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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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November 19th, 2025 at 2:14:49 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit


Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up
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Yeah, I'm thinking of buying back 10% of what I sold on Oct 8 on mon morning.
Lock in that 3% profit.

I will also buy back 40% for every 10% drop after that.
So buying at -3%, -13%, -23%, and -33% market drop (assuming correction will continue to take place next week)
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step 1 completed yesterday: Bought back 10% of what i sold 1 1/2 months ago on yesterday's drop.
it was 2.4% lower than when i sold. close enough to 3% and i don't have to keep thinking about it for only .6%

Now to wait for 13% lower than when i sold
link to original post

As you know I don't think you should be trying market timing, but you are determined to do it so let's see, it's not impossible to succeed of course. As for your plan, I just wouldn't wait for 33% down ... or even 23%. You must really believe this economy is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Maybe the AI connected stocks are due for a radical drop, but it easily could go in the opposite direction after what I would call this needed correction
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
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November 19th, 2025 at 5:26:14 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: odiousgambit


Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up
link to original post


Yeah, I'm thinking of buying back 10% of what I sold on Oct 8 on mon morning.
Lock in that 3% profit.

I will also buy back 40% for every 10% drop after that.
So buying at -3%, -13%, -23%, and -33% market drop (assuming correction will continue to take place next week)
link to original post


step 1 completed yesterday: Bought back 10% of what i sold 1 1/2 months ago on yesterday's drop.
it was 2.4% lower than when i sold. close enough to 3% and i don't have to keep thinking about it for only .6%

Now to wait for 13% lower than when i sold
link to original post

As you know I don't think you should be trying market timing, but you are determined to do it so let's see, it's not impossible to succeed of course. As for your plan, I just wouldn't wait for 33% down ... or even 23%. You must really believe this economy is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Maybe the AI connected stocks are due for a radical drop, but it easily could go in the opposite direction after what I would call this needed correction
link to original post


As i said earlier, it's a gamble with a floor of ~4% tbills.
And yes, all this gov't debt is artificially propping up the economy.
i believe This house of cards will tumble, but when?

Will it go up 30%+ before tumbling 20%, i dont know. (i will lose my gamble if this happens)
But i'm ok if lose with a 4% floor.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
billryan
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November 19th, 2025 at 5:28:50 AM permalink
Shall we assume none of your stocks pay dividends, and by selling them all six weeks ago, you didn't miss any? Saying you'll do something at 3%, but then doing it at 2.4 %shows a lack of discipline.
If I plan on buying Tesla at $200 but decide to buy it at $211, would anyone say I stuck to my plan?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 19th, 2025 at 7:47:13 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Shall we assume none of your stocks pay dividends, and by selling them all six weeks ago, you didn't miss any? Saying you'll do something at 3%, but then doing it at 2.4 %shows a lack of discipline.
If I plan on buying Tesla at $200 but decide to buy it at $211, would anyone say I stuck to my plan?
link to original post



Circumstances change. If I win the $1.2 million in the Draft Kings survivor pool (Ravens on Sunday) I will change my stock buying/selling/investing plans. First thing I dos pay off mortgage, not because it is necessarily the smart thing, I just hate debt. Then I’ll buy a bunch of the AIPI type stocks. And the rest into the 3.7% or so money market. I’m only doing the money market now. Unless DougGander gives me a pick….
billryan
billryan
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November 19th, 2025 at 8:20:05 AM permalink
I'm planning to sell half of my AIPI/CEPI/FEPI holdings early next year, after the December dividends are paid. It turns out I can get by on much less income than I'd budgeted so I'm trading income for a bit less risk. At this point, I just need to beat inflation and should probably be in all in T-Bills
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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