ChumpChange's Blog
Posted by ChumpChange
Apr 06, 2019
Apr 06, 2019
Buy-In Balance with Odds
Buy-In Balance with OddsThis is for people betting in multiples of $5 who have 2 sets of chips in their rails, one for the PL (15 bets to start) and one for the odds bets (15 bets to start). I'd have 4 sets in my wallet because it probably is possible to lose 60 bets in 6 hours. I've skewed this table because of table minimums. I'm finding I need to prioritize getting to a higher table minimum over putting odds on bets at a lower minimum bet. If I could find $5 tables at any time, just divide the $50 table by 10, or by 5 if on $10 tables.
| 4 Sets | Balance | PL | Odds | Table |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 | $75 | $5 | $0 | $5 |
| $600 | $150 | $10 | $0 | $10 |
| $900 | $225 | $15 | $0 | $15 |
| $1200 | $300 | $20 | $0 | $15 |
| $1500 | $375 | $25 | $0 | $25 |
| $2400 | $600 | $25 | $15 | $25 |
| $3600 | $900 | $30 | $30 | $25 |
| $4800 | $1200 | $40 | $40 | $25 |
| $6000 | $1500 | $50 | $50 | $50 |
| $7500 | $1875 | $50 | $75 | $50 |
| $9000 | $2250 | $50 | $100 | $50 |
| $12000 | $3000 | $50 | $150 | $50 |
| $15000 | $3750 | $50 | $200 | $50 |
| $18000 | $4500 | $50 | $250 | $50 |
| $24000 | $6000 | $50 | $350 | $50 |
| $30000 | $7500 | $50 | $450 | $50 |
Posted by ChumpChange
Apr 03, 2019
Apr 03, 2019
SLICES ON TAXES ON POKER, COMPS, CC REWARD POINTS, Bitcoins
U.S. Income Taxes re:Poker - 03-20-2010https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/57/poker-legislation-amp-ppa-discussion-hosted-rich-muny/u-s-income-taxes-re-poker-740589/
Are comps taxable - 10-16-2007
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/57/poker-legislation-amp-ppa-discussion-hosted-rich-muny/comps-taxable-36513/
Are reward points taxable or not? Yes. - January 17, 2017
https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/rewards-points-bonus-taxable.php
Where spending is required before points are awarded, the bonus then becomes a nontaxable rebate.
I am a tax attorney, here are my answers to the most common questions about the taxation of bitcoins - Last Edit: June 2017
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1uccfz/i_am_a_tax_attorney_here_are_my_answers_to_the/?utm_content=buffer3ecdc&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer
ZenLedger Overview - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAI_w7CpP28
********************************************************************************************************
My post from page 33 of the Bitcoin thread where AxelWolf on page 32 asked if anyone else had to submit their bank login information to the Bitcoin exchange when setting up an account.
Zcore13 adds: Why should they get your login and password? PayPal transfers money back and forth to my bank accounts and credit cards. They don't need my bank password. My work pays me direct deposit. They don't need my password. The only reason they would need that is to download balance or transaction history. Bad news.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/13594-bitcoin/33/
CryptoCasey says they need your bank login information if you're using a bank to connect to your bitcoin. You could wire money, but then they'd want even more information. Better to use a credit card to fund your bitcoin. None of this is simple unless you are on the far end of the learning curve.
I don't trust PayPal and I'm glad e-bay let me buy something with a credit card recently. (Maybe it was the first week they allowed that?)
I'm bitcoin illiterate and I'm waking up far too late to this party.
Cryptocurrency Wallets for Beginners (Ultimate Step-by-Step Ledger & Trezor Guide) - YouTube Jan 6, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GDYrrAcKzY
How to Buy Altcoins for Beginners (Ultimate Step-by-Step Guide) Pt 2 - YouTube Feb 6, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AO7iSGjLZM
Using Trust Wallet to Store Ethereum and ERC 20 tokens - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YV6OD96svE
***
MyEtherWallet Review 2018 | Read This Before You Use It! https://www.abitgreedy.com/myetherwallet/
Ledger Nano S Hardware Wallet Review 2018 + List of Supported Coins https://www.abitgreedy.com/ledger-nano-s/
How to Set Up the Ledger Nano S - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-gEp6iCXfc
Bitcoin: Buying from a Bitcoin ATM Machine using cash. https://youtu.be/OwAe42aYEQ4
The First Bitcoin ATM in Maryland??? We purchased some Bitcoin! - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBOfa92pz5A
Looks like a 12% difference in price from what you buy bitcoin at and what the price is when you try to get your money back at that ATM. Kind of like those machines that take your loose change and keep 12% of it before they give you the receipt to take to the register.
How To Cash In $1000 In BitCoin For Less Than Average ATM Fee - Sep 13, 2017 https://youtu.be/mqj63bWbd_U
Bitpay Phases Out Crypto-Debit Cards for European Cardholders - Bitcoin News https://news.bitcoin.com/bitpay-phases-out-crypto-debit-cards-for-european-cardholders/
Shift Card Sunsets, Leaving US Crypto Card Users With Few Options - Bitcoin News https://news.bitcoin.com/shift-card-sunsets-leaving-us-crypto-card-users-with-few-options/
Changes to BitPay Card cash withdrawals and advances as of March 8, 2019 – BitPay Support https://support.bitpay.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024353032-Changes-to-BitPay-Card-cash-withdrawals-and-advances-as-of-March-8-2019
5 Ways to Buy Bitcoin with Credit Card or Debit Instantly (2019) https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/credit-debit-card/
Posted by ChumpChange
Mar 20, 2019
Mar 20, 2019
Win 1 set, Lose 2 Sets
If I roll for 500 PL bets, the square root of that is +/-22 bets, subtract 7 bets for HA, so I can expect to win up to 15 bets or lose up to 29 bets.I should check my daily strategy to Buy-In for 2 sessions of 15 bets each, and be able to make all that back from the last bet.
Posted by ChumpChange
Mar 14, 2019
Mar 14, 2019
Lay the 6 or 8 during come-out and 2 rolls after.
Since I'm seeing nothing but Point 7-outs and PP7-outs at the tables, I thought about what would cover that. Really, 6 times out of 8 I fit that scenerio myself as a shooter last time I was at the table. I'm betting on hopping 7's on the come-out but not hitting them, but should I be betting them after the come-out? I know laying the 6 or 8 is a 4% HA (2.27% if vig paid on wins only), but I've gotta find a less expensive bet.So I tried it on WinCraps and very shortly found I won 9 Lay 6's in a row. What luck? It's just WinCraps learning my new strategy because it machine learns how I bet and takes me down so, so hard a little later, despite what the programmers say. I have fearful bad luck with WinCraps, and at the tables too.
So I figured out some progressions to use. On a win, I should just take my bet down and rebet with the new amount, and add the vig since my local tables require a vig for all bets, not just on winners. I'll get paid in reds & greens, I only have to supply the whites.
WinCraps, however, saw my new play, and started hitting my 6 the roll after I turned off my lay 6 quite a lot, and started hitting my lay 6 on the come-out rolls, and also started hitting my 6 like 8 times in a row whether my bet was on or off. Ice cold table turns into a bonanza for place bettors all of a sudden! So I was easily down 10 units quite quickly, and had to make it up by using the progression on streaks of wins. I do lose a bit on streaks of wins of less than 4 in a row compared to flat betting. If I go more than 10 wins in a row, I'll keep with my 5X base bet max bet.
According to the chart, I'm moving up a betting level for approximately every 5 flat bet wins I'm ahead (when I finish my progressions). So I could win $400 at the start, be at $650, and start betting $72 on a progression. If I win 10 times in a row with that for $1200, I'll be at $1850. Then I bet $180, if I win 10 times in a row with that, I'll be up another $3300 and be at over $5000! It would take 3 quick hits of winning 10 in a row to put me OVER THE TOP! I'd have to figure out what that number was and divide by $250 to see how many sets that results in. Considering how fast I can fall at this, I'd better plan on a several hundred minimum bets bankroll after I win big, or even before. I'd lower my bets on the chart if I fell through balance floors for that betting level. If I win enough, I could just double my chart and use $500 sets.
| Bet | Vig | Pays | Balance | Progression |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | $1 | $20 | $250 | $24, $30, $36, $42, $48, $60, $72, $90, $120, $120 |
| $48 | $2 | $40 | $350 | $48, $60, $72, $84, $96, $120, $150, $180, $240, $240 |
| $72 | $3 | $60 | $550 | $72, $90, $108, $126, $144, $180, $216, $270, $360, $360 |
| $96 | $4 | $80 | $850 | $96, $120, $144, $168, $192, $240, $288, $360, $480, $480 |
| $120 | $5 | $100 | $1250 | $120, $150, $180, $210, $240, $300, $360, $450, $600, $600 |
| $180 | $7 | $150 | $1750 | $180, $240, $300, $360, $420, $510, $600, $750, $900, $900 |
| $2500 | OVER THE TOP! |
Comments
Ahigh
Mar 14, 2019
"Since I'm seeing nothing but Point 7-outs and PP7-outs at the tables"
I stopped reading after that. Great post!
FleaStiff
Mar 28, 2019
'...laying the six or eight is a 4 % House Advantage...'
I thought it was o.8 % if done for one roll? ??
Posted by ChumpChange
Mar 06, 2019
Mar 06, 2019
21+3 BJ, Match The Dealer BJ vs Spanish 21
Shuffle-up mid-shoe. What?Beating the 21 + 3 Blackjack Side Bet: Some Really Cool Graphs https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-bets/beating-the-21-3-blackjack-side-bet-some-really-cool-graphs
There's 21+3 Extreme in my area.
Perfect Play against the 21+3 Extreme Blackjack Side Bet https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-bets/perfect-play-against-the-213-extreme-blackjack-side-bet
In particular the house edge for 21+3 is 3.24%, whereas the house edge for 21+3E is 13.39%.
There's also Match The Dealer BJ that has higher payouts & a higher house advantage than Match The Dealer in Spanish 21 in my area.
The following table shows Wizard's analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 14 to 1. - Blackjack ~3.67% HA
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/match-the-dealer/
The following table shows Wizard's analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 12 to 1. - Spanish 21 ~3.0% HA
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/match-the-dealer/
Comments
What's special about the last bet? Does it wear a yellow t-shirt saying ' Don't worry: this one will be a winner'
WinCraps thinks so, today anyway.
In between hot shooters killing my rail money I managed to win 9 Don't Pass Odds Bets in a row, 10 Don't Pass Odds Bets in a row, and 7 Don't Pass Odds Bets in a row. So WinCraps wasted a lot of my time going nowhere, then took me down to my last bet of my $4800 buy-in, and I won it back with $120 on the DP and $360 Don't Odds on an odds progressive of $360, $360, $360, $480, $600, $720, $720 until a loss. I can't really run a progressive on the Don't Pass bet itself because it gets mauled on the come-out rolls.
When I got to $7200, I raised my bets to $180 DP and $540 odds with an odds progression of $540, $540, $540, $720, $900, $1080, $1080 until a loss. WinCraps kept bringing me down with hot shooters when I raised my bets. They'd get 4 points, like 3 shooters in a row it seemed. So I'd have to crawl back to my raise balance several times. One time it put me on a win streak instead and I got to my next raise point of $10,800 where I doubled my original bet sequence. When I got to $15,600, I'd double my 2nd bet sequence. I'd just multiply my total DP & Odds bet before the progression by 5 to determine my next raise mark.
I'm going to try to limit my daily wins at the casino to 10-15 bets and come back another day.
Narrator: Who said he would see ANY upside, period!?
Edit: I'm going to play DP with odds until I get 2 losses on one shooter then turn it around and play PL progressive with static odds so I don't lose more than 3 odds bets per shooter. I'm up over 20 bets in 525 rolls with this strategy, this time.