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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 4th, 2019 at 6:32:19 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Jim Cramer says chart analysts calls the top for the S&P 500:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/cramer-analyst-calls-a-top-in-the-sp-500-cruising-for-a-bruising.html

stocks will fall 10% soon, according to the expert.

this would be great for me.
while i wait for the fed to drop rates, the market falls.
after rates drop, my bonds will be worth more and stocks worth less.
sell bonds and go back into stocks.

sell high, buy low...



Glad I didn't listen to that 'expert'! Unless you consider a 7% GAIN in less than a month kind of like a 10% LOSS! It is so EASY for an 'expert' to throw out a prediction, one way or the other, and if it comes true yap on about all the 'signals' they saw, how their 'analysis' accurately predicted this..... And when they are 100% wrong they of course usually just say... NOTHING!

WoV portfolio now up 59%. More bond holdings at dismal 2% will cause me to lag the market if it keeps going up, but adds some safety if it does tank.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 9th, 2019 at 5:06:20 AM permalink
Hit 60%. In less than 6 years. I'm looking for one more stock pick from the forum. Throw me some suggestions.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 9th, 2019 at 8:11:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Hit 60%. In less than 6 years. I'm looking for one more stock pick from the forum. Throw me some suggestions.



Wait for Tesla to drop to around 275 and go heavy. Or, if you are into shorts, do it now and cash in on the way down as well.
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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November 9th, 2019 at 1:57:42 PM permalink
With the Fed again purchasing $60 billion a month in Treasury bills, and injecting another $120 billion per day into the overnight repo operations, I donít trust the market.

Been purchasing gold and bond etfs during this latest surge.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 9th, 2019 at 6:58:42 PM permalink
Thank you Billy and Tanko.

I already own Tesla. I also already own a gold mining stock. I won't buy a bond ETF. I prefer individual bonds, which I now own a bunch of.
I will consider increasing stake in Tesla or the gold stock.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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November 20th, 2019 at 4:04:20 PM permalink
it's almost the end of the year.
i switched 6figures worth of 'total Stock market' mutual fund to corporate bonds because i thought the market would collapse because Trump.

right now, that bond fund is up 21% but the 'total stock market' fund is up 25%.
i gambled that the market would implode and i lost.
but i was saved with the Fed lowering the prime rate, which made bonds more valuable.
phew...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 20th, 2019 at 4:44:23 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

it's almost the end of the year.
i switched 6figures worth of 'total Stock market' mutual fund to corporate bonds because i thought the market would collapse because Trump.

right now, that bond fund is up 21% but the 'total stock market' fund is up 25%.
i gambled that the market would implode and i lost.
but i was saved with the Fed lowering the prime rate, which made bonds more valuable.
phew...



Yeah.... my individual bonds are up that same %. For me it is only a paper gain, as I plan on holding......

Overall portfolio up 61% from inception.....


I would not say you lost, by the way. If 6 figures means say, $200k, you made $42k instead of $50k. Won less..... not lost!
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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November 21st, 2019 at 9:18:07 AM permalink
Might be too late, but Disney is value-added since introduction of Disney+ streaming service last week. There's probably some upward movement left. They're also doing a major addition to both parks that should open (I think) this spring, Star Wars themed. They expect a major influx of park fans because it's the biggest add in more than a decade. The MCU has also proved very lucrative, as have the live-action reboots of Disney classic animations.

Edit: oops, I see you already have DIS in that list a couple pages back. Get more anyway, and hope you had a nice bump the last few months.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 21st, 2019 at 11:05:15 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Might be too late, but Disney is value-added since introduction of Disney+ streaming service last week. There's probably some upward movement left. They're also doing a major addition to both parks that should open (I think) this spring, Star Wars themed. They expect a major influx of park fans because it's the biggest add in more than a decade. The MCU has also proved very lucrative, as have the live-action reboots of Disney classic animations.

Edit: oops, I see you already have DIS in that list a couple pages back. Get more anyway, and hope you had a nice bump the last few months.



As the person who gave me Costco, which has doubled since your prognostication, I highly value your thoughts! I'm trying not to increase my percentage holdings in any one company other than by its own increase in value. I'm trying to continue my messy diversification. I still have enough cash for one more equity purchase. Still seeking advice!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
December 4th, 2019 at 7:11:46 AM permalink
Ended up buying BTI at $38.8. I don't understand why it is trading that low. At 38.8 it is paying 7% dividend, and has a pretty low PE ratio of around 11. Its a big company with a long history. Occasionally when I make an analysis I am missing something and it comes back to bite me! Time will tell.

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