ChumpChange's Blog
Oct 10, 2018
Win $1000 a day on the Don'ts?
Article link: Shooting From The Don’ts…A Journey of Opportunity - Part 8https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad150dontpart8.htm
Let me give you a perfect world example:
Ø Let’s start with a $25 flat-bet on the Don’t Pass.
Ø We’ll ignore any Come-Out bets for a moment and get right to the Point.
Ø Let’s say we roll a 5 as the PL-Point.
Ø If you have a validated dice-influencing edge over the casino; then as a Darkside-shooter, full-Odds has to figure into your betting regimen. If you don’t have an edge, then you are merely gambling and this discussion is moot.
Ø At a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds table, the casino will allow your Darkside Odds to be wagered at up to 6x your flat DP-bet amount.
Ø If your DP line-bet is $5; then you are permitted to Lay up to $30 in Odds no matter what the Point is.
Ø In this example, our $25 DP-bet will be backed up with $150 in 6x-Odds.
Ø Let’s say that we can pretty well 7-Out almost every time we need to. That’s not to say that we can 7-Out on demand, but rather that we can almost always 7-Out before accidentally repeating the PL-Point.
Ø A DP line-away winner will pay us $25 on the flat-bet and at a 2:3 payoff for the PL-Point of 5, our Odds generate another $100 in revenue. In total, we now have $125 to the good.
Ø A PL-Point of 4 or 10 will generate $100 in net-winnings for the same $25 DP and $150 in Odds wager; while a similarly funded DP-bet against the PL-Point of either the 6 or 8 will spin-off $150 in total earnings.
Ø If we can manage to do that for just eight of our hands in a row ($125 average-win per hand times 8 hands), we’ll easily get to our $1000/day win-goal with very little problem.
Oct 08, 2018
Columbus Day Craps 2018
It's a Monday and I had 2 $10 match plays waiting for me so I thought I'd use them up since they expired today. Got to the tables at 3 pm and one was packed and the other wasn't but the limits were $5 higher on each than normal for a Monday. So I had to double my buy-in to play at the $10 table. I tried to put $12 down on the Don't Come with my match play and the dealer said I could only use them on Pass, Don't Pass or Field Bets; not on Come or Don't Come or any other bets. So I picked up my bet and gave the other match play to the dealer to be signed. While I was waiting, the stick person skipped me. I don't know what to make of this crowd so I'm doing my single Don't Comes with a 6 or 8 PB up after the 2nd DC point gets set up. The 3rd shooter was from hook right. I think I won 2 DC's and 3 PBs while he shot, but he made the 5 point Fire Bet that 3 people were on. The guy next to me bought in for $100, and he was making $10 Come bets with $15 odds in addition to his line bet. By the end he was probably betting $40 Come with $80 odds. He colored up after that roll with $1600. The stickwoman told the old man to put that money in a trust fund for her, lol.I shifted places when a spot opened up and noticed a sign by the boxman that said table minimums will rise at 3:40pm. I was wondering, because it was 5 o'clock, what that was about. Then I see the dealer use some kind of remote control to change the digital display to a $15 table, and I left immediately. I could have left 40 minutes in ahead $12, but I lost $62 instead.
I've gotta win like 35 units to get $1000+ ahead at the $6 table, before I upgrade to the $15 tables, where a similar win would get me near $2500.
Comments
I'm working on a Come progression. Since I rarely get more than a couple wins in a row on the come-out comes, there's no progression there. The progression would be on odds.
Come Bet: $6
Odds progression: $10, $10, $15, $20, $25, $35, $45, $25, $35, $45, $45.
Optionally use in place of an $18 PB 6 or 8. If my 7 come with odds wins were on the 6/8, I'd have won $219 after the next bet was made.
Odds on 5, 9: add $1 to bets that end in $5.
You trying to tell us the crew doesn't like your style of play and so changes the limits just to annoy you?
I thought that only happened to FleaStiff.
They're putting me on notice they are greedy bastards on weekends and holidays, so go home. Yes.
I was there until 10 pm the previous Monday at a $5 table. It's the same bunch of senior citizens who show up at the table week after week, but some bet large.
They've been known to raise the tables from $15 to $25 on a Saturday night after a hot roll in order to break up the action.
In this case, the clock on the sign preceded the hot roll by just a few minutes but didn't go into effect until a few shooters after the hot roll. (100 minutes)
They only keep 1 or 2 craps tables open, and maybe 3 or 4 blackjack tables open outside of the high limit room; but they've surely got many more tables than that that sit empty. There's talk the casino could go bankrupt next year, and it only opened last year.
Oct 01, 2018
2 DC & PB 6 or 8
I'm getting tired of the rest of the table bringing me down, but the Point-7-outs continue. I rescued a 3 session loss in 6 hours by playing Don't Come with my usual bet progression that leads to a session win with 6 wins in a row. I'd let these shooters play the line without me and they'd throw 7's and craps before setting a point. I'd come in with a Don't Come bet, and more often than not it would move to an inside number. I'd wait for the shooter to make his point (or to knock my point out) then I'd make another DC bet after the come-out which may be a winner (or loser) for me. Then I'd make a Place Bet 6 or 8 opposite my DC bet if necessary. The Don't is a hedge to my Place Bet until either loses, then the Place Bet(s) stay up for the rest of the hand. But I have to qualify the shooter by making him make a point first before I put up the Don't with the PB hedge, or when I put up a second Don't point to beat. I only have 1 Don't bet up at a time, but several times it lost on a 7-out in the DC box.My PB 6 or 8 progression would be: $6, $6, $12, $12, $12, $24, $48, $48, $48, etc.
If I had raised my DC bets to $12, I'd cover both the 6 & 8 for $6.
Of course I didn't do all that because I was too desperate to collect $7 each time.
When I was throwing, I could have a few 30-50 roll throws, so I'd be a good candidate to run an Iron Cross when my PB 6 or 8 gets to $18 or $30.
Edit 3/6/19: Changing my PB 6 or 8 progression to: $6, $6, $12, $12, $12, $12, $24, $24... and wins $60 on 7 wins, and $200 on 12 wins.
Changing my PB 6 & 8 progression to: double lowest bet or last hit number on rolls 3 & 4, and 9 & 10, and 18 & 19.
Comments
You toss these numbers around - 30 roll hands, 50 roll hands --- in the one just below this you mention your joy if you were to load up your bets and hit an 80 roll hand. When I used to smoke, 4% was the average THC content and many sore throats were the result. It seems you have come across today's strains that have up to 30% THC content. That is the only explanation for you to discuss 80 roll hands. Why bring up something that - if it occurs at all - only happens once in your lifetime? Base your calculations on reality, which is the occasional 7-out just as things start getting good. And remember, the longer you play a negative expectation game, the further into the hole you go.
Sep 17, 2018
PB 6 or 8 into Iron Cross
I've never played this way, not even on WinCraps (which hates me forever!). I was watching an Al Kaufman Pass Don't Pass Martingale on YouTube and thinking that could work, win $500 a day, or it could fail and lose $2380 with a losing streak of 8 on the line bet which has a 5/1000 chance of happening. The magic of that is you win $5 at level 1, $10 on level 2, $15 on level 3, and $20 on levels 4-8. The bets were $5, $15, $35, $75, $150, $300, $600, and $1200. He suggested people only win $50 per table, maybe to duck heat, and his method has been banned in a few Vegas casinos.After that I stumbled onto an Iron Cross video which wins on every hit. I thought, well, what's this?
My strategy today is to put an extra place bet on the 6 or 8 for $30. When it hits, I'll have a total of $65 and I could spread it to 3 units on the 5, 6, 8 place bets and 2 units on the Field Bet. I could wait for a 2nd hit on the place bet before unloading the Iron Cross spreadout if I want to break even on the place bet first, or I could win 3 numbers in the Iron Cross to pay for the original place bet. This is a way to qualify a shooter outside of the P7O area, with less money at risk.
When I hit 8 numbers in the Iron Cross (I'll be winning $10 or $11 on each hit), I could use 3 of those ($30) to add to a Place Bet 6 or 8, and when that wins I can double the amounts on my Iron Cross to 6 units on the place bets and 4 units on the Field Bet. It may take a little while to hit that place bet but in the meantime I'm still hitting for $10-$11 a number, until I double-up, then I'll be winning $20-$22 a number. On longer rolls, I could keep doubling-up this way maybe to the table max and winning $550 or $1100 a number. Imagine being on a 80+ roll hand and every number except the come-outs (and 7 outs) pays my top bets!
I keep thinking of a pichinko flower opening up when I convert a place bet to an IronCross or the double-up on that.
My double-up place bets added to the 6 or 8 after winning 8 numbers on the current level are: $30, $60, $120, $240, $480, $600 (on PB 9), $1400 (on PB 9) or No Double-up Bet at Table Max ($3355 Iron Cross) ($1K table max), No Double-up Bet at Table Max ($6710 Iron Cross) ($2K table max).
My Field Bets will run-up like $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $550, $1100. PB 5's will be 1.5X the Field Bets, PB 6 & 8's will be 1.8X the Field Bets. Total Iron Cross will be 6.1X the Field Bet.
Comments
LOL. The Professor. I remember him. What a shyster! Still. he makes money from the Yahoo ads now, so he's successfully used his systems for profit $:o)Quote:I was watching an Al Kaufman Pass Don't Pass Martingale on YouTube and thinking that could work,
I couldn't tell from your post(s) whether you have your tongue firmly in your cheek, so just to save any newbie reader of your blog from losing his shirt. Al Kaufman's progressive betting systems are bunk: Nonsense ways to lose your money He's just re-selling plain old Martingale. Martingale is a fun way to lose money. If you like adrenaline rushes as you commit financial suicide, then Al's your man.
I'm not completely against progressive betting systems because they can be more amusing than flat betting. but if you play such progressions and you lose on aggregate, then the universe is treating you fairly. It's not a case of having unusually bad luck.
Jun 24, 2018
Field Bets
I saw a video on YouTube where a guy would bet a progression that was like: $10, $15, $25, $35, $50, $75, $125, $175, $250 but those were the bets on every odd numbered bet in the sequence. He would double up on all wins on the even numbered bets in the sequence. So bet $10, win $10, next double-up bet is $20, win $20; 3rd bet is $15, roll a 2 and win $30, next full parlay bet $45, roll another 2, win $90, next bet is $25. I tried it and got up $500 thrice after going down $500 once. I was using Triple Pay on the 12 using WinCraps. I got to the 8th bet once, and the 11th bet once. I might try it again but just do double-up instead of full parlay.I felt I was losing on the even numbered bets too often so I went back to betting habits I know.
I bet $15, $20, $25, $30, $40, $50 on a progression. I found I could hardly string 2 wins together so I huddled down to $15, $15, $20, $25, $30 then stay at $30 until a loss.
WinCraps hates me (so much) so by the time I lost 50 units (~$750) I had 695 wins on (3, 4, 9, 10, 11), 39 wins on (2), 61 wins on (12), and 997 losses. So that's 302 losses redeemed by 78 on the (2), and 183 on the (12), for a total of being 41 units down if I was flat betting. I get a bit of slippage using a regular progression especially after 1792 rolls.
Comments
How long is 1792 rolls in Real Life?
How many drinks will you consume in that time period, how many tips will give to the attractive Tray Lizard?
Will you be sober enough to keep track of even/odd progressions?
Try this progression on your WinCraps:
On Pass Line, no Odds or on Don't Pass, no odds.
1-2-3-5-7-9-11
On a minimum $5 table, Bet
$5-$10-$15-$25-$35-$45-$55
Follow these rules:
Always Start with $5.
After every Win, go Down one step. DO NOT GO UP ONE STEP!
After every Loss, go UP one step. DO NOT GO DOWN ONE STEP!
STOP at after every Bet on $1, Start again with $5.
STOP at after every Bet on $11, Start again with $5.
Comments
You could have ended right after "if you have a validated dice influencing edge...". No such thing. End of story.
I find that when the dice go the way I bet, I make $1000 a day. When they don't, I lose. Strange the way that works!!