Cooperation game
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50 members have voted
Quote: PeeMcGeeLet me add some clarity. ...
It’s a prisoner’s dilemma—you can better your personal situation by defecting…but cooperating yields better results for all involved as a whole.
Cheers,
So what you are saying is that if the pickers are choosing randomly 50/50 then it's by far the individual's best option to be a weasel $2 picker.
I feel this will be very close to, and beyond the tipping point where Mike gets to hold on to his money.
| Pick | Count |
|---|---|
| $1 | 22 |
| $2 | 11 |
| Total | 33 |
Well done group. You won a total of $44, which is only $5 less than the maximum you could have won with 33 players of $49. There is obviously a little room for more selfish $2 players.
Round 2 shall begin now. Amounts shall be the same -- $1 and $2. The deadline to submit round 2 picks shall be 9 AM Vegas time on Thursday, August 25.
Of the seven players who didn't submit a pick, I randomly choose 3 (beerseason, MathExtremist, and TwoFeathersATL) to be eliminated and replaced by those on the waiting list: gordonm888, PlayYourCardsRight, CharliePatrick.
May the kibitzing for round 2 begin!
Round 2 player list.
- AxelWolf
- Ayecarumba
- beachbumbabs
- bigfoot66
- blount2000
- Boz
- Canyonero
- CharliePatrick
- Dalex64
- DJTeddyBear
- Doc
- doughtaker
- gamerfreak
- gordonm888
- GWAE
- HeyMrDJ
- Hunterhill
- jml24
- joeman
- Joeshlabotnik
- miplet
- MrGoldenSun
- mrsuit31
- odiousgambit
- OnceDear
- onenickelmiracle
- Paigowdan
- Paradigm
- PeeMcGee
- PlayYourCardsRight
- Romes
- RonC
- RS
- rudeboyoi
- SOOPOO
- theoriemeister
- TomG
- Torghatten
- Wizardofnothing
- wudged
And then I told him the "personal strategy" that I have mentioned in earlier posts. As stated, I will follow that plan unless/until there is some clear organization of this "cooperation" thing.
I will be willing to share the details of my method with the forum after this experiment is over.
Quote: WizardHere are the results of round 1 of the 33 who submitted a pick.
Pick Count $1 22 $2 11 Total 33
Well done group. You won a total of $44, which is only $5 less than the maximum you could have won with 33 players of $49. There is obviously a little room for more selfish $2 players.
Well done everyone!
Quote: OnceDearCheers,
So what you are saying is that if the pickers are choosing randomly 50/50 then it's by far the individual's best option to be a weasel $2 picker.
I feel this will be very close to, and beyond the tipping point where Mike gets to hold on to his money.
Correct.
And even if you are dealing with an aggressive/self-interested crowd, selecting $1 will only increase your expected value by fractions of a cent at most.
So in a nutshell…it’s just better for you to pick $2.
But if everyone does what is in their best self-interest, then the group will suffer.
It’s a very interesting problem.
Quote: PeeMcGeeQuote: WizardWell done group.
Well done everyone!
Yayyyy. Way to go.
OK...... So, my best strategy, short of joining a VERY honest, trustworthy team would be for me to bid $2.
I could have done so last time and would have got away with it.
I was thinking that after openly bidding $1 last time and probably being suspected of being a lying rat, then I planned to openly bid $2 this time.
The maths says that I should now bid $2
The precedent says that I should now bid $2
AP gut says that I should now bid $2
Wanting to be seen to be honest, if a little selfish says that I should now bid $2
.
.
.
I'm therefore ACTUALLY going to bid $1 again.
Quote: OnceDearYayyyy. Way to go.
OK...... So, my best strategy, short of joining a VERY honest, trustworthy team would be for me to bid $2.
I could have done so last time and would have got away with it.
I was thinking that after openly bidding $1 last time and probably being suspected of being a lying rat, then I planned to openly bid $2 this time.
The maths says that I should now bid $2
The precedent says that I should now bid $2
AP gut says that I should now bid $2
Wanting to be seen to be honest, if a little selfish says that I should now bid $2
.
.
.
I'm therefore ACTUALLY going to bid $1 again.
I feel the same way, all this $2 talk has me nervous. I'm going with $1 today.
Quote: gamerfreakQuote: OnceDearYayyyy. Way to go.
I'm therefore ACTUALLY going to bid $1 again.
I feel the same way, all this $2 talk has me nervous. I'm going with $1 today.
Quite so. That was my thinking. It will encourage the rats to mess it up for us.
anyway.....
I shall repeat the same procedure for the second round, shuffling the pack, drawing a card and sending a message. As an additional bit of trivia the pack used is a used pack from the Bellagio.Quote: charliepatrickI used a pack of cards to make my selection to obtain P($2)=1/3 and P($1)=2/3. Spades=$2, Red=$1, Clubs=redraw. I believe, played cooperatively, this is the best way to play.
I have sent the card drawn and my selection to the wizard.
Damned good question!Quote: GWAESo people see there was room for more 2s, does that mean more people go towards 2 this time. Hmmm, or does everyone have this same thought and everyone goes with 1.
Are we great individuals or are we a great society?
Which do we aspire to be?
Which SHOULD we aspire to be? . . . Especially when it's either/or.
I reckon that the aggregate result that first time was EXCELLENT. Much more altruism than expected and a pat on the back for all who took part. Odd that 7 didn't get their bids in.
Guys.... Let's not mess this up. Accept the weasels who say they must bid $2. Accept the rats who lie that they will bid $1. BID $1 or be a $2 weasel. Don't be a rat.
IF there is a round three, then I'm thinking of offering an even money side bet at higher stakes as to what my third bid has been, after I've placed it. Anyone likely to be up for that when the time comes?
So my new strategy is to keep bidding $1 cooperatively in order that Romes will be able to parlay a bet. I can't see the Wizard starting to dump hundreds on this game, so I don't think that will change. But if I am wrong and I can start to smell a twenty , I might renege and try to get one for my coffers ..... wuh ha ha ha haaaa
*I can distinctly remember as a young man "going all week" on $20, paying cash for everything, as carrying-around money anyway
Quote: odiousgambitI think the threshold for me *caring* about the difference between winning $1 or winning $2 depends on winning about $20
So ODG, when it comes to round 3 will you be interested in staking $20 at even money on what I have bid there?
Can you read my character? Read my mind across an ocean?
:o)
My first weekly full time pay cheque was just over £19 four or so decades ago.
Put me on the waiting list pls. 2F
I think that our relatively altruistic group score may have had more to do with the fact that the amounts are trivial than any inherent nobility on our part. If we were talking about $1000 vs. $2000, I would expect a lot more selfishness. Also, as the rewards for screwing over one's fellow man become greater, the more likely a given person is to engage in such behavior. Heck, we had gun battles in gas lines not so long ago. Make a resource valuable and scarce enough, and many people--I daresay MOST people--would cheerfully shoot their grandmothers to get it. Imagine the violence that will erupt over the world's last Twinkie, for example. I'd like to think that everybody would link hands in a circle and go all nicey-poo, singing inspirational songs, but if anything, recent political and geopolitical events convince me that the world of Mad Max is, if anything, an understatement of mankind's future.
So Wizard, please fund the next round to the extent that we can bid $1000 or $2000, in order to create a really meaningful social experiment.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikSo Wizard, please fund the next round to the extent that we can bid $1000 or $2000, in order to create a really meaningful social experiment.
I wouldn't expect Mike to bankroll that. Imagine now if the wager had an entry fee and the payments came out of that. I've already suggested that to Mike, but it might fall foul of some dumb-ass gaming law.
For the third round (assuming there is one), consider this:
As a recreational AP, I will always make the choice that has the most EV. As it stands, this is always picking $2. If however, a strategy is devised that changes that (such strategies exists and one possible such strategy is known to me), I will again make the pick that maximises my EV (which may involve an element of randomization). This may also mean following team strategy, if that maximises my EV.
For EV considerations, I will assume that such a strategy is employed by 30 players if at least 15 players commit to such a strategy before round 3 starts.
----
There was some talk about "rats", which made no sense game theory wise. There is no incentive to being a rat. I someone were to lie about their $2 pick in an otherwise perfect game, the rat would just give up $1 in EV since it would make all the players lose including themselves.
Quote: Joeshlabotnik
So Wizard, please fund the next round to the extent that we can bid $1000 or $2000, in order to create a really meaningful social experiment.
I am playing the game the exact same way I would for higher stakes, that is what makes it fun. I hope most others are as well.
Quote: CanyoneroThere was some talk about "rats", which made no sense game theory wise. There is no incentive to being a rat. I someone were to lie about their $2 pick in an otherwise perfect game, the rat would just give up $1 in EV since it would make all the players lose including themselves.
Ah,
BUT, part of the strategy of the 'team players' must be to assume that some member of the team might lie to take advantage of an undeclared $1 bidding non-team member. I.e NOT an otherwise perfect game.
It's more fun with variables and mavericks.
Put me on the waiting list pls. 2F
Quote: CanyoneroI am playing the game the exact same way I would for higher stakes, that is what makes it fun. I hope most others are as well.
I presume that just about everyone would play the game differently if something actually important/vital was at stake, just the way I would expect people to play differently in a poker tournament if the first prize was $10,000 as opposed to $10.
Of course, some people would indeed not care, yourself among them, as you say. But game theory is an exploration of decisions and risk vs. reward calculations. If the risk and the reward are both trivial, then it really isn't a valid test of human behavior.
I think what we need is a rethinking of incentives. How about this: if the percentage of people going for $2 is over 50%, we'll kill this puppy, but everyone who opted for $2 gets a Caesar's buffet comp.
a) Awww. Poor little guy. I'll order Chinese.
b) Screw the stupid mutt. They have awesome prime rib.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikHow about this: if the percentage of people going for $2 is over 50%, we'll kill this puppy, but everyone who opted for $2 gets a Caesar's buffet comp.
a) Awww. Poor little guy. I'll order Chinese.
b) Screw the stupid mutt. They have awesome prime rib.
Could we eat the puppy, rather than waste it's short, sorry life?
See your $1, raise you $2.Quote: mrsuit31$1...
Did we start a different game ;-?
Quote: TwoFeathersATLSee your $1, raise you $2.
Did we start a different game ;-?
Indeed we did...
Quote: WizardHere are the results of round 1 of the 33 who submitted a pick.
Pick Count $1 22 $2 11 Total 33
Well done group. You won a total of $44, which is only $5 less than the maximum you could have won with 33 players of $49. There is obviously a little room for more selfish $2 players.
Round 2 shall begin now. Amounts shall be the same -- $1 and $2. The deadline to submit round 2 picks shall be 9 AM Vegas time on Thursday, August 25.
Of the seven players who didn't submit a pick, I randomly choose 3 (beerseason, MathExtremist, and TwoFeathersATL) to be eliminated and replaced by those on the waiting list: gordonm888, PlayYourCardsRight, CharliePatrick.
May the kibitzing for round 2 begin!
Round 2 player list.
- AxelWolf
- Ayecarumba
- beachbumbabs
- bigfoot66
- blount2000
- Boz
- Canyonero
- CharliePatrick
- Dalex64
- DJTeddyBear
- Doc
- doughtaker
- gamerfreak
- gordonm888
- GWAE
- HeyMrDJ
- Hunterhill
- jml24
- joeman
- Joeshlabotnik
- miplet
- MrGoldenSun
- mrsuit31
- odiousgambit
- OnceDear
- onenickelmiracle
- Paigowdan
- Paradigm
- PeeMcGee
- PlayYourCardsRight
- Romes
- RonC
- RS
- rudeboyoi
- SOOPOO
- theoriemeister
- TomG
- Torghatten
- Wizardofnothing
- wudged
And it looks like you've been taken off the cool kid list. That means you can't have anymore punch :(
#NoFeathers
Quote: JoeshlabotnikBut game theory is an exploration of decisions and risk vs. reward calculations. If the risk and the reward are both trivial, then it really isn't a valid test of human behavior.
Ditto. And for me, if it were 'real' money, I'd feel bad about taking it from Mike. I might play differently if some big corporation (Facebook, eg.) were putting up the money.
I am committing my $1 winnings from Round 1 to the Romes Long Shot Challenge...who is with me in pooling those doll hairs together?
Romes I am trusting you on this ;-)!!
This game kinda reminds me this joke (per reddit, where I just googled it, heard it from somewhere else before though) --
Quote: redditA young boy enters a barber shop..
...and the barber whispers to his customer, “This is the dumbest kid in the world. Watch while I prove it to you.”
The barber puts a dollar bill in one hand and two quarters in the other, then calls the boy over and asks, “Which do you want, son?” The boy takes the quarters and leaves.
“What did I tell you?” said the barber. “That kid never learns!”
Later, when the customer leaves, he sees the same young boy coming out of the ice cream store.
“Hey, son! May I ask you a question?
Why did you take the quarters instead of the dollar bill?”
The boy licked his cone and replied,
“Because the day I take the dollar, the game is over!”
Maybe if we all vote for $2 [or max amount] all the time, Mike will think we're all stupid idiots, and he'll keep raising the stakes, until it's at like $1k / $2k, then we all agree to maximize our EV and do 19x$2k and 21x$1k and win lots of dineros.
I'm not in on a -EV long shot. Why not put it on a +EV 1/2 parlay card? I would've been in on putting it in on something like that Lion share machine and then if it happened to hit sending people a w2g. I'm willing to go with someone and investing it in a loss rebate. I'm sure someone in that group is coming to Vegas. I am certain I can grow the investment. perhaps a LVA coupon book or something.Quote: ParadigmI have submitted $1 for round 2.
I am committing my $1 winnings from Round 1 to the Romes Long Shot Challenge...who is with me in pooling those doll hairs together?
Romes I am trusting you on this ;-)!!
Maybe a +EV $1 progressive.
Definitely no slots or VP for roams(he knows why).
Rigondeaux didn't play however he's really good at finding + EV sports stuff(IE Irregular lines) . I'm sure he wouldn't mind.
Although, it appears that ME is out for Round 2. But, based on this post:Quote: mrsuit31List so far:
Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
MathExtremist
doughtaker
miplet
Axelwolf
bigfoot66
gamerfreak
non team members:
soopoo
oncedear (for now)
tomG
Gwae
BBB
Canyonero
That's almost half....
It looks like SOOPOO is on the team now. So, I believe the current list looks like this:Quote: SOOPOOI am giving my proxy to Romes. He seems best suited to lead this motley crew. Awaiting instruction for Round 2 from King Romes.
Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
doughtaker
miplet
Axelwolf
bigfoot66
gamerfreak
SOOPOO
non team members:
oncedear (for now)
tomG
Gwae
BBB
Canyonero
We weren't far off our Max EV for the round, so even though Mike is using subliminal messaging to try to coerce more $2 bets, we need to stick to the game plan! Keep on betting $1 and we'll keep on cleaning house, THEN LET IT ALL RIDE!
Ha, I'm still 100% in for this. I just submitted my $1 pick. Let's do it a couple more times! Hell, a $100 parlay could yield us enough money to really throw a party in Vegas with hookers and blow (lol).Quote: ParadigmI have submitted $1 for round 2.
I am committing my $1 winnings from Round 1 to the Romes Long Shot Challenge...who is with me in pooling those doll hairs together?
Romes I am trusting you on this ;-)!!
All subject to group opinion/approval, of course... Just throwing the idea out of playing a parlay to take a shot at winning some "real" cash that we could all actually use for a WOV meetup.Quote: GWAEWhy does it have to be a long shot. Wouldn't it be better to do either a 3 team parlay or bet 75% on a nice favorite. Do that 3 or 4 times. If we lose, we still have the 25% for a long shot that will still yield nice.
Quote: ParadigmI have submitted $1 for round 2.
I am committing my $1 winnings from Round 1 to the Romes Long Shot Challenge...who is with me in pooling those doll hairs together?
Romes I am trusting you on this ;-)!!
I'm with Romes. As long as I can say "$5 winna" when we win. Romes will understand that.
I also submitted one dollar.
Quote: IndyJeffreyRats! I'm just seeing this now? Too late to join?
You can be put on the waiting list. You would likely be in for round 3.
Quote: WizardYou can be put on the waiting list. You would likely be in for round 3.
Perfect. Thank you.
Instead of randomly picking people to be out to let new people in it would be much more interesting to let us Vote people out for the the next round along with out bid.Quote: Wizard
If you can get 50 people why not just let all 50 in?
I can think of 2 or 3 people who would probably partisipate they just haven't read this thread yet I don't think.
Haha, this would be the true essance of "$5 winna!" if we could parlay it in to some decent coin =D.Quote: mrsuit31I'm with Romes. As long as I can say "$5 winna" when we win. Romes will understand that.
I also submitted one dollar.
A simple solution is this: If you're in on the last round, you're in on the pool. This will encourage people not to drop out or go MIA. If they do, then they miss out on the parlay action!Quote: GWAERomes, one issue might be the amount of people and people joining and getting kicked out. Also what if one person played 1 round and me and you played 10 (I have no clue how many there will be) do we break it into shares or is it just even?
Spectacular... and let's keep the $1 bids going guys! What kind of money is the best money? FREE money!Quote: rudeboyoiIm not on the team list. Add me to the team list. I just picked a $1 again and took a screenshot. I think doing the 1/2pt parlay cards with the pool at the end would be best. No one wants pocket change. Might as well try to hit a +EV longshot.
Quote: RomesSpectacular... and let's keep the $1 bids going guys! What kind of money is the best money? FREE money!
I will once again submit my bid as $1, and would like to participate in the pool/parlay.
Quote: RomesHaha, this would be the true essance of "$5 winna!" if we could parlay it in to some decent coin =D.
A simple solution is this: If you're in on the last round, you're in on the pool. This will encourage people not to drop out or go MIA. If they do, then they miss out on the parlay action!
Spectacular... and let's keep the $1 bids going guys! What kind of money is the best money? FREE money!
Not so sure that is the simple solution. What if I do 17 weeks and something messes me up on week 18 and I get chosen to be knocked out. Then I am not in? However I guess at that point I can just keep my $24 and not be part of the group? And if someone only plus week 20, they get to be part of a $300 parlay with only $1 invest where I have $24 invested? Not trying to be a downer, just like to have things planned in advance to avoid issues 3 months from now.
Who decides which paray we do? Let wizard decide? Does he even want invloved with that since he already has trouble getting all the money he wants down?
Quote: GWAENot so sure that is the simple solution. What if I do 17 weeks and something messes me up on week 18 and I get chosen to be knocked out. Then I am not in? However I guess at that point I can just keep my $24 and not be part of the group? And if someone only plus week 20, they get to be part of a $300 parlay with only $1 invest where I have $24 invested? Not trying to be a downer, just like to have things planned in advance to avoid issues 3 months from now.
Who decides which paray we do? Let wizard decide? Does he even want invloved with that since he already has trouble getting all the money he wants down?
We could realistically get a breakdown of who was involved in what rounds from the Wiz and figure out how much winnings they are entitled to from the rounds they participated in. Thereafter, everyone would get their proper share/percentage of the winnings, if they opted in to the Romes Parlayage action. Not that crazy to do, and realistically, if we get to that point it would be a worthwhile amount of winnings.
