My sports bet tracking
Quote: kubikulannAs for the Americans mention,
I’m sorry to tell you that it is only on this forum that I meet such personal aggressiveness when discussing pure mathematical subjects.
Usually a contradictor would say, ‘I disagree with this point, here is my reasoning.’ Research is a pleasure because it is shared. Here it becomes some sort of arena where you must justify yourself.
Here I receive abuse such as ‘garbage’ and ‘he knows nothing’ and ‘human’ as a not-so-clever way to escape the insult while meaning ‘stupid’. And generally by people who are wrong and/or do not understand the basics of my developments.
Like I said, I resent it. Profoundly.
My reasonings may be wrong, this is no reason to attack my person.
Each time that happens I react and will react. I am a disciple of truth and free speech. If I observe that somebody behaves as a piece of sh*, I tell it loud. You don’t like it? Well behave then.
And I don’t see why you should interpret that as arrogance. There is a quote by Umberto Eco: « It is essential to preclude ignorants from public debate. » There is another by a Belgian politician: « When all the disgusted have fled, you’ll be stuck with the disgusting. »
Don’t disgust me by accepting uncalled-for agressive behaviour by moronic dickheads and then accusing me for responding. I will stop responding the day you sanction the attacker. « They did first blood, Sir! »
(If you want a list of the dickheads, ask me and I’ll send it PM.)
1. You agreed to, and thanked me trying to help you with the tone of this board. My post was in that vein as a follow-up.
2. unJon stayed within the rules (though somewhat rudely, I grant) when he called YOUR POST (NOT you) garbage. That's an important distinction here.
THEN, he paid you a large compliment when he said, "frankly I expected better of you". To me, that says you have earned a lot of respect on here, and he found the post to which he was responding, to be beneath your excellent standard, which you have demonstrated many times.
People are reading and appreciating your contributions. That comes with a bit of an obligation, it would seem.
3. In contrast, you made a disparaging remark about Americans. Not about content, but about the people on this board. That generated a caution from me.
4. In response, you referred to the PEOPLE on this board as dickheads twice, once adding moronic, in the post I quoted above.
Another idiom for you: two wrongs don't make a right. You perceive an insult whether it qualifies as one under the rules of this board or not, and you claim the right to hit back. I don't recognize that right, when the other person called out the content of your post, and you "hit back" with personal aspersions.
5. You need to figure out the difference. Had unJon directed his insult AT YOU, I would suspend him. Instead, he complimented the general quality of your posts (we call that a backward compliment, actually).
I SHOULD suspend you for the insults quoted above. But I think you're making an honest attempt to provide quality content, and I don't particularly like the way people address each other's posts any more than you do. And American brashness and passive-aggressive posting style is off-putting, I agree.
So, I would ask you to do the following:
Look carefully at what is being said. If the characterization is within the content of the argument, it's probably within the rules. If it's directed at YOU (ie moronic dickhead, to quote you), then it's a personal insult.
Please continue to post. You more than hold your own here, and people find you interesting. Don't let it become a game for those you think are pests to push you into suspensions, or even give them another thought.
Any member, you included, is allowed to ask a moderator for action on an offensive post. Copy the link, and PM me. I'm on here several times a day, and we'll look at it, ok? But stop swinging back in that manner - it won't help you. At worst, it will get the both of you suspended.
So, Belgium slang, huh? No wonder I couldn't get anything from it.
Running Total: $0.73
Balance: $34.65
Record: 7-4
No current wager.
and I thank you again for your efforts. All my respect.Quote: beachbumbabs1. You agreed to, and thanked me trying to help you with the tone of this board. My post was in that vein as a follow-up.
OK— I probably am over sensitive there. I expect a contradictor to point to a flaw in my exposé rather than call it garbage without argument. Must be old-fashioned.Quote:2. unJon stayed within the rules (though somewhat rudely, I grant) when he called YOUR POST (NOT you) garbage. That's an important distinction here.
THEN, he paid you a large compliment when he said, "frankly I expected better of you".
Also, the phrase ‘I expected better of you’ sounded more like an offense to my ears (eyes) than a compliment.
If you tell your kid, ‘‘frankly I expected better of you’’ I doubt he/she will take it as a compliment, but rather as a blame. Maybe I shouldn’t, but I resent being treated by an equal as his kid. (And then you calling ME arrogant.)
Ironic compliments are often a disguised insult. Remember Freud writing ‘I commend the Gestapo for its humane treatment of us Jews’ when he got expelled from Austria.
I want to sincerely apologize to anybody who felt insulted. I thought only of comparing social behavior standards, not judging and least of all insulting.Quote:In contrast, you made a disparaging remark about Americans. Not about content, but about the people on this board.
Later on, I pointed to the fact that it was restricted to some people, who seem to make a habit of answering grossly to any poster, on any subject. I think you know who I mean (not unJon, definitely). So it is not THE people on this board, it’s a few particular I labeled dickheads.
Not slang. It used to be the language of the common people, 100 years ago. A mix of Flemish and French. Most of what survived is expressions and words.Quote:So, Belgium slang, huh? No wonder I couldn't get anything from it.
For those into comics, Hergé in his Tintin comic books regularly used such expressions when simulating foreign languages (*). In his posthumous unfinished opus ‘‘The Alph’Art’’ one character is named Endaddine Akass.
As for Pandan Tagl, it comes for another Belgian comics author, Franquin.
« Pan dans ta gueule » meaning « Bang in you face » in a strip about a rifle brand shooting backwards in the face of hunters.
(*)
arumbaya indian: « Fretmo » is « just eat », « eat without worry »
Syldavian: « Eih bennek, eih blavek » is « here I am, here I stay »
Bordurian: « Ceston klebs » is Walloon for « it’s a dog »
Arab: cheikh « Bab El Ehr » is « babbeleir », wordy, chatterbox
Tibetan: « Wei Pyong » is Wépion, a town in Wallonia.
At -275 it moves to 73.5%. Just some thoughts =D.
Quote: RomesFYI, according to Wong, if you pick -250 favorites (on average) then you have to have a winning percentage of 71.5%.
At -275 it moves to 73.5%. Just some thoughts =D.
The general formula is the minus number over 100 more than the number. So 250/(250+100)=0.71429; 275/375=0.73333
Running Total: $0.73
Record: 7-4
Sport: NFL
Game: Oakland @ Indianapolis 9/29/19
Pick: Colts-271
Wager: $0.74
Quote: es330td
Sport: NFL
Game: Oakland @ Indianapolis 9/29/19
Pick: Colts-271
Wager: $0.74
Betting against Chucky? Ooops
LOLQuote: DeMangoBetting against Chucky? Ooops
Both Indy and Baltimore lost at home.
on any given Sunday
(KC and NE almost (they did - but won) choked on the road)
OP shows -$0.01 after all the trouble of betting wild non-dogs
LOL
"one free drink please" (no ice)
Running Total: -.01
Balance: 33.91
Record: 7-5
Sport: MLB
Game: TB @ Houston 10/6/19
Pick: Astros -310
Wager: $1.59
no game like that is scheduled for Oct 6th SundayQuote: es330tdSport: MLB
Game: TB @ Houston 10/6/19
Pick: Astros -310
Wager: $1.59
there is a game scheduled today
results tableQuote: es330tdSport: MLB
Game: TB @ Houston 10/6/19
Pick: Astros -310
Wager: $1.59
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | % bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.59 | $0.58 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.50 |
Running Total: 0.5
Balance: $34.42
Record: 8-5
Sport: MLB
Game: TB @ Houston
Pick: Astros-280
Wager: 0.93
Running Total: $0.83
Balance: $34.75
Record: 9-5
Sport: NBA
Game: Miami@Minnesota 10/27/19
Pick: Timberwolves-256
Wager: $0.44
Running Total: 1.00
Balance: $34.92
Record: 10-5
Sport:NBA
Game: Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Pick: 76ers-270
Wager: $0.92
Running Total: 1.34
Balance: $35.26
Record: 11-5
Sport: NBA
Game: Cleveland @ Indiana 11/1/19
Pick: Indiana -311
Wager: 1.04
Why do you even..Quote: SOOPOOI can't remember.... If you want, can you actually get the $35.26 sent to you?
Oh, NVM.
Quote: SOOPOOI can't remember.... If you want, can you actually get the $35.26 sent to you?
This particular site only allows you to withdraw 50 cents a month
Quote: SOOPOOI can't remember.... If you want, can you actually get the $35.26 sent to you?
Once you get a high enough balance, yes.
Running Balance: $1.68
Balance: $35.6
Sport: NBA
Game: Houston @ Memphis 11/04/19
Pick: Hou -267
Wager: $0.91
Running Total: $2.02
Balance: $35.94
Record: 13-5
Sport: NBA
Game: LA@Chicago 11/05/19
Pick: LA-300
Wager: $1.02
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +$0.34
Running Total: $2.02
Balance: $35.94
Record: 13-5
Sport: NBA
Game: LA@Chicago 11/05/19
Pick: LA-300
Wager: $1.02
Slow and steady rise with the heavy fave's. It's possible you have found value with an underestimation of how much better the good teams are than the bad ones. I think you have good value on this bet. I think the Lakers will end up being the best team in the NBA this year. The Bulls, not so much!
Quote: SOOPOOSlow and steady rise with the heavy fave's. It's possible you have found value with an underestimation of how much better the good teams are than the bad ones. I think you have good value on this bet. I think the Lakers will end up being the best team in the NBA this year. The Bulls, not so much!
It's slow and steady until he hits a streak of 2 upsets in a row. Then it's back to even.
The perils of betting huge favorites.
ZCore13
Quote: SOOPOOSlow and steady rise with the heavy fave's. It's possible you have found value with an underestimation of how much better the good teams are than the bad ones. I think you have good value on this bet. I think the Lakers will end up being the best team in the NBA this year. The Bulls, not so much!
A betting method where you wager on the much better team.. to just win the game.
How did nobody ever think of this before
Quote: michael99000A betting method where you wager on the much better team.. to just win the game.
How did nobody ever think of this before
Of course I don't actually believe he has an edge..... But..... If you read my full short post, I did put in a POSSIBLE explanation for him having an advantage. There are some teams that have NO stars, and others with two or three, and the NBA it is the stars that win or lose games, moreso than NFL, as an example. I think it is POSSIBLE that the money line odds are not in tune with the tremendous disparity of talent levels of the teams.
I have called him out on posting a W/L record, as when betting ML it is totally irrelevant. But he is showing exactly how many pennies he is betting, and how many pennies he is winning or losing. This is a harmless thread.
Quote: SOOPOOOf course I don't actually believe he has an edge.....
I do not have an edge in picking. I am no better at picking winners or losers than the next person. Whether an individual game will win is not why I pick what I do. I know nothing about the players on any team.
Quote: SOOPOO
I have called him out on posting a W/L record, as when betting ML it is totally irrelevant. But he is showing exactly how many pennies he is betting, and how many pennies he is winning or losing. This is a harmless thread.
I will stop posting W-L. I agree it is a harmless thread. As I said at the beginning, the only reason I am doing this is to go on the record publicly to make me be honest with myself. I can’t fudge results if I have declared my picks prior to each game.
Running Total: $2.36
Balance: $36.28
Sport: NBA
Game: Orlando @ Dallas 11/6/19
Pick: Mavericks-298
Wager: $1.08
Quote: SOOPOOThis is a harmless thread.
What would make this not a harmless thread?
Quote: es330tdWhat would make this not a harmless thread?
If you were either trying to scam people/sell picks, or if you were advocating some -ev system that a foolish degen might believe in.
| date | type | game | team 2 win | bet # | wager | total wagered | odds | result | net | total | day start bank | bet of bank | end bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/2019 | MLB | SF @ LAD | Dodgers-260 | 1 | $0.84 | $0.84 | -260 | Loss | ($0.84) | ($0.84) | $33.92 | 2.476% | $33.08 |
| 9/7/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-282 | 2 | $2.82 | $3.66 | -282 | Win | $1.00 | $0.16 | $33.08 | 8.525% | $34.08 |
| 9/8/2019 | MLB | Detroit @ Oakland | Oakland-286 | 3 | $0.46 | $4.12 | -286 | Win | $0.16 | $0.32 | $34.08 | 1.350% | $34.24 |
| 9/9/2019 | NFL | Houston @ New Orleans | NO-289 | 4 | $0.96 | $5.08 | -289 | Win | $0.34 | $0.66 | $34.24 | 2.804% | $34.58 |
| 9/12/2019 | MLB | Oakland @ Houston | Houston - 259 | 5 | $0.89 | $5.97 | -259 | Loss | ($0.89) | ($0.23) | $34.58 | 2.574% | $33.69 |
| 9/15/2019 | MLB | Pirates @ Cubs | Cubs-254 | 6 | $2.09 | $8.06 | -254 | Win | $0.82 | $0.59 | $33.69 | 6.204% | $34.51 |
| 9/16/2019 | MLB | KC @ Oakland | A’s - 277 | 7 | $0.67 | $8.73 | -277 | Loss | ($0.67) | ($0.08) | $34.51 | 1.941% | $33.84 |
| 9/17/2019 | MLB | Texas @ Houston | Astros-297 | 8 | $1.61 | $10.34 | -297 | Win | $0.54 | $0.46 | $33.84 | 4.758% | $34.38 |
| 9/18/2019 | MLB | LA@New York Yankees | Yankees -305 | 9 | $1.10 | $11.44 | -305 | Loss | ($1.10) | ($0.64) | $34.38 | 3.200% | $33.28 |
| 9/19/2019 | MLB | KC @ Minn | Twins-255 | 10 | $2.10 | $13.54 | -255 | Win | $0.82 | $0.18 | $33.28 | 6.310% | $34.10 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Pittsburgh @ SF | SF-295 | 11 | $1.63 | $15.17 | -295 | Win | $0.55 | $0.73 | $34.10 | 4.780% | $34.65 |
| 9/22/2019 | NFL | Oak @ Indy | Colts-271 | 12 | $0.74 | $15.91 | -271 | Loss | ($0.74) | ($0.01) | $34.65 | 2.136% | $33.91 |
| 10/5/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -310 | 13 | $1.59 | $17.50 | -310 | Win | $0.51 | $0.50 | $33.91 | 4.689% | $34.42 |
| 10/10/2019 | MLB | TB @ Houston | Astros -280 | 14 | $0.93 | $18.43 | -280 | Win | $0.33 | $0.83 | $34.42 | 2.702% | $34.75 |
| 10/27/2019 | NBA | Miami@Minnesota | Timberwolves-256 | 15 | $0.44 | $18.87 | -256 | Win | $0.17 | $1.00 | $34.75 | 1.266% | $34.92 |
| 10/30/2019 | NBA | Minnesota @ Philadelphia | 76ers-270 | 16 | $0.92 | $19.79 | -270 | Win | $0.34 | $1.34 | $34.92 | 2.635% | $35.26 |
| 11/1/2019 | NBA | Cleveland @ Indiana | Indiana -311 | 17 | $1.04 | $20.83 | -311 | Win | $0.34 | $1.68 | $35.26 | 2.950% | $35.60 |
| 11/4/2019 | NBA | Houston @ Memphis | Hou -267 | 18 | $0.91 | $21.74 | -267 | Win | $0.34 | $2.02 | $35.60 | 2.556% | $35.94 |
| 11/5/2019 | NBA | LA@Chicago | LA-300 | 19 | $1.02 | $22.76 | -300 | Win | $0.34 | $2.36 | $35.94 | 2.838% | $36.28 |
| 11/6/2019 | NBA | Orlando @ Dallas | Mavericks-298 | 20 | $1.08 | $23.84 | -298 | Win | $0.34 | $2.70 | $36.28 | 2.977% | $36.62 |
Quote: RigondeauxIf you were either trying to scam people/sell picks, or if you were advocating some -ev system that a foolish degen might believe in.
Got it. I said in my other thread that the only person who will ever know what I am doing exactly is Shackleford, and only if he asks.
If he asks can he give his opinion on whether or not he thinks it's a long term winning system?Quote: es330tdGot it. I said in my other thread that the only person who will ever know what I am doing exactly is Shackleford, and only if he asks.
Quote: AxelWolfIf he asks can he give his opinion on whether or not he thinks it's a long term winning system?
He can do whatever he wants. Systems aren’t supposed to work so I am not telling anyone except him what I am doing. As stated previously, I am not trying to tout anything or sell anything. I have devised a methodology that thus far has not blown up so this thread is a public record for my use only. Though highly unlikely, even if someone guesses exactly what I am doing I will not confirm.
Running Balance: $2.72
Balance: $36.64
Sport: NBA
Game: Memphis@Orlando 11/8/19
Pick: Magic-265
Wager: $0.96
So what is a better plan, betting big favorites, winning small amounts and then the occasional big loss or betting long shots, losing lots of small wagers, but hitting an occasional grand slam?
Indeed, loose lips sink ships.Quote: es330tdThough highly unlikely, even if someone guesses exactly what I am doing I will not confirm.
p.s. I never thought you were trying to tout anything or fool anybody. Do your thing.
Quote: AxelWolfIndeed, loose lips sink ships.
p.s. I never thought you were trying to tout anything or fool anybody. Do your thing.
I am neither a statistician nor mathematician. Even if what I am doing works, there is something I could have overlooked. Because of that, I would not feel right sharing what I am doing. I am okay risking my own money but would not feel right someone else risking theirs.
Running Balance: 3.08
Balance: $37.00
Sport: NBA
Game: Houston @ Chicago 11/09/2019
Pick: Houston -281
Wager: $1.02
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +0.36
Running Balance: 3.08
Balance: $37.00
Sport: NBA
Game: Houston @ Chicago 11/09/2019
Pick: Houston -281
Wager: $1.02
I;m sorry, I don't want to read back through the 20 pages but did you say where you were making these bets? I didn't realize casinos would take such small bets.
Quote: DRichI;m sorry, I don't want to read back through the 20 pages but did you say where you were making these bets? I didn't realize casinos would take such small bets.
There is an online sports betting site I use. I’m not sure if I am supposed to put a website in a forum post. It is a specialized site but it does offer actual sports wagers.
So long as you are not advertising the site for profit and not annoying us with spam, then you are welcome to link to the site. I expect that some members would like to know of an online site that takes such small sports bets. So, please do post a linkQuote: es330tdThere is an online sports betting site I use. I’m not sure if I am supposed to put a website in a forum post. It is a specialized site but it does offer actual sports wagers.
Running Total: $3.44
Balance: $37.36
Sport: NBA
Game: Milwaukee @ Oklahoma City 11/10/19
Pick: Bucks-293
Wager: $1.06
Quote: OnceDearSo long as you are not advertising the site for profit and not annoying us with spam, then you are welcome to link to the site. I expect that some members would like to know of an online site that takes such small sports bets. So, please do post a link
The site I use is sportsplays.com. It has a website and an app. Be warned, this is not a normal sportsbetting site like sportsinteraction or Caesar’s Palace. The site is advertising driven so it is free (and therefore legal.) US residents cannot add money to the site. When you join they give you 1.00 in play money. If you lose that they will give you another. When you win a wager your winnings are paid out in real money. When your real money balance reaches $200 you can withdraw the actual funds to your bank account.
I started with the free 1.00 about a year and half ago to test my strategy and today my balance is over $37.
Note that the site will give you extra play money for watching ads or making bets seven days in a row. I would use this additional play money to increase my bet size so not 100% of my growth came from my strategy. This is another reason I wanted to post here. By isolating my strategy bets I could get a more accurate picture of how it is working.
Quote: GWAEI think you are doing this all wrong then. If they will reload you $1 everytime you go bust then you should be more aggressive with your bet sizing.
He’s not trying to AP the website for $1. He’s trying to test some sports betting system.
Quote: GWAEI think you are doing this all wrong then. If they will reload you $1 everytime you go bust then you should be more aggressive with your bet sizing.
They only give you a play money $1.00 if you are broke and lose your real money and play money. My goal is get $200 of real money. I started with the free 1.00 and built from there.
As stated way back at the beginning my methodology includes game selection, bet sizing and bankroll management. All three are required for the success I have thus far.
