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Wizard
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Wizard
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May 15th, 2021 at 6:24:57 PM permalink
It's time to move onto our next Bond movie. In keeping with the Chemin de Fer theme, let's jump ahead to Goldeneye.

I'd like to remind the forum that I use lower case to refer to the people playing the game and upper case for the bets.


Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2pCZFpq9aA

Let me address the scene by the time count in the video:

1:11 -- It's a new hand and Bond steps up to the table. He says "banco," indicating he wants to bet the maximum amount against the banker (note the lower case), the villain.
1:34 -- Here the villain refers to the game as "baccarat." It is obviously the same game played in Dr. No and Thunderball. I'm not sure whether to say this is an error, that the name of the game changed between Connery and Brosnan, or that baccarat is more of the English name and Chemin de Fer the French. I welcome comments on this.
1:43 -- The villain beats Bond 7 over 6. This is the first hand, in any movie, we've seen Bond lose at this game, whatever we call it.
1:56 -- Just before the villain says "two." I think this is referring to the maximum amount she will cover. To that, I believe Bond is saying "suivi," which I addressed in my last post. Since he lost the previous hand, he is given the first option to bet the full amount, which he invokes.
2:11 -- In hand #2, Bond, acting first, takes a card, which we see is a 6. Before giving it to him, the Villain exposes her total of 5. I am not sure if this is normal to expose the Banker hand before delivering the third card to the Player hand. I welcome comments on that. The villain with five, knows only one of Bond's cards a 6 and that his other two cards are low enough to warrant hitting. Standing on 5, looking at 6, is a bad decision. There are some borderline plays in Chemin de Fer, but this isn't one of them. I may post again on the expected value of both ways to play in her shoes, which will depend on whether Bond would have hit a 5, but I'm sure it will come out that the odds favor hitting either way.
2:35 -- Bond reveals two face cards, for 6 total points, beating the Villain's 5.

3:52 -- This has nothing to do with gambling, but it adds another one of my interests -- license plates! I do not know if what he said is true or not.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 15th, 2021 at 8:40:48 PM permalink
To reply to my own post, I was right, the villain should definitely have hit that hand.

As stated before, there is free will in Chemin de Fer as long as neither side has a natural.

If two logicians played, then some decisions would be randomized. One of them would be the player hitting of a two-card total of 5.

The following table shows the expected value* of the villains decision, whether she believed Bond would hit or stand on a 5.

Player Hits on 5 Stand EV Hit EV
No -0.640449 -0.390476
Yes -0.640449 -0.290220


The table shows, the villain's EV is greater, whether Bond would hit or stand on a 5.

The mathematics of the scene would have been much more interesting if the villain had a total of 4 and Bond drew a 5.

By the way, if two logicians did play, then the logician not banking should hit a 5 with probability 77.95%.

* Based on infinite decks.

More information: WoO page on Chemin de Fer
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MDawg
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May 15th, 2021 at 11:07:26 PM permalink
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 16th, 2021 at 4:58:38 AM permalink
Do you mean the blonde bending over? Looks like Bond is looking down her dress.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
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May 16th, 2021 at 7:35:52 AM permalink
I've never seen 'Goldeneye' ... probably because I was against Pierce Brosnan being the next James Bond and have never seen more than a few moments of any of them where Brosnan was Bond

Maybe I've reached a stage where I can get over that and start watching those movies. They don't seem to show up on Cable/Satellite though

I'm glad you broke it all down, something about the sound quality ... I could hardly follow conversation at all. Perhaps if I get a chance I can watch it with the sound blasting [uncool at the moment]. But I am missing virtually every nuance now

no answer for you on license plate

what do you think of women smoking cigars? In real life I've gotten quite a kick out of it, if I know them beforehand; in a movie or with a woman I don't know, just doesn't do the same thing for me. Appropriate for a villain perhaps

PS: forming some thoughts generally about Chemin d.f. ... will wait till u finish with all the Bond gambling scenes
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MDawg
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May 16th, 2021 at 8:51:51 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Do you mean the blonde bending over? Looks like Bond is looking down her dress.


I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Gialmere
Gialmere
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May 16th, 2021 at 2:00:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

1:43 -- The villain beats Bond 7 over 6. This is the first hand, in any movie, we've seen Bond lose at this game, whatever we call it.


Bond does lose a hand in OHMSS (although he does leave the table with a much larger stack than what he sat down with).


Quote: Wizard

2:11 -- In hand #2, Bond, acting first, takes a card, which we see is a 6. Before giving it to him, the Villain exposes her total of 5. I am not sure if this is normal to expose the Banker hand before delivering the third card to the Player hand. I welcome comments on that.


This is also what is done in OHMSS.


Quote: Wizard

The villain with five, knows only one of Bond's cards a 6 and that his other two cards are low enough to warrant hitting. Standing on 5, looking at 6, is a bad decision. There are some borderline plays in Chemin de Fer, but this isn't one of them. I may post again on the expected value of both ways to play in her shoes, which will depend on whether Bond would have hit a 5, but I'm sure it will come out that the odds favor hitting either way.


The debate on what to do with a 5 is mentioned in OHMSS.

------------------------------------------

Here's some rules for UK casinos

Two things of interest....

Quote:

There are usually only three stakes made in this game:

• Bank only - The punter plays alone against the banker
• Bank with table - The punter bets half the sum staked by the banker
• Individual player stakes


So here, you can call a "half banco". An interesting option since, depending on where you are relative to the shoe, you would immediately become the dominate player without risking the full Bank amount.


Quote:

Players are free to abide by or ignore the table shown below, known as the "Rule Table". Those who wish to abide by the Rule Table must tell the Croupier who in turn informs the other players.

The Croupier must always indicate "Rule Table" players as if there is a mistake the customer is safeguarded by the regulations, which state that any rounds that do not comply must be reconstructed by the Inspector according to the Rule Table.


So here, someone, I'm assuming the punter playing the Banker hand, declares if the game has complete free will or uses the "house way". Note that the charts still gives the Banker punter a few options. The Player, meanwhile, MUST always stand on 5.

--------------------------------

Quote: MDawg

I've played Chemin de Fer twice in Monaco (Monte Carlo) when visiting there, but when in Europe I am not there to gamble, so it was just for the experience and I don't precisely recall exactly how it worked, but I do believe it was the same as the above stated rules. This "stand or draw" on 5 option is part of the Chemin de Fer plot in On Her Majesty's Secret Service, also in Goldeneye.


[Note the OHMSS mention]

If MDawg is reading this, I'd be interested on his general thoughts about playing the game. Bond films, naturally, make it look glamorous -- a fun and exciting table game for the social gambler. The reality, I suspect, is probably just people sitting around making small bets with few bancos called and even fewer people willing to bank.
Last edited by: Gialmere on May 16, 2021
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 16th, 2021 at 9:14:17 PM permalink
As long as you bring it up, let's discuss the casino scene in On Her Majesty's Secret Service next. Trivia -- This is the only film where Bond gets married.



Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK28sHhh9hI

This confirms what Gialmere says above:

1. The banker does reveal his two-card hand after the player hits.
2. Bond advises Teresa, "Next time play it safe and stand on five." He is referring to her acting first, in the player position.

As I mentioned before, if two perfect logicians played chemin de fer, then the logician to act first would stand on 5 with probability 22.0503%. She should not have been corrected either way, as it becomes a game of rock-paper-scissors with a five, you have to act randomly.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MDawg
MDawg
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May 16th, 2021 at 9:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg


(As well in Europe, they play a more true version of Baccarat where there is some discretion as to drawing cards – the rules allow a player to stand or draw on certain hands. If you have seen On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, you will recall that “Tracy” (Diana Rigg) chooses to draw on five, and draws another five, bringing her to zero, which brings James Bond to advise her to “next time play it safe and stand on five.” (which leads Tracy to comment that, “People who want to stay alive play it safe.”))

I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Gialmere
Gialmere
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May 16th, 2021 at 11:16:22 PM permalink
Evidently there are names for the way punters play a 5.

Quote: Baccarat.net

There’s a choice in Chemin de Fer as the first two cards are dealt face-down so if the Player has a 5, they can use some tactics to throw their opponent off by changing the style of play. Depending on the tactics at the total 5, players can be:


Tireur (shooter in French) – a player who always draws;
Non-tireur – a player who usually stands;
Douteur (doubter) – a player who alternates between drawing and standing.

Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.

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