Coronavirus math
from the article:
"A poll in May by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only about half of Americans said they would be willing to get a coronavirus vaccine. One in five said they would refuse and 31 percent were uncertain. [Many] said they agreed with this statement: “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-anti-vaccine.html
Quote: lilredroostermany Americans will likely refuse a vaccine for Covid if and when it is available
from the article:
"A poll in May by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only about half of Americans said they would be willing to get a coronavirus vaccine. One in five said they would refuse and 31 percent were uncertain. [Many] said they agreed with this statement: “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-anti-vaccine.html
'Merica!!! *rolls eyes*
Quote: lilredroostermany Americans will likely refuse a vaccine for Covid if and when it is available
from the article:
"A poll in May by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only about half of Americans said they would be willing to get a coronavirus vaccine. One in five said they would refuse and 31 percent were uncertain. [Many] said they agreed with this statement: “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-anti-vaccine.html
Here's another news flash: Many Americans are idiots.
Quote: UP84
Here's another news flash: Many Americans are idiots.
No, many Americans are careful these days in uncertain times. You all take the vaccine, then get back to us.
Quote: DeMangoNo, many Americans are careful these days in uncertain times. You all take the vaccine, then get back to us.
Those Americans who agree with the statement “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans" are not being careful, they're being idiotic.
Quote: UP84Those Americans who agree with the statement “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans" are not being careful, they're being idiotic.
Those are very few
Quote: UP84Those Americans who agree with the statement “The coronavirus is being used to force a dangerous and unnecessary vaccine on Americans" are not being careful, they're being idiotic.
Quote: DeMangoThose are very few
22% is hardly very few.
Agree with McAllister. Your percentage from MSNBC no doubt.Quote: UP8422% is hardly very few.
Quote: ChumpChangeWill the Post Office issue Coronavirus stamps or will they shutter because they didn't?
Personal insult mods!
Quote: lilredroostermany Americans will likely refuse a vaccine for Covid if and when it is available
Trans fat, red dye, cyclomates, cigarette smoke, radiation, antibiotics, pesticides, cell phone cancer, smog, power lines, etc., etc.,
No telling why this one thing is finally going to be the deal breaker that they absolutely have to avoid.
Wait 'till they find out their favorite toilet paper gives them brain cancer.
Quote: rxwineTrans fat, red dye, cyclomates, cigarette smoke, radiation, antibiotics, pesticides, cell phone cancer, smog, power lines, etc., etc.,
No telling why this one thing is finally going to be the deal breaker that they absolutely have to avoid.
Wait 'till they find out their favorite toilet paper gives them brain cancer.
I mean, I could sum it up in a few words. I do not want to be the guinea pig. Regardless of when a CV-19 vaccine comes out to the public, the testing process will have been rushed. Much like when a new iPhone comes out, I will not buy it until the bugs and kinks have been worked out. Not against the vaccine, but will not be the first in line to take it either
Helps put things in perspective.
Someone I know came down with pretty bad flu-like symptoms after traveling by airplane.
Based only on a chest X-ray, he was diagnosed with coronavirus and sent home.
After 2 weeks of not getting any better, he went back and actually got swab tested for coronavirus, and it was negative.
It turns out he had bacterial pneumonia and got better in a few days with antibiotics.
Quote: unJonSome good news on the treatment front today. Studies showing that inhaling interferon beta made patients 79% less likely to deteriorate to the point of needing to be put on a ventilator.
Links are always nice.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/21/vaccine-treatements-interferon-beta-1a-therapy
Unfortunately this study suffers from a bit of a sample size problem.
Sounds like 19 of 50 needed a ventilator in the placebo group (ouch) and 4 of 50 did in the interferon group. That would be a 79% reduction. But even with just 50 patients in each group, that might still be promising.
"A bit if an aside, but I saw a US doctor in CNN saying that they are reducing fatalities somewhat already. He said lying patients prone rather than on their back is helping, as is that steroid and also the remdesivir. If this works as well, things start to seem a bit less grim."
Obviously, the US doctor wasn't a Leronlimnab investor.
Also, this comment which made me laugh:
'The moment somebody says "game changer" you know it's a dud."
Quote: gordonm888
"A bit if an aside, but I saw a US doctor in CNN saying that they are reducing fatalities somewhat already. He said lying patients prone rather than on their back is helping, as is that steroid and also the remdesivir. If this works as well, things start to seem a bit less grim."
It seemed to take the medical profession a long time to figure out the benefit of inversion (flipping patients on to their stomachs). I first read about this with a case here in Vegas back in March. I forget which hospital but it was one of the Summerlyn Hospitals. A middle aged man, I am going to say late 40's early 50's was basically a goner. They had all but given up, when the doctor decided to flip him onto his stomach. He improved greatly within 2 days and made a full recovery. Apparently relieves pressure on the damaged lungs.
When I got sick in April, just in case I went down hill quickly as some people do, I had instructed my brother and had written instructions, to invert me onto my stomach before using a ventilator. I had a view that they were putting people on ventilators too quickly, before it was necessary and I wanted that to be a last resort. Luckily I never got close to that point, but just my being prepared and having a plan, nature.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1234480
If that bears out it’s really good news overall. Though many new stories are claiming the opposite.
Quote: unJonCDC reporting that coronavirus cases likely ten times higher than reported.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1234480
If that bears out it’s really good news overall. Though many new stories are claiming the opposite.
This would be quite good news if there was a substantial, long-lasting kind of immunity conferred from having had it. Without a sense of that, hard to tell if it's good or bad news. If it's true that conferred immunity is only 30 or 60 days, then it's ominous as the amount of virus in the community is monstrous, and people may get it again.
Quote: redietzThis would be quite good news if there was a substantial, long-lasting kind of immunity conferred from having had it. Without a sense of that, hard to tell if it's good or bad news. If it's true that conferred immunity is only 30 or 60 days, then it's ominous as the amount of virus in the community is monstrous, and people may get it again.
I agree with both your points. Though it’s unmitigated good news on the virulence of the virus, if true.
Earliest estimates were based on cruise ships and such.
One thought, as medical knowledge and treatments improve, the mortality rate should tend downward.
Mortality rate should trend down for three pretty obvious reasons:
1) It's not in virus's best interests to kill their hosts. So somewhat less virulent versions should outperform virulent ones.
2) Many of the people who died early on were the most vulnerable. So by definition, rates should go down because the most likely to die have already died.
3) Health professionals figure out what works best.
Quote: redietzMany of the epidemiological estimates have been 1 to 1.2 percent. Out of the estimates I've read, most predicted 10 times as deadly as normal flu, which is seemingly the case at this point.
Mortality rate should trend down for three pretty obvious reasons:
1) It's not in virus's best interests to kill their hosts. So somewhat less virulent versions should outperform virulent ones.
2) Many of the people who died early on were the most vulnerable. So by definition, rates should go down because the most likely to die have already died.
3) Health professionals figure out what works best.
I think that #2 may be balanced out by the fact that everyone else who has not died is now almost 6 months older, and hence more vulnerable. Another way too look at it is that each month 50,000 people in the US are diagnosed with cancer -so new "underlying conditions are continuing to emerge.
Quote: billryanWithout being ghoulish, at what point will the deaths begin to affect the Social Security crisis.?
Crisis will soon be over.
Leronlimab is close to ending it.
Hmmm, over half hour discussion of Leronlimab on Dr. Drew show last night.
Starts at 33 minutes but really technical medical discussion.
If it's too much go to 55 minutes and watch four minutes till 59 minute mark
"Leronlimab is the granddaddy of Covid-19 therapuetic"
Nice quote at the 58 minute mark.
Our deadly leaders in DC want to kill the payroll tax that funds SS.
Millions of people will be disabled by COVID-19 and everything is still shutdown and nobody can get a claim in.
Tens of millions will wind up homeless on the streets by Halloween and they'll be getting COVID-19, so we're going straight to apocalypse.
Quote: ChumpChangeSS only gives out a $255 death benefit and subtracts 1 person from the rolls.
Our deadly leaders in DC want to kill the payroll tax that funds SS.
Millions of people will be disabled by COVID-19 and everything is still shutdown and nobody can get a claim in.
Tens of millions will wind up homeless on the streets by Halloween and they'll be getting COVID-19, so we're going straight to apocalypse.
It's been on to apocalypse for you since March! Killing the payroll tax does not affect SS tax. Millions disabled? Source?
But Bill has a good question, I'm sure there has to be a positive monetary effect of all those elderly deaths. Probably offset by less SS taxes taken in by the unemployed.
Quote: DeMangoIt's been on to apocalypse for you since March! Killing the payroll tax does not affect SS tax. Millions disabled? Source?
But Bill has a good question, I'm sure there has to be a positive monetary effect of all those elderly deaths. Probably offset by less SS taxes taken in by the unemployed.
Idk
Seems like a forest for the trees scenario.
I agree SS probably saves a ton of money.
But the government is saddled with hospital bills mounting the hundreds of thousands per patient who died.
Assuming they are uninsured and receive Medicaid/Medicare.
Or the insurance companies which won't surprise me if they ask for some type of government bailout
Quote: darkozIdk
Seems like a forest for the trees scenario.
I agree SS probably saves a ton of money.
But the government is saddled with hospital bills mounting the hundreds of thousands per patient who died.
Assuming they are uninsured and receive Medicaid/Medicare.
Or the insurance companies which won't surprise me if they ask for some type of government bailout
The government pays very few hospital bills. They pay all hospital bills for current and former congressmen and some hospital bills for military veterans, terribly disabled/ill people (Medicaid) and some elderly -through Medicare. But most of Medicare is administered by private Health insurance companies, for a fixed fee ($10,000 per year per patient) provided by the federal government to the health insurance companies.. The private insurance companies are at risk, not Medicare. And believe me, the private insurance companies have the latitude to deny payment, charge deductibles and copays and otherwise assure that they are profiting from again $10,000 per person per year. Medicare is a terribly flawed system.
However, through the Covid stimulus bills, the fedreal governmant does pay hospitals that have covid patients and covid deaths. Which is why hospitals are labeling so many deaths from other causes as having Covid as a possible contribution to death.
And the government also pays for testing.
Quote: gordonm888The government pays very few hospital bills. They pay all hospital bills for current and former congressmen and some hospital bills for military veterans, terribly disabled/ill people (Medicaid) and some elderly -through Medicare. But most of Medicare is administered by private Health insurance companies, for a fixed fee ($10,000 per year per patient) provided by the federal government to the health insurance companies.. The private insurance companies are at risk, not Medicare. And believe me, the private insurance companies have the latitude to deny payment, charge deductibles and copays and otherwise assure that they are profiting from again $10,000 per person per year. Medicare is a terribly flawed system.
However, through the Covid stimulus bills, the fedreal governmant does pay hospitals that have covid patients and covid deaths. Which is why hospitals are labeling so many deaths from other causes as having Covid as a possible contribution to death.
And the government also pays for testing.
I know a lot of people are suspicious that hospitals are jacking up their Covid-19 death counts to profit but it seems like a zero sum situation.
Did a patient who died test positive for Covid-19?
Yes/no.
Unless it's something egregious (like claiming George Floyd died from Covid-19 because he did test positive) then I see very little wiggle room for hospitals to cheat.
A heart attack victim with Covid-19 probably did die because the virus made him less able to survive the heart attack, etc.
Now if there is some claim that hospitals are listing deaths of people who tested negative for Covid-19 just for an added payday that would be horrendous and probably criminal
As things stand, SS will need to reduce benefits about 20% in around 12years. Will the deaths of a half million people affect that? A million? We are at a pace for over 400,000 deaths a year, with no end in sight..
Off the top of my head,I'm thinking the average SS payment must be close to $20,000 a year so the money saved is enormous, but I don't know how it compares to the money paid out. Is it a drop in the bucket or will it make a difference?
While investigating suspicious Covid numbers from local testing sites, a local Orlando TV news report uncovered a case where a man died in a motorcycle accident, but was classified as a Covid death. Officials have since corrected this 'error,' but how many more cases like this are out there? I bet it's not insignificant.Quote: darkozI know a lot of people are suspicious that hospitals are jacking up their Covid-19 death counts to profit but it seems like a zero sum situation.
Did a patient who died test positive for Covid-19?
Yes/no.
Unless it's something egregious (like claiming George Floyd died from Covid-19 because he did test positive) then I see very little wiggle room for hospitals to cheat.
A heart attack victim with Covid-19 probably did die because the virus made him less able to survive the heart attack, etc.
Now if there is some claim that hospitals are listing deaths of people who tested negative for Covid-19 just for an added payday that would be horrendous and probably criminal
Quote: JoemanWhile investigating suspicious Covid numbers from local testing sites, a local Orlando TV news report uncovered a case where a man died in a motorcycle accident, but was classified as a Covid death. Officials have since corrected this 'error,' but how many more cases like this are out there? I bet it's not insignificant.
With almost 150,000 deaths, how do you define insignificant? Is it under one percent? A half of a percent?
Every medical authority I've read says the number of unreported CV deaths is much higher. Deaths at home skyrocketed in NYC earlier this year. Most of them were probably CV deaths but most went unrecorded.
Mistakes will happen. Fraud will happen. With all the people looking into this, the fact that everyone is pointing out the one incident in Florida seems to point to a lack of abuse. I'm sure there are many more such cases, but I doubt they will be statistically signicant.
To illustrate my point- Mycomicshop.com has one of the highest number of negatives of all sellers on eBay. You look at their thousands of negative reviews and wonder why anyone buys from them. Then you see that they are a top-rated seller with 99.6% positive ratings.
When you do 60,000 transactions a month, a few will go wrong.
Quote: billryanQuote: JoemanWhile investigating suspicious Covid numbers from local testing sites, a local Orlando TV news report uncovered a case where a man died in a motorcycle accident, but was classified as a Covid death. Officials have since corrected this 'error,' but how many more cases like this are out there? I bet it's not insignificant.
With almost 150,000 deaths, how do you define insignificant? Is it under one percent? A half of a percent?
Every medical authority I've read says the number of unreported CV deaths is much higher. Deaths at home skyrocketed in NYC earlier this year. Most of them were probably CV deaths but most went unrecorded.
Mistakes will happen. Fraud will happen. With all the people looking into this, the fact that everyone is pointing out the one incident in Florida seems to point to a lack of abuse. I'm sure there are many more such cases, but I doubt they will be statistically signicant.
To illustrate my point- Mycomicshop.com has one of the highest number of negatives of all sellers on eBay. You look at their thousands of negative reviews and wonder why anyone buys from them. Then you see that they are a top-rated seller with 99.6% positive ratings.
When you do 60,000 transactions a month, a few will go wrong.
I didn't know that about mycomicshop.
Been using them almost exclusively for 25 years (only milehighcomics as an occasional alternative).
With so many negative ratings I am now taking my business elsewhere.
J/k. They actually have excellent service. Not going to change my patronage
Quote: billryan
With almost 150,000 deaths, how do you define insignificant? Is it under one percent? A half of a percent?
I think it is insignificant if it is under one percent of the population. So as long as it is under about 3 million people it means nothing to me. I will start to become alarmed when it hits about 3% of the population or around 10 million people in the U.S.
Quote: DRichI think it is insignificant if it is under one percent of the population. So as long as it is under about 3 million people it means nothing to me. I will start to become alarmed when it hits about 3% of the population or around 10 million people in the U.S.
Yeah, significant is in the eye of the beholder. Personally, I never understood all the kerfluffle about 3000 people dying in the Twin Towers or all the hullabaloo about that Oklahoma City bombing blip. Mere bagatelles, my dear, mere bagatelles. Some avoidable catastrophes just aren't worth avoiding. Too much hassle.
I do think it's instructive that DRich left himself an out just in case the highly unlikely happens and 10 million die. Then he'll "start to become alarmed." That's not an indication he'll be alarmed or eventually get to "alarmed," mind you. It's just an indication he'll "start to become alarmed."
Meanwhile, in the real world, Birx was recorded warning about various cities in a group call. Las Vegas was on the list, so I assume there are some pretty bad numbers underlying the city. I happened to notice that Nashville here in Tennessee also made the list. As in Nevada, Tennessee is resisting all manner of pullback or shutdown.
There does not seem to be much control on the "wiggle room" for hospitals. They seem to be doing whatever they please with no real reviews.Quote: darkozUnless it's something egregious (like claiming George Floyd died from Covid-19 because he did test positive) then I see very little wiggle room for hospitals to cheat. A heart attack victim with Covid-19 probably did die because the virus made him less able to survive the heart attack, etc. Now if there is some claim that hospitals are listing deaths of people who tested negative for Covid-19 just for an added payday that would be horrendous and probably criminal
Quote: DeMangoKilling the payroll tax does not affect SS tax. Millions disabled? Source?
Ummm... Wrong!!! The 'payroll tax' IS the social security tax! It is also called FICA, and is 6.2% paid each by employer and employee. On all income up to $137,700. The 'payroll tax break' I believe has only been applied to the employee contribution in the past. By giving another 'payroll tax break' we are just speeding up the path to Social Security insolvency. But we all know that general tax revenue will be used to keep SS afloat, as NO politician will allow it to fail under his or her watch.
As far as Chump's silly comments, I would surmise that more elderly disabled will die from COVID-19 than will be replaced by new disabled from COVID-19. And more elderly deaths removed from SS rolls will have a (very small) positive effect, as less monthly money will be paid out.
Quote: SanchoPanzaThere does not seem to be much control on the "wiggle room" for hospitals. They seem to be doing whatever they please with no real reviews.
Review will come!
I really don't see hospitals doing something egregious when it can be easily caught in review.
Of course there is no accounting for human greed either.
Time will tell
Quote: darkozReview will come!
I really don't see hospitals doing something egregious when it can be easily caught in review.
Of course there is no accounting for human greed either.
Time will tell
IMO, any entity engaging in serious greed or fraud, will pay a price not worth paying if they're caught, just because of what we are dealing with and such a high profile across the world.
I can't imagine the law or the public, or any amount of bribing will save them.
You'll have to be the size of a large country (like China) to survive the fallout.
The fact that people can get debilitated, then get the virus again and be debilitated further, is also ominous.
Probably...…………..?
Quote: rxwineYou guys need to look on the bright side. It probably won't all end in WW3.
Probably...…………..?
What does West World season 3 have to do with it?
I'm still wondering about people who will be permanently damaged from this and even die later from other complications the virus caused.
If it doesn't kill you, but it permanently F''s you up... then that should be a factor regarding how serious it is.
