ChumpChange's Blog

Session Buy-In Matters

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 25 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 48.90% win rate on getting to 40 units (+15 units),
a 32.96% win rate on getting to 50 units (+25 units),
a 23% win rate on getting to 60 units (+35 units),
and a 10.16% win rate on getting to 85 units (+60 units).

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 15 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 51.37% win rate on getting to 25 units (+10 units),
a 31.2% win rate on getting to 35 units (+20 units),
a 25.12% win rate on getting to 40 units (+25 units),
and a 9.96% win rate on getting to 65 units (+50 units).

If I started a (PL, no odds) session with a 10 unit buy-in,
I'd have a 52.92% win rate on getting to 17 units (+7 units),
a 33.61% win rate on getting to 24 units (+14 units),
a 23.26% win rate on getting to 31 units (+21 units),
and a 9.72% win rate on getting to 52 units (+42 units).


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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/36319-the-odds/2/#post819557
Quote: mwalz9
Playing any of the close to 50/50 games...craps line bets, roulette even money bets, blackjack, baccarat or Pai Gow Poker, what are the odds you win your $100 before losing $10,000?

Say you bet $50 units. No crazy systems like Martingale, Oscar's Grind, etc...

Just betting normally.

Surely you can be up 2 units before you're down 200?

Quote: ThatDonGuy
This is what is known as "Risk of Ruin" - in flat betting, what is the probability of reaching a certain target before losing your entire bankroll. In this case, the initial bankroll is 200, and the target is 202.

I believe the formula is (1 - (q/p)^B) / (1 - (q/p)^T), where p is the probability of winning one bet, q is the probability of losing one bet (i.e. 1 - p), B is the initial bankroll, and T is the target.

For the pass line on craps, p = about 0.4929 and q = about 0.5071, so q/p = about 1.02881, and with B = 200 and T = 202, the probability of success is 94.46%.

For the even-money bets on double-zero roulette, q/p = 10/9, and the probability of success is 81%. Yes, one time out of five, you will lose the entire $10,000 before being ahead $100.

This is because the more bets you need to make to win, the more money you expose to the house edge. You would be much better off with $100 bets instead of $50; the chance of success is now 90% in roulette.

Black Orchid High Limit Slot Progressive

Big Jackpot Wins on Black Orchid High Limit Slot Progressive - YouTube - Slots N-Stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC6ci5v4R2U

"** Note: All play is recorded on a personally owned full size IGT slot machine. I do not represent a casino or manufacturer and all play is just for fun, and not for real money. Games are also set at a maximum payout of 96-98% as per the maximum amount allowable for each game. Always play responsibly as gambling is not a way to make money and is for entertainment purposes only."

I thought something was up when hand pays were $200,000 on up. There's some multi-million dollar winner hand pays in this video. Each pull is $49,500, and each buy-in is half a million. Just getting ready for that crazy inflation everybody is talking about.

WSOP Vaccination Rules - YT podcast

WSOP Vaccination Rules, GG on WSOP, Voicemails - DAT Poker Podcast Episode #106 - Daniel Negreanu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcqUNBL67OM

Baccarat and the 5% vig

So if I win 40 Banker bets and lose 40 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 40 Player losses of -$1,000, so my net is -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 40 x $25 = $1,000 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of $0, break even.
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If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 39 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 39 Player losses of -$975, so my net is -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 39 x $25 = $975 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.
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If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 38 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 38 Player losses of -$950, so my net is $0, break even.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 38 x $25 = $950 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.
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Playing 20 shoes plus extra cards to exclude the ties, with no bias from the WOO calculations. 20 shoes x 80 hands = 1600 hands. Working with my $1,000 buy-in.

So if I win 800 Banker bets and lose 800 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 800 Player losses of -$20,000, so my net is -$1,000, or -40 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 800 x $25 = $20,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of $0, break even.
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If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 780 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 780 Player losses of -$19,500, so my net is -$500, or -20 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 780 x $25 = $19,500 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$500, or -20 bets in that session.
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If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 760 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 760 Player losses of -$19,000, so my net is $0, break even.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 760 x $25 = $19,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$1,000 or -40 bets in that session.
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https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/36285-banker-payout/4/#post818473
Per WOO the probabilities are:

Banker: 0.458597
Player: 0.446247
Tie: 0.095156

So over 75 hands you would expect:

Banker: 34.4
Player: 33.5
Tie: 7.1

So just less than one more banker than player. So why the 5% tax? Seems weird at first that it would make it still a better bet than player. But here’s one way to look at the math:

Bet player for the whole shoe and you win 33.5 hands, lose 34.4 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 33.5 - 34.4 = -0.9

Bet banker for the whole shoe and you win 95 cents on 34.4 hands (there’s the commission), lose 33.5 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 34.4*0.95 - 33.5 = -0.82

So you still do 8 cents better on banker!

The $60K Casino Drawing

I went to the local casino late last night in anticipation of a $60,000 drawing. The fine print said if nobody won, the prize would be increased by $10,000 next month, and there's a $50,000 minimum. So nobody won last month. Five people would be chosen by computer and they had to register for the drawing within 60 minutes of the drawing at the kiosk where you swipe your player's card. Their name would be announced over the loudspeakers and they'd get 5 minutes to respond to the promotions booth/gift shop and they'd be shuttled into the gift shop, which was closed. Inside the gift shop there was a barrel drum that the officials can rotate with a handle on one one end. I would think there would be just 5 envelopes for the 5 people announced, but no. There were hundreds of envelopes in the drum, all of them sealed and filled with official free play coupons worth $100 to $1,000. Thing is, one of the contestants got a $50 free play coupon. I didn't see if she got two coupons in one envelope, but I don't think so. The MC of the event put one envelope worth $50,000 into the drum at the start after 2 people didn't show up and we waited an extra 15 minutes for someone to show up. Maybe the MC misspoke and said $50,000 instead of $60,000, I don't know. They also said $120,000 WOULD BE AWARDED in the December drawing. So you just run this scam all year adding $10,000 each month and only giving out free plays because nobody can find that one envelope of the big money in the sea of other envelopes? Well, since the jackpot is only $60,000 in July, that would seem true, but the fine print says there's a $50,000 minimum, so somebody must have won 2 months ago. How to get registered for the drawing: the higher tier you have on your Player's card, the more entries you get in the drawing. so it's going to skew very favorably towards highest tier entrants to get chosen. A highest tier entrant may get 250 entries, next one down may get 150 entries, and the next one down may get double digits (very low double digits possibly). A computer draws from the entries and the MC just reads the names & card numbers. You have to be attentive and ready to respond in 5 minutes. If your name is called and you're on a 70 free spin binge on a slot machine, you're not gonna make it unless a friend takes over the machine for you. I'm not gonna bet the house on winning this drawing, even if the house was only worth $60,000. I heard Sussudio playing over the loudspeakers just before the drawing started. That makes their music selection totally suspect.