Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?

Holy crap! I stumbled across this forum/thread and ended up reading all 55 pages of this thread. I guess I have additional personal interest since around the same time 98steps started posting this I myself was busy running WinCraps simulations. I never thought I came up with a long term winning system but I did at least understand how long I could play with a certain amount of money. I even tried it out and in the end I lost my thousands quicker than I thought possible (at the stratosphere - just like 98steps). After consulting my wincraps logs I discovered my "system" had a 2% chance of failing that bad but 2% was just my luck. I'm not mad...i knew I was taking a considerable risk based on my bank roll thanks to all my hours of research but decided to live a little and take the chance. I'm fully confident I could win the money back if i had 60k to play with....anything less and I would be taking another risk.

MichaelBluejay - It's cool that you decided to overhaul your rules. What made you change that after all these years? Just curious.

Quote: casinogeek

MichaelBluejay - It's cool that you decided to overhaul your rules. What made you change that after all these years? Just curious.

Discussed in detail on page 37.

Dear Wizard. I just spent three hours reading every 56 pages of this popular thread. It was fascinating but is there anyway for you to post a disclaimer/summary at the beginning of the thread that summarizes what happens? I'm a fool for reading the whole thing but maybe you can save some other people a few hours of their time...

Something like:
Guy thinks he has system, almost bets Bluejay but gets cold feet, goes to Vegas to test it anyways with other people's money, loses their money, promises to return and is never heard from again.

Thanks

if its winning... why do you need financing?

Quote: shaferdaniel

Dear Wizard. I just spent three hours reading every 56 pages of this popular thread. It was fascinating but is there anyway for you to post a disclaimer/summary at the beginning of the thread that summarizes what happens?

I'm afraid I don't know what happened. However, I'd lay long odds that the bankroll went bust and 98steps was too embarrassed to come back here and admit it.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

They dissappear after scamming you only to return elsewhere to sell and scam again just like the real estate hucksters you see on late night infomercials.

That's not only an unfair presumption about someone you've never met and know nothing about, it also doesn't match what we've seen here. Best evidence is that 98steps wasn't a scammer, he was just woefully misguided. It's unfortunate that some people insist on assigning a nefarious purpose to everything.

deleted

Quote: 98steps

If a system is proven to be a consistant winner, is there anyone out there that would consider financing its operation?

I think the red flag was not even being able to spell consistent correctly. How can the system be consistent if it isn't even that to begin with. ;)

Epic thread. Just wow.

No one need ever seek financing for a consistently winning craps system.
Simply start playing, if need be at a one dollar craps table.
If its a consistent winner you will soon be at higher limits.

Quote: FleaStiff

No one need ever seek financing for a consistently winning craps system.
Simply start playing, if need be at a one dollar craps table.
If its a consistent winner you will soon be at higher limits.

I'm not sure I agree with that.

My craps system has worked fail-proof for the last 5 years. I've never had a losing session. However, I'm not willing to move up to a higher limit. I enjoy the camaraderie that the lower limit provides. That fact that I am consistently winning money is only secondary to my desire to have a good time.

I will admit, however, that if my goal was to make money, then I would move up to a higher limit. But since my goal is having a good time, the fact that I have a system that makes money 100% of the time is irrelevant.

So what is your winning system, Konceptum?

He doesn't have a "winning system". He has a system that wins 100% of the time when he plays it. I guarantee it wouldn't win 100% of the time if I played it. Just my luck, right?

Quote: AcesAndEights

Epic thread. Just wow.

I have only read through half, and this is the most epic thread I've found so far.

What is your winning system? Sounds like it could be fun to win and have fun with everyone at the table. I am under the impression that winning gamblers must grind out their wins or catch some luck at that particular time. At least, from my experience, I seem to win more when I am alert and focused as oppossed to drunk and just gambing LOL

For obvious reasons, I will not divulge my winning system. When (if?) the casinos change their payouts and betting structure so that the system is no longer a 100% winner, I'll be happy to tell others what it used to be. But until then, I'll keep it to myself and enjoy the money I make while having a good time talking to strangers.

Ok, I've read through the entire thread now. I thoroughly enjoyed the first 11 pages. Laughed heartily through those. I think the math and the challenge being fine tuned were plenty worth the headache that this seemed.....however.....

I have several questions to all those actively involved in this thread:

1. Has anyone met 98steps in real life
2. Did 98steps reveal the actual names of any of his so called "Investors"
3. Of the several visits that 98steps made to Vegas in October of 2010, can anyone vouch for him actually being there?
4. Has 98steps ever sent a picture of himself, with a timestamp, at any of the places to confirm his location


I could easily say: "Hey, I hit X casino, and Y casino, and these were the results, the boys acted X way, I got comped such and such.... Until next time...."

For real guys? After reading this, I'm astonished at the gullibility that the thread created. Notice how I didn't say, the gullibility that anyone one person exhibited.
While reading through, I found myself begging for just one person to say, Hey, 98, let's see a receipt from one of the bars or restaurants, or comps, on the above listed day and times. Not even once.

While I'm sure his "system" was interesting to test. I cast high suspicions on whether he made trips to Vegas during the time frames noted. Maybe he did go. Maybe he did play and win/lose those specific amounts. What I can't buy, without hard proof, is these "Investors". Sorry. Don't buy it. I won't even Buy that odd with no vig on a win (refer to question 2 above).

Anyways, great thread, great site. Love the energy here. Cheers.

YoDR11

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Ok, I've read through the entire thread now. I thoroughly enjoyed the first 11 pages. Laughed heartily through those. I think the math and the challenge being fine tuned were plenty worth the headache that this seemed.....however.....

I have several questions to all those actively involved in this thread:

1. Has anyone met 98steps in real life
2. Did 98steps reveal the actual names of any of his so called "Investors"
3. Of the several visits that 98steps made to Vegas in October of 2010, can anyone vouch for him actually being there?
4. Has 98steps ever sent a picture of himself, with a timestamp, at any of the places to confirm his location


I could easily say: "Hey, I hit X casino, and Y casino, and these were the results, the boys acted X way, I got comped such and such.... Until next time...."

For real guys? After reading this, I'm astonished at the gullibility that the thread created. Notice how I didn't say, the gullibility that anyone one person exhibited.
While reading through, I found myself begging for just one person to say, Hey, 98, let's see a receipt from one of the bars or restaurants, or comps, on the above listed day and times. Not even once.

While I'm sure his "system" was interesting to test. I cast high suspicions on whether he made trips to Vegas during the time frames noted. Maybe he did go. Maybe he did play and win/lose those specific amounts. What I can't buy, without hard proof, is these "Investors". Sorry. Don't buy it. I won't even Buy that odd with no vig on a win (refer to question 2 above).

Anyways, great thread, great site. Love the energy here. Cheers.

YoDR11

What would be the point of lying and then showing a net loss at the end of his trip? If I were spinning a tall tale just for the hell of it, I would make myself a winner.

Over 1 short trip, his system behaved exactly as one would expect it too over the long haul: a bunch of small wins and a giant loss that wiped them all out, and more. To me, that's what makes it the most realistic.

If the run-of-the-mill system peddler can find dozens of suckers to buy their $29.99 "guaranteed craps system," I don't doubt there are a few math/statistics ignorant people out there with a couple thousand to blow. Especially since if you massage the data the right way, it looks like you can be profitable in the short term.

Quote: AcesAndEights

What would be the point of lying and then showing a net loss at the end of his trip? If I were spinning a tall tale just for the hell of it, I would make myself a winner.

I dunno, why do people do weird things. I don't have the answer for that. I'm sorry, the burden of proof is on the person making the claims.

Quote:

Over 1 short trip, his system behaved exactly as one would expect it too over the long haul: a bunch of small wins and a giant loss that wiped them all out, and more. To me, that's what makes it the most realistic.

I agree.

Quote:

If the run-of-the-mill system peddler can find dozens of suckers to buy their $29.99 "guaranteed craps system," I don't doubt there are a few math/statistics ignorant people out there with a couple thousand to blow. Especially since if you massage the data the right way, it looks like you can be profitable in the short term.

I agree that it's possible.

I just don't believe people on the internet all the time. I would be asking more questions of these "investors" through PM. And would want to meet this person FTF for actual accountability. Just an observation, that's all.

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

I agree that it's possible.

I just don't believe people on the internet all the time. I would be asking more questions of these "investors" through PM. And would want to meet this person FTF for actual accountability. Just an observation, that's all.

Yep I totally understand doubting people on the internet. In this case I believe that he is a real person and the events really happened, based on the sum total of evidence in this thread. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Quote: AcesAndEights

But I wouldn't bet on it.

My point exactly.

I dont think this is the right place to post this but I am going to reply anyways. I have my bachelors degree in statistics from emporia state university. I very recently brought stanford wongs casino tournament strategy book. Because I was trying to think if the math for it was right for what I was thinking as far as a blackjack method that did not involve counting but consistently beat the house. I also bought blackjack software and tested it for 2,000,000,789 hands. My results for this came up stunning I developed what I thought is a a variation of deep stack level progression non going broke betting strategy based on the laws of probability over time. This produces a positive gain for the player and let me explain how it works by explaining what it is not.
We know the math behind martingale doesnt work because you eventually go broke and you are betting to get one unit. What if you took a betting progression strategy and gave yourself aq bankroll of 200 times that betting progression and never went beyond that level you would then becoming up with something that beats the math behind most games because you never progress beyond that barrier of that which you have 200 times the total amount of the progresssion.
In even money games like blackjack the odds of winning one hand without doubling and splittling is close to 48% the odds of winning one out of two hands in blackjack without doubling or splittling is 73% and the odds of winning one out of three hands without doing the same is 86%. So here are the progressions I ran in my computer giving each player 200 X the total amount of each progression to see if we could yield a positive gain running each trial a minimum of 2,000,000,789 hands to account for the proper adjustments, I did 6 progression levels of each 200 deep for the total amount of progression so the players would not go broke if they lost one progression each player resorts back to the minimum bet after winning one progression bet

For the 1x then 5 X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth of 12.7% percent over the long term
For the 1X 3X 15X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 11.3% over the long term in simulation
For the 1X 2X 6X 18X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 10.4% over the long term
For the 1x2X 6x 18X 72X progression 200 deep my profit resutls yielded a constant growth rate 9.6% over the long term
For the 1x 2x 6X 18x 54X 216X progression 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 8.7%
For the 1x 2x 6x 18x 54x 162X 1000X 200 deep my profit results yielded a constant growth rate of 6.5%

These trial progressions were ran 2,000,000,789 hands for each progression again the only reason this worked was because each player was sitting 200 deep of the total progression that way if a progression lost the player did not go broke. Cost is broken down as the following this is assuming a 5 dollar min wager

Bankroll for player A 5 + 25 = 30 * 200 = 6000 dollars
Bankroll for player b 5 + 15 + 75 * 200 = 19000 dollars
Bankroll for player c 5 + 10+ 30 + 90 * 200 = 27000 dollars
Bankroll for Player d 5 + 10 + 30 + 90 + 360 * 200 = 99000 dollars
Bankroll for Player e 5 + 10 + 30 + 90 + 270 + 1080 * 200 297000 dollars
Bankroll for Player F 5 = 10 + 30 + 90 + 270 + 810 + 5000 * 200 1,245,000 dollars

The whole premise behind this is to make sure you have 200 X of the total progression. Then the math does it self. Without the 200 X the strategy is no different then a glamoured up martingale. Without the 200 x the math says that this strategy will fail eventually. I would like someone else to do the math for me on this as well because maybe I have overlooked something, or maybe 2,000,000,789 is not enough hands. Yes that is right over 2 billion hands. Anyways get back to me on this please thank u

Jeremy Noble

Post this in a new thread, because it has absolutely nothing to do with the "Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity" thread you posted it to.

Admins are probably are going to want to block this new user, who just posted the same trash 12 times in half an hour across the board.

Actually it does I think there is a universal betting strategy for all the table games. I was just curious what the odds would be of losing 12 dont pass bets back to back

The reason dice table personnel (box person / stick person) want you to hit the back wall waffle pattern is to level the game ???

Whether true or not is not relevant, however, what many of you may not have given much thought to, is the person tossing the dice is no less generating random numbers (like your computer and casino slot machines) ... Yeah! Believe it or not, the person is a walking, talking, RNG mortal ...

But, to the point of Mr. Soopoo >>> you are, sir, talking through your hat ---

Craps is not a statistical or mathematical game !!! It is physical and you attack the game physically !!!

How ??? Using your brains, which most dice players have, but, fail to use !!!

The simple truth is players do not lose at craps because they are stupid --- they lose because of habits of which I won't waste my time explaining ...

As a retired dice dealer, Majestic Star Casino, Buffington Harbor, Gary, Indiana (USA) I know what good strategies can accomplish --- Hell, I've been doing it for 17 years; had my 76th birthday going into my 18th year !!!

I dare say, Mr. Soopoo, do not snub your nose about a subject which you may not have thoroughly accomplished your due-diligence ???

Tally Ho Pardners;
DiceTrakkr

To believe odds behind the pass line is the best house wager tells me you have been brain-washed by a family member, friend or other person who in turn was also indoctrinated to craps by a family member, friend or other with less craps knowledge ...

Anytime you lock yourself into a contract and must wait for the final decision is akin to sucker bets !!!

Likewise, "come" bets are no friend to pass side players ...

Lordy, Lordy, how people have been lead down the "pea-path" by expert casino marketers !!!

Tally Ho Pardners

You seem to be building toward making exaggerated claims with nothing to back them up.
Or do you have a guaranteed system you are trying to peddle?
Let's have it!

Quote: DiceTrakkr

To believe odds behind the pass line is the best house wager tells me you have been brain-washed by a family member, friend or other person who in turn was also indoctrinated to craps by a family member, friend or other with less craps knowledge ...

Anytime you lock yourself into a contract and must wait for the final decision is akin to sucker bets !!!

Likewise, "come" bets are no friend to pass side players ...

Lordy, Lordy, how people have been lead down the "pea-path" by expert casino marketers !!!

Tally Ho Pardners

The $5 is contract, the odds can be added/taken from at free will.

Also, the wager is BlackJack is a contract bet. It must be a sucker bet...

The odds bet is the best bet at the craps table...it may not be the best bet in the house, however...

DiceTrakkr,

If the odds bet isn't the bst bet on the table. What is???

You can just smell the John Patrick voodoo coming, in this case place bets. Wait for it.....

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

DiceTrakkr,

If the odds bet isn't the bst bet on the table. What is???

I HATE HATE HATE when people say the odds bet is the best bet on the table. The best bet on the table is the bet that is most likely to win. The odds bet might have no house advantage but is is not the most likely to win when the point is 4 or 10.

The best bet on the table is the bet most likely to win.

So odds on the don't is the best bet by probability, pass odds on six or eight would be next best.
Name another bet in the casino that has no edge and can be revoked at will.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I HATE HATE HATE when people say the odds bet is the best bet on the table. The best bet on the table is the bet that is most likely to win. The odds bet might have no house advantage but is is not the most likely to win when the point is 4 or 10.

The best bet on the table is the bet most likely to win.

You can't really believe this?
Simple example----
A. I'll give you 1000-1 odds on one roll of the dice for you to roll a seven.
B. I'll give you even money on one roll for black on roulette.

A is a better bet, by far, but B is more likely to win.

Read the Wizard's slogan at the bottom of his posts.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I HATE HATE HATE when people say the odds bet is the best bet on the table. The best bet on the table is the bet that is most likely to win. The odds bet might have no house advantage but is is not the most likely to win when the point is 4 or 10.

The best bet on the table is the bet most likely to win.

So the best bet would be making a Don't Pass after the point has been established...let me try that one next time I'm at the table.

Quote: Triplell

you tested it on 20 sessions? Oh yes, o great one. If it worked 19/20 sessions, it must be full proof...

lol. well if you one 19 sessions in a row at $800, that's a $15,000 profit and if you just loss the once for $4500 that makes your total gain $12,000 so it certainly wouldn't hurt to continue with that strategy for at least a little longer.

I'm interested in your request, please contact me at: americancompany@cox.net

Quote: AlanMendelson

The best bet on the table is the bet that is most likely to win.

You should put that statement in your tagline.

the funny thing about all of this is some people will just never learn. I have a dear friend that used to own a major sports book so you would think that he new all about numbers. We are in a contest at a casino each week which is an absolute lock to win each week by basivally playing tables for thee hours each week. I explain to him that our expected loss each week is roughly 2 percent of our overall wager and in the end the ap is the money won in the contest but each week he feels we can win more by increasing out bets during the three hours and going on a streak- i have had literal fist fights with him trying to explain this concept but he just will never get it

A Place Bet is your best opportunity if you understand table events because your money can be moved, shut off or taken down ...
Place Bets win more money than a Pass Line w/Odds wager if you understand the difference ???
Point #5 or #9 Example: $5 Pass Line and $10 odds (wins $20) VERSUS $15 Place Bet (wins $21) and it's not a contract wager !!!
If you fail to grasp difference, "Shame on You!"
Good gamblers don't play to get lucky, understand and are willing to switch sides when necessary ...
Too many gamblers learn from non-certified persons: family member, friend or stranger ...
Unfortunately Newbies learn "less than intelligent" myths (decisions about dice flying off the table, new stick person, etc.) ...
Casino executives understand human greed; therefore, they provide sucker bets (Fire Bet, All or Nothing) to deplete your bankroll ...
A Fire Bet or All or Nothing is an unreliable happening -- the money you lose is akin to losing the farm ???
Tally Ho Pardners ...

Who you callin' a ho?

Quote: DiceTrakkr

Too many gamblers learn from non-certified persons: family member, friend or stranger ...

Two questions for you.

1. Are you a certified person?

2. How can I become one of these certified persons?

Quote: DiceTrakkr

$5 Pass Line and $10 odds (wins $20) VERSUS $15 Place Bet (wins $21) and it's not a contract wager !!!

Now, I don't mind somebody advocating Place bets, but ... Touting how much you win one way versus another way is almost a sure sign of a Canard.

Unfortunately this sort of instinctive way of doing the math gives erroneous results most of the time. The simplest, quickest way of deconstructing the error is to look at the undefeatable EV of the bets.

EV of $10 line bet plus any amount of free odds: -14 cents

EV of $15 place bet: -60 cents for the example given

Quote: FatGeezus

Quote: DiceTrakkr

Too many gamblers learn from non-certified persons: family member, friend or stranger ...

Two questions for you.

1. Are you a certified person?

2. How can I become one of these certified persons?

Certification is only available from JOHN PATRICK !

You have to take a test. "How many edges does a single die have?"- is one of the questions.

On the Master's test you must prove you know how to chart a table.

I was just thinking about this thread the other day. Ohh what a fun train wreck it was to watch we need a new one to follow.

Quote: kmumf

I was just thinking about this thread the other day. Ohh what a fun train wreck it was to watch we need a new one to follow.

apparently you missed the varmenti saga and the JJ saga.

I know I'm probably kicking a dead bucket of tofu here, but...

98steps bailed because, he said, his system could win over "a lifetime" but not over the old test rules of 1 billion rounds. Well, years ago I overhauled the rules of the Betting System Challenge and now each test runs for only 200,000 rounds. (You win the challenge by winning 11 out of 20 of these tests.) Here are the updated rules. So, is that enough to entice 98steps to give it another shot?

I PM'd 98steps to let him know, but of course, I gave him the same advice I gave last time, which is that he should have his system programmed and tested first to prove to himself that it doesn't work before he wagers money that it does.

Quote: mkl654321

If we could somehow hunt down and sterilize all people who believe in the irrational, then we could possibly improve the collective human intellect.

Quote: Wizard

That is taking it bit far, don't you think? Maybe it would sound better in the original German.

^^^ funniest thing I've ever heard the Wizard say!