Brand New Counter - $40,000 bankroll - What should be my bet spread and at what table minimum?
Quote: IbeatyouracesYou have to be willing to go down in stakes if losing. You can't stay at the same level. $800 max is only 2% of a a $40,000 BR. If you lose even $2000, your new max is only $790. You have to be willing to adjust no matter what other people tell you. Some people prefer maxing only 1% and that's fine as well, but you must use the same parameters if losing. YOU MUST ADJUST YOUR BETS!
Then you're betting full kelly. Technically, you can't go broke, but actually there's over a 13% chance you will get brutally crushed? Is that correct?
Quote: IbeatyouracesPossibly. I haven't regularly counted cards in years. Too little money for the time involved. One trip for other advantage plays will make up for 9-12 months worth of counting.
I will reiterate this though. I don't recommend the OP to quit his job for this venture.
That's way too high risk for me. I keep mine below half a percent, which is more conservative than most I imagine. 9-12 months--what type of plays are these, if you can give a general description?
This is not the same OP that wants to quit his job and support his family on gambling, with zero experience. This is the one who wants to essentially use credit as a bankroll. Regardless, my recommendation is the same.
Quote: IbeatyouracesPossibly. I haven't regularly counted cards in years. Too little money for the time involved. One trip for other advantage plays will make up for 9-12 months worth of counting.
I will reiterate this though. I don't recommend the OP to quit his job for this venture.
Thats the problem.. I don't have a job.. I have been out of work for over a year and a half.. and need to generate income.. poker helps but need more..
In a multi-deck game, you must spread minimum 1-12, with 1-16 or 1-20 preferred and you must get your max bet out by TC +4 or +5 at the latest, for it to have the impact that it needs to have. In the absence of this your spread, is essentially minimum wager to whatever you have out at TC+4 or +5, which according to your early sample was $50 or $60 I believe. This meant you were basically playing with a spread of 1-5 or 1-6 and that is not going to get it done with multi-deck games, where favorable counts happen very infrequently. In these multi deck games you need to pounce on the rare TC's to have any kind of reasonable win rate.
That is the extent of my advice. Clinical mathematical advice based on the bankroll, that you stated. I never said it was a good idea for you to play with your circumstances and I never said it was reasonable to play with borrowed money. You are an adult. These are your decisions to make. It is not my place to hold your hand and tell people how to run their lives. I simply said, based on the stated bankroll, this is how you need to attack the game described to have a reasonable win rate at a reasonable RoR.
Now based on EVERYTHING you have said, and that includes terms in this latest post, like 'chase my losses' and 'immaturely lost my discipline', I too will play the parent, which I really don't feel it is my place to do, and tell you that you have no business attempting what you are doing. You long ago passed the danger zone.
Quote: kewljOk, I am not going to be the bad guy here. Based on your statement that you had a $40,000 bankroll, I provided a sample spread and ramp. My point was to show that to beat multi-deck games you need to spread and ramp aggressively. I wanted to show that this idea of raising your wagers one minimum wager at a time, per true count, where you will hit Max bet at some ridiculous TC of +20 is not going to get it done. Plus TC of +20, essentially never happens. Plus TC's of +10 happen so rarely that it is insignificant as far as spread. If you are waiting for these kind of TC's to max bet, your max bet is doing you no good.
In a multi-deck game, you must spread minimum 1-12, with 1-16 or 1-20 preferred and you must get your max bet out by TC +4 or +5 at the latest, for it to have the impact that it needs to have. In the absence of this your spread, is essentially minimum wager to whatever you have out at TC+4 or +5, which according to your early sample was $50 or $60 I believe. This meant you were basically playing with a spread of 1-5 or 1-6 and that is not going to get it done with multi-deck games, where favorable counts happen very infrequently. In these multi deck games you need to pounce on the rare TC's to have any kind of reasonable win rate.
That is the extent of my advice. Clinical mathematical advise based on the bankroll, that you stated. I never said it was a good idea for you to play with your circumstances and I never said it was reasonable to play with borrowed money. You are an adult. These are your decisions to make. It is not my place to hold your hand. I simply said, if you have the bankroll you say, this is how you need to attack the game described to have a reasonable win rate at a reasonable RoR.
Now based on EVERYTHING you have said, and that includes terms in this latest post, like 'chase my losses' and 'immaturely lost my discipline', I too will play the parent, which I really don't feel it is my place to do, and tell you that you have no business attempting what you are doing. You long ago passed the danger zone.
I understand.. I appreciate the advice.. Your betting ramp and spread makes sense to me... It's true ..I noticed in an 8 deck game..it takes awhile for the count to get good..because of the excess decks.. and if and when the count gets good its usually only for a few hands towards the end of the shoe.. I am going to continue to use this same betting ramp/spread.. I do have to practice more self control in regards to losing my temperament when I lose.. I think it was just a loss of control because it was the 1st time I put out such huge bets...It was a new thing for me..and I didn't know how to emotionally handle it when I lost such huge amounts within a matter of seconds/minutes..
Quote: sabreThe OP is bankrolled with retirement funds and a 0% balance transfer off credit cards, and you all are debating the finer points of wonging.
OP should not be playing blackjack.
Posted a month ago. Still relevant.
Quote: stabworldYour betting ramp and spread makes sense to me... It's true ..I noticed in an 8 deck game..it takes awhile for the count to get good..because of the excess decks.. and if and when the count gets good its usually only for a few hands towards the end of the shoe.
That is correct. In an 8 deck game with average penetration of say 75%, you will get a TC of +5 or more LESS than 2% of the time. That is 2 hands in a hundred. And in all likelihood, you will hit one shoe with a count that high towards the end of the shoe, and will see 5 or 6 rounds like that and then not see another for 300 or 400 rounds. This small frequency is why you need to pounce when it occurs.
Those numbers above of less than 2 percent are for a TC of +5. For a true count of +10 (same 8 deck game, 75%) the occurrence rate is .04 of 1 percent. That's 1 in 2500 rounds! You don't even want to know what the occurrence rate is for a TC +20. lol. Now do you see why you have to max bet by TC +5 at the latest?
And again, based on developments in this thread, I feel like I now need to enclose a disclaimer here that I am not encouraging you to play. That is your decision. I am simply stating what is needed to attack that game and achieve what I would consider a reasonable long-term win rate.
Quote: stabworld(update to my play.. ) Ok not so great my last session at the tables... I lost 3 max bets $200 and a few $150 and $100 bets.. using the new betting ramp and spread suggested by kewlj.. ( lost -$810 in a 2 hour session. ) This basically just took all my winnings in the last 15-16 sessions and broke me even .. a little disappointing.. I'm not going to lye.. when I was down that much.. I immaturely lost my discipline.... was so upset... lost my count and wanted to chase my lost and bet my remaining chips on the table (which was slightly over my max bet) and was proceeding to bet like a mad man and no longer like a calculated counter.. I transitioned from counter to gambler.. does this happen to anybody..? does anybody lose discipline when they lost a few or a lot of max bets..? I was disappointed in myself after I have done this.. I didn't feel the comfort level with this new spread and betting ramp as I did with my real conservative one I was using initially. Maybe because this is the first time putting out $200 $150 $100 & $50 bets at +2 TC thru +5 TC's.. I hope that's the case and I just have to get use to it.. Maybe if I profited during the session my outlook would have been different..
It's called steaming. The casino will love you for it. If you're going to lose control after dropping a few max bets, it may be time to stop playing until you get your emotions in check. Believe me, losing three max bets is nothing!
Quote: 1BBlosing three max bets is nothing!
Losing 3 max bets in one round when betting a single hand is nothing. Losing 6 in one round ... now you can start to think about complaining.
Quote: kewljThat is correct. In an 8 deck game with average penetration of say 75%, you will get a TC of +5 or more LESS than 2% of the time. That is 2 hands in a hundred. And in all likelihood, you will hit one shoe with a count that high towards the end of the shoe, and will see 5 or 6 rounds like that and then not see another for 300 or 400 rounds. This small frequency is why you need to pounce when it occurs.
Those numbers above of less than 2 percent are for a TC of +5. For a true count of +10 (same 8 deck game, 75%) the occurrence rate is .04 of 1 percent. That's 1 in 2500 rounds! You don't even want to know what the occurrence rate is for a TC +20. lol. Now do you see why you have to max bet by TC +5 at the latest?
And again, based on developments in this thread, I feel like I now need to enclose a disclaimer here that I am not encouraging you to play. That is your decision. I am simply stating what is needed to attack that game and achieve what I would consider a reasonable long-term win rate.
one of the 8 deck games I play has a pretty good penetration.. around 87.5%. The dealers are instructed to cut leaving approximately 1 deck behind. I believe they do this so they don't have to waste time dealing as much ..hence faster income for the casino.. So in the last few rounds.. my running count is basically my true count because I'm only now dividing by 1 to the running count (using the Hi-Lo count)... its been real juicy at times...
Quote: kewljThat is correct. In an 8 deck game with average penetration of say 75%, you will get a TC of +5 or more LESS than 2% of the time. That is 2 hands in a hundred. And in all likelihood, you will hit one shoe with a count that high towards the end of the shoe, and will see 5 or 6 rounds like that and then not see another for 300 or 400 rounds. This small frequency is why you need to pounce when it occurs.
Those numbers above of less than 2 percent are for a TC of +5. For a true count of +10 (same 8 deck game, 75%) the occurrence rate is .04 of 1 percent. That's 1 in 2500 rounds! You don't even want to know what the occurrence rate is for a TC +20. lol. Now do you see why you have to max bet by TC +5 at the latest?
And again, based on developments in this thread, I feel like I now need to enclose a disclaimer here that I am not encouraging you to play. That is your decision. I am simply stating what is needed to attack that game and achieve what I would consider a reasonable long-term win rate.
kewlj - yes I do see what you are talking about.
Question - Using your betting ramp/spread in an 8 deck game with a good 85% penetration .. DAS. Late surrender offered... no resplit aces.. dealer - Hit on Soft 17 and Stand on Hard17... what would you say would be the hourly rate earned using Hi-Lo count .. and the major index plays?
Quote: kewljThat is correct. In an 8 deck game with average penetration of say 75%, you will get a TC of +5 or more LESS than 2% of the time. That is 2 hands in a hundred. And in all likelihood, you will hit one shoe with a count that high towards the end of the shoe, and will see 5 or 6 rounds like that and then not see another for 300 or 400 rounds. This small frequency is why you need to pounce when it occurs.
Those numbers above of less than 2 percent are for a TC of +5. For a true count of +10 (same 8 deck game, 75%) the occurrence rate is .04 of 1 percent. That's 1 in 2500 rounds! You don't even want to know what the occurrence rate is for a TC +20. lol. Now do you see why you have to max bet by TC +5 at the latest?
And again, based on developments in this thread, I feel like I now need to enclose a disclaimer here that I am not encouraging you to play. That is your decision. I am simply stating what is needed to attack that game and achieve what I would consider a reasonable long-term win rate.
kewlj - I know of this double deck game with no mid shoe entry.. delt down. the problem is the penetration sucks.. its around 50% - 65% at best.. from what I observed standing behind the games.. $50 min bet. Do you think this game is worth playing..?
Quote: stabworldkewlj - I know of this double deck game with no mid shoe entry.. delt down. the problem is the penetration sucks.. its around 50% - 65% at best.. from what I observed standing behind the games.. $50 min bet. Do you think this game is worth playing..?
Call me fussy but I would not play double deck with less than 65% penetration, especially in a play all situation.
Quote: 1BBCall me fussy but I would not play double deck with less than 65% penetration, especially in a play all situation.
Ok.....you are fussy, 1BB. lol. just kidding.
I do play DD games with 60% pen or greater, but only with one other player. But I am willing to play some mediocre games that other players consider a waste. I think that is a result of my early years in AC, where I played almost all crappy games.
60% is my minimum. Any decent counts are going to happen in the last round or two and if you play with more players, there really isn't a round or two with that penetration.
Play all situation is a little tricky on DD, because unlike shoe games, where I exit aggressively because there are many hands to play through if the count goes negative, in DD, you might only need to get through another round or two to get to the shuffle. So I will just throw out some ridiculous excuse to skip a round or two. "change the cards", "change my luck", "refuse to lose 3 in a row". Sometimes I spout something very general, like "I am done with this shoe". Almost anything will work. Of course this only works with one other player. If you are heads up, you can't sit out a round. That is why one other player is my preference with DD.
Quote: stabworld(update to my play.. ) Ok not so great my last session at the tables... I lost 3 max bets $200 and a few $150 and $100 bets.. using the new betting ramp and spread suggested by kewlj.. ( lost -$810 in a 2 hour session. ) This basically just took all my winnings in the last 15-16 sessions and broke me even .. a little disappointing.. I'm not going to lye.. when I was down that much.. I immaturely lost my discipline.... was so upset... lost my count and wanted to chase my lost and bet my remaining chips on the table (which was slightly over my max bet) and was proceeding to bet like a mad man and no longer like a calculated counter.. I transitioned from counter to gambler.. does this happen to anybody..? does anybody lose discipline when they lost a few or a lot of max bets..? I was disappointed in myself after I have done this.. I didn't feel the comfort level with this new spread and betting ramp as I did with my real conservative one I was using initially. Maybe because this is the first time putting out $200 $150 $100 & $50 bets at +2 TC thru +5 TC's.. I hope that's the case and I just have to get use to it.. Maybe if I profited during the session my outlook would have been different..
It's OK to be internally unhappy, and maybe even make a comment or two to vent. Appearing to lose control, while upping your bet in precise conjunction in the count, does not hurt cover. I sometimes look like I'm going on tilt until my minimum bet goes back out there at the top of the shoe (I'm not actually going to pay for cover). However, losing your composure, the count, and attempting to chase the losses is a strong sign that you should not be playing at all, or at least at this betting level. I really think you are ignoring warning signs, and latching on to any encouragement you can find, even if it is conditional. There's no reason not to work up to this level, especially if you do not yet know perfect strategy with a full compliment of indices.
Quote: kewljOk.....you are fussy, 1BB. lol. just kidding.
I do play DD games with 60% pen or greater, but only with one other player. But I am willing to play some mediocre games that other players consider a waste. I think that is a result of my early years in AC, where I played almost all crappy games.
60% is my minimum. Any decent counts are going to happen in the last round or two and if you play with more players, there really isn't a round or two with that penetration.
Play all situation is a little tricky on DD, because unlike shoe games, where I exit aggressively because there are many hands to play through if the count goes negative, in DD, you might only need to get through another round or two to get to the shuffle. So I will just throw out some ridiculous excuse to skip a round or two. "change the cards", "change my luck", "refuse to lose 3 in a row". Sometimes I spout something very general, like "I am done with this shoe". Almost anything will work. Of course this only works with one other player. If you are heads up, you can't sit out a round. That is why one other player is my preference with DD.
Good advice...Thanks..Will keep it in mind..
Quote: SonuvabishIt's OK to be internally unhappy, and maybe even make a comment or two to vent. Appearing to lose control, while upping your bet in precise conjunction in the count, does not hurt cover. I sometimes look like I'm going on tilt until my minimum bet goes back out there at the top of the shoe (I'm not actually going to pay for cover). However, losing your composure, the count, and attempting to chase the losses is a strong sign that you should not be playing at all, or at least at this betting level. I really think you are ignoring warning signs, and latching on to any encouragement you can find, even if it is conditional. There's no reason not to work up to this level, especially if you do not yet know perfect strategy with a full compliment of indices.
I hear you.. I know basically perfect strategy..with the exception of a few plays... like when to double on certain soft aces..or hitting or standing on 12's vs. the dealers 2 3 or 4.. I keep my basic strategy card on the table and I reference it on the plays I am unsure of.. in time I will know basic strategy 100%.. I am slowly but surly learning the index plays...I know the most important ones.. like take insurance on +3 or more.. and the fab 4 surrenders.. I know the splitting 10's vs. dealers 5 at a +5 and against dealers 6 at a +4...
Quote: stabworldI hear you.. I know basically perfect strategy..with the exception of a few plays... like when to double on certain soft aces..or hitting or standing on 12's vs. the dealers 2 3 or 4.. I keep my basic strategy card on the table and I reference it on the plays I am unsure of.. in time I will know basic strategy 100%.. I am slowly but surly learning the index plays...I know the most important ones.. like take insurance on +3 or more.. and the fab 4 surrenders.. I know the splitting 10's vs. dealers 5 at a +5 and against dealers 6 at a +4...
Splitting tens are huge red flags. Keep that in mind,
Quote: stabworldI hear you.. I know basically perfect strategy..with the exception of a few plays... like when to double on certain soft aces..or hitting or standing on 12's vs. the dealers 2 3 or 4.. I keep my basic strategy card on the table and I reference it on the plays I am unsure of.. in time I will know basic strategy 100%.. I am slowly but surly learning the index plays...I know the most important ones.. like take insurance on +3 or more.. and the fab 4 surrenders.. I know the splitting 10's vs. dealers 5 at a +5 and against dealers 6 at a +4...
Regardless of bankroll, it is my opinion that no one should count until they know basic strategy 100%. Knowing basic strategy fully is not the end, you must know it instantly. You are using a chart to help you at the table. Strategy can be memorized in 30 minutes by an elementary school student, not necessarily applied. Not to mention, casinos notoriously sell charts made for games with different rules. Doubling those ridiculously low ROR numbers earlier in the thread to better match actual playing conditions, as opposed to ideal conditions, would still be based on a much more solid performer--so no one is going to argue that you should double them.
Quote: SonuvabishRegardless of bankroll, it is my opinion that no one should count until they know basic strategy 100%. Knowing basic strategy fully is not the end, you must know it instantly. You are using a chart to help you at the table. Strategy can be memorized in 30 minutes by an elementary school student, not necessarily applied. Not to mention, casinos notoriously sell charts made for games with different rules. Doubling those ridiculously low ROR numbers earlier in the thread to better match actual playing conditions, as opposed to ideal conditions, would still be based on a much more solid performer--so no one is going to argue that you should double them.
I was going to ask. There are a few differences in basic strategy from double deck to 4+ more decks. If I am playing in a 8 deck. and I am down to around 2 decks left in the shoe. Should I be using the basic strategy off the double deck card?
Quote: stabworldI was going to ask. There are a few differences in basic strategy from double deck to 4+ more decks. If I am playing in a 8 deck. and I am down to around 2 decks left in the shoe. Should I be using the basic strategy off the double deck card?
If you sit down at at 8-deck game, the dealer shuffles, takes 7 decks and lights them on fire ... are you now playing a single deck game?
Quote: stabworld
Question - Using your betting ramp/spread in an 8 deck game with a good 85% penetration .. DAS. Late surrender offered... no resplit aces.. dealer - Hit on Soft 17 and Stand on Hard17... what would you say would be the hourly rate earned using Hi-Lo count .. and the major index plays?
You can invest in Casino Verit'e and CVData to run your own sims.
Your win rate will likely be less than three units per 100 hands played.
Hi-Lo Sim
A.P. Heat
This is a link to Norm Wattenberger's book "How Blackjack Works". The page includes a link to his other book "Modern Blackjack".
Free Books
Quote: sabreIf you sit down at at 8-deck game, the dealer shuffles, takes 7 decks and lights them on fire ... are you now playing a single deck game?
Well that is a discussion. You can say yes, because there are 52 cards remaining- and a deck of cards are made of 52 cards. If you take a single deck out of a box you will have 4 aces, 4 2's, 4 3's etc. etc. However, If you take 7 decks from 8 decks, what 52 cards do you have left? They will certainly be randomized and highly unlikely you will have the exact cards that you would have in a brand new single deck. So are you truly playing a single deck game in relation to single deck basic strategy?
Quote: stabworldI was going to ask. There are a few differences in basic strategy from double deck to 4+ more decks. If I am playing in a 8 deck. and I am down to around 2 decks left in the shoe. Should I be using the basic strategy off the double deck card?
This is a question I wouldn't even expect from someone even remotely considering trying to be a blackjack AP. If the 6 decks removed coincidentally have exactly 6 aces out, 6 deuces out,..... 24 ten/faces out.... then yes... Oh well.....
Quote: SOOPOOThis is a question I wouldn't even expect from someone even remotely considering trying to be a blackjack AP. If the 6 decks removed coincidentally have exactly 6 aces out, 6 deuces out,..... 24 ten/faces out.... then yes... Oh well.....
This seems like a reasonable question to me. The basic strategy chart is not designed for counters. The minor changes in strategy are primarily due to differences in the amount of decks being used. The floating advantage causes the 6D game to resemble a DD advantage at that that depth. I probably mused the same question myself.
The answer to the question is no. And I otherwise support Soopoo's discouraging attitude toward this endeavor.
Quote: stabworld(update to my play.. ) Ok not so great my last session at the tables... I lost 3 max bets $200 and a few $150 and $100 bets.. using the new betting ramp and spread suggested by kewlj.. ( lost -$810 in a 2 hour session. ) This basically just took all my winnings in the last 15-16 sessions and broke me even .. a little disappointing.. I'm not going to lye.. when I was down that much.. I immaturely lost my discipline.... was so upset... lost my count and wanted to chase my lost and bet my remaining chips on the table (which was slightly over my max bet) and was proceeding to bet like a mad man and no longer like a calculated counter.. I transitioned from counter to gambler.. does this happen to anybody..? does anybody lose discipline when they lost a few or a lot of max bets..? I was disappointed in myself after I have done this.. I didn't feel the comfort level with this new spread and betting ramp as I did with my real conservative one I was using initially. Maybe because this is the first time putting out $200 $150 $100 & $50 bets at +2 TC thru +5 TC's.. I hope that's the case and I just have to get use to it.. Maybe if I profited during the session my outlook would have been different..
I thought you "made a living" playing poker? Not to be rude, but you sound like a virgin describing her first time. That's tilt my friend. And if you're uncomfortable putting out $200, I see why you want to switch from poker to blackjack. "Hey billy, bet $200 against that guy and he folds, then goes on tilt".
I think you should really listen to what these guys are telling you, slow it down.
Don't bet what you are not comfortable with.
Quote: DraculaI thought you "made a living" playing poker? Not to be rude, but you sound like a virgin describing her first time. That's tilt my friend. And if you're uncomfortable putting out $200, I see why you want to switch from poker to blackjack. "Hey billy, bet $200 against that guy and he folds, then goes on tilt".
I think you should really listen to what these guys are telling you, slow it down.
Don't bet what you are not comfortable with.
I am perfectly comfortable putting $200 into a pot in poker at this point in time, because I am confident enough in my game that If I am putting $200 into a pot I know it's in there with good expected value. I have played so many big pots over the years its not a big deal. However, when I first started playing poker putting $200 WAS uncomfortable for me. I am new to counting, and never placed $200 bets before on a blackjack table so I AM uncomfortable with that. I am sure it will pass in time like it has in poker once I am confident enough in counting cards. I don't see anything wrong with that.
question - I know according to the illustrious 18 index plays - it says to stand on a 16 vs. 10 at a 0 or higher count. Where basic strategy says to hit.
Now at a table where late surrender is offered - which play takes preference over the other:
"standing on the 16 vs 10 at a 0 or higher count" or "surrendering"?
and also:
"hitting on the 16 vs 10 at a -1 or lower count" or "surrendering"? (Obviously not playing a hand at all at -1 or lesser counts is the more optimal play, but just in case you are playing -1 or -2 counts for camouflage I ask)
Similarly, I ask the same exact question for the other illustrious 18 index play for the 15 vs 10 at a +4 count or higher scenario?
2)Double down
3)Hit or stand
Quote: stabworldI know this is probably real basic knowledge for most counters. But I have been scratching my head on this one: I couldn't find an answer to this question after researching so I will just ask it in the hopes of not looking stupid:
question - I know according to the illustrious 18 index plays - it says to stand on a 16 vs. 10 at a 0 or higher count. Where basic strategy says to hit.
Now at a table where late surrender is offered - which play takes preference over the other:
"standing on the 16 vs 10 at a 0 or higher count" or "surrendering"?
and also:
"hitting on the 16 vs 10 at a -1 or lower count" or "surrendering"? (Obviously not playing a hand at all at -1 or lesser counts is the more optimal play, but just in case you are playing -1 or -2 counts for camouflage I ask)
Similarly, I ask the same exact question for the other illustrious 18 index play for the 15 vs 10 at a +4 count or higher scenario?
I think Soopoo should have waited for you to ask this question before declaring you shouldn't try and be an AP. This indicates a clear lack of understanding of how blackjack works. That's OK if you're ramping up 50 cents at a time just to cut in to the house edge for a hobby, but your risking 40,000 of credit and retirement.
Stabworld, you need to slow down to a crawl.
These guys are experienced and knowledgable and are trying to give you sound advice!
Look around the blackjack table... Do you see the fish? ...No?
It's necessary to be fully prepared, clearly you are not. I hope you have gone back to $5 ,1-6 x.
Please do that until you are able to answer your own questions.
Again, I don't mean to be a jerk, this is out of concern for your well being.
To think you can glance at a few charts and take down the casino on a loan is absurd lol
Quote: DraculaI don't mean to sound harsh, but I concur with sonuvabith.
Stabworld, you need to slow down to a crawl.
These guys are experienced and knowledgable and are trying to give you sound advice!
Look around the blackjack table... Do you see the fish? ...No?
It's necessary to be fully prepared, clearly you are not. I hope you have gone back to $5 ,1-6 x.
Please do that until you are able to answer your own questions.
Again, I don't mean to be a jerk, this is out of concern for your well being.
To think you can glance at a few charts and take down the casino on a loan is absurd lol
I understand. Remember everybody I am in the learning process. Please "Relax a little" I have only been studying and practicing for a month with 22 hours of real play - playing $10 tables with a 1-6 spread and 1 session I tried a 1-20 spread. I am going to go back down to a more conservative spread for now until I get all the bugs worked out and my questions answered. Geez, the opposition to me playing blackjack is overwhelming. Although I could go without the sarcastic remarks posted by some people (won't name any names - although a few stick out in my head). Again as always, I appreciate the feedback and advice.
It looks more like genuine people trying to help someone see the big picture. Taking out a loan and retirement to play at a disadvantage.
I think you hit the nail one the head when you suggest "please relax a little". No one is saying not to play, just not above your skill level and/or means.
It's not my place to judge your means, but it seems your skill level is not where it should be. Even you recognize that. I want you to play and I want you to win!
When you are ready.
I'm glad to hear you are lowering your max bet, practice makes perfect.
Quote: stabworld(update to my play.. ) Ok not so great my last session at the tables... I lost 3 max bets $200 and a few $150 and $100 bets.. using the new betting ramp and spread suggested by kewlj.. ( lost -$810 in a 2 hour session. ) This basically just took all my winnings in the last 15-16 sessions and broke me even .. a little disappointing.. I'm not going to lye.. when I was down that much.. I immaturely lost my discipline.... was so upset... lost my count and wanted to chase my lost and bet my remaining chips on the table (which was slightly over my max bet) and was proceeding to bet like a mad man and no longer like a calculated counter.. I transitioned from counter to gambler.. does this happen to anybody..? does anybody lose discipline when they lost a few or a lot of max bets..? I was disappointed in myself after I have done this.. I didn't feel the comfort level with this new spread and betting ramp as I did with my real conservative one I was using initially. Maybe because this is the first time putting out $200 $150 $100 & $50 bets at +2 TC thru +5 TC's.. I hope that's the case and I just have to get use to it.. Maybe if I profited during the session my outlook would have been different..
Ah the infamous blackjack tilt! Weeks and weeks of work, with mostly winning sessions, the thought that "hey, BJ is easy!", and the inevitable negative streak that shakes your cool and your confidence, driving you to chase losses. I'm all too familiar with the feeling -- see my post from October to read about it and how, rightfully, I got smashed from all sides about playing wrong, BJ not being for me, etc.
I think this is precisely the most difficult thing about BJ. Keeping cool when things go wrong. It's good that you went through it after a win. Now you know what emotions to expect and how your behavior changes as situations evolve. Believe me, you will want to chase losses again. Tiltiltiltiltilt. Sit back, *analyze* your emotions, and come up with a plan on how to react to them next time you visit a casino. Much easier said than done. For a while, I would refuse to accept that a table had my money. I would stay there, longer than I should, fighting to get it back. Betting max when TC is not nearly high enough, because after all -- it's almost a 50-50 shot, right? WRONG. That is the blackjack tilt. It's a bitch, and it kills bankroll extremely fast.
As for people opposing you and your BJ career ... take it with a grain of salt. You are an adult, capable of making informed decisions. Do your utmost to get the most and the best information before taking what you consider, for yourself, to be reasonable risks. My thought is this, though: in your current state of emotional development, you are too prone to chase losses and lose your cool. Suppose you lost $2k tonight over the course of 10ish hours. Based on your own self-analysis, you are too unfamiliar with what that feels like, the emotional has too much control over the rational, and you are likely to try chasing those losses as well. I disagree with "don't play BJ", but I do agree with "play $10-50" before going much higher. Learn for yourself in what conditions you play better. Seek out empty tables (quicker hands, but also need to count much faster...), and determine if you can play those. I think that you are still in a training phase that will probably last another month or two of at least 2-3 days/week of play.
Quote: arcticfunAh the infamous blackjack tilt! Weeks and weeks of work, with mostly winning sessions, the thought that "hey, BJ is easy!", and the inevitable negative streak that shakes your cool and your confidence, driving you to chase losses. I'm all too familiar with the feeling -- see my post from October to read about it and how, rightfully, I got smashed from all sides about playing wrong, BJ not being for me, etc.
I think this is precisely the most difficult thing about BJ. Keeping cool when things go wrong. It's good that you went through it after a win. Now you know what emotions to expect and how your behavior changes as situations evolve. Believe me, you will want to chase losses again. Tiltiltiltiltilt. Sit back, *analyze* your emotions, and come up with a plan on how to react to them next time you visit a casino. Much easier said than done. For a while, I would refuse to accept that a table had my money. I would stay there, longer than I should, fighting to get it back. Betting max when TC is not nearly high enough, because after all -- it's almost a 50-50 shot, right? WRONG. That is the blackjack tilt. It's a bitch, and it kills bankroll extremely fast.
As for people opposing you and your BJ career ... take it with a grain of salt. You are an adult, capable of making informed decisions. Do your utmost to get the most and the best information before taking what you consider, for yourself, to be reasonable risks. My thought is this, though: in your current state of emotional development, you are too prone to chase losses and lose your cool. Suppose you lost $2k tonight over the course of 10ish hours. Based on your own self-analysis, you are too unfamiliar with what that feels like, the emotional has too much control over the rational, and you are likely to try chasing those losses as well. I disagree with "don't play BJ", but I do agree with "play $10-50" before going much higher. Learn for yourself in what conditions you play better. Seek out empty tables (quicker hands, but also need to count much faster...), and determine if you can play those. I think that you are still in a training phase that will probably last another month or two of at least 2-3 days/week of play.
Don't forget to take these ideas with a grain of a salt.
Haven't been posting. Just to give everybody an update, I now have a little over 70 hrs of logged card counting play. I have been using a hybrid betting spread/ramp in between my real conservative spread of upping $10 per TC+1 (1-7) and the 1-20 spread ramping up in increments of $50 every TC+1. maxing out $200 at a TC+5 suggested to me before. The spread I have been using and has been working for me is a 1-15 spread multiplying the TC+1 by 2, and that is my bet at a $10 table. I also spread to 2 spots when available. I'm up altogether by around $1,800 averaging around $26 an hr.
I experienced for the first time heat yesterday from what seemed to be a guy disguised as a normal player, sat down next to me, and was clearly trying to disrupt my count and intimidate me. He would non-stop talk to me, and in almost every sentence include numbers in his sentences. example - "I slept from 7 to 7 yesterday, woke up after 3 hours at 10". then "you know if I was a baseball player I would have a .275 batting average". then "you know I have 7 brothers and sisters". It was clearly not a person trying to engage in conversation being friendly, his conversation was all over the place including numbers in almost every sentence. He would then ask me "oh how much you up?" and say things like "You must play well, you have all those chips." He would not leave me alone. He would say "oh, when you leaving? "where you from?" Just non-stop talking and questions. He would just not leave me alone, no matter how much i tried to politely let him no I wasn't interested in conversation.
Has anybody experienced this type of heat before?
Quote: stabworldHey everybody,
Haven't been posting. Just to give everybody an update, I now have a little over 70 hrs of logged card counting play. I have been using a hybrid betting spread/ramp in between my real conservative spread of upping $10 per TC+1 (1-7) and the 1-20 spread ramping up in increments of $50 every TC+1. maxing out $200 at a TC+5 suggested to me before. The spread I have been using and has been working for me is a 1-15 spread multiplying the TC+1 by 2, and that is my bet at a $10 table. I also spread to 2 spots when available. I'm up altogether by around $1,800 averaging around $26 an hr.
I experienced for the first time heat yesterday from what seemed to be a guy disguised as a normal player, sat down next to me, and was clearly trying to disrupt my count and intimidate me. He would non-stop talk to me, and in almost every sentence include numbers in his sentences. example - "I slept from 7 to 7 yesterday, woke up after 3 hours at 10". then "you know if I was a baseball player I would have a .275 batting average". then "you know I have 7 brothers and sisters". It was clearly not a person trying to engage in conversation being friendly, his conversation was all over the place including numbers in almost every sentence. He would then ask me "oh how much you up?" and say things like "You must play well, you have all those chips." He would not leave me alone. He would say "oh, when you leaving? "where you from?" Just non-stop talking and questions. He would just not leave me alone, no matter how much i tried to politely let him no I wasn't interested in conversation.
Has anybody experienced this type of heat before?
Many times from a pit boss, not from another player.
Quote: 1BBMany times from a pit boss, not from another player.
Yeah that's weird. My guess is that it wasn't heat from the casino, it was just some guy who knows enough to realize you were counting and decided he wanted to f*** with you. I would have left after it became apparent what was going on.
Quote: stabworldOk, i'm probably just being paranoid then, thinking it was someone working for the casino.
There's nothing wrong with a little paranoia, emphasis on little.
Thanks
Quote: stabworldI have a question regarding bet spread. Ok, so, if I am currently spreading 1-15 ($10-$150) but playing 2 spots when possible (max bet out $150 on 1 spot and $150 on 2nd spot, having (2) $150 bets up on the same hand for a total of $300) - is my spread considered 1-15 or 1-30? I'd like to know for recording results purposes.
Thanks
Depends what purposes you are looking to use this information for.
Your edge on that particular hand is as good as a $300 max bet, because expectation is additive. Your edge on the whole shoe is not as good, because you are eating more good cards (ie, you would make more with $300 on one hand, because you would get more hands with the good count). The difference between the two depends on the number of other people at the table. If you are heads up with the dealer, betting 2 hands is quite costly because you are eating cards at 1.5x the rate (3 dealt hands instead of 2), so you get only 2/3 the high-count hands that you would if you bet 2x as much on one hand. On the other hand, at a full table, it makes a lot less of a difference.
For bankroll considerations (swings, etc) it's about the same as a 1-20 spread ($200 max bet). This is not exact but I think it's close enough.
So, it has its pros as well as its cons. I spread to 2 hands a lot (I am not recommending against it). I would record it as 2x$150, because it is different from $150 and different from $300. You may also want to keep track of the number of other players at the table, to more easily interpret your results.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDepends what purposes you are looking to use this information for.
Your edge on that particular hand is as good as a $300 max bet, because expectation is additive. Your edge on the whole shoe is not as good, because you are eating more good cards (ie, you would make more with $300 on one hand, because you would get more hands with the good count). The difference between the two depends on the number of other people at the table. If you are heads up with the dealer, betting 2 hands is quite costly because you are eating cards at 1.5x the rate (3 dealt hands instead of 2), so you get only 2/3 the high-count hands that you would if you bet 2x as much on one hand. On the other hand, at a full table, it makes a lot less of a difference.
For bankroll considerations (swings, etc) it's about the same as a 1-20 spread ($200 max bet). This is not exact but I think it's close enough.
So, it has its pros as well as its cons. I spread to 2 hands a lot (I am not recommending against it). I would record it as 2x$150, because it is different from $150 and different from $300. You may also want to keep track of the number of other players at the table, to more easily interpret your results.
I never thought of it like that. Very interesting and true, I'm eating through the good cards at a faster rate by playing 2 spots. I will keep that in mind and adjust my bets and spots I play accordingly with this new knowledge. Thank you for that.
I found myself, really rushing to play a 2nd spot when I see somebody about to sit down next to me and play that spot when its a almost a full table. Especially when it is a positive count. I guess subconsciously I wanted to be able to play 2 spots instead of playing 1 at a full table when the count is positive.
Why let somebody else eat up the good cards, when I can be eating twice of the good cards.
So, I guess what my plan will be - is to play 1 spot and bet the max when heads up and count is high - but at a full table or a half full table play 2 spots also when the count is high. I think mathematically that is the +EV strategy. Not a 100% sure, but I think that makes sense.
Let me see if I can make sense of this by expressing it in numbers.
Ok, so definitely its understood that it is better to play 1 spot when heads up with the dealer at a positive count, because you are receiving 1/2 hands, as opposed to 2/3 hands - now although that does not sound right by itself, it is dependent upon what you are betting on those hands. So for this to be a true statement I have to be betting more on the 1 spot I'm playing then I would on the each 1 of the 2 spots I am playing by at least 150% (or maybe less, not sure of the exact percentage). Because I am keeping more reserve cards left in the shoe - this is a more profitable strategy.
Now as far as being at a full table (- 1) or (5 spots being played with 1 spot open), if I were to play 1 spot, that means I am receiving 1/6 of the hands - at the completion of the round (6) hands would have been dealt. Now if I were to play 2 spots - that means I am receiving 2/7 of the hands - at the completion of this round: (7) hands would have been dealt.
If this were to continue to the end of the shoe, with it being a positive count the whole way, I would be receiving a higher percentage of good cards by playing 2 spots at a full table instead of 1 spot with 1 seat open -thereby making it the more profitable strategy.
Too tired to see how it would work at a half table, maybe somebody would like to work that out.
Basically, each hand (yours, a civilian's, or the dealer's) eats up about the same number of cards (2.7) on average. So if you are heads up with the dealer, only 2/3 the hands will be dealt.
However, if your max bet is determined by your bankroll (and not by the table's max bet, or what you think that the casino is comfortable with) then you can afford to bet about 1.5x total on two hands than on one. ie, if your bankroll can only handle a $200 max bet, then you can bet $150 on two spots with that same bankroll. So, 2/3 the hands at 3/2x the edge -- it's a wash. With even 1 other player at the table, 2 hands becomes superior (because now you are getting 3/4 the hands, still at 3/2x the edge, with the same bankroll). Also, I think that 2 hands looks more natural because the bets are smaller. I like to spread to 2 hands relatively early (not only with my max bet out). This is really matter of taste, what you think looks natural, what they think looks natural, and what their tolerance level is.
One thing that you should take away from this is that it's best to play with as few other players at the table as possible. Heads up is perfect; 1 other player is ok.
Another nice little trick is that at some casinos they force you to bet 2x the table minimum when you go to 2 hands. So if I start at the table minimum (at a table where that makes sense for my bankroll), I'll spread to 2 hands when the count gets a little bit positive and they will tell me that I need to double my bets! That lets me essentially jump straight to 4x my bet, and it looks very natural because they told me to do it! At very good games (not shoe games -- SD or DD with good rules) that alone can be enough to beat the game (barely). That plus chipping up occasionally (going to 1 to 2 hands of 2 to 2 hands of 3...) can give a nice win rate. This is nice at $100 min tables because it's all black chips and you never have a big stack of them out there to draw attention. To me, 2 hands of $300 each seems like it draws less attention than 1 bet of $600. A stack of 3 $100 chips just doesn't draw any attention at a $100 game. The same thing applies at any table where the min bet is 1 chip ($25, $5, or even $500 if you are a high roller)
Quote: stabworldLet me see if I can make sense of this by expressing it in numbers.
You seem to have more or less the right idea, but don't think about it in terms of the number of cards that you personally receive. Think about it as the number of rounds that are dealt before the cut card is hit and your advantage gets shuffled away. Remember that your profit is per hand, not per card.
