Poll

No votes (0%)
2 votes (12.5%)
1 vote (6.25%)
3 votes (18.75%)
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1 vote (6.25%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (18.75%)
1 vote (6.25%)
5 votes (31.25%)

16 members have voted

mkl654321
mkl654321
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:01:08 PM permalink
And why?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
RobSinger
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:08:23 PM permalink
I wouldn't do anything until I knew exactly who or what the rebels represent. Then whatever the outcome and decision, I'd set the same policy for every one of those POS countries.
pacomartin
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:09:05 PM permalink
I have never seen a picture of "Sayyid Muhammad al-Rida bin Sayyid Hasan ar-Rida al-Mahdi as-Senussi" (born 20 October 1962) who the royalist claimant to the throne. I believe the Spanish monarchy was restored after 41 years of Francisco Franco's rule, so why not Libya?
P90
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:24:13 PM permalink
If there was no oil in Lybia, no one would care about it any more than about Somalia.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
DeMango
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:32:55 PM permalink
Does anyone really think our invovement will lead to less deaths overall?

Does anyone really think this will not cost us lots of money long term, in say rebuilding what we are blowing up, as in Iraq?

So basically we are trading bombs for oil?

So if we achieve regime change, who is the new boss? Will he be the same as the old boss?

At least everyone "knew" going in, that Saddam had WMD, what did MQ do to us after he became our BFF?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
P90
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:42:38 PM permalink
US has a lot more SUVs these days than back in the 1980s-1990s. A moderate external policy is no longer affordable if US is to push its oil consumption to new records.

That, and a small victorious war is all it takes to pull the media focus away from a failing government that has gone back on next to all its election promises.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
AZDuffman
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March 27th, 2011 at 4:45:42 PM permalink
I'd let it go until it appeared we had an interest. Lybia stole our oil back in the 1970s but nothing was done. We should have told France they were on their own if they wanted to act.

My question to all the Obama supporters/Bush haters is this: Are you going to now go around calling Obama a chickenhawk?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
RobSinger
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March 27th, 2011 at 5:47:55 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I'd let it go until it appeared we had an interest. Lybia stole our oil back in the 1970s but nothing was done. We should have told France they were on their own if they wanted to act.

My question to all the Obama supporters/Bush haters is this: Are you going to now go around calling Obama a chickenhawk?



I don't see Obama as chicken here--just inexperienced & confused. The only thing he's REALLY afraid of is producing a birth certificate.
Toes14
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March 27th, 2011 at 9:00:05 PM permalink
I'd leave the action up to the UN & the rest of the world, and sit this one out. We're already overextended in two wars we're not winning & have no exit strategy or end date for. The economy still sucks, and the country needs a lot of internal work.

Why open up a third military action that's going to cost us even more money & soldier's lives, when we should be focusing internally? Let's get our own house in order before trying to change the rest of the world.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 9:42:26 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

Are you saying that asking for a proof that an elected official has the legal right to be in office is right-wing extremism?
Sounds a bit ... ummm ... extreme, doesn't it? :)



First, the state of Hawaii has stated he was born there. That is good enough for me.

Second, it isn't so much the birth certificate itself, but that those who rant about it always seem to be right-wing extremists about more important issues. Raising the birth certificate issue is a convenient red flag to not bother listening to anything said person has to say.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RobSinger
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March 28th, 2011 at 2:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: timberjim

You seem to have a very negative view of Fox News. It should be very easy for you to document their bias. Remember that no one is denying bias on their commentary shows. Can you please document one news story broadcast that was biased.

As for the "main stream media" being biased, that debate was closed when CBS News and their anchor, Dan Rather, broadcast a negative attack on Bush in 2004 just before the election based on forged documents that their own experts told them were no good before the segment was aired. This was a blatant attempt to influence the upcoming election. The really pitiful thing has been Rather maintaining that his report was factual even after all of his "proof" was shown to be faked.



Liberals go after Fox News when they get frustrated over how they talk the talk then back it up by walking the walk when it comes to being fair & balanced. Almost every day one or more of their journalists and anchors offer proof of their airing both sides of any given story, yet liberals who don't watch it instead revert back to lies from looney-toon outfits like Move-on and others. And from the pasting the left has been having to take since Obama walked as an extremely inexperienced Mesiah, they almost need to do these things to be able to cope.
thecesspit
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March 28th, 2011 at 2:47:33 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

It must seem so simple to someone on the outside. It's not publicly available information, I don't have the documents, I was informed about it by someone inside, and the machine I tested seem to confirm the information but does not absolutely do so. What has been even more convincing is what I've seen as a player.



Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. It does seem simple : you have never provided results of your tests, your methods used to do those tests, you have not provided documentation, only heresay and anecdoctal evidence. The latter two are no more valid than a claim that Obama was born in Kenya based on heresay and supposition. You have written about it, but as you stated earlier, someone writing about something in a newspaper does not make it so.

For someone who writes about the Undeniable Truth, I don't think you've done much to expose the truth or make it undeniable in this case.

Indeed your choice to do what you like with the information so discovered, but you'll have to excuse the rest of the world for considering it a rather far-out claim.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
weaselman
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March 28th, 2011 at 2:58:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wavy70


It is amazing that the Birthers know so much about Obama's upbringing but seem clueless to Google. Excellent sleuth work PaulE.



If by "Birthers" you mean myself, I know absolutely nothing about Obama's upbringing ...

I am not clueless about google, but hesitant to use it in casual conversation. When RobSinger mentioned that Obama won't produce his birth certificate, and Wiz confirmed that by saying that he did not think it was necessary, I did not see any reason to not trust any of them in the issue, and double check their facts with google. Like I said, I don't really care if he produced his certificate or not, my position was just that, if he did not, like RobSinger and Wizard were saying, it was arrogant and rude.

Now, don't get me wrong, I still think he is rude and arrogant. And, I still think he could/should have handled the whole birth certificate issue better (perhaps, in a less rude and arrogant manner).
However, I was mistaken in accepting RobSinger's and Wizard's statements to the effect that birth certificate was never provided.
I still don't think that I should verify everything anyone says on google or by some other means, and think that your accusation is unwarranted.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 3:24:03 PM permalink
Quote: timberjim

You seem to have a very negative view of Fox News. It should be very easy for you to document their bias. Remember that no one is denying bias on their commentary shows. Can you please document one news story broadcast that was biased.

As for the "main stream media" being biased, that debate was closed when CBS News and their anchor, Dan Rather, broadcast a negative attack on Bush in 2004 just before the election based on forged documents that their own experts told them were no good before the segment was aired. This was a blatant attempt to influence the upcoming election. The really pitiful thing has been Rather maintaining that his report was factual even after all of his "proof" was shown to be faked.



*sigh* Almost every time I flip past Fox they are in commentary mode. Most of the time it is devoted to attacking Obama. Meanwhile, they turned a blind eye or at most put on velvet gloves when it came to GWB. I don't deny the Dan Rather incident. However, one incident does not make a case for the entire mainstream media being biased.

Quote: AZDuffman

The Constitution says "natural borncitizen." John McCain was born in the then Canal Zone, US Territory but not the USA. A child born to military parents stationed in Germany would be eligible. Lots of Resident Aliens (green gard) have SS numbers and cards, I have hired a few in my time. I forget what it says exactly, but there is a stamp on the SS Card stating this fact or some other disclaimer. Maybe someone can help remind me what it says.



For constitutional purposes, US military bases and embassies are part of the US.

Here is what my SS card says on the back of the paper it was attached to, that most pertains to this discussion:

If you are an alien legally in the U.S. but you do not have permission to work in this country, your Social Security card will be marked "NOT VALID FOR EMPLOYMENT." US immigration officials will be notified if the number is used for unauthorized employment."

Finally, can I put in a plug for a thread I put in the FSZ. Some of you may have missed it because FSZ posts don't get put in the "most recent posts" list. Cell phone etiquette in the UCLA Library.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
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March 28th, 2011 at 3:36:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

*sigh* Almost every time I flip past Fox they are in commentary mode. Most of the time it is devoted to attacking Obama. Meanwhile, they turned a blind eye or at most put on velvet gloves when it came to GWB. I don't deny the Dan Rather incident. However, one incident does not make a case for the entire mainstream media being biased.



FNC is in commentary mode all evening, a ratings winner and after all, there is not enough hard news to cover all day every day. Even in commentary mode FNC brings on both sides as guests. During the midterms FNC had their news-side covering it with a breakaway to Hannity and O'rielly for just a few minutes. MSNBC, meanwhile, had Maddow and I think Olberman on the whole time. Yes, I flipped back and forth just to see how MSNBC would cover it.

As to GWB, FNC was the outlet that broke the story of his DUI way back in the 1970s just days before the election. Meanwhile, CBS sat on the Monica Lewinsky story back in 1998 until Matt Drudge found out they had it. Doccumentation of CBS Bias can be found here: http://www.ratherbiased.com.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
timberjim
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March 28th, 2011 at 3:46:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

*sigh* Almost every time I flip past Fox they are in commentary mode. Most of the time it is devoted to attacking Obama. Meanwhile, they turned a blind eye or at most put on velvet gloves when it came to GWB. I don't deny the Dan Rather incident. However, one incident does not make a case for the entire mainstream media being biased.

].



I accept the fact Fox News Channel has many Commentary shows. Is there something wrong with people expressing their views? I get the distinct feeling that you feel that anyone that watches Fox News is somehow less intelligent than you *sigh* . If I have misconstrued your sarcasm, I apoligize.

Please document a single story about GWB that they turned a blind eye on. I am just looking for facts to back up the broad sweeping statements you have made. I look forward to the documented examples of these "velvet gloves". I easily documented the bias displayed by the left and will provide more after you have backed up your claims.
Nareed
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March 28th, 2011 at 3:56:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

For constitutional purposes, US military bases and embassies are part of the US.



Really? I find that suprrising. Embassies are considered sovereign territory of the country they represent. This is so all over the world. But I'm less certain about military bases.

In any case, what makes a "natural born" citizen? In Europe many countries define citizenship by blood-lines. Countries in the Western hemisphere, as far as I know, rely more on geography and parentage.

In Mexico you qualify as natural born if:

1) you are born in any part of Mexico; states, territories and possesions
2) you are born in any kind of sovereign territory of Mexico, including embassies but also Mexican-flagged ships or aircraft
3) either or both of your parents are Mexcian citizens

What are the rules in the US?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 4:34:17 PM permalink
Quote: timberjim

Please document a single story about GWB that they turned a blind eye on. I am just looking for facts to back up the broad sweeping statements you have made. I look forward to the documented examples of these "velvet gloves". I easily documented the bias displayed by the left and will provide more after you have backed up your claims.



I don't wish to debate what is plainly obvious to me. Go ahead and claim victory if you wish; I don't really care.

Quote: Nareed

Really? I find that suprrising. Embassies are considered sovereign territory of the country they represent. This is so all over the world. But I'm less certain about military bases.

In any case, what makes a "natural born" citizen?



I'm not an expert, but I'm quite sure a child born on a US military base would be immediately considered a US citizen. I think that as long as the US flag was flying over wherever the birth took place would be the applicable test.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 4:52:58 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

It must seem so simple to someone on the outside. It's not publicly available information, I don't have the documents, I was informed about it by someone inside, and the machine I tested seems to confirm the information but does not absolutely do so. What has been even more convincing is what I've seen as a player.



This last statement highlights your fundamental misunderstanding of the concept. "What I've seen as a player" would, for any person, even someone who plays 50 hours a week, be a much too small sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.

Any given player is quite likely to experience results that are far to one side or the other of the bell curve. Those who get crushed on the machines say there's a conspiracy and the machines are nonrandom; those who get lucky say they are geniuses and sell their VP "systems" to the gullible. What's bizarre, in your case, is that you seem to be assuming both roles--someone who says the machines are nonrandom but that you have a magical system for beating said nonrandom machines, AS THOUGH THAT DELIBERATELY PROGRAMMED NONRANDOMNESS WAS CONSTRUCTED TO FAVOR THE PLAYER. That's loonier than any tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist's ravings.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
teddys
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:08:54 PM permalink
Would be a fine argument, except U.S. bases aren't U.S. territory under the 14th amendment. (They may be territory for other legal purposes, but do not grant citizenship to people born there). The only places that qualify are the 50 states, DC, Puerto Rico, USVI, Guam, and NMI.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:12:29 PM permalink
Quote: timberjim



Please document a single story about GWB that they turned a blind eye on.



Thats funny. In the last year Bush was in office I stopped watching Fox because of all the Bush bashing there. Alan Colmes and Geraldo and Kristen whats her name and every night, to be fair and balanced, O'Reilly would have on 3 guests to tell us all the mistakes Bush was making. I got sick of it and stopped watching news altogether. Why don't they just air one side like all the other networks, its much easier to watch.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
RobSinger
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:18:52 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. It does seem simple : you have never provided results of your tests, your methods used to do those tests, you have not provided documentation, only heresay and anecdoctal evidence. The latter two are no more valid than a claim that Obama was born in Kenya based on heresay and supposition. You have written about it, but as you stated earlier, someone writing about something in a newspaper does not make it so.

For someone who writes about the Undeniable Truth, I don't think you've done much to expose the truth or make it undeniable in this case.

Indeed your choice to do what you like with the information so discovered, but you'll have to excuse the rest of the world for considering it a rather far-out claim.



I'm not sure where you read what you're claiming but I'll be happy to set your record straight so you don't make the same mistake again.

First of all, this is not "extraordinary" by any stretch. It's something that's available to the involved person who is motivated to obtain and understand the information, and if you're not a vp professional then you would most certainly not be interested enough to go after it. Certainly, it makes for good rhetoric by anonymous posters on the Internet, where just about anything can be labeled "incredible" and just about anything said by someone else can be labeled an assertion until some sort of proof is presented.

Next, I have indeed offered to have anyone who has the time and ability to follow my many pages of test reports obtained from a Rohde & Schwartz test equipment suite for several billions of hands over several months, to do so, and I have offered to be present at a WoV debate to make it so. And if you remember, ME gave a set of excuses while someone else similarly sweating gave some others. And as I said, these results alone are not absolute proof. You have to play the game, you have to be ultimately aware of what's going on, and you have to have the proper analytical mind to be able to process all the information logically. I have not yet seen that level of dedication from anyone here to date, and unless someone wants to set up that debate where a dozen geniuses from here can go up against me because that's what it'll take to be on even ground, then you can continue to make irresponsible accusations about The Undeniable Truth if you like. And I do believe people like that approach better than the alternative.
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:25:24 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

The Undeniable Truth



Funny, capitalizing Horse Shit doesn't give it any more credibility, either...

For that matter, it's neither "Undeniable" (I hereby deny it), nor the "Truth" (it's utter bullcrap).
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
MathExtremist
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

This last statement highlights your fundamental misunderstanding of the concept. "What I've seen as a player" would, for any person, even someone who plays 50 hours a week, be a much too small sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.


It would also be evidence from "someone on the outside". Singer is a gaming industry patron, just like any other Vegas tourist with a healthy comp balance -- he's a frequent player, not a gaming engineer or anyone with insider knowledge of the field. He also appears to have a faulty understanding of statistics based on his comments. Just go onto any online gaming forum and read all the rantings from new online casino players who will swear up and down that blackjack or roulette or slots are "rigged" -- they even have the player logs to "prove" it. Yet time after time, (with a few notable exceptions), such logs are shown to be statistically well within normal. Online, such logs are easy to get and analyze. Singer doesn't even have those, yet there he is with the exact same complaint. A basic statistics class would clear up his misunderstandings, but admitting he's wrong won't do much for his book sales.

Singer's suggestion idea that the Wizard is somehow out of his league on the topic of VP is just asinine and, I might add, reasonably insulting considering both the source and target. Several of the members of this forum, Wizard included, have worked for or with casino game vendors and know exactly what they're talking about. Still more have worked for casino operators (including you, as I've read in the past). Without fail, every single one of the actual industry professionals here has disputed Singer's claims. That's not something to be dismissed lightly, yet there he is, doing exactly that. I even offered to do a live debunk of one of his crackpot theories -- the one that VP hands aren't independently and randomly dealt but instead the whole machine operates within a payback percentage "safety net" -- but right about then he conveniently dropped out of the forum for a while. The offer still stands...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
timberjim
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:32:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't wish to debate what is plainly obvious to me. Go ahead and claim victory if you wish; I don't really care.
.



I understand that you are unable to debate this. I just didn't expect it to be so easy. Lets move on.
thecesspit
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:34:34 PM permalink
I'd request the Wizard splits the Thread off about VP... I'd like to reply to Mr Singer's last post without muddying up a debate about the POTUS and FOX.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:37:51 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I'd request the Wizard splits the Thread off about VP... I'd like to reply to Mr Singer's last post without muddying up a debate about the POTUS and FOX.



Remember oh, so long ago, when the thread was about Libya?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
MathExtremist
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:38:03 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

Next, I have indeed offered to have anyone who has the time and ability to follow my many pages of test reports obtained from a Rohde & Schwartz test equipment suite for several billions of hands over several months, to do so, and I have offered to be present at a WoV debate to make it so.



1) No you haven't. You just said you hooked up the equipment and you have results, from which you've drawn your own unverifiable conclusions. If you really wanted to present your findings in a valid, reviewable manner, you'd just post them publicly and let the interested public take a look. Why haven't you done that?

2) It is physically impossible to play "billions of hands" over "several months" on a VP machine. Consider that at 1 hand per second, which is several times faster than even the fastest human can play, a player on a machine full time 24x7 can play 31.5 *million* hands in a year. It would take over 30 years of non-stop play to play a billion hands at that rate. If you're going to make up numbers out of whole cloth, you should at least make them remotely plausible.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 5:46:24 PM permalink
Quote: timberjim

I understand that you are unable to debate this. I just didn't expect it to be so easy. Lets move on.



Taking a swipe and then saying "let's move on" is a kind of childish tactic. I doubt very much that the Wiz is, as you say, "unable" to debate the biased or nonbiased nature of Fox News; I do believe what he actually said, was that he was disinclined to do so. For what it's worth, I don't think Fox is as he claims, but he's entitled to his opinion--"handling GWB with kid gloves" could mean, in the Wiz's POV, that they didn't continually compare him to the Antichrist, or blame him for every single problem in the universe (as the rest of the mainstream media did)--which would be a wee bit unfair, but so what?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:32:05 PM permalink
All posts regarding the natural born citizenship status of Obama, McCain, and the Korean cafeteria worker have been moved to Natural Born Citizenship.

I may do other splits for Fox News and video poker if those go much further.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RobSinger
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:42:10 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

It would also be evidence from "someone on the outside". Singer is a gaming industry patron, just like any other Vegas tourist with a healthy comp balance -- he's a frequent player, not a gaming engineer or anyone with insider knowledge of the field. He also appears to have a faulty understanding of statistics based on his comments. Just go onto any online gaming forum and read all the rantings from new online casino players who will swear up and down that blackjack or roulette or slots are "rigged" -- they even have the player logs to "prove" it. Yet time after time, (with a few notable exceptions), such logs are shown to be statistically well within normal. Online, such logs are easy to get and analyze. Singer doesn't even have those, yet there he is with the exact same complaint. A basic statistics class would clear up his misunderstandings, but admitting he's wrong won't do much for his book sales.

Singer's suggestion idea that the Wizard is somehow out of his league on the topic of VP is just asinine and, I might add, reasonably insulting considering both the source and target. Several of the members of this forum, Wizard included, have worked for or with casino game vendors and know exactly what they're talking about. Still more have worked for casino operators (including you, as I've read in the past). Without fail, every single one of the actual industry professionals here has disputed Singer's claims. That's not something to be dismissed lightly, yet there he is, doing exactly that. I even offered to do a live debunk of one of his crackpot theories -- the one that VP hands aren't independently and randomly dealt but instead the whole machine operates within a payback percentage "safety net" -- but right about then he conveniently dropped out of the forum for a while. The offer still stands...



When I hit a nerve, I hit a nerve. And seeing that you are one of the few who has not yet blocked out the village idiot, you again left yourself open as an easy mark.

I have never said vp machines are "rigged" and for some reason you can't help yourself from saying that even if you don't mean it. As far as logs, I gave you an opportunity to show up and see them. You declined. Why? Because you likely wouldn't be able to live with yourself knowing full well that you'd have to contradict all that pent up self-proclaimed intellect that never wants you to admit you've been mistaken.

I expected you'd come on and try to comfort the Wizard over my truthful comment, but you've turned it into a personal attack. You and anyone else who claim to have worked in the industry obviously never were interested in the investigative side of the story. All you wanted to see was 1+1 add up to 2 and you were happy. Nothing else need be looked at. And if you are now willing to enter into a live debate without, as I've read, anyone paying for your trip and if you'd be prepared to make a healthy 5-figure bet that my play strategy does indeed work as I said it does, then you're on. And none of this "but gee Rob, that's too much money for me" because you can get any number of your wealthy math-types who also believe they're never wrong to put in with you.
RobSinger
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:48:29 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

1) No you haven't. You just said you hooked up the equipment and you have results, from which you've drawn your own unverifiable conclusions. If you really wanted to present your findings in a valid, reviewable manner, you'd just post them publicly and let the interested public take a look. Why haven't you done that?

2) It is physically impossible to play "billions of hands" over "several months" on a VP machine. Consider that at 1 hand per second, which is several times faster than even the fastest human can play, a player on a machine full time 24x7 can play 31.5 *million* hands in a year. It would take over 30 years of non-stop play to play a billion hands at that rate. If you're going to make up numbers out of whole cloth, you should at least make them remotely plausible.



It's statements like this that have always made me wonder if you really do have a math degree. I'm also sensing confusion over how TE could possibly be involved in such an event. Please show up for the debate. PLEASE.

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.
thecesspit
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:51:21 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I'm not sure where you read what you're claiming but I'll be happy to set your record straight so you don't make the same mistake again.



I'm claiming that there is little or no evidence for your claim that Nevada Video Poker machines operate in any other manner than the published regulations allow. If you don't know what I'm claiming, how do you know I made a mistake? :)

Quote:

First of all, this is not "extraordinary" by any stretch.



I absolutely claim it is. You are making a claim that many people inside and out of the industry do not believe, and have provided statements to the contrary.

Quote:

It's something that's available to the involved person who is motivated to obtain and understand the information, and if you're not a vp professional then you would most certainly not be interested enough to go after it.



But, your claim is verifiable by pointing those interested to the documents you claim exist, even if you do not have them at all. Moreover, I don't understand why, an author who has often exposed inside information in his columns and books would not produce this information, after all he is retired from playing VP, and therefore has little to lose.

Quote:

Certainly, it makes for good rhetoric by anonymous posters on the Internet, where just about anything can be labeled "incredible" and just about anything said by someone else can be labeled an assertion until some sort of proof is presented.



An assertion is statement that the maker says is true. So you are asserting that VP is not random as per the regulations. I am asking for proof of that assertion. It's not a rhetoric device at all. It's merely stating, at present and after some investigation in several places, and talking to you privately, I have not seen any thing to make me believe your statement

Quote:

Next, I have indeed offered to have anyone who has the time and ability to follow my many pages of test reports obtained from a Rohde & Schwartz test equipment suite for several billions of hands over several months, to do so, and I have offered to be present at a WoV debate to make it so.



I also asked previously as to what set up you used and how you generated the tests, but I must have misundersood your reply that the videos of the tests where no longer available. Maybe my request was not clear.

If you have an outline of your test method, I would love to read it, to see if I can actually follow the method and results you obtained. Hardware and software testing is something I do have a a more than passing interest in. It may be that the equipment you used and the data collected is not something I can work with.

Quote:

And if you remember, ME gave a set of excuses while someone else similarly sweating gave some others. And as I said, these results alone are not absolute proof.



As I recall, but it may be just after you left, ME proposed a very good test of your statement that VP machines will life the overall payback to a certain percentage, and also a good test on the card flip over effect.

I consider the latter effect may have some validity for various reasons, but this is an ongoing piece of work on my side.

Quote:

You have to play the game, you have to be ultimately aware of what's going on, and you have to have the proper analytical mind to be able to process all the information logically.



I'd dispute that I don't fall into that category.

Quote:

I have not yet seen that level of dedication from anyone here to date, and unless someone wants to set up that debate where a dozen geniuses from here can go up against me because that's what it'll take to be on even ground, then you can continue to make irresponsible accusations about The Undeniable Truth if you like. And I do believe people like that approach better than the alternative.



Considering the time and effort I have spent reading most of your posts on VPtruth, analyzing a lot of your hand plays and methods, I think I am in a good position to make statements to the effect I have about VP machine randomness.

I do not think I have made a single irresponsible accusation about the "Undeniable Truth" not least as the UT contains many statements, some of which are true, some of which I believe to be unproven. As the author himself says, it's up to each player to come to their own conclusions based on the evidence and their own logical analysis.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
weaselman
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Taking a swipe and then saying "let's move on" is a kind of childish tactic.


Well making an unsubstantiated claim, and then declaring that you are "disinclined" to provide support for it isn't exactly adult either, is it? :)
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
MathExtremist
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I have never said vp machines are "rigged".


You said they don't play randomly. You also said they operate within a percentage-payback-range safety-net -- that means the probability of getting a hand is not independent of prior hands. You specifically said that the probability of a single drawn card is not what it should be based on the initial deal. All of those are deceptive manipulations, and that's exactly what "rigged" means. Yet you've never produced a shred of verifiable evidence that the machines are rigged.
Quote:

As far as logs, I gave you an opportunity to show up and see them. You declined.


Quite the contrary, I've invited you multiple times to post your data on the Internet and subject it to peer-review. You declined.
Quote:

I expected you'd come on and try to comfort the Wizard over my truthful comment, but you've turned it into a personal attack. You and anyone else who claim to have worked in the industry obviously never were interested in the investigative side of the story. All you wanted to see was 1+1 add up to 2 and you were happy. Nothing else need be looked at.


Suggesting the Wizard doesn't know how VP works is, as I said, a pretty ridiculous statement. Moreover, you haven't provided anything to investigate. At all. Just your repeated, unverifiable assertions that VP is rigged in numerous different ways, and indeed that there is a secret government conspiracy to cover that up, but you can't or won't demonstrate any of that to be true. So you resort to bloviation and wild, virtual gesticulations. And ad hominem attacks on the intelligence of your critics.
Quote:

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.


So post the entire recorded sequence of results, as well as the test-harness setup and configuration information so others can duplicate your results.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:39:01 PM permalink
I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:54:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.



Well, strictly speaking, you're NOT in his league; you're in the majors, he's in Class D slow-pitch softball.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:56:55 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

It's statements like this that have always made me wonder if you really do have a math degree. I'm also sensing confusion over how TE could possibly be involved in such an event. Please show up for the debate. PLEASE.

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.



"Several billion hands", printed out in the smallest type visible to the unaided human eye, would consume hundreds of millions of pages. So either you're being disingenuous, or you have an appalling ignorance of mathematics.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:59:11 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

Well making an unsubstantiated claim, and then declaring that you are "disinclined" to provide support for it isn't exactly adult either, is it? :)



And what exactly are you referring to? I made such a remark about OBAMA recently, but I'm not Barack Obama--you do fathom the distinction, I hope? Or are you referring to the Wiz, and saying he's not "adult" for declining to explain why he feels the way he does about Fox News?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
RobSinger
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March 28th, 2011 at 10:38:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.



Sure I'll explain it. You have good general knowledge of video poker the game, video poker machines, video poker regulations, and the video poker industry. But the fact that you're pals with the LVA/HP "my way right or wrong" crowd and you all are in the income-from-the-gaming-business because of obvious shortfalls in your games, means minds being open to further expansion of vp knowledge is totally out of the question. You are an excellent analyst and are very good in breaking down the numbers, but everything you've done on your site I had to do myself as a minimum in the mid 90's in order to develope my play strategy. There's a lot of people in LV who sell, analyze & re-analyze optimal strategy. They basically take a textbook and write and re-write and re-write the same information over & over & over again. I actually did the analyzing without the sell--and then took it several steps beyond so that you and others like you have no choice but to continue to duck debating me or betting me on my ability to win with it. Always the safe way out. Best to save those reputations.

You also have not been as involved as I have been in completely dissecting every angle of the game over the years. You don't play it much, and you told me you can't beat it--whereas I have played for a living and seldom lost. And while you may have the ability to understand my play strategy and special plays that deviate from optimal play, I do not believe you would have been able to fully develop the strategy with the complexities I incorporated, or, just as importantly, I do not believe you have the necessary aptitude to be a video poker player who is able to consistently win.

No, you are definitely not in my league, and over the years I've seen or heard of no one who is so don't feel badly. People have always had the opportunity to prove they are, to debate me, or bet me, and to a person, they've all generated some of the most pathetic excuses they could think of. Then, you'll find them running to the forums looking for support & comfort while they still have their tails tucked firmly between their legs. One-on-one or one-on-ten: the gurus and "math" people (and I say that lightly because I probably have more math knowledge, math application, and math education that most or all of my critics) have never been able to stand up to me---except in their safe virtual world of the anonymous Internet.

Last words: If you're not happy with the undeniable truth here, ban me. Like that's a big deal. If you want to delete this post because you feel uneasy about others reading it, delete it. You read it. And if anyone here gets a backbone and wants to debate me in person and bet me on my strategy and/or review my machine test results even though no one here comes close to understanding what an R&S test suite consists of or what its function is, let me know. Just be sure to plug the escape holes on the back end.

I will not be back. And don't be surprised to see this published or podcast somewhere.
RS--out. Y'all enjoy the professionalism of MKL!
thecesspit
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March 28th, 2011 at 10:48:39 PM permalink
Ahh, and he's off again. Just as it gets interesting.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wavy70
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March 28th, 2011 at 10:52:09 PM permalink
But no one has yet to challenge my bewitched egg.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
EvenBob
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March 28th, 2011 at 10:52:09 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger



I will not be back. And don't be surprised to see this published or podcast somewhere.
RS--out. Y'all enjoy the professionalism of MKL!



Wow, that didn't take long. But the universe can't handle matter and anti-matter on one forum, as we've found out so many times in the past. One of them had to go so the songbirds could sing again and the sun not be in danger of extinguishing itself. Buh Bye again, Jerry, till we meet again.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mkl654321
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March 29th, 2011 at 12:36:05 AM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I will not be back. And don't be surprised to see this published or podcast somewhere.
RS--out. Y'all enjoy the professionalism of MKL!



That is the biggest lie in a post full of them. He'll be back, maybe not as "RobSinger", but as something else. His awful writing skills, lack of logic, feeble argumentative tactics, and most of all, his lying, fraudulent bullshit, will identify him easily enough. This man is a pathological fraud, folks, and he's made his living selling bullshit on the internet, so he's no more going to stay away than ducks are going to stop crapping yellow.

And I've not decided whether this clown is truly as ignorant as he appears to be, or is just a huckster with a cheap facade, but in any case, his "advice" is utter nonsense. He's probably DOWN a million+ dollars over the years, if he plays the way he says he does. What a human caricature he/it is!
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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March 29th, 2011 at 12:36:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

But no one has yet to challenge my bewitched egg.



Well, bewitched eggs definitely work---that's the undeniable truth.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
teeth1
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March 29th, 2011 at 12:50:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wavy70

But no one has yet to challenge my bewitched egg.



You're lucky Soccer didn't throw it at you for posting that Palin joke.
weaselman
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March 29th, 2011 at 4:25:37 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

And what exactly are you referring to? I made such a remark about OBAMA recently, but I'm not Barack Obama--you do fathom the distinction, I hope? Or are you referring to the Wiz, and saying he's not "adult" for declining to explain why he feels the way he does about Fox News?


The latter.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 29th, 2011 at 7:06:07 AM permalink
Thank you for the explanation.

Quote: RobSinger

Sure I'll explain it. You have good general knowledge of video poker the game, video poker machines, video poker regulations, and the video poker industry. But the fact that you're pals with the LVA/HP "my way right or wrong" crowd and you all are in the income-from-the-gaming-business because of obvious shortfalls in your games, means minds being open to further expansion of vp knowledge is totally out of the question. You are an excellent analyst and are very good in breaking down the numbers, but everything you've done on your site I had to do myself as a minimum in the mid 90's in order to develope my play strategy. There's a lot of people in LV who sell, analyze & re-analyze optimal strategy. They basically take a textbook and write and re-write and re-write the same information over & over & over again. I actually did the analyzing without the sell--and then took it several steps beyond so that you and others like you have no choice but to continue to duck debating me or betting me on my ability to win with it. Always the safe way out. Best to save those reputations.



Personally, I never accepted the debate because (1) you have never presented evidence that you have beaten the game so far, and (2) your claims do not even deserve the dignity of being debated.

Quote: RobSinger

You also have not been as involved as I have been in completely dissecting every angle of the game over the years. You don't play it much, and you told me you can't beat it--whereas I have played for a living and seldom lost. And while you may have the ability to understand my play strategy and special plays that deviate from optimal play, I do not believe you would have been able to fully develop the strategy with the complexities I incorporated, or, just as importantly, I do not believe you have the necessary aptitude to be a video poker player who is able to consistently win.



For the benefit of others, yes, straight up I have lost money straight up in video poker. However, if you add in the free play, tournament invitations and comps, then I'm up. You are right that straight up against the game I claim I can do no better than optimal strategy. While there are some 100%+ games, I don't play them because the expected win per hour is too low.

Quote: RobSinger

No, you are definitely not in my league, and over the years I've seen or heard of no one who is so don't feel badly. People have always had the opportunity to prove they are, to debate me, or bet me, and to a person, they've all generated some of the most pathetic excuses they could think of. Then, you'll find them running to the forums looking for support & comfort while they still have their tails tucked firmly between their legs. One-on-one or one-on-ten: the gurus and "math" people (and I say that lightly because I probably have more math knowledge, math application, and math education that most or all of my critics) have never been able to stand up to me---except in their safe virtual world of the anonymous Internet.



MathExtremist offered to debate you, and I offered to facilitate the debate. It seems to me you were not very eager to negotiate terms.

Quote: RobSinger

Last words: If you're not happy with the undeniable truth here, ban me. Like that's a big deal. If you want to delete this post because you feel uneasy about others reading it, delete it. You read it. And if anyone here gets a backbone and wants to debate me in person and bet me on my strategy and/or review my machine test results even though no one here comes close to understanding what an R&S test suite consists of or what its function is, let me know. Just be sure to plug the escape holes on the back end.

I will not be back. And don't be surprised to see this published or podcast somewhere.
RS--out. Y'all enjoy the professionalism of MKL!



I'll keep the post here. It does not say anything you haven't said 100 times before here, except it was more rude than usual. Since you seem to be resigning it will save me the trouble of invoking the nuclear option.

I still think that in person you are quite the gentleman. Should we cross paths in the future I would be happy to have another chat. I just think the board would be better off without you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MathExtremist
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March 29th, 2011 at 8:34:48 AM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I actually did the analyzing without the sell--and then took it several steps beyond so that you and others like you have no choice but to continue to duck debating me or betting me on my ability to win with it. Best to save those reputations.


You've repeatedly said that your play strategy is not predicated on your rigged-game theories. That's an odd statement in and of itself, since a proper optimal strategy would (and should) take into account your so-called "undeniable truth" about how VP games are rigged. In any event, you have been asked numerous times to present your analysis, yet you have always ducked the request. Best to save your reputation?

Quote:

You also have not been as involved as I have been in completely dissecting every angle of the game over the years.


Neither have you, apparently. Every single person who qualifies as a gaming analyst, mathematician, or researcher has one thing in common: they all show their work. You can find many papers, books, and websites replete with formulas, charts, or tables of VP statistics. There are numerous software packages which show detailed analytical results for almost any variation in rules or paytable that you can imagine. You claim that you not only performed such analyses but that you "took it several steps beyond" (see above), yet nobody has ever seen your work.

Quote:

No, you are definitely not in my league, and over the years I've seen or heard of no one who is so don't feel badly. People have always had the opportunity to prove they are, to debate me, or bet me, and to a person, they've all generated some of the most pathetic excuses they could think of. Then, you'll find them running to the forums looking for support & comfort while they still have their tails tucked firmly between their legs. One-on-one or one-on-ten: the gurus and "math" people (and I say that lightly because I probably have more math knowledge, math application, and math education that most or all of my critics) have never been able to stand up to me---except in their safe virtual world of the anonymous Internet. ... And if anyone here gets a backbone and wants to debate me in person and bet me on my strategy and/or review my machine test results even though no one here comes close to understanding what an R&S test suite consists of or what its function is, let me know. Just be sure to plug the escape holes on the back end.
I will not be back.


Your bravado doesn't actually change the fact that you have presented no evidence upon which to hold a proper debate, in spite of the numerous requests to publish your "machine test results". How can anyone debate the merits of your analyses when you've never actually released them? As for "pathetic excuses", if you'll recall I personally offered not only to debate you, but to disprove one of your rigged-game theories in a live casino setting using real VP machines. The post is still here. Do you remember your response? There wasn't one -- you dropped out of the forum the very same day I offered the challenge. Now that the challenge has been remade, it appears you're dropping out again. The very same day. Is that really how you want to make your second grand exit, leaving a simple question unanswered (again)?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wavy70
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March 29th, 2011 at 8:39:33 AM permalink
Quote: teeth1

You're lucky Soccer didn't throw it at you for posting that Palin joke.



I think he may be a bit sweet on me.
I can't blame him. I'm like candy.
I have a bewitched egg that I use to play VP with and I have net over 900k with it.
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