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lilredrooster
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November 25th, 2025 at 7:02:28 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Folks need to realize there is a massive difference between having a million dollars saved for retirement and having a million dollars saved in an IRA.


that is correct if the account is a traditional Ira, but it is not correct if it is a Roth Ira

in fact, in a Roth Ira the tax treatment for withdrawals is quite a bit better than for a non Ira account (no capital gains taxes and no dividend taxes)

a non IRA account that has been accumulating for 30 years or so with no withdrawals is very likely to generate significant capital gains tax obligations

there are also no capital gains tax obligations and no dividend taxes in a traditional Ira account


Roth IRA

Tax treatment: Contributions are made with after-tax money, meaning there is no upfront tax deduction.
Withdrawals: Qualified withdrawals in retirement are tax-free.
Mandatory withdrawals: There are no RMDs during the original owner's lifetime.
Early withdrawals: Contributions can be withdrawn penalty- and tax-free at any time.

Tax-Free Growth: All investment earnings, including dividends, interest, and capital gains, grow tax-free within the Roth IRA account. This allows your investments to compound more effectively over time without annual "tax drag".
Qualified Withdrawals are Tax-Free: When you withdraw funds in retirement, both your original contributions and all accumulated earnings (including dividends) are 100% free from federal income tax and penalties, provided two conditions are met:
You are at least 59½ years old.
The account has been open for at least five years (the 5-year rule, which starts on January 1 of the tax year of your first contribution to any Roth IRA).

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 25, 2025
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billryan
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November 25th, 2025 at 7:40:18 AM permalink
67-year-old retirees are not eligible for a ROTH IRA unless they are still working. As far as I know, it's only suitable for earned income, not passive income. I'd love to be wrong, and hopefully they change the rules.
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SOOPOO
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November 25th, 2025 at 10:44:22 AM permalink
Interesting day. Market overall up a lot. But NVDA down a lot! This shows the strength of the overall market.

I had a bond mature today, so had some cash to either invest or put in the money market account. I bought MP. Because it is my granddaughter’s initials. Night more RGTI on its big dip today, so I’m happy with my total dollar investment there.

I do have some more of that bond money to put into stocks if someone has a suggestion!
lilredrooster
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November 25th, 2025 at 12:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I do have some more of that bond money to put into stocks if someone has a suggestion!


these are not my picks but came up when I searched "stocks that are a strong buy"
these 3 went up a lot today
I'm sure you will research them - I haven't -

"Stocks with Strong Analyst Consensus (WallStreetZen)

Wall Street analysts have given "strong buy" consensus ratings to several companies, with significant projected upside potential:

Celsius Holdings (CELH): A beverage company with a price target suggesting a potential 79% upside.

Corcept Therapeutics (CORT): A biopharmaceutical company with a price target suggesting a potential 74% upside.

Hesai Group (HSAI): An autonomous driving tech company with a price target suggesting a potential 73% upside."

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odiousgambit
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November 25th, 2025 at 12:57:44 PM permalink
For Roths and regular IRAs, they say what is best will depend on your tax bracket when you retire.

I know someone who faithfully invested in regular IRA as soon as you were allowed to do that, sometime in late 70s I think. He was never a 6 figure earner, retiring at 70 or so, not earning 6 figures then either. He says this is his first year to have an RMD and has to take out $50,000. I think he should have gone Roth, as much as possible, as he wasn't in a big tax bracket when earning. Of course I'm not sure about all that, maybe it works out about the same, but for sure he has a big tax bite. Personally, I like to combine Roth withdrawals with regular withdrawals to lower taxes

according to the RMD calculator, he has around $1,300,000 in that account. I'm not sure he realized he was telling me that as that's not like him. He even always avoided telling me his age exactly, now I know he turned 73 in 2025
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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November 25th, 2025 at 1:14:04 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Personally, I like to combine Roth withdrawals with regular withdrawals to lower taxes


good for you
you're operating in a tax efficient way
better than me
I've made quite a few mistakes
most of them I rectified fairly quickly as I got older and wiser
but not the Ira thing - mine is a traditional Ira - I could have done much better with a Roth
I beat myself up about that quite often

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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November 25th, 2025 at 1:36:02 PM permalink
I'm sure it cost me a few dollars along the way, but I wanted to be sure the money was taxed while I had significant deductions and credits.
There is so much untaxed revenue in these tax-deferred accounts that I suspect the government will go after them in the near future.
The U.S. has roughly $45 trillion in tax-deferred accounts while facing a nearly $40 trillion deficit. Deferring much-needed revenue in a debt crisis may fall out of favor in DC.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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November 25th, 2025 at 1:51:46 PM permalink
We must not forget the 10-15% of our neighbors who had to dig into their tax-deferred accounts before they turn 59 and pay heavily for it.

Years ago (the 1990s), I looked into taking out a $50,000 withdrawal. There was a $5,000 penalty off the top. Then $12,000 in Federal, and $3,000 in state and NYC taxes. There was no way I was losing 40% of my withdrawal, especially as I needed $50,000 cash. I'd have to have taken out almost $85,000 to get $50,000 cash, but I didn't have it.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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November 25th, 2025 at 2:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

We must not forget the 10-15% of our neighbors who had to dig into their tax-deferred accounts before they turn 59 and pay heavily for it.

Years ago (the 1990s), I looked into taking out a $50,000 withdrawal. There was a $5,000 penalty off the top. Then $12,000 in Federal, and $3,000 in state and NYC taxes. There was no way I was losing 40% of my withdrawal, especially as I needed $50,000 cash. I'd have to have taken out almost $85,000 to get $50,000 cash, but I didn't have it.
link to original post



Bill, why are you paying New York taxes on it? I thought you lived permanently in AZ now.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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November 25th, 2025 at 5:49:35 PM permalink
It was years ago, and I was a NYC resident, so I owed New York State and NYC taxes.
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DRich
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November 26th, 2025 at 5:09:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

It was years ago, and I was a NYC resident, so I owed New York State and NYC taxes.
link to original post



Sorry, clearly I didn't read the whole post. I thought you were speaking in the present.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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November 26th, 2025 at 6:52:36 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

It was years ago, and I was a NYC resident, so I owed New York State and NYC taxes.
link to original post



Sorry, clearly I didn't read the whole post. I thought you were speaking in the present.
link to original post[/q

You are forgiven.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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December 1st, 2025 at 8:55:14 AM permalink
I logged on to an infrequent occurrence. Every stock I own outside my managed portfolios was in the RED. As of now, a couple have crept into the green for the day, but ALL RED is not what I was hoping for to start the new month.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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December 1st, 2025 at 10:57:47 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I logged on to an infrequent occurrence. Every stock I own outside my managed portfolios was in the RED. As of now, a couple have crept into the green for the day, but ALL RED is not what I was hoping for to start the new month.
link to original post



You must own very few stocks. I’m around 50 green, 100 red as we speak. Total portfolio down 0.05% or so. A blip.
billryan
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December 1st, 2025 at 11:17:21 AM permalink
I own 22 stocks, down a couple from last month,and a few minutes after opening, they were all down. I didn't look at the total; they were down, but not by much.
As of a few minutes ago, it looked about 50-50, but overall, it was down about a third of a percent.

I have two managed accounts- one for domestic stocks and one for international. They each own about 200 stocks, but I don't consider that owning the stocks. I'm in the process of selling a few stocks, reducing positions, and parking cash in SGOV until something better comes along.
Some of my stocks counterbalance each other, so it is rare for them all to go in the same direction.
Last edited by: billryan on Dec 1, 2025
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2025 at 12:25:21 PM permalink
New ATH. +231%. Best stock today is PETS. Up a mere 83% today. I wonder if my TWCUX will be lower today? Heavy on NVDA, which is down around 2%. One stock (Kellanova) turned into cash today. So just put the $$ into money market, now earning 3.75%.

Recent stock purchases have been throughly analyzed.

Bought MP. (Granddaughter’s initials)
RIO. (Dog’s name)
CORT. (WoV recommendation)
RGTI. (WoV recommendation).
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 11:03:17 AM permalink
I got the last monthly payout from CEPI today. The stock is currently priced at $34 and change and paid out $17.10 for the year.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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December 24th, 2025 at 1:51:46 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I got the last monthly payout from CEPI today. The stock is currently priced at $34 and change and paid out $17.10 for the year.
link to original post



All depends on what the price was a year ago! I found it at $51 in January! So from that date it is a ZERO! Stock price down exactly what they distributed to you!

You are aware it might be your worst investment of the year?

Anyway, new ATH at +231% today. May this bubble never burst! I do VERY SLOWLY keep increasing my money market accounts. When grandson is born early January I will buy stock with his initials….
DrawingDead
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December 24th, 2025 at 2:22:20 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I got the last monthly payout from CEPI today. The stock is currently priced at $34 and change and paid out $17.10 for the year.
link to original post

Yes, currently trading at $34.30. And tt was "priced at" $49.22 to begin the calendar year, for a year to date loss in share price of a little over 30% of 'invested' capital. The net of published payouts (actually listed as totalling $16.998 - pretax of course), less the large loss of capital results in a total net return of $2.078 per share, for a net total annual return of just about +4%. IMO the most appropriate metric for comparison to calculate the 'opportunity cost' involved would probably be to the the NASDAQ, but depending on which indices one prefers to look at to measure the performance of the overall publicly traded US equity market, during that time the broad market (currently trading at an all-time record high as of today's closing prices) increased about 20% (S&P500), or 15% (Dow Jones Industrial Average), or 22% (NASDAQ Composite)... not counting any of the additional returns from dividends paid by those enterprises comprising the widely followed measures of 'the stock market.'.

Quote:

Date - - - - - Dividend
Dec 23, 2025 1.233 Dividend
Nov 26, 2025 1.228 Dividend
Oct 28, 2025 1.496 Dividend
Sep 23, 2025 1.439 Dividend
Aug 26, 2025 1.414 Dividend
Jul 29, 2025 1.456 Dividend
Jun 24, 2025 1.38 Dividend
May 29, 2025 1.388 Dividend
Apr 29, 2025 1.329 Dividend
Mar 25, 2025 1.459 Dividend
Feb 25, 2025 1.578 Dividend
Jan 28, 2025 1.698 Dividend

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEPI/history/?filter=div]

EDIT to add:
Quote: Soopoo

I found it at $51 in January!

Or, as noted above, if purchased at the $51.13 price level of mid-January, the net was... a total seventeen cents, for a return of about zero percent, less the tax liability on the distributions.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Dec 24, 2025
Nothing to read here. Move along.
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 2:25:42 PM permalink
Timing is everything, but theoretical losses don't compare to actual ones. Lucky for me that I bought only about 3% in January, and the rest at lower prices. It wasn't the best investment, but it provided the income I needed with minimal downside exposure.
I've never owned a stock that approached a fifty percent payout. Few pay more than five percent.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 2:37:42 PM permalink
Once more, I didn't say it was a great investment, but as the price falls, yield rises.
A person who started the year with 1,000 shares may have lost share value if they sold, but they have $17,000 in cash and still own the 1,000 shares. It's bizarre that people pick an all-time high price as the comparison point, but some have to find the worst case.
It's a horrible stock, and all should stay far away. Yeah, that's the ticket. Stay far away.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DrawingDead
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SOOPOO
December 24th, 2025 at 2:57:13 PM permalink
The yield did not rise, it FELL steadily and sharply throughout the year..Commeasurate with the price. It is not a company distributing continuing profits from operations. In reality, what it did was effectively liquidate capital it raised for making the declining distributions. It is a speculative derivitive vehicle; It is not any sort of business enterprise.generating a continuing revenue stream from engaging in any ongoing productive activity. But I understand what matters to you is you are confident in how you feel about what you do and continue to feel good about it. Others may have differing purposes in mind.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Dec 24, 2025
Nothing to read here. Move along.
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 3:52:10 PM permalink
I do appreciate your perspective. I know exactly what the stock is and how it performed. I don't recall saying I was happy with the results, all I mentioned was that the stock ended the year with a yield of amost 50%. If you are looking for growth, it's not for you. If you want to boost your income and know the risk, I believe it has a place in a diversified portfolio.
As a comparison, Bitcoin has dropped from 126K to under 90, and produced zero income this year. How is the crypto market? How is the S&P 493 doing?
Am I happy with my strategy in 2025? Heck yes. My IRA is up almost 25%, my main account is up nearly 20%, and I got through another year without touching my nest egg. My SMAs are in line with my PMAs, and both are having good years.
Am I changing my strategy in 2026? Absoutely. Will people criticize my new investments? Most certainly. Will I care? I think we know the answer to that.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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December 24th, 2025 at 4:16:04 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I do appreciate your perspective. I know exactly what the stock is and how it performed. I don't recall saying I was happy with the results, all I mentioned was that the stock ended the year with a yield of amost 50%. If you are looking for growth, it's not for you. If you want to boost your income and know the risk, I believe it has a place in a diversified portfolio.
As a comparison, Bitcoin has dropped from 126K to under 90, and produced zero income this year. How is the crypto market? How is the S&P 493 doing?
Am I happy with my strategy in 2025? Heck yes. My IRA is up almost 25%, my main account is up nearly 20%, and I got through another year without touching my nest egg. My SMAs are in line with my PMAs, and both are having good years.
Am I changing my strategy in 2026? Absoutely. Will people criticize my new investments? Most certainly. Will I care? I think we know the answer to that.
link to original post



I do like your comment on ‘the S & P 493’! I hadn’t heard/thought/ been aware of that concept until very recently. I’m sure I’m vastly overweighted in ‘the S & P’ 7! Those stocks probably dominate my ETFs and certainly do in my single Mutual Fund (TWCUX).

I think though that you saying that CEPI had a ‘yield’ of 50% is disingenuous, if not downright misleading. It really mostly just returned the money you invested in it to you. Didn’t really ‘yield’ anything.

Anyway, if you are happy with its place in your portfolio, more power to you. If you remember, I joined you!
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 4:54:45 PM permalink
As I understand it, yield is the stock's annual payout relative to its price. A stock that costs $34 and pays out $17 has a yield of 50%.
At the current rate, an investor would recoup their investment in the stock in two years. That's a 50% yield. If and when the stock increases to $51, the yield would be 33% if payouts remain the same.
A stock's yield is not a good or bad thing; it simply is. All it indicates is potential future income. A low yield indicates a sustainable company, while a high yield indicates greater risk. Anyone who understands the market knows the higher the yield, the higher the risk. The higher the risk, the greater the potential.
If a stock sells for $50 and pays a $5 dividend, it has a 10% yield. It will pay for itself in ten years.
If it rises to $100 and still pays $5, then its yield has fallen to 5%. It will pay for itself in twenty year.s
If the stock falls to $25, it has a 20% yield. It will pay for itself in five years.
Is the $100 stock with the 5% yield better or worse than the other two options?
A younger investor might pursue the $100 stock as it shows growth potential. An older investor might seek the higher yield, as they want income, not growth. The wise investor diversifies and has all three.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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December 24th, 2025 at 5:41:17 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

As I understand it, yield is the stock's annual payout relative to its price. A stock that costs $34 and pays out $17 has a yield of 50%.
At the current rate, an investor would recoup their investment in the stock in two years. That's a 50% yield. If and when the stock increases to $51, the yield would be 33% if payouts remain the same.
A stock's yield is not a good or bad thing; it simply is. All it indicates is potential future income. A low yield indicates a sustainable company, while a high yield indicates greater risk. Anyone who understands the market knows the higher the yield, the higher the risk. The higher the risk, the greater the potential.
If a stock sells for $50 and pays a $5 dividend, it has a 10% yield. It will pay for itself in ten years.
If it rises to $100 and still pays $5, then its yield has fallen to 5%. It will pay for itself in twenty year.s
If the stock falls to $25, it has a 20% yield. It will pay for itself in five years.
Is the $100 stock with the 5% yield better or worse than the other two options?
A younger investor might pursue the $100 stock as it shows growth potential. An older investor might seek the higher yield, as they want income, not growth. The wise investor diversifies and has all three.
link to original post



You just can’t understand the simple concept that if a stock IS DESIGNED to have its value decrease over time the way you figure out its present yield is JUST WRONG. You can type as many paragraphs as you’d like but you just don’t make any real world sense.

Good luck with your portfolio.
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 6:17:28 PM permalink
Fidelity lists its yield as 49%. Perhaps if you tell me what your definition of yield is, we'd get somewhere. I'm using the definition I was taught 40 years ago, which both Google and Alexa say is current usage.
Why would you think CEPI is designed to have its value decrease? It's #1 stated goal is capital appreciation. When crypto goes through its next boom, so will CEPI. Meanwhile, it generates income from covered calls. CEPI offers exposure to the cryptocurrency portfolio while providing a steady income stream.
Crypto had a bad year. If it rebounds, so will CEPI. If Crypto sinks, I still have income generated by the covered calls. What I'm giving up is some potential upside- just like JEPI, JEPQ, QQQI, and a dozen other dividend buys.
You and I have different needs. I seek income, you seek growth.
Last edited by: billryan on Dec 24, 2025
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SOOPOO
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December 24th, 2025 at 7:00:18 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Fidelity lists its yield as 49%. Perhaps if you tell me what your definition of yield is, we'd get somewhere. I'm using the definition I was taught 40 years ago, which both Google and Alexa say is current usage.
Why would you think CEPI is designed to have its value decrease? It's #1 stated goal is capital appreciation. When crypto goes through its next boom, so will CEPI. Meanwhile, it generates income from covered calls. CEPI offers exposure to the cryptocurrency portfolio while providing a steady income stream.
Crypto had a bad year. If it rebounds, so will CEPI. If Crypto sinks, I still have income generated by the covered calls. What I'm giving up is some potential upside- just like JEPI, JEPQ, QQQI, and a dozen other dividend buys.
You and I have different needs. I seek income, you seek growth.
link to original post



Seriously, you really believe the stock is designed to provide a 49% ‘yield’ and achieve growth also? Anyway, I now seek growth, income, AND capital preservation. Not an easy task!
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 7:28:06 PM permalink
So there is no confusion-CEPI is a high-yield, high-risk ETF highly influenced by crypto prices. The analysts I use price it in the low 50s, with one calling it a $100 stock, but I care about the income. It is literally swimming in uncharted waters, and investors must balance income potential with the exposure to the CC market and its risks. Bitcoin and its cousins had a bad year. So did CEPI, only it returned high payouts to its stockholders.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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December 24th, 2025 at 7:39:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

Fidelity lists its yield as 49%. Perhaps if you tell me what your definition of yield is, we'd get somewhere. I'm using the definition I was taught 40 years ago, which both Google and Alexa say is current usage.
Why would you think CEPI is designed to have its value decrease? It's #1 stated goal is capital appreciation. When crypto goes through its next boom, so will CEPI. Meanwhile, it generates income from covered calls. CEPI offers exposure to the cryptocurrency portfolio while providing a steady income stream.
Crypto had a bad year. If it rebounds, so will CEPI. If Crypto sinks, I still have income generated by the covered calls. What I'm giving up is some potential upside- just like JEPI, JEPQ, QQQI, and a dozen other dividend buys.
You and I have different needs. I seek income, you seek growth.
link to original post



Seriously, you really believe the stock is designed to provide a 49% ‘yield’ and achieve growth also? Anyway, I now seek growth, income, AND capital preservation. Not an easy task!
link to original post



As the price rises, the yield will go down. With any luck, it will be yielding 25% this time next year. I hope it someday yields 10%, as long as it keeps paying $17.00 a year. When I first bought it, it was yielding in the mid-twenties.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 5:44:25 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Fidelity lists its yield as 49%.


don't have any idea where you got that figure
are you referring to a different investment-?
if so please post performance data by searching the ticker symbol, performance, and yahoo finance
I would very much like to see that from an authoritative source, not just your post

the link is Fidelity's performance

this is what I got when I asked Google what is Fidelity's yield:

"AI Overview
The yield for Fidelity 500 Index Fund (FXAIX) is around 1.1% to 1.11% (Trailing Twelve Months), reflecting the dividends from its S&P 500 holdings, paid quarterly. This yield is based on recent distributions, with figures like $0.73 per share recently paid and an annual rate estimated around $2.65-$2.69.
Key Details:
Yield: Approximately 1.1% - 1.11% (TTM).
Payout: Quarterly.
Recent Dividend: Around $0.73 per share (ex-date Dec 19, 2025)."

this is what I got when I asked Google about the yield of Fidelity's High Dividend Fund:

"AI Overview
The yield for the Fidelity High Dividend ETF (FDVV) is around 2.8% to 3.2% as of late 2025, with specific figures varying slightly by source, but generally reflecting recent performance; for example, {Link: MarketWatch reported 2.87% and Morningstar noted a 3.02% TTM (trailing twelve months) yield, while another source saw it around 3% for the year, showing strong performance in the large-value space. "

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDVV/performance/

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FXAIX/performance/

I also searched the performance of others you mentioned - JEPI, JEPQ, and QQQI

their performance, which includes dividends and stock appreciation, was not great, none of them outperformed the S&P 500 ytd

JEPI's total 5 year total return was 9.9%_____________JEPQ had a nice 3 year total return of 22.30%________QQQI only lists one year - about the same as the S&P 500

JEPQ's 3 year total return was slightly higher than that of the S&P 500

yahoo's total return means average return per year

.

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 25, 2025
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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 7:12:28 AM permalink
I've honestly no idea what you are referring to, but it is evidently very different from anything I discussed.
I'm not sure how hard it is to look up CEPI on Fidelity or any site and see its yield. Perhaps you could ask Alexa or Siri for help.

FDVV is a Fidelity mutual fund and has nothing to do with REX's CEPI.
CEPI is currently priced around $35 and pays a monthly dividend. This month's payout was $1.21 per share, and for 2025, it was roughly $17 per share.
I just googled- What is CEPI's current yield? The answer was 41-50%, depending on the metrics used.

Did CEPI have a good year? No, it didn't. CEPI is a way to invest in cryptocurrency without actually holding the stocks and earn money from covered calls on its stocks. When the cryptocurrency market rebounds, so will CEPI's stock price. In the meantime, the stockholders have to survive off its monthly payouts.

If anyone knows a better way to draw $22,000 annually out of a sub$50,000 investment, I'm all ears. Last year was my first year investing heavily in covered call options, and while I'm pleased with the results, they seem to upset people.














When I ask Google what is CEPIs current yield, it replied 41-50%, depending on the methods used.
Does Google not tell you the same thing?
Last edited by: billryan on Dec 25, 2025
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lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 7:20:33 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I've honestly no idea what you are referring to, but it is evidently very different from anything I discussed.
I'm not sure how hard it is to look up CEPI on Fidelity or any site and see its yield. Perhaps you could ask Alexa or Siri for help.

FDVV is a Fidelity mutual fund and has nothing to do with REX's CEPI.
CEPI is currently priced around $35 and pays a monthly dividend. This month's payout was $1.21 a share, and for 2025, it was roughly $17 a share. I'm beginning to understand why some people are afraid of the stock market.
link to original post


okay, CEPI

I thought you were referring to the Fidelity fund itself - your post said "Fidelity lists its yield" - my bad I guess

CEPI has a very high dividend yield as you indicated but has a ytd total return of only 13.5% - see link - one year 9.22%

much less than the S&P 500

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEPI/

also from Google:


"AI Overview
The REX Crypto Equity Premium Income ETF (CEPI) was launched on December 3 or 4, 2024; therefore, year-by-year total returns are only available for 2024 and 2025 (Year-to-Date). There are no returns for previous years.
Below are the approximate total returns:
2025 (Year-to-Date): Approximately 13.50% or 10.5% (returns vary slightly by reporting source and whether based on market price or NAV).
2024 (Annual): Approximately 20.80% (market price) or 21.09% (NAV) since its inception in December 2024. This can also be seen as a 1-year return of around 5.33% or 9.82% depending on the specific 1-year period measured. "

looking back over your posts I guess you've said as much and I somehow missed it - so again, my bad - good luck with that - I now understand your point of view and your strategy

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 25, 2025
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Tanko
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December 25th, 2025 at 7:46:24 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I also searched the performance of others you mentioned - JEPI, JEPQ, and QQQI

their performance, which includes dividends and stock appreciation, was not great, none of them outperformed the S&P 500 ytd

link to original post



SPY 3 yr return 21%

For growth, including dividends:

MO 7.19% Div. 59% 3yr return
PM 3.62% Div. 82% 3yr Return
BTI 5.48% Div. 73% 3yr return - Has a high payout ratio, but massive $9 billion free cash flow funds the high dividend

For growth:

GOOG 254% 3yr return
AMZN 173% 3 yr return
lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 7:52:39 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Quote: lilredrooster

I also searched the performance of others you mentioned - JEPI, JEPQ, and QQQI

their performance, which includes dividends and stock appreciation, was not great, none of them outperformed the S&P 500 ytd

link to original post



SPY 3 yr return 21%

For growth, including dividends:

MO 7.19% Div. 59% 3yr return
PM 3.62% Div. 82% 3yr Return
BTI 5.48% Div. 73% 3yr return - Has a high payout ratio, but massive $9 billion free cash flow funds the high dividend

For growth:

GOOG 254% 3yr return
AMZN 173% 3 yr return
link to original post


of course, it's easy to pick out a few stocks that crushed the S&P
but if I had done the picking I surely would have picked others that did poorly along with maybe some super performers
if you can pick the super performers year after year - that's great - I'm extremely impressed
of course, in down years, those super performers will get crushed by more than the overall market

having said that how hard would it be to pick Google and Amazon -? - not that hard - I should have been less conservative and may be in the future

NVDA (Nividia) has a 5 year total return of 1,351% -

I did get in on some of that - but of course, not the whole 5 years - just about one year - still it's been great

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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 8:11:01 AM permalink
This is some unsolicited free advice, and take it as you want but as long as you obsess over the S&P 500 and see everything in it's terms, you won't see the forest through the trees. Is the S&P 500 even attempt to be tax-efficient?
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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 8:17:56 AM permalink
I think my first Nvidia purchase was a tad over $100 a share, and if I recall correctly, it dropped down to the high 80s. I don't have a prominent position, but it is at $112 average purchase. One of my top stocks for the year, along with Walmart, Netflix, and Amazon- all of which I am in the process of selling. I don't see those three repeating 2025's performance in 2026.
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SOOPOO
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December 25th, 2025 at 8:25:02 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

This is some unsolicited free advice, and take it as you want but as long as you obsess over the S&P 500 and see everything in it's terms, you won't see the forest through the trees. Is the S&P 500 even attempt to be tax-efficient?
link to original post



Just checked. Around 86% of my total portfolio is in tax deferred accounts. So not that important for me. And if it was, SPY is a pretty good ‘don’t pay taxes till you sell’ ETF. Its distribution is only around 1%. So the vast majority of your gains last year were tax deferred.
lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 8:27:13 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

This is some unsolicited free advice, and take it as you want but as long as you obsess over the S&P 500 and see everything in it's terms, you won't see the forest through the trees. Is the S&P 500 even attempt to be tax-efficient?


I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with the S&P 500
it's not my biggest holding - VGT is - Vanguard's tech fund
I'm trying to be sure I don't get crushed by making bad picks
but again, if I was more aggressive and highly competent, I could have done much better - I'm not saying otherwise

both funds are highly tax efficient

for perspective - Google lost about 34% in 2022 and Amazon lost about 50% in that year
Google lost about 55% in 2008 and Amazon lost about 62.5% in the same year

from Google's bot:

"AI Overview

The S&P 500, when invested in via an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), is considered highly tax-efficient due to its low portfolio turnover and specific fund structure. This efficiency stems from a buy-and-hold strategy and tax deferral until the investor sells their shares.

Key Factors in S&P 500 Tax Efficiency

Low Turnover: The S&P 500 is a passively managed index that holds most of its stocks for a long time, so it rarely sells shares and realizes taxable capital gains at the fund level. This minimizes taxable distributions to shareholders throughout the year.

ETF Structure: ETFs have a unique creation/redemption mechanism that allows fund managers to exchange appreciated shares with financial intermediaries (authorized participants) instead of selling them on the open market for cash. This process effectively helps the fund avoid distributing capital gains to all shareholders, which is a major advantage over traditional mutual funds."

I believe the same tax situation applies to my other main investment - VGT



here is some more data on Amazon which to me shows that nothing is a sure thing in that Amazon is such a powerhouse:

"AI Overview
As of late December 2025, Amazon (AMZN) has shown a positive Year-to-Date (YTD) return, with figures around 5.9% to 11.3%, depending on the source and exact day, indicating solid growth from the start of the year, outperforming some peers but lagging behind the broader S&P 500 benchmark"

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 25, 2025
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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 9:04:13 AM permalink
Only my opinion, but tax deferred means more when you have a twenty or thirty-year horizon than when you are retired. Given a choice between paying taxes this year, when I know my buying power, or owing taxes on uncertain income in seven years, I choose to play it safe. It's great to know that projections tell me I'll have X dollars in 2055, but no one knows what that will buy or what taxes on it will be.
I'd rather not kick the can down the road.
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lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 9:19:16 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Only my opinion, but tax deferred means more when you have a twenty or thirty-year horizon than when you are retired. Given a choice between paying taxes this year, when I know my buying power, or owing taxes on uncertain income in seven years, I choose to play it safe. It's great to know that projections tell me I'll have X dollars in 2055, but no one knows what that will buy or what taxes on it will be.
I'd rather not kick the can down the road.
link to original post


the idea, of course, for many, is that they will owe very little or nothing because their income is so low if they're not working when they do sell

many will only be collecting s.s. and s.s. has special favorable rules re taxation also

in your CEPI investment you will be paying a very sizeable tax on dividends even though the total value of your investment even when considering dividends may have dropped significantly since the time that you bought it

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 25, 2025
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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 9:52:32 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Only my opinion, but tax deferred means more when you have a twenty or thirty-year horizon than when you are retired. Given a choice between paying taxes this year, when I know my buying power, or owing taxes on uncertain income in seven years, I choose to play it safe. It's great to know that projections tell me I'll have X dollars in 2055, but no one knows what that will buy or what taxes on it will be.
I'd rather not kick the can down the road.
link to original post


the idea, of course, for many, is that they will owe very little or nothing because their income is so low if they're not working when they do sell

many will only be collecting s.s. and s.s. has special favorable rules re taxation also

in your CEPI investment you will be paying tax on dividends even though the total value of your investment may have dropped since the time that you bought it

.
link to original post




That is the theory for deferring taxes. It doesn't mean it works out for everyone, especially low-income people. For the wealthy, RMDS on a nice portfolio eliminates most low-income brackets.
As far as dividends from CEPI, it is complicated. The monthly payout is divided between a dividend, which is taxable, and a return of capital, which is not immediately taxable. I think the split is around 30% dividend and 70% ROC, but I'm not certain.
ETFs that offer ROCs are relatively new, so none have long-term track records. Many people think the payouts are fully taxable and look elsewhere. Everyones needs and situations are different.
Last edited by: billryan on Dec 25, 2025
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December 25th, 2025 at 10:03:14 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

....if you can pick the super performers year after year - that's great.
link to original post


I wish.

If I could do that, I never would have bought KHC and GIS.

Tobacco is only a part of my portfolio, but it helps the cash business.

Good performers don't necessarily get crushed during down years.

Company performance during down years like 2008 depends on their market, pricing power and cash flow.

MO for example, was down 23% in 2008, and PM was down 33%, while the S&P was down as much as 51% over the same period.

MO and PM fell as much or less than the S&P during the pandemic, while still maintaining their dividends. Their returns since the pandemic have exceeded the returns for the S&P over the same period.
lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 10:09:22 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Only my opinion, but tax deferred means more when you have a twenty or thirty-year horizon than when you are retired. Given a choice between paying taxes this year, when I know my buying power, or owing taxes on uncertain income in seven years, I choose to play it safe. It's great to know that projections tell me I'll have X dollars in 2055, but no one knows what that will buy or what taxes on it will be.
I'd rather not kick the can down the road.
link to original post


the idea, of course, for many, is that they will owe very little or nothing because their income is so low if they're not working when they do sell

many will only be collecting s.s. and s.s. has special favorable rules re taxation also

in your CEPI investment you will be paying tax on dividends even though the total value of your investment may have dropped since the time that you bought it

.
link to original post




That is the theory for deferring taxes. It doesn't mean it works out for everyone, especially low-income people. For the wealthy, RMDS on a nice portfolio eliminates most low-income brackets.
As far as dividends from CEPI, it is complicated. The monthly payout is divided between a dividend, which is taxable, and a return of capital, which is not immediately taxable. I think the split is around 30% dividend and 70% ROC, but I'm not certain.
link to original post


another nice point about taxes for people such as myself who plan to leave funds to their heirs
most states have no inheritance tax
and capital gains taxes are forgiven
which means if my plan works out (wanna make God laugh - make plans - (-:/_________ no taxes at all will be paid on the portion of my account that I pass on

from the google bot:

"AI Overview

Heirs generally do not owe capital gains taxes at the time they receive an inheritance, but may owe them if they later sell the inherited assets for a profit. The key factor is the "step-up in basis" rule, which can significantly reduce or eliminate the tax burden.

How the "Step-Up in Basis" Works

When you inherit an asset (like real estate or stocks), its value for tax purposes (its cost basis) is adjusted to its fair market value on the date of the original owner's death. This is called a "step-up in basis."

If you sell immediately: If you sell the asset for its stepped-up value, there is typically no taxable gain, and thus, no capital gains tax owed."


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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 10:31:07 AM permalink
ETFs that operate on a ROC basis are supposed to have benefits over regular ETFs when it comes to passing on to heirs. You might want to look into them with a retirement pro who stays on top of market developments.
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lilredrooster
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December 25th, 2025 at 12:44:13 PM permalink
.
pretty interesting and quite amusing - to me anyway - the story of the famous stock picker Jim Cramer

first - his credentials - then his performance - from Wiki -


"James Joseph Cramer (born February 10, 1955) is an American television personality, author, entertainer and former hedge fund manager. He is the host of Mad Money on CNBC and an anchor on Squawk on the Street. After graduating from Harvard College and Harvard Law School, he worked for Goldman Sachs and then became a hedge fund manager, founder and senior partner of Cramer Berkowitz.[2] He co-founded TheStreet, which he wrote for from 1996 to 2021. Cramer hosted Kudlow & Cramer from 2002 to 2005. Mad Money with Jim Cramer first aired on CNBC in 2005.[3] Cramer has written several books, including Confessions of a Street Addict (2002), Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World (2005), Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich (2006), Jim Cramer's Get Rich Carefully (2013), and How to Make Money in Any Market (2025)."


now here comes the fun stuff - his actual performance during various periods


"In January 2000, close to the peak of the dot-com bubble, Cramer recommended investing in technology stocks, and suggested a repeat of the stock performance of 1999.[46] In February 2000, the year in which Cramer said he produced a 36% return, Cramer said that there were only 10 stocks he wanted to own, and he was buying them every day. These stocks were 724 Solutions, Ariba, Digital Island, Exodus Communications, InfoSpace, Inktomi, Mercury Interactive, Sonera, VeriSign, and Veritas Software. He also dismissed the investing strategy of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, and said that price–earnings ratios did not matter.[47]

An August 20, 2007, article in Barron's stated that "his picks haven't beaten the market. Over the past two years, viewers holding Cramer's stocks would be up 12% while the Dow rose 22% and the S&P 500 16%."[48] Cramer was criticized for repeatedly giving erroneous advice during the 2008 financial crisis. He recommended investing in Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wachovia, and Lehman Brothers before the stocks fell in value significantly and several went out of business.[49][50] On August 8, 2008 before the climax of the 2008 financial crisis, Cramer recommended investing in bank stocks.[51]

On October 6, 2008 on Today, when the S&P 500 Index was valued at 1,056, Cramer suggested to investors, "Whatever money you need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market."[52][53] Five months later, the market bottomed at 666, a 36.9% decline.[54]

A February 9, 2009 article in The Wall Street Journal said that trading against Cramer's Buy recommendations using short-term options had historically yielded 25% in a month.[55]

On February 8, 2023, Cramer recommended viewers buy Silicon Valley Bank stock just a month before its collapse.[56] On March 10, he praised First Republic Bank as a "very good bank" in a Twitter post.[57] First Republic's stock dropped by more than 80% in the days following Cramer's tweet and on May 1, it also collapsed, becoming the third and final bank to fail in the 2023 banking crisis.

On the March 11, 2008, episode of Cramer's show Mad Money, a viewer submitted the question "Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there?" Cramer responded "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they're more likely to be taken over. Don't move your money from Bear."[68][69] On March 14, 2008, the stock lost more than half of its value on news of a Fed bailout and $2/share takeover by JPMorgan Chase.

An article by author Michael Lewis for Bloomberg News said that TheStreet listed Bear Stearns as a "Buy" at $62 per share on March 11, 2008, which was the same day as the caller's question and a day before the collapse of Bear Stearns.[73] During the Jon Stewart–Jim Cramer conflict, on The Daily Show on March 12, 2009, Cramer admitted he made mistakes on his Bear Stearns calls."


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer#Performance

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 25, 2025
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billryan
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December 25th, 2025 at 2:48:20 PM permalink
For a few years, the Kramer Effect or Bump was a real thing. He'd recommend a stock and his followers would pour money into it, causing it to rise. It would inevitably level off in a week or so, but some astute traders got a bite on both ends. I have not watched him in at least twenty years.
His branding made a nice chunk of change. If I recall correctly, he had tens of thousands of subscribers, at various levels, and none were cheap. He worked a horrible schedule. I think he had a 5 AM radio show and an 8 PM live radio show.
One problem is that many of today's traders grew up listening to him and are mimicking his style.
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billryan
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December 26th, 2025 at 10:13:57 AM permalink
Suddenly, every other commercial on YouTube is Cramer's CNBC Investment Club.
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billryan
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December 26th, 2025 at 3:25:17 PM permalink
Groq is a leader in the fast-booming AI sector. In its last investment round, it gave itself a nine-billion-dollar valuation.
This week, it entered into a relationship with Nvidia, signing a contract worth $20 billion. It's more than a license agreement, as Groq's management and most of their talent will now become Nvidia employees, but it seems the licensing isn't exclusive.
It appears Nvidia is using its insane amount of cash to maintain its status at the top by buying out any emerging competition. George Westinghouse would be proud.
The more things change.......
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lilredrooster
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December 27th, 2025 at 4:54:31 AM permalink
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the link from nasdaq.com lists the top "momentum" stocks
I generally don't buy stocks but I may pick one later in January as a kind of gamble with a small % of my stuff
I'll be looking for one that I think can do well beyond a very short term
comments on any-?

https://www.nasdaq.com/stocks/investing-lists/momentum-stocks

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