I am slowly but surely getting my feet wet at the tables playing a min bet of $10 and not deviating from that $10 bet - unless the true count gets above +12 where I am going up to $20 - $30 $40. I am currently studying the indexes.



The problem is when you say things like this it makes me think you don't really know how card counting works. That being said there is no reason you can't learn.

If you are getting true counts of +12 consistently you are almost certainly doing something wrong. Even in single deck these counts happen about 3% of the time. Rather than indexes your time would be better spent studying betting ramps and practicing actual card counting. If you want to invest in software to really hone your skills pick up Casino Verite. It's somewhat expensive, but nearly essential for the burgeoning counter. You'll also want to read more so here is an excellent free web book (by the creator of Casino Verite) to check out
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:26:49 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Ok - Let me just say I appreciate all feedback and comments from everybody - especially those who have been giving me solid advice with betting spreads - table limits - rate of ruin etc. What is starting to bother me is that this thread has turned into my personal life story and how my bankroll was funded? -

I started this thread - to get advice on a good bet spread - table min - max bet - rate of ruin for my bankroll. Can we please stick to that? Thanks everyone!

I will answer the last question that is not pertaining to blackjack table situations - I have VA health insurance - as I am a veteran.



I am happy to hear that. My question was geared to my conversations with some other AP's who have no health insurance, and thus are not accurately assessing their 'risk of ruin' when considering an AP lifestyle versus a mundane job making a little less money.
The members who replied cannot give you a good answer in a vacuum, that's why these other factors have been brought up. If you want the simple risk of ruin analysis, I believe it was given a dozen or so pages back. But it is never as simple as that.... and that is what the learned forum members are trying to help you understand. If you do not want the advice, of course you need not read on......

And..... thank you for your service to our country....
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:29:46 AM permalink
Quote: geoff

The problem is when you say things like this it makes me think you don't really know how card counting works. That being said there is no reason you can't learn.

If you are getting true counts of +12 consistently you are almost certainly doing something wrong. Even in single deck these counts happen about 3% of the time. Rather than indexes your time would be better spent studying betting ramps and practicing actual card counting. If you want to invest in software to really hone your skills pick up Casino Verite. It's somewhat expensive, but nearly essential for the burgeoning counter. You'll also want to read more so here is an excellent free web book (by the creator of Casino Verite) to check out
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/



I haven't got a true count +12 more than once. I played 1 practice session of an hour and half with 3 shoes. And on the 2nd shoe the count got to +12 and I have increased my bets. I placed these $20, $30, and $40 bets a few times - while I made all my other bets $10. I hope this clarify's my previous post.
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:37:45 AM permalink
Your risk of ruin is nearly 100% because you don't have a bankroll. A balance transfer off a cash advance is a loan, not a bankroll.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:49:02 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Lemieux66 - You are wrong and making an assumption based on I don't know what. But, I have netted a significant sum over the last few years playing poker and have been running extremely well over the last few months. The reason why I am trying to take up a new venture is explained in my previous posts.



Ok, fair enough. However, I need to know something. Why do you want play less poker and take up a game where the RoR is higher, you assuredly make less money than poker, you get casino heat, and you have to deal with smokers?
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 9:56:03 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

Your risk of ruin is nearly 100% because you don't have a bankroll. A balance transfer off a cash advance is a loan, not a bankroll.



I disagree. If I am not able to profit 20k in the next 25 months from card counting and pay back the loan - I can take out another 0% balance transfer from another card to pay for the 1st one - extending my time to profit from card counting. A 2nd option is I can simply pay it off from other means which is very doable considering I have other ways of making money. Risk of ruin having a 40k bankroll in a given time frame of 15 months is NO WAY near 100%. I don't understand why everybody keeps factoring in the means by which the bankroll was funded. A bankroll is a bankroll regardless of how it is funded or obtained.

bank·roll (băngk′rōl′)
n.
1. A roll of paper money.
2. Informal One's ready cash.
tr.v. bank·rolled, bank·roll·ing, bank·rolls Informal
To underwrite the expense of (a business venture, for example).


bankroll (ˈbæŋkˌrəʊl)
n
1. a roll of currency notes
2. (Banking & Finance) the financial resources of a person, organization, etc
vb
3. (tr) to provide the capital for; finance


Do you think the majority of businesses, big or small are funded through liquid cash assets? Ive worked in finance - specifically in asset based lending - my company lent money to small and midsize businesses to fund their daily operating expenses. The majority of businesses are started though the initial capital or funding though loans. Even when you buy a car or a house - do you pay cash out your pocket for these big purchases or do you finance or take out a home loan? Some do, but the majority don't.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 10:02:09 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Ok, fair enough. However, I need to know something. Why do you want play less poker and take up a game where the RoR is higher, you assuredly make less money than poker, you get casino heat, and you have to deal with smokers?



But thats what I am trying to establish a risk of ruin that is 2% or under. I want to take on something that can increase my hourly wage beyond what I am currently getting playing poker at the current limits I play. If I can average over the long term an hourly wage of $50 or higher - then thats why I want to take on blackjack. I do not mind casino heat - as I understand it comes with the territory - the smoke thing - I will try to play in smoke free casinos - or specifically scout out the tables with little or no smokers.

Unsure of why you say I would assuredly make less money than poker? The amount you can make in blackjack card counting is unlimited and all depends on your hourly average bet. Assuming a 1% player edge, you should make per hour what your average bet is, correct? This is what I gathered from researching card counting.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 10:07:18 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

But thats what I am trying to establish a risk of ruin that is 2% or under. I want to take on something that can increase my hourly wage beyond what I am currently getting playing poker at the current limits I play. If I can average over the long term an hourly wage of $50 or higher - then thats why I want to take on blackjack. I do not mind casino heat - as I understand it comes with the territory - the smoke thing - I will try to play in smoke free casinos - or specifically scout out the tables with little or no smokers.

Unsure of why you say I would assuredly make less money than poker? The amount you can make in blackjack card counting is unlimited and all depends on your hourly average bet. Assuming a 1% player edge, you should make per hour what your average unit bet is, correct?



There's a smoke free casino?? I know Revel in AC was like this for a bit but they learned fast people just won't go if they couldn't smoke.

So let me get this right. If you walk by a dealer in the smoking section that's giving insane penetration will you play there or not?
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
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March 17th, 2014 at 10:09:47 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

There's a smoke free casino?? I know Revel in AC was like this for a bit but they learned fast people just won't go if they couldn't smoke.

So let me get this right. If you walk by a dealer in the smoking section that's giving insane penetration will you play there or not?



Yes, the casino I play at - has 4 casino's - 1 of the 4 is smoke free. I would most definately play at a smoking table if it is real good penetration with no other similiar tables with less smoking - I'm saying I would just first look for the smoke free tables and tables where only 1 or 2 people are smoking as opposed to everybody smoking first. Thats all.
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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March 17th, 2014 at 10:14:05 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

There's a smoke free casino?? I know Revel in AC was like this for a bit but they learned fast people just won't go if they couldn't smoke.

So let me get this right. If you walk by a dealer in the smoking section that's giving insane penetration will you play there or not?



All the casinos in MD are smoke free by law.

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