Thread Rating:

Poll

17 votes (34%)
12 votes (24%)
1 vote (2%)
5 votes (10%)
5 votes (10%)
6 votes (12%)
3 votes (6%)
7 votes (14%)
3 votes (6%)
1 vote (2%)

50 members have voted

Joeman
Joeman
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August 17th, 2016 at 6:38:55 AM permalink
As I said before, I would like to take part, but I'm not sure I will be near a computer this weekend (and I don't own a smart phone).

Quote: Wizard

Don't let being out of town prevent you from joining. It won't ruin things if you skip rounds from time to time.

If you are saying that you wouldn't mind a possible "no vote" from me for Round 1, then I would like to declare myself "in." I will do my best to submit a vote this weekend, but no guarantees.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Doc
Doc
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August 17th, 2016 at 7:14:13 AM permalink
I think most any of us could come up with a near-optimal strategy for any round, assuming 100% collusion and 100% cooperation. The trickier parts are (1) when fewer than all are teamed, (2) when there is distrust, and (3) when the potential for additional rounds may be affected by the outcome of the round (such as in keeping the host/sponsor interested in continuing.)

Under the opposite assumptions of no collusion, no basis for trust or distrust, and a possibility but no assurance of additional rounds, I think I have developed a personal "strategy." It isn't among the poll options.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
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August 17th, 2016 at 7:24:11 AM permalink
I'm in. I haven't read the whole thread, so I assume this is the way you join the game, let me know if not.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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August 17th, 2016 at 8:09:53 AM permalink
I'm in.
I am a robot.
TomG
TomG
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August 17th, 2016 at 8:44:16 AM permalink
I'll play

The correct strategy is to commit to picking $2 but willing to change if someone pays you to switch
Canyonero
Canyonero
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:32:48 AM permalink
I am in.

Also, I hereby state that my pick will be $2. This will not change. I will not return to this thread or read PMs until the game has ended.

(I call that the Doomsday Device Option)
wudged
wudged
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:44:40 AM permalink
I'm in if 40 hasn't been hit yet
Romes
Romes
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:55:29 AM permalink
I think I might squeek in? I'm IN, if there's room!

Are we allowed to discuss amongst each other now?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:09:50 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I think I might squeek in? I'm IN, if there's room!

Are we allowed to discuss amongst each other now?



On page one of the thread, wiz said we can start talkin now.

Since my plan requires everyone to coordinate then that is basically out the window. However, once we know who the folks are that will not act as a team to optimize out winnings (and to guarantee a win) we can organize around those people, if the remaining folks would like to enter a voting agreement.
.
Romes
Romes
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:13:17 AM permalink
Let's get maximum EV

We could arrange for 21 people to say $1, then 19 people to say $2... then we would have $59 to split amongst us 40 people for EV = $1.475.

This way almost everyone is getting paid blackjack (3:2) =D.

[EDIT]THEN we start a pole in another thread about what sporting event / long shot to bet it on... Parlaying our $59 to something like $1k, where we can either parlay it again, or reap the rewards! This plan sounds too fun NOT to do... come on guys!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizard
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Are we allowed to discuss amongst each other now?



You're in. Yes, please do start talking now.

We're at 34. Just six more and we can official open round 1.

Players so far: SOOPOO, RS, Ayecarumba, Hunterhill, Paigowdan, beachbumbabs, odiousgambit, blount2000, RonC, GWAE, OnceDear, Paradigm, HeyMrDJ, Doc, mrsuit31, Joeshlabotnik, Wizardofnothing, theoriemeister, bigfoot66, miplet, gamerfreak, jml24, rudeboyoi, doughtaker, Torghatten, AxelWolf, Dalex64, joeman, MrGoldenSun, onenickelmiracle, TomG, Canyonero, wudged, Romes
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gamerfreak
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:16:43 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

...the odds of getting everyone set up to do this? Yeah, I think that's what the Wiz is betting on =P.


Exactly. And this is why I think we should go with a basic strategy of EVERYONE voting $1, no exceptions. Yes there will be defectors, but my hope is that 51% of us will have the sense to get some EV out of this instead of 0.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:17:15 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Let's get maximum EV

We could arrange for 21 people to say $1, then 19 people to say $2... then we would have $59 to split amongst us 40 people for EV = $1.475.

This way almost everyone is getting paid blackjack (3:2) =D.

[EDIT]THEN we start a pole in another thread about what sporting event / long shot to bet it on... Parlaying our $59 to something like $1k, where we can either parlay it again, or reap the rewards! This plan sounds too fun NOT to do... come on guys!



That was my original plan on page two. However, some say they won't alter their bet regardless of anything.

We can figure out those $2 folks and work together otherwise. Realistically out group bottom line won't be effected much as a result of the few non team members
.
Romes
Romes
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:17:42 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You're in. Yes, please do start talking now.

We're at 34. Just six more and we can official open round 1.

Players so far: SOOPOO, RS, Ayecarumba, Hunterhill, Paigowdan, beachbumbabs, odiousgambit, blount2000, RonC, GWAE, OnceDear, Paradigm, HeyMrDJ, Doc, mrsuit31, Joeshlabotnik, Wizardofnothing, theoriemeister, bigfoot66, miplet, gamerfreak, jml24, rudeboyoi, doughtaker, Torghatten, AxelWolf, Dalex64, joeman, MrGoldenSun, onenickelmiracle, TomG, Canyonero, wudged, Romes

When we hit 40 people, I suggest the order the Wizard puts the names in will be our order... The first 19 people all say $2... the next 21 people all say $1....

Then we tell the Wiz to bet our $59 on something we take a poll on! FREE ROLL TO THE MILLIONS WITH ME GUYS.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:18:21 AM permalink
Who is willing to work together on this? Let's put a list together and work from there...
.
Romes
Romes
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:22:49 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Who is willing to work together on this? Let's put a list together and work from there...

Take the Wiz's list, in the same order, and put a (*) next to their name if they're willing to cooperate.

(I know what you're up to Mike. You know the bad players will say "yes" then not cooperate)... The failures of the Honor System.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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August 17th, 2016 at 10:28:52 AM permalink
if there are people who will select $2 no matter what, then at least half of us should select $2 so no one gets any money until they change their mind.

alternative doomsday option.
RS
RS
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August 17th, 2016 at 11:04:50 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Let's get maximum EV

We could arrange for 21 people to say $1, then 19 people to say $2... then we would have $59 to split amongst us 40 people for EV = $1.475.

This way almost everyone is getting paid blackjack (3:2) =D.

[EDIT]THEN we start a pole in another thread about what sporting event / long shot to bet it on... Parlaying our $59 to something like $1k, where we can either parlay it again, or reap the rewards! This plan sounds too fun NOT to do... come on guys!




blount2000
blount2000
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August 17th, 2016 at 11:08:16 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Who is willing to work together on this? Let's put a list together and work from there...


I will cooperate.
You serious, Clark?
Joeman
Joeman
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August 17th, 2016 at 11:19:27 AM permalink
Count me in for working together.

This strategy assumes a 40-person pool, and multiple rounds: First, there must be one designated "low amount" voter, and one designated "abstainer" (who does not vote). The remaining people divide evenly into 19 "low amount" voters, and 19 "high amount" voters. This will produce a 20-19 win for the team, and net a total of $58 for Round 1.

After each successful win by the team, everyone switches their vote for the next round. If you voted the higher amount for Round 1, you vote the lower amount for Round 2, and vice-versa. The two designated positions would switch their roles as well. This would require some set-up before Round 1, but after that, no more communication is necessary, as long as the participants remain the same.

This should produce maximum EV, and a fairly equitable distribution. Also, I think it will help keep people "honest." If it's your turn to vote low, and you vote high, you get $0, absolutely 100% guaranteed. Note that an unsuccessful round means no switching for the next round.

As a show of solidarity, I will volunteer for one of the designated positions.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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August 17th, 2016 at 11:21:19 AM permalink
Quote: blount2000

I will cooperate.



Lets try and keep a running tally then. anyone can update the list at any time, as we all have our respective things to do during the day.

Right now it seems that the people on board are:

Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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August 17th, 2016 at 3:58:07 PM permalink
I like to hear talk of randomization strategies, and personally think that is a good solution.

Upon request, I will provide a randomly sorted list of players at the start of each round. You guys can do with it what you wish.

Still looking for six more and we can get on with this.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 17th, 2016 at 4:44:10 PM permalink
Thanks to the link at DT, I finally opened this thread. Sigh, I thought this was gonna be about higher mathematics and be over my head.

Bottom line: I'm in!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RS
RS
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August 17th, 2016 at 4:58:30 PM permalink
Can I reserve 4 of the 6 open spots? Thanks.
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
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August 17th, 2016 at 5:06:44 PM permalink
I will cooperate
Vote for Nobody 2020!
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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August 17th, 2016 at 5:07:19 PM permalink
As requested, I'll play and I pick $1.

Or, if communication is allowed, why doesn't that include forming a cartel and gaming the system? The optimal strategy would be to contractually obligate everyone who plays to pick a centrally-determined amount, with the prize for success is an equal share of the pot and the penalty for failure (through breach) is covering the expected loss. So if 10 people play, optimal strategy is 6 pick $1, 4 pick $2, there's 14 in the pot so each share is $1.40. Someone assigns each player one of the picks and either the players stick to the deal, in which case they split the $14, or at least one player bungs it up. Those one or more players are on the hook for $1.40 to everyone else.

If that's not what you meant, what am I missing?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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August 17th, 2016 at 5:11:10 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

As requested, I'll play and I pick $1.



Thank you. Four more to go.

As a reminder, I'm not accepting picks under I get 40 players or the deadline on Friday, whichever happens first. If you already submitted a pick, you'll have to do so again after round 1 begins.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Boz
Boz
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August 17th, 2016 at 5:17:57 PM permalink
Count me in!
beerseason
beerseason
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August 17th, 2016 at 6:24:30 PM permalink
I'm in.
Wizard
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August 17th, 2016 at 6:45:04 PM permalink
Quote: beerseason

I'm in.



Thanks. Two more to go.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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August 17th, 2016 at 7:29:28 PM permalink
Put Two Feathers down as in.

That should screw up the whole thing ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Wizard
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August 17th, 2016 at 8:57:57 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Put Two Feathers down as in.

That should screw up the whole thing ;-)



You don't confuse me. Just one more.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
PeeMcGee
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August 17th, 2016 at 9:23:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You don't confuse me. Just one more.


I値l play.

And I'm fairly confident we can get maximum EV on this guys :)
doughtaker
doughtaker
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:03:25 AM permalink
I'd be willing to cooperate on a coordinated group strategy. Perhaps a separate poll/thread should be set up with the good strategies presented so far and then the players vote on which one we'll go with through however many rounds this game lasts for. I personally like the strategies that Joeman and MathExtremist have offered up.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 3:55:46 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

... the penalty for failure (through breach) is covering the expected loss. ..., what am I missing?


Ah! But the individual bid value is to be kept secret :o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
seven
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August 18th, 2016 at 4:11:16 AM permalink
I am in but not sure if there are already 40
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:05:04 AM permalink
Quote: seven

I am in but not sure if there are already 40



We are at 40! Here is the player list in alphabetical order: AxelWolf, Ayecarumba, beachbumbabs, beerseason, bigfoot66, blount2000, Boz, Canyonero, Dalex64, DJTeddyBear, Doc, doughtaker, gamerfreak, GWAE, HeyMrDJ, Hunterhill, jml24, joeman, Joeshlabotnik, MathExtremist, miplet, MrGoldenSun, mrsuit31, odiousgambit, OnceDear, onenickelmiracle, Paigowdan, Paradigm, PeeMcGee, Romes, RonC, RS, rudeboyoi, SOOPOO, theoriemeister, TomG, Torghatten, TwoFeathersATL, Wizardofnothing, wudged.

The deadline to submit your first picks will 9 AM Pacific time on Sunday, Aug 21. Picks must be sent by PM. For about the fifth time, those of you who submitted picks before this posting will have to resubmit them.

May the games begin!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
GWAE
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:29:03 AM permalink
I am going with $2, fyi
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:45:26 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I am going with $2, fyi



You can post whatever you wish but I'm not accepting that unless it is sent by Private Message.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Joeman
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:47:36 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Lets try and keep a running tally then. anyone can update the list at any time, as we all have our respective things to do during the day.

Right now it seems that the people on board are:


Looks like ME & DT can be added to the list:

Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
MathExtremist
doughtaker

Maybe PeeMcGee also?

BTW, I'll most likely not be able to check in with WoV starting this afternoon through the end of the contest. I'll go ahead and vote $1 if you want to include that in our strategy.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Doc
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:49:18 AM permalink
Well, I have a first bid in mind, based on my previously-mentioned personal strategy, but I'll hold off on submitting anything by PM to see what happens with efforts toward collusion.
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:12:41 AM permalink
We need to get an official head count of who is on board with the team and them also make not of people who have to vote certain way due to unavailability or simply wont bend from he $2. Thereafter, we will determine who will do the $2 and $1 from our group also taking into account the non group members.
.
Romes
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:16:43 AM permalink
I'm still in for collusion/team work! Again, what are you guys gonna do, have the Wiz pay pal you $1 or $2?

Why not just all agree to make $59 and then do the proper thing (considering this is a gambling site) and BLOW it all on a long shot to make $$$?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Joeman
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:27:25 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I'm still in for collusion/team work! Again, what are you guys gonna do, have the Wiz pay pal you $1 or $2?

Why not just all agree to make $59 and then do the proper thing (considering this is a gambling site) and BLOW it all on a long shot to make $$$?

Wiz hinted that there may be more rounds than just this one. I assume he will put our "winnings" on account until the whole experiment is over.

That said, I agree with you, Romes; if the total ends up being just a few bucks each, I'm all for pooling it all on a long shot!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Romes
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:29:00 AM permalink
If we can get together like $100 and put it on a long shot... This is a chance for hookers and blow, guys.

...collude for the hookers and blow.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
miplet
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:44:43 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

If we can get together like $100 and put it on a long shot... This is a chance for hookers and blow, guys.

...collude for the hookers and blow.


I'm in for culluding. 💵💵💵💵
溺an Babes #AxelFabulous
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:11:26 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

I'm in for culluding. 💵💵💵💵



Is that a portmanteau from "colluding" and "cuddling," meaning a group effort with the goal of obtaining affectionate hookers? If so, call Merriam-Webster!
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:27:33 AM permalink
I'm in for pretending Mike is the casino and AP'ING him. I will assume we ARE all HONRABLE gambler's and or advantage player's. I'm not sure if Mike will announce who did what after the contest is over. That way we can find out who the sneaky unhonrable greedy bastards are. I'm willing to take a screen shot of my PM and Bid I send to Mike. As a matter of fact that's what we should all do anyways. That way we will know for sure who is picking what. We can all go in alabetical order, take a screen shot and post it. Anyone not willing to do so we should just consider them to be rogue.

I'm also all for using the winnings during football season and putting it all in on a +EV 1/2 point parlay. Mike does that anyways so it wouldn't be much of a problem(if we ask nicely). Or making a bunch of smaller parlays all season long.

PS. we must also factor in someone simply just FING up.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:34:10 AM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Is that a portmanteau from "colluding" and "cuddling," meaning a group effort with the goal of obtaining affectionate hookers? If so, call Merriam-Webster!

I don't know if you are in but I'm just assuming you will go rogue. I would vote you off the island first.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Doc
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:36:12 AM permalink
I suspect that the"long shot" would be Romes getting the entire group of 40 to agree to wager together on anything, particularly if it involved hookers and blow.
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