ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Aug 13, 2021

Baccarat and the 5% vig

So if I win 40 Banker bets and lose 40 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 40 Player losses of -$1,000, so my net is -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 40 x $25 = $1,000 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of $0, break even.
*****
If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 39 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 39 Player losses of -$975, so my net is -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 39 x $25 = $975 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$25, or -1 bet in that shoe.
*****
If I win 40 Banker bets and lose 38 Player bets in one shoe, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $1,000 x 95% = $950, and I have 38 Player losses of -$950, so my net is $0, break even.

Same shoe but I bet Player: I win 38 x $25 = $950 and lose 40 x $25 = $1,000 for a net of -$50, or -2 bets in that shoe.
*******************************************************************************************************************************
Playing 20 shoes plus extra cards to exclude the ties, with no bias from the WOO calculations. 20 shoes x 80 hands = 1600 hands. Working with my $1,000 buy-in.

So if I win 800 Banker bets and lose 800 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 800 Player losses of -$20,000, so my net is -$1,000, or -40 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 800 x $25 = $20,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of $0, break even.
*****
If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 780 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 780 Player losses of -$19,500, so my net is -$500, or -20 bets in that session.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 780 x $25 = $19,500 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$500, or -20 bets in that session.
*****
If I win 800 Banker bets and lose 760 Player bets in 20 shoes, my table minimum bet is $25, my total winning bets are $20,000 x 95% = $19,000, and I have 760 Player losses of -$19,000, so my net is $0, break even.

Same 20 shoes but I bet Player: I win 760 x $25 = $19,000 and lose 800 x $25 = $20,000 for a net of -$1,000 or -40 bets in that session.
*********************************************************************************************************************************************
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/36285-banker-payout/4/#post818473
Per WOO the probabilities are:

Banker: 0.458597
Player: 0.446247
Tie: 0.095156

So over 75 hands you would expect:

Banker: 34.4
Player: 33.5
Tie: 7.1

So just less than one more banker than player. So why the 5% tax? Seems weird at first that it would make it still a better bet than player. But here’s one way to look at the math:

Bet player for the whole shoe and you win 33.5 hands, lose 34.4 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 33.5 - 34.4 = -0.9

Bet banker for the whole shoe and you win 95 cents on 34.4 hands (there’s the commission), lose 33.5 hands and push 7.1 hands for a net loss of: 34.4*0.95 - 33.5 = -0.82

So you still do 8 cents better on banker!

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Aug 13, 2021

Indeed.

For a representative assortment of hands, you will lose less money wagering Banker.... It has a lower house edge. So no surprise there.

There was some rounding introduced with the 34.4 and 33.5

Edge
Edge Aug 19, 2021

Yes the rounding and small sample size obscure the analysis, but I think that's only half the story. I find it more illuminating to disregard the ties, as they are non events (for this analysis anyway). Once we do that, you can see that for hands with a meaningful outcome (not a tie):



the banker wins 50.6825%

the player wins 49.3175%



In a fantasy world with no commission, the rates of return would be double that:



banker 101.365%

player 98.635%



Now in order to properly account for the commission, we subtract 2.5 from the bankers fantasy number. We only need to subtract 2.5 because the commission is only charged on the winnings, and not on the original bet, (which is returned to the player with his winnings). Thus we end up with a rate of return for the banker which is 98.865%, just 0.23% higher than that of the player. This is less than a quarter on $100 bill.



Yes, my numbers are slightly different from the wizard's, simply because mine are undiluted by the ties.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Jun 26, 2021

The $60K Casino Drawing

I went to the local casino late last night in anticipation of a $60,000 drawing. The fine print said if nobody won, the prize would be increased by $10,000 next month, and there's a $50,000 minimum. So nobody won last month. Five people would be chosen by computer and they had to register for the drawing within 60 minutes of the drawing at the kiosk where you swipe your player's card. Their name would be announced over the loudspeakers and they'd get 5 minutes to respond to the promotions booth/gift shop and they'd be shuttled into the gift shop, which was closed. Inside the gift shop there was a barrel drum that the officials can rotate with a handle on one one end. I would think there would be just 5 envelopes for the 5 people announced, but no. There were hundreds of envelopes in the drum, all of them sealed and filled with official free play coupons worth $100 to $1,000. Thing is, one of the contestants got a $50 free play coupon. I didn't see if she got two coupons in one envelope, but I don't think so. The MC of the event put one envelope worth $50,000 into the drum at the start after 2 people didn't show up and we waited an extra 15 minutes for someone to show up. Maybe the MC misspoke and said $50,000 instead of $60,000, I don't know. They also said $120,000 WOULD BE AWARDED in the December drawing. So you just run this scam all year adding $10,000 each month and only giving out free plays because nobody can find that one envelope of the big money in the sea of other envelopes? Well, since the jackpot is only $60,000 in July, that would seem true, but the fine print says there's a $50,000 minimum, so somebody must have won 2 months ago. How to get registered for the drawing: the higher tier you have on your Player's card, the more entries you get in the drawing. so it's going to skew very favorably towards highest tier entrants to get chosen. A highest tier entrant may get 250 entries, next one down may get 150 entries, and the next one down may get double digits (very low double digits possibly). A computer draws from the entries and the MC just reads the names & card numbers. You have to be attentive and ready to respond in 5 minutes. If your name is called and you're on a 70 free spin binge on a slot machine, you're not gonna make it unless a friend takes over the machine for you. I'm not gonna bet the house on winning this drawing, even if the house was only worth $60,000. I heard Sussudio playing over the loudspeakers just before the drawing started. That makes their music selection totally suspect.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Jun 23, 2021

What is Play+

Resorts World brings mobile payments to Las Vegas gaming tables • NFCW
https://www.nfcw.com/whats-new-in-payments/resorts-world-brings-mobile-payments-to-las-vegas-gaming-tables/

Not sure how to buy-in for $28,800 at a craps table with this. Did I win that much on a slot machine or was it free play sent to my phone?

What is Play+ and How Does it Work? | Sightline Payments - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aT7w9Rfn2TU

Why Customers Love Play+ (Independent Survey) | Sightline Payments - YouTube
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Sightline Accelerates the Adoption of Digital Payment Methods for the US Gaming and Lottery Industry - YouTube
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What good is a branded Play+ Card if you get thrown out of the casino? You'll have to go to an ATM across the street to get your money out. This card won't work at differently branded casinos.

The National Indian Gaming Association's Associate Member Spotlight with Sightline Payments - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg9K4gpN61g

Guess I'll have to go to a 7-11 and put $100 cash on the card.

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ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Jun 19, 2021

Why my Even $ Bets on Roulette Lose

I could win 9 ahead instead of 3-4 ahead on a 25 unit buy-in (0 vs 00).
If the machine spins once every 75 seconds, approx., that's 48 spins an hour.
I could get 4 hours on a 00 wheel, and 6 hours on 0 wheel per 25 unit buy-in.
I could get 2 hours on a 00 wheel, and 2.5 hours on 0 wheel per 15 unit buy-in.
I'm not gonna double my money by flat-betting. A progression may be different.













W/L, # spins, # sq Div 18 Win, 00 Loss, 00 Div 36 Win, 0 Loss, 0
1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
2 4 0.2 1.8 2.2 0.1 1.9 2.1
3 9 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.3 2.7 3.3
4 16 0.9 3.1 4.9 0.4 3.6 4.4
5 25 1.4 3.6 6.4 0.7 4.3 5.7
6 36 2.0 4.0 8.0 1.0 5.0 7.0
7 49 2.7 4.3 9.7 1.4 5.6 8.4
8 64 3.6 4.4 12.4 1.8 6.2 9.8
9 81 4.5 4.5 13.5 2.3 6.7 11.3
10 100 5.6 4.4 14.4 2.8 7.2 12.8
11 121 6.7 4.3 17.7 3.4 7.6 14.4
12 144 8.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 8.0 16.0
13 169 9.4 3.6 22.4 4.7 8.3 17.7
14 196 9.4 3.1 24.9 5.4 8.6 19.4
15 225 12.5 2.5 27.5 6.3 8.7 21.3
16 256 14.2 1.8 30.2 7.1 8.9 23.1
17 289 16.1 0.9 33.1 8.0 9.0 26.0
18 324 18.0 0.0 36.0 9.0 9.0 27.0
19 361 20.6 -1.6 39.6 10.0 9.0 29.0
20 400 22.2 -2.2 42.2 11.1 8.9 31.1

Comments

OnceDear
OnceDear Jun 19, 2021

Sorry. I don't understand your posted words or your table, beyond column 2.

ChumpChange
ChumpChange Jun 20, 2021

Craps PL/DP HA: I'm taking the reciprocal of 0.0141 and getting approximately 71. If I take the reciprocal of 0.01389 for the Don'ts, I get about 72. So that's like playing a single zero roulette wheel where it has that "La Partage Rule" (and getting half your bet back if the ball lands on a zero). The lower House Advantage means you'll likely get higher highs on the upside. So if you place 400 different PL bets, the square root of that is 20 wins/losses, then throw in the HA of -5.6 bets and you'll be playing a game of 1 SD between (-25.6, +14.4). So I should set my buy-in at 25 units, and set a win goal of 15 units at the craps table over the time it takes to make 400 PL bets. Of course things could get to 2 SD or even 3 SD. That's another calculation and maybe another buy-in or two. I could try to set a win goal of 50+ units, but I'm gonna settle for 35 units for that fluke win streak.

ChumpChange
Posted by ChumpChange
Jun 08, 2021

Super Power Press System PB/Buy 4 & 10

Super Power Press System PB/Buy 4 & 10 (5% vig on buy bets) ---6/8/2021
Bubble Craps - $390 Buy limit

$5 on Buy 4 & 10 each
If either one hits, drop $1 and press one of the numbers to $15.
If a 2nd hit, rack $12 and press number to $30
If a 3rd hit, rack $40 and press to $50
If a 4th hit, rack $50, and press to $100
If a 5th hit, rack $100, and press to $200
If a 6th hit, rack $200, and press to $390
If a 7th hit and beyond, rack $760 ($1,200 slot limit warning)


Super Power Press System PB/Buy 4 & 10 (5% vig on buy bets) ---6/8/2021

$10 on PB/Buy 4 & 10 each
If either one hits, rack the change, and press one of the numbers to $25.
If a 2nd hit, full press number to $75
If a 3rd hit, rack $100 and press to $125
If a 4th hit, rack $125, and press to $250
If a 5th hit, rack $250, and press to $500
If a 6th hit, rack $500, and press to $1,000
If a 7th hit and beyond, rack $1,950


Buy $25 on Buy 4 & 10 each
If either one hits, rack the change, and press one of the numbers to $50.
If a 2nd hit, full press number to $150
If a 3rd hit, rack $200, and press to $250
If a 4th hit, rack $250, and press to $500
If a 5th hit, rack $500, and press to $1,000
If a 6th hit, rack $1,000, and press to $2,000
If a 7th hit and beyond, rack $3,900

Buy $50 on Buy 4 & 10 each
If either one hits, rack the change, and press one of the numbers to $100.
If a 2nd hit, full press number to $300
If a 3rd hit, rack $400 and press to $500
If a 4th hit, rack $500, and press to $1,000
If a 5th hit, rack $1,000, and press to $2,000
If a 6th hit, rack $3,000, and press to $3,000
If a 7th hit and beyond, rack $5,850 ($3K Table Max)

Comments

tuttigym
tuttigym Jul 12, 2021

Mr. Chumpc: I want you to evaluate this possible craps "plan." Please do NOT revert to the mathematical gymnastics that you are famous for. Perhaps Mr. OG could also jump in. I tried this on WinCraps for a short time and found no downside, however, I know it cannot be as good as it seems.

The table is a $15 minimum.



Doey/Don't come out always at $15

What ever point is established: $20 FO + $30 Don't Odds

Then $15 DC for three different numbers and add the same $15 or $18 (6 or 8) Place bet for the same number. Every hit take down the bet with the win until all the numbers played are resolved during the hand. If all number have won, then either wait for a 7 out or point winner or you could hop the 7 for $3 for the next 5 rolls.

If nothing happens wait it out until resolution to end the hand. New hand, start again.



If you have a simulation entity, perhaps you could try it. There has got to be a losing scenario I am sure, but it looks like one could play this way for awhile.



tuttigym