Quote: GundyNo action in Sarasota. That's all I'm saying.
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There is no way to know that at this time. I would agree that likely Sarasota will not be majorly affected, but until Thursday I don't think we can say for sure. Was it Irma that was supposed to head more North and then took an east route and wiped out Port Charlotte?
I have a tee time in Sarasota on Thursday, and I expect to play.
BUT, If the euro model is correct, I'll lose a couple rounds of golf this week. Perhaps Wed, Thu?
Quote: ChumpChangeI think you're slices will be buffeted by 100 mph winds.
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Maybe, but on the right holes he may drive the par 5 greens.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe streets of Miami Beach (the city) now flood with a normal rain.
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I'm pretty sure the streets of Miami Beach flood if somebody spills their Pina Colada
The NWS model guidance has shifted the official five day track EAST of yesterday's landfall.
Standard caveat about uncertainty past 48 hours from now. Models are all over the place after 48 hours.
My takeaways:
1. The GFS models are now shifting EAST, which makes the guidance track shade that way. Much more shifting will bring the storm back into Tampa and KSC.
2. Storm surge for this hurricane will be quite large. NWS is finally putting out a storm surge prediction, which is only around Miami and the Keys, where it is "up to three feet" above ground level at slack water-- and the storm's going to be nowhere close to Miami! You add waves up on top of that, and you can have up to 15 feet of water above the ground level.
3. NASA has delayed the rollback decision until late Monday evening. They want to preserve the ability to launch on 10/2.
4. The intensity forecasts are down, now with only a couple of models up in Cat-4 territory. Ian has been persistently disorganized, and is still at 45 mph with a significantly tilted central vortex. When it hits the hot water, it won't be able to take full advantage of it.
5. As it nears the mainland, it's going to run into some seriously hostile environment that will weaken it significantly, lopping off 25-30 mph off the winds. The storm surge, though, will persist, so don't be fooled if it drops a category--it can and will drown you if you're in the way.
Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
Quote: BillHasRetired
Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
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I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
Quote: rxwineQuote: BillHasRetired
Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
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I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
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I plan on driving down to FL next weekend and tossing rolls of paper towels to those in need. It’s the least I could do.
You’re welcome.
Quote: KeyserThere have been so few hurricanes this year. The few storms that have been out there are quite a bit weaker. Ho hum.
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So you've never walked thru six inches of ho hum in your kitchen?
Big thunderstorm. (years before cell phones) Lightning strike took out our neighborhood power for hours. We went to bed, but I made sure my nightstand light was switched on so when the power came on, I'd know. Woke up in the middle of the hot, sticky night, heard the air conditioning. Tried to go back to sleep but something kept nagging me. No light on the nightstand, or anywhere else. What the?
Got up (only had shorts on, barefoot), walked downstairs, stepped into the kitchen area and a half inch of HOT water. Raced to the basement to shut off the water main, which was under the kitchen. No flashlight, but I've lived in this house forever, so I knew where everything was. Cranked that valve closes as fast as I could, because I suddenly realized that I was grasping the main grounding element for the house while standing in my bare feet in the runoff from the kitchen which was draining through the floorboards and onto me.
Water off, the roaring of the hot water feed to the kitchen faucet finally stopped. Came upstairs, started toweling off, got a flashlight. All the linoleum tiles had curled up from the floor Nothing we could do--it was 2am, and we were at least stable.
Next morning, all the tiles had uncurled and reseated themselves (no problems for 12 years afterwards, either) The wedding band compression fitting had fractured and the supply hose to the faucet blew free. Simple fix and we were up and running in an hour.
But our bedroom was on the second floor. Why did I wake up? The sound of the water roaring through the AC ducts was not that loud. You couldn't hear voices through the ducts, for instance. Never solved the mystery, either.
It's like someone building a home in a tinder dry forest and then complaining about wild fire.
It's called "assumption of risk."
Quote: ams288Quote: rxwineQuote: BillHasRetired
Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
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I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
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I plan on driving down to FL next weekend and tossing rolls of paper towels to those in need. It’s the least I could do.
You’re welcome.
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I bought something called Pig Socks to absorb and corral any water.
https://www.newpig.com/pig-original-absorbent-sock/p/PIG237?couponCode=PLACOOL&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlrbM39iz-gIVSYFaBR2SeAtLEAQYASABEgJYXPD_BwE
Quote: GundyThere's no reason to not be in Sarasota next week.
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You were right it was dumb to cancel my trip.
Quote:There are just more than 1.75 million people under mandatory evacuation orders across the state of Florida at this hour.
Here's the breakdown by county:
Sarasota County: 151,000 people under mandatory evacuation orders
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZcbKUfaeeU
Ventusky now predicting up to 50" of rain at landfall areas as the hurricane stalls out over Orlando. Storm surge warnings posted for most of the west Florida coast and even on the east side near Jacksonville. Don't expect power to be restored any time soon.
Nothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!Quote: JoemanQuote: DRichEver since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
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Quote: JoemanNothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!Quote: JoemanQuote: DRichEver since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
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Thank you. This looks like it might be a real bad one. They are expecting up to 9ft of water at my house.
Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanNothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!Quote: JoemanQuote: DRichEver since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
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Thank you. This looks like it might be a real bad one. They are expecting up to 9ft of water at my house.
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Quote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Good luck! Did you ever have a chance to review your homeowner policy to confirm flood damage is not excluded?
Quote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Good luck! Did you ever have a chance to review your homeowner policy to confirm flood damage is not excluded?
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My sister lives in CA and has NO earthquake coverage on her dwelling. That coverage is like flood coverage issued by the government. I told her that if there was an earth movement event that she should set her dwelling on fire as fire is a covered peril. Yes, it is arson but almost impossible to prove that the owner set the fire.
Several years ago, there was a major flood in Macon, GA. There were homes lifted off their foundations and were floating down the river. One home was on fire with burning arrows attached. The insurance company had to pay the claim not because of flood damage but because of the fire. Arson, yes. Owner????
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigym
Several years ago, there was a major flood in Macon, GA. There were homes lifted off their foundations and were floating down the river. One home was on fire with burning arrows attached. The insurance company had to pay the claim not because of flood damage but because of the fire. Arson, yes. Owner????
tuttigym
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Wow! Flood and an Indian attack! What are the odds?!
Quote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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You refuse to leave your house so doesn’t mean much.
Quote: mcallister3200Quote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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You refuse to leave your house so doesn’t mean much.
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My dad lived in Florida 1990 to 1997 and I visited him a bunch of times and I hated every minute I was there. It was like being in a prison that didn't have air conditioning when you are outside. I couldn't breathe.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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Think of all the money you could save on candles tho…
Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
Quote: SOOPOOI am pretty depressed watching the news now. My son in Gainesville will be fine. But seeing entire towns basically destroyed…. We have been considering Florida as a retirement destination…. In January we are (were?) going to be in Fort Myers right by the causeway to Sannibel which apparently has collapsed.
Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
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The south has hurricanes, midwest has tornadoes, and west coast has fires, droughts, earthquakes.
In the North East, we get an occasional blizzard. I don’t know why anyone would ever leave.
Quote: SOOPOOI am pretty depressed watching the news now. My son in Gainesville will be fine. But seeing entire towns basically destroyed…. We have been considering Florida as a retirement destination…. In January we are (were?) going to be in Fort Myers right by the causeway to Sannibel which apparently has collapsed.
Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
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I'm not attached to stuff, so even if it washed or blew away it would just be inconvenience. What I need is already insured or in a fireproof safe or elsewhere altogether.
Only thing I miss is people and pets. (And then only some people.) Can't think of a thing that was lost or destroyed I ever sat around longing for months later. Or I just got a replacement eventually.
Everybody knows hurricanes will hit Florida, the only questions are when, where, and how strong?
People who choose to live there are gambling with their lives and property, basically.
Quote: EvenBobThere is a rumor that Drich is shopping for one of these so he can make it to his house.
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Sounds like a rumor started by someone who lost a lot of money on digital roulette today.
For those members in Florida, please post to make sure we know you are OK. Any pics?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
Quote: DRichQuote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
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Says the guy that evacuated. :-)
Quote: rxwineMaybe someone who's a boater can explain something. Why do people who have nice boats not travel laterally from approaching hurricanes? Same thing I wondered when Louisiana's shrimp boaters lost a lot of their boats in a hurricane awhile back. Granted this was a large storm, so maybe not so easy to escape the outer bands.
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A few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
Quote: DRichA few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
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It is little better for those of us who drive into hurricane zones.
When they reverse half the interstate lanes to facilitate evacuation (i.e. northbound traffic on the usually southbound side), I have to take side roads for 3 hours to get where I'm going.
Fortunately, I usually keep the appointment, then drive out before it gets too blustery.
Quote: DRichQuote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: JoemanHave you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
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Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
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I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
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Have you found your roof yet? Try the next County over. The roof has been on my house for 150 years hasn't blown off once.
Quote: DRichQuote: rxwineMaybe someone who's a boater can explain something. Why do people who have nice boats not travel laterally from approaching hurricanes? Same thing I wondered when Louisiana's shrimp boaters lost a lot of their boats in a hurricane awhile back. Granted this was a large storm, so maybe not so easy to escape the outer bands.
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A few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
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That makes sense. This doesn't.
Gene
Florida may not be able to rebuild as other areas have after a catastrophe.