Quote: odiousgambit
One thing that is said about term life is "the people your age that are healthy will drop term life, while the unhealthy will keep it, so it’s going to be priced as if you’re unhealthy" ... this has got to be kicking in soon I think
It has already kicked in. I paid around $40 a month for 30 years and now it is up to $550 a month, Obviously if I knew when I would die and the premium increases it would be easy math. I think I am resolved to keep paying the increasing payment and hope I die soon to save some money.
Quote: billryanI'd shop around, as rates vary widely.
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I have, no one will even offer me a policy because of my medical conditions. The company I am with would cancel me today if they knew of my conditions. Fortunately, since I have been with them for over 30 years they are just increasing my premium by a standard amount that they would charge anyone my age.
In the early 1960s, Buffett began buying shares in Berkshire Hathaway, a small textile mill play. They were downsizing, closing mills and buying back stock. Buffett intended to hold the stock short-term and sell his shares at the next stock buyback. He met the CEO, a man called Stanton, and informed him of his intent to sell the shares at the stated price of $11.50 a share. A few weeks later, an offer arrives in the mail. Stanton offered to buy all of Buffett's shares, but at $11.38, not the previously mentioned $11.50. Buffett was pissed at being nickel-and-dimed, so instead of selling his shares, he bought more, eventually unseating Stanton and taking control of the company.
The shares he had agreed to sell for $11.50 each now sell for over $700,000 each.
Warren Buffett is now 95 years old
he is still active in his company
pretty amazing - will he still be active at age 100 -? - maybe
"AI Overview
Yes, Warren Buffett still works. While he officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, he remains on as the company's chairman and still goes into the office every day.Although he is no longer responsible for the day-to-day operations or the heavy lifting of managing the entire conglomerate—which are now handled by his successor, CEO Greg Abel—Buffett remains actively involved. He continues to offer investment ideas, contribute to decision-making, and help spot new opportunities.
Warren Buffett’s net worth is estimated to be approximately $145 billion to $150 billion"
Similar good news for IBM, and MP! I bought MP because it was granddaughter’s initials! I’m wondering how many administration officials decided Tuesday was a good time to buy those stocks?!
Also I joked about NVDA wasting resources to pay a penny dividend each quarter. They heeded my advice and increased it 2500% to a quarter a quarter. Still a measly 1/2% but better than nothing. I own 4 individual shares. What should I do with the $1 I’ll be getting?
I was reinvesting the seventeen cents I was getting from NvDei and don't think I will change my strategy for the extra $4.08. I just quickened the accumulation of shares. I love the new buyback program.
Quote: billryanRigetti is in a death race with a dozen or so similar companies. The one or two who survive will do very well but the others will fade away. It will be a few years before the market decides.
I was reinvesting the seventeen cents I was getting from NvDei and don't think I will change my strategy for the extra $4.08. I just quickened the accumulation of shares. I love the new buyback program.
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As usual, the buyback program adds value for shareholders without them having to pay tax on that added value until they sell. And that’s at a lower capital gains rate compared to the ordinary income rate it would be taxed at if it were distributed as a dividend. Sounds like they are taking advice from the biggest (legal) tax avoider in US history, Mr. Warren Buffet. If I ever have a few hours to burn I may try and figure out how many shares of NVDA I actually own above the 4 direct shares. DIA, SPY, QQQ, TWCUX, AOA, etc…
Buffett wouldn't have paid any dividend
investors now seem to me to be very bullish
maybe it's the new people coming in to the markets
the war which has harmed the finances of a great many people here and abroad hasn't seemed to faze this bullishness
is all of this positivity re stocks realistic - ?
idk
"AI Overview
U.S. stocks recently notched their eighth consecutive winning week, capping off an impressive rally that has major indexes—including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average—hovering around all-time highs.
This eight-week streak marks the longest stretch of weekly gains for the broader market since 2023. The rally has been heavily driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings reports, and falling bond yields"
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
investors now seem to me to be very bullish
is all of this positivity re stocks realistic - ?
strong corporate earnings reports,
I trimmed out the fluff. Stocks SHOULD go up if the companies have ‘strong corporate earnings’. Heck, that’s what a company is supposed to do!
EARN.
I hate when a stock plummets because they only made a billion dollars but some expert predicted they’d make 1.1 billion.
And also bemoan the rise when they make $1 when someone predicted they’d lose $2.
my largest holding by far, VGT, has beaten the S&P 500 handily for several years
in many years of investing it's the only fund I've ever owned that has done that
on the downside:
if there is a correction it will surely take a large hit
"AI Overview
the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has historically outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin over both medium- and long-term horizons.
Long-term performance highlights include:
Decade Returns: Over the past 10 years, VGT has delivered annualized returns of roughly 25.50% easily outpacing the S&P 500's (VOO) annualized returns of 15.79%"
.
You can knock me over with a feather. I was so sure we would have to suffer through a recession by now. I am glad to say I did not act on it ... didn't sell any stocks. I am more likely to start buying when stocks decline, but I do try to stick to the rebalancing ruleQuote: lilredrooster.
investors now seem to me to be very bullish
maybe it's the new people coming in to the markets
the war which has harmed the finances of a great many people here and abroad hasn't seemed to faze this bullishness
is all of this positivity re stocks realistic - ?
idk
"AI Overview
U.S. stocks recently notched their eighth consecutive winning week, capping off an impressive rally that has major indexes—including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average—hovering around all-time highs.
This eight-week streak marks the longest stretch of weekly gains for the broader market since 2023. The rally has been heavily driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings reports, and falling bond yields"
.
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Needed cash for life’s trials and tribulations. Sold QQQ around its high today from my taxable account. It’s almost ALL going to be subject to capital gains taxes. I guess that’s good…..
I thought market would go down today after we lobbed a few more bombs Iran’s way. I’m not good at interpreting these events….
Quote: SOOPOONew ATH at +252%.
Needed cash for life’s trials and tribulations. Sold QQQ around its high today from my taxable account. It’s almost ALL going to be subject to capital gains taxes. I guess that’s good…..
I thought market would go down today after we lobbed a few more bombs Iran’s way. I’m not good at interpreting these events….
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I saw it as the opposite. That strike showed that the Iranians have lost their ability to retaliate by threatening shipping, and indeed can no longer defend the assets they would use to threaten shipping. Being oil shipped through there is a much bigger deal to China than it is to the US, anything real happening is going to affect Asian markets before and to a greater degree than US markets.
It's fun reading about how much money you guys are making in the markets though. I only wish DrawingDead chimed in to this thread more often.
Met with the ‘private equity’ guy that I have some small investments with. I may take some of the gobs of money and have him invest in a ‘15% a year for 3 years then you get the principal back’ investment. What could go wrong?
Quote: billryanI thought about buying some gold, but
I bought a gold etf, gldm, a large amount (for me) a few months ago after gold soared in 2025
I lost about 12% in a few months and sold out
at least the loss will help out on my taxes after my ira rmd
buying that gold etf was the worst investment decision I've ever made
it was totally outside of what I normally do - I still can't believe that I did it -
many would say it's still a good investment - but it going down when everything else I owned was going up got me down on it - I didn't want to hold it for the long term
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI thought about buying some gold, but
I bought a gold etf, gldm, a large amount (for me) a couple of months ago after gold soared in 2025
I lost about 12% in a few weeks and sold out
at least the loss will help out on my taxes after my ira rmd
buying that gold etf was the worst investment decision I've ever made
it was totally outside of what I normally do - I still can't believe that I did it -
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Seems like selling was an even worse decision?
I can list a dozen (maybe more?) stocks I bought that went bankrupt. It’s part of the process. I’ve also had ginormous winners. BAP at 6 and now well over 300. Apple at 18 now also over 300. Meta at 68 now over 600. Etc…. If you throw enough darts at the wall enough stick. One 50 bagger makes up for quite a few that went bankrupt.
Just checked. Got my gold ETF (RING) a few years back at 20. Now 75. I distinctly remember when I bought it thinking it was ‘stupid’.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanI thought about buying some gold, but
I bought a gold etf, gldm, a large amount (for me) a couple of months ago after gold soared in 2025
I lost about 12% in a few weeks and sold out
at least the loss will help out on my taxes after my ira rmd
buying that gold etf was the worst investment decision I've ever made
it was totally outside of what I normally do - I still can't believe that I did it -
.
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Seems like selling was an even worse decision?
I can list a dozen (maybe more?) stocks I bought that went bankrupt. It’s part of the process. I’ve also had ginormous winners. BAP at 6 and now well over 300. Apple at 18 now also over 300. Meta at 68 now over 600. Etc…. If you throw enough darts at the wall enough stick. One 50 bagger makes up for quite a few that went bankrupt.
Just checked. Got my gold ETF (RING) a few years back at 20. Now 75. I distinctly remember when I bought it thinking it was ‘stupid’.
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you have comfortability with what you're doing
my comfortability is only with buying and holding index funds and funds that mirror the performance of the S&P 500
I would perhaps do better if I ventured outside my comfort zone
but I also might very well do worse
anyway, I can't change now - I would feel like a fish out of water
my strategy is admittedly quite a boring one and probably shouldn't even be in this thread
.
Quote: SOOPOO
Seems like selling was an even worse decision?
I can list a dozen (maybe more?) stocks I bought that went bankrupt. It’s part of the process.
My largest stock mistake was not selling any of my employee stock options that I had in a company that I worked for. Had I exercised all of my vested options I could have profited high six figures to low seven figures. I guess I was just naive as we had just come out with a new product that was revolutionary and was doing well. Apparently the company was so leveraged that we were told on a Tuesday that the company was closing on Wednesday. The old adage of having all of your eggs in one basket applied to me.
Quote: SOOPOO
I can list a dozen (maybe more?) stocks I bought that went bankrupt. It’s part of the process. I’ve also had ginormous winners. BAP at 6 and now well over 300. Apple at 18 now also over 300. Meta at 68 now over 600. Etc…. If you throw enough darts at the wall enough stick. One 50 bagger makes up for quite a few that went bankrupt.
Just checked. Got my gold ETF (RING) a few years back at 20. Now 75. I distinctly remember when I bought it thinking it was ‘stupid’.
the picture you paint here, is of a person absolutely crushing the broader market
if you had 16 stocks where you lost everything; just one stock you owned; BAP going from 6 to well over 300; would have more than made up for those 15 losses
assuming they were all purchased in roughly equal amounts
not to mention the others crushing
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
I can list a dozen (maybe more?) stocks I bought that went bankrupt. It’s part of the process. I’ve also had ginormous winners. BAP at 6 and now well over 300. Apple at 18 now also over 300. Meta at 68 now over 600. Etc…. If you throw enough darts at the wall enough stick. One 50 bagger makes up for quite a few that went bankrupt.
Just checked. Got my gold ETF (RING) a few years back at 20. Now 75. I distinctly remember when I bought it thinking it was ‘stupid’.
the picture you paint here, is of a person, yourself, absolutely crushing the broader market
if you had 16 stocks where you lost everything; just one stock you owned; BAP going from 6 to 300; would have more than made up for those 15 losses
assuming they were all purchased in roughly equal amounts
not to mention the others crushing
.
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Generally correct. But remember, this is an Internet forum. I post what I think may be of interest to others. I also have lots of stocks just up slightly over the years, some down slightly as well. Who wants to read about those?
I ABSOLUTELY do NOT crush the broader market. It’s not even a certainty I have outperformed YOU!
The only thing I will say about my investing style is that it has outperformed money managers who had even young people like me when I was starting out partially in bonds andcash, and charging them for that poor advice.
as I indicated by strategy is very boring and obvious
even though I've done well it's nothing to brag about
the only thing I'm proud of -
I didn't sell out like so many did during the bad down years
I stayed strong with buy and hold
I knew I couldn't successfully time the market
but of course, it was very tough during those years to watch my portfolio going down and down and down
.
"AI Overview
From 2000 to 2002, the S&P 500 experienced a severe bear market, shedding roughly 40% to 50% of its total value as the dot-com bubble burst and the U.S. economy entered a recession.
Yearly Performance Breakdown:
2000: -9.7% - 2001: -11.8% - 2002 - -21.6%"
.
Quote: billryanIf you are investing regularly for your retirement, you shouldn't care if the market is down for a few years. It just lets you buy more shares at the same price.
that's easy to say and that's what I did
but still it's not easy to watch and your mind (or my mind anyway) goes to worst case scenarios
what if the market kept going down for 15 years straight - ?
it may not be likely but it's not impossible
people say "the market always comes back" - and so far it always has
but in reality - there are no guarantees
and when it keeps going down year after year you (well, I was anyway) are painfully aware of that
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Quote: billryanIf you are investing regularly for your retirement, you shouldn't care if the market is down for a few years. It just lets you buy more shares at the same price.
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That would depend on how close you are to retirement. I am hoping to be able to retire in two years so if we have a few down years in a row that may change my plans.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanIf you are investing regularly for your retirement, you shouldn't care if the market is down for a few years. It just lets you buy more shares at the same price.
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That would depend on how close you are to retirement. I am hoping to be able to retire in two years so if we have a few down years in a row that may change my plans.
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The reality is different, but most people seem to feel the same way you do.
Quote: SOOPOO+254%. Another new ATH. You know, based on optimism that the US and Iran will no longer be fighting. Is there a way for this war to go on forever but there be constant optimism that it is ending?
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Like the Korean War. It still exists, just nobody's fighting it.
Likewise markets are catching on that the actual war is a cold civil war being fought within Iran, between the old dynasty of mullahs from 1979 and a new parliamentary government that is willing to be civilized in its interactions with the rest of the world. Some drones were launched at Kuwait yesterday in an attempt to scuttle the re-signing of the cease fire, they all got quickly shot down and the launch site got hit. So I think the markets are recognizing that what happened there is the upper limit on the "fighting" and everything else is just noise. Still, there will be a lot of people trying to milk the noise for some FUD and to move prices around a few more times in a way that can be timed to news cycles.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanIf you are investing regularly for your retirement, you shouldn't care if the market is down for a few years. It just lets you buy more shares at the same price.
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That would depend on how close you are to retirement. I am hoping to be able to retire in two years so if we have a few down years in a row that may change my plans.
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The reality is different, but most people seem to feel the same way you do.
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In my case it is not. If I don't have $XX in the account I can't retire. Since I only have two years, two down years will require me to work longer.
Quote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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why not? For me it is all about growth until I retire. In other words, I can't afford to retire unless it grows quickly. Once I retire I will probably diversify.
Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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why not? For me it is all about growth until I retire. In other words, I can't afford to retire unless it grows quickly. Once I retire I will probably diversify.
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Two years from retirement probably isn't the time to try something different, so best of luck. Hopefully, the market works in your favor the next two years. I just think what it does over the next twenty years is much more important.
My main source of income just decided to pay weekly instead of monthly, so instead of the deposit that I use to pay my expenses, I got just under a fourth of it. A little warning would have been nice as I now have autopays I need to cover.
Quote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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Correct. That’s why I easily outperformed financial advisors that managed my age/income cohort friends.
But as the commercials always state, ‘past performance doesn’t guarantee future success’.
One of the things that happens is people retire and an unforeseen crash then takes place. This is well known as something to wreck retirement plans. "Sequence of returns risk"Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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why not? For me it is all about growth until I retire. In other words, I can't afford to retire unless it grows quickly. Once I retire I will probably diversify.
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Quote: googlebotThis is widely known in financial circles as sequence of returns risk. When a major market crash hits early in retirement, it forces you to sell off a larger number of shares to cover living expenses, which permanently depletes your pool of capital and ruins your portfolio's ability to recover
I take it you mean you didn't follow the typical advice to not have it all in the stock market. Well, it's possible to have enough alternatives to digging into your principal that you can sail through no matter what. For example is your dividend situation is really good in combination with SS, often companies try to maintain the dividend level in a downturn. Or, you have so much in stocks that dealing with a 20% downturn doesn't ruin you, and that is as much to expect for extended downturns ... ummm, with some famous exceptions. You have to admit that recent downturns have been V shaped things that are scary but easy to surviveQuote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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Correct. That’s why I easily outperformed financial advisors that managed my age/income cohort friends.
But as the commercials always state, ‘past performance doesn’t guarantee future success’.
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I am now 100% invested in the market except for a smallish cash fund for daily living to add to my s.s. payouts -
all of my dividends are automatically reinvested
even though I'm retired
I'm happy with this
I want to earn as much as I can
I recently got rid of all of my bond funds which were not earning much and put all of the sale into my stock market funds
If my market valuation drop by 50% I won't like it, but I will still be okay
if things proceed normally with no crash and I live another 10 years my net worth should at least double
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Quote: odiousgambitOne of the things that happens is people retire and an unforeseen crash then takes place. This is well known as something to wreck retirement plans. "Sequence of returns risk"Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitno financial advisor worth a hoot would tell you to keep all your money in stocks, then retire
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why not? For me it is all about growth until I retire. In other words, I can't afford to retire unless it grows quickly. Once I retire I will probably diversify.
link to original postQuote: googlebotThis is widely known in financial circles as sequence of returns risk. When a major market crash hits early in retirement, it forces you to sell off a larger number of shares to cover living expenses, which permanently depletes your pool of capital and ruins your portfolio's ability to recover
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A well-structured retirement plan would not depend on selling stocks to live. A well-structured, diverse plan would be minimally affected by a minor recession. Having seven to ten ETFs, all of which have NVDIA as their #1 holding is not a diverse portfolio.
In the event of a crash, you are supposed to have a six-month emergency fund that will get you through it without having to sell your stocks. Ideally, your portfolio produces enough income that you don't have to sell your stocks. If the market drops 30% tomorrow, your portfolio should be built to absorb it.
A retired person shouldn't be 100% in stocks. The conventional wisdom is 40% stocks, 60% fixed income. My personal preference is 75 stocks 25f ixed income, but I have no one who is depending on me. If I had kids that needed the money, I'd be more cautious.
Quote: billryan
A retired person shouldn't be 100% in stocks. The conventional wisdom is 40% stocks, 60% fixed income.
that is meaningless for a person with a high net worth who could easily absorb a 50% drawdown
he should do whatever he wants
such a person doesn't need to consult a googlebot to decide what to do
for others - that may be fine if they feel a strong need to minimize their risk (generally because they're fearful)
but there is a price for that
less risk - less potential reward - there's no getting around that
the key thing in determining what a person should do is whatever they're attitude towards risk is
some are more accepting of risk than others - that doesn't mean they are bad investors who are doing something wrong
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"Sequence of returns risk" came from the financial industry long before internet robots came along. Understanding this risk is important for the average guy, not wealthy, thinking of retiring. I could ask the googlebot to give examples of the the troves of people who should have been listening, but that might upset you.Quote: billryanNobody needs to consult a Googlebot. If you are getting your financial and life advice from Google, I wish you success in life.
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Quote: odiousgambitA 10 year timeline is pretty safe
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A ten year life expectancy for me is optimistic.
Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitA 10 year timeline is pretty safe
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A ten-year life expectancy for me is optimistic.
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For you, sure, but don't the wives deserve a deferred compensation plan?
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitA 10 year timeline is pretty safe
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A ten-year life expectancy for me is optimistic.
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For you, sure, but don't the wives deserve a deferred compensation plan?
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I think between my current investments, my social security, and my life insurance policy they will be comfortable for 40 or more years.

