ChumpChange's Blog

Parlay the HH11 a few times

Horn High 11 Bet
If I'm trying to parlay my wins on the HH11 and I keep rolling 3's which pay 15 to 1,
a $5 HH11 bet would pay $15,
a $15 HH11 bet would pay $45,
a $45 HH11 bet would pay $135,
a $135 HH11 bet would pay $405,
a $405 HH11 bet would pay $1215,
a $1,000 HH11 (table max) bet would pay $3,000.
So 6 3's in a row pays the table max.

If I'm trying to parlay my wins on the HH11 and I keep rolling 11's which pay 15 to 1,
a $5 HH11 bet would pay $30,
a $30 HH11 bet would pay $180,
a $180 HH11 bet would pay $1080,
a $1,000 HH11 (table max) bet would pay $6,000.
So 4 yo's in a row pays table max.
If I win on the 30 to 1 bets, they count as yo's for half the bet and pay the same amount.
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If I'm trying to parlay my wins on the HH11 and I keep rolling 11's which pay 15 to 1,
a $5 HH11 bet would pay $30,
a $30 HH11 bet would pay $180,
a $180 HH11 bet would pay $1080,
a $500 HH11 (table max) bet would pay $3,000.
Each win after would pay $1000 (for an Ace-Deuce) / $2,500 after rebets.
I'm collecting $580 on the 3rd win.
If I hit max pay tables that are multiples of $3K, I'd roughly multiply the values in this chart by that amount.
If I win on the 30 to 1 bets, they count as yo's for half the bet and pay the same amount.
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https://www.parlaynation.com/horn-high
What Does the Horn High Pay on a Craps Game?
The Horn High’s are some of the most confusing bets to pay on a Craps table. There are only four payments you need to know in order to pay all the bets but it’s knowing when to apply each of those four numbers that makes paying them so difficult. You need to understand a few things before you’ll be able to figure out the payments of the Horn Highs right off the bat.

Directly - the Horn High that you bet is the number that rolled. For example, you bet the Horn High Twelve and the Twelve rolled or you bet the Horn High Ace Deuce and the Ace Deuce roll. That is a direct hit.

Indirectly - one of the other numbers rolled. For example, you bet the Horn High Aces and the Twelve rolled or you bet the Horn High Yo and the Aces roll. Those are indirect hits.

High Side - The Horn High Aces and the Horn High Twelve pay the exact same when they hit directly or indirectly because both the Aces and the Twelve pay 30 to 1. They are both considered the high side.

Low Side - The Horn High Ace Deuce and the Horn High Yo pay the exact same when they hit directly or indirectly because both the Ace Deuce and the Yo pay 15 to 1. They are both considered the low side.

A Horn High will pay one of 4 payments

$57 - High side hits directly. For example, Horn High Twelve, and Twelve rolls.

$27 - Low side hits directly. For example, Horn High Yo, and Yo rolls.

$26 - High side hits indirectly. For example, Horn High Ace Deuce, and Twelve Rolls.

$11 - Low side hits indirectly. For example, Horn High Aces, and Yo rolls.

Session Buy-In Matters

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 25 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 48.90% win rate on getting to 40 units (+15 units),
a 32.96% win rate on getting to 50 units (+25 units),
a 23% win rate on getting to 60 units (+35 units),
and a 10.16% win rate on getting to 85 units (+60 units).

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 15 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 51.37% win rate on getting to 25 units (+10 units),
a 31.2% win rate on getting to 35 units (+20 units),
a 25.12% win rate on getting to 40 units (+25 units),
and a 9.96% win rate on getting to 65 units (+50 units).

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 10 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 52.92% win rate on getting to 17 units (+7 units),
a 33.61% win rate on getting to 24 units (+14 units),
a 23.26% win rate on getting to 31 units (+21 units),
and a 9.72% win rate on getting to 52 units (+42 units).


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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36319-the-odds/2/#post819557
Quote: mwalz9
Playing any of the close to 50/50 games...craps line bets, roulette even money bets, blackjack, baccarat or Pai Gow Poker, what are the odds you win your $100 before losing $10,000?

Say you bet $50 units. No crazy systems like Martingale, Oscar's Grind, etc...

Just betting normally.

Surely you can be up 2 units before you're down 200?

Quote: ThatDonGuy
This is what is known as "Risk of Ruin" - in flat betting, what is the probability of reaching a certain target before losing your entire bankroll. In this case, the initial bankroll is 200, and the target is 202.

I believe the formula is (1 - (q/p)^B) / (1 - (q/p)^T), where p is the probability of winning one bet, q is the probability of losing one bet (i.e. 1 - p), B is the initial bankroll, and T is the target.

For the pass line on craps, p = about 0.4929 and q = about 0.5071, so q/p = about 1.02881, and with B = 200 and T = 202, the probability of success is 94.46%.

For the even-money bets on double-zero roulette, q/p = 10/9, and the probability of success is 81%. Yes, one time out of five, you will lose the entire $10,000 before being ahead $100.

This is because the more bets you need to make to win, the more money you expose to the house edge. You would be much better off with $100 bets instead of $50; the chance of success is now 90% in roulette.

Black Orchid High Limit Slot Progressive

Big Jackpot Wins on Black Orchid High Limit Slot Progressive - YouTube - Slots N-Stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC6ci5v4R2U

"** Note: All play is recorded on a personally owned full size IGT slot machine. I do not represent a casino or manufacturer and all play is just for fun, and not for real money. Games are also set at a maximum payout of 96-98% as per the maximum amount allowable for each game. Always play responsibly as gambling is not a way to make money and is for entertainment purposes only."

I thought something was up when hand pays were $200,000 on up. There's some multi-million dollar winner hand pays in this video. Each pull is $49,500, and each buy-in is half a million. Just getting ready for that crazy inflation everybody is talking about.

WSOP Vaccination Rules - YT podcast

WSOP Vaccination Rules, GG on WSOP, Voicemails - DAT Poker Podcast Episode #106 - Daniel Negreanu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcqUNBL67OM

Baccarat and the 5% vig

So if I win 40 Banker bets and lose 40 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 40 Player losses of -$1,000, so my net is -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 40 x $25 = $1,000 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of $0, break even.
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If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 39 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 39 Player losses of -$975, so my net is -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 39 x $25 = $975 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.
*****
If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 38 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 38 Player losses of -$950, so my net is $0, break even.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 38 x $25 = $950 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.
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Playing 20 shoes plus extra cards to exclude the ties, with no bias from the WOO calculations. 20 shoes x 80 hands = 1600 hands. Working with my $1,000 buy-in.

So if I win 800 Banker bets and lose 800 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 800 Player losses of -$20,000, so my net is -$1,000, or -40 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 800 x $25 = $20,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of $0, break even.
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If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 780 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 780 Player losses of -$19,500, so my net is -$500, or -20 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 780 x $25 = $19,500 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$500, or -20 bets in that session.
*****
If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 760 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 760 Player losses of -$19,000, so my net is $0, break even.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 760 x $25 = $19,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$1,000 or -40 bets in that session.
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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/36285-banker-payout/4/#post818473
Per WOO the probabilities are:

Banker: 0.458597
Player: 0.446247
Tie: 0.095156

So over 75 hands you would expect:

Banker: 34.4
Player: 33.5
Tie: 7.1

So just less than one more banker than player. So why the 5% tax? Seems weird at first that it would make it still a better bet than player. But here’s one way to look at the math:

Bet player for the whole shoe and you win 33.5 hands, lose 34.4 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 33.5 - 34.4 = -0.9

Bet banker for the whole shoe and you win 95 cents on 34.4 hands (there’s the commission), lose 33.5 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 34.4*0.95 - 33.5 = -0.82

So you still do 8 cents better on banker!