The Adventures of MDawg II
Quote: billryanCasinos don't make their money off of losing bets, the real money is their hidden tax on winnings. If you bet a single number in roulette, a win should pay 38 units, but the casino "taxes" you 3 units and pays you 35. Those 3 units are gone forever, there is nothing you can do to get them back.
When you lose, the casino wins. When you win, the casino gets a small tax. The more you win, the more small taxes for the casino.
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How many zeros on that roulette wheel?
The only way to lose that much that fast is if tourists are shooting the dice. The house edge is about five times higher when they roll.Quote: ChumpChange
As for House Edge, if I'm down 50 bets at the dice table in 3 hours, why was that? Is it because I made horrible prop bets or is it because my low HA bets didn't win?
That doesn't matter. If you are a regular player, setting stopping points does not affect the house edge or your long-term results. Many times you won't ever reach your stopping point, and when you do reach it you are very often cutting off what would have been a larger win. Setting stopping points is quite similar to the martingale "strategy", which also has no effect on the house edgeQuote: darkozThe other problem with quit while you are ahead is how much.
I take $5 spin at slot and win $6. I'm ahead! Quit?
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The only time a stopping point will work is if, on your very first casino visit, you win money and then never play again. Almost no one fits that description
If I'm winning money, then I'm a good gambler and I've beaten the odds.
If I'm losing money, then it's reclassified as an entertainment expense.
Quote: lilredrooster____________nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Quote: lilredroosterthese are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
A walk back perhaps?
tuttigym
Quote: lilredrooster____________
ever wonder why gamblers who really seem to want be winners don't learn to count cards at blackjack or handicap sports or do machine AP stuff like DarkOz________________???
these are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
answer_______________because those things are hard___________to most or many people anyway
and most gamblers are looking for easy money__________and many, due to selective memory believe they have found it
.
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Perhaps one could provide distinctions or differences between players, gamblers, and/or patrons. The vast majority of people frequenting casinos are patrons. They are basically unsophisticated and unknowledgeable in the gaming arts. Somehow, there are posters here that are casting a broad net to include most everyone as fanatical gamblers hoping to break the bank only to lose their entire net worth at the tables or slots. Although there are those who are addicted, an unfortunate minority, the rest can and do deal with the highs and lows within the confines of the casino experience. So I am not sure who you are trying impress or educate.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: lilredrooster____________nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Quote: lilredroosterthese are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
A walk back perhaps?
tuttigym
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you've misquoted me twice now by cutting my words short_____________this makes it appear intentional
this is what I wrote______________
"nobody, I repeat nobody wins in the long run because they stopped their loss on Wednesday and came back to play on Thursday or because they quit while they're ahead on Friday and came back to play on Saturday"
it looks very much like you made a deliberate effort to distort the meaning of my words
and that is not at all appreciated
you don't like reading my point of view at all___________________ that is of great sadness
one post up you wrote about me______________"So, I am not sure who you are trying to impress"_____________etc,
if I was trying to impress people I wouldn't be posting on WOV_____________I'd be throwing down some $10K bets on the hardaways in Vegas
.
Quote: darkozTuttigym
You are describing a single wager win.
Yes I was, and my point is that a return because of a win provides some kind of an excess profit over the initial bet. Imagine the uproar if all wagers returned just even money or less. So in that respect, the return to the player, because of the rules, gives an excess profit.
Quote: darkozI am explaining to you that over time the short change wagers made over and over again will whittle the gambler down.
That's the long term. And it usually takes about four hours for it to work in the real world.
What you are describing, correctly so for the most part, is the player who is undisciplined and/or married to a strategy, system, or method that is unlikely to succeed but can. There is no flexibility or change available to them in their mindset.
tuttigym
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: tuttigymQuote: lilredrooster____________nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Quote: lilredroosterthese are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
A walk back perhaps?
tuttigym
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you've misquoted me twice now by cutting my words short_____________this makes it appear intentional
this is what I wrote______________
"nobody, I repeat nobody wins in the long run because they stopped their loss on Wednesday and came back to play on Thursday or because they quit while they're ahead on Friday and came back to play on Saturday"
it looks very much like you made a deliberate effort to distort the meaning of my words
and that is not at all appreciated
you don't like reading my point of view at all___________________ that is of great sadness
one post up you wrote about me______________"So, I am not sure who you are trying to impress"_____________etc,
if I was trying to impress people I wouldn't be posting on WOV_____________I'd be throwing down some $10K bets on the hardaways in Vegas
.
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You are correct. I did edit the quote because it seemed to conflict with another statement. That is why I asked the following question if the statement was a "walk back." So I am guessing that you do believe players can win in the "long run." Correct?
Points of view can be enlightening or not. If I read something that is unclear or I do not understand, I ask questions or for clarifications.
I seem to remember you responding to me using some form of ignorant language and spelling. What did that represent?
tuttigym
Quote: lilredroosterif I was trying to impress people I wouldn't be posting on WOV_____________I'd be throwing down some $10K bets on the hardaways in Vegas
.
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10k betting on any bet is way out of my league but I am curious what casino in Vegas allows 10k bets on hardways?
I thought the limit was 5k at Bellagio.
Quote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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Wow you're tough.
Quote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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Here’s a fun game. You have $10k and are in a casino. You owe the mafia $100k and you have an hour to win that money…or else. What’s your game plan to maximize your chance of not finding out what “or else” means?
Quote: unJonQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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Here’s a fun game. You have $10k and are in a casino. You owe the mafia $100k and you have an hour to win that money…or else. What’s your game plan to maximize your chance of not finding out what “or else” means?
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Isn't that a Benny Binions story?
He would take any bet and someone came in and he accepted a large single cash bet. The guy wins.
A few years later he returns and wants the same single large cash bet. Binion accepts again and this time the guy loses. He requests a room from Binion who obliges.
The guy commits suicide in the room. It turned out he was a money runner for the mob and used their cash to secretly pocket the winning amount (when he won) and obviously needed to kill himself when he lost.
At least that's what I remember hearing.
Quote: unJonHere’s a fun game. You have $10k and are in a casino. You owe the mafia $100k and you have an hour to win that money…or else. What’s your game plan to maximize your chance of not finding out what “or else” means?
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Sounds like a horror situation.
I remember a guy at Caesars who came to the craps table with about $1000.
He bet $100 on hard 6. $90 on any six.
Only bets.
Made these five times on five different shooters.
Any one hard 6 and he'd be in the money.
Soft sixes would keep him profitable.
But... with five shooters... no one rolled any six.
Quote: unJon
Here’s a fun game. You have $10k and are in a casino. You owe the mafia $100k and you have an hour to win that money…or else. What’s your game plan to maximize your chance of not finding out what “or else” means?
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: lilredrooster____________nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Quote: lilredroosterthese are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
A walk back perhaps?
tuttigym
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Misquoting. Please try to retain enough of the original text so that the excerpt doesn't substantially change in meaning. I think a day is fair.
Baccarat - play 25% each hand initially, and when a streak is forming press into it.
Bribe the dealer at a game that pays better than even odds. e.g. Roulette and when you win, dealer overpays you, thus overcoming the edge. Build the $100K quickly, and then some to pay the bribe. Would work best at a private table.
Quote: TwelveOr21I see two feasible plays.
Baccarat - play 25% each hand initially, and when a streak is forming press into it.
Bribe the dealer at a game that pays better than even odds. e.g. Roulette and when you win, dealer overpays you, thus overcoming the edge. Build the $100K quickly, and then some to pay the bribe. Would work best at a private table.
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The second way may take some time from your schedule. Like maybe 5-7 at the local lockup.
Quote: unJonQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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Here’s a fun game. You have $10k and are in a casino. You owe the mafia $100k and you have an hour to win that money…or else. What’s your game plan to maximize your chance of not finding out what “or else” means?
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My guesses would be to play one of these (see below):
Craps- hardways bet, on 6 (or 8): "single $10,000 bet on hardways 6 @ 9/1
Roulette/Sports/Race Mix - Stop when you reach $100,000 or bust (slightly more is ok) by alternating between a bet on a single $8350 street***, if that loses bet the rest on a sport(s)/race(s) that would finish in less than an hour^^^, and if you get back to between $8350 and $10k then go back to the street bet.
***: Pays 11/1
^^^: When there is still "plenty of time left", bet so that you replenish it to $8.5k to $10k, and when there is "almost no time left", bet the last of your money on a sport or race that would get you a "$100k collect".
Roulette - Reach $100,000 (slightly more is ok) or bust by using progression betting on a single number".
Other possible play(s): Any game with a high variance and preferably combined with a $100k+ maximum payout limit ("house edge" is important for most things, but in this case the "chance of reaching a goal within a fairly short time" is a lot more important).
Note : I haven't done any calculations, but it would be interesting to know what play/game would give you the highest probability of not having to find out what 'or else' means .
you can throw down $1,000 on your favorite 35 numbers on a 2 zero roulette wheel and you will win $1,000 on more than 90% of the spins
__________________________(~:\
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Quote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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I love it! Thanks, Mr. Ace2. BTW, I know you know that the 7 does appear, on average, about 18% of the time, and I personally use the bet as a hedge, cover your eyes and ears, at come out against the my $15 DP. But that is me.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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I love it! Thanks, Mr. Ace2. BTW, I know you know that the 7 does appear, on average, about 18% of the time, and I personally use the bet as a hedge, cover your eyes and ears, at come out against the my $15 DP. But that is me.
tuttigym
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Please tell me you at least hop the 7s for a $1 rather than put money on Any 7.
Quote: MDawgThe offers at the various casinos in May 2022, include high end free entry poker, blackjack and baccarat tournaments - gift card giveaways, solid free play (promo slips and chips), and more! Since was planning another foray into the casinos anyway, will have to WALK ON DOWN THE ROAD and into the cleansing fire again!
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What this sort of thing sometimes involves is staying at one property in earnest, in the usual big suite, and then to satisfy the requirements of a promotion or tournament entry, book simultaneously a basic room at another resort or two.
It all depends on your relationship with your host and the property's strictness with rule adherence. At some, the host is able to waive about anything and able to put you into a tournament or promotion without the need to book a stay, and at others, you have to do something just to keep up appearances.
How do you get 18%?Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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I love it! Thanks, Mr. Ace2. BTW, I know you know that the 7 does appear, on average, about 18% of the time, and I personally use the bet as a hedge, cover your eyes and ears, at come out against the my $15 DP. But that is me.
tuttigym
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Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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I love it! Thanks, Mr. Ace2. BTW, I know you know that the 7 does appear, on average, about 18% of the time, and I personally use the bet as a hedge, cover your eyes and ears, at come out against the my $15 DP. But that is me.
tuttigym
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Please tell me you at least hop the 7s for a $1 rather than put money on Any 7.
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I have done that too. But a $5 Any 7 allows for a win over a $15 DP bet. Sometimes a $3 hop is a bit clumsy on a fast table, plus there is a net loss when it hits.
tuttigym
Actually it is about 18% when tourists are rolling.Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2How do you get 18%?
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Sorry, 16.67%. Sloppy me.
tuttigym
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Quote: Ace2Actually it is about 18% when tourists are rolling.Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2How do you get 18%?
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Sorry, 16.67%. Sloppy me.
tuttigym
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I try to blend in with real players, but my wardrobe always gives me away. You know, bling, shades, and Bermuda shorts.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Actually it is about 18% when tourists are rolling.Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2How do you get 18%?
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Sorry, 16.67%. Sloppy me.
tuttigym
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Closer to 23 when the tosser is a blonde female under 115 pounds.
And most of your posts are to be taken with a grain of salt. Entertaining sometimes but not necessarily trueQuote: MDawgThese kinds of answers are not always helpful because not everyone knows that they are flippant. I think that BillRyan offers such answers somewhat sparingly but lately Ace2 seems to throw them out there every third post.
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Quote: Ace2
And most of your posts are to be taken with a grain of salt. Entertaining sometimes but not necessarily true
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I personally enjoy your sense of humor. Keeping things light, for me, is always appropriate.
BTW didn't you compare someone's thought processes with the elevation of Death Valley, CA?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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If you want to extrapolate, isn’t putting $10k on virtually any casino bet ‘moronic’? I mean, you are ‘paying’ over $100 on even a ‘good’ bet like pass line, or ‘player’ in baccarat, etc….
Paying $100+ on a dice roll or a few dealt cards? Is every recreational gambler a moron to you?
Of course not.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: Ace2By putting $10k on a hardway bet you're not impressing anyone. Putting $10k on a hardway shows you are a total moron. There are only a few bets, like "any seven" for instance, that are worse than hardways. Why not just light your money on fire instead
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If you want to extrapolate, isn’t putting $10k on virtually any casino bet ‘moronic’? I mean, you are ‘paying’ over $100 on even a ‘good’ bet like pass line, or ‘player’ in baccarat, etc….
Paying $100+ on a dice roll or a few dealt cards? Is every recreational gambler a moron to you?
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But regularly playing high-edge bets like hardways will make you a BIG loser, pretty much guaranteed. And quickly.
Games with an edge of 1/2 percent or less (blackjack with basic strategy, craps with 3/4/5 odds) can be beaten, even over the long term, just by variance. The meager half point being a reasonable cost of entertainment, which might even be recovered via comps.
I stated categorically that a fill at that price would equal a major CHA'CHING! I got the fill, I booked ten K, and I laid out the blueprint for anyone to see and follow.
But did anyone do anything more than just look at the suggestion and stare off into space with inaction?
I have also posted specific long term buy suggestions such as going all in on TSLA a couple years ago, and AMZN when it was below 2000, stating categorically that AMZN would "really start cooking" once it got over 2000, and to buy buy buy more shares. Did anyone follow? Actually I don't really care if anyone did follow because I have always followed, my own advice.
Quote: MDawgWhat makes a person a multi multi millionaire today? Mainly, a can do (versus a cannot do) attitude.
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Similarly, MDawg books tens of K regularly in the casinos, but your average player thinks it's not possible. Sorry, but it is. Quite possible. I know because I'm doing it!
😄
Quote: MDawgWhat's going on with Johnny Depp? His face has not only aged it has decayed.
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I don't know what you mean by "decayed" but he IS almost 60 years old.... Also a former drug addict and alcoholic, which isn't exactly good for the skin.
Quote: MDawgThey stopped carding me at bars and such about five years ago, so I have a pretty good sense of what it is to have not aged. Depp's face has not only aged, it has decayed.
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My ex, when she was 35, got asked for ‘proof’ at a Canadian casino a ways back. You had to be 19 to get in then. She looked at the security guy and just said ‘thank you very much!!’ and continued on through. My present wife always is taken for 10-15 years younger than she is.
I get proofed for the senior discount…..
Palms is ready for business!
