The Adventures of MDawg II
April 21st, 2022 at 10:08:50 AM
permalink
You quit when you want to quit. Short term results mean nothing unless you are not ever going to play again.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
April 21st, 2022 at 10:18:22 AM
permalink
Quote: DRichYou quit when you want to quit. Short term results mean nothing unless you are not ever going to play again.
link to original post
Actually short term results mean everything when it's time to fill out your taxes.
The IRS doesn't care about your advantage or the house edge... the IRS only cares if you have a profit or not.
April 21st, 2022 at 10:31:24 AM
permalink
A year of gambling is thousands of bets for many of us. This could be considered medium term and most years you'll be within a couple percent of expected lossQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichYou quit when you want to quit. Short term results mean nothing unless you are not ever going to play again.
link to original post
Actually short term results mean everything when it's time to fill out your taxes.
The IRS doesn't care about your advantage or the house edge... the IRS only cares if you have a profit or not.
link to original post
There has been talk about people that don't know how to quit when they're ahead. I truly believe that the biggest losers are the people that legitimately believe they can beat the casino
It’s all about making that GTA
April 21st, 2022 at 10:36:34 AM
permalink
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: MDawgYou don't need ESP. Win a hand, press. Win another hand, press more. The more you win in a row the more you get. In a streaky game like Baccarat if you can't win a grip off a long run you'll never get anywhere. And as long as you win two in a row you will at least break even. You don't press all the time, but there are ways to know when to bet more. I have total control over the cards at my private tables.
link to original post
First off, I find this thread interesting, entertaining etc, and I believe that you are posting accurate info for the day /session reports.
But I was interested in how do you know when to "press"? (I would understand if you don't want to answer this question, especially if you have already answered it or similar questions before).
Also, my other (more important) question is, what hypothetical^^^ odds would be the cut off point for you to start or stop playing baccarat, mainly because you wouldn't be able to win enough in the "streaks"?
^^^: For example you may be able to work out from your play (past results) that $1.85 for banker and $1.90 for player would the minimum odds you would need to still make a profit (or at least "break-even").
----
Lastly, I haven't read all your session reports, so I don't even know if you are winning at the tables, but I hope you are (if not before than at least after you add any casino incentives/bonuses).
link to original post
I played for a number of years, stopped while ahead and then took a decade or so hiatus. Back then I had a lot of ups and downs but more than a few monumental winning trips carried me ahead.
I returned to play about three and a half years ago and have not had a losing trip since, although definitely losing sessions. I have been suspended at times from WOV and during such times I have posted my sessions at the forum TruePassage, so if you want to look there all session reports are there, but most of them are here at WOV.
The "hypothetical" (as you put it) stop point for a game like Baccarat might be when I am losing more than a statistically expected number of hands. There is more to it than that, but that generally does correspond to a shoe that has gone random and is unpredictable. I also have had Baccarat shoes where I have lost a ridiculously small number of hands. Obviously during a shoe like that I am not going to stop and will keep betting more and more.
I also play double deck Blackjack. I prefer the DD for reasons that go beyond mere counting. I have a phenomenal memory.
Some periods I play more Baccarat, others more Blackjack. Those are the only two table games I have played in recent years.
Thanks! for your interest.
Last edited by: MDawg on Apr 21, 2022
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 21st, 2022 at 10:52:11 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichYou quit when you want to quit. Short term results mean nothing unless you are not ever going to play again.
link to original post
Actually short term results mean everything when it's time to fill out your taxes.
The IRS doesn't care about your advantage or the house edge... the IRS only cares if you have a profit or not.
link to original post
My investigative journalism has shown that 99% of people do not report their table game wins.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
April 21st, 2022 at 11:03:11 AM
permalink
Quote: DRichQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DRichYou quit when you want to quit. Short term results mean nothing unless you are not ever going to play again.
link to original post
Actually short term results mean everything when it's time to fill out your taxes.
The IRS doesn't care about your advantage or the house edge... the IRS only cares if you have a profit or not.
link to original post
My investigative journalism has shown that 99% of people do not report their table game wins.
link to original post
You may be right. And I think many people don't report non-W2G wins as well.
April 21st, 2022 at 12:21:59 PM
permalink
Duplicate
It’s all about making that GTA
April 21st, 2022 at 12:22:05 PM
permalink
That statement applies to most untraceable cash transactions, gambling or otherwise.Quote: DRich
My investigative journalism has shown that 99% of people do not report their table game wins.
link to original post
Technically it's rarely tax evasion since 99% of gamblers are long term losers, though the IRS probably disagrees with that view
It’s all about making that GTA
April 21st, 2022 at 2:06:33 PM
permalink
Quote: Ace2That statement applies to most untraceable cash transactions, gambling or otherwise.Quote: DRich
My investigative journalism has shown that 99% of people do not report their table game wins.
link to original post
Technically it's rarely tax evasion since 99% of gamblers are long term losers, though the IRS probably disagrees with that view
link to original post
Son of a gun, I believe I made similar statements on this and other threads. All casino wins that do NOT generate W2G's of similar reporting instruments are NOT, in the eyes of the IRS, taxable events. Thanks for the affirmations.
tuttigym
April 21st, 2022 at 2:29:49 PM
permalink
Quote: tuttigymAll casino wins that do NOT generate W2G's of similar reporting instruments are NOT, in the eyes of the IRS, taxable events. Thanks for the affirmations.
It's not clear to me that's what Ace meant.
My interpretation of what Ace meant is that "the IRS probably disagrees" with this view..."it's rarely tax evasion since 99% of gamblers are long term losers".
April 21st, 2022 at 2:44:02 PM
permalink
You guys are missing a key point.
When you report even non W2G wins -- EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE OFFSET BY LOSSES -- it still increases your Adjustable Gross Income which can raise your overall tax rate.
When you report even non W2G wins -- EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE OFFSET BY LOSSES -- it still increases your Adjustable Gross Income which can raise your overall tax rate.
April 21st, 2022 at 2:47:56 PM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou guys are missing a key point.
When you report even non W2G wins -- EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE OFFSET BY LOSSES -- it still increases your Adjustable Gross Income which can raise your overall tax rate.
link to original post
Correct, plus gambling losses are an itemized deduction so people that aren’t otherwise would take the standard deduction take a direct hit.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
April 21st, 2022 at 8:34:26 PM
permalink
It wasn't very scientific, but it worked.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 22nd, 2022 at 8:45:15 AM
permalink
Well I'll just report my casino winnings in casino cashier check deposits to my bank. Hope the banks accept them, otherwise I'll have to find a payday lender or something to cash them.
April 22nd, 2022 at 9:02:29 AM
permalink
No, I was takin itQuote: MDawg
link to original post
It’s all about making that GTA
April 22nd, 2022 at 11:11:52 AM
permalink
Ace2, you know the house always wins. But not when MDawg is around.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 22nd, 2022 at 11:36:57 AM
permalink
Quote: Ace2That statement applies to most untraceable cash transactions, gambling or otherwise.Quote: DRich
My investigative journalism has shown that 99% of people do not report their table game wins.
link to original post
Technically it's rarely tax evasion since 99% of gamblers are long term losers, though the IRS probably disagrees with that view
link to original post
The IRS is NOT a thinking, mind-reading, or speculating entity. It accumulates hard data received and reacts dispassionately to conclusions by individual actors presented. The "losers" are those trying to skirt the law. Some here seem to be giving such entities human qualities. It is a governmental department.
tuttigym
April 22nd, 2022 at 1:31:32 PM
permalink
Just like KK Ichikawa never loses.Quote: MDawgAce2, you know the house always wins. But not when MDawg is around.
You are always welcome at the Tangiers, Mr. MDawg. Our best customers are the ones that "never lose".
Regards,
Ace2 Rothstein
It’s all about making that GTA
April 22nd, 2022 at 6:24:22 PM
permalink
KK Ichikawa should have stopped when he was ahead. Two million. Instead he left behind and with only free soap, shampoo and towels.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:01:18 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson
Quitting when ahead violates nothing about math.
By the way... there is a principle known as setting a stop loss. It doesnt violate math either.
link to original post
Alan, it's very unfortunate that you were a news reporter and that you are here delivering false and misleading info
a stop loss only works if the player never come back - if he does come back what difference does it make if he stopped playing on Wednesday but comes back on Thursday___________?
I'll answer that myself - it makes zero difference - you are assigning great importance to the time of day or day of the week or month or year
it's total nonsense
re your ideas about quitting while you are ahead
this will only work if the player never comes back - which is indeed a rarity
he didn't quit while he's ahead if he stopped playing on Wednesday - because he's coming back Thursday
again, the time of day, or day of the week or month or year mean nothing
you are fantasizing that the various times that a player plays have great importance
to summarize______________your posts re these 2 concepts are absolute and total nonsense
I haven't intended to be insulting - only to speak the truth
when you speak the truth you let the chips fall where they may
a great number of people are away that if a player has won in the long run it is either because he has a mathematical or handicapping edge or because he experienced a statstical outlier
nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run becuase they stopped their loss on Wednesday and came back to play on Thursday or because they quit while they were ahead on Friday and came back to play on Saturday
.
Please don't feed the trolls
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:15:55 AM
permalink
I didnt read your entire post. Just the first line about stop losses got me to write this.
Stop losses are used every day in stock trading and in business. When a business or a stock trader initiates a stop loss he doesn't shut down forever. He stops a trade or a line of clothing.
Why cant a player in a casino use that same principle when the cards or the dice or the wheel or the RNG are going against them?
The player doesn't have to quit forever just like the stock trader or the business owner doesn't have to quit forever.
The same way the stock trader can come back with a new trade, and the same way a business owner can come back with a new line of clothing, the casino player can come back with a new bet.
Now I'll read the rest of your post.
Stop losses are used every day in stock trading and in business. When a business or a stock trader initiates a stop loss he doesn't shut down forever. He stops a trade or a line of clothing.
Why cant a player in a casino use that same principle when the cards or the dice or the wheel or the RNG are going against them?
The player doesn't have to quit forever just like the stock trader or the business owner doesn't have to quit forever.
The same way the stock trader can come back with a new trade, and the same way a business owner can come back with a new line of clothing, the casino player can come back with a new bet.
Now I'll read the rest of your post.
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:20:52 AM
permalink
I read the rest of your post.
Oh boy.
Did you ever run a business? Did you ever have to change a business model when things were going poorly? Did you ever sell a business for a profit because you did things right?
Did you ever trade stocks or options?
If you did then you know you can apply stop loses and "quitting when ahead" to gambling.
Oh boy.
Did you ever run a business? Did you ever have to change a business model when things were going poorly? Did you ever sell a business for a profit because you did things right?
Did you ever trade stocks or options?
If you did then you know you can apply stop loses and "quitting when ahead" to gambling.
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:24:44 AM
permalink
Wow….
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:29:54 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson
Did you ever trade stocks or options?
If you did then you know you can apply stop loses
link to original post
stop losses in trading stocks is a complete and totally different thing
the trader is stopping his loss on one stock - he's not stopping trading - this may make sense depending if his opinion on the direction of that one stock or option is correct - that is something that is possible to accurately predict for skilled traders - it's not possible to accurately predict that the 6 or 8 are due at a craps table on the next roll
you're mixing apples and oranges
stopping your loss at craps on Wednesday and coming back to play on Thursday
and quitting while you're ahead at craps on Friday and coming back to play on Saturday
is that a way to win in the long run_____________????
no, it's a folk tale from long ago that's been discredited many, many times
the Wizard opened up this site for the purpose of providing highly accurate info re wagering
you are mucking up the site with nonsense. if the Wizard decided to comment on your posts he would also peg them as nonsense
.
Please don't feed the trolls
April 23rd, 2022 at 1:56:07 AM
permalink
Where is the nonsense if I put $20 into a 25-cent 8/5 Bonus poker game... hit 4 aces for $100 on the first spin... cash out and leave?
That's using the stop loss. Thats all a stop loss is.
Where is the nonsense in that?
Here's another example. I put $20 in and after 5 plays at $1 25 per play I've hit nothing. I lost $6.25 and cash out $13.75 and leave.
That's also using the stop loss.
Where is the nonsense in that?
Who says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
That's using the stop loss. Thats all a stop loss is.
Where is the nonsense in that?
Here's another example. I put $20 in and after 5 plays at $1 25 per play I've hit nothing. I lost $6.25 and cash out $13.75 and leave.
That's also using the stop loss.
Where is the nonsense in that?
Who says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
April 23rd, 2022 at 2:35:49 AM
permalink
___________
it's not nonsense if you never play again___________granted________________but just about every player does__________and in your original posts you did not indicate that you would never play again______________and most of your posts are about craps which from your posts I would surmise that you play very often
Alan, it's very obvious you post this stuff so that you can fantasize that the house has no edge over you at craps, and that you in fact have an edge over the house
it's a way for many to rationalize playing this game for a very long time_______many years_________I'm not saying that's you_____________that's not my place to say that
this will be my last post on this subject___________believe what you want to believe__________it's a free country
.
it's not nonsense if you never play again___________granted________________but just about every player does__________and in your original posts you did not indicate that you would never play again______________and most of your posts are about craps which from your posts I would surmise that you play very often
Alan, it's very obvious you post this stuff so that you can fantasize that the house has no edge over you at craps, and that you in fact have an edge over the house
it's a way for many to rationalize playing this game for a very long time_______many years_________I'm not saying that's you_____________that's not my place to say that
this will be my last post on this subject___________believe what you want to believe__________it's a free country
.
Please don't feed the trolls
April 23rd, 2022 at 5:16:07 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonWho says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
link to original post
Nobody. You had fun. If the fun is done, it's time to move on.
If someone does a stop loss on a stock position or a retail product, my understanding is they find something else to invest in, something with a different price, or a product with a new more flattering cut and color, or now with salted peanut butter, or something... different.
When you come back to the craps table after a break, they'll still let you buy, on average, 98.86 cents for $1. (edit: 98.59. Sorry.)
The rules haven't changed. The dice are as close to the same as the last batch as they can make them. The crew may be different, so maybe you tip them more because thankfully this stick has some humorous calls for a change, but they're not suddenly paying 47 for 1 on a yo.
If you prefer slots, you can still buy flashing lights and 89 cents for a dollar. I suppose if the break is long enough, they might update the pricing to 87 cents for a dollar, but I don't think that improves your prospects.
May the cards fall in your favor.
April 23rd, 2022 at 6:55:54 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterAlan, it's very obvious you post this stuff so that you can fantasize that the house has no edge over you at craps, and that you in fact have an edge over the house
.
link to original post
This is getting ridiculous. Every one of you who are opposed to stop losses constantly bring this up -- that a stop loss or quitting when ahead is some attempt to alter the house edge or to beat the edge.
I've said it every time. No matter what you bet the house edge doesnt change.
Stop losses and quitting when ahead is a personal money management tool.
Stop this attempt at putting words into my mouth.
And let me say something else: all of you have a stop loss as well whether you admit it or not. Your stop loss could simply be the amount of cash in your wallet representing your daily buy in, or it could be your total bankroll if you are a professional gambler.
And if you've never said to yourself "this was a great run and I'm coloring up" then you've never had a great run.
April 23rd, 2022 at 7:06:08 AM
permalink
Quote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonWho says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
link to original post
Nobody. You had fun. If the fun is done, it's time to move on.
If someone does a stop loss on a stock position or a retail product, my understanding is they find something else to invest in, something with a different price, or a product with a new more flattering cut and color, or now with salted peanut butter, or something... different.
When you come back to the craps table after a break, they'll still let you buy, on average, 98.86 cents for $1. (edit: 98.59. Sorry.)
The rules haven't changed. The dice are as close to the same as the last batch as they can make them. The crew may be different, so maybe you tip them more because thankfully this stick has some humorous calls for a change, but they're not suddenly paying 47 for 1 on a yo.
If you prefer slots, you can still buy flashing lights and 89 cents for a dollar. I suppose if the break is long enough, they might update the pricing to 87 cents for a dollar, but I don't think that improves your prospects.
link to original post
But quitting while ahead made him a winner. Yesterday.
I think it is a fine thing if your only goal is to walk out a winner.
A person spends an hour getting to his favorite casino, bellys up to the rail, and wins his first bet. It makes all the sense in the world to turn around and walk away. Drive home, secure in the knowledge you beat the evil casino. You are a lifetime winner. Enjoy your winnings. You deserve them.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
April 23rd, 2022 at 7:13:02 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonWho says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
link to original post
Nobody. You had fun. If the fun is done, it's time to move on.
If someone does a stop loss on a stock position or a retail product, my understanding is they find something else to invest in, something with a different price, or a product with a new more flattering cut and color, or now with salted peanut butter, or something... different.
When you come back to the craps table after a break, they'll still let you buy, on average, 98.86 cents for $1. (edit: 98.59. Sorry.)
The rules haven't changed. The dice are as close to the same as the last batch as they can make them. The crew may be different, so maybe you tip them more because thankfully this stick has some humorous calls for a change, but they're not suddenly paying 47 for 1 on a yo.
If you prefer slots, you can still buy flashing lights and 89 cents for a dollar. I suppose if the break is long enough, they might update the pricing to 87 cents for a dollar, but I don't think that improves your prospects.
link to original post
But quitting while ahead made him a winner. Yesterday.
I think it is a fine thing if your only goal is to walk out a winner.
A person spends an hour getting to his favorite casino, bellys up to the rail, and wins his first bet. It makes all the sense in the world to turn around and walk away. Drive home, secure in the knowledge you beat the evil casino. You are a lifetime winner. Enjoy your winnings. You deserve them.
link to original post
You and I don't do that because we're making $10, $15 and $25 bets.
But Mdawg can walk from his room, win one or two $5,000 bets, take the wins and walk away and get one of his super steaks.
April 23rd, 2022 at 7:18:32 AM
permalink
Quote: lilredroosterwhen you speak the truth you let the chips fall where they may
a great number of people are away that if a player has won in the long run it is either because he has a mathematical or handicapping edge or because he experienced a statstical outlier
nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Speaking the "truth" is important. So how about you DEFINING (emphasis) specifically "long term" or "long run"? Those phrases are meaningless, without specificity, vague, and provide cover to those who do not wish to be challenged with any kind of certainty.
It seems that you are in a crusade shouting to all who participate in gaming that they are LOSERS, stupid, foolish, mindless, and so forth. Your gambling experiences have obviously formed your frame of reference, but those are YOUR gambling experiences.
tuttigym
April 23rd, 2022 at 7:33:13 AM
permalink
Quote: tuttigymQuote: lilredroosterwhen you speak the truth you let the chips fall where they may
a great number of people are away that if a player has won in the long run it is either because he has a mathematical or handicapping edge or because he experienced a statstical outlier
nobody, I repeat nobody, wins in the long run
Speaking the "truth" is important. So how about you DEFINING (emphasis) specifically "long term" or "long run"? Those phrases are meaningless, without specificity, vague, and provide cover to those who do not wish to be challenged with any kind of certainty.
It seems that you are in a crusade shouting to all who participate in gaming that they are LOSERS, stupid, foolish, mindless, and so forth. Your gambling experiences have obviously formed your frame of reference, but those are YOUR gambling experiences.
tuttigym
link to original post
Tuttigym, your heart is in the right place I believe.
Gambling works for the casino by the simple aspect of shortchange. Every wager you make the player is short changed or short payed.
What if you and I had a simple wager of heads and tails on a quarter. Ten dollars a flip. Every time I win you pay me ten dollars.
And every time you win I will only pay you nine dollars!
Even though you may be up and win the first few flips over time (regardless of taking off a day or a week or a year) you will eventually lose your money to me because as you reach actually winning fifty percent of the time, you have been winning ten percent less than I do when you lose
Roulette is the easiest game to see this aspect. 38 numbers but if you win you only get paid 35:1 even though proper and fair payment is 37:1.
Statistically the long run is extremely long. But as most every gambler in the world will testify to, it usually takes about four hours. The average patron feels his bankroll depleted by that shortchange tactic within four hours.
That is Why 99% of patrons leave broke. The ones who don't are just dumb lucky.
I am not including Advantage players of course. What they do is actually turn the tables so that short changed aspect the casinos use against the player's are used against them. But MDawg says he doesn't use AP tactics.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
April 23rd, 2022 at 8:32:28 AM
permalink
Except..........for the free odds bet in craps!Quote: darkoz
Gambling works for the casino by the simple aspect of shortchange. Every wager you make the player is short changed or short payed.
It’s all about making that GTA
April 23rd, 2022 at 9:21:39 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonWho says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
link to original post
Nobody. You had fun. If the fun is done, it's time to move on.
If someone does a stop loss on a stock position or a retail product, my understanding is they find something else to invest in, something with a different price, or a product with a new more flattering cut and color, or now with salted peanut butter, or something... different.
When you come back to the craps table after a break, they'll still let you buy, on average, 98.86 cents for $1. (edit: 98.59. Sorry.)
The rules haven't changed. The dice are as close to the same as the last batch as they can make them. The crew may be different, so maybe you tip them more because thankfully this stick has some humorous calls for a change, but they're not suddenly paying 47 for 1 on a yo.
If you prefer slots, you can still buy flashing lights and 89 cents for a dollar. I suppose if the break is long enough, they might update the pricing to 87 cents for a dollar, but I don't think that improves your prospects.
link to original post
But quitting while ahead made him a winner. Yesterday.
I think it is a fine thing if your only goal is to walk out a winner.
A person spends an hour getting to his favorite casino, bellys up to the rail, and wins his first bet. It makes all the sense in the world to turn around and walk away. Drive home, secure in the knowledge you beat the evil casino. You are a lifetime winner. Enjoy your winnings. You deserve them.
link to original post
You and I don't do that because we're making $10, $15 and $25 bets.
But Mdawg can walk from his room, win one or two $5,000 bets, take the wins and walk away and get one of his super steaks.
link to original post
So your strategy doesn't work with $10 bets, but adding another zero or two to the bet transforms it into a winning strategy? Are they magic zeroes?
How does one both walk away and get on a super streak?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
April 23rd, 2022 at 9:26:59 AM
permalink
Quote: darkoz
Tuttigym, your heart is in the right place I believe.
Gambling works for the casino by the simple aspect of shortchange. Every wager you make the player is short changed or short payed.
What if you and I had a simple wager of heads and tails on a quarter. Ten dollars a flip. Every time I win you pay me ten dollars.
And every time you win I will only pay you nine dollars!
Even though you may be up and win the first few flips over time (regardless of taking off a day or a week or a year) you will eventually lose your money to me because as you reach actually winning fifty percent of the time, you have been winning ten percent less than I do when you lose
Roulette is the easiest game to see this aspect. 38 numbers but if you win you only get paid 35:1 even though proper and fair payment is 37:1.
Statistically the long run is extremely long. But as most every gambler in the world will testify to, it usually takes about four hours. The average patron feels his bankroll depleted by that shortchange tactic within four hours.
That is Why 99% of patrons leave broke. The ones who don't are just dumb lucky.
I am not including Advantage players of course. What they do is actually turn the tables so that short changed aspect the casinos use against the player's are used against them. But MDawg says he doesn't use AP tactics.
link to original post
Mr.darkoz: The basic concept of gambling and the advantages the house has allows the house to prevail as you have stated. I get that, and I am fully aware that the vast majority of patrons do not win. I believe it might be an overstatement and over simplification that "99% of patrons leave broke," although I know you know that phrase was used for effect.
While there is, in general, a mathematical "short change" HA/HE happening because of a game's rules or make-up, the vast majority of folks who engage in play are either not aware or they don't care. Your analogy is not, for me, an apples to apples parallel in that a player's odds of winning and the payout of a particular bet are based not only on the math but on the rules of the game. For instance, in craps, if I place bet $5 on the 9 and hit, the game pays me $7. So in that instance I made an 80% profit on that wager. The casino is not paying me $4 as in your illustration of coin flipping. Was I "short changed"? The actual odds say I was, but an 80% profit is still better than a coin flip at even money. Your roulette example, for me, is way off the mark. That $1 wager wins $35. I wasn't "short changed." I made a huge profit. The casino lost big time. Why do I have to care that odds purists somehow require a bigger profit when there is none to be had because the rules and the game dictate otherwise?
There is constant whining on this forum about casino or game payouts somehow not being fair, that the players are being "short changed," or some other inequity. To those folks I say get over it and find some other forms of recreation that meet your criteria of fairness and equity.
tuttigym
April 23rd, 2022 at 9:34:33 AM
permalink
Quote: billryanQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonWho says I have to keep playing after a win? Who says I have to keep playing after a loss?
link to original post
Nobody. You had fun. If the fun is done, it's time to move on.
If someone does a stop loss on a stock position or a retail product, my understanding is they find something else to invest in, something with a different price, or a product with a new more flattering cut and color, or now with salted peanut butter, or something... different.
When you come back to the craps table after a break, they'll still let you buy, on average, 98.86 cents for $1. (edit: 98.59. Sorry.)
The rules haven't changed. The dice are as close to the same as the last batch as they can make them. The crew may be different, so maybe you tip them more because thankfully this stick has some humorous calls for a change, but they're not suddenly paying 47 for 1 on a yo.
If you prefer slots, you can still buy flashing lights and 89 cents for a dollar. I suppose if the break is long enough, they might update the pricing to 87 cents for a dollar, but I don't think that improves your prospects.
link to original post
But quitting while ahead made him a winner. Yesterday.
I think it is a fine thing if your only goal is to walk out a winner.
A person spends an hour getting to his favorite casino, bellys up to the rail, and wins his first bet. It makes all the sense in the world to turn around and walk away. Drive home, secure in the knowledge you beat the evil casino. You are a lifetime winner. Enjoy your winnings. You deserve them.
link to original post
You and I don't do that because we're making $10, $15 and $25 bets.
But Mdawg can walk from his room, win one or two $5,000 bets, take the wins and walk away and get one of his super steaks.
link to original post
So your strategy doesn't work with $10 bets, but adding another zero or two to the bet transforms it into a winning strategy? Are they magic zeroes?
How does one both walk away and get on a super streak?
link to original post
Wow. Now you call it a strategy?
Go back to counting dice.
Come back when you understand what money management means.
April 23rd, 2022 at 9:43:59 AM
permalink
Tuttigym when a $5 bet on 9 is paid $7 it's a return of 140%.... or am I wrong?
April 23rd, 2022 at 9:52:22 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: billryanQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelson
But quitting while ahead made him a winner. Yesterday.
I think it is a fine thing if your only goal is to walk out a winner.
A person spends an hour getting to his favorite casino, bellys up to the rail, and wins his first bet. It makes all the sense in the world to turn around and walk away. Drive home, secure in the knowledge you beat the evil casino. You are a lifetime winner. Enjoy your winnings. You deserve them.
link to original post
You and I don't do that because we're making $10, $15 and $25 bets.
But Mdawg can walk from his room, win one or two $5,000 bets, take the wins and walk away and get one of his super steaks.
[
So your strategy doesn't work with $10 bets, but adding another zero or two to the bet transforms it into a winning strategy? Are they magic zeroes?
How does one both walk away and get on a super streak?
link to original post
Wow. Now you call it a strategy?
Go back to counting dice.
Come back when you understand what money management means.
link to original post
Damn, that is so unintentionally ironic.The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:20:19 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonTuttigym when a $5 bet on 9 is paid $7 it's a return of 140%.... or am I wrong?
link to original post
You are correct. My 4th grade arithmetic failed me. Thanks for the assist. There is that profit.
tuttigym
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:28:39 AM
permalink
____________
ever wonder why gamblers who really seem to want be winners don't learn to count cards at blackjack or handicap sports or do machine AP stuff like DarkOz________________???
these are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
answer_______________because those things are hard___________to most or many people anyway
and most gamblers are looking for easy money__________and many, due to selective memory believe they have found it
.
ever wonder why gamblers who really seem to want be winners don't learn to count cards at blackjack or handicap sports or do machine AP stuff like DarkOz________________???
these are areas of gambling where there is real potential to be long term winners
answer_______________because those things are hard___________to most or many people anyway
and most gamblers are looking for easy money__________and many, due to selective memory believe they have found it
.
Please don't feed the trolls
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:31:23 AM
permalink
Tuttigym
You are describing a single wager win.
I am explaining to you that over time the short change wagers made over and over again will whittle the gambler down.
That's the long term. And it usually takes about four hours for it to work in the real world.
Statistically it's millions of games but doesn't take that long in practice.
If you feel you can overcome that then go use your magic bullet at the casino and report back on your adventures.
You are describing a single wager win.
I am explaining to you that over time the short change wagers made over and over again will whittle the gambler down.
That's the long term. And it usually takes about four hours for it to work in the real world.
Statistically it's millions of games but doesn't take that long in practice.
If you feel you can overcome that then go use your magic bullet at the casino and report back on your adventures.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:49:39 AM
permalink
Quote: darkozTuttigym
You are describing a single wager win.
I am explaining to you that over time the short change wagers made over and over again will whittle the gambler down.
That's the long term. And it usually takes about four hours for it to work in the real world.
Statistically it's millions of games but doesn't take that long in practice.
If you feel you can overcome that then go use your magic bullet at the casino and report back on your adventures.
link to original post
Is it really the "edge" that whittles you down or is it losing the actual bets?
If I start with $300 and I'm making $10 passline bets but only lose 1.4% I can stay at the table a long, long time. But I'm not losing 1.4%. I'm losing 100% of $10 when I lose.
I'm not trying to be facetious or argumentative here. I'm just pointing out that a discussion of odds and house edge is not directly applicable to what a gambler experiences.
I'm probably not making myself clear with this so I'll probably be attacked and called a blockhead.
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:52:14 AM
permalink
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: darkozTuttigym
You are describing a single wager win.
I am explaining to you that over time the short change wagers made over and over again will whittle the gambler down.
That's the long term. And it usually takes about four hours for it to work in the real world.
Statistically it's millions of games but doesn't take that long in practice.
If you feel you can overcome that then go use your magic bullet at the casino and report back on your adventures.
link to original post
Is it really the "edge" that whittles you down or is it losing the actual bets?
If I start with $300 and I'm making $10 passline bets but only lose 1.4% I can stay at the table a long, long time. But I'm not losing 1.4%. I'm losing 100% of $10 when I lose.
I'm not trying to be facetious or argumentative here. I'm just pointing out that a discussion of odds and house edge is not directly applicable to what a gambler experiences.
I'm probably not making myself clear with this so I'll probably be attacked and called a blockhead.
link to original post
And you’ll win about 35 of those $10 bets and lose about 36 of those $10 bets.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:53:48 AM
permalink
Quote: Ace2Except..........for the free odds bet in craps!Quote: darkoz
Gambling works for the casino by the simple aspect of shortchange. Every wager you make the player is short changed or short payed.
link to original post
And I believe the fifth unit in VP? Though I’m not a VP player so not sure.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
April 23rd, 2022 at 10:59:53 AM
permalink
IF that was the first and last bet you ever made then, yes, you made a nice profit. But that doesn't apply to 99.9999% of gamblers.Quote: tuttigymThat $1 wager wins $35. I wasn't "short changed." I made a huge profit. The casino lost big time.
We play regularly and over the long term you will lose that bet 37 times for every time you win it. So, for a fair game, you need to be paid $37 when you win, but the casino short changes you $2. And that is how they make their profits...easier than 4th grade arithmetic
Incidentally, I would not play if I lost most of the time. But if you play very low edge games like passline with full odds or blackjack with basic strategy, the edge is so low that you don't even notice it. In 20 trips to Vegas I probably win 9 and lose 11, and that's thousands and thousands of bets.
It’s all about making that GTA
April 23rd, 2022 at 11:43:29 AM
permalink
The other problem with quit while you are ahead is how much.
I take $5 spin at slot and win $6. I'm ahead! Quit?
I take $5 spin at slot and win $6. I'm ahead! Quit?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
April 23rd, 2022 at 11:58:29 AM
permalink
There is some imprecision here. A stock trader might buy in and out and then back in and out of the same stock. I trade mostly just a small number of stocks and there are periods when I will trade only the same stock over and over. After closing out a trade, I might reenter the same stock at a lower price a higher price or the same price (at a different time). As well sometimes I will buy shares in a given company’s stock then buy more of the same at a lower price and then sell all shares at the same time as I exit the trade. In any case to say that a stock trader who exits a position for any reason - profitably or not - will not immediately, soon after or eventually reenter a position in the exact same stock is incorrect.
Indeed the whole point of stock trading is to clip off a section of a stock’s run to lock in a short term profit. To quit (close out) while ahead. And then perhaps rinse repeat with the same stock.
As far as my casino play before my decade or so hiatus I used to play as many hours as I could - morning afternoon night - and although the end result was Ahead I had ups and downs and some losing trips here and there. Since returning to casino play I’ve played far differently generally only one session a day and as soon as I have a good run that takes me nicely ahead whether it happens in a few minutes or hours I stop for the entire day if not for a few days. And - I haven’t had a losing trip during this Vegas 2.0 reboot and some of my trips have been of world record length. There might be other factors at play here but the difference between my play before and my play now is definitely stopping each session after a nice run takes me nicely ahead versus before just playing as many hours as I could.
In my other thread MDawg's Investments there was some discussion about "dead money" stocks - stocks that haven't budged in price in say, a two year period. The IRS defines "long term" as anything over one year. So if you bot such a stock two years ago, and held it for two years, you'd perhaps gain nothing. But what if you clipped winning trades off it all along the way? Then you would have made money, long term, in a -EV situation. Consider, then, a stock that goes up and down all day, on a given day, ending at exactly where it started, or slightly below. So from the outside someone looks at its chart for the day and considers that you were fighting an -EV situation and opines that you could not have made money that day. But traders can and do make money off a stock that over all drops during the course of the day, ends up having gone sideways by the end of the day, or goes up by the end of the day.
In short - commenting on what stock traders do when you are not an active trader or on what should or should not happen in mainline casino play when you’re not putting in the hours days weeks months at the tables might lend to imprecision.
Indeed the whole point of stock trading is to clip off a section of a stock’s run to lock in a short term profit. To quit (close out) while ahead. And then perhaps rinse repeat with the same stock.
As far as my casino play before my decade or so hiatus I used to play as many hours as I could - morning afternoon night - and although the end result was Ahead I had ups and downs and some losing trips here and there. Since returning to casino play I’ve played far differently generally only one session a day and as soon as I have a good run that takes me nicely ahead whether it happens in a few minutes or hours I stop for the entire day if not for a few days. And - I haven’t had a losing trip during this Vegas 2.0 reboot and some of my trips have been of world record length. There might be other factors at play here but the difference between my play before and my play now is definitely stopping each session after a nice run takes me nicely ahead versus before just playing as many hours as I could.
In my other thread MDawg's Investments there was some discussion about "dead money" stocks - stocks that haven't budged in price in say, a two year period. The IRS defines "long term" as anything over one year. So if you bot such a stock two years ago, and held it for two years, you'd perhaps gain nothing. But what if you clipped winning trades off it all along the way? Then you would have made money, long term, in a -EV situation. Consider, then, a stock that goes up and down all day, on a given day, ending at exactly where it started, or slightly below. So from the outside someone looks at its chart for the day and considers that you were fighting an -EV situation and opines that you could not have made money that day. But traders can and do make money off a stock that over all drops during the course of the day, ends up having gone sideways by the end of the day, or goes up by the end of the day.
In short - commenting on what stock traders do when you are not an active trader or on what should or should not happen in mainline casino play when you’re not putting in the hours days weeks months at the tables might lend to imprecision.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
April 23rd, 2022 at 12:02:29 PM
permalink
Usually it's a 6 hour visit to the casino and do you quit if you're even at hour 4, quit while ahead at hour 5, or quit while behind 10 minutes before the bus leaves?
As for House Edge, if I'm down 50 bets at the dice table in 3 hours, why was that? Is it because I made horrible prop bets or is it because my low HA bets didn't win? The Hot Shooters failed to show up or I failed to bet on them properly when they did because I already switched to the Don't then the table turned hot?
If your Player's Card at the Bubble Craps said you bet $10,000 for the day and you only made PL & Come bets, no odds, no PB's, would your total loss be $140 because of the HA, or would your loss be $500 because you're down 50 $10 bets?
As for House Edge, if I'm down 50 bets at the dice table in 3 hours, why was that? Is it because I made horrible prop bets or is it because my low HA bets didn't win? The Hot Shooters failed to show up or I failed to bet on them properly when they did because I already switched to the Don't then the table turned hot?
If your Player's Card at the Bubble Craps said you bet $10,000 for the day and you only made PL & Come bets, no odds, no PB's, would your total loss be $140 because of the HA, or would your loss be $500 because you're down 50 $10 bets?
April 23rd, 2022 at 12:12:48 PM
permalink
Casinos don't make their money off of losing bets, the real money is their hidden tax on winnings. If you bet a single number in roulette, a win should pay 38 units, but the casino "taxes" you 3 units and pays you 35. Those 3 units are gone forever, there is nothing you can do to get them back.
When you lose, the casino wins. When you win, the casino gets a small tax. The more you win, the more small taxes for the casino.
When you lose, the casino wins. When you win, the casino gets a small tax. The more you win, the more small taxes for the casino.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
April 23rd, 2022 at 12:18:13 PM
permalink
You might have to read the entire post to get the correct context, but....
Quote: MDawg
If players always just played to see "what might be" every session, then yes I could see the house edge becoming an issue. But if a player is determined to keep playing the chances that a bust out will happen increase with greater exposure as losses are chased. And it is these repeated massive bust outs, these black holes that players fall into, that give the casino a nice pile of cash. The big Bacc player with a $20M line who keeps dumping $20M trip after trip bolsters the casino's bottom line significantly more than the Bacc player who sits there flat betting only Bank and possibly dropping the house edge. In short, if you believe that it is possible to refuse to get up off the table until you've lost it all then you have to accept that it is possible to get off the table when you're ahead. You just can't explain these Bacc players who dump their entire big bankrolls every single trip because of the house edge. Those same players could be playing a Bacc table with 2.8% or whatever commission on the Bank and they'd still get blown out trip after trip.
Conversely, a player like me wins trip after trip and if you reduced the commission to 2.8% I wouldn't take home any more or less, I might just get to my session goals an insignificant amount of time faster is all.
link to original post
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
