WoV stock portfolio
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanJeff Bezos had long planned to sell several billion dollars ' worth of Amazon stock this week. He once again got lucky as the stock soared over 20% before he sold. Imagine cashing in four billion to clean up some debts.
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I guess that I am just old school. My thoughts are that if you are worth $250 billion you shouldn't have any debts.
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If you are worth $10,000, you shouldn't have any debt.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanJeff Bezos had long planned to sell several billion dollars ' worth of Amazon stock this week. He once again got lucky as the stock soared over 20% before he sold. Imagine cashing in four billion to clean up some debts.
link to original post
I guess that I am just old school. My thoughts are that if you are worth $250 billion you shouldn't have any debts.
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If you are worth $10,000, you shouldn't have any debt.
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I agree that no one should accrue debt but in todays world that is nearly impossible for 90% of people buying homes. Also, there are way to many advantage plays where credit card debt can be advantageous. I would guess that I have collected more than $100,000 in benefits from credit card offers.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanJeff Bezos had long planned to sell several billion dollars ' worth of Amazon stock this week. He once again got lucky as the stock soared over 20% before he sold. Imagine cashing in four billion to clean up some debts.
link to original post
I guess that I am just old school. My thoughts are that if you are worth $250 billion you shouldn't have any debts.
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If you are worth $10,000, you shouldn't have any debt.
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I agree that no one should accrue debt but in todays world that is nearly impossible for 90% of people buying homes. Also, there are way to many advantage plays where credit card debt can be advantageous. I would guess that I have collected more than $100,000 in benefits from credit card offers.
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I don’t know if I’m up to $100k, but I never accrue debt. In the sense I always pay full balance each month. I think for very rich people debt can sometimes have tax and/or estate planning benefits.
I abhor debt. If after a round of golf I owe a partner $2 and forget to pay I can’t stop thinking about it! I do have a mortgage on second house which is just for tax purposes. (I’d have to pay capital gains taxes to round up the money to pay it off).
Quote: billryanI don't consider paying your credit card in full each month as accruing debt, but people tend to spend more when they are charging something rather than paying cash so it is something to watch for.
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I have mixed feelings on that. My credit card bills generally run between $5k to $30k a month depending on purchases. I do consider it debt until I send the balance as a payment each month.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI don't consider paying your credit card in full each month as accruing debt, but people tend to spend more when they are charging something rather than paying cash so it is something to watch for.
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I have mixed feelings on that. My credit card bills generally run between $5k to $30k a month depending on purchases. I do consider it debt until I send the balance as a payment each month.
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I do, as well. I don't charge anything I don't have the money to pay for. When I had my HVAC system installed, I got an interest-free loan for 36 months, but paid it off in less than 18. I was making about $12 a month in interest, but it wasn't worth the sick feeling of owing money. My credit card bill last month was $532, which earned about $10 in cashback.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI don't consider paying your credit card in full each month as accruing debt, but people tend to spend more when they are charging something rather than paying cash so it is something to watch for.
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I have mixed feelings on that. My credit card bills generally run between $5k to $30k a month depending on purchases. I do consider it debt until I send the balance as a payment each month.
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I do, as well. I don't charge anything I don't have the money to pay for. When I had my HVAC system installed, I got an interest-free loan for 36 months, but paid it off in less than 18. I was making about $12 a month in interest, but it wasn't worth the sick feeling of owing money. My credit card bill last month was $532, which earned about $10 in cashback. It's usually closer to $1,000, but that is my mental limit.
Quote: SOOPOO
Wife has been digging deep into Snowden. This has led her to instruct me to buy BAH and EYES.
[l/q]
BAH up over 18% in less than a month! I may start selling my wife’s stock picks?!?
How many people were aware of this before it was announced? Maybe the ‘aunt’ of a Nebius employee is now a new millionaire?
Edit. NBIS finished up 34% today. It’s now a NINE bagger for me.
Quote: SOOPOOI expected to be down a bit now today, but was surprised to be up a little. Why? Nebius. It’s a 50 billion dollar (now) company that was continuing to lose money. Their estimated ‘earnings’ for last quarter by the ‘analysts’ averaged to LOSING $0.62 a share. Reported today…. They MADE $2.03 a share. So up over 20% today.
How many people were aware of this before it was announced? Maybe the ‘aunt’ of a Nebius employee is now a new millionaire?
Edit. NBIS finished up 34% today. It’s now a NINE bagger for me.
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Nebius continues to lead the charge. Up another $7 today. Intraday new ATH at +259%
Quote: billryanA study of the market dating back to the 1970s shows it usually declines by 5% or more between August 18th and October 11th in election years. More in non-Presidential election years.
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Do you believe it is ‘predictive’? Meaning you will liquidate today and rebuy on October 11?
My fear is the day after the election, if as predicted the Democrats win the House and possibly also the Senate, how the markets will respond to the expected chaos that will ensue.
Did you mean November 11?
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanJeff Bezos had long planned to sell several billion dollars ' worth of Amazon stock this week. He once again got lucky as the stock soared over 20% before he sold. Imagine cashing in four billion to clean up some debts.
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I guess that I am just old school. My thoughts are that if you are worth $250 billion you shouldn't have any debts.
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Buy-Borrow-Die
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanA study of the market dating back to the 1970s shows it usually declines by 5% or more between August 18th and October 11th in election years. More in non-Presidential election years.
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Do you believe it is ‘predictive’? Meaning you will liquidate today and rebuy on October 11?
My fear is the day after the election, if as predicted the Democrats win the House and possibly also the Senate, how the markets will respond to the expected chaos that will ensue.
Did you mean November 11?
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If one is in for the long haul, maintain the staus quo. The US economy does better under the scenario you described.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanA study of the market dating back to the 1970s shows it usually declines by 5% or more between August 18th and October 11th in election years. More in non-Presidential election years.
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Do you believe it is ‘predictive’? Meaning you will liquidate today and rebuy on October 11?
My fear is the day after the election, if as predicted the Democrats win the House and possibly also the Senate, how the markets will respond to the expected chaos that will ensue.
Did you mean November 11?
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What we've been seeing recently is how little effect the things they throw at us on "the news" has on markets. Elections and wars are all dwarfed by an earnings report from Nvidia. Most of the things we are told are big deals are actually click-seeking rageporn for one side or the other.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: DRichQuote: billryanJeff Bezos had long planned to sell several billion dollars ' worth of Amazon stock this week. He once again got lucky as the stock soared over 20% before he sold. Imagine cashing in four billion to clean up some debts.
link to original post
I guess that I am just old school. My thoughts are that if you are worth $250 billion you shouldn't have any debts.
link to original post
Buy-Borrow-Die
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My Godson married into a family that lives by that motto. He was skeptical, but ten years in, he lives in a nearly two million dollar house and drives a Range Rover. Hopefully it isn't all an illusion.
This is your chance to get rich quick. DRich is buying stock in Allegiant Airlines and you may become rich by shorting Allegiant Airlines stock.
My logic is that Allegiant has been one of the better airlines based on their last 5 years of performance. In the last two weeks their stock has went down from $105 to $75 with no company news. I believe it is just a fuel price play because of the middle east conflict. When oil prices get back to the $65 to $75 range I think Allegiants business model will prevail.
My buy in price is $75.25 so feel free to mock me tomorrow when it drops below $70.
Quote: billryanGood luck with it. I don't buy airline stock so I don't follow the industry. My friend retired from Allegiant a few years ago after the airline merged with her former company. She didn't have anything bad to say about it. I've never flown them.
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They are a very niche airline that mainly flies to smaller cities from leisure destinations. I have probably flown them at least 30 times over the years. They are considered a ULCC (ultra low cost carrier) that targets leisure travel. I believe they currently have about 130 jets.
I periodically check a stock’s ‘numbers’, not that I tend to do anything about it…. Today looked at IVR…. A kind of REIT I own. None of it makes any sense to me.
Price. $6.50
Dividend (yearly) $1.44
So yield is 22%.
P/E is 4.5! And ‘projected’ to decrease!
Why is there a stock paying greater than 20% dividend whose earnings EXCEED those dividends? It seems ‘Madoffesque’.
ALGT at $82. So far so good for DRich.
sometimes a stock just refuses to lower the dividend for a long timeQuote: SOOPOOHaven’t posted in a while. I tend to post way more on the ups than the downs. Despite NASDAQ at an ATH, WoV portfolio isn’t. At +259% after big run up yesterday.
I periodically check a stock’s ‘numbers’, not that I tend to do anything about it…. Today looked at IVR…. A kind of REIT I own. None of it makes any sense to me.
Price. $6.50
Dividend (yearly) $1.44
So yield is 22%.
P/E is 4.5! And ‘projected’ to decrease!
Why is there a stock paying greater than 20% dividend whose earnings EXCEED those dividends? It seems ‘Madoffesque’.
ALGT at $82. So far so good for DRich.
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sometimes the 'return' includes a return of the principal, in which case I have to agree that should not be posted as a 'dividend'
A Return of Principal is an accounting gimmick that defers taxes a bit down the road.
Payments are not taxable when received and lower your cost basis. You pay less taxes on your income, but more taxes when you sell.
Some stocks and ETFs are designed to defer taxes through ROI/ROP, so owning them in a tax-deferred account is redundant and costly.
EXTC cost $30 a share and pays $10 a year . You receive that $10 a share tax-free, but now the price you paid for the stock drops $10 for tax purposes. Eventually, your cost basis becomes zero, and your $10 payments become Capital Gains, so you are taxed on your payments as Capital Gains. If you sell the stock for $50, you owe capital gains on the entire $50, not just the difference between the $50 and your initial $30 investment.
Some dividends are taxable when you receive them; some dividends ( ROI) are not. I think it is important to know the differences so you can plan accordingly.
Quote: odiousgambitsometimes a stock just refuses to lower the dividend for a long timeQuote: SOOPOOHaven’t posted in a while. I tend to post way more on the ups than the downs. Despite NASDAQ at an ATH, WoV portfolio isn’t. At +259% after big run up yesterday.
I periodically check a stock’s ‘numbers’, not that I tend to do anything about it…. Today looked at IVR…. A kind of REIT I own. None of it makes any sense to me.
Price. $6.50
Dividend (yearly) $1.44
So yield is 22%.
P/E is 4.5! And ‘projected’ to decrease!
Why is there a stock paying greater than 20% dividend whose earnings EXCEED those dividends? It seems ‘Madoffesque’.
ALGT at $82. So far so good for DRich.
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sometimes the 'return' includes a return of the principal, in which case I have to agree that should not be posted as a 'dividend'
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But its income is EXCEEDING the dividend it is paying. So it is NOT a return of principal. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me. And looking at it, it appears the dividends are around 90% of the stated income for the stock.
Anyway, I’ve been adding to my AIPI position regularly.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitsometimes a stock just refuses to lower the dividend for a long timeQuote: SOOPOOHaven’t posted in a while. I tend to post way more on the ups than the downs. Despite NASDAQ at an ATH, WoV portfolio isn’t. At +259% after big run up yesterday.
I periodically check a stock’s ‘numbers’, not that I tend to do anything about it…. Today looked at IVR…. A kind of REIT I own. None of it makes any sense to me.
Price. $6.50
Dividend (yearly) $1.44
So yield is 22%.
P/E is 4.5! And ‘projected’ to decrease!
Why is there a stock paying greater than 20% dividend whose earnings EXCEED those dividends? It seems ‘Madoffesque’.
ALGT at $82. So far so good for DRich.
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sometimes the 'return' includes a return of the principal, in which case I have to agree that should not be posted as a 'dividend'
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But its income is EXCEEDING the dividend it is paying. So it is NOT a return of principal. That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me. And looking at it, it appears the dividends are around 90% of the stated income for the stock.
Anyway, I’ve been adding to my AIPI position regularly.
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They have to return 90% of their income to stockholders in order to qualify for the tax breaks that make the company profitable.
Quote: SOOPOO+258%. New ATH. Palantir leads the way….
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This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
Not in the WOV portfolio, but I keep increasing my stake in AIPI. If it keeps its 30% dividend and doesn’t crater I may have to make another charitable donation in BILLRYAN’s name.
Quote: SOOPOO
This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
You really don't understand the difference between people producing something of tangible value and speculative mania?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOO+258%. New ATH. Palantir leads the way….
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This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
Not in the WOV portfolio, but I keep increasing my stake in AIPI. If it keeps its 30% dividend and doesn’t crater I may have to make another charitable donation in BILLRYAN’s name.
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My stocks are doing very well too. Being my stock portfolio is for income (growth investment is in other things) ATH doesn't count for much, but it's within a percent of that and my income keeps increasing too, faster than inflation.
Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: SOOPOO
This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
You really don't understand the difference between people producing something of tangible value and speculative mania?
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I do! But these companies (mostly!) have growing earnings, and growing dividends, and thus growing market caps.
I do periodically mention a stock I own that is probably just up due to the ‘mania’ you cite.
I certainly don’t understand everything about the stock market, but I certainly understand enough about it to have made it work for me the past 4 decades of my investing life.
Frankly now I would think with world events and local political craziness, the ‘mania’ would be negative, not positive.
stock market investors clearly do not believe all of the negative news
news organizations make their money selling negative news - it attracts a great deal of attention
consider from USAfacts:
"The U.S. unemployment rate is 4.2% as of September 2026, which is low by historical standards (the long-term average is 5.65%)"
while some consumers are suffering due to inflation, to many in the middle class it's a minor thing
consider from Reuters:
"Economic Growth: The economy continues to expand with stable GDP growth, supported heavily by business investments in artificial intelligence and technology"
from WSJ:
"Spending: Overall consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient, bolstered by gains in the stock market for higher-income households."
from Investopedia:
"Macroeconomic Health: Broader indicators show that the economy is still growing. Total output (GDP) is expanding, and corporate earnings have remained resilient."
still, there will surely be a large downturn at sometime in the future but nobody can know when that will be
so, for a great many, including myself, there is no change in strategy
.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: GrahamThorpQuote: SOOPOO
This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
You really don't understand the difference between people producing something of tangible value and speculative mania?
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I do! But these companies (mostly!) have growing earnings, and growing dividends, and thus growing market caps.
Which are mostly the product of speculative ai mania and pass the parcel accounting. Strip that away and growth is essentially flat.
At some point someone has to actually produce something and sell it at a profit.
You invested in a fund which is essentially the bubble fund in all but name. That works great until the bubble bursts, you invested in that fund for a reason, you should know this.
The first is building your portfolio. This happens while you are working and earning.
The second stage is when you stop adding to your portfolio and start living off of it. Most people are fairly good at growing their portfolio, but its living off of it that can be problematic.
At this point in my life, I don't need my portfolio to grow, but I need a plan to live off it for possibly thirty years or more.
I know I did a great job growing my portfolio to this point.. I'm pretty sure I'm doing a good job living off it, but I'm not 100% confident.
Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: SOOPOOQuote: GrahamThorpQuote: SOOPOO
This thread may be a good example of confirmation bias! Now another ATH at +260%. A lot due to the ONE mutual fund I still own, TWCUX.
I really don’t understand it. All I keep hearing about is the disaster of the economy now, yet the companies that make up the economy are growing and profitable.
You really don't understand the difference between people producing something of tangible value and speculative mania?
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I do! But these companies (mostly!) have growing earnings, and growing dividends, and thus growing market caps.
Which are mostly the product of speculative ai mania and pass the parcel accounting. Strip that away and growth is essentially flat.
At some point someone has to actually produce something and sell it at a profit.
You invested in a fund which is essentially the bubble fund in all but name. That works great until the bubble bursts, you invested in that fund for a reason, you should know this.
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That's old-fashioned thinking. Grandpa bought stock in a company because it produced good widgets and demand for widgets was always rising. His grandson buys stock in a company because they promise to build a better widget, and he believes another fool with bigger pockets will pay more for the stock down the road. The product is irrelevant; momentum counts. It's a new day, with a very different group of investors, with a very different mentality when it comes to trading stocks.
Grandpa feared bubbles. His grandsons bath in them.
one of my 2 main investments - about one half of my stuff:
VGT at Vanguard - an exchange-traded fund that tracks a market-capitalization-weighted index of U.S. technology companies
Key 10-Year Performance Metrics
• Annualized Return: ~24.66% per year.
. and a cumulative 10 year total return of over 811% with dividends reinvested as of late 2026
it returned 48.68% in 2019 and 52.67% in 2023
.
Quote: billryan
That's old-fashioned thinking. The product is irrelevant; momentum counts. It's a new day, with a very different group of investors, with a very different mentality when it comes to trading stocks.
what happened to all of the "it's a new day" thinking investors in 2022 when the S&P dropped 19.4% and the Nasdaq dropped 33.1%?
and what kind of "new day" was it in 2008 when the S&P dropped 38.49% and the Nasdaq dropped 40.5%
some things will never change
the stock market becoming way overvalued and then taking a big tumble downwards is one of them
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryan
That's old-fashioned thinking. The product is irrelevant; momentum counts. It's a new day, with a very different group of investors, with a very different mentality when it comes to trading stocks.
what happened to all of the "it's a new day" thinking investors in 2022 when the S&P dropped 19.4% and the Nasdaq dropped 33.1%?
and what kind of "new day" was it in 2008 when the S&P dropped 38.49% and the Nasdaq dropped 40.5%
some things will never change
the stock market becoming way overvalued and then taking a big tumble downwards is one of them
.
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Here are some stats I think are quite relevant
In 1960, the NYSE handled about 2.5 million shares a day
By 1990, it was doing 135 million a day
In 2024, it grew to 1.3 billion shares.
This isn't your father's market. Why do you expect it to act like it is?
Computers changed the way trades were made. Then computers started trading, which changed things even more. Who is to say if computers trading with computers won't make the market more efficient than frat bros hunting their bonuses did?
What happened to all those investors from 2022? If they stayed the course, they are probably doing pretty well right now.
all of your stats are basically irrelevant
more people in the game and different ways of trading but the fundamentals of investing are the same
the people behind the computers will overrule any decisions they don't like made by computers
in 1954 the S&P 500 went up 55.99%
in 1958 it went up 38.06%
what do you think - ? do you think people didn't think it was a "new day" at that time - ?
the most the S&P has returned in any year in the 2000s is 28.9%
if the economy performs poorly do you really think stocks will continue to surge - ?
not a chance
the facts of investing are as such and will never change:
the market surges when the economy is strong and stocks become overvalued
when the economy sours many investors panic and the markets take a big tumble
that's the nature of human beings - they become overly optimistic and then overly fearful
the market could continue to grow and trade 10 billion shares in a day -
but a person's risk in investing will not be lessened
if computer trading made the stock market more efficient it would not be overvalued as much as it is currently
from various sources:
from Morningstar:
" Citing nine statistically significant 10-year real return predictors, analyses published via MarketWatch and Morningstar note that U.S. household equity allocations sit near all-time highs, signaling extreme overvaluation and projecting negative average annualized real total returns over the coming decade."
from Advisor Perspectives:
"Data tracked by Advisor Perspectives indicates that key valuation metrics show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical mean (ranging from 121% to 227% overvalued depending on the specific model)."
from Charles Schwab:
"• Shiller CAPE Ratio – The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, popularized by Robert Shiller, remains well above its long-run historical average of 17, placing current valuations in territory historically comparable to the dot-com bubble."
from Yahoo Finance:
"– The ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP has climbed near 200%, far past the traditional 100% to 120% warning threshold."
.
Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Quote: billryanYou do realize events like the .dot.com bubble made an awful lot of people an awful lot of money, right?
Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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... sheep get fleeced, and chickens get plucked
And in a part of the world, goats get... chucked.
But one thing is true, all over the world, and been true for hundreds of millions of years- eggs get laid. Be an egg!
The economy right now is in the mode of moving money around, from where it used to be to where it should and will be. Specifically, in a new generation of technology, featuring SI. Some people aren't happy about it, they were doing fine with their money in the "tech" companies that were really just media and advertising companies (Facebook, Netflix, Amazon, Apple etc.) but those people already had their turn. Now it's our turn.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeySpecifically, in a new generation of technology, featuring SI.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAH. Si. Bwahahahah
