WoV stock portfolio
February 2nd, 2026 at 1:07:25 AM
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I don't make money by betting against a stock. Some people make money by shorting stocks. I don't. I'm not sure how much more of an answer you want.
There are roughly 5,000 public companies in the USofA and many times that worldwide.I've always worked on the ones that will go up. Shorting stocks is a different skill set.
There are roughly 5,000 public companies in the USofA and many times that worldwide.I've always worked on the ones that will go up. Shorting stocks is a different skill set.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 2nd, 2026 at 5:53:27 AM
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Good question. A ways back i took a tip or two from brother in law who worked as a broker on the floor of the NYSE. No inside information, per se, but I knew which few stocks he traded. One was a company if I remember correctly called ‘Hansen’? It later split into 4 companies, one I think is now British Tobacco? So I own a bunch of BTI. It has always paid a big dividend and has generally gone up over the decades I’ve had it. I hate cigarettes more than virtually anyone I know. But I haven’t sold my BTI. Conundrum.
Edit. It was then called Imperial Tobacco. It’s up around 9 fold in the 3 decades I’ve owned it. Plus I ‘think’ it’s paid around a 5% dividend per year.
Edit. It was then called Imperial Tobacco. It’s up around 9 fold in the 3 decades I’ve owned it. Plus I ‘think’ it’s paid around a 5% dividend per year.
February 2nd, 2026 at 7:58:32 AM
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here is the AI answer I got when I asked if mutual funds charge fees other than the upfront fees -
"AI Overview
The Hidden Cost of Investment Fees -
Mutual funds absolutely pass on ongoing, often hidden, costs to investors beyond upfront fees, primarily through an annual expense ratio (typically 0.05%-2.00% of assets). These fees, which cover management, administrative, and marketing (12b-1) costs, are deducted directly from the fund's assets, reducing net returns.
Key Ongoing Costs Beyond Upfront Fees:
Expense Ratios: Covers management fees, administrative fees, and legal/accounting expenses.
12b-1 Fees: Annual marketing and distribution fees.
Transaction Costs: Commissions paid by the fund for buying/selling securities (brokerage fees), which are not always included in the expense ratio.
Redemption/Exit Fees: Charged when selling shares within a specific timeframe.
Exchange Fees: Fees for moving money between funds in the same family.
These costs are automatically deducted from the fund's net asset value (NAV), meaning investors pay them indirectly through lower performance. "
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here is the AI answer I got when I asked if mutual funds charge fees other than the upfront fees -
"AI Overview
The Hidden Cost of Investment Fees -
Mutual funds absolutely pass on ongoing, often hidden, costs to investors beyond upfront fees, primarily through an annual expense ratio (typically 0.05%-2.00% of assets). These fees, which cover management, administrative, and marketing (12b-1) costs, are deducted directly from the fund's assets, reducing net returns.
Key Ongoing Costs Beyond Upfront Fees:
Expense Ratios: Covers management fees, administrative fees, and legal/accounting expenses.
12b-1 Fees: Annual marketing and distribution fees.
Transaction Costs: Commissions paid by the fund for buying/selling securities (brokerage fees), which are not always included in the expense ratio.
Redemption/Exit Fees: Charged when selling shares within a specific timeframe.
Exchange Fees: Fees for moving money between funds in the same family.
These costs are automatically deducted from the fund's net asset value (NAV), meaning investors pay them indirectly through lower performance. "
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 2nd, 2026 at 9:22:28 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
here is the AI answer I got when I asked if mutual funds charge fees other than the upfront fees -
"AI Overview
The Hidden Cost of Investment Fees -
Mutual funds absolutely pass on ongoing, often hidden, costs to investors beyond upfront fees, primarily through an annual expense ratio (typically 0.05%-2.00% of assets). These fees, which cover management, administrative, and marketing (12b-1) costs, are deducted directly from the fund's assets, reducing net returns.
Key Ongoing Costs Beyond Upfront Fees:
Expense Ratios: Covers management fees, administrative fees, and legal/accounting expenses.
12b-1 Fees: Annual marketing and distribution fees.
Transaction Costs: Commissions paid by the fund for buying/selling securities (brokerage fees), which are not always included in the expense ratio.
Redemption/Exit Fees: Charged when selling shares within a specific timeframe.
Exchange Fees: Fees for moving money between funds in the same family.
These costs are automatically deducted from the fund's net asset value (NAV), meaning investors pay them indirectly through lower performance. "
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??
Did you for one second ever believe MF’s didn’t have fees deducted from the overall assets a MF holds?
I’ll give an example. Say I have $1 million in TWCUX.
Assume 1% annual fee (it’s slightly less, but easier to use 1% for the example). Assume around 250 trading days a year. So I am paying DAILY
1,000,000 x1% per year. ($10k). Divided by 250 = $40
That’s $40 A DAY.
As I’ve said before, for technical reasons when I first bought this it was WAY easier to have all the money in that account in one place. So even though I hate paying that (hidden) fee, I’ve kept it. It has FAR exceeded expectations. It’s been so heavy in the big tech successes it’s around 8 fold up from when I bought it. It’s in a tax deferred account so I’ll start paying taxes when I hit mandatory distribution age.
February 2nd, 2026 at 10:03:00 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOSay I have $1 million in TWCUX
very nice pick
I had one of their funds a long time ago before I got into index investing
can't remember which one
but I remember the fund had one great year - returned about 40%
I hadn't been following its performance - when I checked it at the end of the year I was shocked __________:)
other years were less than satsfactory to me
but your pick TWCUX has been very strong for a long time
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 2nd, 2026 at 11:16:30 AM
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TWCUX has had a rather mediocre last five years, as it is in the middle of the middle third of such funds. It carries an average rating of sell, and has high fees. What's not to love?
I owned Ultra and Vista back in the Clinton era, when they had an incredible two-year run.
I owned Ultra and Vista back in the Clinton era, when they had an incredible two-year run.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 2nd, 2026 at 11:51:10 AM
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"AI Overview
American Century Ultra Fund Investor Class (TWCUX) has shown strong long-term performance, with an annualized return of approximately 17.1 over the last 10 years (as of early 2026).
As a large-growth fund, it has consistently delivered competitive returns, including a 12.6% one-year return and 27.9% over three years, often outperforming or closely matching its category.
10-Year Performance: ~17.1% annualized (Grade A).
5-Year Performance: ~11.7% annualized. 1-Year Performance: ~12.6%.
Investment Type: Large-growth, no-load mutual fund.Expense Ratio: 0.91%, which is slightly lower than the category average.Performance Summary:
The fund has demonstrated strong long-term growth, with 10-year returns often exceeding 15%.
It has historically provided high, though sometimes volatile, returns."
"AI Overview
While a precise percentage of all global mutual funds returning over 17% over the last 10 years is not universally defined, data shows such high performance is rare, generally limited to top-tier equity funds
Average Returns: Generally, the average annualized return for equity mutual funds is much lower, often in the 9-12% range, with 17%+ representing top-percentile performance.
Market Context: Such high returns are often linked to specific sectors, like technology, and are not reflective of the broader, diversified mutual fund landscape.
Risk Factors: These high-performing funds are often associated with high volatility and are not guaranteed to maintain such returns in the future. "
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"AI Overview
American Century Ultra Fund Investor Class (TWCUX) has shown strong long-term performance, with an annualized return of approximately 17.1 over the last 10 years (as of early 2026).
As a large-growth fund, it has consistently delivered competitive returns, including a 12.6% one-year return and 27.9% over three years, often outperforming or closely matching its category.
10-Year Performance: ~17.1% annualized (Grade A).
5-Year Performance: ~11.7% annualized. 1-Year Performance: ~12.6%.
Investment Type: Large-growth, no-load mutual fund.Expense Ratio: 0.91%, which is slightly lower than the category average.Performance Summary:
The fund has demonstrated strong long-term growth, with 10-year returns often exceeding 15%.
It has historically provided high, though sometimes volatile, returns."
"AI Overview
While a precise percentage of all global mutual funds returning over 17% over the last 10 years is not universally defined, data shows such high performance is rare, generally limited to top-tier equity funds
Average Returns: Generally, the average annualized return for equity mutual funds is much lower, often in the 9-12% range, with 17%+ representing top-percentile performance.
Market Context: Such high returns are often linked to specific sectors, like technology, and are not reflective of the broader, diversified mutual fund landscape.
Risk Factors: These high-performing funds are often associated with high volatility and are not guaranteed to maintain such returns in the future. "
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 2nd, 2026 at 12:50:53 PM
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It's had a very mediocre last five years. What the five years before that have to do with recent performance is not very relevant.
It's trailed the vaunted S&P 500 by wide margins over the last five years.
When you have a million dollars in a fund and the annual return drops from the low $200,000s from 2015 to 2020 to under $130,000 from 2021-2026, that is real money that was missed out on. It's still a very nice return, but it is disappointing when compared to past results.
It's gone from doubling every forty months to taking over seventy months. A million here, a million there, before long, it gets into real money.
It's trailed the vaunted S&P 500 by wide margins over the last five years.
When you have a million dollars in a fund and the annual return drops from the low $200,000s from 2015 to 2020 to under $130,000 from 2021-2026, that is real money that was missed out on. It's still a very nice return, but it is disappointing when compared to past results.
It's gone from doubling every forty months to taking over seventy months. A million here, a million there, before long, it gets into real money.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 2nd, 2026 at 1:21:31 PM
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it would be interesting to hear Soopoo weigh in on this
in my view the 10 year return is much more significant than the return of the last 5 years
it is a much longer term
if I was a betting man, I would bet that Soopoo is not disappointed by the last 5 years and that he won't be selling
"AI Overview
American Century Ultra Investor (TWCUX) has mixed, conflicting ratings,, with some analysts indicating a "Strong Buy" based on technical indicators and others classifying it as a "Sell" (Zacks Rank 4). It is a large-cap growth fund with a 4-star Morningstar rating. It has experienced high volatility (17-19% standard deviation) and has underperformed the S&P 500 over 1, 3, and 5-year periods, though it has outperformed in the 10-year period
Investment Type: Large-growth, no-load mutual fund.Expense Ratio: 0.91%, which is slightly lower than the category average.:"
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it would be interesting to hear Soopoo weigh in on this
in my view the 10 year return is much more significant than the return of the last 5 years
it is a much longer term
if I was a betting man, I would bet that Soopoo is not disappointed by the last 5 years and that he won't be selling
Quote: billryanIt carries an average rating of sell, and has high fees.
"AI Overview
American Century Ultra Investor (TWCUX) has mixed, conflicting ratings,, with some analysts indicating a "Strong Buy" based on technical indicators and others classifying it as a "Sell" (Zacks Rank 4). It is a large-cap growth fund with a 4-star Morningstar rating. It has experienced high volatility (17-19% standard deviation) and has underperformed the S&P 500 over 1, 3, and 5-year periods, though it has outperformed in the 10-year period
Investment Type: Large-growth, no-load mutual fund.Expense Ratio: 0.91%, which is slightly lower than the category average.:"
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 2nd, 2026 at 1:55:20 PM
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I think every investor holds on to some investments for too long, clinging to memories of past performance. I had a few stocks I'd owned for close to fifty years that I'd been reluctant to sell, but that is when discipline comes in.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 2nd, 2026 at 2:05:39 PM
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Quote: billryanI think every investor holds on to some investments for too long, clinging to memories of past performance. I had a few stocks I'd owned for close to fifty years that I'd been reluctant to sell, but that is when discipline comes in.
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selling often means capital gains taxes
and taxes are never a good thing
I will never sell (unless I need money for something)
that is why I've gone with indexes
not trying to beat the market - am happy to just match it - or come very, very close to that
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 2nd, 2026 at 2:48:35 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
it would be interesting to hear Soopoo weigh in on this
in my view the 10 year return is much more significant than the return of the last 5 years
it is a much longer term
if I was a betting man, I would bet that Soopoo is not disappointed by the last 5 years and that he won't be sellingQuote: billryanIt carries an average rating of sell, and has high fees.
"AI Overview
American Century Ultra Investor (TWCUX) has mixed, conflicting ratings,, with some analysts indicating a "Strong Buy" based on technical indicators and others classifying it as a "Sell" (Zacks Rank 4). It is a large-cap growth fund with a 4-star Morningstar rating. It has experienced high volatility (17-19% standard deviation) and has underperformed the S&P 500 over 1, 3, and 5-year periods, though it has outperformed in the 10-year period
Investment Type: Large-growth, no-load mutual fund.Expense Ratio: 0.91%, which is slightly lower than the category average.:"
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I’m more happy with the 25 year return. Pretty sure all the money put in this was 2000-2002.
As I’ve said, at the time, it made sense to put a bunch of money into 1 vehicle. I think I picked TWCUX because a friend said ‘he liked it’.
I’ve thought about selling quite often along the way, as I hate paying that nearly 1% internal hidden fee.
If you asked me if I think it will beat any index like we frequently mention, I’d bet against that. The 1% is a pretty big hurdle to overcome. I certainly would never add to my position in it. But I seem to be happy watching it go up and up.
February 2nd, 2026 at 6:22:07 PM
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Bitcoin is under $80,000, down from $126,000, with $60,000 in sight.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 3rd, 2026 at 5:37:34 AM
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Quote: billryanBitcoin is under $80,000, down from $126,000, with $60,000 in sight.
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Wanna bet? I’ll bet you whatever you want Bitcoin doesn’t drop to $60k this year. I think that easily encompasses ‘in sight’. Like I’ll by a gross of socks for your mission, and you’ll send me two dozen Josh Allen logo golf balls?
Offer good today!
February 3rd, 2026 at 6:40:59 AM
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I don't know what a dozen Josh Allen balls go for, so let's call it a dollar amount, up to $100. I'll wager Bitcoin hits $60,000 before it hits 100,000.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 3rd, 2026 at 8:44:27 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOIn my travels I’ve never been offered a deal at less than 0.50%.
"AI Overview
Vanguard actively advertises and is widely recognized for its low-cost investment structure. As of early 2026, the firm reinforced this reputation by slashing fees on numerous funds, reducing its average expense ratio to 0.06%.
Vanguard is known for having some of the lowest expense ratios in the industry, with an average expense ratio of 0.06% to 0.07% for its mutual funds and ETFs as of early 2026. This is roughly 84% lower than the industry average, allowing investors to keep more of their returns. Many of their index funds and ETFs have even lower expense ratios, often below 0.05%.
Low-Cost by Design": Founded in 1975, Vanguard operates under a unique, investor-owned structure, meaning the funds (and therefore the investors) own Vanguard, allowing the firm to pass economies of scale directly to clients rather than focusing on corporate profits."
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 3rd, 2026 at 9:34:01 AM
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Vanguard might work well for Soopoo, as he has a large account, but I've always found them geared toward institutions and high-net-worth individuals rather than smaller retail accounts. One financial site compared Fidelity and Vanguard, and it was hard to say who won. There were a number of categories, and while Fidelity won in things like customer service, ease of use, and most of the others, Vanguard blew Fidelity away on fees. It was a big difference- close to a million dollars over the long term.
At 68, I'm not worried about how fees will affect my long-term results. At 48, it was a concern. When every dollar taken in fees is a dollar that won't compound for the next thirty years, it is essential that you keep fees to a minimum.
At 68, I'm not worried about how fees will affect my long-term results. At 48, it was a concern. When every dollar taken in fees is a dollar that won't compound for the next thirty years, it is essential that you keep fees to a minimum.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 3rd, 2026 at 9:42:30 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOIn my travels I’ve never been offered a deal at less than 0.50%.
"AI Overview
Vanguard actively advertises and is widely recognized for its low-cost investment structure. As of early 2026, the firm reinforced this reputation by slashing fees on numerous funds, reducing its average expense ratio to 0.06%.
Vanguard is known for having some of the lowest expense ratios in the industry, with an average expense ratio of 0.06% to 0.07% for its mutual funds and ETFs as of early 2026. This is roughly 84% lower than the industry average, allowing investors to keep more of their returns. Many of their index funds and ETFs have even lower expense ratios, often below 0.05%.
Low-Cost by Design": Founded in 1975, Vanguard operates under a unique, investor-owned structure, meaning the funds (and therefore the investors) own Vanguard, allowing the firm to pass economies of scale directly to clients rather than focusing on corporate profits."
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If you don’t understand what I posted you won’t know what or how to ask your AI friend the right question…!
I own many individual ETFs with those low ‘expense ratios’.
What I was discussing is hiring a money manager. He would charge me DIRECTLY that 0.50% I mentioned. For likely picking those low expense ratio ETFs you mention.
At one point I had no choice but to use one of these experts, and we negotiated our rate down to that 1/2% I’ve been mentioning. He literally would put our $$ in 5 different ‘advisor funds’ that you needed ‘an advisor’ to have access to. The funds were generally low expense ratio, but not as low as the ones you cite. So paying the expense ratio, paying the advisor, you are behind the 8 ball before you even start.
After my whining, I was allowed to ‘self manage’ half of my money there. I think I just dumped half of that in SPY and half in QQQ. I’ll give you three guesses as to who outperformed who….
February 3rd, 2026 at 9:46:02 AM
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.Quote: billryanI don't know what a dozen Josh Allen balls go for, so let's call it a dollar amount, up to $100. I'll wager Bitcoin hits $60,000 before it hits 100,000.
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Ok. I’ll consider our bet for $25 on! As I do with all my bets here, I expect YOU to be the one who remembers it!
February 3rd, 2026 at 9:55:43 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO.Quote: billryanI don't know what a dozen Josh Allen balls go for, so let's call it a dollar amount, up to $100. I'll wager Bitcoin hits $60,000 before it hits 100,000.
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Ok. I’ll consider our bet for $25 on! As I do with all my bets here, I expect YOU to be the one who remembers it!
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Consider it a bet for $25.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 4th, 2026 at 12:56:49 PM
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In WoV portfolio news, I have some fake news to report. It appears to be a new ATH intraday today. But, today’s market is a tank for TSLA, META, NVDA, and the like. After the market closes my TWCUX will crater, dragging down the portfolio. The non big stocks had a great day today. Moved more money into MMA.
February 4th, 2026 at 1:24:07 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOIn WoV portfolio news, I have some fake news to report. It appears to be a new ATH intraday today. But, today’s market is a tank for TSLA, META, NVDA, and the like. After the market closes my TWCUX will crater, dragging down the portfolio. The non big stocks had a great day today. Moved more money into MMA.
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I'm "buying big time" after the past couple of days. Especially MU & AMD. Folks that don't understand technology and what those companies manufacture (with respect to AI) are about to create new millionaires <g>
AI is not only about "compute" - it's ALSO about memory. If that doesn't make sense, consider how much longer it takes to "compute" 2 + 2 when you have to find a calculator. <g> If you can do it "in memory", you'll do it faster. Right?
If I'd known I was going to live this long, I would have moisturized more.
February 5th, 2026 at 10:32:56 AM
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I don't get to be excited very often when it comes to the stock market. Today I just looked and my Hershey stock is up over $18,000 today. Granted, the rest of my portfolio is not looking very good.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
February 5th, 2026 at 1:53:05 PM
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Dow hovering at 49k for a few weeks.
I sold to cash at 47k.
39k (20% drop) below that would be nice for me to buy back in
I sold to cash at 47k.
39k (20% drop) below that would be nice for me to buy back in
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 5th, 2026 at 2:23:52 PM
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Good luck. I'm sure you know most experts warn against trying to time the market.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 5th, 2026 at 3:01:09 PM
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Down to +230% from my last week high of +235%. Oh well. But the disaster is approaching…. If BTC drops below $60k I owe BR .000417 BTC. ($25).
I hate posting here on the down days….
I hate posting here on the down days….
February 5th, 2026 at 3:20:59 PM
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Three steps forward and two steps back.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 5th, 2026 at 5:21:23 PM
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Quote: SOOPOODown to +230% from my last week high of +235%. Oh well. But the disaster is approaching…. If BTC drops below $60k I owe BR .000417 BTC. ($25).
I hate posting here on the down days….
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I saw it at $60.5k today at one point. It looks like it is back to $64k now.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
February 5th, 2026 at 5:26:06 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOODown to +230% from my last week high of +235%. Oh well. But the disaster is approaching…. If BTC drops below $60k I owe BR .000417 BTC. ($25).
I hate posting here on the down days….
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I saw it at $60.5k today at one point. It looks like it is back to $64k now.
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Bitcoin doesn't have an official closing price like stocks do, so, in the interest of fairness, I don't think a momentary plunge below 60K counts as a win. Several hours may do it, but I'll leave that to Soopoo.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 5th, 2026 at 5:27:20 PM
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Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOODown to +230% from my last week high of +235%. Oh well. But the disaster is approaching…. If BTC drops below $60k I owe BR .000417 BTC. ($25).
I hate posting here on the down days….
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I saw it at $60.5k today at one point. It looks like it is back to $64k now.
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Bitcoin doesn't have an official closing price like stocks do, so, in the interest of fairness, I don't think a momentary plunge below 60K counts as a win. Several hours may do it, but I'll leave that to Soopoo.
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You are correct, it trades 24 hours a day since it is global.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
February 6th, 2026 at 6:34:13 AM
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the nasdaq and the s&p 500 are now down (a very small %) year to date
not saying that means anything
also not saying that it doesn't mean anything
I am well aware that I have exactly ZERO ability to predict the near future movement of stocks
as does everybody else
I'm a long term guy - so I'm like - whatever
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the nasdaq and the s&p 500 are now down (a very small %) year to date
not saying that means anything
also not saying that it doesn't mean anything
I am well aware that I have exactly ZERO ability to predict the near future movement of stocks
as does everybody else
I'm a long term guy - so I'm like - whatever
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 6th, 2026 at 6:43:54 AM
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Investing is a long-term obligation, so who cares what the market does in the short run. Unless you are pulling money out to finance a housed or big item ticket, the short term is meaningless.
I can't tell you which way the next 100-point swing will go, but I know with certainty which way the next 100 percent swing will be.
I can't tell you which way the next 100-point swing will go, but I know with certainty which way the next 100 percent swing will be.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 6th, 2026 at 6:45:54 AM
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Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOODown to +230% from my last week high of +235%. Oh well. But the disaster is approaching…. If BTC drops below $60k I owe BR .000417 BTC. ($25).
I hate posting here on the down days….
link to original post
I saw it at $60.5k today at one point. It looks like it is back to $64k now.
link to original post
Bitcoin doesn't have an official closing price like stocks do, so, in the interest of fairness, I don't think a momentary plunge below 60K counts as a win. Several hours may do it, but I'll leave that to Soopoo.
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If at any point in time you would be able to buy a Bitcoin for a penny less that $60k I would declare you the winner. I think it came within $100 of you winning.
Market soaring this morning. Haven’t looked at the news yet to know why. Probably some politician said something….
February 6th, 2026 at 6:53:28 AM
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Investing for the common man just got a bit easier. I'm not sure they intended to, but Congress passed a bill that essentially does away with the Qualified Investor status and allows everyone to buy financial instruments that were formerly available only to the rich.
Phoenix Capital, for example, offers 9% bonds to the public but also offers 13% bonds to Qualified Investors. Previously, one needed a large income plus a high net worth to qualify as an Q.I. Now, an investor can pass an exam demonstrating an understanding of the risks, and if they meet the educational requirements, they can be exempt from the financial exam.
Hedge funds can now open to educated investors, not just wealthy ones, although they don't have to.
Phoenix Capital, for example, offers 9% bonds to the public but also offers 13% bonds to Qualified Investors. Previously, one needed a large income plus a high net worth to qualify as an Q.I. Now, an investor can pass an exam demonstrating an understanding of the risks, and if they meet the educational requirements, they can be exempt from the financial exam.
Hedge funds can now open to educated investors, not just wealthy ones, although they don't have to.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 6th, 2026 at 8:04:38 AM
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My best stock today is Nebius. Up over 11%. Peeked at its info. Around 20 billion market cap.
Why?
Revenue a paltry $340 million. That’s revenue, not profit!
Estimated next earnings… in a few days….LOSS OF $1.14 per share. It’s around $82 a share now. Estimated earnings for rest of year expected to lose $.5 each quarter next 3 quarters as well.
9 months ago you could have bought it for $18. I got in a little later in the high 20’s. I think I’m going to sell around 1/3 to secure a profit even if it goes bankrupt. And keep the other 2/3 as it skyrockets like an Apple or TSLA.
Edit. Sold 1/3 at $83.10
Why?
Revenue a paltry $340 million. That’s revenue, not profit!
Estimated next earnings… in a few days….LOSS OF $1.14 per share. It’s around $82 a share now. Estimated earnings for rest of year expected to lose $.5 each quarter next 3 quarters as well.
9 months ago you could have bought it for $18. I got in a little later in the high 20’s. I think I’m going to sell around 1/3 to secure a profit even if it goes bankrupt. And keep the other 2/3 as it skyrockets like an Apple or TSLA.
Edit. Sold 1/3 at $83.10
February 6th, 2026 at 11:30:31 AM
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My pf cosists of 5 motgage REITS and Gold. The Stocks since 3/2020 and Gold since 9/2004. Right now 7% cash.
Happy Investing !
Happy Investing !
The Red Sox won 8-in-a-row to win a World Series. Thats an Octopus, too.
No Octopus seen in Fenway, however...
February 6th, 2026 at 12:31:06 PM
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Quote: billryanGood luck. I'm sure you know most experts warn against trying to time the market.
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ugg.. now dow at 50k.
yup.. gambled on stock market crashing and failed.
on yesterday's plunge, i spent 1/2 the $ from the total market fund i liquidated (when dow =47k) into 1 tech stock that had $100M expenses last year and no income, yet.
More gambling...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 6th, 2026 at 3:12:20 PM
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New ATH at +236%.
I think it was 3 days ago I was hating being in stocks….
Sold that portion of Nebius…. Only went up another 4% in the hours after! Into the MMA…
I think it was 3 days ago I was hating being in stocks….
Sold that portion of Nebius…. Only went up another 4% in the hours after! Into the MMA…
February 7th, 2026 at 2:25:20 AM
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I was really smelling a bear market coming on with yesterday to be when the other shoe dropped
I think I was right that a lot of people were uneasy. Just shows how you can't act on this stuff, and glad I didn't
I think I was right that a lot of people were uneasy. Just shows how you can't act on this stuff, and glad I didn't
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 7th, 2026 at 4:46:23 AM
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.
there is a pattern that happens over and over again until there is a true bear market
if the indices fall a fair amount in a few days (a few % points) investors with cash on hand buy the dips and push stocks back up
.
there is a pattern that happens over and over again until there is a true bear market
if the indices fall a fair amount in a few days (a few % points) investors with cash on hand buy the dips and push stocks back up
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 7, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 10th, 2026 at 8:19:42 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
there is a pattern that happens over and over again until there is a true bear market
if the indices fall a fair amount in a few days (a few % points) investors with cash on hand buy the dips and push stocks back up
.
link to original post
Those aren't investors; they are day traders. Investors buy a stock for it's fundimentals, not because it dropped a point or two.
The market is irrational. Money is fleeing from crypto, and traditional storage vessels like gold and silver are now as speculative as the S&P. I think almost everyone is anticipating a crash but greed is keeping them(us) from moving the cash into safer pastures.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
February 10th, 2026 at 9:40:27 AM
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Quote: billryanI think almost everyone is anticipating a crash
"AI Overview
As of February 2026, 25% of Americans believe the stock market will go down in the coming months, while 50% expect it to rise. Despite high-profile warnings about overvaluation, only a quarter of the public currently anticipates a decline, with sentiment generally remaining optimistic.
Key Findings on Market Sentiment (Early 2026):
Gallup Poll (Feb 2026): 25% expect a decline, 50% expect a rise, and 17% expect it to remain the same.
Expert Outllook : While some indicators, such as the Buffett indicator, are signaling high risk, most institutional forecasts for 2026 still suggest continued, albeit moderate, growth. "
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 10th, 2026 at 10:01:44 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI think almost everyone is anticipating a crash
"AI Overview
As of February 2026, 25% of Americans believe the stock market will go down in the coming months, while 50% expect it to rise. Despite high-profile warnings about overvaluation, only a quarter of the public currently anticipates a decline, with sentiment generally remaining optimistic.
Key Findings on Market Sentiment (Early 2026):
Gallup Poll (Feb 2026): 25% expect a decline, 50% expect a rise, and 17% expect it to remain the same.
That's not the same thing. I presume the stock market will continue to rise "in the coming months" as ai companies give money to each other and hype their own stock. I also think it will crash when people work out they are losing millions of dollars every day. A crash is inevitable for obvious structural reasons to even the casual observer, but timing it is very difficult.
I'd add consumer sentiment is an utterly useless metric, except as a mild contrarian indicator. This has been proven with statistical significance. Best to just ignore it.
February 10th, 2026 at 11:52:58 AM
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Quote: DougGander
That's not the same thing. I presume the stock market will continue to rise "in the coming months" as ai companies give money to each other and hype their own stock. I also think it will crash when people work out they are losing millions of dollars every day. A crash is inevitable for obvious structural reasons to even the casual observer, but timing it is very difficult.
I'd add consumer sentiment is an utterly useless metric, except as a mild contrarian indicator. This has been proven with statistical significance. Best to just ignore it.
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agree that consumer sentiment is meaningless
I just posted that as a response to someone saying the opposite
"timing is very difficult"__________I would agree but change that to "timing is impossible"
I think if you go back to prior years you had many people predicting a crash every single year
there will certainly be a crash - but it may be several years from now_________or maybe much sooner_____as the very old song goes "it's not for me to say"
of course some will say - "this time it's different" - but I don't think so
"AI Overview
Yes, stock market crashes are predicted by various analysts, commentators, and investors almost every single year. Despite these constant, often annual, warnings of impending doom, the market has historically trended upward in the long run. While major crashes occur periodically—roughly every seven to eight years—predicting the exact timing is impossible.
Key insights regarding the, at times, annual predictions of a stock market crash:
The "Permabear" Phenomenon: Many analysts or market commentators become "perma-bears," often focusing on potential, yet recurring, risks like AI bubbles, high valuations, or geopolitical events that could trigger a crash, as seen in Yahoo Finance UK articles and YouTube videos.
Failed Predictions: Warnings of a crash are frequent, but markets often deliver positive returns for years on end, as evidenced by the, at times, consistent, strong, multi-year performance of the S&P 500, according to Yahoo Finance UK.
Indicators vs. Timing: While indicators like the Buffett indicator (comparing GDP to total market value) can signal that the market is overvalued, they do not pinpoint when a downturn will occur.
The "Why" Behind the Warnings: Fear is a powerful market driver, and as investor optimism hits high points, the probability of a sharp correction increases, fueling yearly predictions"
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 10, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
February 11th, 2026 at 3:04:28 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster
I think if you go back to prior years you had many people predicting a crash every single year
there will certainly be a crash - but it may be several years from now_________or maybe much sooner_____as the very old song goes "it's not for me to say"
of course some will say - "this time it's different" - but I don't think so
I think what you are missing is that while crashes may be difficult to predict the subjective probability of them does go up and down.
If the probability of a crash goes up to 40% from 5% it still likely will not occur. However that is a significant shift for investment purposes. The fact a crash has not occurred in the recent past does not mean very much. A turkey is not safer because many days have passed without it being slaughtered.
