Miscellaneous Discussion Thread
Quote: lilredroosterThose are some pretty impressive calculations you made. But just one thing. It's a progressive machine. I should have said, several identical machines are linked together which is what caused the huge jackpot; it didn't come from just one machine. So, as far as I can tell you did not calculate the probability that someone else would hit the huge jackpot before you did. And I would guess that that is something that is not possible to calculate. So ignoring this example, in any progressive machine in which many identical machines are linked together to produce the size of the jackpot how do you account for the possibility that someone else will hit it before you? Answer only if you feel like it. If it's too much work let it go. I just thought about this and so once someone else hits the jackpot the jackpot goes way down and you stop playing. So on any given spin where the jackpot is still available then your calculations are correct. Other people playing at the same time as you did not reduce your chances of hitting the jackpot. But, it reduced your chances of playing for a very long time and therefore it caused your variance to increase dramatically. I think.
Another consideration is that the jackpot is probably paid in installments. If so you should not be using the $4 million number you should be using the present value or lump sum that they would pay.
Quote: lilredroosterThose are some pretty impressive calculations you made. But just one thing. It's a progressive machine. I should have said, several identical machines are linked together which is what caused the huge jackpot; it didn't come from just one machine. So, as far as I can tell you did not calculate the probability that someone else would hit the huge jackpot before you did. And I would guess that that is something that is not possible to calculate. So ignoring this example, in any progressive machine in which many identical machines are linked together to produce the size of the jackpot how do you account for the possibility that someone else will hit it before you? Answer only if you feel like it. If it's too much work let it go. I just thought about this and so once someone else hits the jackpot the jackpot goes way down and you stop playing. So on any given spin where the jackpot is still available then your calculations are correct. Other people playing at the same time as you did not reduce your chances of hitting the jackpot. But, it reduced your chances of playing for a very long time and therefore it caused your variance to increase dramatically. I think.
Well it's rather simple, sort of....if you know how many other people are playing as well as their spins/hour. If there's only 1 other person playing, then we expect to play a 1.5 million spins each, where I'd expect to lose $150k if I don't hit the progressive, or win $3,850,000 if I do hit it. If there are 2 other people (same speed of play), then we each expect 1 million spins, 2/3 chance of losing $100k and 1/3 chance of winning $3,900,000. If there are 99 other people, then we each expect 30,000 spins to either lose $3,000 99% of the time or win $3,700,000 1% of the time. The value is always going to be the same, on a per-spin basis.
If I don't know how many others are playing, then I'll either have to guess at it or say f*** it and go play it anyway.
Any way you slice it, it'd still be +EV (regarding # of other players). It's still worth the same amount per spin, so you should (theoretically) go play it, but it's overall worth less because you expect to get fewer spins on it if you're going up against other people.
Anyways, one of the frequent puzzles is Where's Waldo. It occurred to me today that if he wore the glasses, the Wizard looks just like Waldo.
Quote: RSIf I don't know how many others are playing, then I'll either have to guess at it or say f*** it and go play it anyway.
The whole question is much more difficult to answer if your consider horse racing carryovers which are somewhat similar to progressive slots. Horseplayers get very excited for example if there is 500K plus carryover in an extreme exotic bet. The High 5 bet at Woodbine just had a $2 mill carryover. The main difference is that in this type of bet the pot can be split by more than one person. So, I believe it is impossible to estimate the likelihood that the pot will be split and by how many people and therefore impossible to calculate an edge. The bettors just make some wild guesstimates and imagine they have a large edge. It's almost comical. Except a very few do crush on these types of bets because of handicapping skill.
Quote: GWAEToday is day 66 of no pop. I am now at a 10 year low in weight of 269. That is 31 pounds since Jan 8th. We leave for vegas on April 8th and really want to get to 259 by then. 3.4 pounds a week to get there. Not sure I can do that without starving myself but I am going to try.
Keep up the good work.
What have you substituted for pop?
Quote: GWAEToday is day 66 of no pop. I am now at a 10 year low in weight of 269. That is 31 pounds since Jan 8th. We leave for vegas on April 8th and really want to get to 259 by then. 3.4 pounds a week to get there. Not sure I can do that without starving myself but I am going to try.
Are you on any kind of exercise routine?
Quote: HunterhillKeep up the good work.
What have you substituted for pop?
Thank you.
Everyday I drink the same thing.
16 ounces of coffee with 2 sweet n lows
64 ounces of water
16 ounces of water with MIO flaboring
When I am at the casino I will drink 1 coffee, 1 sobe water, and about 8 bottles of water.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_intoxication
Quote: TigerWuAre you on any kind of exercise routine?
Nope, I have not exercised 1 time. The only minor thing that I have done is park at the far end of every parking lot.
Here was my menu today.
Breakfast, 1 cup of strawberries and blackberries with 16 Oz of coffee
Snack, 1 cup of plain celery
Lunch, peanut butter sandwhich, 32 Oz of water
Snack, .5 cup of plain celery and a fiber one coffee cake
Dinner, salad with no cheese or croutons and a spritz of italian dressing and spaghetti with homemade meat sauce using 93/7 meat and lots of veggies in it. 16x water with MIO
Snack, I will have another snack tonight. Maybe some goldfish and 32 Oz of water.
Quote: GWAENope, I have not exercised 1 time. The only minor thing that I have done is park at the far end of every parking lot.
Here was my menu today.
Breakfast, 1 cup of strawberries and blackberries with 16 Oz of coffee
Snack, 1 cup of plain celery
Lunch, peanut butter sandwhich, 32 Oz of water
Snack, .5 cup of plain celery and a fiber one coffee cake
Dinner, salad with no cheese or croutons and a spritz of italian dressing and spaghetti with homemade meat sauce using 93/7 meat and lots of veggies in it. 16x water with MIO
Snack, I will have another snack tonight. Maybe some goldfish and 32 Oz of water.
That looks like what I have, except spaghetti, because I hate spaghetti, I also have many red peppers because I love them and because of the Vitamin A and Vitamin C and because they are delicious.
Keep going, and exercise! If you need someone to exercise with, let me know, and I will drive up there when I don't have the kids. Shoot me a PM. It is tough to work out without company and we will do it together. Any Planet Fitness, anytime you like, if I don't have the kids.
Quote: Mission146That looks like what I have, except spaghetti, because I hate spaghetti, I also have many red peppers because I love them and because of the Vitamin A and Vitamin C and because they are delicious.
Keep going, and exercise! If you need someone to exercise with, let me know, and I will drive up there when I don't have the kids. Shoot me a PM. It is tough to work out without company and we will do it together. Any Planet Fitness, anytime you like, if I don't have the kids.
I may take you up on that sometime, but not until after Vegas.
What do you do with the peppers? I like them raw, but do you add anything to them? Are peppers healthy?
Tomorrow night I will have chili for dinner and Friday will be fajitas.
Quote: GWAEI may take you up on that sometime, but not until after Vegas.
What do you do with the peppers? I like them raw, but do you add anything to them? Are peppers healthy?
Tomorrow night I will have chili for dinner and Friday will be fajitas.
They are extremely healthy and I eat them!!! Raw, because they are delicious and do not need any help.
But, yes, if you want to work out with me shoot me a PM. If I do not have the kids I will do it anytime you like, if I do have the kids, then anytime other than that.
Quote: Mission146They are extremely healthy and I eat them!!! Raw, because they are delicious and do not need any help.
But, yes, if you want to work out with me shoot me a PM. If I do not have the kids I will do it anytime you like, if I do have the kids, then anytime other than that.
For just about ever I would have snacks like 100 calorie pack coolies or crackers. Celery and peppers are such good snacks that I should never have been eating that other crap.
Btw, wtf do you mean you don't like spaghetti. That is crazy talk. My homemade sauce is amazing.
Quote: lilredroosterThe whole question is much more difficult to answer if your consider horse racing carryovers which are somewhat similar to progressive slots. Horseplayers get very excited for example if there is 500K plus carryover in an extreme exotic bet. The High 5 bet at Woodbine just had a $2 mill carryover. The main difference is that in this type of bet the pot can be split by more than one person. So, I believe it is impossible to estimate the likelihood that the pot will be split and by how many people and therefore impossible to calculate an edge. The bettors just make some wild guesstimates and imagine they have a large edge. It's almost comical. Except a very few do crush on these types of bets because of handicapping skill.
I don't know anything about horse racing. I doubt "handicapping skill" has a significant factor in "crushing" these bets...the handicapping is likely just giving them less -EV. Those who hit big get all the fame for being "good" at handicapping, while the rest who don't hit big don't get any fame or whatever, even though they're probably almost just as likely (or rather, unlikely) to hit the pick 6 or whichever exotic bet it is.
Quote: GWAEFor just about ever I would have snacks like 100 calorie pack coolies or crackers. Celery and peppers are such good snacks that I should never have been eating that other crap.
Btw, wtf do you mean you don't like spaghetti. That is crazy talk. My homemade sauce is amazing.
I was shocked myself when Mission said he didn't like spaghetti. Spaghetti tastes awesome! :D Mission must be like Squidward Tentacles from SpongeBob Squarepants who doesn't like Krabby Patties even though all other Bikini Bottom citizens are addicted to them. ;)
Quote: NathanMission must be like Squidward Tentacles
I promised to acknowledge every time you seemed to have learned something, so, OK, another one!
I will say, though, that to actually post this might be like going before the judge in a criminal case and starting to make wisecracks about what a jerk he is ....
Quote: odiousgambitI promised to acknowledge every time you seemed to have learned something, so, OK, another one!
I will say, though, that to actually post this might be like going before the judge in a criminal case and starting to make wisecracks about what a jerk he is ....
I meant the Squidward Tentacles thing affectionately. :) Squidward doesn't like Krabby Patties even though everyone else in Bikini Bottom loves them. Mission said he doesn't like spaghetti, even thoug
h most people love spaghetti.
Quote: NathanI meant the Squidward Tentacles thing affectionately. :) Squidward doesn't like Krabby Patties even though everyone else in Bikini Bottom loves them. Mission said he doesn't like spaghetti, even thoug
h most people love spaghetti.
he's touchy about these things; I thought he was going to punch me once when I told him he bought some lousy cigars he was smoking and handing out
Quote: RSSpaghetti is disgusting. Fact.
Quote: GWAEFor just about ever I would have snacks like 100 calorie pack coolies or crackers. Celery and peppers are such good snacks that I should never have been eating that other crap.
Btw, wtf do you mean you don't like spaghetti. That is crazy talk. My homemade sauce is amazing.
My homemade Alfredo sauce is also amazing, and I will eat in on Penne, Tri-Color Rotini, Rigatoni, Medium Shells...but not spaghetti! I hate spaghetti! I also hate fettuccine, linguine and probably some other thin stringy pastas that I cannot presently think of.
Red Bell Peppers are an amazing vegetable and each of them contain almost an entire day of Vitamin A and 2.5 days of Vitamin C.
Quote: odiousgambitI promised to acknowledge every time you seemed to have learned something, so, OK, another one!
I will say, though, that to actually post this might be like going before the judge in a criminal case and starting to make wisecracks about what a jerk he is ....
I don't like the consistency of spaghetti, and SquidWard likely has good taste if he does not like Krabby Patties. Squidward also seems to have good taste in food and music. (even if he cannot play himself) Working at a fast food place aside, one could do worse than be like Squidward.
Quote: onenickelmiracleDo you at least like lo mein? Nothing is better than chicken lo mein from a Chinese restaurant.
I do not like Lo Mein or any other food involving the Chinese noodles because I do not like the Chinese noodles. Chinese restaurants don't really do much for me because I also hate regular rice, I only like wild rice.
Most of the Chinese food I like is no more Chinese than I am, which is not at all. If I am at a Chinese buffet, I usually just load up on all of the seafood stuff, (cocktail shrimp, fish, mussels, frog legs) and other than the seafood stuff, probably just crab rangoons (cheese wontons) which are just nutritionally horrendous, but really friggin' delicious....EDIT-Crawlfish, too, spicy!
If I am at a proper Chinese restaurant, then I will generally have a few crab rangoons for an appetizer and probably the Peking Duck, which actually is a Chinese dish and also just stupid unhealthy, but I probably only have that once a year, or so.
I don't know very much at all about Chinese takeout, I actually feel more comfortable with the buffet food than with takeout. I'd probably just have some crab rangoons and some kind of shrimp with vegetables thing and not eat the rice that comes with it.
I don't really eat much Chinese food, in general, just a buffet if I need something really quick and I'm with the kids, because they love that crap. I still wouldn't take them to that more than once a month, or so, rarer I'm sure. In general, I prefer Italian, Mediterranean, Greek, Mexican, American and pizza all to Chinese food. I distinguish pizza from Italian because our pizza is not Italian, and if I go to an Italian place, I would generally have the salmon.
I'm also pretty skilled in the kitchen, as TeddyS can attest if he sees this, so for me to go out, I either need to be pressed for time or have reason (or experience) to believe the place is really good. My palate has definitely become more sophisticated in the last several years.
Quote: Mission146
Red Bell Peppers are an amazing vegetable and each of them contain almost an entire day of Vitamin A and 2.5 days of Vitamin C.
I've been buying these sweet smaller red, orange, and yellow peppers, they come bagged, and they are great for snacking on. They're sweet. Tasty. And I know they're good for you.
99 cent store.Quote: bobbartopI've been buying these sweet smaller red, orange, and yellow peppers, they come bagged, and they are great for snacking on. They're sweet. Tasty. And I know they're good for you.
I think I said this already, but nuts and fruit are great. Pistachios and oranges. Brazil nuts and dates. (I think dates are fruit). Walnuts and blueberries.
Brazil nuts help you make testosterone, which you probably need if you are very overweight.
Different colors suggest different phytochemicals than just the chlorophyl laden green peppers, so a variety of colors is always better for you in your quest for flavonoids, carotenoids, terpenes and stilbenes.Quote: bobbartopI've been buying these sweet smaller red, orange, and yellow peppers, they come bagged, and they are great for snacking on. They're sweet. Tasty. And I know they're good for you.
Quote: RigondeauxAs a proponent of healthier eating, I must concede that cheeze-itz are the ish.
I think I said this already, but nuts and fruit are great. Pistachios and oranges. Brazil nuts and dates. (I think dates are fruit). Walnuts and blueberries.
Brazil nuts help you make testosterone, which you probably need if you are very overweight.
I think a lot of those foods you mentioned are great for maintaining weight but the contain too many calorirs fir someone trying to lose weight.
Quote: GWAENope, I have not exercised 1 time. The only minor thing that I have done is park at the far end of every parking lot.
You are likely on the right track. You should read through this article.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/fitness/why-you-should-stop-exercising-to-lose-weight/ar-BBycE5j?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
Although I don't take the message as anti-exercise, though some may read it like that.
Quote: GWAE
SWEET DREAMS.
Quote: RigondeauxAs a proponent of healthier eating, I must concede that cheeze-itz are the ish.
I think I said this already, but nuts and fruit are great. Pistachios and oranges. Brazil nuts and dates. (I think dates are fruit). Walnuts and blueberries.
Brazil nuts help you make testosterone, which you probably need if you are very overweight.
I first noticed the blueberry craze start about 10 or more years ago. In areas where there were grapes and almonds in California's Central Valley, they started clearing fields and building mounds of wood cuttings in rows. I asked around as to what was going on because they were popping up everywhere. They were blue berries, and I think the local season comes in before grapes. Since then I've read up on them and learned of all the good stuff in them, plus helping cognitive ability. I didn't eat them every day, but I did start eating them frequently. At least for me, I started having intense, vivid dreams after eating them. It may not work for everyone, but it does for me. Google it.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI like peppers but can never eat them raw without being grossed out. I think of the laborer in the field not being able to wash his hands after bodily processes and touching the peppers. That's where some ecoli outbreaks come from. I wash them in soapy water and rinse, but still.
If you like raisins, you probably don't want to see what they go through.
Quote: bobbartopI first noticed the blueberry craze start about 10 or more years ago.
I am a fan of the huckleberry, basically a wild blueberry although technically there is a difference.
The wild varieties have a more intense flavor and are even more nutritious. Last year was a bust, they didn't do well around my area. Ironically I had just located huge patches.
Quote: MrVEating healthy is fine, but when I want to munch I reach for the best snack food created by man
White cheddar ... Danger, Will Robinson! Lol...
Nuts are great. CVS had planters fancy mixed on BOGO a month ago and I bought buckets. Just killed the last one yesterday, darnit. Especially great in salads.
Quote: beachbumbabs
Nuts are great. CVS had planters fancy mixed on BOGO a month ago and I bought buckets. Just killed the last one yesterday, darnit. Especially great in salads.
Win!
I've read the last page and a half, or so, and it brings to mind my favorite salad to make:
Fresh Spinach
Red Leaf Lettuce
Julienned Carrots
Diced Red Pepper
Blueberries
Diced Strawberries
Cashews
Mixed Nuts
Crushed Oregano
Ground Peppermint
You can top it with Balsamic Vinegar, or not, sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I also didn't put portions because I never really pay attention and the ingredients work well together every time, just whatever portions my eyeball feels good about that day.
Quote: Mission146Win!
I've read the last page and a half, or so, and it brings to mind my favorite salad to make:
Fresh Spinach
Red Leaf Lettuce
Julienned Carrots
Diced Red Pepper
Blueberries
Diced Strawberries
Cashews
Mixed Nuts
Crushed Oregano
Ground Peppermint
You can top it with Balsamic Vinegar, or not, sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I also didn't put portions because I never really pay attention and the ingredients work well together every time, just whatever portions my eyeball feels good about that day.
Needs feta cheese to set off the berries, definitely a vinaigrette of some kind. Not a peppermint fan. Otherwise, yum!
Alternatively, a cheat day could consist of just an entire freakin' pineapple and veggie pizza with extra cheese, that's another good option for a cheat day!
Quote: onenickelmiracleI like peppers but can never eat them raw without being grossed out. I think of the laborer in the field not being able to wash his hands after bodily processes and touching the peppers. That's where some ecoli outbreaks come from. I wash them in soapy water and rinse, but still.
I don't know about freaking Bolivia or whatever but in this country they don't just crap in the field. We have porta-potties. And water and soap to wash with. And crew bosses to make sure the workers follow procedures. Am I saying that your peppers have never come in contact with human dingleberries? No, I cannot swear to that.
Item of interest. One of the most common items in overall farm theft, is porta-potties. Now you know.
Quote: bobbartopItem of interest. One of the most common items in overall farm theft, is porta-potties. Now you know.
Somewhere there is an El Chapo of porta-potties.
(talk about trying to hide the smell of used porta-potties while smuggling -- half odious chemicals and half crappola)
Quote: rxwineYou are likely on the right track. You should read through this article.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/fitness/why-you-should-stop-exercising-to-lose-weight/ar-BBycE5j?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp
Although I don't take the message as anti-exercise, though some may read it like that.
That is interesting.
One reason I did not incorporate exercise is because when you exercise you have a need for more calories. Part of my problem is eating too much. I found it counterproductive to exercise and then have your body want more food. Just finished my afternoon snack of peppers.
Sh!t happens! When those port potties go missing,they'll still be picking peppers. Maybe it takes a wild man, but a large percentage of people already refuse to wash their hands.Quote: bobbartopI don't know about freaking Bolivia or whatever but in this country they don't just crap in the field. We have porta-potties. And water and soap to wash with. And crew bosses to make sure the workers follow procedures. Am I saying that your peppers have never come in contact with human dingleberries? No, I cannot swear to that.
Item of interest. One of the most common items in overall farm theft, is porta-potties. Now you know.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSh!t happens! When those port potties go missing,they'll still be picking peppers. Maybe it takes a wild man, but a large percentage of people already refuse to wash their hands.
Oh gosh, look at all the people, (at least men), who don't wash their hands in casino restrooms. I can't believe how many pigs there are. And I don't mean just #1, I see many guys come out of the stalls and go straight for the door, not the sink. Where were these people raised? A proverbial barn, of course.
As for farm theft, I've seen everything stolen. Agriculture theft is huge. Especially during the peak of harvest, there is a lot of traffic at 3:00 in the morning when the moon is full. They're involved in stealing something. Porta-potties, packing material, even whole crops. I've seen whole illegal crews come into a field at night and strip a whole crop. By the time the sun comes up they are already in the Los Angeles markets, or even Tijuana. If it ain't nailed down ....
