WoV stock portfolio

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I do almost nothing - I'm a buy and hold guy - I don't need income - our s.s. covers about everything since my home is paid for

it will all prolly go to charity when we pass - assuming some major medical stuff doesn't eat it up - we don't spend much

many years ago I stopped buying my S&P tracking fund and started buying a technology fund from Vanguard - VGT

it's done very well and I'm very happy with it - I don't like buying individual stocks although I did buy some of Nvidia which was out of character for me

I started buying VGT because tech seems to be the dominant thing in our society now

it's kinna ironic that I'm so heavily invested in tech because personally I'm not really into it - I just do basic stuff - (-:/

here's a look at the performance of VGT

Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares (VGT)


YTD
12.33%

1-Year
22.02%

3-Year
26.78%

5-Year
17.07%

10-Year
22.42%


.https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGT/performance/

Quote: lilredrooster

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I do almost nothing - I'm a buy and hold guy - I don't need income - our s.s. covers about everything since my home is paid for

it will all prolly go to charity when we pass - assuming some major medical stuff doesn't eat it up - we don't spend much

many years ago I stopped buying my S&P tracking fund and started buying a technology fund from Vanguard - VGT

it's done very well and I'm very happy with it - I don't like buying individual stocks although I did buy some of Nvidia which was out of character for me

I started buying VGT because tech seems to be the dominant thing in our society now

it's kinna ironic that I'm so heavily invested in tech because personally I'm not really into it - I just do basic stuff - (-:/

here's a look at the performance of VGT

Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares (VGT)


YTD
12.33%

1-Year
22.02%

3-Year
26.78%

5-Year
17.07%

10-Year
22.42%


.https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGT/performance/
link to original post

I couldn’t come close to living on just my Social Security! It doesn’t even pay for mortgage on Florida house!

When you say it will ‘prolly’ (I detest that non word!) go to charity when you pass, don’t you have a will that eliminates ‘prolly’?

Good hit on VGT. I think I have some too. Will check later.
And good hit on NVIDIA also.

New ATH at the open. +224%. In my non WoV portfolio TSM just keeps soaring. Did a cursory check and it’s a 5 bagger from just 3 years ago! And that doesn’t even include the hefty dividend. When (if?) it hits $300 I’ll sell some more. It’s a good thing, but I’m overweighted in it!

Well, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.

Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?

I've been tweaking and pruning my portfolio this week, a task I undertake every first week in October. What started out as a disastrous year turned out to be almost average instead.
Other than UPS, most of my stocks have done better than i'd hoped, with Walmart, Netflix, and ATT doing unexpectedly well.
This is the first year I have not reinvested my dividends automatically, but had them deposited into my checking account, and at the end of the month, I'd reinvest whatever was left over. It isn't very efficiant, but after a full year in Tucson, I have a better understanding of my expenses so I can adapt it somewhat.

As of today, my two best-performing portfolios for the year were both managed by Fidelity. My self-managed IRA is up just under 20%, , but my main investment account is up less than 5%. My spending account is down a few percent but has returned nearly 25%

BTW- It appears Warren Buffett made a great buy, swindling Occidental out of its petrochemical business. It must be nice to have nearly ten billion in cash to buy new toys. This might be the horse he rides into the sunset. I doubled my small position in BerkB

Berkshire owns roughly 30% of Occidental. It is paying 9.5 billion in cash for the PC business. Occidental uses the cash to reduce debt and buy back shares. Reducing the number of outstanding shares increases the value of each share, so not only did he swipe the profitable division from Occidental but he also raised the value of his stake in the company. It's like hitting a double right out of the box

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the market is way, way overvalued

Alan Greenspan , former Chairman of the Federal Reserved called it right years ago when he called a huge upswing of that era "irrational exuberance"

those with discretionary cash, possibly lots of newbies, are pouring money into it

I'm benefitting along with everybody else, but I'm not fooled by this

the S&P 500 lost 38.49% in 2008 and about 20% in 2022 and 23.4% in 2002

some investors are going to be in for a shock -

especially those that bought some individual stocks that are likely to tank much more than the broader market

but no telling when this will happen - it may be pretty far off - but it's coming - definitely

from the link:

"Based on September's S&P 500 monthly data, the market is OVERVALUED somewhere in the range of 117% to 193%, depending on the indicator."

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https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

Is the stock market more overvalued than the real estate sector? I suppose one can put all their money in SOGV or CDs and get 4% risk-free or invest in bonds.
If the market is 20% overpriced, does that mean people can't make money?

Quote: billryan

IF THE MARKET IS 20% OVERPRICED, does that mean people can't make money?

of course people can still make money in the long term

and the overpricing as I indicated is way, way more than 20%

my point is that it's wise to be aware of the risks, which are substantial

I'm personally not selling - I've always been buy and hold no matter what - I just want to be realistic about what is happening

the market may go up much more before the inevitable downturn - nobody can know when it will happen

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LilRed, I think to summarize your post….

‘The market goes up and down. And I can’t figure out when!’

I own TSLA. I thought it was overvalued at 20. At 40. At 100. At 200. At 300. At 400. It’s 413 now. Guess what I think about it? If it goes down to 350, is it fair for me to gloat at how smart I was in my thinking at 413?

But answer this…. If you REALLY believe the guy who says the market is overvalued, why would you possibly NOT convert your holdings to a guaranteed 4%?

The only answer that makes any sense…. You don’t really believe him!

Quote: SOOPOO

LilRed, I think to summarize your post….

‘The market goes up and down. And I can’t figure out when!’

I own TSLA. I thought it was overvalued at 20. At 40. At 100. At 200. At 300. At 400. It’s 413 now. Guess what I think about it? If it goes down to 350, is it fair for me to gloat at how smart I was in my thinking at 413?

But answer this…. If you REALLY believe the guy who says the market is overvalued, why would you possibly NOT convert your holdings to a guaranteed 4%?

The only answer that makes any sense…. You don’t really believe him!
link to original post

I sold at new market high last week:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/17177-wov-stock-portfolio/32/#post965997

Lets see if the market has diamond hands or continue selling on mon

Quote: 100xOdds

Well, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.

Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post

That it will go up 1000 points without you can and usually does happen when you try to time the market. The thing is, you may be correct that we are due for a correction, but what is likely to happen is you will fail to recognize the bottom. That is why 'they' say you have to be right twice!

Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up

Quote: SOOPOO

I own TSLA. I thought it was overvalued at 20. At 40. At 100. At 200. At 300. At 400. It’s 413 now. Guess what I think about it? If it goes down to 350, is it fair for me to gloat at how smart I was in my thinking at 413?

But answer this…. If you REALLY believe the guy who says the market is overvalued, why would you possibly NOT convert your holdings to a guaranteed 4%?
The only answer that makes any sense…. You don’t really believe him!

I don't know how anybody could look at those calculations that I posted (in the image) and not believe that the market is overvalued
there are complex and I believe accurate ways to determine the value of a stock
obviously stocks can continue to go up even after they are overvalued
but history has shown that sooner or later there will be a major correction
nobody can know when that will be

no, I don't believe I can time the market

I don't know that it won't go up another 8% before it takes a large tumble

and I don't know what the bottom of the tumble will be - I could only guess

too many unknowns for me to play that game

I'll stick with buy and hold - that strategy has been good to me for a great many years

also, if I sold, I would have an enormous tax bill on the capital gains from all of these many years

you may very well be a sharper investor than me and are capable of generating enormous gains such as in your Tesla example

more power to you - I don't have any confidence that I could do that

Quote: odiousgambit

That it will go up 1000 points without you can and usually does happen when you try to time the market. The thing is, you may be correct that we are due for a correction, but what is likely to happen is you will fail to recognize the bottom. That is why 'they' say you have to be right twice!

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I sold a bunch of highly volatile stock last week, and bought what I was told was a less volatile fund.
So the first big pot hole is hit, and my supposedly safer fund dropped 2.87% while the one I got rid of went down only 0.8%. Thankfully, I'm not in it for this week's results.

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some examples of what can happen during a market correction:

The Nasdaq Composite Index, which includes many technology and dot-com companies, experienced a dramatic decline during this period, falling by 76.81% from its peak on March 10, 2000, to its low on October 4, 2002.

Many other dot-com companies, including eToys.com, Go.com, and Excite, also went bankrupt or experienced severe declines.

Enron (ticker: ENE, later ENRN)
Peak: In August 2000, Enron's stock traded for $90.75 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of over $60 billion and making it one of America's largest and most innovative companies.
Enron filed for bankruptcy in December 2001. The stock price, which traded at $83.13 at the end of 2000, fell to as low as $0.12 by early 2002

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), a more established company, saw its stock price drop by approximately 89% from a peak of $80.06 in March 2000 to a low of $8.12 in October 2002.

Webvan's highest stock price was approximately $34 per share on its first day of public trading in November 1999. The stock opened at $26 and soared to its peak within hours, though it closed the day at around $24.88, according to The New York Times.
Initial Offering: Webvan went public at $15 per share.
First Day Peak: The stock reached a high of about $34 per share on its first day of trading.
First Day Close: It closed at around $24.88 per share.
Subsequent Decline: After its peak, the stock began a steady decline, and by March 2001, it had fallen to less than $1 per share.

Sears Holdings Corporation (ticker: SHLDQ)
Peak: In April 2007, Sears' shares hit an all-time high of $195.18, giving the company a market cap of around $30 billion.
Decline: The company failed to adapt to the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer habits, leading to years of declining sales and mounting debt.
Collapse: After years of store closures and poor financial results, Sears Holdings filed for bankruptcy in October 2018. Its stock, which traded on the OTC market under the ticker SHLDQ, fell to pennies before the company was eventually liquidated.

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Quote: lilredrooster

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some examples of what can happen during a market correction:


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link to original post

There are more than just a handful of these type stories

Although i probably remember the dot com bust of the early 2000s all too well and carry from that a little reluctance to put tech in my portfolio to the degree that should be there, the bust was a piece of cake to survive if you followed the best advice:

* invest over time. You don't want to take your life savings from the bank and put it all into stocks in a period of a few days only to find out you did that in, say, March 2000*, which is considered the beginning of the dot com bust. If you had been buying years before the bust, you saw a decline but not a wipeout. If you began to build slowly and chose March 2000 as a time to begin, and that may sound bad at first glance, but you see then you continued to buy getting a great price all the way up to about 2013 when NASDAQ started to take off .

* Diversify. If you did, you didn't have the misfortune of picking exclusively the mentioned stocks that went down the tubes. Furthermore, you wouldn't have just been buying NASDAQ stocks but a diversification of, say, the S&P 500, which didn't have such a steep decline. If you began your diversified investments around 1990, and kept buying through the decline, to say you sailed through is putting it mildly. Of course, you might have worried during declines.

I hope all of our investors here get to experience the 40 year miracle. That's when you really find you just couldn't have gone wrong owning stocks in spite of all that worrying you did during hard times. I look back and mutter about how I was way too conservative, owning way too many balanced funds and bonds.

* to pick that instead of 2008, following the Rooster's lead

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

Imagine if someone had learned their lesson after the dot-com crash and sunk all their money into CDs and savings accounts?
Not only would their savings grow slowly in the low-interest environment, but they'd have missed the most incredible market run while their nest egg got eaten away by inflation.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: 100xOdds

Well, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.

Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post

That it will go up 1000 points without you can and usually does happen when you try to time the market. The thing is, you may be correct that we are due for a correction, but what is likely to happen is you will fail to recognize the bottom. That is why 'they' say you have to be right twice!

Since you posted this on October 8th, I see you sold before stocks went down about 2% yesterday. I'd declare victory and buy everything back Monday morning even if futures say the market will go up
link to original post

Yeah, I'm thinking of buying back 10% of what I sold on Oct 8 on mon morning.
Lock in that 3% profit.

I will also buy back 40% for every 10% drop after that.
So buying at -3%, -13%, -23%, and -33% market drop (assuming correction will continue to take place next week)

Quote: billryan

Imagine if someone had learned their lesson after the dot-com crash and sunk all their money into CDs and savings accounts?
Not only would their savings grow slowly in the low-interest environment, but they'd have missed the most incredible market run while their nest egg got eaten away by inflation.
link to original post

No one in this thread has argued for doing that so . . . ?

Quote: unJon

Quote: billryan

Imagine if someone had learned their lesson after the dot-com crash and sunk all their money into CDs and savings accounts?
Not only would their savings grow slowly in the low-interest environment, but they'd have missed the most incredible market run while their nest egg got eaten away by inflation.
link to original post

No one in this thread has argued for doing that so . . . ?
link to original post

No, but how many people who lived through it quit investing? For some, it was a life-altering experience. For most of us, it was a speed bump, but there was a significant withdrawal from the market. My youngest sister inherited some money and bought $20,000 worth of Priceline tickets. A year later, it was worth a few hundred dollars, and she hasn't looked at a stock since.
I believe she bought it for around $600 and sold it for $15.

Quote: SOOPOO

But answer this…. If you REALLY believe the guy who says the market is overvalued, why would you possibly NOT convert your holdings to a guaranteed 4%?

The only answer that makes any sense…. You don’t really believe him!

Just because someone thinks the market is overvalued, it doesn't mean they think every stock is overvalued. As I always say, just buy the undervalued stocks.

Quote: DRich

Just because someone thinks the market is overvalued, it doesn't mean they think every stock is overvalued. As I always say, just buy the undervalued stocks.

undervalued stocks may not have "sex appeal"

it's not likely that a company that makes tires will get investors excited

I buy and hold only indexes as I've stated earlier (with one minor exception) that contain both overvalued and undervalued stocks

my experience thru many years of investing is that after tanking the indexes always come back

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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich

Just because someone thinks the market is overvalued, it doesn't mean they think every stock is overvalued. As I always say, just buy the undervalued stocks.

undervalued stocks may not have "sex appeal"

it's not likely that a company that makes tires will get investors excited

I buy and hold only indexes as I've stated earlier (with one minor exception) that contain both overvalued and undervalued stocks

my experience thru many years of investing is that after tanking the indexes always come back

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link to original post

Do you understand the concept of survivorship bias?

In the 1970s, when I began investing, you might get a 5% return on a mainline portfolio, but saving accounts were paying that much. There was little incentive for the average person to buy stocks, as you could pay $100 in commissions on a round-trip investment. The best alternative was finding companies that allowed free DRIPs. Even as late as the 1987 crash, there weren't many retail stock buyers.
Then someone offered $25 commissions and the race to attract new money was on. In less than a decade, everyone has come to expect commission-free stock sales and often chase the lowest fees rather than the best results.

Quote: bradnjanet

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DRich

Just because someone thinks the market is overvalued, it doesn't mean they think every stock is overvalued. As I always say, just buy the undervalued stocks.

undervalued stocks may not have "sex appeal"

it's not likely that a company that makes tires will get investors excited

I buy and hold only indexes as I've stated earlier (with one minor exception) that contain both overvalued and undervalued stocks

my experience thru many years of investing is that after tanking the indexes always come back

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link to original post

Do you understand the concept of survivorship bias?
link to original post

yes - good point

I should not have used my personal experience in the post as an example

my personal experience is not relevant

the indexes have come back every single time the market has tanked since 1971 when the first index fund was offered - 54 years ago

that is what is relevant

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Quote: lilredrooster

the indexes have come back every single time the market has tanked since 1971 when the first index fund was offered - 54 years ago

that is what is relevant

Not all index funds. Check out what has happened to the U.S. ETF's that invested in Russian index funds.

iShares MSCI Russia ETF (ERUS): This ETF was halted from trading on March 4, 2022, and is now in the process of being liquidated. All trading has ceased, and investors are being given liquidation distributions.
VanEck Russia ETF (RSX): This was another prominent Russia-focused ETF that is now in the liquidation process.

Is it Taco Tuesday yet?

100K worth of Bitcoin on Jan 1 2025 is now worth $113,000
100K worth of AIPI on Jan 1 2025 is now worth 104,000 and it paid out $25,000 thus far for a total return of $129,000.

on the other hand
$100K of bitcoin on 1-1-2024 is now worth roughly $250,000
100K worth of AIPI is worth about $125,000 and would have paid out roughly 52,000 for a total of $177,000.

If you bought at the height of BC, you are deep under water. If you bought AIPI at its peak, you've still made good money despite it's 12% price drop. AIPI holders will also recieve three more monthly payouts worth about $8,000.before the years end.

Quote: billryan

100K worth of AIPI on Jan 1 2025 is now worth 104,000 and it paid out $25,000 thus far for a total return of $129,000.
100K worth of AIPI is worth about $125,000 and would have paid out roughly 52,000 for a total of $177,000.
link to original post

AIPI is an interesting investment

your quotations re AIPI are not the same as what Yahoo finance quotes

they quote AIPI as having a YTD return of 14.12 % and a one year return of 18.91%

I'm not sure why the difference - I know yahoo is quoting total return

probably you understand it - but I don't


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIPI/performance/

.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

100K worth of AIPI on Jan 1 2025 is now worth 104,000 and it paid out $25,000 thus far for a total return of $129,000.
100K worth of AIPI is worth about $125,000 and would have paid out roughly 52,000 for a total of $177,000.
link to original post

AIPI is an interesting investment

your quotations re AIPI are not the same as what Yahoo finance quotes

they quote AIPI as having a YTD return of 14.12 % and a one year return of 18.91%

I'm not sure why the difference - I know yahoo is quoting total return

probably you understand it - but I don't


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIPI/performance/

I don't know why they are different. I'm using numbers from my own portfolio on AIPI. I've recieved $10.16 per share in monthly payouts and expect $3.75 or more before the year's end. That is almost $14 per share income on a $42 stock. That is a 33% return, although the yield is reported as around 15%. The last payout was $1.24plus plus per share. I bought most of it at $46-$48, so my investment is down, but I bought it for income, not growth. I don't have my exact cost per share but I'd estimate it is around $44 spread out over 15 purchases.
Bitcoin pays zero monthly, and you can only capture any gains by selling, while AIPI pays a monthly payout equal to about 30% of your investment each year. I'm not saying one is better than the other, although if you need a monthly income, one seems superior to the other.

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link to original post

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okay, I see your point -

I did research their dividend and it is what you say it is

I thought yahoo's quote might be a mistake but Morningstar (linked) quotes the same thing

I really hate it when there is stuff like this re stocks that I can't figure out

oh well, I'll put it alongside the mysteries of the universe


https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/aipi/performance

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AIPIs monthly payouts include the yield( dividends?) and a partial return of your investment. I don't think I know what that means well enough to explain it properly.

Let me try to demonstrate- I pay $50 for a share.
AIPI pays out $1.25 monthly. 50 cents dividend and .75 cents return on investment.
In a year, I get $9.00 Return on my investment and $6.00 in dividends
The 50 cents per month in dividends are taxed differently than the .75 cents Return of investment I get each month. Dividends are personal income, and ROI is capital gains, or something like that.
There is more to it, but hopefully you understand it a bit better.
If your stock is in a tax-deferred account, I'm not sure it makes a difference.

My retirement plan was to use the income from a third of my portfolio to live on, while the remaining two-thirds could continue to grow untapped. Never did I envision getting 30% returns like this. It's unsustainable, but if it lasts another 18 months, I'll have my entire investment back and be freeballing it for life. Meanwhile, 90% of my portfolio is growing with much less risk, and I can devote more to my charity work.
It's worked out well for me, so far, but it is a small portion of my portfolio, and I understand the risk. If I sell at anything north of $30, I'll be in the black at this point, so my risk is negligible.