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unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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September 9th, 2019 at 8:39:26 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

So just an FYI, since you're doing this to test things and learn... The "sharp money" all around the sports betting arena was on the Texans +7. Glad you pulled it off (and so did my rather large bet Texans +7), but just a hint that it looks like you were on the wrong side there, at least according to all the sharp money bet in vegas and online.

Well that is what was reported ATS, which did move to either +6.5 or +7 -120. But the money line didnít move that way. Book I saw moved opposite direction from +240 earlier in day to +260.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
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September 9th, 2019 at 8:40:44 PM permalink
Fun story (at least for me)... Ages ago when I knew absolutely nothing (marginally less) I bet a 10 team parlay on heavy favorite college football money lines and hit it. I was on a promotion online. It was the first time a casino refused to pay my bet. I got my account locked after being less than cordial with their customer service department. Oh, the good old days when online casinos free rolled you... how times have changed.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 111
September 9th, 2019 at 9:10:21 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

betting on BIG favorites on the money line and betting BIG after a loss (the CHASE SYSTEM)
has been done at least 1.34 million times in the recent past.
It is a disaster waiting to happen and it does fail 100% of the time.


When it does, Iíll quit. I am here because it has worked for me thus far and only by doing it where others can see can I know for certain.
Quote: 7craps


of course, many losers believe their way, and that is GREAT!

The top sports pickers laugh too.
LOL
great comedy!
take ALL the sports books cash and shut them all down
LOL


Iím playing with house money so why not test on someone elseís dime? Even if this worked, Iím not taking the bookís cash, just the bettors on the other side.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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September 9th, 2019 at 9:53:41 PM permalink
Quote: es330td

I will declare success or failure at that point.

I'll be happy to save you some time and make you a declaration now.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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September 10th, 2019 at 1:47:17 AM permalink
es330d,
do you know you can block the disparaging comments of those sinister know-it-alls, who for whatever bizarre psychological reason feel threatened when they see someone who knows his things better than they. Incompetence and lack of confidence are known to generate a need to belittle those who have competence and confidence.
Donít read them. Donít answer them. Misuse of your time and excessive respect for theirs.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
  • Threads: 27
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September 10th, 2019 at 5:09:32 AM permalink
I, among others, appreciate following your efforts.
Of course, even if you deny it, it is just too tempting as a game for us to guess what the system is. I would ask several questions if you had not explicitly said not to.

Keep on. Itís fun.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 740
September 10th, 2019 at 5:37:33 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

So just an FYI, since you're doing this to test things and learn... The "sharp money" all around the sports betting arena was on the Texans +7. Glad you pulled it off (and so did my rather large bet Texans +7), but just a hint that it looks like you were on the wrong side there, at least according to all the sharp money bet in vegas and online.



This is not accurate.
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 111
September 10th, 2019 at 5:53:45 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

I, among others, appreciate following your efforts.
Of course, even if you deny it, it is just too tempting as a game for us to guess what the system is. I would ask several questions if you had not explicitly said not to.

Keep on. Itís fun.



I fully expect people to attempt to guess what I am doing; in fact, I think that people will generally figure out what I am doing. What I am not going to do is confirm or deny peopleís guesses. Like the guy who after my second pick said ďLooks like a martingale on heavy favorites.Ē I didnít reply to that to say yes or no.
es330td
es330td
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 111
Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabskubikulann
September 10th, 2019 at 7:23:00 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

es330d,
do you know you can block the disparaging comments of those sinister know-it-alls, who for whatever bizarre psychological reason feel threatened when they see someone who knows his things better than they. Incompetence and lack of confidence are known to generate a need to belittle those who have competence and confidence.
Donít read them. Donít answer them. Misuse of your time and excessive respect for theirs.



I do know I can block comments. I want to see the criticism. I am here to see if something works and want to hear every last doubt or critique. I am being criticized after four data points; I have 500 so the early naysayers donít really bother me. It is more amusing than anything else. I appreciate 7craps organizing my action in a clean table format.

The background behind this is pretty substantial. I was inspired to do this because of something Mike Shackleford wrote. I came up with the methodology and wrote a program to test it. I defined in the program what constituted success and failure, failure being total loss of bankroll. In 1 million trials it failed 14 times. As a person who has studied engineering I know this should not work and yet it has.

Everything I have done thus far has been done in secret. I could be making all of this up or I could have been altering in some way my activity to produce a desired outcome. What better way to verify the methodology then to do so publicly in the face of criticism?

I know why I pick the way I do; I have a well defined set of criteria so I donít care what ďthe sharpsď are saying or doing. My picks are correct 69.2% thus far and that is sufficient when combined with my bet sizing algorithm. I have a pretty ambitious target to declare success and if there is something wrong with this methodology I am sure it will be exposed before reaching my success point. 500 isnít that many trials so it could be Iíve just been lucky.

The only way to be certain is to do it ďOn the record.Ē Could there possibly be any better place to be proven right or wrong than a forum with a subheading that says ďAll betting systems are worthless?ď
Last edited by: es330td on Sep 10, 2019
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 92
  • Posts: 9620
September 10th, 2019 at 7:42:45 AM permalink
Quote: es330td

Thanks but I have a method I am testing based on line, bet sizing and bankroll. I tested it using one million trials and I have followed it for 500 actual picks to get me here. In all that time I have never considered anyone elseís opinion or pick. I am going to keep to my method until I get to where I want or I am bankrupt. I will declare success or failure at that point.



If you go bankrupt betting .38 then you have some major life problems.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

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