Cool, AZ. I think your takes are a pretty mixed bag, so let me respond individually.
1. Dem field to be at least as big as the GOP field was in 2016. The Obama years decimated the usual bench of Governors and other usuals, so a lot will jump in for the political exposure if nothing else.
I don't know that it will be as big, or if it is, that it will be as big for as long. Personally, I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of eight candidates make it to the first debate and maybe three-five make it out of South Carolina. Probably three.
2. Barring health issues, even with, Hillary jumps in after seeing the weak field. She might not make it far with an actual field to choose from this time and not having it fixed for her though. But she will freeze enough money and attention to muck up the field.
Let's hope to God not. I've really enjoyed the last couple years of not seeing or hearing from Hillary. I think it's also important to note that things haven't changed so much since 2016. If she somehow made it to the General Election, I tend to think she would just lose Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by even bigger numbers.
I also don't think Trump has really done badly enough (so far at least) for Hillary to really make a case against him. Her campaign would basically be, "Correct your mistake," but I don't think you have enough people who consider Trump a mistake. Once again, I would vote for neither, in all likelihood.
Finally, she's nowhere near Progressive enough for the current climate. You're going to need to turn out the youth in droves, not just at the polls, but also out there putting feet on the ground with signs and door-to-door to have any prayer in 2020. Incumbency is a pretty big advantage.
It's really just about being well-liked amongst your base and turning them out for the incumbent. Both W. and Obama had approval ratings right about at 50% for their reelection bids and both won more-or-less handily. Neither was going up against a great candidate, though. Romney certainly had a better chance than Kerry, but that 47% thing was a serious screw up.
3. Floor fight at the Democrat convention, Supers needed to take the nomination. This will result in even more calls to get rid of the Superdelegate system, ensuring a very far left candidate and wipeout in 2024.
I wish both parties would just go to popular vote, if you want to know the truth. It's possible that superdelegates will decide it, but I don't think that will bode well for the Democrats, if so.
4. Expect the early Democrat debates to be a total Trump hatefest. A smart candidate, maybe Biden. will try to talk about something else. They either get a large part of the vote as the others split the Trump-hate-vote or get laughed out.
We agree on this 100%. I think the smart candidate bashes Trump AND talks about something else. The left really hates Trump, so I have no idea how someone plans to win without bashing him.
5. The Democrat Party will have an identity crisis the whole way. Older and working class vs. young and socialist. The young and socialist will win out as they will push and Trump will pull the other group. The 50 year drift left of the Democrat Party picks up more speed than ever.
Yeah, I have to believe they lose the white male, non-college educated, working class almost completely sooner-or-later. 2020 might not be the year, but I have to think that it's coming sooner or later. If not for Unions and economically liberal policies, they would have almost zero of this demographic anyway.
The other issue is that if the eventual nominee is not far enough to the left, then you will have a third-party candidate who pulls some of that vote. You have to find a way to unite everyone behind one candidate, but it's not really a united party. Neither are the Republicans, but the different Republican factions seem to do a better job of at least putting up with one another. Gotta give them that.
IOW, I think big business and reduce taxes economic interests look at social conservatives and say, "Yeah, we can live with that, why not?" And vice-a-versa. Many Libertarians (not all) are just Republicans who think that the Evangelical Christians are a bunch of nutjobs (which they mostly are) when it comes to social issues.
6. Unions like USW and UMW have a hard time not endorsing Trump given the results he has given to their rank and file. One or a few might break and endorse him.
You realize that the USW was on the cusp of going on strike as early as two weeks ago, right? Apparently, the owners are not wanting the tax cut proceeds to, "Trickle-Down," as so many Republicans tend to believe will always happen.
The Right might get the Unions one day, just not today.
7. A never-Trumper RINO will try to primary him. The press will say how it has weakened him. As history has shown, CW is never right with Trump and it just fires up his base.
I agree that there will be primary competition that has virtually no chance of winning. I disagree that the person will be a RINO automatically. Do you know that it's possible for one Republican to disagree with the views and/or priorities of another and for both of them to still be Republicans?
8. Trump wins, picking up another state or two of working class folk, potentially NV. A 1984 style sweep is impossible today, but the trendlines are in that direction.
Unless something out of left field happens, I agree with this, but I think the map looks almost the same. The Democrat maybe wins Florida.
I think Biden is the Democrats' best chance. He's extremely well-liked, just maybe not Progressive enough, according to some. I don't see how Biden gets swept in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan AND Wisconsin, so that's something. I also think Biden could realistically win Florida and North Carolina.
What I don't think is that Biden will win the nomination.
9. Democrats could pick up some Senate seats as GOP is defending twice as many. Their best chances there since 2008 as the 2006/08 "Blue Bubble" has worked its way out of the cycle. If they do or not depends on who tops the ticket. A Biden and they do. A Harris or other socialist they do not.
I have no strong opinion on this.
10. Wizard elected Mayor of Vegas after promising to ban 6:5 BJ.
Vultures can't be choosers.