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ams288
ams288
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Mission146
October 16th, 2018 at 2:08:11 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Warren is toast. Predictions can go south quickly.



It’s waaaaaaaay too early to make any predictions.

Elizabeth Warren would definitely not be my first choice for the Dem nominee.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146
October 16th, 2018 at 2:10:03 PM permalink
Quote: VCUSkyhawk

I don't think we can attribute this all to the media. The fact is the bulk of his presidency we were bogged down into two wars. That will tend to dictate how the rest of your policy goes.



Yes, Iraq went bad. But he lost the communication battle at home huge. He let he media set the narrative. Best example is accepting their premise in the “mission accomplished” banner. Trump would have said, “we got rid of saddam like we intended. You’re gd right the mission was accomplished!” Then the media would have had a collective pants wetting.

Bush41 did the same with what was a mild recession. They made it out to b the end of the world. He accepted their premise. And got clobbered.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TigerWu
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Mission146
October 16th, 2018 at 2:39:38 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

It’s waaaaaaaay too early to make any predictions.

Elizabeth Warren would definitely not be my first choice for the Dem nominee.



I see her as too weak. Especially to go head-to-head with Trump's nonsense. No way she'll be the nominee. And she's not helping herself now, either.

Then again, we're now living in an era where a screw-up that would have ended political careers 5-10+ years ago is forgotten about in 12 hours, so who knows what will happen in the next year and a half.
rxwine
rxwine
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October 16th, 2018 at 2:43:14 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

He let he media set the narrative. .



Trump's longtime overall low approval rating shows the fantasy of your conclusion that Trump has been setting the narrative,

Average for all elected presidents' 7th quarter 54

Trump Term average to date 7th quarter 39

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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Mission146RogerKint
October 16th, 2018 at 2:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I see her as too weak. Especially to go head-to-head with Trump's nonsense. No way she'll be the nominee. And she's not helping herself now, either.

Then again, we're now living in an era where a screw-up that would have ended political careers 5-10+ years ago is forgotten about in 12 hours, so who knows what will happen in the next year and a half.



It will be Kamala Harris. She's the only one tough enough. Warren is too nice. So is Klobuchar.

Biden could manage it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
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Mission146
October 16th, 2018 at 2:51:00 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Trump's longtime overall low approval rating shows the fantasy of your conclusion that Trump has been setting the narrative,

Average for all elected presidents' 7th quarter 54

Trump Term average to date 7th quarter 39

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx



His approval rating has been gaining veerrrrrry sloowwwly over the last year, but he's still the least popular President in decades. If he wins another four years he might be able to crack 50%.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146RS
October 16th, 2018 at 4:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Trump's longtime overall low approval rating shows the fantasy of your conclusion that Trump has been setting the narrative,

Average for all elected presidents' 7th quarter 54

Trump Term average to date 7th quarter 39

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx



By the same pols that had Hillary winning in a walk. If he is so unpopular, why are his rallies so filled with people and energy? Keep believing the lamestreams. It got your side so far the last 8 years.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mission146
Mission146 
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October 16th, 2018 at 4:32:30 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

By the same pols that had Hillary winning in a walk. If he is so unpopular, why are his rallies so filled with people and energy? Keep believing the lamestreams. It got your side so far the last 8 years.



Trump and Clinton were the two most divisive major party Presidential candidates in the history of this country, I think we can agree to that.

That having been stipulated, Donald Trump won 46.1% of the popular vote, which means that 53.9% of the popular vote went to any person not named, "Donald Trump."

Let's assume that everyone who did not vote for him also does not approve of the job he is doing. That alone gets you pretty close to where the polls are at right now. In fact, his aggregate disapproval percentage:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Is 52.4%, which theoretically means that some of the people who did not vote for him do not explicitly disapprove of him. His current aggregate approval is 41.9%, which means that not everyone who did vote for him explicitly approves of the job he's doing.

Is it really so hard for you to believe that the polls are close on this one?

The polls basically called it when it comes to the popular vote, really only kind of whiffing on a few states. I think all of the results, national and state by state (for almost all states) were within the margin of error.

If you followed everything leading up to the election, his path to victory was ALWAYS through the Electoral College.

In short, the polls (taken as a whole) were NOT wrong, the assumptions that people took from the polls were wrong.
Vultures can't be choosers.
rxwine
rxwine
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October 16th, 2018 at 4:41:42 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

By the same pols that had Hillary winning in a walk



Well in that case, if he has consistently good numbers we can dismiss those as well. Your rules, your loss.


Quote:

. If he is so unpopular, why are his rallies so filled with people and energy? Keep believing the lamestreams. It got your side so far the last 8 years.



Who ever said sideshow Don is not an entertainer who can draw a crowd?
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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October 16th, 2018 at 5:42:43 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



If you followed everything leading up to the election, his path to victory was ALWAYS through the Electoral College.

Uh, that is ALWAYS the path to victory.

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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