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RonC
RonC
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 6:39:41 AM permalink
I know we have various threads about the Trump Presidency and other items, but it looks like folks are starting to head to Iowa (well, at least one folk right now) in order to gauge support for a possible run in 2020.

"U.S. Sen. Cory Booker made his debut as a potential 2020 presidential contender, arriving in Iowa on Saturday -- just hours after casting his Senate vote against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

The New Jersey Democrat was well-received at an Iowa Democrats' gala in Des Moines, which featured around 1,400 activists in a state where Republicans control the governorship and both chambers of the Legislature, the Washington Post reported."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/after-dems-kavanaugh-failure-cory-booker-heads-straight-to-iowa

The 2016 Election thread started in November 2013. B9 predicted Christie would be the nominee and that he would lose. He did lose, but it was well before the nominations were made...anyone have predictions to make now that we can either say "wow, that was genius" or laugh at later?
VCUSkyhawk
VCUSkyhawk
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 6:44:32 AM permalink
Democratic Nominee: Either Biden or Sanders or Warren
Republican Nominee: It will be Trump, but somebody will make a valiant effort and fail.

Winner: I think it depends on where the economy is at in November 2020.
I got a plan, we take all your picks we reverse them like one of those twilight zone episodes where everything is the opposite. You say "black" we go white.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 7:09:12 AM permalink
Quote: RonC


The 2016 Election thread started in November 2013. B9 predicted Christie would be the nominee and that he would lose. He did lose, but it was well before the nominations were made...anyone have predictions to make now that we can either say "wow, that was genius" or laugh at later?



1. Dem field to be at least as big as the GOP field was in 2016. The Obama years decimated the usual bench of Governors and other usuals, so a lot will jump in for the political exposure if nothing else.

2. Barring health issues, even with, Hillary jumps in after seeing the weak field. She might not make it far with an actual field to choose from this time and not having it fixed for her though. But she will freeze enough money and attention to muck up the field.

3. Floor fight at the Democrat convention, Supers needed to take the nomination. This will result in even more calls to get rid of the Superdelegate system, ensuring a very far left candidate and wipeout in 2024.

4. Expect the early Democrat debates to be a total Trump hatefest. A smart candidate, maybe Biden. will try to talk about something else. They either get a large part of the vote as the others split the Trump-hate-vote or get laughed out.

5. The Democrat Party will have an identity crisis the whole way. Older and working class vs. young and socialist. The young and socialist will win out as they will push and Trump will pull the other group. The 50 year drift left of the Democrat Party picks up more speed than ever.

6. Unions like USW and UMW have a hard time not endorsing Trump given the results he has given to their rank and file. One or a few might break and endorse him.

7. A never-Trumper RINO will try to primary him. The press will say how it has weakened him. As history has shown, CW is never right with Trump and it just fires up his base.

8. Trump wins, picking up another state or two of working class folk, potentially NV. A 1984 style sweep is impossible today, but the trendlines are in that direction.

9. Democrats could pick up some Senate seats as GOP is defending twice as many. Their best chances there since 2008 as the 2006/08 "Blue Bubble" has worked its way out of the cycle. If they do or not depends on who tops the ticket. A Biden and they do. A Harris or other socialist they do not.

10. Wizard elected Mayor of Vegas after promising to ban 6:5 BJ.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Mission146
Mission146
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October 7th, 2018 at 7:36:52 AM permalink
Quote: VCUSkyhawk

Democratic Nominee: Either Biden or Sanders or Warren
Republican Nominee: It will be Trump, but somebody will make a valiant effort and fail.

Winner: I think it depends on where the economy is at in November 2020.



Republican: How do you define, "Valiant effort?" I think somebody will make, "An effort," and will lose by a country mile. In terms of approval rating amongst Republicans, Trump is essentially no less popular than was George W. Bush. He also has the advantage of incumbency.

In fact, only five times in the country's history has an incumbent President NOT won the nomination of his own party. On only one of those occasions was that President elected. (All others were VP's who replaced a President who died in office)

It hasn't happened at all since 1884 and Franklin Pierce in 1856 has the sole distinction of being the only elected President to ever lose the following primary. Pierce has also gone down in history as one of the worst Presidents of all time. This is a hard pill to swallow, but if I'm being objective based on everything that has happened so far, speaking from a policy standpoint only, but I don't think Trump will go down as one of the Top 5 or Top 10 worst Presidents of all time.

I understand there's a ranking out there that already has him as THE WORST, yeah, no bias there.

Anyway, he would have to seriously F something up monumentally between now and then for anyone to even be within sniffing distance of him in the Primary.

Again, it all depends on how you define, "Valiant effort." Honestly, I'll be impressed if all others Republican nominees, combined, win 25% of the vote.

(Post on Democrats to come)
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 7th, 2018 at 8:07:16 AM permalink
Cool, AZ. I think your takes are a pretty mixed bag, so let me respond individually.

Quote: AZDuffman

1. Dem field to be at least as big as the GOP field was in 2016. The Obama years decimated the usual bench of Governors and other usuals, so a lot will jump in for the political exposure if nothing else.



I don't know that it will be as big, or if it is, that it will be as big for as long. Personally, I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of eight candidates make it to the first debate and maybe three-five make it out of South Carolina. Probably three.

Quote:

2. Barring health issues, even with, Hillary jumps in after seeing the weak field. She might not make it far with an actual field to choose from this time and not having it fixed for her though. But she will freeze enough money and attention to muck up the field.



Let's hope to God not. I've really enjoyed the last couple years of not seeing or hearing from Hillary. I think it's also important to note that things haven't changed so much since 2016. If she somehow made it to the General Election, I tend to think she would just lose Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by even bigger numbers.

I also don't think Trump has really done badly enough (so far at least) for Hillary to really make a case against him. Her campaign would basically be, "Correct your mistake," but I don't think you have enough people who consider Trump a mistake. Once again, I would vote for neither, in all likelihood.

Finally, she's nowhere near Progressive enough for the current climate. You're going to need to turn out the youth in droves, not just at the polls, but also out there putting feet on the ground with signs and door-to-door to have any prayer in 2020. Incumbency is a pretty big advantage.

It's really just about being well-liked amongst your base and turning them out for the incumbent. Both W. and Obama had approval ratings right about at 50% for their reelection bids and both won more-or-less handily. Neither was going up against a great candidate, though. Romney certainly had a better chance than Kerry, but that 47% thing was a serious screw up.

Quote:

3. Floor fight at the Democrat convention, Supers needed to take the nomination. This will result in even more calls to get rid of the Superdelegate system, ensuring a very far left candidate and wipeout in 2024.



I wish both parties would just go to popular vote, if you want to know the truth. It's possible that superdelegates will decide it, but I don't think that will bode well for the Democrats, if so.

Quote:

4. Expect the early Democrat debates to be a total Trump hatefest. A smart candidate, maybe Biden. will try to talk about something else. They either get a large part of the vote as the others split the Trump-hate-vote or get laughed out.



We agree on this 100%. I think the smart candidate bashes Trump AND talks about something else. The left really hates Trump, so I have no idea how someone plans to win without bashing him.

Quote:

5. The Democrat Party will have an identity crisis the whole way. Older and working class vs. young and socialist. The young and socialist will win out as they will push and Trump will pull the other group. The 50 year drift left of the Democrat Party picks up more speed than ever.



Yeah, I have to believe they lose the white male, non-college educated, working class almost completely sooner-or-later. 2020 might not be the year, but I have to think that it's coming sooner or later. If not for Unions and economically liberal policies, they would have almost zero of this demographic anyway.

The other issue is that if the eventual nominee is not far enough to the left, then you will have a third-party candidate who pulls some of that vote. You have to find a way to unite everyone behind one candidate, but it's not really a united party. Neither are the Republicans, but the different Republican factions seem to do a better job of at least putting up with one another. Gotta give them that.

IOW, I think big business and reduce taxes economic interests look at social conservatives and say, "Yeah, we can live with that, why not?" And vice-a-versa. Many Libertarians (not all) are just Republicans who think that the Evangelical Christians are a bunch of nutjobs (which they mostly are) when it comes to social issues.

Quote:

6. Unions like USW and UMW have a hard time not endorsing Trump given the results he has given to their rank and file. One or a few might break and endorse him.



You realize that the USW was on the cusp of going on strike as early as two weeks ago, right? Apparently, the owners are not wanting the tax cut proceeds to, "Trickle-Down," as so many Republicans tend to believe will always happen.

The Right might get the Unions one day, just not today.

Quote:

7. A never-Trumper RINO will try to primary him. The press will say how it has weakened him. As history has shown, CW is never right with Trump and it just fires up his base.



I agree that there will be primary competition that has virtually no chance of winning. I disagree that the person will be a RINO automatically. Do you know that it's possible for one Republican to disagree with the views and/or priorities of another and for both of them to still be Republicans?

Quote:

8. Trump wins, picking up another state or two of working class folk, potentially NV. A 1984 style sweep is impossible today, but the trendlines are in that direction.



Unless something out of left field happens, I agree with this, but I think the map looks almost the same. The Democrat maybe wins Florida.

I think Biden is the Democrats' best chance. He's extremely well-liked, just maybe not Progressive enough, according to some. I don't see how Biden gets swept in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan AND Wisconsin, so that's something. I also think Biden could realistically win Florida and North Carolina.

What I don't think is that Biden will win the nomination.

Quote:

9. Democrats could pick up some Senate seats as GOP is defending twice as many. Their best chances there since 2008 as the 2006/08 "Blue Bubble" has worked its way out of the cycle. If they do or not depends on who tops the ticket. A Biden and they do. A Harris or other socialist they do not.



I have no strong opinion on this.

Quote:

10. Wizard elected Mayor of Vegas after promising to ban 6:5 BJ.



YES!
Vultures can't be choosers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 8:44:12 AM permalink
Harris.
Booker.
Klobuchar.
Clinton.
Cuomo.


My top 5 for the Dems. I would be surprised if it is not Harris or Booker.

I just don't see a successful challenger to Trump. It is not impossible that Trump decides he doesn't want 4 more years and makes way for Pence.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 7th, 2018 at 8:56:01 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



I just don't see a successful challenger to Trump. It is not impossible that Trump decides he doesn't want 4 more years and makes way for Pence.



(Insert Name Here) would destroy Pence in an absolute landslide. He's absurdly socially conservative and he has all the personality of an unpainted fence post.
Vultures can't be choosers.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 8:56:35 AM permalink
Predictions. Candidates. Democrats. If Biden declares, he will win, and several other strong candidates will not run. If he doesn't become a candidate, Kamela Harris will run, and win. Other candidates in a non-Biden race will be Booker, Warren, Avenatti, Steyer, maybe Bernie, couple others I don't see yet. I don't see any of them other than maybe Warren and for sure Harris being a serious contender against Trump.

I'd like to see Amy Klobuchar run, but I don't think she will - if she did, it's conceivable she could win the nomination, but I think she's too nice in this age of mean. Harris is not nice, which is in her favor for a race against Trump - she also scares the hell out of a lot of men, including the Senators she serves with. She is the only person fast and deft enough to grind and disrupt Trump (other than Biden, but he's a different kind of tough). Hillary will not run again.

Republicans. Trump is running - I don't see anyone able to defeat him in the primary. Flake, Kasich may try.

Third party could easily play a huge role in this. Any of the above possibilities could affect it, along with people like Michael Bloomberg. The largest political "party" affiliation is now Independents, with the main parties going further and further to their extremes.(Rep 24-26%, Dem 27-31%, Ind 41-44% in 2018 per Gallop).

As the Republican party has morphed into Trump voters, their numbers are shrinking, but more unified than any other faction. So a 3rd party is more likely bad for Dems, but it would depend on the candidates.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 8:59:28 AM permalink
I would personally never vote for someone over 70 yo be president. Guess Iím either not voting for pres or libertarian next one, same as this one. If theyíre going to turn 80 during the presidency, god forbid. Maybe Iíll change my mind on this when/if Iím 75.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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Mission146
October 7th, 2018 at 9:02:09 AM permalink
Warren wins primary
Trump wins with virtually no challenge.

Trump wins election again with losing popular vote.
GOP wins back house and keeps Senate.

Everyone on here complains that everything is so unfair to Republicans.

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