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MDawg
MDawg
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November 16th, 2023 at 7:22:02 PM permalink
It's happening, F1 is underway in just an hour.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
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November 17th, 2023 at 9:28:22 AM permalink
So apparently they stopped the F1 race after 9 minutes because someone hit a small manhole and it popped up onto the track? Lol so incompetent.
SOOPOO
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November 17th, 2023 at 10:10:42 AM permalink
I am pretty sure it was just practice they stopped. Itís a jumble, but I think it was free to watch. Except it was delayed so much they cleaned out the stands at 1:30am so those who went basically saw nothing.
MDawg
MDawg
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November 17th, 2023 at 10:18:07 AM permalink
We didn't bother to go to our seats for the Thursday practice, gave the tickets away earlier that day. In any case, watching from the hotel suite, which we have a direct view of the course, pretty good view actually, the practice ended after about ten minutes when the Ferrari car hit a manhole cover that popped up. Even before that happened you could see sparks as the cars drove by which implied some kind of friction, maybe on manhole covers?

Watching the practice, the cars initially drove cautiously but then built up speed. The Ferrari car was going pretty fast when it was damaged.

This manhole cover popping off is apparently a recurring F1 problem.

Disgrace in Las Vegas: Manhole cover as a deadly danger

I went to sleep and was awakened at around midnight I think it was by the roar of cars, and my wife told me that the practice had resumed. I didn't bother to wake back up for it (didn't even wake up for sex when my wife tried to wake me up for that, shows how tired I was, I will turn down something like that about 0% of the time


(actually I just like that clip, it's not necessarily apposite to our marriage 😅)

), but the people to whom we gave our tickets told us that they were allowed entry both before the accident and after when the practice resumed. They also said that it was pretty exciting even after midnight.

Ferrari tried to appeal whatever penalty was given to it, but somehow the F1 rules didn't allow any exception. Vasseur: Vegas manhole issues that wrecked Sainz's Ferrari F1 car "unacceptable"
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 17, 2023
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 17th, 2023 at 10:40:53 AM permalink
During a recent session I got a couple thou in free play promo chips that would not lose, I mean these suckers whether I laid them all down or part lasted for many hands. One time I won thirteen hands in a row with promo chips, this wasn't like that, but not bad at all.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 17th, 2023 at 11:02:09 AM permalink
Those racing cars are so low to the ground they had to rip out the lane reflectors that were part of the city streets. Going 150 mph over a manhole cover might be a bit tornadic and suck it up.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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November 17th, 2023 at 1:26:08 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

During a recent session I got a couple thou in free play promo chips that would not lose, I mean these suckers whether I laid them all down or part lasted for many hands. One time I won thirteen hands in a row with promo chips, this wasn't like that, but not bad at all.
link to original post


Quote: MDawg



Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.


Some security here. Everybody knows you're in LV now. Breaking your cover?? Or is it just pretend?

tuttigym
DRich
DRich
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November 17th, 2023 at 6:48:31 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg



When the 1,000-billion Mark note came out, almost no one bothered to collect the change when spending it. By November 1923, one US dollar equaled one trillion Marks.



If you have one I will buy it from you for $20.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
MDawg
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November 17th, 2023 at 7:26:44 PM permalink
For an old German mark note, or a ticket to F1? 😅

Take a look, for example, at Venetian's parking garage today - 6th floor - not even as full as a typical weekend!



Pretty empty in fact.

I noted the same in other casinos' parking lots too yesterday and today, including Wynn and Caesars, really not that full at all.

And the access via Flamingo heading west to Strip to various casinos - moving slowly but, moving - and given that it's just 1 or 2 lanes, not bad at all, certainly not indicative of a blowout event.

I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 17th, 2023 at 7:28:24 PM permalink
We were out hiking most of the day, now ensconced in the suite will just watch F1 from here, and in process of giving away our seats.

But we will watch the F1 race itself from the seats.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 18th, 2023 at 10:14:14 AM permalink
Last night's F1 seemed to pass without a hitch.

After the first practice was over at 9:30pm some other cars were racing around the track, maybe some kind of manufacturer's promotion?

After the qualifiers at midnight, turns out that Sainz's Ferrari would have been in second place, but for a 10-grid place penalty over that manhole cover accident, landing him in 12th place now. The penalty had to do with replacing his damaged power unit component - for excessive usage of a power unit element.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 20th, 2023 at 2:01:16 AM permalink
We watched most of the race from our seats then made it back to our suite just before the finish caught that directly from the room.

Enjoyable. Pretty exciting over all. The mishaps here and there added to the excitement.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 20, 2023
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 20th, 2023 at 2:02:00 AM permalink
Day 44 play

Baccarat

Two very long sessions pretty heavy action at times.

+42000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
EvenBob
EvenBob
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November 20th, 2023 at 10:49:35 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

We watched most of the race from out seats then made it back ti our suite just before the finish caught that directly from the room.

Enjoyable. Pretty exciting over all. The mishaps here and there added to the excitement.
link to original post



Without mishaps and crashes nobody would watch car races. Boring.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MDawg
MDawg
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November 20th, 2023 at 4:55:58 PM permalink
During one of my recent sessions when I was winning pretty big an Asian lady wandered into the room where I was playing (private tables aren't necessarily in an area closed to the public) and commented that I was winning all my big bets which meant that I was "very lucky today."

"When you not lucky you lose all your big bets and you have to go home and wash your feet."
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
DRich
DRich
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November 20th, 2023 at 6:20:48 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg



"When you not lucky you lose all your big bets and you have to go home and wash your feet."



No wonder I kept losing, I rarely washed my feet after gambling.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MDawg
MDawg
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November 21st, 2023 at 8:33:18 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Take a look, for example, at Venetian's parking garage today - 6th floor - not even as full as a typical weekend!



Pretty empty in fact.

I noted the same in other casinos' parking lots too yesterday and today, including Wynn and Caesars, really not that full at all.


This is the same 6th floor of Venetian's parking garage yesterday.


Lot more full! I observed basically a lot less people in the various Strip casinos over F1 weekend, than yesterday. Interesting. Arrivals galore, after F1.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 22nd, 2023 at 12:33:33 PM permalink
Day 45 play

Baccarat

Two sessions, in both I was initially ahead and then ending up losing big.

-32000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 22nd, 2023 at 12:34:18 PM permalink
I suppose I should have washed my feet between at least the first and second session of Day 45, because that day, I lost most of my big bets. 🤯
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 24th, 2023 at 6:20:11 PM permalink
Day 46 play

DD Blackjack

Shouldíve pressed harder.

+11000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 25th, 2023 at 1:40:26 PM permalink
Day 47 play

DD Blackjack

Was down a fair sum. Got back to even, stopped.

+200

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 25th, 2023 at 10:04:27 PM permalink
Hot Springs, via Pahrump.



I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 26th, 2023 at 3:56:46 PM permalink
Day 48 play

DD blackjack

Some back and forth.

+2300

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2023 at 4:20:34 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Day 48 play

DD blackjack

Some back and forth.

+2300

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post



48 days in a row? What is your total +$$$$$$. I donít have the patience to go through that many posts!

I donít like being in the Smokey environment that many days. I assume you always make your table non smoking?
MDawg
MDawg
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November 26th, 2023 at 5:44:21 PM permalink
Hi SooPoo.

Itís not 48 days in a row per se itís 48 different days of play. It actually represents more than 48 days in Vegas.

Will be around a while longer but going to be busy this week with some other work so this may be it as far as play for this ďround.Ē

And yes I make my tables non smoking always but as well I have been lucky there hasnít been much smoking anywhere near me lately.

Actually I havenít experienced much nearby smoke in some time or else Iíd have played a lot less.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 27, 2023
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 26th, 2023 at 8:56:53 PM permalink
The grandstands, at least along the Strip, will all go I assume.

The ones on the west side of Koval, the paddock, will remain.

What about all those lights? They won't leave those up for another year will they? Their supporting posts are blocking the sidewalks.


F1 teardown to take 6 to 8 weeks.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 27th, 2023 at 10:28:02 AM permalink
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 27th, 2023 at 10:30:44 AM permalink
Venetian doesn't use this area for any kind of check in anymore, but it's one way to get from the front lobby to the main tower.

I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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ChallengedMilly
November 27th, 2023 at 10:34:22 AM permalink
Cosmo, Venetian and Caesars are using machines like these to serve up hot drinks in VIP. At Caesars there is no attendant, just access for Seven Stars players who are checked into the hotel.

Venetian too allows access only to checked in VIP guests.



At Wynn, your Chairman's card gets you access or your RFB Tower Suites room key. Wynn/Encore is the only VIP that has decent food and butler service whenever VIP is open.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 28th, 2023 at 4:41:58 PM permalink
Much earlier this year I posted about how the ups and downs were starting to get to me, and that I was thinking of easing back on the play or even stopping. Then I had a big win trip and of course, that idea went out the window.

Now, closing in on exactly five years of play since the big long hiatus I took, looking back I definitely didn't stick to my initial intention which was to play just enough for comps. I started with all $50K lines, and then around two years ago or so I increased them to the levels where I could get private tables, and raised them even more after that.

I still don't like the ups and downs. I actually haven't even played in several days, which I take breaks like that every now and then in Vegas, but I don't plan to play again this week. Been seeing different parts of Vegas and its environs with the wife lately.

I can't imagine playing small again, don't think I could do it. So, for me the choice would be to either just stop playing entirely, or keep playing big. I'd be fine with either scenario.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2023 at 5:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Much earlier this year I posted about how the ups and downs were starting to get to me, and that I was thinking of easing back on the play or even stopping. Then I had a big win trip and of course, that idea went out the window.

Now, closing in on exactly five years of play since the big long hiatus I took, looking back I definitely didn't stick to my initial intention which was to play just enough for comps. I started with all $50K lines, and then around two years ago or so I increased them to the levels where I could get private tables, and raised them even more after that.

I still don't like the ups and downs. I actually haven't even played in several days, which I take breaks like that every now and then in Vegas, but I don't plan to play again this week. Been seeing different parts of Vegas and its environs with the wife lately.

I can't imagine playing small again, don't think I could do it. So, for me the choice would be to either just stop playing entirely, or keep playing big. I'd be fine with either scenario.
link to original post



It seems to me from your trip reports, stock chatter, watches, etcÖ. that you donít need the money from gambling forÖ. anything, actuallyÖ.
So gamble only if and when it feels right.
Others here make their living solely by different kinds of casino plays. Iíd give them different advice.
Iím the opposite of you. I can gamble VERY SMALL and still enjoy it. I often joke with my buddy after winning $100 or losing $200 in a 3 hour session that I made or lost more than that in 10 seconds in the stock market that day.

Have you thought about buying a condo in Vegas? If you like Vegas that much why not?
MDawg
MDawg
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November 28th, 2023 at 5:43:01 PM permalink
It depends on the game. Blackjack is a lot of work (for me). The intensity I am putting into not just the count but keeping track of every card out and remaining and what it means can be exhausting.

Baccarat I am tracking something else, but more looking for those advantage hands, so the over all intensity is less because there are many hands where I probably don't know any more about the outcome than anyone else.

Anyway for some time now, there are days when I go to play and think about how great this is, and other days when I go in thinking how much I hate it. I don't know if that makes sense, but it comes down to that this isn't all I can do. I suppose if this were my living then I'd never consider easing up or stopping. Certainly if I didn't win consistently I would have stopped years ago.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:40:53 PM permalink
I've had this discussion with the Wizard recently.

Let's say someone is playing blackjack with a 0.19 house edge.

100 - 5000 table min/max. Varying bets - no flat betting, but let's not assume any card counting so that higher bets might come anytime. No specific strategy, no regular martingale, just, as they said about Dan Mahowny, "pretty big bets on impulse. No consistent pattern." Player will bet $5000. without any compunction.

Bankroll is $50,000. goal is to win $250,000. and player will not stop a session until he either wins $250,000. or loses $50,000.

Over time, will this person simply lose the house edge, or more?

We don't have to consider necessarily a very long term, let's just say even, a few dozen sessions.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:17:52 PM permalink
That's kind of like me with a $10-$500 table trying to turn $5,000 into $25,000. I'd just be getting started with a $10K bankroll, I'd be still struggling with a $5K bankroll. I'm also bucking up against $15 table minimums locally, so my session buy-ins will be $500. I'd like 20 buy-ins to start with after my poor luck on the home games this year. I have no idea how this translates on real tables, but I can hope for the best coming early. I'd change the challenge to $10K winning to $30K with $500 buy-ins; then upping that to $1K buy-ins and getting from $30K to $100K on $25-$1K tables. There'd be dozens of sessions involved here, I'm not trying to leapfrog to $100K in one night here. But most sessions would be between 150 to 400+ hands, and I may just settle for modest wins so I can go home after 4 hours.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 28, 2023
MDawg
MDawg
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:50:56 PM permalink
Right, but what if you had an all or nothing attitude? Reach your extravagant goal or go bust, and not stop until either one happened. Over a few dozen sessions how much would you lose? What would the most likely outcome be at the end of those few dozen sessions?
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 28th, 2023 at 9:04:58 PM permalink
It's a long trek to $100K and I'm not taking bad risks. But if the Blazing 7's jackpot is over $150K and I'm betting over $500/hand I may put $5 bets on it that day.
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
MDawg
November 29th, 2023 at 5:59:14 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I've had this discussion with the Wizard recently.

Let's say someone is playing blackjack with a 0.19 house edge.

100 - 5000 table min/max. Varying bets - no flat betting, but let's not assume any card counting so that higher bets might come anytime. No specific strategy, no regular martingale, just, as they said about Dan Mahowny, "pretty big bets on impulse. No consistent pattern." Player will bet $5000. without any compunction.

Bankroll is $50,000. goal is to win $250,000. and player will not stop a session until he either wins $250,000. or loses $50,000.

Over time, will this person simply lose the house edge, or more?

We don't have to consider necessarily a very long term, let's just say even, a few dozen sessions.
link to original post



The playerís results will Ďtendí towards the house edge multiplied by the total amount of money put in action. And will of course have a Ďvarianceí associated with the game and its specific rules.

The way you worded the questionÖ. The great majority of time the player will lose his entire $50k. Without knowing how he varies his bets itís just going to be a guess. My guess is 10% of the time he quintuples his money, 90% he loses it all.
MDawg
MDawg
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November 29th, 2023 at 10:03:50 AM permalink
The post I made does not concern MY play. It is a simulation based on the player who plays with no edge.

My point in making the post is that over the term of an average let's even say year or two, for the average player, playing that way he will be blown out far more times than will achieve his goal. Actually, many players play exactly like that as they get in the hole and try to win it all back in one session, unwilling to stop even with a partial recovery of their losses.

So this is an example of where the long term results and the shorter results will diverge.

Yes, over millions of sessions the house edge will be what the player should lose, but trying to win $250K every time with a max bet of $5000. and not necessarily betting that every hand, more often than not the player will lose everything.

You could extrapolate this even further, and make the goal whatever the player has lost so far. So after ten blowouts the goal could become $500K or nothing, for each session, and so on. And I see this sort of thing all the time, big players who have lost vast sums over the years or during that trip and as soon as they get on a roll think they'll get back to even in one session, and end up dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars ahead because they think they're going to get to a half million or million that session.

You could try this simulation with no house edge and just a coin toss and still over the shorter term the player would probably lose a lot more than expected via a 50-50 result, especially if the goal for each session increased but the bankroll remained constant or even dropped, and the max bet remained the same.

The risk of ruin is pretty high if the goal is unrealistic given the bankroll and max bet, especially if the player is unwilling to stop unless the goal is achieved or the bankroll is lost.
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Mental
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November 29th, 2023 at 10:47:44 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

The post I made does not concern MY play. It is a simulation based on the player who plays with no edge.

My point in making the post is that over the term of an average let's even say year or two, for the average player, playing that way he will be blown out far more times than will achieve his goal. Actually, many players play exactly like that as they get in the hole and try to win it all back in one session, unwilling to stop even with a partial recovery of their losses.

So this is an example of where the long term results and the shorter results will diverge.

Yes, over millions of sessions the house edge will be what the player should lose, but trying to win $250K every time with a max bet of $5000. and not necessarily betting that every hand, more often than not the player will lose everything.

You could extrapolate this even further, and make the goal whatever the player has lost so far. So after ten blowouts the goal could become $500K or nothing, for each session, and so on. And I see this sort of thing all the time, big players who have lost vast sums over the years or during that trip and as soon as they get on a roll think they'll get back to even in one session, and end up dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars ahead because they think they're going to get to a half million or million that session.

You could try this simulation with no house edge and just a coin toss and still over the shorter term the player would probably lose a lot more than expected via a 50-50 result, especially if the goal for each session increased but the bankroll remained constant or even dropped, and the max bet remained the same.

The risk of ruin is pretty high if the goal is unrealistic given the bankroll and max bet, especially if the player is unwilling to stop unless the goal is achieved or the bankroll is lost.
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If you are coin flipping with flat bets and even payouts, then your chance of busting is exactly 20%. You don't need to do sims to see this. That is the only percentage that gets you to zero house edge.

The only thing that changes with spreading the bets and playing a BJ game where you can win or lose up to 8 units per hand is that you will go way over the $250K target sometimes, and other times you will have to go into your pocket sometimes to double up or split hands. On those occasions, you will usually lose more than $50K.

I just did a sim of 100,000 sessions and the win percentage drops to 16.7% because the overages can be large especially if a big bet is out and has to be doubled. The house edge averages about 0.3% for the BJ rules that I simulated. Nothing about your setup changes the HE.

Repeat after me: Betting systems don't change the house edge over the long term or the short term.

The long term results and the shorter results DO NOT diverge. The house edge is what it is.

You seem really confused about the essential math of the situation. This is especially clear in your coin-flip example. If a player is playing a zero-EV coin flip game trying to quintuple up, then the player not tend to lose more on average if they tilt and start throwing out big bets.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
MDawg
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November 29th, 2023 at 11:13:06 AM permalink
If the bankroll and max bet remain constant. The player plays the same way, sometimes betting max bet, not always. And the goal for each session increases, with a determined end result of either achieving that goal or losing it all, then most of what you just wrote above is wrong as far as real world results.

You're simulating 100,000 sessions. In five years I haven't had anywhere near 100,000 sessions and I have probably played more than anyone you've ever even heard of in Vegas.

No one is saying that the house edge changes.

Rather, that the real world results over the course of a year or two will almost assuredly be that the player will keep getting blown out.

The bankroll remains $50,000. The max bet 5000. The player does not max bet every hand. The initial goal is $250,000, all or nothing, but after each blowout the goal increases by $50,000. After ten blowouts now the goal is $750,000. with the same $50K bankroll and same max bet. You might think this sort of thing is just a simulation but it is not. I see this sort of thing all the time in high limit, with players who have dumped hundreds of thousands telling me they need to get back to even and won't stop until they are even. Then I see the same player a year later, and now he's saying he needs to win back two million or so, and hasn't even increased his bankroll by much. Keeps trying to win it all back in one session or trip. Keeps losing more and more, blowout after blowout.

Quote: SOOPOO

The way you worded the questionÖ. The great majority of time the player will lose his entire $50k. Without knowing how he varies his bets itís just going to be a guess. My guess is 10% of the time he quintuples his money, 90% he loses it all.
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Yes I'd agree, at least 90% of the time blowout, more if you assume a rising goal where each prior blowout is added to the all or nothing goal.
Last edited by: MDawg on Nov 29, 2023
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Mental
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November 29th, 2023 at 11:38:52 AM permalink
I don't find this discussion illuminating. I don't know why you PMed me to look at it. I am putting the block back on this thread.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
MDawg
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November 29th, 2023 at 11:43:09 AM permalink
Because you were clearly interested in the thread, had taken the time to look back over many posts, and were asking a lot of questions a couple of weeks ago.
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SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 11:59:21 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

If the bankroll and max bet remain constant. The player plays the same way, sometimes betting max bet, not always. And the goal for each session increases, with a determined end result of either achieving that goal or losing it all, then most of what you just wrote above is wrong as far as real world results.

You're simulating 100,000 sessions. In five years I haven't had anywhere near 100,000 sessions and I have probably played more than anyone you've ever even heard of in Vegas.

No one is saying that the house edge changes.

Rather, that the real world results over the course of a year or two will almost assuredly be that the player will keep getting blown out.

The bankroll remains $50,000. The max bet 5000. The player does not max bet every hand. The initial goal is $250,000, all or nothing, but after each blowout the goal increases by $50,000. After ten blowouts now the goal is $750,000. with the same $50K bankroll and same max bet. You might think this sort of thing is just a simulation but it is not. I see this sort of thing all the time in high limit, with players who have dumped hundreds of thousands telling me they need to get back to even and won't stop until they are even. Then I see the same player a year later, and now he's saying he needs to win back two million or so, and hasn't even increased his bankroll by much. Keeps trying to win it all back in one session or trip. Keeps losing more and more, blowout after blowout.

Quote: SOOPOO

The way you worded the questionÖ. The great majority of time the player will lose his entire $50k. Without knowing how he varies his bets itís just going to be a guess. My guess is 10% of the time he quintuples his money, 90% he loses it all.
link to original post


Yes I'd agree, at least 90% of the time blowout, more if you assume a rising goal where each prior blowout is added to the all or nothing goal.
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Real world experience says they lose it all even moreÖ. partly due to tipping. A win on a big bet often results in a tip. Iíve never seen the casino tip the player after a big loss.

Tipping losses are rarely (never?) figured into these calculations.
Dieter
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Dieter
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:07:16 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Real world experience says they lose it all even moreÖ. partly due to tipping. A win on a big bet often results in a tip. Iíve never seen the casino tip the player after a big loss.

Tipping losses are rarely (never?) figured into these calculations.
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Isn't a comp the casino tipping the player?
May the cards fall in your favor.
MDawg
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:11:01 PM permalink
In a way, yes.  😅
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MDawg
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:13:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Real world experience says they lose it all even moreÖ. partly due to tipping. A win on a big bet often results in a tip. Iíve never seen the casino tip the player after a big loss.

Tipping losses are rarely (never?) figured into these calculations.
link to original post


"Real world experience says they lose it all even more" this is definitely true. And if a player gets blown out enough times he doesn't stick around long enough to experience the eventual "evening out" of loss of only the house edge. But the main problem is this "all or nothing" attitude that so many players have. I need to win it all (not 25%, not 50%, not even 90% but ALL) back NOW or I'll lose it all trying.

And then as they get blown out they add the amount of the blow out to the ever increasing "want it all back NOW" goal.
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SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:19:25 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: SOOPOO


Real world experience says they lose it all even moreÖ. partly due to tipping. A win on a big bet often results in a tip. Iíve never seen the casino tip the player after a big loss.

Tipping losses are rarely (never?) figured into these calculations.
link to original post



Isn't a comp the casino tipping the player?
link to original post



Yes. But not relevant to the discussion. The guy coming with $50k to turn it into $250k is not using comps to do so. But Iíll bet they give him a free dinner once his $50k is in the dealers tray.
ChumpChange
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:21:30 PM permalink
He should get 10% or maybe even 20% back as a loss rebate. So he'd get back $5K or $10K. What do you do with that? Pay back a marker a bit? Can you use comps to partial pay a marker?
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:29:27 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

He should get 10% or maybe even 20% back as a loss rebate. So he'd get back $5K or $10K. What do you do with that? Pay back a marker a bit? Can you use comps to partial pay a marker?
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Humor me. When was the last time YOU got any casino losses back as a loss rebate? What makes you think Mr. Hypothetical has a loss rebate deal?

Anyway, if the loss rebate is CASH, then he can use it.. likeÖ. CASH. If itís in free play, then he canít. If itís promo chips, then he canít. If itís in Walmart gift cards, then he canít.

If by comps you mean like free meals and hotel rooms, do YOU think he can pay off a marker with those?
ChumpChange
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:34:37 PM permalink
I was kind of expecting Mr. MDawg to come back and say that each marker must be paid back in full and partial payments are not allowed. But yeah, throw in these other alternative comp scenarios that make no sense to any kind of payback of markers.

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