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100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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October 3rd, 2019 at 7:11:27 AM permalink
dow dropped 450 points yesterday and is dropping 300 points today.
will i finally be able to see a 10%+ profit and finally switch my bonds back to stocks after 2 years...?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Paradigm
Paradigm
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October 3rd, 2019 at 10:40:31 AM permalink
You have been in bonds since October of 2017?
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 3rd, 2019 at 10:08:49 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

You have been in bonds since October of 2017?


yes.
but thx to the fed rate cuts, my bonds are actually out doing the total market fund i switched out of 2 yrs ago by a couple of %.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 4th, 2019 at 5:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

yes.
but thx to the fed rate cuts, my bonds are actually out doing the total market fund i switched out of 2 yrs ago by a couple of %.



You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower......... So bonds, once bought, will either stay flat or go down in value..... I own bonds and treat them as non tradable assets. If I buy a bond that pays 3% I keep it until maturity. No matter what happens I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term. I'm increasing my bond %. Just in case ......
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 4th, 2019 at 9:52:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower.........

I read that the odds of another rate cut before end of year has just increased.

So I guess I'm not swapping bonds to stocks till that time
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Paradigm
Paradigm
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October 4th, 2019 at 4:26:37 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower......... So bonds, once bought, will either stay flat or go down in value..... I own bonds and treat them as non tradable assets. If I buy a bond that pays 3% I keep it until maturity. No matter what happens I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term. I'm increasing my bond %. Just in case ......


Have you looked at higher yielding dividend equity or REIT positions as a substitute for the low interest rate bonds? I like the following in that space:

VZ paying 4%+
MGP paying 6%+
EPD paying 6%+
OKE paying almost 5%

There are a lot of these opportunities out there with companies that over the long term will likely grow in value while you're getting paid. Of course the GE's & Ford's of the world are out there as well, so you have to be selective (you should take a look at Ford since you have had it...those dividends have been hefty and will have significantly reduced that loss).

There is no way I would be in bonds today with all the high yielding equity positions out there, just too much downside. The bond market today is the real estate market of 2006/2007...it is "bubblelicious".
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 5th, 2019 at 7:46:33 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Have you looked at higher yielding dividend equity or REIT positions as a substitute for the low interest rate bonds? I like the following in that space:

VZ paying 4%+
MGP paying 6%+
EPD paying 6%+
OKE paying almost 5%

There are a lot of these opportunities out there with companies that over the long term will likely grow in value while you're getting paid. Of course the GE's & Ford's of the world are out there as well, so you have to be selective (you should take a look at Ford since you have had it...those dividends have been hefty and will have significantly reduced that loss).

There is no way I would be in bonds today with all the high yielding equity positions out there, just too much downside. The bond market today is the real estate market of 2006/2007...it is "bubblelicious".



I do have many REIT positions. I have 5 separate ones with a guy I jokingly call Madoff. I'm "guaranteed" 5% on the lowest, and 8% on the highest. And they usually liquidate after 3-5 years, returning another 10-20% For an average annual of 10+%. The reason I use this guy is that a friend has been using him for 15 years and has never had one of these deals fall through. It seems too good to be true, but I've put around 2% of my assets with him.
I also own a bunch of big publicly traded REITS. like O and NNN. I've owned O for over a decade. Just keeps going up and keeps increasing dividend.
I may have mentioned this earlier, but I'm also buying preferred stocks. See PFF and PGF.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 5th, 2019 at 7:59:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term.


Are you able to buy the bonds at face value? What sort of bonds? Have you actually yet held some to redemption?
Not expressing an opinion: Just curious.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
October 5th, 2019 at 8:10:26 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Are you able to buy the bonds at face value? What sort of bonds? Have you actually yet held some to redemption?
Not expressing an opinion: Just curious.



If its an initial offering, then yes, you buy it at face value, which is always $1000. So I'll buy "20" of an issue for exactly $20,000. I've held many to redemption. They just pay exactly $1000 per bond. I diversify in bonds just like stocks. I own some from ATT @T, IBM, Wells Fargo, Harvard, NY City, Sumitomo, etc.....

If you buy a bond on the secondary market there is a price listed. If a bond is paying, say, 6% for the next 6 years, you may have to pay $1200 for a bond which on redemption will pay you only $1000. If it is paying 1%, you may only have to pay $900.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 8th, 2019 at 6:32:13 PM permalink
Jim Cramer says chart analysts calls the top for the S&P 500:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/cramer-analyst-calls-a-top-in-the-sp-500-cruising-for-a-bruising.html

stocks will fall 10% soon, according to the expert.

this would be great for me.
while i wait for the fed to drop rates, the market falls.
after rates drop, my bonds will be worth more and stocks worth less.
sell bonds and go back into stocks.

sell high, buy low...
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Oct 8, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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