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nickolay411
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August 14th, 2015 at 9:41:12 PM permalink
How in the holy hell is BYD at 17.55 as of today... Thoughts?

Didn't they try to build echelon and went billions in debt?

Getting up the courage to short this stock.
teddys
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August 15th, 2015 at 6:25:45 AM permalink
Quote: nickolay411

How in the holy hell is BYD at 17.55 as of today... Thoughts?

Didn't they try to build echelon and went billions in debt?

Getting up the courage to short this stock.

Boyd has always been one of the better casino stocks.

They have solid management and fundamentals and don't overleverage themselves out of existence like other casino conglomerates (ahem).

That said, I wish I had bought BYD last October instead of energy producers. Doubled since then.

I have no idea if they are overvalued or not. Did you check their balance sheet and cashflows? How is their debt?

Don't forget to take into account that they own 50% of the Borgata, which is crushing it in Atlantic City. Grabbing market share like crazy.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
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August 15th, 2015 at 11:08:34 AM permalink
Frustrating period now where your assets aren't doing well, but a satisfactory buying opportunity won't open up either.

I did make some modest-sized purchases during the latest trough.

If we go back down I am looking at IBB etf; biotechs are staying down currently. Lately biotechs have been hard to catch at a good price, but it might mean a wait before improvement too.

btw we don't seem to be hearing from SOOPOO or that other guy either during this swoon
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TwoFeathersATL
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August 23rd, 2015 at 9:28:59 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Frustrating period now where your assets aren't doing well, but a satisfactory buying opportunity won't open up either.

I did make some modest-sized purchases during the latest trough.

If we go back down I am looking at IBB etf; biotechs are staying down currently. Lately biotechs have been hard to catch at a good price, but it might mean a wait before improvement too.

btw we don't seem to be hearing from SOOPOO or that other guy either during this swoon



If you are / were looking for buying opportunities, well this next week might be interesting.
Does anyone really believe that P&G and Apple and Wal-Mart are worth just 80% of what they were just a few days ago? All solid companies ( well Apple is always all over the place ;-). Long term, did their value really just change by 20%?
I am moving some money out of cash, and into equity holdings, God help me, please.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
odiousgambit
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August 24th, 2015 at 2:18:42 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

If you are / were looking for buying opportunities, well this next week might be interesting.
Does anyone really believe that P&G and Apple and Wal-Mart are worth just 80% of what they were just a few days ago? All solid companies ( well Apple is always all over the place ;-). Long term, did their value really just change by 20%?
I am moving some money out of cash, and into equity holdings, God help me, please.



Interesting indeed. Woke me up early today I think.

Futures indicate the Dow will drop some 300 400 points again to start the day [updated]. "They" can be wrong, but you can expect a good sized drop. I'll be buying, chanting the mantra "dollar cost averaging works" since each drop makes the last buy look bad. And then there can be the next drop too. It appears the market cannot find a bottom yet.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DeMango
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August 24th, 2015 at 4:59:35 AM permalink
Well China tanked 8.5% today, so it will be another great day of not being in the stock market!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
TwoFeathersATL
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August 24th, 2015 at 6:36:34 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Well China tanked 8.5% today, so it will be another great day of not being in the stock market!


The short sellers are driving the market today, and serious big money is being made.
Don't wait too long to buy, it's gonna get a little more ridiculous before things settle out.
But it may not be very long. Just my opinion.
Of course the world may be going to hell in a handbasket,,, that's possible too....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
odiousgambit
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August 24th, 2015 at 6:43:14 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

The short sellers are driving the market today, and serious big money is being made.
Don't wait too long to buy, it's gonna get a little more ridiculous before things settle out.
But it may not be very long. Just my opinion.
Of course the world may be going to hell in a handbasket,,, that's possible too....



anything is possible, but why isn't gold at least 1200/oz??

Dow was down at least 975 points at one point ... wonder where that fits historically ?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ibeatyouraces
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August 24th, 2015 at 8:03:31 AM permalink
Variance sucks.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
TwoFeathersATL
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August 24th, 2015 at 8:13:00 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

anything is possible, but why isn't gold at least 1200/oz??

Dow was down at least 975 points at one point ... wonder where that fits historically ?


I think the short sellers took their 5% profit, bought back in, called it a day, and went to the beach.
On 1 mil that's 50,000, on 10 mil - that enters scary territory...
I'm jealous......
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
teddys
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August 24th, 2015 at 8:52:54 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Variance sucks.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
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August 24th, 2015 at 9:50:13 AM permalink
I couldn't get into my brokerage accounts this morning.

I would have been too chicken to make a dramatic buy, but I was fully intending to buy some sort of something when it was down around 1000 points.

doesn't mean we won't be back down to the same point or lower soon enough, but the market is getting close to back to even now

PS: yes, short sellers were out in force I imagine ... so were some panicked investors I think
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SanchoPanza
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August 24th, 2015 at 10:27:42 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

why isn't gold at least 1200/oz??

Fundamentally, gold is one of many commodities.
MaxPen
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August 24th, 2015 at 5:54:41 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I couldn't get into my brokerage accounts this morning.

I would have been too chicken to make a dramatic buy, but I was fully intending to buy some sort of something when it was down around 1000 points.

doesn't mean we won't be back down to the same point or lower soon enough, but the market is getting close to back to even now

PS: yes, short sellers were out in force I imagine ... so were some panicked investors I think




Gotta love that. You think you're not participating in a gaffed game, why?

Shemitah this September.

Metals would not be as low as they are if buyers would take possession.
odiousgambit
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August 24th, 2015 at 6:15:07 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Gotta love that. You think you're not participating in a gaffed game, why?

Shemitah this September.

Metals would not be as low as they are if buyers would take possession.



Oh, it's gaffed. One tries to find the least gaffed version.

Shemitah puzzled me a bit, but after searching came upon this? transforming the financial realm?

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MaxPen
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August 24th, 2015 at 7:21:56 PM permalink
2015 is a Jubilee Year in the Shemitah cycle.
1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-Sept. 13, 2015 -?????????????????????

Needless to say I am leary. We have to many ominous indicators.

Baltic Dry Index- Moving major raw materials is cheap as hell right now? Why?

Many are confused about the metals disconnect. I think you even asked why stocks and metals going down in tandem. My contention is that the USD is no longer the denominated indicator to follow. Look to the CNY and forecasting metals makes sense again. Right now China's stock market is leading the meltdown. Metals are taking a beating in the Yuan due to selling pressures to cover margin calls. Pull up a 5 year CNY Silver chart and look at the trend reversal that is about to occur or Gold.

Everyone talks about dollar cost averaging. Well, that's what all the boomers did on the way in when Wall Street sold them the 401K, IRA, etc. Those people are cashing and want their money. The fees stole the corporate growth rates and even today with this modest correction we're expected to buy earings 15-20 years out with yields that are half the rate of inflation? The baby boomers kids can't and won't pick up the slack. Robbery has been perfected to ensure that. The baby boomers built this mess and they will have their perception shattered. JMO
Actuarial
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August 24th, 2015 at 7:56:13 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

2015 is a Jubilee Year in the Shemitah cycle.
1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-Sept. 13, 2015 -?????????????????????

Needless to say I am leary. We have to many ominous indicators.

Baltic Dry Index- Moving major raw materials is cheap as hell right now? Why?

Many are confused about the metals disconnect. I think you even asked why stocks and metals going down in tandem. My contention is that the USD is no longer the denominated indicator to follow. Look to the CNY and forecasting metals makes sense again. Right now China's stock market is leading the meltdown. Metals are taking a beating in the Yuan due to selling pressures to cover margin calls. Pull up a 5 year CNY Silver chart and look at the trend reversal that is about to occur or Gold.

Everyone talks about dollar cost averaging. Well, that's what all the boomers did on the way in when Wall Street sold them the 401K, IRA, etc. Those people are cashing and want their money. The fees stole the corporate growth rates and even today with this modest correction we're expected to buy earings 15-20 years out with yields that are half the rate of inflation? The baby boomers kids can't and won't pick up the slack. Robbery has been perfected to ensure that. The baby boomers built this mess and they will have their perception shattered. JMO



Sounds like you got it figured out. Abortion = stock market crash.
MaxPen
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August 24th, 2015 at 8:20:03 PM permalink
Well, one thing I know is the people in control "of money" all seem to predominantly be of the same faith. What will be sold as the excuse? I have no idea, but there is no denying the likelihood of the circumstance based on the past.


In January of 2000 the DOW stock market closed at close to 12000. Today it closed at less than 16000, over 15 years later. The purchasing power of a dollar is 72% of what it was in 2000.

100K in 2000 has 72K purchasing power 2014, CPI calculators (Government numbers and we all know how truthful they are) will confirm. People have been reamed and never felt it, they were greased up so slickly.

If you are going to reset and control the assets on the other end, how would you do it?

How much more money is in circulation today than 2000? Hedge Funds and the HFT's have stole it all (retail were locked out today). What are and have the "honest" Hedge Funds been doing?

People are sold they are on the road to recovery while being led down the path of self destruction.
petroglyph
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August 24th, 2015 at 10:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Gotta love that. You think you're not participating in a gaffed game, why?

Shemitah this September.

Metals would not be as low as they are if buyers would take possession.

Max nails it, he who's got the phz or a chair when the music stops, wins.

The comex by law now doesn't have to settle in metal, it can settle in paper for metal claims.

And they ignored Ron Paul when he speaks of an audit.
coilman
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November 11th, 2015 at 9:31:17 PM permalink
My old company releases third quarter results today AFTER THE BELL. Has conference call Friday morning

TRICAN WELL SERVICES TCW.T OR TWZ.F

89cents on Toronto exchange Wed


They cut 2000 workers in North America.... and I have heard the cut some pretty important people that one would think would be last to go. head of service line I worked got cut.

Now even if everybody left was busy the third quarter one must figure in DISCOUNTS on work. Basically the oil well company isnt going to be paying for services like they were last year.....oversupply of frac crews, coil crews and so on mean they want discounts, deep discounts as oil stays around $45 a bbl

So was the quarter great and they made enough to pay the bills ( they said months ago they expected to default on the loans) or did they lose more money???

22% of drilling rigs are working in Canada right now..... half of what was working in Jan Feb of this year..... been pretty steady at that rate as the price of oil has stayed way down

Now what happens next ? Will they be taken over? Remember everybody already has excess equipment parked on fences.....Trican has 30% or more parked.... so if they want to sell some of it off well the prices are very depressed right now....and would somebody buy them out taking on even more equipment while they have stuff parked in every yard?

These are the oil wells not Fort McMurray oil sands which is also hurting bad .... talked with one of my neighbours the other day he works up there the past 7 yrs working 23 on 4 days off....before the crash that was now working 2 weeks on 2 weeks off for the near future until they decide if they are going to do some real deep cutting....numbers of jobs floating around he said lost was 20,000

Bad time to be a company that has lots of debt

So the crap shot today is does the stock tank on expected bad news? or do they present an amazing revenue change in a depressed market?

Not sure but would likley be on the short selling side




http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/trican-well-service-ltd-announces-third-quarter-2015-conference-call-tsx-tcw-2066424.htm
Pinit2winit
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November 11th, 2015 at 10:35:50 PM permalink
So above is stating to wait before reinvesting in silver? I buy an oz here or there but pulled out of the stocks for silver when it started a decline from 45$/oz. Currently not invested in metals aside of physical oz's in the safe.
odiousgambit
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November 12th, 2015 at 3:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: coilman

My old company releases third quarter results today AFTER THE BELL.



If I'm looking at the right thing it's down almost 87% year-to-date, so I think most of the bad news is already priced in. Hope you didn't participate in a stock program and keep the stocks.

Short sellers will still prevail I think for now. If anyone wants to be a contrarian the ETF IEZ is interesting. I am too much in the energy hellhole already to speculate any further.

Quote: Pinit2winit

So above is stating to wait before reinvesting in silver? I buy an oz here or there but pulled out of the stocks for silver when it started a decline from 45$/oz. Currently not invested in metals aside of physical oz's in the safe.



Just bought a modest amount of gold again. Will buy more if it keeps going down and sell it all if it recovers. GLD etf this time; yeah, I know the drawbacks but it is in an IRA account that will get taxed 100% anyway.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
coilman
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November 12th, 2015 at 4:39:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If I'm looking at the right thing it's down almost 87% year-to-date, so I think most of the bad news is already priced in. Hope you didn't participate in a stock program and keep the stocks.



Yes they had a good stock plan for workers.... I got out in the $4 range taking a bath....I know many others that held on long after that including my supervisor. They also has a retirement saving plan RRSP which you could invest into the company stock which many did I bet ..... double shotgun blast

Driving to location 12 hrs away out of the blue he asks "Hey whats are stock at now a days $8-9 ?"
My reply of "try about $4.50 " almost had him driving off the road. These guys made money to pay for houses off the stock if they were around from the early days of the company like he was. He said something like I guess I have to hold on to it now and wait for the rebound.

AT LEAST the company after cutting the LUCKY ONES that still have a job salaries 20% canceled the stock plan...I remember him being pissed about that.... stock was in the $4-5 range at the time.... don;t think he would be so upset about it now....saved pouring more good money onto the fire
SOOPOO
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July 12th, 2016 at 10:17:54 AM permalink
Not that anyone cares, but the portfolio finally is up 10% from its starting value. Best 3 are MO, COST, and FB
Bottom 3 are GTAT (bankrupt), NTEK, and CBIS. This is by %. Fortunately I put 5 times as much into the top 3 compared to the bottom 3. I think I would have done quite a bit better with just DIA or SPY, but I am comfortable with the results so far.
odiousgambit
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July 12th, 2016 at 12:00:22 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

just DIA or SPY



not as much fun though!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Paradigm
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July 12th, 2016 at 2:02:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not that anyone cares, but the portfolio finally is up 10% from its starting value. Best 3 are MO, COST, and FB
Bottom 3 are GTAT (bankrupt), NTEK, and CBIS. This is by %. Fortunately I put 5 times as much into the top 3 compared to the bottom 3. I think I would have done quite a bit better with just DIA or SPY, but I am comfortable with the results so far.


I don't think you can compare DIA or SPY to the total portfolio performance. It would be fair to compare the SPY return to a basket of your large cap US based companies and I'll bet you find that you did considerably better in the stocks in that category of asset class than the S&P's 15.7% + dividend return that I estimate SPY did since the 3/17/14 start date.

What does your rate of return look like on the considering only this portion of your portfolio: FB, AR, CELG, MA, DIS, CSCO, MO, ILMN, TD, BMO, COST, BRK.B, AAPL & TSLA?

In scanning the list, these are the only companies I see that make fair comparisons to the SPY in terms of size and quality of equity. My guess is you beat the SPY over that time frame as you had some real big cap winners in the portfolio when the overall rate of return for the portfolio got dragged down by the dregs of small to mid cap players that got wiped out GTAT & NTEK come to mind immediately.

And I didn't cherry pick these issues, but did require a beginning market cap in excess of 15B...I think AR is going to be your biggest loser, but package with the gain in FB, I think you still made 13%+ on those two stocks on a combined basis. MO crushed it as did COST. My own pick CELG picked up 35% in gains and didn't even make the top 3 so you had some real big winners from the Forum picks when those picks represented quality companies and not "betting it all on black" type companies!
teddys
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July 12th, 2016 at 2:05:30 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

I think AR is going to be your biggest loser

Huge loser. I feel bad about that. (Worse since I have large exposure). Thankfully, the natural gas market is starting to rebound, but AR will almost certainly never recover to its previous levels.

I am not going into a career in stock picking.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Paradigm
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July 12th, 2016 at 2:14:04 PM permalink
I rode ETP (nat gas pipeline MLP) down from $65 to $19 and now back to $38...nice to be collecting $4+/per year/per share on distributions along the way and luckily I didn't buy it at the $65 high. No one was looking for energy to get as creamed as it did...I think the "Paradigm" has shifted in the energy space and will continue to shift to less reliance on fossil fuels over our lifetimes. That being said, I think Nat Gas has the best chance of being used for the longest period of time (and "clean" coal the quickest one out the door)...for me, I like the transport side of Nat Gas, but it hasn't been a picnic either :-).
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2017 at 4:55:25 PM permalink
It's almost 3 years since I started this account. Up 20% from inception, which I would guess trails the overall market over the same time period. I have used the dividends to buy bonds and cds, so it is now around 10% fixed income.
lilredrooster
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February 13th, 2017 at 5:18:47 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It's almost 3 years since I started this account. Up 20% from inception, which I would guess trails the overall market over the same time period. I have used the dividends to buy bonds and cds, so it is now around 10% fixed income.



You are correct, you have trailed the overall market during this time period by about 11%. And you are obviously an experienced, sophisticated investor. Which perfectly illustrates the difficulty any individual will have in matching an investor who simply buys an index fund and does nothing. But this fact is not any kind of news. Investors continue to buy individual stocks perhaps because it's a fun game or challenge or perhaps because they're hoping to realize a big score. Whatever the reason, that is certainly their right to do so. In your case in this situation your experience was pretty good even though you did not match the indexes. In a bear market a great many investors who have this strategy will get creamed and those who bought index funds will have lost, but they won't be deep under the water.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Paradigm
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February 13th, 2017 at 6:37:04 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

What does your rate of return look like on the considering only this portion of your portfolio: FB, AR, CELG, MA, DIS, CSCO, MO, ILMN, TD, BMO, COST, BRK.B, AAPL & TSLA? In scanning the list, these are the only companies I see that make fair comparisons to the SPY in terms of size and quality of equity.


What did these large cap companies do over that 3 year period? I bet you beat the SPY with these comparables, particularly when you factor in the divvy's on those that pay. I would calc it, but much easier since you have the cost basis and dividend 1099's to sum it up for you.

I took a quick peek, I think you crushed the S&P500 Index that I estimate was up about 33% including divvys (need to check on actual figure) over the last three years. The indexes can be beat and there are managers and individuals that do it consistently. But....it takes a lot of effort, so for most, "set it and forget it" in index funds is a prudent way to go.
lilredrooster
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February 14th, 2017 at 1:56:38 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

The indexes can be beat and there are managers and individuals that do it consistently. But....it takes a lot of effort, so for most, "set it and forget it" in index funds is a prudent way to go.



Correct, but also, generally, those who do beat the market do a great deal of trading which will in a bull market such as this will generate high capital gains obligations. The "set it and forget it" index fund customer almost always is responsible for zero or almost zero yearly capital gains. Over significant time periods this amounts to a great difference.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 14, 2017
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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December 13th, 2017 at 2:39:10 PM permalink
There has been a lot of talk about whether Trump has made a difference, whether it is just a continuation of Obama, whether it has zippo to do with who is President. My WoV portfolio is up around 38% since inception, which probably trails the overall market. I have been buying bonds with the dividends and cash that comes now and then when a company is sold for cash. So it would make sense in this bullish market I'd be trailing a little. I think it is now 85% equities, 15% bonds. NTEK didn't help!
beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2017 at 3:05:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There has been a lot of talk about whether Trump has made a difference, whether it is just a continuation of Obama, whether it has zippo to do with who is President. My WoV portfolio is up around 38% since inception, which probably trails the overall market. I have been buying bonds with the dividends and cash that comes now and then when a company is sold for cash. So it would make sense in this bullish market I'd be trailing a little. I think it is now 85% equities, 15% bonds. NTEK didn't help!



I'm up 31% since converting my TSP (govt 401k) to an IRA Jan 2016. So half Obama half Trump, assuming either one deserves credit. One holding just matured today and got sold, so I have a nice chunk of cash in the acct ready to reinvest once the market correction happens Jan-Feb.

You might consider following my guy's advice and sell into super-safe dull stuff or just hold cash if you dont have to take gains before the end of the year. Then rebuy the good stuff in the spring. Big selloff/profit-taking coming.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Boz
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December 13th, 2017 at 3:17:10 PM permalink
While we are treading into unknown territory with these highs and it’s easy to see a correction coming, I’m not so sure. Unlike the last crash, the fundamentals are good, corporate profits are high and the approval of the tax bill will help. There are no underlying problems like the mortgage crisis of 08 and if anything more people are getting into the market. All of this should be good for the long term but of course any major world or national event could change that.

My advise for what is worth is to be aggressive based on your age and long term financial goals. And never be invested in anything that causes you to lose sleep.

And damn I miss steelco’s picks and analysis of the markets.
beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2017 at 3:23:54 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

While we are treading into unknown territory with these highs and it’s easy to see a correction coming, I’m not so sure. Unlike the last crash, the fundamentals are good, corporate profits are high and the approval of the tax bill will help. There are no underlying problems like the mortgage crisis of 08 and if anything more people are getting into the market. All of this should be good for the long term but of course any major world or national event could change that.

My advise for what is worth is to be aggressive based on your age and long term financial goals. And never be invested in anything that causes you to lose sleep.

And damn I miss steelco’s picks and analysis of the markets.



Me too re: steeldco.

I don't think it's a crash. It's people waiting to take profits in the new tax year, combined with interest rates up .25% today and expecting 3 raises in 2018. That will all take the market down some if it's correct. But it should recover by the end of 2018, so if you're not trying to time the market, probably won't hurt much.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
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December 13th, 2017 at 3:41:04 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

once the market correction happens Jan-Feb.



I am not able to predict an exact time for a market correction. Those who have been saying 'any day now' have been saying so for years. They are the ones who have missed the silly gains of late. If 'super safe dull stuff' means any type of stock, it is not safe during a market correction. I have been slowly transitioning to bonds, now at around 15%. A friend suggested I buy a few bitcoins. I just will never be able to pull that trigger.
beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2017 at 3:48:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am not able to predict an exact time for a market correction. Those who have been saying 'any day now' have been saying so for years. They are the ones who have missed the silly gains of late. If 'super safe dull stuff' means any type of stock, it is not safe during a market correction. I have been slowly transitioning to bonds, now at around 15%. A friend suggested I buy a few bitcoins. I just will never be able to pull that trigger.



My advice, like all free advice, is worth what you paid for it, right? Except I pay this guy, and he manages more than .5B in assets, so thought I'd pass it along since we're friends.

I freely admit I know nothing myself about stocks, etc.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
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BozDRichRisingDough
December 13th, 2017 at 3:58:33 PM permalink
I'm just waiting for the orange crop report to come in after the New Year so I can really stick it to those Duke brothers.
Boz
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December 13th, 2017 at 4:13:47 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I'm just waiting for the orange crop report to come in after the New Year so I can really stick it to those Duke brothers.



Don’t forget Al Franken was one of the Ape handlers on the train in that movie.
100xOdds
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December 13th, 2017 at 6:10:33 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

My advice, like all free advice, is worth what you paid for it, right? Except I pay this guy, and he manages more than .5B in assets, so thought I'd pass it along since we're friends.

I freely admit I know nothing myself about stocks, etc.

so your advisor thinks there will be a sell off starting Jan 2 to take profits?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
beachbumbabs
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December 13th, 2017 at 9:14:37 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so your advisor thinks there will be a sell off starting Jan 2 to take profits?



Yes. About 2 months worth, give or take. Then a slow recovery over the next 8 months to at or a little above now. We're holding a large chunk of my IRA in cash, waiting to come in after the drop on something juicy.

It was in a high-risk fund that did well and matured, so a forced sale today, but at the top of my holding. So I'm pleased.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
odiousgambit
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December 14th, 2017 at 5:48:15 AM permalink
I'll eat my hat if there isn't a chance to buy back in at lower prices if you want to sell some now.

In order to avoid "market timing" traps, you can just rebalance and get the blessings of whatever conservative advice you sometimes listen to. If you were in balance a few months ago, you aren't now.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
OnceDear
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December 14th, 2017 at 9:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Variance sucks.

Embrace the variance :o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2017 at 11:12:03 AM permalink
I am now at the point where variance is my enemy! I have a different portfolio where variance has been my best friend! I have one in stock, BAP, that I was able to buy at six dollars a share. It is now trading at over 200 a share. I had no knowledge about the stock at all, but as a child I used to call my sister a bap!

I am so diversified, equity-wise, that if the market is up, I'm up, and if it is down, I'm down.
beachbumbabs
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December 14th, 2017 at 11:43:59 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am now at the point where variance is my enemy! I have a different portfolio where variance has been my best friend! I have one in stock, BAP, that I was able to buy at six dollars a share. It is now trading at over 200 a share. I had no knowledge about the stock at all, but as a child I used to call my sister a bap!

I am so diversified, equity-wise, that if the market is up, I'm up, and if it is down, I'm down.



That's hysterical. Thank your sister someday.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2017 at 12:16:52 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

That's hysterical. Thank your sister someday.



We have been talking about it for years! And I owe a thanks to you for COST!
beachbumbabs
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December 14th, 2017 at 12:19:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

We have been talking about it for years! And I owe a thanks to you for COST!



My pleasure. They do it right. Solid investment.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
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December 16th, 2017 at 8:54:21 AM permalink
Okay, stock geniuses:

I have some money invested in FFNOX index fund as well as FFTHX target date fund (this is my IRA). Are these redundant? Should I dump one over the other? Or just keep them both?

Also, I have a chunk invested in a NASDAQ index fund. I'm not sure if I should be so tech heavy, but the NASDAQ has been killing it the last couple of years. I'm planning somewhat long term, here, so is it better to just dump that and go with a standard S&P index fund? Or dump it into one of the above FFNOX/FFTHX since those are already sort of total market?

I also want to be a little more bond-heavy since I'm a slightly more conservative investor. I already have a bond fund; would it be totally stupid to completely dump the NASDAQ index into my bond fund as long as I have those other total market funds pumped up enough so my equity balance is covered?
SOOPOO
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December 16th, 2017 at 9:38:37 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Okay, stock geniuses:

I have some money invested in FFNOX index fund as well as FFTHX target date fund (this is my IRA). Are these redundant? Should I dump one over the other? Or just keep them both?

Also, I have a chunk invested in a NASDAQ index fund. I'm not sure if I should be so tech heavy, but the NASDAQ has been killing it the last couple of years. I'm planning somewhat long term, here, so is it better to just dump that and go with a standard S&P index fund? Or dump it into one of the above FFNOX/FFTHX since those are already sort of total market?

I also want to be a little more bond-heavy since I'm a slightly more conservative investor. I already have a bond fund; would it be totally stupid to completely dump the NASDAQ index into my bond fund as long as I have those other total market funds pumped up enough so my equity balance is covered?



I would dump FFTHX as it has a .75% expense ratio. I don't need to know anything else. As for answering any of your other questions, a real financial analyst would need you to answer a bunch of questions first....

How old are you? How much do you make? How much do you have in savings? How much do you have in debt? Do you have any dependents? Do you have life and or disability insurance? Are you planning for any near or long term expenses (marrying, birth of child, buying a house, etc.)? Tax consequences for rebalancing or selling what you have now? Risk tolerance? These are just the tip of the iceberg....
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