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DRich
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September 25th, 2022 at 2:44:47 PM permalink
Quote: Gundy

No action in Sarasota. That's all I'm saying.
link to original post



There is no way to know that at this time. I would agree that likely Sarasota will not be majorly affected, but until Thursday I don't think we can say for sure. Was it Irma that was supposed to head more North and then took an east route and wiped out Port Charlotte?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Gundy
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:06:53 PM permalink
That's right. It's early but things are looking pretty good.

I have a tee time in Sarasota on Thursday, and I expect to play.

BUT, If the euro model is correct, I'll lose a couple rounds of golf this week. Perhaps Wed, Thu?
AlanMendelson
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:12:55 PM permalink
The streets of Miami Beach (the city) now flood with a normal rain.
ChumpChange
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:16:16 PM permalink
I think you're slices will be buffeted by 100 mph winds.
DRich
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:32:38 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I think you're slices will be buffeted by 100 mph winds.
link to original post



Maybe, but on the right holes he may drive the par 5 greens.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Gundy
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:33:24 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

The streets of Miami Beach (the city) now flood with a normal rain.
link to original post



I'm pretty sure the streets of Miami Beach flood if somebody spills their Pina Colada
rxwine
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:51:26 PM permalink
One of my personal favorite golf shots was using a 3 wood 100 yards out from the green in early storm winds. Hit it as hard as I could into the wind and it went over the green and blew back landing not far from the hole. Unfortunately, the wind started rolling it away from the hole before I could get my putter out.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
BillHasRetired
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:08:23 PM permalink
Yes, I know that I dissed the 18z models. While I prefer the 00z and 12z ones, I will always talk about the latest, unless the results are just plain unbelievable. Here we go...

The NWS model guidance has shifted the official five day track EAST of yesterday's landfall.
Standard caveat about uncertainty past 48 hours from now. Models are all over the place after 48 hours.

My takeaways:

1. The GFS models are now shifting EAST, which makes the guidance track shade that way. Much more shifting will bring the storm back into Tampa and KSC.

2. Storm surge for this hurricane will be quite large. NWS is finally putting out a storm surge prediction, which is only around Miami and the Keys, where it is "up to three feet" above ground level at slack water-- and the storm's going to be nowhere close to Miami! You add waves up on top of that, and you can have up to 15 feet of water above the ground level.

3. NASA has delayed the rollback decision until late Monday evening. They want to preserve the ability to launch on 10/2.

4. The intensity forecasts are down, now with only a couple of models up in Cat-4 territory. Ian has been persistently disorganized, and is still at 45 mph with a significantly tilted central vortex. When it hits the hot water, it won't be able to take full advantage of it.

5. As it nears the mainland, it's going to run into some seriously hostile environment that will weaken it significantly, lopping off 25-30 mph off the winds. The storm surge, though, will persist, so don't be fooled if it drops a category--it can and will drown you if you're in the way.

Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
rxwine
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September 25th, 2022 at 5:25:00 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired


Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
link to original post



I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
ams288
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September 25th, 2022 at 6:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Quote: BillHasRetired


Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
link to original post



I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
link to original post



I plan on driving down to FL next weekend and tossing rolls of paper towels to those in need. It’s the least I could do.

You’re welcome.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Keyser
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September 25th, 2022 at 6:50:14 PM permalink
There have been so few hurricanes this year. The few storms that have been out there are quite a bit weaker. Ho hum.
Keyser
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September 25th, 2022 at 6:50:23 PM permalink
There have been so few hurricanes this year. The few storms that have been out there are quite a bit weaker. Ho hum.
ChumpChange
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September 25th, 2022 at 7:04:23 PM permalink
Could get 1 to 2 feet of rain from Tampa to Orlando and Jacksonville.
AlanMendelson
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September 25th, 2022 at 7:13:22 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

There have been so few hurricanes this year. The few storms that have been out there are quite a bit weaker. Ho hum.
link to original post



So you've never walked thru six inches of ho hum in your kitchen?
BillHasRetired
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September 25th, 2022 at 8:46:33 PM permalink
I have. It went like this:
Big thunderstorm. (years before cell phones) Lightning strike took out our neighborhood power for hours. We went to bed, but I made sure my nightstand light was switched on so when the power came on, I'd know. Woke up in the middle of the hot, sticky night, heard the air conditioning. Tried to go back to sleep but something kept nagging me. No light on the nightstand, or anywhere else. What the?
Got up (only had shorts on, barefoot), walked downstairs, stepped into the kitchen area and a half inch of HOT water. Raced to the basement to shut off the water main, which was under the kitchen. No flashlight, but I've lived in this house forever, so I knew where everything was. Cranked that valve closes as fast as I could, because I suddenly realized that I was grasping the main grounding element for the house while standing in my bare feet in the runoff from the kitchen which was draining through the floorboards and onto me.
Water off, the roaring of the hot water feed to the kitchen faucet finally stopped. Came upstairs, started toweling off, got a flashlight. All the linoleum tiles had curled up from the floor Nothing we could do--it was 2am, and we were at least stable.
Next morning, all the tiles had uncurled and reseated themselves (no problems for 12 years afterwards, either) The wedding band compression fitting had fractured and the supply hose to the faucet blew free. Simple fix and we were up and running in an hour.

But our bedroom was on the second floor. Why did I wake up? The sound of the water roaring through the AC ducts was not that loud. You couldn't hear voices through the ducts, for instance. Never solved the mystery, either.
rxwine
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September 26th, 2022 at 12:44:19 PM permalink
Making sure I have enough cash this time. Irma knocked out credit and debit card transactions for almost 48 hours. Nothing like worthless plastic.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
MrV
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September 26th, 2022 at 1:08:48 PM permalink
People who move to the Florida coast should not be heard to complain about hurricanes, given the fact they moved there knowing hurricanes will happen.

It's like someone building a home in a tinder dry forest and then complaining about wild fire.

It's called "assumption of risk."
"What, me worry?"
rxwine
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September 26th, 2022 at 2:06:48 PM permalink
I think complaining is " Why oh why is this happening." Which would be stupid..
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
DRich
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September 26th, 2022 at 5:16:43 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: rxwine

Quote: BillHasRetired


Stay safe out there. Start panic buying NOW.
link to original post



I've got my mandatory 40 rolls of toilet paper. Because as everyone knows, even if food, water, and oxygen is gone, you gotta buy out all the TP on the store shelves during any emergency.
link to original post



I plan on driving down to FL next weekend and tossing rolls of paper towels to those in need. It’s the least I could do.

You’re welcome.
link to original post



I bought something called Pig Socks to absorb and corral any water.

https://www.newpig.com/pig-original-absorbent-sock/p/PIG237?couponCode=PLACOOL&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlrbM39iz-gIVSYFaBR2SeAtLEAQYASABEgJYXPD_BwE
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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September 27th, 2022 at 2:52:20 PM permalink
Quote: Gundy

There's no reason to not be in Sarasota next week.
link to original post


You were right it was dumb to cancel my trip.

Quote:

There are just more than 1.75 million people under mandatory evacuation orders across the state of Florida at this hour.

Here's the breakdown by county:
Sarasota County: 151,000 people under mandatory evacuation orders

ChumpChange
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September 27th, 2022 at 5:40:17 PM permalink
This could be one of the BIGGEST that EVER landed! RARE weather warning ahead of IAN! - MrMBB333 -
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZcbKUfaeeU
Ventusky now predicting up to 50" of rain at landfall areas as the hurricane stalls out over Orlando. Storm surge warnings posted for most of the west Florida coast and even on the east side near Jacksonville. Don't expect power to be restored any time soon.
Joeman
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September 28th, 2022 at 4:54:12 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Quote: DRich

Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.

My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
link to original post


SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
link to original post

Nothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
DRich
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September 28th, 2022 at 4:59:54 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Quote: Joeman

Quote: DRich

Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.

My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
link to original post


SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
link to original post

Nothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!
link to original post



Thank you. This looks like it might be a real bad one. They are expecting up to 9ft of water at my house.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Joeman
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September 28th, 2022 at 5:03:19 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Quote: Joeman

Quote: DRich

Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.

My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
link to original post


SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm
link to original post

Nothing like having the first storm out of the chute after I post this to make a liar out of me! My apologies, DRich. Stay safe!
link to original post



Thank you. This looks like it might be a real bad one. They are expecting up to 9ft of water at my house.
link to original post

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
DRich
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September 28th, 2022 at 6:28:07 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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September 28th, 2022 at 6:53:08 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Good luck! Did you ever have a chance to review your homeowner policy to confirm flood damage is not excluded?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
tuttigym
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September 28th, 2022 at 7:15:32 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Good luck! Did you ever have a chance to review your homeowner policy to confirm flood damage is not excluded?
link to original post


My sister lives in CA and has NO earthquake coverage on her dwelling. That coverage is like flood coverage issued by the government. I told her that if there was an earth movement event that she should set her dwelling on fire as fire is a covered peril. Yes, it is arson but almost impossible to prove that the owner set the fire.

Several years ago, there was a major flood in Macon, GA. There were homes lifted off their foundations and were floating down the river. One home was on fire with burning arrows attached. The insurance company had to pay the claim not because of flood damage but because of the fire. Arson, yes. Owner????

tuttigym
rxwine
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September 28th, 2022 at 7:43:20 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


Several years ago, there was a major flood in Macon, GA. There were homes lifted off their foundations and were floating down the river. One home was on fire with burning arrows attached. The insurance company had to pay the claim not because of flood damage but because of the fire. Arson, yes. Owner????

tuttigym
link to original post



Wow! Flood and an Indian attack! What are the odds?!
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2022 at 6:05:58 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mcallister3200
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September 28th, 2022 at 7:09:07 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



You refuse to leave your house so doesn’t mean much.
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2022 at 7:26:28 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



You refuse to leave your house so doesn’t mean much.
link to original post



My dad lived in Florida 1990 to 1997 and I visited him a bunch of times and I hated every minute I was there. It was like being in a prison that didn't have air conditioning when you are outside. I couldn't breathe.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



Think of all the money you could save on candles tho…
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SOOPOO
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September 29th, 2022 at 5:52:17 AM permalink
I am pretty depressed watching the news now. My son in Gainesville will be fine. But seeing entire towns basically destroyed…. We have been considering Florida as a retirement destination…. In January we are (were?) going to be in Fort Myers right by the causeway to Sannibel which apparently has collapsed.

Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
ChumpChange
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September 29th, 2022 at 7:17:43 AM permalink
So a million people just lost their cars and the car market is absolutely insane and broken. A million people will be pedestrians for the next year oir two.
gamerfreak
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September 29th, 2022 at 7:30:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am pretty depressed watching the news now. My son in Gainesville will be fine. But seeing entire towns basically destroyed…. We have been considering Florida as a retirement destination…. In January we are (were?) going to be in Fort Myers right by the causeway to Sannibel which apparently has collapsed.

Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
link to original post


The south has hurricanes, midwest has tornadoes, and west coast has fires, droughts, earthquakes.

In the North East, we get an occasional blizzard. I don’t know why anyone would ever leave.
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Sep 29, 2022
rxwine
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September 29th, 2022 at 8:18:43 AM permalink
My parents old house burned down years ago in Fort Myers. They had moved out a few years before that. But if it hadn't it might be finished now from the looks of things.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
rxwine
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September 29th, 2022 at 10:58:43 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am pretty depressed watching the news now. My son in Gainesville will be fine. But seeing entire towns basically destroyed…. We have been considering Florida as a retirement destination…. In January we are (were?) going to be in Fort Myers right by the causeway to Sannibel which apparently has collapsed.

Let’s hope DRich’s house is ok.
link to original post



I'm not attached to stuff, so even if it washed or blew away it would just be inconvenience. What I need is already insured or in a fireproof safe or elsewhere altogether.

Only thing I miss is people and pets. (And then only some people.) Can't think of a thing that was lost or destroyed I ever sat around longing for months later. Or I just got a replacement eventually.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
MrV
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September 29th, 2022 at 11:27:41 AM permalink
Yes, the loss of life and property is sad, but it was oh, so foreseeable.

Everybody knows hurricanes will hit Florida, the only questions are when, where, and how strong?

People who choose to live there are gambling with their lives and property, basically.
"What, me worry?"
EvenBob
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September 29th, 2022 at 11:36:02 AM permalink
There is a rumor that Drich is shopping for one of these so he can make it to his house.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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SOOPOO
September 29th, 2022 at 11:37:43 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

There is a rumor that Drich is shopping for one of these so he can make it to his house.


link to original post



Sounds like a rumor started by someone who lost a lot of money on digital roulette today.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Vegasrider
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September 29th, 2022 at 1:10:49 PM permalink
All right Floridians, start your Teslas! Feel bad for those who lost their life and their life long belongings and home. But it was their decision to live there. Risk vs consequences. I love Reno. The air quality can be horrible at times during the fire season, but that’s all we have to put up with. Yeah, a quake here and there but nothing major.

For those members in Florida, please post to make sure we know you are OK. Any pics?
rxwine
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September 29th, 2022 at 1:15:47 PM permalink
Maybe someone who's a boater can explain something. Why do people who have nice boats not travel laterally from approaching hurricanes? Same thing I wondered when Louisiana's shrimp boaters lost a lot of their boats in a hurricane awhile back. Granted this was a large storm, so maybe not so easy to escape the outer bands.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
DRich
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September 29th, 2022 at 2:47:27 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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September 29th, 2022 at 2:53:15 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
link to original post



Says the guy that evacuated. :-)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
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September 29th, 2022 at 2:55:00 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Maybe someone who's a boater can explain something. Why do people who have nice boats not travel laterally from approaching hurricanes? Same thing I wondered when Louisiana's shrimp boaters lost a lot of their boats in a hurricane awhile back. Granted this was a large storm, so maybe not so easy to escape the outer bands.
link to original post



A few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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September 29th, 2022 at 3:20:33 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

A few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
link to original post



It is little better for those of us who drive into hurricane zones.

When they reverse half the interstate lanes to facilitate evacuation (i.e. northbound traffic on the usually southbound side), I have to take side roads for 3 hours to get where I'm going.

Fortunately, I usually keep the appointment, then drive out before it gets too blustery.
May the cards fall in your favor.
EvenBob
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:24:22 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: Joeman

Have you evacuated, or are you going to ride it out?



Yes, we evacuated to Fort Lauderdale. The flooding is the biggest concern assuming the house is still there tomorrow.
link to original post



Las Vegas is probably looking pretty good right now. I refuse to even visit Florida let alone live there.
link to original post



I don't understand why people are scared of a little wind and rain.
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Have you found your roof yet? Try the next County over. The roof has been on my house for 150 years hasn't blown off once.
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rxwine
rxwine
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September 29th, 2022 at 5:24:46 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: rxwine

Maybe someone who's a boater can explain something. Why do people who have nice boats not travel laterally from approaching hurricanes? Same thing I wondered when Louisiana's shrimp boaters lost a lot of their boats in a hurricane awhile back. Granted this was a large storm, so maybe not so easy to escape the outer bands.
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A few years ago my company why buying a casino ship and sent me to Ft Myers to inspect it before purchase. I flew in on a Friday to do the inspection on Saturday. When I landed in Ft Myers the people at the car rental agency asked me why the hell I am coming here? I didn't know a hurricane was coming and the airport closed down Friday night. When I went to inspect the boat I couldn't find it. Finally I got a hold of the guy and he said the shipped sailed to get away from the hurricane. Sadly, I was stuck for four days because the airport was closed. Finally, I was able yo get home Wednesday and never did see the ship.
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That makes sense. This doesn't.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
GenoDRPh
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September 29th, 2022 at 6:32:03 PM permalink
I own a sailboat here in MA. When storms approach we move our boats out of the water, if we can, and secure the vessel on dry land. If we can't. there are certain steps we can take to try and minimize the damage to our vessels a hurricane can cause. Sometimes, neither step is fully successful in mitigating loss or damage. Which is why every marina, yacht club or boatyard requires boat owners to have insurance. As for fishing fleets, it's best to either sail the boats out of harms way, or take steps to secure while at the dock or mooring or anchor. It is never an acceptable option to try outmaneuver or to outrun the storm or ride out the storm while onboard. The dangers are just too great. Yet some people do so,

Gene
AlanMendelson
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September 29th, 2022 at 6:36:19 PM permalink
Florida has been facing an insurance crisis with ten major carriers leaving the state. Reduced insurance coverage remains with a government plan.

Florida may not be able to rebuild as other areas have after a catastrophe.
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