ChumpChange's Blog

Gambling With an Edge - blackjack player, "It's not a Fluke."

Gambling With an Edge - blackjack player, "It's not a Fluke." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk9RYphCp-Q

Our guest this week uses the handle, "It's Not a Fluke." He is an advantage player that has also worked as a dealer, a supervisor, and in surveillance.

We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter.

Show Notes

[00:00] Introduction of ItsNotAFluke, a current AP who previously worked in surveillance
[00:37] Fluke's early casino career and experience in dealer training
[07:19] Sycuan and the Tran Organization
[15:25] High stakes shuffle trackers
[19:44] Employee theft, day to day operations and monitoring AP
[27:13] Reno pit boss experience with a card counter
[34:55] South Point Casino June Promotion: Half Price Gas and Goods
[35:38] VideoPoker.com: Gold membership offers correction on most games
[36:31] Working during a grand opening of a casino in northern California
[39:47] Fluke gets fired after a bet capping incident
[44:08] Fluke's transition into AP
[49:05] How does Fluke's wife handle his AP life?

SouthPointCasino.com
VideoPoker.com

Gambling With an Edge is a weekly radio show dedicated to making you a better gambler tomorrow than you were yesterday. The hosts, Bob Dancer, and Richard Munchkin are both authors and professional gamblers. You can learn more about them at gamblingwithanedge.com

All, Tall, Small Winners - Live Craps game

All wins: $1 on each bet pays 210 to 1; $5 on each pays $1050.

Live Craps Game #30 - AWESOME 30+ ROLLS! - The Cosmopolitan, Las Vegas, NV - Inside the Casino - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cCdxKnP0zc


https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/
Small and Tall

The Small bet wins if the shooter rolls every total from 2 to 6 before a 7. The Tall bet requires the shooter to roll every total from 8 to 12 before a 7. Both have a probability of winning of 0.026354, or about 1 in 38. There are two known payoffs, as follows:

If wins pay 34 to 1 (or 35 for 1), then the house edge is 7.76%.
If wins pay 30 to 1 (or 31 for 1), then the house edge is 18.30%.

All
The All bet wins if the shooter rolls every total except a 7 before a 7. It is always offered along with the Small and Tall bets explained above. The probability of winning of 0.005258, or about 1 in 190. There are two known payoffs, as follows:

If wins pay 175 to 1 (or 176 for 1), then the house edge is 7.47%.
If wins pay 150 to 1 (or 151 for 1), then the house edge is 20.61%.

MS Stud - 4 of a Kind to $50K

I was just playing Mississippi Stud for the first time last night on the web and had only 2 good hands: a Full House, and a 4 of a Kind. If I expect my high hand to be 4 of a Kind with no Straight Flushes or Royal Flushes anywhere in sight, I came up with this betting table under the assumption that there will be a $50,000 Maximum Aggregate Payout (so I want to hit those more often than a Royal Flush!)
If I win a Full House that could get me to the next betting level above a certain balance, and so could a few smaller wins in a row. I'd reduce my Ante bet if I fell below the balance listed, or raise it if I went above the balance listed. I went through 3 Full House levels down just waiting for one, so that's why I start with 4 at $2,000.

I'll have to have a CTR filled out on cash-outs of $10,000+, not sure if they'd fill one out at the table while I continue to play for more. W-2G's only apply to Royal Flushes. Some Straight Flushes you never bet on because they were weak cards to begin with, but a max bet of $500 x 100 will pay $50,000 on a Straight Flush. A max bet of $100 will get $50,000 on a Royal Flush, unless there's a different pay table involved, like 800 to 1, instead of 500 to 1.

If playing the web version of the game where I can start out with $50,000, just multiply all values in the table by ten.

Here in Nevada, an aggregate payout rule must be in plain view, and it cannot apply to wins less than 50 to 1 (Nevada Revised Statute 5.190)
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/let-it-ride/

Playing Mississippi Stud in Las Vegas 2018 https://www.onlineunitedstatescasinos.com/las-vegas/games/mississippi-stud/
Table limits at Bally's are $5 to $200 while at The Venetian it's $10 to $2000; but I'm more likely to see Golden Nugget at $5 to $50 limits outside of Vegas, with an up to $50K Straight Flush payout. It's unclear whether The Venetian would pay up to $10 million on a Royal Flush at maximum bets, or if they'd say you can only win $100K on the Royal, but you can win up to $800K on a 4 of a Kind.

Balance	Ante Bet	Max Bet	Full House win	4 of a Kind win
$2,000	$5	$50	$500	$2,000
$2,500	$10	$100	$1,000	$4,000
$3,500	$15	$150	$1,500	$6,000
$5,000	$20	$200	$2,000	$8,000
$7,000	$25	$250	$2,500	$10,000
$9,500	$30	$300	$3,000	$12,000
$12,500	$40	$400	$4,000	$16,000
$16,500	$60	$600	$6,000	$24,000
$22,500	$80	$800	$8,000	$32,000
$28,500	$100	$1,000	$10,000	$40,000
$38,500	$125	$1,250	$12,500	$50,000
$50,000				OVER THE TOP

$1 Million Progressive on Table Games

Just playing a little Mississippi Stud on the website and thinking if I bet $25 x 10 and win a Royal at 500:1, I'd be up $125,000. But then I read this about a new million dollar progressive jackpot for $5.
$1.1 million win at The Venetian Las Vegas

PAYOUT CHANGES TO MISSISSIPPI STUD - Payout limited to $50,000 - April 2018 https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/30701-payout-changes-to-mississippi-stud/

AN 'OPENLY ADVERTISED,' SCAM (Maximum Aggregate Payout) - Posted by Mission146 - Oct 10, 2015 https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/Casino-MAPs/

2 or 3 session BJ parlay

I could buy-in at a $15 table for $500 and have 25 hands to lose and if I win 35 hands ahead, I could have $5,000+, with a 1 to 20 progression spread that increases every 5 hands ahead. I could come back the next time and buy-in at a $3000 max bet table with $5000 for 25 hands and if I win 35 hands ahead, I'd total $50,000+. If I could find a $30,000 max bet table, I could turn $50,000 into $500,000 on a 3rd trip. I'd likely only find a $10,000 max bet table so I'd turn $15K into $150K. After 3 winning sessions getting me to $150K, I could divvy that up into 300 x $500 sessions for 7500 hands of Blackjack after winning 55-105 hands to begin with.

Since I'm likely stuck with a $3000 table max in my area, I'd just win 2 sessions to get me to $50K then divvy that up into 100 x $500 sessions for 2500 hands of Blackjack and keep playing the $15 table until I win a session I can parlay in the high limit room.

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(1) The Player - Secrets Of A Vegas Whale Don Johnson - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=pUVibB3Hovo
DON JOHNSON - BLACKJACK STRATEGY https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/32995-don-johnson-blackjack-strategy/

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https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/136/
Hands per Hour in Blackjack
Players___________Hands per hour
1___________________209
2___________________139
3___________________105
4____________________84
5____________________70
6____________________60
7____________________52

So if I play at a full table for 2 hours I can expect normal swings of -10 to +10 over 100 hands.
If I play alone at the high limit table, I can expect swings of -35 to +35 over 1225 hands in 6 hours.