MDawg Results Thread

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:47:49 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
2/4/23	Blackjack	36700	36700
2/6/23	Blackjack	11000	47700
3/25/23	Blackjack	4200�*1	51900
3/26/23	Blackjack	(2200)	49700
3/27/23	Blackjack	5600	55300
3/29/23	Blackjack	11100	66400
3/30/23	Blackjack	3300	69700
4/2/23	Blackjack	110	69810
4/3/23	Blackjack	850	70660
4/6/23	Blackjack	13800	84460
4/8/23	Blackjack	2200	86660
4/28/23	Blackjack	3300�*2	89960
4/30/23	Blackjack	7200	97160
5/3/23	Blackjack	(1500)	95660
5/5/23	Blackjack	4100	99760

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:48:07 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
5/5/23	Blackjack	1850	1850
5/7/23	Blackjack	600	2450
5/7/23	Blackjack	1200	3650
5/9/23	Blackjack	1550	5200
5/18/23	Blackjack	7250�*1	12450
5/20/23	Blackjack	1700	14150
5/20/23	Blackjack	1800	15950
5/22/23	Blackjack	1200	17150
6/15/23	Blackjack	13000�*2	30150
6/16/23	Blackjack	17100	47250
6/17/23	Blackjack	51000	98250
6/18/23	Baccarat	16000	Baccarat-16000 Blackjack-98250 Total: 114250
6/18/23	Blackjack	2100	Baccarat-16000 Blackjack: 100350 Total: 116350
6/20/23	Blackjack	2300	Baccarat-16000 Blackjack: 102650 Total: 118650
6/21/23	Blackjack	6500	Baccarat-16000 Blackjack-109150 Total: 125150

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:49:28 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
6/22/23	Blackjack	130	130
6/24/23	Blackjack	3500	3500
6/24/23	Blackjack	6900	10400
6/25/23	Blackjack	1500	11900
6/27/23	Blackjack & Baccarat-*1	(18000)	(6100)
6/27/23	Baccarat	3200	Baccarat-3200 Blackjack-(6100) Total: (2900)
6/29/23	Baccarat	23000	Baccarat-26200 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 20100
7/1/23	Baccarat	26500	Baccarat-52700 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 46600
7/4/23	Baccarat	(41000)	Baccarat-11700 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 5600
7/4/23	Baccarat	1100	Baccarat-12800 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 6700
7/6/23	Baccarat	16500	Baccarat-29300 Blackjack (6100) Total: 23200
7/7/23	Baccarat	21000	Baccarat-50300 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 44200
7/7/23	Baccarat	(35500)	Baccarat-14800 Blackjack-(6100) Total: 8700
7/10/23	Blackjack	10200	Baccarat: 14800 Blackjack: 4100 Total: 18900
7/10/23	Blackjack	14500	Baccarat: 14800 Blackjack: 18600 Total: 33400

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:49:41 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
7/12/23	Blackjack	13200	13200
7/14/23	Blackjack	(14000)--*1	(800)
7/15/23	Baccarat	37500	Baccarat-37500 Blackjack-(800) Total: 36700
7/16/23	Baccarat	(25000)	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-(800) Total: 11700
9/1/23	Blackjack	35000�*2	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-34200 Total: 46700
9/1/23	Blackjack	(11000)	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-23200 Total: 35700
9/3/23	Blackjack	2000	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-25200 Total: 37700
9/4/23	Blackjack	6500	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-31700 Total: 44200
9/7/23	Blackjack	4100	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-35800 Total: 48300
9/10/23	Blackjack	9200	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-45000 Total: 57500
9/11/23	Blackjack	(300)	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-44700 Total: 57200
9/14/23	Blackjack	3200	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-47900 Total: 60400
9/16/23	Blackjack	(5000)	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-42900 Total: 55400
9/18/23	Blackjack	18500	Baccarat-12500 Blackjack-61400 Total: 73900
9/21/23	Baccarat	23000	Baccarat-35500 Blackjack-61400 Total: 96900

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:49:57 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
9/23/23	Blackjack	(1100)	(1100)
9/24/23	Blackjack	7800	6700
9/25/23	Blackjack	(2200)	4500
9/25/23	Baccarat	97500	Baccarat-97500 Blackjack-4500 Total: 102000
9/29/23	Baccarat	(30000)	Baccarat-67500 Blackjack-4500 Total: 72000
10/1/23	Blackjack	8200	Baccarat-67500 Blackjack-12700 Total: 80200
10/3/23	Blackjack	1100	Baccarat-67500 Blackjack-13800 Total: 81300
10/7/23	Blackjack	600	Baccarat-67500 Blackjack-14400 Total: 81900
10/13/23	Blackjack	8000	Baccarat-67500 Blackjack-22400 Total: 89900
10/14/23	Baccarat	24500	Baccarat-92000 Blackjack-22400 Total: 114400
10/17/23	Baccarat	2500	Baccarat-92000 Blackjack-24900 Total: 116900
10/18/23	Baccarat	11500	Baccarat-103500 Blackjack-24900 Total: 128400
10/21/23	Blackjack	3500	Baccarat-103500 Blackjack-28400 Total: 131900
10/21/23	Baccarat	15500	Baccarat-119000 Blackjack-28400 Total-147400
10/23/23	Baccarat	1500	Baccarat-120500 Blackjack-28400 Total: 148900

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:50:09 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
10/25/23	Baccarat	(21000)	(21000)
10/26/23	Baccarat	26000	5000
10/27/23	Baccarat	13100	18100
10/29/23	Baccarat	3000	21100
10/29/23	Baccarat	1600	22700
10/30/23	Baccarat	11500	34200
10/31/23	Baccarat	(31000)	3200
11/3/23	Baccarat	4000	7200
11/5/23	Baccarat	21000	28200
11/5/23	Baccarat	6100	34300
11/8/23	Baccarat	7200	41500
11/9/23	Baccarat	9100	50600
11/10/23	Baccarat	11100	61700
11/10/23	Baccarat	6000	67700
11/12/23	Baccarat	11000	78700

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:50:35 AM permalink

DATE	GAME	RESULT	TOTAL
11/13/23	Baccarat	21000	21000
11/15/23	Baccarat	(26000)	(5000)
11/15/23	Unknown (Baccarat Assumed)	20000	15000
11/20/23	Baccarat	42000	57000
11/22/23	Baccarat	(32000)	25000
11/24/23	Blackjack	11000	Baccarat-25000 Blackjack-11000 Total: 36000
11/25/23	Blackjack	200	Baccarat-25000 Blackjack-11200 Total: 36200
11/26/23	Blackjack	2300	Baccarat-25000 Blackjack-13500 Total: 38500

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

MDawg

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Thanked by

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:57:19 AM permalink

I appreciate that Mission146 has been supplying these to me over the past week although quite a few and the latest ones came through just yesterday and I haven't had a chance to look at those yet, so let me look over the response I had been prepared before posting.

Meantime,

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

February 23rd, 2024 at 6:59:04 AM permalink

NOTES

Here are some notes related to the project; I understand that all results at once are a lot to take in (I should know).

I will most likely be ignoring any questions asked by anyone who is not the person to directly ask me to do this project; any such requests from that person would preferably be PM'ed as I intend to excuse myself from this thread now.

With that, here are a few quick notes:

1.) Is this truly comprehensive?

-Not exactly. For one thing, I might have missed something...but most sessions are a rounding error relative to the total. If I did miss anything, and I don't think I did, it was unintentional. Also, a few session $$$ outcomes (will be noted) were either semi-ambiguous or, in a few cases, not specifically reported at all. I'd prefer not to take guesses, so generally treated these as, '0.' There was at least one huge win AND one huge loss in this treatment.

-Also, there might be more session data outside of this forum; however, I only included session data for any such trips that a different forum was specifically referenced and readers specifically directed to go there for more details. I don't believe any trips from the second Adventures thread relate to any other forums.

2.) Why is one table so long?

-One table is so long because that data came exclusively from a different forum with very few posts between MDawg's posts; it was simply more efficient to put all of that in one table. Additionally, it's all from the end of the, 'Trip,' that consists of the Wizard meetup but is everything after the Wizard meetup.

3.) Could the information from the other forum be edited?

-In theory, it could, but that wouldn't be a good idea because I have screenshots of all, or almost all, relevant posts. I intend to keep these screenshots for seven days and, as long as nothing is specifically challenged by then, will take that to mean my postings will not be challenged and I can delete the screenshots.***

***I don't think this will be necessary as MDawg seems fine with my work anyway.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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February 23rd, 2024 at 7:16:18 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146

Final Results
Baccarat: $3037705-$3052705
Blackjack: $1560605
Total: $4598310-$4613310

I snipped this because it�s really what I was interested in. As far as the casinos are concerned, they are down likely another million or so in airfare, suites, limos, food, shows, Super Bowl/F1 tix, gifts, etc�.

Quite an impressive undertaking, Mission! And amazing results, MDawg. Spread out over 5-10 �stores� I assume?

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 7:26:55 AM permalink

Thanks!

These sessions were spread out over about a dozen or so casinos. When I first started in 2018-2019, maybe more like a half dozen or so, but I kept adding.

When MDawg says "or so" he's being deliberately vague.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

AxelWolf

AxelWolf

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February 23rd, 2024 at 8:52:39 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
Baccarat is a very interesting game.

All I know is that first years I played Baccarat I consistently killed the house, I mean I took them for well over a million, averaging a few hundred thousand a year net profit at Baccarat. And what is funny is that the only reason I was playing Bacc is because I was effectively banned from BJ at most of the casinos.

Then in the last year I gambled, about a decade ago, I started to lose heavily at Bacc., gave back over a hundred thousand. Then I quit.

Over the next decade that I did not gamble even a penny, I would still visit casinos, and occasionally I would stand behind a Baccarat shoe and watch it, and wonder how I ever won at this game. It's just not a game you may judge from the outside. When you are in it, betting real money, is the only real test. Sometimes your intuition is right on and you keep winning, and other times you lose far more than 50% of your bets. It is not logical, but this is my experience with the game.

And it comes back to what kind of shoe you are dealt - one that follows a pattern, or one that is random. I get what you are saying about how all the monkeys typing on all the typewriters may come up with Shakespeare, but I didn't play millions of shoes, so whatever patterns emerged emerged in far less than a statistically significant pool.

Here's one pattern that doesn't take a mathematician to describe: bank or player runs. If you are a believer in runs, as I am, and increase your bet on runs, as I do, and you run into runs, then you are going to kill the house. You get two banks and your mind tells you that there are many more coming, and you bet into them, if it happens, you are going to make a fortune. So right there is a simple example of a shoe with a pattern that will make you a lot of money, if your brain is wired to believe in it and accept it as it is happening.
link to original post

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 9:34:06 AM permalink

AxelWolf

1) Assumed that a million dollar session win player would cash out in cash. (SiegFried Roy) "Show me the money!"

2) Asked said alleged million dollar session winner for a "CTR" to prove that he won, implying that he thinks that a CTR is something that is handed to the player when cashing out. "He had to have a CTR." "There should be a CTR."

3) Apparently thinks that the markers I�ve posted with the signatures torn out of them haven�t been paid off yet and have just been taken out. How can you take someone who questions whether markers with the signatures torn out of them have been redeemed?

For these and other reasons, I discount anything he has to say on the subject of gaming.

Quote: MDawg

Obviously, it was incorrect to think that any seven figure winner would cash out in cash, obviously it was incorrect to think that a CTR is a piece of paper that would be anything a gambler could show to prove anything

AxelWolf even doubled down on this request for a CTR, and repeated it
Quote: AxelWolf
There should be a CTR.

In any case, if this thread is going to degenerate into A.Wolf's posting unrelated posts versus addressing the subject matter at hand, let's just close it now. That post he just quoted isn't even from the Adventures of MDawg threads.

I'd ask the same question.

Quote: SOOPOO
Are you drinking Axel?

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

Mental

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Posts: 1549

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February 23rd, 2024 at 9:41:29 AM permalink

Quote: Mental
Quote: Mission146
(snip)
The final tally refers to the running totals I have kept; yes, this will go through to include anything covered by the �Adventures� threads. I don�t actually know if TP is referenced in the second Adventures thread; if not, then nothing else will come from there. If so, then I might use it as a source again, but only for trips referenced by incorporation, by date.
link to original post
I wouldn't be interested in the running totals nor the final totals, only the histogram of reported session W/L results. It would not be shocking to me if it looked exactly like this:

link to original post

Okay, the histogram of the data that I scraped off of the text in MDawg threads looks almost exactly like the histogram of the data that Mission reported. I created a chart with the histogram of Missions session W/L amounts. Mission has many more data points than I had from scraping just this site. Also, my automatic scraping only found session results reported as a number that is the first text on a line in the post and that number begins with a '+' or '-' sign. Despite these differences, the shape of the histogram is virtually the same for my data and Mission's data.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to try to recreate the detailed shape of the session-result histogram. I assumed a player played blackjack only at a flat bet of $1000 using basic strategy and good Strip rules. I assumed that the session lengths were equally distributed between 100, 200, 300, and 400 hand sessions. I assumed that the player reported all winning sessions. I also assumed that the player randomly chose 10% of the losing sessions and reported only that tiny subset of losing sessions. In the chart below, the blue data are the Mission data. The red data are the simulated data for a ordinary flat-betting BJ player who selectively reports session results.

The chart certainly raises some questions in my mind. Why are the data so far away from being normally distributed? Could any conceivable betting system produce results like this? Everyone is entitled to have their own standard of credulity.

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 9:49:13 AM permalink

Assuming you pulled the data correctly and used every single session, your "chart" is a waste of time. You actually in the past couple hours pulled every single session result and inputted it into your graph? If so, I am honored.

I don't use any betting system. I don't Martingale I am just as likely to reduce my bet at Baccarat after a loss.

I do recall that someone was going to take up The MDawg Challenge on one of my bigger session wins, but that person chickened out and never even revealed his identity.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

AxelWolf

AxelWolf

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February 23rd, 2024 at 9:58:48 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
I went ahead and calculated the log base 2 of the number 2 billion, and came up with just under 31 doubles. So, at 31 doubles of $1. (which would mean I believe at the 32nd bank or player, with the bettor betting the opposite) we get to above a two billion dollar bet.

There are between 75 and 85 hands in a typical Baccarat shoe. I think the chance of there being a 32 bank or player run is definitely astronomical, but not by any means impossible.

I wonder if, in that simulation done, if it was done simulating a sort of "continuous shuffle" where each hand was independent. The proper way to do the simulation would be with six or eight decks of cards at a time, and then starting anew with six or eight more decks.

In any case, there's no need to get to the theoretical. On my last trip to Vegas, where I was there almost three weeks and played Baccarat most every (but not every) day, I experienced at least an 11 and on many days 13 bank or player run each day that I did play, and this was with playing anywhere from only a couple to ten shoes in a day. So, if you were doubling the table minimum $100. you'd reach the table max of $20,000. after only nine players or banks (against you). Even if there were no $20K limit at all, after 13 banks (or players) against you, you'd be betting now over $400K on a hand, which is higher than the limits that the casinos give even the players with $5M credit lines.

Stepping back from all this "cancellation" nonsense, I think part of the reason I win so consistently at Baccarat is that I BELIEVE in the runs, and have this uncanny sense of when a run is about to begin.
Even if I knew nothing at all, and had no sense or intuition, if I lose a couple or max three times against a run, I will switch over to it. So, I MAKE money on the runs. I feel like a run is about to come "all the time" and the fact of the matter is, that almost all shoes have at least one good run in them, at least the shoes I play, do. (Keep in mind that a chop, player bank player bank player bank is also a run.)
I've noticed that many players bet against runs or get off the runs because they think it will stop. I never get off a run. I might decrease my bet at some point if I've cleaned up enough, but like as not, once I get to a certain point, "I'm GONE" will keep pressing because I no longer have anything to lose I'm so far ahead.

Another important element, I think, to my Baccarat winning, is that after I experience a run and clean up, I LEAVE. I don't just sit there thinking that more will necessarily come. I might go ahead and see if a parallel run will arrive (such as when I hit the 22 players followed by one bank followed by 26 players), but I won't sit there for the remainder of the shoe trying to make more money if it (meaning a run) doesn't happen again quickly. I have a sense for when "this is as good as it's going to get" and I color up my chips, and leave, done for that day.

I realize that standing behind a Baccarat table and looking at the board, it's easy to think "how could anyone make money at this game?" but the proof in the pudding is that I can, and do. The fact of the matter is, that there are two different types of Bacc. shoes that present themselves, some are random, with no pattern, and others follow a definite discernible pattern. The trick comes in realizing when you're playing a pattern shoe (and pressing your bet, and following the pattern), and when you're playing a random shoe (and reducing your bet, or leaving, or demanding a shuffle of a new deck).

Naturally compared to say BJ, if you're presented with a deck where the dealer busts over and over and you keep getting twenties, it's much easier to follow "that pattern" (which involves simply pressing your bet, to win), versus "following a Bacc. shoe pattern" (which involves picking the right side, to follow the pattern), but still, in both cases, it may be done, when the opportunity presents itself. Gambling comes down to realizing when you're winning (and pressing your bet) and when you're losing (and reducing your bet, or leaving). It sounds so simple ("Bet more when you're winning") but all the time, I see people high fiving and winning consistently, and sitting there with their minimum bets, while the same players are jumping their bets up like crazy at a time when the atmosphere is grim, and quiet, and the cards are running well against them.
link to original post

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 10:06:08 AM permalink

Not one of these posts you've made today is from The Adventures of MDawg threads.

Quote: mdawg
I'd ask the same question.

Quote: SOOPOO
Are you drinking Axel?

But by the way, "Stepping back from all this 'cancellation' nonsense, I think part of the reason I win so consistently at Baccarat is that I BELIEVE in the runs, and have this uncanny sense of when a run is about to begin." -

how do you explain that in the Wizard witnessed run, I experienced an 8 Player run, the only run of the entire shoe, and I hit every one of those, I did not miss the first, I did not miss the last, and I pressed all the way into it?

Just because I don't explain exactly how I know what I know, doesn't mean I don't know.

A.Wolf, just go back to thinking that markers with the signature torn out of them might not yet be redeemed. And asking players for those CTRs to prove whether or not they won!

Anyway, I would kindly ask that you put all these random quotes somewhere else, not in unrelated threads.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

Mental

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Posts: 1549

Joined: Dec 10, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 10:17:12 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
Assuming you pulled the data correctly and used every single session, your "chart" is a waste of time. You actually in the past couple hours pulled every single session result and inputted it into your graph? If so, I am honored.

I don't use any betting system. I don't Martingale I am just as likely to reduce my bet at Baccarat after a loss.

I do recall that someone was going to take up The MDawg Challenge on one of my bigger session wins, but that person chickened out and never even revealed his identity.
link to original post

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury. The prosecution's expert witness has shown that my clients accounting is statistically impossible unless there is some sort of selective reporting taking place. I don't understand any of that. I remind the jury that I have a longstanding MDawg challenge regarding the veracity of my client's accounting. To this date, nobody has won the MDawg Challenge. You must acquit my client.

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 10:28:17 AM permalink

You didn't answer whether or not you input every single session report in two hours. If so, again, I am honored!

And, sure...why not! I'm game:

Just like your chart, you have a habit of deciding things in your mind and then a posteriori claiming it means this or that.

M.tal, I am willing to undertake a monetary challenge for any session report you like. I leave it up for 24 hours. Pick the most "statistically impossible" session or series of sessions and let's go. If you want to do a challenge for an agreed number for multiple sessions, let's do that too. I believe, if enough money is involved and it is worth my time, I can get the session reports results still. 24 hours, I am not playing these days so I'd like to pick up some smash from something gaming related.

Or, if you've had your say and are afraid to undertake a monetary challenge, go back to pushing dose buttons. One day, you're boasting about how you made low five figures before dining, next you're bemoaning that it's not working and you're not winning. Whatever you are doing is obviously far weaker than whatever I am doing, let's leave it at that.

I have losing sessions too, there are times when I've doubted, but it had nothing to do with doubting my ability, it just had to do with factors out of my control.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

lilredrooster

lilredrooster

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Posts: 7068

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:00:16 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg

how do you explain that in the Wizard witnessed run, I experienced an 8 Player run, the only run of the entire shoe, and I hit every one of those, I did not miss the first, I did not miss the last, and I pressed all the way into it?

𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙗𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚 𝙄 𝙙𝙤𝙣'𝙩 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨𝙣'𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣 𝙄 𝙙𝙤𝙣'𝙩 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬

link to original post

so, doubters need to explain you hitting 8 in a row witnessed by the Wizard
and you believe that proves something_________?__________sorry it doesn't prove anything - those are just 8 results out of more than trillions

re the emboldened - you make it easy for yourself - you make amazing claims - you don't have to prove them - you just say 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 - and people should accept it

in this world people don't get off so easily - if they are able to do something fantastic people need to see and understand how it's done - how it's accomplished - or many will not accept it

yes, I don't gamble anymore - but I've spent hundreds of hours at the tables - I still enjoy analyzing gambling and believe my comments have some value

.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

Mental

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:03:04 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
You didn't answer whether or not you input every single session report in two hours. If so, again, I am honored!

And, sure...why not! I'm game:

Just like your chart, you have a habit of deciding things in your mind and then a posteriori claiming it means this or that.

M.tal, I am willing to undertake a monetary challenge for any session report you like. I leave it up for 24 hours. Pick the most "statistically impossible" session or series of sessions and let's go. If you want to do a challenge for an agreed number for multiple sessions, let's do that too. I believe, if enough money is involved and it is worth my time, I can get the session reports results still. 24 hours, I am not playing these days so I'd like to pick up some smash from something gaming related.

Or, if you've had your say and are afraid to undertake a monetary challenge, go back to pushing dose buttons. One day, you're boasting about how you made low five figures before dining, next you're bemoaning that it's not working and you're not winning. Whatever you are doing is obviously far weaker than whatever I am doing, let's leave it at that.

I have losing sessions too, there are times when I've doubted, but it had nothing to do with doubting my ability, it just had to do with factors out of my control.
link to original post

No, it took me 15 minutes to create the histogram of your data. Anybody should be able to copy Mission's charts into a spreadsheet and confirm my results. Even you could do it. You put the data out there for everyone to see. Now, you cannot take it back.

When someone resorts to ad hominem attacks, I assume they have nothing to offer in rebuttal to the evidence.

When did I says I was not winning? I remember writing that 2024 would be more challenging. So far, I have met those challenges and I am very happy with how things are shaking out with regards to variance in 2024. I don't win every month. But, I have been a winner every quarter since I started playing online seriously. By 'seriously', I mean after I did more than sign up for a few online casinos and have a look around without doing much play.

I do not accept that it is 'obvious' that what I am doing is 'far weaker' than whatever you doing. What makes it obvious?

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:08:28 AM permalink

You have 23 hours left to take up the proposed challenge.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

Mental

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:25:45 AM permalink

Quote: MDawg
You have 23 hours left to take up the proposed challenge.
link to original post

I actually believe that the winning sessions that you reported are essentially accurate. I would not quibble about minor discrepancies. I simply cannot think of a way that these results could reflect the total distribution of results of any player, be they degen gamblers, informed amateurs, clairvoyants, or APs. It must reflect a lack of imagination on my part.

We are all allowed to speculate and interpret evidence for ourselves. You wrote a 3500+ word post earlier in this thread speculating that I must have instigated this thread and Mission's review of your threads. How did that speculation turn out?

I would never undertake a challenge to prove that some anonymous person gambled somewhere in the world on some unspecified date, lost money in that session, and then neglected to report that result. The idea is absurd on the face of it.

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.

djtehch34t

djtehch34t

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:30:54 AM permalink

Quote: Mental
Quote: Mental
Quote: Mission146
(snip)
The final tally refers to the running totals I have kept; yes, this will go through to include anything covered by the �Adventures� threads. I don�t actually know if TP is referenced in the second Adventures thread; if not, then nothing else will come from there. If so, then I might use it as a source again, but only for trips referenced by incorporation, by date.
link to original post
I wouldn't be interested in the running totals nor the final totals, only the histogram of reported session W/L results. It would not be shocking to me if it looked exactly like this:

link to original post

Okay, the histogram of the data that I scraped off of the text in MDawg threads looks almost exactly like the histogram of the data that Mission reported. I created a chart with the histogram of Missions session W/L amounts. Mission has many more data points than I had from scraping just this site. Also, my automatic scraping only found session results reported as a number that is the first text on a line in the post and that number begins with a '+' or '-' sign. Despite these differences, the shape of the histogram is virtually the same for my data and Mission's data.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to try to recreate the detailed shape of the session-result histogram. I assumed a player played blackjack only at a flat bet of $1000 using basic strategy and good Strip rules. I assumed that the session lengths were equally distributed between 100, 200, 300, and 400 hand sessions. I assumed that the player reported all winning sessions. I also assumed that the player randomly chose 10% of the losing sessions and reported only that tiny subset of losing sessions. In the chart below, the blue data are the Mission data. The red data are the simulated data for a ordinary flat-betting BJ player who selectively reports session results.

The chart certainly raises some questions in my mind. Why are the data so far away from being normally distributed? Could any conceivable betting system produce results like this? Everyone is entitled to have their own standard of credulity.
link to original post

Quick question... Why should we assume that betting results should be normally distributed? Consider someone who is playing with both a stop loss and a win goal. If they always play until either of these is reached, then all results will be one of those two values. Or, a martingaler will have a lot of small wins and a few large losses.

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 11:31:42 AM permalink

Quote: Mental
Quote: MDawg
You have 23 hours left to take up the proposed challenge.
link to original post
I actually believe that the winning sessions that you reported are essentially accurate. I would not quibble about minor discrepancies. I simply cannot think of a way that these results could reflect the total distribution of results of any player, be they degen gamblers, informed amateurs, clairvoyants, or APs. It must reflect a lack of imagination on my part.

We are all allowed to speculate and interpret evidence for ourselves. You wrote a 3500+ word post earlier in this thread speculating that I must have instigated this thread and Mission's review of your threads. How did that speculation turn out?

I would never undertake a challenge to prove that some anonymous person gambled somewhere in the world on some unspecified date, lost money in that session, and then neglected to report that result. The idea is absurd on the face of it.
link to original post

Well that's a much more seasoned and measured response than the prior one.

In any case, as far as I know, no one in the history of these gambling forums has posted more proof than I.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

Mental

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February 23rd, 2024 at 12:04:19 PM permalink

Quote: djtehch34t

Quick question... Why should we assume that betting results should be normally distributed? Consider someone who is playing with both a stop loss and a win goal. If they always play until either of these is reached, then all results will be one of those two values. Or, a martingaler will have a lot of small wins and a few large losses.
link to original post

The central limit theorem says that the sampling distribution of the mean will always be normally distributed, as long as the sample size is large enough. Regardless of whether the population has a normal, Poisson, binomial, or any other distribution, the sampling distribution of the mean will be normal.

But we are not talking about sampling from one population. The gambler has the ability to sample from different populations by employing a betting system that is dependent on the current session bankroll, and then total those subsamples to get a non-gaussian distribution. This means that the distribution will not tend toward the normal distribution, but will tend towards whatever distribution betting system was designed to create. For Martingale, that distribution is a large number of small wins and a small (but incredibly costly) number of massive losses.

Given enough time, a gambler can avoid creating any sessions with small to moderate losses. They just need to continue playing after the intended time limit of any session and ramp up the bet size until they either win or lose big. The distribution embedded in Mission's tables has a very small number of losses. What it does not have is any significant number of large losses. Any betting system designed to reduce the number of sessions ending in small to medium losses must necessarily result in an increased number of sessions with large losses. If this were not true, it would mean the gambler has found a way to increase his overall EV simply by employing a betting system.

Now, there are plenty of people who contend that betting systems change the house edge. MDawg has repeatedly said that losing players pressing their losses causes the house edge to increase. I simply choose not to engage in math debates with these sorts of people.

At any rate, MDawg has not stated that he uses a betting system to alter his results distribution. I simulated one plausible system that would explain the histogram, but it is a selective-reporting system, not a betting system. If anyone can find a betting system or AP system that would explain the results histogram, please show it to us. I have already shown my best attempt to explain the data. Time for someone else to step up with alternate theories supported by data.

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 12:08:57 PM permalink

Quote: Mental
MDawg has repeatedly said that losing players pressing their losses causes the house edge to increase.
link to original post

Where did I say that?

Please quote.

I know what I said, and it was not that.

This sort of imprecision draws into question anything you say or claim. Same as when l.rooster brought up two posts of mine from 2021 as evidence that I had said them in reaction to something Wizard just posted a few days ago.

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 12:40:51 PM permalink

What this thread is missing is the coolly analytic, patience of Job, Socratic methodology of CoachBelly.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

lilredrooster

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:04:02 PM permalink

Quote: MDawg

Same as when l.rooster brought up two posts of mine from 2021 as evidence that I had said them in reaction to something Wizard just posted a few days ago.
link to original post

I apologize if what you posted about your claim of 60 hands in a row was not the result of the Wizard's post as I indicated -
I edited out the reference to the Wizard in my OP -
but after your claim that you won "some sixty hands in a row" in the very first post of that thread you did later post this:

"Could I swear it was 60 hands in a row______No"

"Could I swear I did not lose a single hand along the way?____-No"

and you did not address your changing version of winning every single max bet after the Wizard's post about it - this:

Quote: MDawg
However that is what happened during that very short trip, and a couple other very short trips,
.link to original post

note how he changed his description of these trips after the Wizard's post

this is what he wrote in his OP

Quote: MDawg
. and somehow winning all of my maxes and losing only the minimums, doing this consistently for days on end and multiple trips
link to original post

"doing this consistently for days on end" suggests a long time - however he now calls it "that very short trip"

in his OP he posts "multiple trips"____________the new version is "a couple of other very short trips"

.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:13:31 PM permalink

I thought I did?

Quote: MDawg
In any case, there is no inconsistency and what we're talking about is from a couple decades or so ago. When I posted it, September 2018, I was referring back to that play from a very long time ago, from a decade or so prior to 2018. Back then, a long trip for me was a couple weeks. Nowadays, a long trip for me is at least three months. In that context, "days on end" back then was a very short trip and also refers to the sum of "days on end" with more than one short trip strung together.
link to original post

What I was saying is that back then (two decades or so ago) "days on end" meant something different from today. In September 2018, when I started up play again, the only context I had was from the distant past (pre- decade or so hiatus).

Today I've had trips of up to many months in length.

Back then a very long trip for me was two weeks.

So, days on end meant something different then than today.

As I referred (today) to those trips from two decades or so ago, I referred to them as very short trips in the context of today.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:29:46 PM permalink

I'd like to post my over all response, but if there are other questions I will wait.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

lilredrooster

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:32:49 PM permalink

.
I looked back at the 60 hands in a row thread
this is from the Wizard before your "clarification" of your claim:

Quote: Wizard

Hmmm. I'm going to give you a chance to retract that before I pounce all over it.

Let me say that yes, I know the odds are a little different for other sets of rules. I am just making an estimate here.

The probability of winning 60 hands in a row, starting at any one point, is 1 in 107,294,826,280,306,000,000.

Likewise, I think your memory, or your math, is not perfect.
link to original post

also, your explanation about the "winning every max bet" post does not account for why your first called them "multiple trips" and later called them " "a couple of other trips" after the Wizard posted

.

Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 23, 2024

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

Wizard
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Wizard

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:37:53 PM permalink

Somebody asked for a count of winning and losing sessions. To help see everything in one post, I present the following summary table of each day broken down by game. I would like to thank Mission for help in creating this table. It told him I didn't want any punctuation marks in the amount fields and to make his best guess where he wasn't sure. It is so big that I'm putting it in spoiler tags.

Date	Baccarat	Blackjack
11/15/2019	24000
11/21/2019	40000
11/24/2019	1400
11/25/2019	1560
12/29/2019		0
12/30/2019		1350
1/1/2020		600
1/2/2020		1000
1/4/2020	5300	-5000
1/5/2020	710
1/6/2020	450
1/7/2010	100
1/8/2020	6100
1/10/2020	1325
1/11/2020	3500
?	10565
?	31450
?	1200
?	4000
?	400
?	-20000
?	5000
?	5000
?	1000
?	2000
?	700
?	2000
?	-3800
?	5000
?	3000
?	300
?	500
?	2000
?	-200
?	1500
?	6000
?	5200
?	6500
?	5500
?	3800
?	13000
?	10000
?	5000
?	-46300
?	10000
?	9800
?	2000
?	3000
?	1000
?	500
?	5200
?	2200
?	3000
?	3200
?	5200
?	4400
?	4000
?	4500
?	18000
3/16/2021	9700
3/17/2021	8200
3/18/2021	10400
3/19/2021	2000
3/21/2021	1165
3/21/2024	10950
3/22/2021	4030
3/23/2021	6000
3/24/2021	3300
3/26/2021	5025
3/27/2021	2525
3/28/2021	100
3/29/2021	2000
4/1/2021	0
4/1/2021	8210
4/2/2021	2300
4/3/2021	4270
4/8/2021	15000
4/9/2021	5700
4/10/2021	10900
4/11/2021	4425
4/13/2021	-10000
4/21/2021	16000
4/21/2021	3900
4/21/2021	3300
4/21/2021	2000
4/21/2021	2000
4/21/2021	2200
4/21/2021	4800
4/22/2021	6915
4/22/2021	16500
4/23/2021	5800
4/25/2021	21000
4/25/2021	3000
4/26/2021	11000
4/27/2021	1500
4/29/2021	2000
5/2/2021	2000
5/2/2021	4700
5/4/2021	4100
5/4/2021	5100
5/5/2021	1000
5/6/2021	4500
5/8/2021	-68000
5/10/2021	0
5/12/2021	25000
5/13/2021	6025
5/14/2021	0
5/15/2021	3000
5/16/2021	10500
5/17/2021	6700
5/19/2021	13700
5/20/2021	10500
5/21/2021	19000
5/23/2021	0
5/26/2021	5000
5/27/2021	7100
5/29/2021	500
5/29/2021	49000
6/1/2021	5500
6/2/2021	7400
6/4/2021	8000
6/4/2021	51000
6/8/2021	4500
6/8/2021	6125
6/9/2021	8125
6/10/2021	5300
6/12/2021	6000
6/12/2021	16000
6/16/2021	6300
6/16/2021	10400
6/17/2021	20000
6/18/2021	4035
6/20/2021	20400
6/22/2021	8000
6/23/2021	3250
6/25/2021	-115000
6/25/2021	11600
6/27/2024	15000
7/2/2021	7300
7/7/2021	10900
7/10/2021	27000
7/12/2021	0
7/13/2021	24000
7/14/2021	3000
7/15/2021	7525
7/16/2021	14425
7/18/2021	-34000
8/4/2021	6600
8/6/2021	850
8/8/2021	5515
8/10/2021	675
8/13/2021	34000
8/14/2021	1530
8/15/2021	75
8/17/2021	3025
8/18/2021	36600
8/19/2021	15
8/22/2021	-3000
8/22/2021	1575
8/23/2021	11875
8/24/2021	13900
8/25/2021	1750
8/27/2021	5400
8/28/2021	0
9/2/2021	9200
9/3/2021	15
9/5/2021	-7000
9/6/2021	5200
9/8/2021	6500
9/10/2021	-11500
9/12/2021		2100
9/12/2021		3225
9/12/2021		16200
9/16/2021	14100
9/17/2021		56000
9/19/2021	0
9/19/2021	83000
9/21/2021		15315
9/22/2021		5725
9/23/2021		21250
9/25/2021		3125
9/26/2021		-6550
9/27/2021		8275
9/30/2021		4215
10/1/2021		2615
10/1/2021		2625
10/2/2021		1800
10/3/2021		5000
10/3/2021		500
10/4/2021		5400
10/5/2021		750
10/7/2021		-15000
10/12/2021		5000
10/14/2021		500
10/14/2021		5275
10/15/2021		5900
10/16/2021		5400
10/18/2021		51200
10/19/2021		101000
10/25/2021		15500
10/25/2021		20200
10/25/2021		3500
10/26/2021		10300
10/28/2021		10300
10/29/2021		1000
10/31/2021		-29000
11/1/2021		35000
11/4/2021		20475
11/4/2021		11500
11/6/2021		0
11/7/2021		1075
11/8/2021		10500
11/9/2021		-28000
11/10/2021		3600
11/11/2021		900
11/12/2021		400
11/14/2021		15000
11/15/2021		-160
11/16/2021		7300
11/17/2021		12500
11/18/2021		7500
11/19/2021		5500
11/20/2021		-18000
11/22/2021		30000
11/23/2021		20000
11/25/2021		10500
11/27/2021		11800
11/27/2021	5000
11/28/2021	9840
11/29/2021	10000
11/30/2021	17075
12/1/2021	12100
12/3/2021	2200
12/23/2021	10000
12/23/2021	26700
12/25/2021	730
12/26/2021	10725
12/27/2021	21800
12/29/2021	17500
12/31/2021	-12000
1/3/2022	21400
1/3/2022	10000
1/4/2022	19500
1/6/2022		13500
1/7/2022		10200
1/8/2022		10600
1/10/2022		-19000
1/12/2022		-14000
1/14/2022		57000
1/15/2022		21950
1/16/2022		22300
1/18/2022		950
1/20/2022		10600
1/21/2022		1950
1/23/2022		10900
1/24/2022		-20000
1/27/2022	51250
1/28/2022	50385
1/28/2022		1650
1/29/2022	4700
2/6/2022		-5000
2/7/2022	23500
2/7/2022		7250
2/8/2022	-7500
2/11/2022	2075
2/12/2022	22700
2/13/2022		4100
2/15/2022		-400
2/17/2022		22500
2/19/2022		24000
2/20/2022		57200
2/20/2022		21200
2/21/2022		23500
2/22/2022		13200
2/25/2022		11200
2/26/2022		21300
2/26/2022		21600
2/27/2022	-7500
3/1/2022	6525
3/1/2022		11500
3/3/2022	37200
3/4/2022		19300
3/5/2022	2300
3/6/2022	27000
3/6/2022	11300
3/7/2022		15100
3/8/2022		23200
3/25/2022	16100
3/25/2022	33200
3/27/2022	-34000
3/28/2022	106000
3/29/2022	29500
3/29/2022	6600
3/30/2022	57000
3/31/2022	11100
5/7/2022	3525
5/7/2022	6600
5/8/2022	7100
5/10/2022	-23000
5/11/2022	18000
5/12/2022	11500
5/12/2022	63500
5/14/2022	2100
5/19/2022	28000
5/20/2022	24000
5/20/2022	12100
5/21/2022	22500
5/29/2022	18000
5/30/2022		11500
5/31/2022		27500
6/1/2022		11900
6/2/2022		38900
6/4/2022		31500
6/5/2022		10600
6/5/2022		23800
6/6/2022		41900
6/8/2022		64700
6/9/2022		18900
6/10/2022		6900
6/11/2022		43200
6/11/2022	54800
6/12/2022	16800
6/14/2022	-71000
6/15/2022	12000
6/15/2022	8200
6/17/2022	-61000
6/17/2022	54000
6/19/2022	-41000
6/21/2022	43800
6/25/2022	-73000
6/26/2022	43000
6/28/2022	226000
6/28/2022	1100
6/28/2022	-85000
6/29/2022	17500
7/1/2022	57000
7/1/2022	35500
7/3/2022	56800
8/23/2022		3850
8/24/2022		3100
8/25/2022		2800
8/27/2022		2200
8/28/2022		1450
8/28/2022		18200
8/29/2022		8560
8/30/2022		-15200
8/31/2022	5300
8/31/2022	8750
9/18/2022	7600
9/18/2022	-18000
9/18/2022	41000
9/20/2022	14200
9/21/2022	-21000
9/21/2022	11200
9/22/2022	7700
9/23/2022	6300
9/24/2022	-11000
9/24/2022	6200
9/25/2022	7100
9/26/2022	13200
9/27/2022	6500
10/1/2022	11400
10/2/2022	4200
10/3/2022	9300
10/5/2022	110000
10/7/2022	23000
10/9/2022	37000
10/10/2022	2000
10/11/2022	23000
10/14/2022	11000
10/15/2022	20000
10/17/2022	27500
10/19/2022	-61000
10/19/2022	7000
10/24/2022	-35000
10/24/2022	15000
10/27/2022	77000
10/28/2022	23000
10/31/2022	31000
11/1/2022	28000
11/3/2022	26000
11/6/2022	1500
11/7/2022	26000
11/8/2022	62000
11/10/2022	26500
11/13/2022	32000
11/14/2022	52000
11/17/2022	-29000
11/19/2022	500
11/20/2022	-45000
11/22/2022	52000
11/23/2022	-85000
11/26/2022	26000
12/3/2022	19800
12/5/2022	6500
12/6/2022	22000
12/8/2022	13700
12/8/2022	5100
12/10/2022	35000
12/10/2022	36000
12/12/2022	-41000
12/12/2022	36000
12/13/2022	-56000
1/28/2023	6500
1/28/2023	15500
1/28/2023	14800
1/29/2023	-24000
1/30/2023	11000
2/1/2023	10700
2/1/2023	22000
2/3/2023	6800
2/3/2023	-28000
2/3/2023	8200
2/4/2023		36700
2/6/2023		11000
3/25/2023		4200
3/26/2023		-2200
3/27/2023		5600
3/29/2023		11100
3/30/2023		3300
4/2/2023		110
4/3/2023		850
4/6/2023		13800
4/8/2023		2200
4/28/2023		3300
4/30/2023		7200
5/3/2023		-1500
5/5/2023		4100
5/5/2023		1850
5/7/2023		600
5/7/2023		1200
5/9/2023		1550
5/18/2023		7250
5/20/2023		1700
5/20/2023		1800
5/22/2023		1200
6/15/2023		13000
6/16/2023		17100
6/17/2023		51000
6/18/2023		16000
6/18/2023		2100
6/20/2023		2300
6/21/2023		6500
6/22/2023		130
6/24/2023		3500
6/24/2023		6900
6/25/2023		1500
6/27/2023		-18000
6/27/2023	3200
6/29/2023	23000
7/1/2023	26500
7/4/2023	-41000
7/4/2023	1100
7/6/2023	16500
7/7/2023	21000
7/7/2023	-35500
7/10/2023		10200
7/10/2023		14500
7/12/2023		13200
7/14/2023		-14000
7/15/2023	37500
7/16/2023	-25000
9/1/2023		35000
9/1/2023		-11000
9/3/2023		2000
9/4/2023		6500
9/7/2023		4100
9/10/2023		9200
9/11/2023		-300
9/14/2023		3200
9/16/2023		-5000
9/18/2023		18500
9/21/2023		23000
9/23/2023		-1100
9/24/2023		7800
9/25/2023		-2200
9/25/2023	97500
9/29/2023	-30000
10/1/2023		8200
10/3/2023		1100
10/7/2023		600
10/13/2023		8000
10/14/2023	24500
10/17/2023	2500
10/18/2023	11500
10/21/2023		3500
10/21/2023	15500
10/23/2023	1500
10/25/2023	-21000
10/26/2023	26000
10/27/2023	13100
10/29/2023	3000
10/29/2023	1600
10/30/2023	11500
10/31/2023	-31000
11/3/2023	4000
11/5/2023	21000
11/5/2023	6100
11/8/2023	7200
11/9/2023	9100
11/10/2023	11100
11/10/2023	6000
11/12/2023	11000
11/13/2023	21000
11/15/2023	-26000
11/15/2023	20000
11/20/2023	42000
11/22/2023	-32000
11/24/2023		11000
11/25/2023		200
11/26/2023		2300
Total	3010265	1617035

Here are some various statistics, including count of winning and losing days by game and combined.

Statistic	Baccarat	Blackjack	Total
Maximum	226000	101000	226000
Minimum	-115000	-29000	-115000
Wins	293	147	440
Losses	41	22	63
Pct Wins	87.7%	87.0%	87.5%

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

AxelWolf

AxelWolf

Threads: 169
Posts: 22615

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:38:00 PM permalink

To The Wizard and anyone else(Nathan/Karen) who might believe.

I am dead certain MDawgs reports will show highly improbable results.

Perhaps a Legitimate Advantage Player could achieve winning at an abnormally high frequency.

Does this sound like a legitimate Advantage Player

Quote: MDawg
The way to win at Baccarat has little to do with betting systems, other than the general truth which applies also to BJ, of "do not flat bet."

I have played Bacc. for YEARS and the way to win is to be patient, wait for the runs or consistent patterns that emerge in shoes, and press your bet into them. On a good shoe, the trend is your friend. On a random shoe, there is no trend. Quit!

How do you know when a run or consistent pattern is happening? You just feel it. It's not based on emotion per se, it's based on a sense of recognizing when you are winning.

Leave when ahead.

If you are losing, quit...take a long break (even a full day, or two) and come back and attack the loss in segments if it is large, or all at once if small. Don't chase! DO NOT follow the adage of most gamblers, which is "but I just need one hand to turn it around."

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/31619-misconception-about-basic-strategy/4/#post696672
link to original post

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

rainman

rainman

Threads: 19
Posts: 1900

Joined: Mar 28, 2012

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February 23rd, 2024 at 1:47:02 PM permalink

Quote: MDawg
What this thread is missing is the coolly analytic, patience of Job, Socratic methodology of CoachBelly.
link to original post

I get the feeling he's still around. You listen to metal? Here's a favorite of mine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnKhsTXoKCI

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 1:49:22 PM permalink

That's a post from well before the inception of the Adventures of MDawg I thread. In it I refer to gaming from a couple decades or so ago.

At the time of that post, I hadn't even really started playing again after my decade or so hiatus, so I had nothing to discuss other than from the past.

If you insist on cluttering the current discussion with things from over twenty years ago, we may create a new thread entitled, "Things MDawg was talking about from the early 2000s (or so)."

As far as the general concept of "quitting when you are ahead," the debate we have had over this in recent times was in the context of over the brilliant reality of always quitting while behind will result in nothing but losses. 😇

But hey, why don't you take over this thread and keep posting things I said from the past referring to matters from the distant past. You typically try hard not to let anyone get a word in edgewise in person, why would it be any different online?

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

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Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 2:13:28 PM permalink

My goal when I started up playing again was to win 100% of the time. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way.

I apologize but it's just hard to muster up the desire to respond to this Magister character when established forum members seem to think that he's not a legitimate forum member. So if I ignore you from here on, that's why. Sorry, pal, you have to earn the right to get a response out of MDawg and apparently sneaking onto a forum in disguise when you appear to be someone banned from the past is not the way.

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

Threads: 123
Posts: 11483

Joined: Aug 8, 2010

February 23rd, 2024 at 2:57:25 PM permalink

Quote: djtehch34t
Quote: Mental
Quote: Mental
Quote: Mission146
(snip)
The final tally refers to the running totals I have kept; yes, this will go through to include anything covered by the �Adventures� threads. I don�t actually know if TP is referenced in the second Adventures thread; if not, then nothing else will come from there. If so, then I might use it as a source again, but only for trips referenced by incorporation, by date.
link to original post
I wouldn't be interested in the running totals nor the final totals, only the histogram of reported session W/L results. It would not be shocking to me if it looked exactly like this:

link to original post

Okay, the histogram of the data that I scraped off of the text in MDawg threads looks almost exactly like the histogram of the data that Mission reported. I created a chart with the histogram of Missions session W/L amounts. Mission has many more data points than I had from scraping just this site. Also, my automatic scraping only found session results reported as a number that is the first text on a line in the post and that number begins with a '+' or '-' sign. Despite these differences, the shape of the histogram is virtually the same for my data and Mission's data.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to try to recreate the detailed shape of the session-result histogram. I assumed a player played blackjack only at a flat bet of $1000 using basic strategy and good Strip rules. I assumed that the session lengths were equally distributed between 100, 200, 300, and 400 hand sessions. I assumed that the player reported all winning sessions. I also assumed that the player randomly chose 10% of the losing sessions and reported only that tiny subset of losing sessions. In the chart below, the blue data are the Mission data. The red data are the simulated data for a ordinary flat-betting BJ player who selectively reports session results.

The chart certainly raises some questions in my mind. Why are the data so far away from being normally distributed? Could any conceivable betting system produce results like this? Everyone is entitled to have their own standard of credulity.
link to original post

Quick question... Why should we assume that betting results should be normally distributed? Consider someone who is playing with both a stop loss and a win goal. If they always play until either of these is reached, then all results will be one of those two values. Or, a martingaler will have a lot of small wins and a few large losses.
link to original post

I won $117 on my -EV PaiGow foray today. After the first hour there was a ZERO percent chance I�d walk away a loser. Was up over $200 at that time. If I started losing (I did) I�d stop up some amount between zero and 25. Up. The greatest likelihood is I�d be up more than zero and less than 25. Got lucky on my �I gotta leave in a few minutes� bet. But if you made a histogram of my sessions they wouldn�t be close to any �normal� distribution. I stand by my assessment, that if you don�t believe MDawg hasn�t been winning millions year after year, your histogram charting does not help (nor hurt) your hypothesis.

And big Dawg, please stop quoting me asking Axel about drinking wholly out of context. My question was in response to ONE SPECIFIC post he made. The vast majority of Axel�s posts are among the most valuable on the forum.

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 3:01:01 PM permalink

As far as A.Wolf when he gets in these "repeating the same sort of thing over and over" states....

But otherwise, yes SooPoo, exactly as far as "distribution" of session results. Sometimes people get so lost in complex hypothesis (I won't even deign to call it theory) that they lose sight of the simple reality that is staring them in the face.

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 3:24:23 PM permalink

For example my stock trades. I refuse to sell at a loss, and the stocks I pick all eventually hit new ATHs. I average in too.

Even in cases where I've bought in and experienced a HUGE dump, the very next morning I've learned that if I buy in a LOT more stock first thing, the stock usually experiences a "panic" dip buying rally and next thing you know, you're over all in the green, while if you had just sat there staring at your loss without averaging in, you'd be stuck for anywhere from days to weeks (or in very rare circumstances, months). Of course, yes, to make any decent money doing that you need millions in buying power.

But still, it's not hard to do when you pick the right stocks and have the buying power and guts to average in if needed.

Why so hard to understand? My stock trade "distribution" of results would be all a certain way, so what?

Even for peeps who just "buy and mold" which I do that too (just trade additional shares of the same stocks I hold long term), if they pick half way decent stocks in a bull run, which we have been in a bull run for a long time now, why should anyone be surprised that they are experiencing nothing but results in a certain direction?

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

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February 23rd, 2024 at 3:56:31 PM permalink

Official MDawg answer to follow....

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

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February 23rd, 2024 at 3:56:42 PM permalink

This has been a five year mission.

All of my session reports are accurate. However, I believe the total number of hands played, and the average wager per hand, would be required to make sense of the results. There were losing sessions, including huge losing sessions along the way. Some of those losing sessions were not in the Adventures of MDawg thread, they were posted elsewhere at WOV or at other forums, so those aren�t included in Mission146�s calculations. Mission146 did mention that he didn�t look at anything outside of the WOV Adventures thread and the one other forum.

These sessions were spread out over about a dozen or so casinos.

In any case, along the way, anyone wanting to challenge any session results could have undertaken the MDawg challenge

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Keep in mind too, that for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

I actually have not gone over closely the results that Mission146 has presented. I assume they are accurate, absent the missing sessions mentioned above. I did notice some discrepancies, that came down to misinterpretations of results where the results were not based on a simple session report total, but given that I was suspended for the past week, I started losing interest in going over everything line by line so I am just going to say that knowing Mission146�s thoroughness the tallied results are most likely correct, �or so� to use an expression of mine � meaning that they might be off.

Along the way, I have explained more than once what I am doing as far as advantage play.

When it comes to blackjack, I count cards, I shuffle track, and I play at tables where I insist on a hand shuffle. I�ve explained how I�m able to do this during the course of the thread more than once. I also have a memory that is good enough such that on at least a double deck I know what cards have been exposed and what cards remain in the deck, at any time.

Wizard himself admitted that this sort of memory is more of a 1 in 10000 type thing and not unheard of and UnJon among others stated that he knew of others who could do the same.

Here is someone who posted at WOV about this sort of thing, in October 2013, five years before I arrived at this forum, involving even an 8 deck game:

Quote: memoryMF
Hey guys, I really have an insane memory. I turned 21 last month and I went to a casino and played BlackJack. My friend was really excited because he knows I have an insane memory. He knows a couple of stats and he knows what to do for a given hand and he wanted me to learn to count cards. However, I realized I could remember almost every single card dealt at an 8-decks BJ table. Is there any topic explaining how I can decide what's the best move if I know exactly what cards are left in the shoe and considering I'm pretty good at mental calculations?

Thank you for your time! :)
link to original post

As far as Baccarat, I have a way of knowing sometimes what the first card out the deck will be.

I get loss rebates and have posted redacted pictures of these slips.

I am invited to numerous high end tournaments and drawings and have won many of them. I have provided in the past to Wizard privately images verifying some of these wins.

I get tons of gift cards, promo chips, comps.

I have friends and associates who are very high net worth individuals who just go to Vegas to play, mostly slots actually, and they go where I go. If I�m out, they�re out.

For at least the first few years of my play, I posted actual video of me logged into my player card accounts and navigating the pages including the pages where my WIN statements were. These WIN statements corroborated more or less the sum total of what I had claimed via session reports during the course of each given year.

I have posted numerous challenges along the way, including one that involved challenging AxelWolf to find even one casino where I played other than the ones for which I posted verifications of WIN statements (besides the obvious � that at least the first few years of my session reports I named the casinos I was playing at along the way, and then at the end of the year provided the WIN statements for every casino mentioned � so it would be absurd to argue that I �left something out� because that would mean that I knew in advance at the start of the year that I was not going to win at a given casino such that I left that casino�s name out of any session reports or posts).

I also made challenges to have these WIN statements verified directly at the casino, and no one took me up on that.

Other challenges included having anyone match a $50K bankroll with me at the casino and winner takes all, each player to choose his game. I also wagered AxelWolf that I was in fact a high roller betting the amounts I claimed, and he backed down from taking the wager eventually after initially saying that he was raring to go with that (this was before the Wizard witnessed Dark Oz challenge).

DRich QUOTE

AxelWolf and others ended up declining to undertake numerous wagers I proposed, including that he could never get a cage check for a table game session win without actually having a verified pit win reported.

I was also, as you know, observed playing Baccarat by Wizard and won during the session. This was known as the DarkOz Challenge, where I picked up $2000. from DarkOz (plus what I won in the session). During that session there was a Player run of 8 long, and I won every single hand during that run, and pressed into the run, the same way I have described in many of my session reports. In other words, the manner in which I play as described in countless (well, now counted � by Mission146 🤣) session reports mirrored the sort of play Wizard witnessed in the DarkOz challenge.

After Wizard witnessed my play, we went to that casino�s VIP and up to my suite, which was one of the largest suites available at that casino (one of the majors on the Strip), and VIP also confirmed to the Wizard that I had been in that suite already for a couple of weeks.

Since that witnessed session I have reported similar play in all of my sessions. Over the past few years especially my average bets have increased pretty dramatically as have my credit lines.

Actual Wizard witnessed session

It is interesting to note that prior to this Wizard witnessed session, everyone was going on and on about how �proving past results� meant nothing
�That is the only thing that matters. Previous play is meaningless as it relates to this discussion.�
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/45/#post788080

in other words that �all that mattered� was proving that I could win at a witnessed session.

Terapined posted this

�No way Mdawg allows anybody to see the impossible
Because
Its impossible
I read the wizard strategy on baccarat
Play banker
Any other strategy would be flushing down more money down the toilet
No way Mdawg allows us to see him flushing lol�

Which was representative of what many were saying at that point, that there was no way I would ever show my face to anyone and play in front of Wizard, and as well he �brilliantly� opined that no one would play Baccarat other than betting only Bank. Anyway, he was proven wrong on both counts, along with a good many others.

It is interesting to note that this thread is only about past results, while the crowd was stumbling over their feet (before I was witnessed playing) to state that only future play mattered. 😅

I have provided privately to Wizard, copies of casino cage checks marked �pit verified winnings� totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. I have met Wizard socially many times and had as much as $100,000. in chips in my pocket during at least one of these meetups, and wasn�t planning to even see him at that exact time so it was simply because I happened to have come directly from casino play that I had any chips on me at all.

I have run into Wizard at gaming conventions wearing some of the watches of which I have posted pictures.

I was initially thinking of elaborating even further on how and why all of this is done, and why it matters, but then I started to think that unless I�m planning to stop doing any of this, whatever I have posted on the subject is public record already, and any of you are free to look up those posts, so I don�t see much benefit to me trying to nail down and further clarify what I�ve already said.

One thing that needs to be addressed is how and why in October 2021, I posted something about how I was �about even.� I have discussed this with Wizard and he agrees that the truth about this needs to be posted given that Mission146 has taken the time to go through all of these session reports.

I posted that �about even� statement to get my thread unhidden. Wizard and I met that day socially, for about an hour in a casino VIP lounge, as he showed me some magic tricks and discussed �what it would take� to get the thread unhidden. We did not go over any session results. The �about even� post was made as an accommodation to get my thread unhidden, that�s it.

As far as back up for that I really do play at these levels, I have provided over the past years photographic evidence of my play which includes:

-stacks of cash
-stacks of chips
-millions of dollars in paid off markers
Why show markers?

-casino checks issued for wins
-pictures and videos of high end timepieces
-pictures of winning Baccarat shoes
-pictures of large Vegas high roller suites
-pictures of gourmet meals eaten at casino resort restaurants
-pictures of the television screen inside the suites, and paper folios, that prove full RFB comps.
-actual video of WIN statements while logged in live to player card accounts to substantiate alleged wins

Included in today�s photos will be some of the comments made by Wizard along the way as he examined my evidence. I could find a lot more occasions where Wizard has posted corroborating evidence in my favor, but with the change in format of the forum from 10 to 50 posts per page, most of the URL records I had retained have changed and I don�t particularly feel like spending the time tracking them all down. But the posts are all there, public record.

Beyond that, you�re all on your own for searching through my threads for what I may have posted. As mentioned, I�m probably not done playing and winning in Vegas so I don�t want to disclose everything that I do, even though I have stated that I was thinking about retiring the champ because I have some business opportunities that require me to be in a state other than Nevada almost full time. Privately, Wizard and I during the past week have gotten into some more detail over exactly how and why I win.

Bottom line, as far as I know, no one in the history of WOV had provided much evidence of much of anything � other than MDawg.

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 3:57:32 PM permalink

Image posts for MDawg Wins thread

As far as some of the suites we�ve stayed in, these are in the

QUIETEST AND BEST VEGAS ROOMS

These are some pics culled from past posts:

Chips

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 4:09:11 PM permalink

Cash

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 4:10:02 PM permalink

Markers

?1

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 4:10:34 PM permalink

Watches and general bling

Last edited by: MDawg on Feb 23, 2024

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 4:11:15 PM permalink

Baccarat Shoes

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg

Threads: 41
Posts: 8072

Joined: Sep 27, 2018

February 23rd, 2024 at 4:30:26 PM permalink

"MDawg has said he crushes casinos and has posted results.

Results have been tallied and they do show someone has crushed casinos.

Some see this as affirmation and a victory:

just lol what in the tomfoolery is this."

(Posted via general permission I have been given by Wizard for drawing from outside sources for this thread, Kudos! to AIQ.)

I tell you it�s wonderful to be here, man. I don�t give a damn who wins or loses. It�s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

MDawg