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beachbumbabs
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April 21st, 2019 at 10:51:58 AM permalink
Netflix now a buy as it transitions from streaming service to entertainment platform...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/16/what-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-netflix-in-2007-would-be-worth-now.html
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
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April 22nd, 2019 at 11:53:11 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Netflix now a buy as it transitions from streaming service to entertainment platform...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/16/what-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-netflix-in-2007-would-be-worth-now.html


still waiting for the Trump stock market crash so I can move bonds back to stock funds
:)
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100xOdds
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May 10th, 2019 at 5:39:41 AM permalink
Sigh.. Even with this recent market sell off thanks to Trump bringing up more China tariffs, the total market find is still +8% over my bond fund when I switched over 2 years ago.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AcesAndEights
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May 10th, 2019 at 11:43:00 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Sigh.. Even with this recent market sell off thanks to Trump bringing up more China tariffs, the total market find is still +8% over my bond fund when I switched over 2 years ago.


I would implore you to settle on a percentage of stocks/bonds that matches your risk tolerance and move your money into that configuration. Maybe 60/40 if you are risk averse.

Things could always be different "this time," but over the past 120 years of stock market history, stocks beat bonds for the long term. Just have to ride out the bumps. That's what the bond allocation is for, to smooth the ride a bit and still provide some return.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
billryan
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May 10th, 2019 at 11:56:20 AM permalink
Someone who is surprised stocks are outperforming bonds might want to let a professional handle their money.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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May 10th, 2019 at 3:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Someone who is surprised stocks are outperforming bonds might want to let a professional handle their money.



But most professionals will tell a 30 year old doctor (me 28 years ago) to have x% in stocks, y% in bonds, and z% in cash. Other than small emergency cash fund I kept 100% in stocks until very recently. Outperformed BY FAR all my cohorts who used a "professional" to handle their money. And these professionals charge something approaching 1% of asset value EACH YEAR for the bad advice they were offering me.
AcesAndEights
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May 13th, 2019 at 8:34:27 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

But most professionals will tell a 30 year old doctor (me 28 years ago) to have x% in stocks, y% in bonds, and z% in cash. Other than small emergency cash fund I kept 100% in stocks until very recently. Outperformed BY FAR all my cohorts who used a "professional" to handle their money. And these professionals charge something approaching 1% of asset value EACH YEAR for the bad advice they were offering me.


Kudos to you - advisors who charge a percentage of assets under management are vile thieves. Good work avoiding them. The truth is, it only takes a little bit of education to manage your own money far better than most advisors, since no one will care for your money like YOU. I'm sure there are some good financial advisors out there, but the more ethical business model is to charge a flat fee per consultation. Of course, less money in it that way...

100% stocks is very aggressive at any age - but I hear more and more young folks going that direction on the Mr. Money Moustache forums. It really tests your appetite for risk during events like 2000 and 2008. Can I ask you what your timeframe is for retirement, and what your percentage in bonds is presently? I like to compare numbers like this, feel free to not answer if you please.

I'm 34 and my wife and I are shooting for an early retirement circa 2029 based on high income, frugal living and aggressive savings/investment. (lots of factors in play here, obviously). For the past several years I have carried 10% bonds. This year I inched it up to 11%, and will be adding one percentage point per year if we stay on track - if projections change, I will pause the bond ramp. Not included in this calculation is cash for emergencies, but I don't look at that as a percentage of assets, but rather base it on current spending and keep a few months cushion.

My goal is to implement a "bond tent" - a relative new area of research. The traditional advice is to add more bonds as you get older and nearer retirement, and then KEEP adding bonds as you grow older from there (since you want to preserve your capital in your elder years and provide stable income, as the theory goes). But since stocks always (again, in recorded history) outperform bonds over the long term, your portfolio will basically stop growing in your elder years based on this strategy. If you have enough, that's fine, but personally I'm hoping to not work a day longer than I need to, so getting stock-like performance well into retirement is important.

But, the risk of a big market downturn right before or after you retire and stop contributing can lead to failure (sequence of returns risk). So the bond tent is meant to manage that risk by making your portfolio a little more resistant to these forces right at the most important times - leading up to retirement and right afterward. You increase the bonds leading up to your date, then slowly sell them off first thing in retirement, to return to whatever your desired allocation is long term. So for me, we'll go from 90/10 --> 80/20 --> 90/10 over about 20 years, centered on retirement.

Long winded article on this:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-effect-with-bond-tent-in-retirement-red-zone/
That article was written to a more standard audience with respect to retirement age, so I've adjusted the formulas a bit for early retirement (ending up with more stocks at the end to fuel higher growth up until the day I croak and leave whatever's left to my kids).
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
SOOPOO
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May 13th, 2019 at 8:48:46 AM permalink
My retirement window is...... soon! Highly likely I retire before Labor Day. If I told you my net worth and said I have 20% in bonds now that might be somewhat misleading. I will be getting a 'defined benefit plan' pension from NYS of lets say $60k per year, and eventually Social Security of lets say $30k per year. So lets say my net worth is $5 million. But I would want to count the $90k per year as approximately a $2.5million dollar bond. So I have $1million in real bonds, $2.5million in make believe bond, and $4 million in stocks. (Numbers used as an example, of course)

So an advisor would tell me being only 20% in bonds is bad as I'm about to retire, but I look at it as $3.5million out of $7.5 million, or nearly 50%.
AcesAndEights
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May 13th, 2019 at 8:58:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

My retirement window is...... soon! Highly likely I retire before Labor Day. If I told you my net worth and said I have 20% in bonds now that might be somewhat misleading. I will be getting a 'defined benefit plan' pension from NYS of lets say $60k per year, and eventually Social Security of lets say $30k per year. So lets say my net worth is $5 million. But I would want to count the $90k per year as approximately a $2.5million dollar bond. So I have $1million in real bonds, $2.5million in make believe bond, and $4 million in stocks. (Numbers used as an example, of course)

So an advisor would tell me being only 20% in bonds is bad as I'm about to retire, but I look at it as $3.5million out of $7.5 million, or nearly 50%.


Sounds good to me. Later on I may do a similar calculation with projected future SS payments, but at present I don't even account for them as I'm so young. The program will undoubtedly change...I doubt I will get *nothing*, but probably less than what they are projecting for me now. No pensions or any other defined benefit plans, just my 401(k)s and IRAs.

It's funny as my in-laws said that they expected SS payments would be means-tested by the time they retired. They are now retired, and deferring SS for now, but have lots of retirement assets saved. Basically, they don't need SS, but it's still coming to them. A generation later I'm thinking the same thing...
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
SOOPOO
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May 13th, 2019 at 9:03:40 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Sounds good to me. Later on I may do a similar calculation with projected future SS payments, but at present I don't even account for them as I'm so young. The program will undoubtedly change...I doubt I will get *nothing*, but probably less than what they are projecting for me now.

It's funny as my in-laws said that they expected SS payments would be means-tested by the time they retired. They are now retired, and deferring SS for now, but have lots of retirement assets saved. Basically, they don't need SS, but it's still coming to them. A generation later I'm thinking the same thing...



You have SMART in laws! As soon as all three (House, Senate, President) are all Democrat expect the assault on "The Rich" to be ramped up. So I plan on starting Social Security even at the reduced amount as soon as I'm old enough.
billryan
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May 13th, 2019 at 9:50:35 AM permalink
Might I occasionally outperform my portfolio manager? Possibly, but what is my time worth? Do I want to spend hours researching stocks and keeping up on every and anything that can affect it, now and in the future.
It's easy to look back at the last thirty years of the stock market and think the growth in one's portfolio was superior to what a pro would have done, but who can really say. I know how well I did. What I don't know is what it might have done.
I turned most of my portfolio over to a pro five years ago. I'm happy with the results, and thrilled with the hundreds of hours I have saved.
At sixty, I have better things to do that then work on my portfolio
My stock picking these days in pulling a couple of silver age comics to list for sale.
Choose your own path or follow a pro. Just get money put aside for retirement.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AcesAndEights
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May 13th, 2019 at 10:46:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Might I occasionally outperform my portfolio manager? Possibly, but what is my time worth? Do I want to spend hours researching stocks and keeping up on every and anything that can affect it, now and in the future.
It's easy to look back at the last thirty years of the stock market and think the growth in one's portfolio was superior to what a pro would have done, but who can really say. I know how well I did. What I don't know is what it might have done.
I turned most of my portfolio over to a pro five years ago. I'm happy with the results, and thrilled with the hundreds of hours I have saved.
At sixty, I have better things to do that then work on my portfolio
My stock picking these days in pulling a couple of silver age comics to list for sale.
Choose your own path or follow a pro. Just get money put aside for retirement.


How much does he charge?

My statements are based around an index fund point of view. I don't pick stocks (or pay anyone else to pick them for me). Buy the market, add in bonds to moderate risk, rebalance.

I do believe some very very talented individuals can beat the market picking individual stocks, but I absolutely am not spending my time looking for that person, and paying them. I just stick to index funds.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
unJon
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May 13th, 2019 at 11:21:51 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Might I occasionally outperform my portfolio manager? Possibly, but what is my time worth? Do I want to spend hours researching stocks and keeping up on every and anything that can affect it, now and in the future.
It's easy to look back at the last thirty years of the stock market and think the growth in one's portfolio was superior to what a pro would have done, but who can really say. I know how well I did. What I don't know is what it might have done.
I turned most of my portfolio over to a pro five years ago. I'm happy with the results, and thrilled with the hundreds of hours I have saved.
At sixty, I have better things to do that then work on my portfolio
My stock picking these days in pulling a couple of silver age comics to list for sale.
Choose your own path or follow a pro. Just get money put aside for retirement.

For equity investments just buy a mix of VTI and VXUS (in whatever % you want exposure between US and international), then forget about it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AcesAndEights
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May 13th, 2019 at 1:25:04 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

For equity investments just buy a mix of VTI and VXUS (in whatever % you want exposure between US and international), then forget about it.


This is exactly what I do. 25% international for me.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
odiousgambit
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May 13th, 2019 at 1:46:51 PM permalink
The bit about having your percentage in bond funds equal to your age is way, way too conservative today, people live too long now. The other thing I'm confident about is that you need to have the ability to avoid having to take money out of either type of asset at different times; in other words, you can't be sure it is better to take money of of bonds instead of stocks at a given time in retirement, there are hairy times when you don't want to take money out of either.

Quote: SOOPOO

My retirement window is...... soon! Highly likely I retire before Labor Day. If I told you my net worth and said I have 20% in bonds now that might be somewhat misleading. I will be getting a 'defined benefit plan' pension from NYS of lets say $60k per year, and eventually Social Security of lets say $30k per year. So lets say my net worth is $5 million. But I would want to count the $90k per year as approximately a $2.5million dollar bond. So I have $1million in real bonds, $2.5million in make believe bond, and $4 million in stocks. (Numbers used as an example, of course)

So an advisor would tell me being only 20% in bonds is bad as I'm about to retire, but I look at it as $3.5million out of $7.5 million, or nearly 50%.

I'm sure some find that hard to follow, but I know exactly what you are talking about. Guaranteed income is a type of asset! Yet it never is included in any kind of statement about your net worth. Why? [other than of course SS etc can't be taken out as a lump sum]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AcesAndEights
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May 13th, 2019 at 1:50:58 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The bit about having your percentage in bond funds equal to your age is way, way too conservative today, people live too long now.


Agreed, that doesn't hold water any longer, if it ever did.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
billryan
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May 13th, 2019 at 2:00:13 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

How much does he charge?

My statements are based around an index fund point of view. I don't pick stocks (or pay anyone else to pick them for me). Buy the market, add in bonds to moderate risk, rebalance.

I do believe some very very talented individuals can beat the market picking individual stocks, but I absolutely am not spending my time looking for that person, and paying them. I just stick to index funds.



I hate to say this, but I honestly don't understand the charges. The base fee is 1% a year but the fee was waived the first year, and I got an unexplained $2500 bonus on the second year so that my fees for two years were negligible. I liked the guy I dealt with in NY, not so much his counterparts out here.
At sixty, I should probably stop being as aggressive as I am and be a bit more concerned with protecting the portfolio rather than growing it. I am very diversified, with less than a fifth of my worth in publicly traded stocks. Done pretty well with a few micro-investments since moving here.
I don't miss searching for candlesticks. Day trading just isn't for me.
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billryan
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odiousgambit
May 13th, 2019 at 2:08:22 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The bit about having your percentage in bond funds equal to your age is way, way too conservative today, people live too long now. The other thing I'm confident about is that you need to have the ability to avoid having to take money out of either type of asset at different times; in other words, you can't be sure it is better to take money of of bonds instead of stocks at a given time in retirement, there are hairy times when you don't want to take money out of either.

I'm sure some find that hard to follow, but I know exactly what you are talking about. Guaranteed income is a type of asset! Yet it never is included in any kind of statement about your net worth. Why? [other than of course SS etc can't be taken out as a lump sum]



The big difference is most pensions end at your death, or at best when your surviving spouse dies, while the bond produces income until it matures.You can leave your bond to a loved one. Not so much a pension. Your pension is worth$60,000 a year. A Four million dollar bond is worth $60,000 a year plus four million dollars.
I'd say they are the same for day to day bookkeeping but very different when estate planning.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
odiousgambit
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:03:43 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The big difference is most pensions end at your death, or at best when your surviving spouse dies, while the bond produces income until it matures.You can leave your bond to a loved one. Not so much a pension. Your pension is worth$60,000 a year. A Four million dollar bond is worth $60,000 a year plus four million dollars.
I'd say they are the same for day to day bookkeeping but very different when estate planning.

Agreed.

Set aside whether that is a good return or not on the bonds, let's say it is.

If you took the 60k out as income from the bonds, income you needed, normally you'd start withdrawing the principle too. That money can be all used up if you retire early - though $4 mill would not ever be totally consumed by me, I'd like to think.

I might ponder something, stay tuned.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TigerWu
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May 15th, 2019 at 12:30:19 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Agreed, that doesn't hold water any longer, if it ever did.



The "new" rule of thumb is your age minus 20 for bond holdings. This is supposed to account for people living longer.
unJon
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May 15th, 2019 at 2:06:49 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

The "new" rule of thumb is your age minus 20 for bond holdings. This is supposed to account for people living longer.

Sounds high for young people.
Also make sure any bonds you have are held in your tax advantages accounts like 401k, IRA, Roth to avoid the ordinary income hit.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
100xOdds
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May 31st, 2019 at 3:17:18 PM permalink
dow below 25k again!

I'm now down only -1% since Jan 2018 by converting stocks to Bonds in a gamble that Trump will tank the stock market.
when I'm up +10%, im going to convert Bonds back to the Total Stock fund.

That'll be around Dow 23k?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on May 31, 2019
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Lovecomps
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May 31st, 2019 at 4:29:25 PM permalink
Well, as long as this is a gambling related website, take a look at the misery in Steve Wynn's life.

WYNN, down over 25% in one month. Even if you want to attribute a concern about lower revenue because of the tariff situation that could affect Macau, that doesn't justify such a schalacking on its stock price.
The best things in life are not free.
beachbumbabs
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May 31st, 2019 at 7:28:44 PM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

Well, as long as this is a gambling related website, take a look at the misery in Steve Wynn's life.

WYNN, down over 25% in one month. Even if you want to attribute a concern about lower revenue because of the tariff situation that could affect Macau, that doesn't justify such a schalacking on its stock price.



Wynn was forced to pay, a couple days ago, 35.3Million to the state of Massachusetts over the sexual harassment thing. They were in talks MGM 2 weeks ago about selling the new Encore in Massachusetts to them. Neither of those headlines have been kind to the stock.

Encore is supposed to open June 23, about 3 weeks from now. There's some question whether they will.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MDawg
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May 31st, 2019 at 9:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

dow below 25k again!

I'm now down only -1% since Jan 2018 by converting stocks to Bonds in a gamble that Trump will tank the stock market.
when I'm up +10%, im going to convert Bonds back to the Total Stock fund.

That'll be around Dow 23k?



Good luck with that.

As Warren Buffet has said, "You cannot get rich with a weather vane."


Long term is the way to go, which is the way I've been doing it for a very long time. I buy I don't sell during downturns. I do trade somewhat regularly on top of the long term holdings, but the key holdings are held - increased - never sold. The results speak for themselves.
Last edited by: MDawg on May 31, 2019
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billryan
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May 31st, 2019 at 11:50:27 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

The "new" rule of thumb is your age minus 20 for bond holdings. This is supposed to account for people living longer.




I don't believe a forty year old should have anything in bonds. Your investment window is too long to be conservative. These days, there are so many other alternatives.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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May 31st, 2019 at 11:55:33 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Good luck with that.

As Warren Buffet has said, "You cannot get rich with a weather vane."


Long term is the way to go, which is the way I've been doing it for a very long time. I buy I don't sell during downturns. I do trade somewhat regularly on top of the long term holdings, but the key holdings are held - increased - never sold. The results speak for themselves.



Invest like a RONCO oven. Set it and forget it. Forty years of DRIPS later, I can live nicely off the dividends. 100% of my individual stocks are now Blue Chips, while a couple of funds diversify a bit.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
100xOdds
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June 1st, 2019 at 2:57:31 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Good luck with that.

As Warren Buffet has said, "You cannot get rich with a weather vane."

Long term is the way to go, which is the way I've been doing it for a very long time. I buy I don't sell during downturns. I do trade somewhat regularly on top of the long term holdings, but the key holdings are held - increased - never sold. The results speak for themselves.

well, I made the gamble 2years ago. switched 6figures over.
twice during that time, the Dow dropped big but I would only have been at +5% both times so didn't switch back.
my goal is at least +10%.

lets see if 3rd time's the charm
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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June 1st, 2019 at 2:59:41 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I don't believe a forty year old should have anything in bonds. Your investment window is too long to be conservative. These days, there are so many other alternatives.

what are the alternatives?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Lovecomps
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June 1st, 2019 at 9:41:36 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Wynn was forced to pay, a couple days ago, 35.3Million to the state of Massachusetts over the sexual harassment thing. They were in talks MGM 2 weeks ago about selling the new Encore in Massachusetts to them. Neither of those headlines have been kind to the stock.

Encore is supposed to open June 23, about 3 weeks from now. There's some question whether they will.



The news says that the hotel will open on time in mid/late June despite this stuff about Wynn's personal life. There is still some weakness in Macau, probably related.

The fines were paid out of his personal funds, not the corporation that he founded.

It's buying opportunity if you ask me. Knocking 25% (billions dollars) off of a stock's market cap because someone says he pinched their bottom decades ago- what nonsense. Yeah, it's horrible to think that way and you're not to allowed to speak your mind but there's a difference between how he acts and how the corporation performs.
Last edited by: Lovecomps on Jun 1, 2019
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billryan
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June 1st, 2019 at 11:34:03 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

what are the alternatives?



Education. Fifty years ago, investment options were limited and all were costly. Today, there is seemingly a fund for every purpose. Are concerns your only return? Are you comfortable owning stocks that use child labor? Do you care who people have sex with? If so, there is a fund for people with similar beliefs. Want to profit off of peoples sins? There's a fund for that.
Peer to Peer lending has become a huge business. It gives solid, if not spectacular returns. Micro investing, property ownership/management, self employment.
I know a kid who went from being an unemployed former vape store manager to owning three vape stores with sales of about a half million a year, all because he literally invested his rent money in an auction.
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AxelWolf
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June 1st, 2019 at 11:40:44 AM permalink
I think you are supposed to invest everything in cryptocurrency now.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Lovecomps
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June 1st, 2019 at 11:50:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think you are supposed to invest everything in cryptocurrency now.




Oh, how I yearn for the days gone by of having the Gold Standard.
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100xOdds
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August 13th, 2019 at 10:27:16 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

still waiting for the Trump stock market crash so I can move bonds back to stock funds
:)

interestingly enough, my corp bond fund is now doing slightly better than total market fund since i switched in dec 2017.

yeah, i gambled that the stock market would tank under Trump back in dec 2017.

and it has a couple of times where the DOW dropped below 25000 and my bonds were ahead by like +5%.
but my threshold for switching back is +10%.
and of course the market recovered and my bonds were back to being negative relative to the total market fund.

so far my bonds is +2% and the DOW is still above 26k???
corp bonds are doing great.
now wondering if i will gamble and switch back to stocks when i reach my +10% thread threshold...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SOOPOO
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August 13th, 2019 at 11:05:37 AM permalink
WoV portfolio up 52% from inception. I don't pay attention specifically, but likely lags 'the market' due to me buying bonds over the last 2-3 years. I buy individual bonds, not funds, so I get a locked in return assuming I keep them to maturity.
100xOdds
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August 14th, 2019 at 8:44:05 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

interestingly enough, my corp bond fund is now doing slightly better than total market fund since i switched in dec 2017.

yeah, i gambled that the stock market would tank under Trump back in dec 2017.

and it has a couple of times where the DOW dropped below 25000 and my bonds were ahead by like +5%.
but my threshold for switching back is +10%.
and of course the market recovered and my bonds were back to being negative relative to the total market fund.

so far my bonds is +2% and the DOW is still above 26k???
corp bonds are doing great.
now wondering if i will gamble and switch back to stocks when i reach my +10% thread threshold...


and the stock market is down -600 points on Bonds tripping a recession warning sign.

no idea what this means to my corp bond fund.
i guess we'll see tomorrow
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Paradigm
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August 14th, 2019 at 12:43:45 PM permalink
I think S&P will test 2800 support level, so we have a 1-2% to go on the sell off before there is some support. You're bond values should be going up as yields continue to decline. Keep in mind that the S&P is up over 13% YTD even with the latest 6% downturn since all time high that was reached only 19 calendar days ago...interesting times for sure!

We need to get tariffs removed for any kind of deal with China that Trump can "claim" a victory. Remove that business hurdle to increased profits and the equity market will react very favorably...no one wins with the two largest economies in a trade war...just get some consensus and settle already. I think this happens by 12/31 as Trump can't afford the political capital a US recession will cost him and the Chinese economy isn't exactly humming as a result either.
SOOPOO
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September 5th, 2019 at 7:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

WoV portfolio up 52% from inception. I don't pay attention specifically, but likely lags 'the market' due to me buying bonds over the last 2-3 years. I buy individual bonds, not funds, so I get a locked in return assuming I keep them to maturity.



Tremendously volatile last month. Was up 52% on August 12. Now up 53% midday September 5. Best stock MA. More than tripled since I bought it.
Paradigm
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September 5th, 2019 at 9:44:53 AM permalink
SooPoo, can you post a summary of the current portfolio?
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2019 at 7:03:56 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

SooPoo, can you post a summary of the current portfolio?



By percentage performance since purchase. Some were not purchased at the inception.

MA up 242%
AAPL
FB
COST
WWE
CSCO up 120%
ILMN
BRK.B
TWCUX
DIS
SPY
IYY up 52%
DVY
CELG
INDA
IWM
AOA
TD
IWN
VBR
YNDX
MO
BMO
ERUS
RING
CRWS
NYMX
K
SVA
PGF up 1%

(losers)
SPEU
TSLA
VDE
PETS
F down 50%
SLB
CBIS
TRIB
AR
NTEK down 99%

Assorted bonds 25% of the total portfolio

The results do NOT include dividends. And a few that were split offs or mergers are not accurate. TSLA for example, was bought and then some was added via a takeover of an energy stock.


By the way, TD Ameritrade has just eliminated all fees for trading stocks. Interesting business model.....
100xOdds
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October 3rd, 2019 at 7:11:27 AM permalink
dow dropped 450 points yesterday and is dropping 300 points today.
will i finally be able to see a 10%+ profit and finally switch my bonds back to stocks after 2 years...?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Paradigm
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October 3rd, 2019 at 10:40:31 AM permalink
You have been in bonds since October of 2017?
100xOdds
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October 3rd, 2019 at 10:08:49 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

You have been in bonds since October of 2017?


yes.
but thx to the fed rate cuts, my bonds are actually out doing the total market fund i switched out of 2 yrs ago by a couple of %.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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October 4th, 2019 at 5:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

yes.
but thx to the fed rate cuts, my bonds are actually out doing the total market fund i switched out of 2 yrs ago by a couple of %.



You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower......... So bonds, once bought, will either stay flat or go down in value..... I own bonds and treat them as non tradable assets. If I buy a bond that pays 3% I keep it until maturity. No matter what happens I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term. I'm increasing my bond %. Just in case ......
100xOdds
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October 4th, 2019 at 9:52:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower.........

I read that the odds of another rate cut before end of year has just increased.

So I guess I'm not swapping bonds to stocks till that time
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Paradigm
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October 4th, 2019 at 4:26:37 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You were either smart or lucky! I've said this before..... And been wrong..... But I don't think interest rates can go any lower......... So bonds, once bought, will either stay flat or go down in value..... I own bonds and treat them as non tradable assets. If I buy a bond that pays 3% I keep it until maturity. No matter what happens I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term. I'm increasing my bond %. Just in case ......


Have you looked at higher yielding dividend equity or REIT positions as a substitute for the low interest rate bonds? I like the following in that space:

VZ paying 4%+
MGP paying 6%+
EPD paying 6%+
OKE paying almost 5%

There are a lot of these opportunities out there with companies that over the long term will likely grow in value while you're getting paid. Of course the GE's & Ford's of the world are out there as well, so you have to be selective (you should take a look at Ford since you have had it...those dividends have been hefty and will have significantly reduced that loss).

There is no way I would be in bonds today with all the high yielding equity positions out there, just too much downside. The bond market today is the real estate market of 2006/2007...it is "bubblelicious".
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October 5th, 2019 at 7:46:33 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Have you looked at higher yielding dividend equity or REIT positions as a substitute for the low interest rate bonds? I like the following in that space:

VZ paying 4%+
MGP paying 6%+
EPD paying 6%+
OKE paying almost 5%

There are a lot of these opportunities out there with companies that over the long term will likely grow in value while you're getting paid. Of course the GE's & Ford's of the world are out there as well, so you have to be selective (you should take a look at Ford since you have had it...those dividends have been hefty and will have significantly reduced that loss).

There is no way I would be in bonds today with all the high yielding equity positions out there, just too much downside. The bond market today is the real estate market of 2006/2007...it is "bubblelicious".



I do have many REIT positions. I have 5 separate ones with a guy I jokingly call Madoff. I'm "guaranteed" 5% on the lowest, and 8% on the highest. And they usually liquidate after 3-5 years, returning another 10-20% For an average annual of 10+%. The reason I use this guy is that a friend has been using him for 15 years and has never had one of these deals fall through. It seems too good to be true, but I've put around 2% of my assets with him.
I also own a bunch of big publicly traded REITS. like O and NNN. I've owned O for over a decade. Just keeps going up and keeps increasing dividend.
I may have mentioned this earlier, but I'm also buying preferred stocks. See PFF and PGF.
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October 5th, 2019 at 7:59:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I get the 3% annually and my initial investment back at term.


Are you able to buy the bonds at face value? What sort of bonds? Have you actually yet held some to redemption?
Not expressing an opinion: Just curious.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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OnceDear
October 5th, 2019 at 8:10:26 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Are you able to buy the bonds at face value? What sort of bonds? Have you actually yet held some to redemption?
Not expressing an opinion: Just curious.



If its an initial offering, then yes, you buy it at face value, which is always $1000. So I'll buy "20" of an issue for exactly $20,000. I've held many to redemption. They just pay exactly $1000 per bond. I diversify in bonds just like stocks. I own some from ATT @T, IBM, Wells Fargo, Harvard, NY City, Sumitomo, etc.....

If you buy a bond on the secondary market there is a price listed. If a bond is paying, say, 6% for the next 6 years, you may have to pay $1200 for a bond which on redemption will pay you only $1000. If it is paying 1%, you may only have to pay $900.
100xOdds
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October 8th, 2019 at 6:32:13 PM permalink
Jim Cramer says chart analysts calls the top for the S&P 500:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/cramer-analyst-calls-a-top-in-the-sp-500-cruising-for-a-bruising.html

stocks will fall 10% soon, according to the expert.

this would be great for me.
while i wait for the fed to drop rates, the market falls.
after rates drop, my bonds will be worth more and stocks worth less.
sell bonds and go back into stocks.

sell high, buy low...
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Oct 8, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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