Hurricane Tracking
I am in no way related to this website, I just use it from time to time to get an idea of whats going on in the hurricane realm:
https://spaghettimodels.com/
Looks like we may have a hurricane on the east coast next week, or maybe nothing, who's to say XD.
Is there betting on storms (number of named storms, for example) anywhere?
Political betting is barred in Nevada.
Edited to add:
And a quick Google search found this....
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/cant-bet-on-sports-try-the-weather-instead/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
Quote: Talldude90Anyone ever track hurricanes.
Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
Yes, so far, this is a mild season as compared to the last several years, and versus what was predicted by the experts. September is typically the worst month for hurricanes, and we are halfway through. Not to say that big storms don't happen after Oct 1 (see 2005), but the bulk come in late August through the end of September.Quote: DRichEver since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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The tracking has gotten such that the 3-day cone is pretty accurate (The storm track will almost always lie within the cone). The 5-day cone is a little less accurate, but still fairly reliable. Beyond that, it's hit or miss.
SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm, but does experience flooding sometimes. If you are in a sturdy house and not in a flood zone, you are probably good to ride just about anything out.
Quote: Joeman
SW FL rarely gets the brunt of a powerful storm, but does experience flooding sometimes. If you are in a sturdy house and not in a flood zone, you are probably good to ride just about anything out.
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Surprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
So your house isn't listed in a flood zone and you save $3,500 a year on flood insurance. Great. But if your house IS flooded, which doesn't sound like a such remote possibility given its close proximity to flood zone properties, you're screwed. Have you worked out the probabilities and cost/benefit on this?Quote: DRichSurprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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Quote: UP84So your house isn't listed in a flood zone and you save $3,500 a year on flood insurance. Great. But if your house IS flooded, which doesn't sound like a such remote possibility given its close proximity to flood zone properties, you're screwed. Have you worked out the probabilities and cost/benefit on this?Quote: DRichSurprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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Since I am not in a flood zone my homeowners policy will cover anything beyond the $10,000 deductible.
Please check the language in your policy. Many if not most homeowners policies do not cover "flood" damage. They may cover "water" damage from, say, a busted pipe, or rain that DIRECTLY damages a house (for example from a hurricane), but not from damage that occurs as the result of waters from rising rivers or the ocean, including inland canals. Because your house is so close to a water source, if it's severely damaged or totally destroyed from a hurricane you might find yourself in an argument with your insurance carrier over the the question of whether the loss was from the winds and rain of the storm (a covered event) or the rising waters (a non covered event).Quote: DRichQuote: UP84So your house isn't listed in a flood zone and you save $3,500 a year on flood insurance. Great. But if your house IS flooded, which doesn't sound like a such remote possibility given its close proximity to flood zone properties, you're screwed. Have you worked out the probabilities and cost/benefit on this?Quote: DRichSurprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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Since I am not in a flood zone my homeowners policy will cover anything beyond the $10,000 deductible.
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Gene
Quote: DRichQuote: UP84So your house isn't listed in a flood zone and you save $3,500 a year on flood insurance. Great. But if your house IS flooded, which doesn't sound like a such remote possibility given its close proximity to flood zone properties, you're screwed. Have you worked out the probabilities and cost/benefit on this?Quote: DRichSurprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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Since I am not in a flood zone my homeowners policy will cover anything beyond the $10,000 deductible.
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I want to emphasize what UP84 said. Please carefully check your homeowners policy. There's a difference between falling water which is covered and rising or flowing water which is not covered.
Mud flows, for example, are considered rising or flowing water and is not covered.
But if rain water enters your home through a hole in the roof that is covered, even if the rain coming thru the roof floods your home.
Quote: Talldude90Anyone ever track hurricanes. Wonder if any casino's give any action on those...
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Always tracked them, just like I tracked blizzards. NJ, believe it or not, would get the remains of hurricanes rather often. 'Course, I now live in SC, so the danger of hurricanes is rather higher (and blizzards lower), so I'm tracking them a lot more.
This season makes you wonder about these long-range "experts". I put them in the same category as all those "experts" that seem to be surprised every time a financial report comes out. Hurricane experts do tend to cry wolf a lot more, it seems...until something like Sandy comes along and surprises them all.
We were supposed to get 20-26 tropical depressions and something like 14-16 'named' storms, and we're all the way up to....Fiona. So, no, I think it's a clear miss for the tropics this season (which is fine by me)
As for Fiona, it's definitely hooking to the north in the latest five-day forecast:
If I were in Bermuda, I'd be taking precautions and getting my boat out of the water, or going on a last-minute cruise to the west.
There's almost nothing for the next two weeks...which takes us to October.
Oh, sure, tropical waves are coming off Africa all the time, but they aren't developing into anything. Conditions are really hostile for forming hurricanes this year. Lots of upper-level wind shear (which tears the vertical middle out of a storm), and a surprising amount of Saharan dust as well (which interferes with optimal rain formation). And here I thought global warming was going to bring on sharknados. That's what happens when you listen to "experts".
Quote: DRichQuote: Talldude90Anyone ever track hurricanes.
Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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As you may already know, there are problems with running from hurricanes in Florida.
The state is not wide enough to avoid a hurricane when it swerves, And traffic backs up pretty quickly if you don’t start out early enough. But still, in general your odds are pretty good you won’t be one who suffers major damage when they do come through, though some always will.
See that little squiggle in South Carolina? That was Colin, the third named storm. It was so inconsequential that I had completely forgotten it. Then again, I don't live on the coast, so I'm sure that's part of it.
There have been NO major hurricanes (Cat 3 or above) this season for the first time in 8 years.
Quote: BillHasRetiredOh, and here's the Wikipedia graphical summary of the season through 09/10/2022:
See that little squiggle in South Carolina? That was Colin, the third named storm. It was so inconsequential that I had completely forgotten it. Then again, I don't live on the coast, so I'm sure that's part of it.
There have been NO major hurricanes (Cat 3 or above) this season for the first time in 8 years.
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I don’t know if hurricanologists record major tropical storms as “unborn hurricanes” but they can also be very damaging with their often slow moving mass and all the rain.
(I may have made up hurricaologist)
The global warming threats are WRONG AGAIN! Do these people ever get anything right?
When's the last time you've ever seen a meteorologist get fired for getting a forecast wrong? I can't think of one, and I have a bro-in-law who retired after 30 years in the NWS.Quote: GundyI live on the SW coast of Florida and enjoy tracking storms. It's been a boring year.
The global warming threats are WRONG AGAIN! Do these people ever get anything right?
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When hurricane Harvey hit Houston a few years ago, most homeowners didn’t have flood insurance, presumably because they “weren’t in a flood plain”. That didn’t work out well for themQuote: DRich
Surprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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It rains and floods in Houston all the time (used to live there). I recall reading that they’ve had three “500 year floods” in the last twenty years. You should carry flood insurance in a flat, swampy, coastal place like that or Florida irrespective of your “flood zone”
Quote: GundyI live on the SW coast of Florida and enjoy tracking storms. It's been a boring year.
I am pretty sure that we only live about 20 miles apart from each other.
Haven't seen a map look like THIS since Hurricane Harvey! - MrMBB333 - 554K subscribers
YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrZwj5gDIog
CNN - Hurricane Fiona makes landfall plunging Puerto Rico into total blackout - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dREAQSVBdE
Quote:... eight million people from 3.7 million households have been ordered to evacuate in southern and western Japan due to the arrival of typhoon 'Nanmadol', an "unprecedented" storm, according to Japanese authorities
Local authorities have issued a Level 5 warning, the highest on Japan's disaster alert scale, in both Kiushu and Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures. In the latter two areas, more than 110,000 people in 55,000 households have been alerted.
"Invest 98L" is out there and may develop into something soon.
Too early to tell.
Quote: GundySome hurricane action is possible for SWFL in a week or so.
"Invest 98L" is out there and may develop into something soon.
Too early to tell.
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The European model has it heading right for us.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2022092212&fh=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2022092212&fh=0
From what I'm seeing, the GFS has it hitting panhandle / bama as a possible Major Hurricane.
ECMWF has it hitting the keys on thru the Miami area.
The CMC on the other hand has it as a weak storm hitting south Florida, then hitting the entire east coast with hurricane force winds from Miami to Myrtle beach.
Quote: rxwineQuote: DRichQuote: Talldude90Anyone ever track hurricanes.
Ever since I moved to Florida last year, I definitely keep an "eye" out for them. This is my first hurricane season here and it has been unusually mild from what I have read.
My wife is the nervous type and will want to run anytime a storm heads in our direction. I am just the opposite and would rather hunker down and ride it out. She will win, she always does.
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As you may already know, there are problems with running from hurricanes in Florida.
The state is not wide enough to avoid a hurricane when it swerves, And traffic backs up pretty quickly if you don’t start out early enough. But still, in general your odds are pretty good you won’t be one who suffers major damage when they do come through, though some always will.
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I hope I didn't jinx myself. Looks more and more likely we will get hit by Hurricane Ian.
Quote: rxwine
I hope I didn't jinx myself. Looks more and more likely we will get hit by Hurricane Ian.
Current projections that are early have it going directly over my house.
Quote: NASA Artemis BlogSept. 27 Launch, Preparing for Rollback
NASA is foregoing a launch opportunity Tuesday, Sept. 27, and preparing for rollback, while continuing to watch the weather forecast associated with Tropical Storm Ian. During a meeting Saturday morning, teams decided to stand down on preparing for the Tuesday launch date to allow them to configure systems for rolling back the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft to the Vehicle Assembly Building. Engineers deferred a final decision about the roll to Sunday, Sept. 25, to allow for additional data gathering and analysis. If Artemis I managers elect to roll back, it would begin late Sunday night or early Monday morning.
The agency is taking a step-wise approach to its decision making process to allow the agency to protect its employees by completing a safe roll in time for them to address the needs of their families while also protecting for the option to press ahead with another launch opportunity in the current window if weather predictions improve. NASA continues to rely on the most up to date information provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Space Force, and the National Hurricane Center.
While the Sept 27 launch window itself isn't threatened (hurricane would be over Cuba), the time it takes to roll the rocket back, combined with the workers trying to evacuate their families, makes it a better solution to just ditch the 27th launch, roll the thing back on Sunday, and kick everyone loose to GTFO of the hurricane path.
Quote: BillHasRetired
While the Sept 27 launch window itself isn't threatened (hurricane would be over Cuba), the time it takes to roll the rocket back, combined with the workers trying to evacuate their families, makes it a better solution to just ditch the 27th launch, roll the thing back on Sunday, and kick everyone loose to GTFO of the hurricane path.
I am guessing that they are cancelling because of all of the lawn furniture that will be flying around. Monday i will be moving all my patio furniture into the house.
Quote: ChumpChangeLooks like it's forecast to be a Cat 5 off the coast of Tampa next Wednesday. Barometer will be below 28".
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Where are you seeing Cat 5? Everything I see still shows low end Cat 3. If it is likely to be a Cat 5, I plan on evacuating.
And you'd win.Quote: GundyI'll bet real money against a Cat5 hurricane
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None of the models are showing Cat 5.
Gusts don't change the category of a hurricane. Only 1-minute sustained wind speeds determine category
Tampa's going to get blasted, as Ian is now forecast to pass to the west. The strongest winds for a Northern Hemisphere hurricane are on the northeast (right) quadrant.
NASA is prepping to roll the rocket back into the VAB. Biggest reason: rain and hail damage likelihood. Second biggest reason: They want to release the employees to GTFO of the path, which means get the rocket in the VAB Monday night/Tue AM, and cut everyone loose.
PRO: Ian's track now no longer passes over Cuba, so you don't get the weakening phase
PRO: Track is longer, over hotter water, and has no land interaction
CON: A higher upper-level wind shear will lower intensity as it haggles the head off the top of the hurricane.
CON: A longer track means that eyewall replacement cycles can occur, which introduce chaos in the core and weaken the storm
Real answer? Damifino. Nobody does. They can't track the weather 5 days out. But we absolutely will burn up if 50 years unless everyone buys twisty lights and rides a bike to work and lives in giant apartment buildings where all units have smart thermostats controlled by the utility company.
Because science.
Quote: DRichQuote: UP84So your house isn't listed in a flood zone and you save $3,500 a year on flood insurance. Great. But if your house IS flooded, which doesn't sound like a such remote possibility given its close proximity to flood zone properties, you're screwed. Have you worked out the probabilities and cost/benefit on this?Quote: DRichSurprisingly the city where I live is known for flooding because the city has hundreds of miles of canals through it. My house is not in a flood zone but I am not sure why it isn't. Although I don't live on a canal, all of the house across the street from me are on a canal. Fortunately, by not being listed as a flood zone I save about $3500 a year on flood insurance.
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Since I am not in a flood zone my homeowners policy will cover anything beyond the $10,000 deductible.
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You need to check the exclusions in your standard homeowners policy. Flood and "rising waters" are always excluded from coverage as well as "earth movement" (earthquake). A real example of excluded claims would be if water collect on one's concrete patio and entered the dwelling through a sliding glass patio doorway or window. The resultant damage would NOT be covered by your HO policy. Call your agent. Your deductible has nothing to do with standard exclusions.
tuttigym
Quote: BillHasRetiredThe 18z runs (which are far less accurate, since they are a blend of 'old' 12z data with ACARS data from commercial aircraft, have more models with wind speeds forecast in the Cat-4 zone, AND the official forecasts for 130mph (Cat-4 starts at 135). So while it could go Cat-5, there are some things working for and against the possibility.
PRO: Ian's track now no longer passes over Cuba, so you don't get the weakening phase
PRO: Track is longer, over hotter water, and has no land interaction
CON: A higher upper-level wind shear will lower intensity as it haggles the head off the top of the hurricane.
CON: A longer track means that eyewall replacement cycles can occur, which introduce chaos in the core and weaken the storm
Real answer? Damifino. Nobody does. They can't track the weather 5 days out. But we absolutely will burn up if 50 years unless everyone buys twisty lights and rides a bike to work and lives in giant apartment buildings where all units have smart thermostats controlled by the utility company.
Because science.
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Love it.
tuttigym
Had one relative that worked for the NWS as a senior forecaster, another who worked with the centralized ACARS network. Plus a lot of experience with how terrible the 6z and 18z GFS model was with Northeastern blizzards.
Quote: BillHasRetiredThanks, Tuttigym,
Had one relative that worked for the NWS as a senior forecaster, another who worked with the centralized ACARS network. Plus a lot of experience with how terrible the 6z and 18z GFS model was with Northeastern blizzards.
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Your expertise and information are greatly appreciated. I lived in FLA for over 20 years and experienced only one hurricane, but the number of frantic reporting of tracts which were misses was quite large. What I am trying to say is that the "models" were just not very reliable. You said it better.
tuttigym
Hope stay safe DRich.
Quote: GundyThere's no reason to not be in Sarasota next week.
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Quote:Tropical Storm Ian is about to undergo explosive intensification into a major hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, a danger to the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and Florida in the coming days.
As Florida prepares for Ian, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties.
Yea ok, sounds like perfect weather for a vacation.
Don't minimize hurricanes.
But you don't need an actual hurricane to ruin your life for six months.
Just a tropical storm that might routinely drop 6 to 18 inches of rain in 12 hours is enough to flood homes.
Everything in Florida can flood. There is no such thing as high ground in Florida. Don't kid yourself.
Maximum elevation in the entire state is 345 feet above sea level.Quote: AlanMendelson
Everything in Florida can flood. There is no such thing as high ground in Florida. Don't kid yourself.
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Storm surge in the Keys is forecast to be up to 3 feet above ground level. That's slack water. That doesn't count the huge waves rolling in atop the slack water level. So you could see water 15 feet above ground level if you get a 12 foot wave atop the storm surge. Sandbags not gonna do bupkis against that.
More on the 5pm forecast after dinner. Spoiler: GFS is now trending east.
