WoV stock portfolio
all of the chatter about a bubble causing the market to crash means nothing to a great many in the game
many are aggressively buying
stock market futures are up again today - unreal
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stock-futures-inch-higher-as-wall-street-looks-to-extend-winning-streak-in-november-b26c2fae?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc3pwJHyBRjTm4OlVJwnKFOmNMKenJ6ZXotiOyhBvWo0dBA3tzizb1q&gaa_ts=6908aa12&gaa_sig=5VFpIZorsO_oCXE7IyLup_ylyuVCOvSIHYR2e8AbHi9GJaZ_pt52k33kplSiXEri__8JwtplrzFrRsODc0MDbg%3D%3D
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I've no way of knowing which way the next thousand point will swing, or even which way the next 10,000 points might swing, but I know, with certainty, which way the next 100% swing will be, and you have to be in it to win it.
Quote: DougGanderQuote: lilredrooster.
kinna interesting - to me anyway - google's AI response to the question of whether or not the investments in AI constitute a bubble that is likely to burst and cause a massive selloff - the arguments for and against:
"Arguments for an AI bubble
Unclear returns: A significant portion of companies are reportedly seeing zero return on their AI investments, despite large spending, notes Wikipedia.
High valuations: Some analysts and investors have likened the situation to the dot-com bubble, with concerns about the lofty valuations of some AI-related stocks.
Massive investment and debt: Companies are reportedly spending billions to stay at the forefront of AI, often taking on debt to do so, say The World Economic Forum and Wikipedia.
Risk of a crash: A sudden realization that the promised productivity gains won't materialize could cause a market crash, wiping out trillions in wealth, say The Guardian and The World Economic Forum.
Arguments against an AI bubble
Real economic growth: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that AI is different from the dot-com bubble because it is a major source of current economic growth, according to CNBC.
Transformative technology: Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution with the potential for widespread productivity gains across many industries.
Significant potential market size: AI has a massive potential market size, and its real benefits are already being seen in areas like supply chain optimization and manufacturing efficiency, say Trustnet and HBS Online.
Varied valuations: Not all AI stocks have high valuations; investors can find a wide range of valuations, including some that are much lower than during the dot-com boom, notes Yahoo Finance. "
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OK, I normally lurk here but I had to comment on this one.
First, google's AI is widely considered to be the worst on the market. It regularly hallucinates. It has been much ridiculed for its recommendations, such as to "only" eat one rock a day.
There are obvious problems with the comments cited such as "Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution"-this is pure drivel. The internet was always seen as a major technological revolution.
Finally, obviously, google is a major beneficiary of AI hype and may well interfere with search queries directed toward establishing the existence of a bubble.
The issue with holding the major indices is not just whether they go up or down. The issue is that at the moment Nvidia and to a lesser extent the other big tech companies ARE the stock market for all practical purposes right now, so you might as well hold them or Nvidia alone for all the good your diversification is doing you.
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Are you suggesting we eat more than one rock per day?
They recommend a stock - RGTI that they claimed had a 25X upside.
Just for laughs, I check the stock, and it is down 12% this morning. It appears that not many buyers took advantage of the Special Alert.
RGTI aims to be a leader in the field of quantum computing, another area I know nothing about. It's bleeding resources, the price is in a steep decline, and it has many better-financed competitors. At best, it is a strongly speculative stock and not something I'd expect someone to tout as the next big thing.
Quote: billryanIf someone constantly calls for a market crash, they will eventually be right.
Bearish sentiment is a little more sophisticated than that. The tails of the distribution are fatter than they should be: this isn't something that evens out. And when there is a crash the payout can be huge: 20-100x. You don't even need to be right that often because of the asymmetry.
The difficulty is standing around losing small amounts of money while everyone else is making bank.
Quote: BigSlickremember that if you sell and have to pay Capital Gains taxes you made money. There are worse things
For now, "Stop Loss" is my favorite trade.
each to his own but -
no stop loss strategy for me
I will never EVER pay the Feds because I had a profit from investing (other than dividends - that's unfortunately unavoidable)
unless I need $ for personal reasons - and I need almost nothing beyond my pension and $ I have set aside for personal needs -
all of my investments are diversified funds intended for the long term with very few exceptions
as DougGander pointed out some of these funds may not be well diversified because of the high concentration in big tech
that's okay - I'll accept that risk
write a big check to the Feds because of stock market profits - ?
homey don't play that tune
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: BigSlickremember that if you sell and have to pay Capital Gains taxes you made money. There are worse things
For now, "Stop Loss" is my favorite trade.
each to his own but -
no stop loss strategy for me
I will never EVER pay the Feds because I had a profit from investing (other than dividends - that's unfortunately unavoidable)
unless I need $ for personal reasons - and I need almost nothing beyond my pension and $ I have set aside for personal needs -
all of my investments are diversified funds intended for the long term with very few exceptions
as DougGander pointed out some of these funds may not be well diversified because of the high concentration in big tech
that's okay - I'll accept that risk
write a big check to the Feds because of stock market profits - ?
homey don't play that tune
.
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You would rather never access any of the money you've saved over decades than give a bit of it to your Uncle Sam? Do I have that right?
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredroosterQuote: BigSlickremember that if you sell and have to pay Capital Gains taxes you made money. There are worse things
For now, "Stop Loss" is my favorite trade.
each to his own but -
no stop loss strategy for me
I will never EVER pay the Feds because I had a profit from investing (other than dividends - that's unfortunately unavoidable)
unless I need $ for personal reasons - and I need almost nothing beyond my pension and $ I have set aside for personal needs -
all of my investments are diversified funds intended for the long term with very few exceptions
as DougGander pointed out some of these funds may not be well diversified because of the high concentration in big tech
that's okay - I'll accept that risk
write a big check to the Feds because of stock market profits - ?
homey don't play that tune
.
link to original post
You would rather never access any of the money you've saved over decades than give a bit of it to your Uncle Sam? Do I have that right?
link to original post
yes
this way profit is made from older profit
the $ are insurance in case of a catastrophe
and for my heirs
if I had a taste for luxury goods the strategy wouldn't hold
but I have no such taste
my state and 41 out of 50 states also tax capital gains
a double whammy
if you have a stop loss the underlying strategy is this -
you believe it will go even lower
which of course you can't know for sure
and/or it won't go down and then bounce back up even higher than what you sold it at very quickly
which of course you can't know for sure
it is a kind of timing the market
I'm sure there are a very few who are either very good or very lucky at timing the market
I'm not one of those few
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Quote: billryanIf AI and Quantum Computing are the next gold rush, should we be looking for the next Levi Strauss?
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The anthropologist? Or the pants?
There is a difference. Coming home without an anthropologist is routine. Coming home without your pants is special!
billion dollar short bet against AI stocks not looking good right now:
"AI Overview
The "billion dollar short bet" against Palantir was made by Michael Burry, the investor made famous by the book and film The Big Short for predicting the 2008 housing crisis.
Through his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, Burry disclosed in a recent regulatory filing (as of November 2025) that he held put options on approximately 5 million shares of Palantir stock, valued at around $912 million as of the end of the third quarter.
Key details of the bet:
Targeted AI Stocks: The bet was part of a larger, approximately $1.1 billion wager against two major AI companies, Palantir and Nvidia, signaling Burry's belief that there is an "AI bubble" that will soon burst.
Put Options: By purchasing put options, Burry is positioned to profit if the stock price of Palantir declines below a certain strike price before the options expire.
CEO Reaction: Palantir CEO Alex Karp publicly called Burry "bats--t crazy" for shorting his company's stock, noting that both Palantir and Nvidia have been highly successful and profitable in the AI space.
Current Status: As of recent reports, Burry's trade is likely underwater, as Palantir's stock price has generally remained higher than during the third quarter when the options were initiated.
This high-profile bet has sparked significant market discussion about the potentially overheated valuations of AI-related stocks. "
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Bonuses are significant to the NYC economy, as they tend to be spent and not saved.
This year, the average trader bonus is estimated to be $250,000 plus.
Quote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
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A month later after I sold everything I'm still back at about the same point with this current downtrend
Quote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
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A month later after I sold everything I'm still back at about the same point with this current downtrend
Edit:
Can't believe 4 weeks have passed already.
Time flies
Quote: lilredrooster.
billion dollar short bet against AI stocks not looking good right now:
"AI Overview
The "billion dollar short bet" against Palantir was made by Michael Burry, the investor made famous by the book and film The Big Short for predicting the 2008 housing crisis.
I would not bet against Palantir just because they are run by a lot of former military, CIA, and politicians. Those people tend to attract the big government contracts.
there was a lot of concern about tech stocks being overvalued in January
the tech heavy Nasdaq is up a little over 19% ytd
a great many investors (including me) see buying stocks or funds as their only way to make a decent profit
most do not sell short
of course many will sell to take profits and/or get out to avoid a potential great loss if they think a big downturn is soon coming
I would speculate that "if" there is a beat down it won't be long term such as the dot.com beat down
that's my two cents worth -
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Quote: lilredrooster.
there was a lot of concern about tech stocks being overvalued in January
the tech heavy Nasdaq is up a little over 19% ytd
a great many investors (including me) see buying stocks or funds as their only way to make a decent profit
most do not sell short
of course many will sell to take profits and/or get out to avoid a potential great loss if they think a big downturn is soon coming
I would speculate that "if" there is a beat down it won't be long term such as the dot.com beat down
that's my two cents worth -
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Agree. I made a couple of decent “sell and buy the dip” trades this week in semis because investors appear wary of an AI bubble and are just waiting for it to burst. I don’t see that as likely but the volatility is frustrating.
My plan is to be completely out again before Black Friday. Netflix is going to split and I will probably go long. Everything else will sit in cash until next year. Some cap gains are going to suck but that’s because my cash account did well.
