WoV stock portfolio
Quote: billryanQuote: 100xOddsQuote: billryanI was reading a free online article by Alex King. It continued over at his pay site, saying I could sign up to finish reading the article for $4.99 and get access to his full line of articles at a discounted rate. Only after reading through several paragraphs did I see that failure to cancel within 28 days obligated me to a two-year $999 commitment. If I hadn't known there had to be another hidden charge to this and actively searched it out, one could easily find their credit card charged $4.99 and then $999 and little hope for a refund.
link to original post
who?
google says he's a basketball player?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_King_(basketball)
link to original post
Different fellow. The Alex King I was reading is a somewhat controversial trader from Long Island. He's not particularly well known and isn't a major market maker. Yet.
link to original post
Seems more like a scam artist with his $999 gotcha website
Quote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post
So my gamble failed
Oh well
Earning about 4% in tbills
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: billryanQuote: 100xOddsQuote: billryanI was reading a free online article by Alex King. It continued over at his pay site, saying I could sign up to finish reading the article for $4.99 and get access to his full line of articles at a discounted rate. Only after reading through several paragraphs did I see that failure to cancel within 28 days obligated me to a two-year $999 commitment. If I hadn't known there had to be another hidden charge to this and actively searched it out, one could easily find their credit card charged $4.99 and then $999 and little hope for a refund.
link to original post
who?
google says he's a basketball player?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_King_(basketball)
link to original post
Different fellow. The Alex King I was reading is a somewhat controversial trader from Long Island. He's not particularly well known and isn't a major market maker. Yet.
link to original post
Seems more like a scam artist with his $999 gotcha website
link to original post
. That might be, but he has some interesting takes on things. As you have observed, I'm not big on conventional thinking and try to steer my own course. He might be a flash in the pan but he's written some things I agreed with.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post
So my gamble failed
Oh well
Earning about 4% in tbills
link to original post
Ted Williams failed two out of every three times he batted but managed to produce a fairly decent career. I suspect you'll be okay.
there's nothing in this world like the stock market
so easy to make serious $ while actually doing so little - if your strategy is fairly conservative - meaning you're not a highly active trader
buy and hold quality is my strategy - I've almost never sold
I've been investing for decades
in all of those decades combined I believe I've spent no more than one dozen hours total deciding what to purchase -
it's hard for me to believe how easy it's been -
of course those who are successful and very active traders have way, way outperformed me in percentage terms
that's okay by me - it's not something I ever wanted to do or would have felt comfortable doing
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
there's nothing in this world like the stock market
so easy to make serious $ while actually doing so little - if your strategy is fairly conservative - meaning you're not a highly active trader
buy and hold quality is my strategy - I've almost never sold
I've been investing for decades
in all of those decades combined I believe I've spent no more than one dozen hours total deciding what to purchase -
it's hard for me to believe how easy it's been -
.
link to original post
It's a shame you missed out on all the fun. Playing the stock market has been a lot of fun over the years.
As they say, there are many roads to the destination. Some like to take the interstate, while others choose Route 66.
I've had a great time and learned quite a bit—some from successes, some from failures. It's been a great hobby.
Do you have a hobby?
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOClosed up 228%. TWCUX is a powerhouse. And has been for decades.
link to original post
hunh -?
I don't get it
the link shows it up 2.93% in the last 5 days, 4.41% in the last month, 15.57% ytd and 62.13% in the last 5 years
another link that I couldn't post showed that it went up 1.78% yesterday
per the link it has trailed the S&P 500 index by a lot over the last 5 years - the index has gone up 110.21% in that time frame
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+did+twcux+do+yesterday&rlz=1C1VIQF_enUS1161US1161&oq=what+did+twcux+do+yesterday&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRiPAtIBCDY1NzlqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+did+vfiax+do+yesterday&rlz=1C1VIQF_enUS1161US1161&oq=what+did+vfiax+do+yesterday&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRiPAtIBCDUyMjhqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
.
.
link to original post
Up 228% is the entire portfolio from inception. TWCUX I began in 2001. It’s up 21 fold since then. If you put a mere $100k in it in 2001 it’s now $2.1 million. Not bad.
Quote: billryan
It's a shame you missed out on all the fun. Playing the stock market has been a lot of fun over the years.
As they say, there are many roads to the destination. Some like to take the interstate, while others choose Route 66.
I've had a great time and learned quite a bit—some from successes, some from failures. It's been a great hobby.
Do you have a hobby?
for me, I felt like trading would be gambling and I didn't and don't want to do that with large sums
I did have a hobby for many years - actual gambling on horses and sports with much smaller amounts
I enjoyed it quite a bit - and had a few other hobbies that I enjoyed also -
I'm glad it has worked out well for you -
.
Quote: SOOPOOUp 228% is the entire portfolio from inception. TWCUX I began in 2001. It’s up 21 fold since then. If you put a mere $100k in it in 2001 it’s now $2.1 million. Not bad.
very nice pick Doc - I'm impressed
but that doesn't equal 228%
if a stock increases by 100% in value that means the price doubled
your increase was 2,000%
woohoo
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOUp 228% is the entire portfolio from inception. TWCUX I began in 2001. It’s up 21 fold since then. If you put a mere $100k in it in 2001 it’s now $2.1 million. Not bad.
very nice pick Doc - I'm impressed
but that doesn't equal 228%
if a stock increases by 100% in value that means the price doubled
your increase was 2,000%
woohoo
.
link to original post
I believe what he is saying is that his main portfolio is up 228% while TWCUX is up 2000%
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOUp 228% is the entire portfolio from inception. TWCUX I began in 2001. It’s up 21 fold since then. If you put a mere $100k in it in 2001 it’s now $2.1 million. Not bad.
very nice pick Doc - I'm impressed
but that doesn't equal 228%
if a stock increases by 100% in value that means the price doubled
your increase was 2,000%
woohoo
.
link to original post
I believe what he is saying is that his main portfolio is up 228% while TWCUX is up 2000%
link to original post
yes, I got that now - thanks
the rest of his portfolio must have been very, very conservative it it's only up 228% in 24 years
if that is what he is saying -
but I'm sure with his very high income he didn't need to speculate
being a Doctor with a super high income is a world of difference from what most folks have to deal with
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichQuote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOUp 228% is the entire portfolio from inception. TWCUX I began in 2001. It’s up 21 fold since then. If you put a mere $100k in it in 2001 it’s now $2.1 million. Not bad.
very nice pick Doc - I'm impressed
but that doesn't equal 228%
if a stock increases by 100% in value that means the price doubled
your increase was 2,000%
woohoo
.
link to original post
I believe what he is saying is that his main portfolio is up 228% while TWCUX is up 2000%
link to original post
yes, I got that now - thanks
the rest of his portfolio must have been very, very conservative it it's only up 228% in 24 years
if that is what he is saying -
but I'm sure with his very high income he didn't need to speculate
being a Doctor with a super high income is a world of difference from what most folks have to deal with
.
link to original post
Nope. What I am saying is the WoV portfolio is up 228% since its beginning, around 11 years ago
The results for TWCUX are from 2001, so 24 years. That’s the ‘up 2000%’.
My philosophy was this….. I will be no better or no worse than any stock picker. And that since my investment was for very long term stocks would be superior to bonds or money market funds. So I’ve been ‘throwing a dart against the wall’ picking stocks, and also just a bunch of various ETFs. NOT paying some guy 1% of my net worth to do it for me.
‘Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results’, but I’ve FAR exceeded my cohorts whose money managers put them in “30% large cap, 20% foreign, 10% small cap, 30% bonds, 10% cash” or whatever gobbledygook mishmash they came up with.
It’s interesting. I don’t think my ‘system’ would have been deemed conservative. Since it was nearly 100% in stocks even though most were big, well established companies, it still would be considered aggressive.
Now as an old fart I think I’m up to around 20% not in stocks.
Quote: SOOPOOWhat I am saying is the WoV portfolio is up 228% since its beginning, around 11 years ago
I own a tech stock index etf - VGT - one of my 2 main investments
quote from google:
"AI Overview
As of September 30, 2025, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has gained 721.81% over the last 10 years, based on market price returns. This cumulative return includes reinvested dividends.
Here is a breakdown of VGT's 10-year performance using different metrics reported by Vanguard and financial analysis websites:
Cumulative return (Market Price): 721.81% as of September 30, 2025.
Average annual return (Market Price): 23.45% as of September 30, 2025.
Cumulative return (NAV): 721.10% as of September 30, 2025.
Average annual return (NAV): 23.44% as of September 30, 2025.
my other main investment - below - I wish I didn't have it and just had VGT - oh, well - such is life - a s&p 500 index tracking mutual fund
from google:
"AI Overview
Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 .
The S&P 500 index has a total return of approximately 261% over the last 10 years, including dividends, which equates to an annualized return of about 13.6%."
Average annual return
With dividends: Approximately 13.6%.
How this is calculated
The total return is calculated by comparing the index's value 10 years ago to its value today, factoring in reinvested dividends for the higher percentage.
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOWhat I am saying is the WoV portfolio is up 228% since its beginning, around 11 years ago
I own a tech stock index etf - VGT - one of my 2 main investments
quote from google:
"AI Overview
As of September 30, 2025, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has gained 721.81% over the last 10 years, based on market price returns. This cumulative return includes reinvested dividends.
Here is a breakdown of VGT's 10-year performance using different metrics reported by Vanguard and financial analysis websites:
Cumulative return (Market Price): 721.81% as of September 30, 2025.
Average annual return (Market Price): 23.45% as of September 30, 2025.
Cumulative return (NAV): 721.10% as of September 30, 2025.
Average annual return (NAV): 23.44% as of September 30, 2025.
my other main investment - below - I wish I didn't have it and just had VGT - oh, well - such is life - a s&p 500 index tracking mutual fund
from google:
"AI Overview
Historical Average Stock Market Returns for S&P 500 .
The S&P 500 index has a total return of approximately 261% over the last 10 years, including dividends, which equates to an annualized return of about 13.6%."
Average annual return
With dividends: Approximately 13.6%.
How this is calculated
The total return is calculated by comparing the index's value 10 years ago to its value today, factoring in reinvested dividends for the higher percentage.
.
link to original post
Sounds about right. Had I known tech stocks would have outperformed the entire market by a zillion fold I would have put all my money in VGT. That’s basically what TWCUX has done. I’m absolutely NOT saying I’ve done better than all. I’m just saying I’ve done better than most that paid a ‘money manager’.
None of this helped me avoid the 3 sand traps I was in today on my 9 hole foray.
kinna interesting - to me anyway - google's AI response to the question of whether or not the investments in AI constitute a bubble that is likely to burst and cause a massive selloff - the arguments for and against:
"Arguments for an AI bubble
Unclear returns: A significant portion of companies are reportedly seeing zero return on their AI investments, despite large spending, notes Wikipedia.
High valuations: Some analysts and investors have likened the situation to the dot-com bubble, with concerns about the lofty valuations of some AI-related stocks.
Massive investment and debt: Companies are reportedly spending billions to stay at the forefront of AI, often taking on debt to do so, say The World Economic Forum and Wikipedia.
Risk of a crash: A sudden realization that the promised productivity gains won't materialize could cause a market crash, wiping out trillions in wealth, say The Guardian and The World Economic Forum.
Arguments against an AI bubble
Real economic growth: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that AI is different from the dot-com bubble because it is a major source of current economic growth, according to CNBC.
Transformative technology: Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution with the potential for widespread productivity gains across many industries.
Significant potential market size: AI has a massive potential market size, and its real benefits are already being seen in areas like supply chain optimization and manufacturing efficiency, say Trustnet and HBS Online.
Varied valuations: Not all AI stocks have high valuations; investors can find a wide range of valuations, including some that are much lower than during the dot-com boom, notes Yahoo Finance. "
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
kinna interesting - to me anyway - google's AI response to the question of whether or not the investments in AI constitute a bubble that is likely to burst and cause a massive selloff - the arguments for and against:
"Arguments for an AI bubble
Unclear returns: A significant portion of companies are reportedly seeing zero return on their AI investments, despite large spending, notes Wikipedia.
High valuations: Some analysts and investors have likened the situation to the dot-com bubble, with concerns about the lofty valuations of some AI-related stocks.
Massive investment and debt: Companies are reportedly spending billions to stay at the forefront of AI, often taking on debt to do so, say The World Economic Forum and Wikipedia.
Risk of a crash: A sudden realization that the promised productivity gains won't materialize could cause a market crash, wiping out trillions in wealth, say The Guardian and The World Economic Forum.
Arguments against an AI bubble
Real economic growth: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that AI is different from the dot-com bubble because it is a major source of current economic growth, according to CNBC.
Transformative technology: Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution with the potential for widespread productivity gains across many industries.
Significant potential market size: AI has a massive potential market size, and its real benefits are already being seen in areas like supply chain optimization and manufacturing efficiency, say Trustnet and HBS Online.
Varied valuations: Not all AI stocks have high valuations; investors can find a wide range of valuations, including some that are much lower than during the dot-com boom, notes Yahoo Finance. "
.
OK, I normally lurk here but I had to comment on this one.
First, google's AI is widely considered to be the worst on the market. It regularly hallucinates. It has been much ridiculed for its recommendations, such as to "only" eat one rock a day.
There are obvious problems with the comments cited such as "Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution"-this is pure drivel. The internet was always seen as a major technological revolution.
Finally, obviously, google is a major beneficiary of AI hype and may well interfere with search queries directed toward establishing the existence of a bubble.
The issue with holding the major indices is not just whether they go up or down. The issue is that at the moment Nvidia and to a lesser extent the other big tech companies ARE the stock market for all practical purposes right now, so you might as well hold them or Nvidia alone for all the good your diversification is doing you.
Quote: DougGanderQuote: lilredrooster.
kinna interesting - to me anyway - google's AI response to the question of whether or not the investments in AI constitute a bubble that is likely to burst and cause a massive selloff - the arguments for and against:
"Arguments for an AI bubble
Unclear returns: A significant portion of companies are reportedly seeing zero return on their AI investments, despite large spending, notes Wikipedia.
High valuations: Some analysts and investors have likened the situation to the dot-com bubble, with concerns about the lofty valuations of some AI-related stocks.
Massive investment and debt: Companies are reportedly spending billions to stay at the forefront of AI, often taking on debt to do so, say The World Economic Forum and Wikipedia.
Risk of a crash: A sudden realization that the promised productivity gains won't materialize could cause a market crash, wiping out trillions in wealth, say The Guardian and The World Economic Forum.
Arguments against an AI bubble
Real economic growth: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that AI is different from the dot-com bubble because it is a major source of current economic growth, according to CNBC.
Transformative technology: Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution with the potential for widespread productivity gains across many industries.
Significant potential market size: AI has a massive potential market size, and its real benefits are already being seen in areas like supply chain optimization and manufacturing efficiency, say Trustnet and HBS Online.
Varied valuations: Not all AI stocks have high valuations; investors can find a wide range of valuations, including some that are much lower than during the dot-com boom, notes Yahoo Finance. "
.
OK, I normally lurk here but I had to comment on this one.
First, google's AI is widely considered to be the worst on the market. It regularly hallucinates. It has been much ridiculed for its recommendations, such as to "only" eat one rock a day.
There are obvious problems with the comments cited such as "Unlike the dot-com era, AI is seen as a genuine technological revolution"-this is pure drivel. The internet was always seen as a major technological revolution.
Finally, obviously, google is a major beneficiary of AI hype and may well interfere with search queries directed toward establishing the existence of a bubble.
The issue with holding the major indices is not just whether they go up or down. The issue is that at the moment Nvidia and to a lesser extent the other big tech companies ARE the stock market for all practical purposes right now, so you might as well hold them or Nvidia alone for all the good your diversification is doing you.
link to original post
Generally agree. But you can avoid Nvidia and its ilk by buying a small cap index fund, or a consumer staples fund, or a lithium battery fund, or….
Quit lurking. Post more. We need fresh blood.
I hadn't heard that
on the web you can find people who will say just about anything sucks
I really don't know if google AI sucks or not
but in fairness to google I would point out this:
google named exactly the same number of reasons - 4 - why AI may be a bubble - as reasons why it may not be a bubble
that doesn't seem like bias to me
does anybody really know if it's a bubble and that it's sure to burst at some time in the near future-? - I doubt it
I sure don't
quite a few who are pouring money into tech stocks are undoubtedly very bright people
but very bright people can be fooled too
there are tons of stories out there indicating that the AI tech stock thing is a bubble that will surely burst and probably pretty soon
if I was forced to make a call - I would say that is probably true
that doesn't mean I will sell - that would be timing the market - something I know I can't do -
.
Quote: SOOPOO
Generally agree. But you can avoid Nvidia and its ilk by buying a small cap index fund, or a consumer staples fund, or a lithium battery fund, or….
Quit lurking. Post more. We need fresh blood.
Yes. I'm not down on holding funds, or indeed any utility any investor might have.
What I'm querying here is whether holding one of the major indices right now is actually giving you the desired utility of the traditional index investor.
kinna amusing - to me anyway
all the talk about a bubble bursting, including mine
tech futures are well up today
all they know is buy, buy, buy
they don't seem to care about the risk
also, Nvidia just became the first company ever to top $5 trillion in market value - wow - see 2nd link
from the link:
"Apple earnings beat fiscal Q4 views with the Dow giant expected to report a strong holiday quarter on iPhone 17 demand. Apple stock rose modestly in extended trade, signaling a move out of a buy zone.
Amazon earnings easily beat with Amazon Web Services revenue up a stronger-than-expected 20% following strong cloud-computing growth at Microsoft (MSFT) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL).
Amazon also raised 2025 capital spending targets and said capex will likely increase in 2026, following ambitious plans from Meta, Microsoft and Google.
Amazon stock spiked more than 10% in extended trade signaling a breakout. Shares fell 3.2% in Thursday's session, back below the 50-day line. AMZN stock has a 238.85 cup-base buy point but Wednesday's high of 232.82 could be an early entry.
Western Digital earnings were strong. WDC stock jumped late. Shares gapped up to a record high back on Wednesday following strong earnings from hard-drive peer Seagate Technology (STX).
Cloudflare earnings beat, with NET stock jumping after hours, signaling a breakout. Cloudflare teased a 230.10 flat-base buy point in Thursday's session.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW) rose modestly on earnings after closing above a buy point. Twilio (TWLO) and Atlassian (TEAM) ran higher late with TWLO stock possibly offering an early entry."
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-amazon-apple-earnings/
"Nvidia’s milestone, making it the first publicly traded company to top $5 trillion in market value, is indicative not only of the astonishing levels of wealth consolidating among a handful of Silicon Valley companies but also the strategic importance of this company, which added $1 trillion in market value in just the past four months."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/technology/nvidia-value-market-ai.html
.
Some are so good at profiting off the stunt that they do well enough to spend a gazillion dollars advertising their book etc on CNBC etc
My advice is to prepare yourself for the downturn by having the funds [sell bonds if you need to] and buying a little when the dip is about 10% down below the spot just before the last all time high [a pickem]. Increase your buying as it keeps going down. Of course you may run out of funds or the opposite, not buying enough before the recovery begins. It's tricky and difficult to pull off perfectly.
There's also the risk that the market will go down and stay down, recovery distant. At my age recovery could be past my expiration date, while the risk is almost non-existent for someone young enough. But we're all gamblers, right?
Quote: odiousgambitThere are more than just a handful of these type storiesQuote: lilredrooster.
some examples of what can happen during a market correction:
.
link to original post
I hope all of our investors here get to experience the 40 year miracle. That's when you really find you just couldn't have gone wrong owning stocks in spite of all that worrying you did during hard times. I look back and mutter about how I was way too conservative, owning way too many balanced funds and bonds.
* to pick that instead of 2008, following the Rooster's lead
link to original post
What are your thoughts on $TSLA? Can you make it make sense? I applaud folks who are making money on that stock, but I just don’t get it and can’t buy into it.
Seems like a lot of posturing and smoke & mirrors from that company. A lot of ridiculous promises are constantly made and then broken and folks just seem to crave more?
I see where Sam Altman is starting to poke at their “fearless leader” with the cancellation of his 8 year-old order for the promised “Roadster”. Is that a sign that the gloves are about to come off?
Quote: BigSlickQuote: odiousgambitThere are more than just a handful of these type storiesQuote: lilredrooster.
some examples of what can happen during a market correction:
.
link to original post
I hope all of our investors here get to experience the 40 year miracle. That's when you really find you just couldn't have gone wrong owning stocks in spite of all that worrying you did during hard times. I look back and mutter about how I was way too conservative, owning way too many balanced funds and bonds.
* to pick that instead of 2008, following the Rooster's lead
link to original post
What are your thoughts on $TSLA? Can you make it make sense? I applaud folks who are making money on that stock, but I just don’t get it and can’t buy into it.
Seems like a lot of posturing and smoke & mirrors from that company. A lot of ridiculous promises are constantly made and then broken and folks just seem to crave more?
I see where Sam Altman is starting to poke at their “fearless leader” with the cancellation of his 8 year-old order for the promised “Roadster”. Is that a sign that the gloves are about to come off?
link to original post
My thoughts are simple. I have no idea why it’s so high!
So let’s say I have $100k in TSLA. Every time it goes up 10% I take $10k out. It’s in a tax deferred account so no tax issues. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve taken $10k out. And I’ve also lost count of how many times I’ve said ‘why the hell did I ever sell any of my TSLA!’ Going up today. May have to sell $10k worth….
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: BigSlickQuote: odiousgambitThere are more than just a handful of these type storiesQuote: lilredrooster.
some examples of what can happen during a market correction:
.
link to original post
I hope all of our investors here get to experience the 40 year miracle. That's when you really find you just couldn't have gone wrong owning stocks in spite of all that worrying you did during hard times. I look back and mutter about how I was way too conservative, owning way too many balanced funds and bonds.
* to pick that instead of 2008, following the Rooster's lead
link to original post
What are your thoughts on $TSLA? Can you make it make sense? I applaud folks who are making money on that stock, but I just don’t get it and can’t buy into it.
Seems like a lot of posturing and smoke & mirrors from that company. A lot of ridiculous promises are constantly made and then broken and folks just seem to crave more?
I see where Sam Altman is starting to poke at their “fearless leader” with the cancellation of his 8 year-old order for the promised “Roadster”. Is that a sign that the gloves are about to come off?
link to original post
My thoughts are simple. I have no idea why it’s so high!
So let’s say I have $100k in TSLA. Every time it goes up 10% I take $10k out. It’s in a tax deferred account so no tax issues. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve taken $10k out. And I’ve also lost count of how many times I’ve said ‘why the hell did I ever sell any of my TSLA!’ Going up today. May have to sell $10k worth….
link to original post
Love it! But, I’ll stick with my $AMD, $MU, and $NVDA
Quote: lilredrooster.
kinna amusing - to me anyway
all the talk about a bubble bursting, including mine
tech futures are well up today
all they know is buy, buy, buy
they don't seem to care about the risk
also, Nvidia just became the first company ever to top $5 trillion in market value - wow - see 2nd link
I am proud to be a contrarian. Most of my stocks are down today.
Quote: billryanBuying Tesla isn't about buying a car company; it's about buying into Elon Musk. If he has another decade like his last one, it's a cheap price to ride his coattails. I'd rather invest 1% of my wealth in Musk than in crypto.. If I could, I would lock my Tesla stock away for twenty years. It's a bet on the future, and as such, it should be taboo.
link to original post
That's what I'd be most afraid of. What's he "actually" done? The Cybertruck? That was a real win.
Not to mention there is another election cycle about to kick off in earnest. Do you really think he'll be able to "keep quiet"? 🙄
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
As AI continues to evolve, IMHO I think we're going to see the likes of Sam Altman & Jensen Huang (and others) magnify his limitations (and continue to get under his skin). Remember, he wasn't able to assume control of OpenAI so he's stuck with "Grok".
In my book, $TSLA is a meme stock much like the DOGE coin that he tried to pump (currently sitting around $0.18). That's just me though. I'm not a expert or a financial planner/advisor and I don't take any issue with folks who are making a lot of money on the stock. I just don't see any fundamentals that offset the risks of "riding one man's coattails".
When I reallocated my portfolio in the fall of 2023, I put 1% of it into Tesla. It's a bet on his upside. If he self-destructs, I lose little. If he lives up to his potential, it's a homerun. I paid in the low $ 220s, and it has nearly doubled. Usually, I'd sell half to make myself whole and then let the free stock run, but at the moment, I'm all in on him.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post
So my gamble failed
Oh well
Earning about 4% in tbills
link to original post
I did the same thing in January. It looked like a bad move until the tariff drama that I'd anticipated kicked-in. Then, it turned out to be the best possible decision.
Since then, I only keep about 10% of my portfolio in equities and not in a diversified way. The other 90% is basically in cash instruments (CD ladders, premium money market, etc)
My thoughts are this:
1. I'm retired and my nest egg will easily take care of me for the rest of my life. Even if it only earns +/- 4%
2. I lost the race to be one of the top wealthiest people in the world a loooooong time ago. Actually, I never really cared about being in that race.
3. I focus on holding 1000 shares of an equity until my gains are about $50K or the equity increases 10-15%. I try to "buy the dip" on something that shows a historical ability to recover. Then I typically cash out and look for other options. I've been in and out of $MU and $AMD several times this year with amazing cash outs. Currently, though, I'm "stuck" in both because they are "on fire"; $MU up over 100%; $AMD over 65%. I will reduce both next month when $NFLX spits 10:1 because I want some of that and I think the upside will be bigger as the semis enter a cooling off period.
4. If I sell something and it spikes afterwards, it doesn't matter to me. I'll SMH and shake it off. To me, it's kind of like "folding the nuts". I'm not going to get all twisted out of shape and go "On Tilt" if I achieved my goals. I think the FOMO is what hurts a lot of people - in stocks and at the poker table. An example of this would be $PEP. I was in at $128 and got out at $145. $17K gain in a short period with a decent dividend stock, but I took the money and ran and it's still over-performing. Still, those dollars are doing better in $AMD and I was able to maintain my cash position.
5. I'm not interested in diversifying what I'm investing in because I'm not concerned about "offsetting losses". I'm focused purely on gains. I feel bad for the kids who have to be diversified and can have a kick ass day on the Nasdaq but have the gains erased by the S&P. Don't get me wrong. THEY need to do that. They NEED to protect their wealth and grow it more slowly.
6. I split my investments transactions across tax-deferred, taxable, and Roth accounts. My riskiest "crazy" investment is a Tesla short ETF held in a Roth account. I figure if it pays off in the long run, it will be huge AND completely tax-free. I'll hold that until it's zero or $TSLA is $100. It's my "lottery ticket" investment. If Musk's coat-tails somehow deliver in the next decade, I'll lose a fixed amount and shrug it off.
another reason why buy and hold is imho a very effective strategy (only for funds invested in high quality) is -
no capital gains taxes are due unless there is a sale for some personal need
most of my personal account will end up with my heirs
which means that I will have had no tax obligation at all on most of my account (other than dividends and qualified dividends are taxed at a lower rate)
referring to investments other than IRAs
the feds do not tax inherited funds
as of 2025 only 6 states impose their own inheritance taxes and there are many exemptions based on the beneficiary's relationship to the deceased
those who actively buy and sell if they are profitable are going to have significant capital gains tax obligations
when an active trader sells it is often because he believes the investment will no longer be profitable
he may be right or he may be wrong
AI Overview:
"Potential for Tax Avoidance through Inheritance: If you hold appreciated assets until death, your heirs receive a "step-up in cost basis" to the asset's fair market value at the time of your death. This effectively erases the capital gains that accrued during your lifetime, meaning neither you nor your heirs pay capital gains tax on that appreciation."
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
another reason why buy and hold is imho a very effective strategy (only for funds invested in high quality) is -
no capital gains taxes are due unless there is a sale for some personal need
most of my personal account will end up with my heirs
which means that I will have had no tax obligation at all on most of my account (other than dividends and qualified dividends are taxed at a lower rate)
referring to investments other than IRAs
the feds do not tax inherited funds
as of 2025 only 6 states impose their own inheritance taxes and there are many exemptions based on the beneficiary's relationship to the deceased
those who actively buy and sell if they are profitable are going to have significant capital gains tax obligations
when an active trader sells it is often because he believes the investment will no longer be profitable
he may be right or he may be wrong
AI Overview:
"Potential for Tax Avoidance through Inheritance: If you hold appreciated assets until death, your heirs receive a "step-up in cost basis" to the asset's fair market value at the time of your death. This effectively erases the capital gains that accrued during your lifetime, meaning neither you nor your heirs pay capital gains tax on that appreciation."
.
link to original post
You should google “buy borrow and die” if you haven’t. I think you will find it to be an interesting read.
Quote: billryanMy Godson married a girl whose family is big on borrowing from their life insurance. He's been doing it for about eight years, and it appears to be working well, although he was very reluctant to discuss it in detail when I asked.
link to original post
Sounds like he has either whole life or universal life. Tell him to sell it and buy term life.
Eat the redemption fees now and save a fortune for the decades to come
Quote: BigSlickQuote: 100xOddsQuote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post
So my gamble failed
Oh well
Earning about 4% in tbills
link to original post
I did the same thing in January. It looked like a bad move until the tariff drama that I'd anticipated kicked-in. Then, it turned out to be the best possible decision.
Since then, I only keep about 10% of my portfolio in equities and not in a diversified way. The other 90% is basically in cash instruments (CD ladders, premium money market, etc)
My thoughts are this:
1. I'm retired and my nest egg will easily take care of me for the rest of my life. Even if it only earns +/- 4%
link to original post
I wouldn't have sold off it was 1% interest in the t-bills.
But 4% or so is good enough for me in case I gambled wrong and the stock market climbs.
I'll accept 4% as a consolation prize
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: BigSlickQuote: 100xOddsQuote: 100xOddsWell, just sold everything in my taxable acct and went all cash.
Gambling on a market crash soon.
Which means:
Wave at me in your rear view mirror when the s&p500 jumps another 1000 pts by end of year as I'm crying in the corner curled up in a ball position?
link to original post
So my gamble failed
Oh well
Earning about 4% in tbills
link to original post
I did the same thing in January. It looked like a bad move until the tariff drama that I'd anticipated kicked-in. Then, it turned out to be the best possible decision.
Since then, I only keep about 10% of my portfolio in equities and not in a diversified way. The other 90% is basically in cash instruments (CD ladders, premium money market, etc)
My thoughts are this:
1. I'm retired and my nest egg will easily take care of me for the rest of my life. Even if it only earns +/- 4%
link to original post
I wouldn't have sold off it was 1% interest in the t-bills.
But 4% or so is good enough for me in case I gambled wrong and the stock market climbs.
I'll accept 4% as a consolation prize
link to original post
agreed!
Quote: BigSlick
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
I never considered Steve Jobs to be a tech innovator. To me, he was an amazing marketer and marketing visionary but he never had many tech skills. Musk on the other hand participates in engineering meeting and contributes technical insight. I am not a Musk fanboy, but I do think he understands many of the technical details of his products.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: billryanMy Godson married a girl whose family is big on borrowing from their life insurance. He's been doing it for about eight years, and it appears to be working well, although he was very reluctant to discuss it in detail when I asked.
link to original post
Sounds like he has either whole life or universal life. Tell him to sell it and buy term life.
Eat the redemption fees now and save a fortune for the decades to come
link to original post
He and his wife somehow used their life insurance to buy a 1.7 million dollar house and a vacation condo. As I said, I don't understand it and he is reluctant to explain it
Quote: DRichQuote: BigSlick
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
I never considered Steve Jobs to be a tech innovator. To me, he was an amazing marketer and marketing visionary but he never had many tech skills. Musk on the other hand participates in engineering meeting and contributes technical insight. I am not a Musk fanboy, but I do think he understands many of the technical details of his products.
link to original post
I must respectfully disagree. I saw Jobs as a tech visionary. He created the Mac OS and a slew of products. And, yes, he was a master Product Manager and marketer.
He was distinguished from Gates who literally bought the M$ operating system.
Aside from the Cybertruck, for what what can Musk honestly be given innovation credit?
Quote: BigSlickQuote: DRichQuote: BigSlick
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
I never considered Steve Jobs to be a tech innovator. To me, he was an amazing marketer and marketing visionary but he never had many tech skills. Musk on the other hand participates in engineering meeting and contributes technical insight. I am not a Musk fanboy, but I do think he understands many of the technical details of his products.
link to original post
I must respectfully disagree. I saw Jobs as a tech visionary. He created the Mac OS and a slew of products. And, yes, he was a master Product Manager and marketer.
He was distinguished from Gates who literally bought the M$ operating system.
Aside from the Cybertruck, for what what can Musk honestly be given innovation credit?
Paypal disrupted the banking industry.
Space X has revolutionized space exploration with its reusable rockets.
Tesla disrupted the auto industry and popularized electric vehicles.
His Starlink system is changing communication.
The Boring Company is building tunnels under several cities which will make commuting much easier in the near future.
His Neurolink company has shown a lot of potential.
Either he has a Forrest Gump-like ability to be in the right place at the right time, or he might actually have some responsibility for these things.
link to original post
Quote: BigSlickQuote: DRichQuote: BigSlick
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
I never considered Steve Jobs to be a tech innovator. To me, he was an amazing marketer and marketing visionary but he never had many tech skills. Musk on the other hand participates in engineering meeting and contributes technical insight. I am not a Musk fanboy, but I do think he understands many of the technical details of his products.
link to original post
I must respectfully disagree. I saw Jobs as a tech visionary. He created the Mac OS and a slew of products. And, yes, he was a master Product Manager and marketer.
He was distinguished from Gates who literally bought the M$ operating system.
Aside from the Cybertruck, for what what can Musk honestly be given innovation credit?
link to original post
Are you aware the MacOs was very close to a copy of the OS being used at Xerox at the time? That was after the Apple team visited Xerox Parc and Xerox refused to license it.
Quote: billryan
Paypal disrupted the banking industry.
Space X has revolutionized space exploration with its reusable rockets.
Tesla disrupted the auto industry and popularized electric vehicles.
His Starlink system is changing communication.
The Boring Company is building tunnels under several cities which will make commuting much easier in the near future.
His Neurolink company has shown a lot of potential.
Either he has a Forrest Gump-like ability to be in the right place at the right time, or he might actually have some responsibility for these things.
There is another possibility: that he is a sociopath who likes to acquire success and acclaim at the expense of his more talented peers. This is quite common among ceo's-there are several academic studies backing this up. You yourself noted he lists himself as a founder of Tesla when he simply is not in any sense, he was also thrown out of Paypal. He has a lohg history of strange behavior, and is deeply addicted to drugs.
Like many Silicon Valley types Musk has demonstrated a skill for acquiring investor capital and government subsidy, but no real ability to actually make money with that he has acquired. Most of us have to make more money than we spend with our talents in order to eat, Musk cannot do so with billions of dollars at his disposal.
He could succeed in the future we can't say-but after his political forays the Tesla brand is toxic and will never recover in Europe or China, perhaps the US also. He is almost universally despised and subject to constant ridicule outside the US. It is difficult to see how he could turn that around. Perhaps he can simply survive on investor sentiment forever like modern art does but you would imagine at some point investors will pull the plug when it becomes apparent his businesses never make money.
Quote: DRichQuote: BigSlickQuote: DRichQuote: BigSlick
Personally, I just don't get how folks can believe that he is at the same level of innovation and tech as Steve Jobs was. A recent study showed that his foray into politics cost Tesla 1M in EV sales; units - not dollars.
I never considered Steve Jobs to be a tech innovator. To me, he was an amazing marketer and marketing visionary but he never had many tech skills. Musk on the other hand participates in engineering meeting and contributes technical insight. I am not a Musk fanboy, but I do think he understands many of the technical details of his products.
link to original post
I must respectfully disagree. I saw Jobs as a tech visionary. He created the Mac OS and a slew of products. And, yes, he was a master Product Manager and marketer.
He was distinguished from Gates who literally bought the M$ operating system.
Aside from the Cybertruck, for what what can Musk honestly be given innovation credit?
link to original post
Are you aware the MacOs was very close to a copy of the OS being used at Xerox at the time? That was after the Apple team visited Xerox Parc and Xerox refused to license it.
link to original post
I was not aware of that but it sounds like something that is worth researching. I don't remember anything about Xerox being involved with operating systems. I do remember IBM and OS2.
This is not really true. It comes from a famous Bill Gates quote....
“Well, Steve [Jobs]… I think it’s more like we both had this rich neighbour named Xerox and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.”
― Bill Gates
Xerox did indeed develop a lot of modern computer tech first.
But in actuality, Jobs and Apple had:a formal arrangement with Xerox ($1 million stock investment for access) Jobs visited Xerox and saw the development of concepts like windows and icons. However he could reasonably claim legitimate rights to develop that tech based on their formal relationship. Xerox could have done it themselves, they chose not to. The tech would have died without Jobs.
Gates had nothing. The burglary analogy was something he came up with to apply equivalence but the truth is that Jobs took the tech Xerox had developed and basically abandoned and did something with it. Gates then came up with a cheap knock-off version which everyone knew was inferior. There's no equivalence there. Look through Gates's history and you find there is a lot of creepy bottom-feeder stuff like this going on.
Quote: BigSlick
I was not aware of that but it sounds like something that is worth researching. I don't remember anything about Xerox being involved with operating systems. I do remember IBM and OS2.
link to original post
"The Alto is the first computer with a graphical operating system, and was built on earlier graphical interface designs. It was conceived in 1972 in a memo written by Butler Lampson, inspired by the oN-Line System (NLS) developed by Douglas Engelbart and Dustin Lindberg at SRI International (SRI).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xerox_Alto
Quote: DRichQuote: BigSlick
I was not aware of that but it sounds like something that is worth researching. I don't remember anything about Xerox being involved with operating systems. I do remember IBM and OS2.
link to original post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xerox_Alto
link to original post
Thank you. Very interesting.
Quote: DRich
"The Alto is the first computer with a graphical operating system, and was built on earlier graphical interface designs. It was conceived in 1972 in a memo written by Butler Lampson, inspired by the oN-Line System (NLS) developed by Douglas Engelbart and Dustin Lindberg at SRI International (SRI).
It was conceived much earlier than 1972. There is a demo on youtube "Mother of All Demos" or "Douglas Engelbart 1968". It shows a fully operational mouse and other modern systems decades before they became used commonly. Worth watching IMO it is mind-blowing.
I'm hearing more and more chatter saying that AI is causing a stock market bubble that will cause the markets to crash
I'm not immune - I think they have convinced me - I'm not selling - if I did I would have a huge capital gains tax obligation - I will gut it out
I just watched a discussion - some very bright people indicating this - and comparing it to the crash of 1929
it took about 15 years for the markets to recover from the dot.com crash of 2000
.
IMHO, I think the CapEx spending related to AI is nowhere near cresting - at least as it applies to the infrastructure stocks like semis, data centers, and (soon) quantum. Enterprises have not figured out what AI can or will do for them. They just know that they need AI because their competitors will have it. Non-tech companies will be reliant on software providers so their returns are still on a roadmap somewhere while the software providers (SaaS, CRM...) figure out how to leverage AI.
I am more concerned about the overall economy itself. Nobody seems to talk about it (or seem concerned about it) but prices are going through the roof. I can't imagine how a young family can adjust to these prices. I'm not hearing that wages are going up. Just prices and by unreal percentages. I've also heard that the full impact of tariffs may still be coming because many retailers stocked up pre-tariff. If that's true, then once those stockpiles are depleted, there will be additional price increases.
For me, the nightmare scenario is that prices continue to skyrocket, folks stop making mortgage payments because food is more important than mortgage, and we end up with another housing crisis coupled with increased unemployment and extreme inflation with no way to reduce prices because of the impact of tariffs.
This holiday season will be one to watch. If retail disappoints (IMHO) we can expect discretionary CapEx to stop and then things will start to unwind rapidly. I'm not a doom and gloom guy, but if we do crash, I think it will make 1929 look like a party.
An interesting conversation would be to talk about the "price at the pump" as a leading indicator and the fact that it's relatively stable right now BUT we have high prices. Lord forbid something impact the price of gas!
Please don't invest based on anything I might say - this is all purely my opinion and viewpoint. Still, remember that if you sell and have to pay Capital Gains taxes you made money. There are worse things.
For now, "Stop Loss" is my favorite trade.
I was on vacation in Mexico when the market collapsed in 2008, listening to the radio as John McCain suspended his campaign to rush back to Washington. I was so glad I had stop losses on almost everything. That night, I suddenly remembered the stop losses were only good for so long, and might have expired. It was a long night before I could get internet access and found out everything had worked as planned. Some of my stop-losses would have expired in a week if I hadn't renewed them.
I did have a scare when I logged on and saw my equity balance but quickly turned my frown upside down when I saw the cash balance. I used the cash to buy some stocks that were unfairly punished.
It was painful and stressful. But I didn't sell anything and made myself buy instead [rebalance]. Overall these were just the ticket for me to come out in even better shape, but I don't deny the stressQuote: BigSlickI hear the same chatter, but I can't help but wonder if we haven't evolved to a state where we are always looking for disastrous bubbles because we did have to survive the dot com and the housing bubbles and they were painful.
Depends. If it is like the 70s, ugh. If it is like the two you cite, we'll be fineQuote:Those of us who survived both are too old to need to survive another one. We don't really have the runway to recover again.
I hate the idea of 'stop loss'. Just saying.Quote:For now, "Stop Loss" is my favorite trade.
link to original post
