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steeldco
steeldco
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March 10th, 2014 at 3:25:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I don't agree with him, but it is clearly not madness. He is just saying right now he believes the market is overvalued, and it will correct to a lower level, and he will reinvest into stocks then. I am not smart enough to 'time' the market, so I don't try. Since I'm allocating 1% or so to each selection, keeping 1% in cash has no real meaning, as I probably will have around that all the time in cash as dividends come in until I buy something else.



SOOPOO, you're going to hold 100 different issues?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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March 10th, 2014 at 3:31:39 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

SOOPOO, you're going to hold 100 different issues?



Unlikely. It seems like I will have around 20 suggestions. I will probably do around 1% each. I already have around 10% in the Ultra mutual fund which I will probably keep. The other 70% will be split amongst some ETFs to make it pretty diversified, so probably 7 or so ETFs.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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March 10th, 2014 at 3:34:37 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am not smart enough to 'time' the market, so I don't try.


Neither am I, and neither is your brother in law.

I am making a bold statement there, but I am a strong believer in efficient markets and the random walk. Anyone trying to "time the market" or pick individual winning stocks is playing a losing game. Just like gambling, you can win big or you can lose big, but if you win big it's luck.

Does your bro-in-law do well?
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
steeldco
steeldco
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March 10th, 2014 at 3:42:35 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

but if you win big it's luck.



If SOOPOO'S brother-in-law turns out to have made the right call.....and if he's done well in the past, are you still going to call it "luck"?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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March 10th, 2014 at 3:47:39 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Neither am I, and neither is your brother in law.

I am making a bold statement there, but I am a strong believer in efficient markets and the random walk. Anyone trying to "time the market" or pick individual winning stocks is playing a losing game. Just like gambling, you can win big or you can lose big, but if you win big it's luck.

Does your bro-in-law do well?



LOL! He lives in a bigger house than I do! But he has worked in different capacities on Wall Street his whole life. I 'think' he does well, but I haven't asked him for advice for 20 years. When I first had access to enough money to invest, he was following a stock called Sunshine Mining. Back then, stocks traded in fractions, as opposed to cents. So he told me that Sunshine traded at between 13/16 and 15/16, and would basically go up and down, day after day. He would buy at 13, sell at 15, making 15% pretty frequently. I figured I would try it! I waited.... got in at 13/16. A few days later, after some bad news, it was trading at 7/16! Even though it was a small amount of money, I felt like an idiot. If its too good to be true.... I held it, it slowly went up, then reached 1! I sold, happily taking my 20% profit, hating the 'ride'. A year or two later it was at 3..... That was the last time I bought a stock with the intention of selling it. But he has looked for similar opportunities, taking advantage of the 'vibrations'.
SFB
SFB
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March 10th, 2014 at 4:28:10 PM permalink
SooPoo:

If you are going to take Tesla for a ride, look into CMG. Chipolte. I bought at $30 and sold at $400, and its at $550+ now...

Still a buy and hold stock however.

Amazon. When Bezos decides to raise prices the stock will go crazy.

How long do you have to wait?

I would recommend selling the ETFs. Lower cost of getting in then mutual funds, but after awhile, you have the ETF's fees, then TDAmeritrade's account costs, all sucking a little more from your account.

Once you are past 25-30 stocks, as long as you stay away from over weighting too much in any one sector, you will be pretty well diversified.

The only thing to do, is the same things that every broker and advisor says that they are doing but they do not do FOR you. Clear out losing positions every year, and buy better companies.

"Buy and hold" only mean you do that for stocks that are doing well.

And since this is in a tax advantaged account, you can rebalance without tax cost...

SFB
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:02:47 AM permalink
I'll add CMG. Does anyone know why GLXZ is up 38% today? Not that I'm complaining....
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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March 15th, 2014 at 1:39:27 PM permalink
Quote: SFB

I would recommend selling the ETFs. Lower cost of getting in then mutual funds, but after awhile, you have the ETF's fees, then TDAmeritrade's account costs, all sucking a little more from your account.


What? Any ETF's fees are disclosed via the expense ratio, which you can compare right along side the mutual funds as well. In addition, most brokerage accounts allow you to trade in their "branded" asset-class ETFs with no trading fees.

Quote:

Once you are past 25-30 stocks, as long as you stay away from over weighting too much in any one sector, you will be pretty well diversified.

The only thing to do, is the same things that every broker and advisor says that they are doing but they do not do FOR you. Clear out losing positions every year, and buy better companies.

"Buy and hold" only mean you do that for stocks that are doing well.


WOW, this is some genuinely terrible investing advice. Sounds like a recipe for buying high, selling low, and eating up your return in trading fees.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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March 16th, 2014 at 9:29:50 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

What? Any ETF's fees are disclosed via the expense ratio, which you can compare right along side the mutual funds as well. In addition, most brokerage accounts allow you to trade in their "branded" asset-class ETFs with no trading fees.


WOW, this is some genuinely terrible investing advice. Sounds like a recipe for buying high, selling low, and eating up your return in trading fees.



ETF fees are extremely low when compared to most mutual funds. My TD account has not maintenance fees. I can buy or sell $100,000 worth of an ETF for $9. I am hoping to only be buying, never selling, I plan on leaving that task to my heirs.

I expect to have access to my money either tomorrow or Tuesday. Still time for any WoV member to chime in on an individual stock. I would also like to put a 1% stake in Russia. Any one have a particular stock or ETF for Russia?
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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March 16th, 2014 at 9:37:10 AM permalink
I have only one Russian company that I like and that is YNDX. Can't seem to find another that I would sink funds into.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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