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50 members have voted

AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:03:14 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

I suspect that the"long shot" would be Romes getting the entire group of 40 to agree to wager together on anything, particularly if it involved hookers and blow.

I do think it will be next to impossible to get all 40 people to do what's needed to get maximum value. However I think we will have enough cooperation to get the cash. My concern is there's always a few bad apple's who just like to be difficult and muck stuff up, kinda like forever trolls.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:06:14 AM permalink
Sometime on Friday and Saturday I will submit a choice of $2. If I receive pm or pms offering me cash I would be willing to change to $1. The total offers must exceed a predetermined and undisclosed amount I have decided (somewhere between $0.01 and $0.99).

I joined when this was still called Game Theory, not Cooperation, so I'm playing under the spirit of the original title.
gamerfreak
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:06:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I do think it will be next to impossible to get all 40 people to do what's needed to get maximum value. However I think we will have enough cooperation to get the cash. My concern is there's always a few bad apple's who just like to be difficult and muck stuff up, kinda like forever trolls.


I'm down to co-op

I think we should set it up so it leaves some buffer for the liars and cheats among us. It won't be maximum EV, but it could be better than 0.
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:20:02 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I do think it will be next to impossible to get all 40 people to do what's needed to get maximum value. However I think we will have enough cooperation to get the cash. My concern is there's always a few bad apple's who just like to be difficult and muck stuff up, kinda like forever trolls.


I'll put it on record that for the first round, I'm going to be mischievous and not conspire. My bid will be what I judge to offer me the max advantage. That's not to say what that bid will be.
Later, I May choose to collude, at which time I will conspire to max my ev. I've seen golden balls ( UK version) and it always amuses me how players shoot themselves in the foot by trying to steal. That's all I'll say for now, Draw your own conclusions.

So, Mike, how are the multiple rounds going top work? is each to be paid out in isolation, possibly at the end of x rounds? Are we trying to see how our ongoing cooperation tends to increase or decrease overall ev?

Or are you trying to do a character assessment on your members $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 10:21:31 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I'll put it on record that for the first round, I'm going to be mischievous and not conspire. My bid will be what I judge to offer me the max advantage. That's not to say what that bid will be.
Later, I May choose to collude, at which time I will conspire to max my ev. I've seen golden balls ( UK version) and it always amuses me how players shoot themselves in the foot by trying to steal. That's all I'll say for now, Draw your own conclusions.

So, Mike, how are the multiple rounds going top work? is each to be paid out in isolation, possibly at the end of x rounds? Are we trying to see how our ongoing cooperation tends to increase or decrease overall ev?

Or are you trying to do a character assessment on your members $:o)

http://www.wideawakeinwonderland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/616_1367723175.jpg
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
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August 18th, 2016 at 10:31:19 AM permalink
Are people allowed to lie? Any repercussions for liars?
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 10:40:40 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Are people allowed to lie? Any repercussions for liars?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVNgjYoQWpo
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
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August 18th, 2016 at 10:54:46 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Are people allowed to lie? Any repercussions for liars?


I'm sure lying will be just as encouraged as collusion.
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 11:30:40 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Are people allowed to lie? Any repercussions for liars?



Yes, lying is allowed. I don't see how anybody could be proven to be a liar because individual picks will be strictly confidential.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
onenickelmiracle
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:06:22 PM permalink
Quote: PeeMcGee

I’ll play.

And I'm fairly confident we can get maximum EV on this guys :)

I doubt it. First Canyonero has already said he is $2. GWAE says $2, and there are more. If you assume most people will say $2, the right move is to go with $1. If you assume most will say $1, you should say $2. However, if you assume some people will always say $2, you should always say $2 to punish them. I think there needs to be a bullet that comes with only one $1 bid, so the parasites can be gotten rid of. Then you eliminate those who you think are going to always help themselves at the expense of others.
I am a robot.
odiousgambit
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:22:26 PM permalink
I must have missed something. There's not enough money involved here, unless the Wizard lets this go on forever, or what did I miss?

I think that is why no 'organizer' has PM'd me with a plan, and why I am not motivated to do such either.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dalex64
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:25:53 PM permalink
Yeah, it is the poison pill threat.

Instead of paying someone to not pick $2, or believe that people are going to live in a cave and not see any discussion until the event is over, have enough people threaten to or actually pick $2 so no one gets anything.

So, instead of "pay me not to pick $2" it becomes "you get nothing if you pick $2" (yes, no one else gets anything either)
Romes
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:30:24 PM permalink
I'm confused by the people that want to say $2. Let's say it works out, and you get your $2. You want the Wiz to pay pal you $2 when we could have a ton more fun as a forum community betting it wildly on parlays with chances at hookers and blow? Not wanting to kinda says a lot more about each poster... Who wants to try to scrape their $2 instead of long shot odds at the finer things in life?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
GWAE
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:32:33 PM permalink
I think non collusion is more fun. It's a game after all.

Unless we do what Romes said and go for a decent long shot. Winning money ia more fun than a game.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Ibeatyouraces
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:34:50 PM permalink
I'd pick $3 because I'm uncooperative. :-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
MrGoldenSun
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:36:12 PM permalink
I like the Romes plan to get a decent amount of money together and then go for something like a single-number roulette bet. But the problem is it only really works if we get almost everyone on board.

I would consider Romes the current "organizer." Romes, can we get an update on who has pledged what? Or if you aren't the one in charge, who do you think is or should be?
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:45:20 PM permalink
List so far:

Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
MathExtremist
doughtaker
miplet
Axelwolf

Mrgoldensun, was that you saying in?

Also, We will have to plan for the non team members and some room for error. That was already in the plan... Realistically, we don't even have to PM for the plan. Simply posting it here once the list is put together will be enough. We will know how many $2 non team people there are and simply need to tailor our strategy with that in mind. It's very simple if everyone does what they are supposed to.
.
Wizardofnothing
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:47:03 PM permalink
In honor of pai gow Dan I think we should take the winnings and put it on the queen high side bet like this ...

https://imgur.com/JWByQdu
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
SOOPOO
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:49:00 PM permalink
I want $2 bill from Mike. I will select $2. I either get the $2 bill or nothing. I do not want a $1 bill.
bigfoot66
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:50:57 PM permalink
I will collude
Vote for Nobody 2020!
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:52:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

In honor of pai gow Dan I think we should take the winnings and put it on the queen high side bet like this ...

https://imgur.com/JWByQdu



Assuming thats an in for you then?
.
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:53:37 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I will collude



List so far:

Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
MathExtremist
doughtaker
miplet
Axelwolf
bigfoot66
gamerfreak

non team members:

soopoo
oncedear (for now)
tomG
Gwae


Ayecarumba, beachbumbabs, beerseason, Boz, Canyonero, Dalex64, DJTeddyBear, Doc HeyMrDJ, Hunterhill, jml24, Joeshlabotnik, odiousgambit, onenickelmiracle, Paigowdan, Paradigm, PeeMcGee, RonC, RS, rudeboyoi, theoriemeister, Torghatten, TwoFeathersATL, Wizardofnothing, wudged?
.
onenickelmiracle
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August 18th, 2016 at 12:56:05 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I think non collusion is more fun. It's a game after all.

Unless we do what Romes said and go for a decent long shot. Winning money ia more fun than a game.

You're $2 every time, we're not stupid.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:02:22 PM permalink
I voted $1 assuming there were many dicks.
I am a robot.
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:10:43 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I doubt it. First Canyonero has already said he is $2. GWAE says $2, and there are more. If you assume most people will say $2, the right move is to go with $1. If you assume most will say $1, you should say $2. However, if you assume some people will always say $2, you should always say $2 to punish them. I think there needs to be a bullet that comes with only one $1 bid, so the parasites can be gotten rid of. Then you eliminate those who you think are going to always help themselves at the expense of others.

+1
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:10:46 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I doubt it. First Canyonero has already said he is $2. GWAE says $2, and there are more. If you assume most people will say $2, the right move is to go with $1. If you assume most will say $1, you should say $2. However, if you assume some people will always say $2, you should always say $2 to punish them. I think there needs to be a bullet that comes with only one $1 bid, so the parasites can be gotten rid of. Then you eliminate those who you think are going to always help themselves at the expense of others.

+1
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:17:42 PM permalink
I sent my PM.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:22:53 PM permalink
List so far:

Romes
Mrsuit31
Blount2000
joeman
MathExtremist
doughtaker
miplet
Axelwolf
bigfoot66
gamerfreak

non team members:

soopoo
oncedear (for now)
tomG
Gwae
BBB
Canyonero

That's almost half....
.
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:44:49 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I want $2 bill from Mike. I will select $2. I either get the $2 bill or nothing. I do not want a $1 bill.

I have to admit that was my thinking. those $2 bills are worth $2 PLUS quirkiness.. i like quirkiness.

But...... This is a fun exercise. Think I'll be going with $1 on the basis that cheating and lying has been encouraged to the extent that we'll get a surplus of $2 bidders.

Yeah. $1 this time from me. Scout's honour $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
RS
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:50:32 PM permalink
Put me down for $1.
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:55:19 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

http://www.wideawakeinwonderland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/616_1367723175.jpg


$;o)
Thanks for that.

This could end up being one of the most destructive and divisive threads ever. Even being truthful won't offer any safety, because we will never KNOW who amongst us are the rats. There are sure to be some.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Doc
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August 18th, 2016 at 1:59:18 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Well, I have a first bid in mind, based on my previously-mentioned personal strategy, but I'll hold off on submitting anything by PM to see what happens with efforts toward collusion.

I still haven't heard enough to convince me just how the collusion/cooperation will work out. If I go my own route, I anticipate making a mix of $1 and $2 bids, if the game continues. The first round is the only one that requires me to make an arbitrary choice, with everything after that following the "strategy."

Or I could fall in line with the crowd. If not, I doubt my bid will -- in net -- hurt a cooperating group of others, and it could help them.
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 2:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes, lying is allowed. I don't see how anybody could be proven to be a liar because individual picks will be strictly confidential.


Do we have an exemption in this thread for divulging PM's and emails related to collusion? I think we should, coupled, of course with exemption for mischievous lying.

.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Ayecarumba
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August 18th, 2016 at 2:12:09 PM permalink
With so many "unknowns", perhaps "Team Max Value" should lower the expected value of the shared win from $50+ to a guaranteed $21? After all, a guaranteed $1 each compared to nothing, is more than anyone started with.

Is it worth losing $21 to keep 19 "Team Me" players from getting $2?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
OnceDear
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August 18th, 2016 at 2:39:29 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

With so many "unknowns", perhaps "Team Max Value" should lower the expected value of the shared win from $50+ to a guaranteed $21? After all, a guaranteed $1 each compared to nothing, is more than anyone started with.

Is it worth losing $21 to keep 19 "Team Me" players from getting $2?


Maybe over a few iterations the team work will get so refined that max EV is achieved and trust and good will will prevail.

Will the wheels fall off in round one?

Will there be public discussion about the thought processes and likely bids of non-team players? That Limey Oncedear can be trusted, but would it be better to assume he's lying about that $1 bid.

Nah! I bid $1 this time. Honest guv'nor.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 3:19:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I want $2 bill from Mike. I will select $2. I either get the $2 bill or nothing. I do not want a $1 bill.



I reserve the right to pay you 200 pennies.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 3:21:51 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Do we have an exemption in this thread for divulging PM's and emails related to collusion? I think we should, coupled, of course with exemption for mischievous lying.



Not unless the person being quoted consents.

BTW, 9 picks have been submitted thus far.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gamerfreak
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August 18th, 2016 at 3:34:18 PM permalink
Are picks open for submission? I might have missed it but I thought you'd announce the start/end of rounds
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 3:54:29 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Are picks open for submission? I might have missed it but I thought you'd announce the start/end of rounds



Yes, they're open.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TwoFeathersATL
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August 18th, 2016 at 5:27:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes, they're open.

Picks are open and 25% +/- have already been declared?
Supposedly declared. 'Robbers, bandits, and thieves' comes to mind as a saying. I was waiting upon instructions from my superiors (collusion organizers). I'll wait a bit more. Been busy and really haven't thought this thing thru very well, yet.
Later, 2F
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Ayecarumba
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August 18th, 2016 at 6:02:01 PM permalink
I am going to loosely affiliate myself with Team Max Value and declare $1 this round. To make it easy for the team to plan, in the next round, I will choose the higher value if it is even, and the lower value if the higher value is odd.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:13:29 PM permalink
I've received 16 picks so far.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TwoFeathersATL
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August 18th, 2016 at 7:32:09 PM permalink
Assuming there will be additional rounds in this 'experiment', with gradually increasing dollar amounts, like next round is 10-20, followed by 25-50, or some such:
I volunteer to take the lower bid on round one, and on round two, in exchange for being in the upper bid group on round three. Just as an idea. With limited time for collusion, and a general lack of organization thus far, I will plan on taking the $1 this round. I will however wait until much closer to the deadline to PM Wiz in case other strategies are put forth that I can sign on to.

I'm all for the hookers and blow let it ride strategy (as a pool), but Sparkles says I can only take ours in cash ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
PeeMcGee
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:00:28 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I doubt it. First Canyonero has already said he is $2. GWAE says $2, and there are more. If you assume most people will say $2, the right move is to go with $1. If you assume most will say $1, you should say $2. However, if you assume some people will always say $2, you should always say $2 to punish them. I think there needs to be a bullet that comes with only one $1 bid, so the parasites can be gotten rid of. Then you eliminate those who you think are going to always help themselves at the expense of others.


Yea, I may have been a tad optimistic. I figured with it being only a dollar difference…it wouldn’t be a big deal. But I guess that is the fun of this study/game.

Anyways, if anyone doing a running tally--I will go $1.

I won’t submit yet…just in case.

But I want to do what is best for the group, and I wouldn’t backstab/lie for a meager dollar.
AxelWolf
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August 18th, 2016 at 8:22:36 PM permalink
What's the most likely scenario where Mike would up the prize money and continue ?

We could all bid $2 giving him a false sense that he wouldn't ever have to pay and then we maximize EV once it's worthwhile.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gordonm888
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:40:51 PM permalink
I'm in.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mrsuit31
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August 18th, 2016 at 9:55:26 PM permalink
Since half the bids have already been placed, it doesn't seem that anyone is really open to this teamwork thing.

It would work and would be easy to do, but we have to get organized... I tried.

That being said I'm going with $1 this round.

We can try again next round to get everyone on board.
.
MathExtremist
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August 18th, 2016 at 11:37:10 PM permalink
I already submitted mine but since Mike wants re-submissions after the bell,

$1.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
odiousgambit
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August 19th, 2016 at 1:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

We could arrange for 21 people to say $1, then 19 people to say $2... ...THEN we start a pole in another thread about what sporting event / long shot to bet it on... Parlaying our $59 to something like $1k



I think there have been other proposals, making it very confusing, but this one is the one most referenced? the $2 folks should be picked at random out of the excess past 21?[don't PM wizard till you know?]

insisting we parlay to something respectable, even though I almost surely will miss the fun, for this time I will join the $1 colluders. Partiers are obligated to give a full report!

what's the over/under for $1 colluder liars?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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August 19th, 2016 at 4:28:05 AM permalink
It is possible Mike has already paid me $2 to be a mole, liar and cheat. Just saying....
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