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thecesspit
thecesspit
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April 23rd, 2014 at 5:10:06 PM permalink
Yep, figured you for the long haul, long grind rather than looking for a twenty bagger and getting out.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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May 2nd, 2014 at 1:41:02 PM permalink
Down around 1% from inception. AAPL has done well recently. And I didn't even buy my new Iphone yet! Keep shopping at Costco everyone! And Kellogg Frosted Flakes are, grrrrrreat!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 17th, 2014 at 10:00:39 AM permalink
Portfolio now up around 3% from inception. Biggest percentage losers are WWE and NTEK. Despite being quite diversified, the portfolio is quite volatile on a day to day basis. I thought about the portfolio today because of SCTY which is up a lot today.
chrisr
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:00:37 PM permalink
It looks right now like stocks are overpriced? most in the 20x earnings range. companies with very little IP or anything that i can think of are trading over book.

the exception seems to be financials, what do you guys think about a play for some financial stocks?

I'm a real novice at this... I'm working through some free online courses.. so i can understand all this stuff better.
Paradigm
Paradigm
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:45:26 PM permalink
I stand behind my CELG pick, I'll pay 23 times earnings for a company growing at 23% this year, 32% next year, 28% in 2016 & 23% in 2017.

15 times 2017 earnings is a 33% move from here.....and I think the multiple in 2017 will be more like 18-20 times. Would love a close at $172 today, but that seems unlikely. If it clears that next week, no overhead resistance ahead. But I bet it pauses after running almost 7% this week.

SOOPOO, what did you purchase CELG at? No way was it at $303 per one of the tables earlier in the thread, I would expect that you were in the mid to low $160's and now slightly ahead.

It would be great to have you post top 5 and bottom 5 performers when you update the overall portfolio performance. Happy investing.
steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:51:24 PM permalink
Worst 5:

SVA Sinovac Biotech -12.91%
MM Millennial Media -39.75%
WWE World Wrestling E -62.00%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT -12.44%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE -43.60%


Top 5:

YNDX Yandex N.V. 18.73%
MO Altria Group 16.38%
VDE Vanguard Energy E 17.04%
RBL SPDR S&P Russia E 17.93%
AAPL Apple Inc. 21.62%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:59:09 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm



SOOPOO, what did you purchase CELG at? No way was it at $303 per one of the tables earlier in the thread, I would expect that you were in the mid to low $160's and now slightly ahead.



Answer is on page 6 of this thread.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 20th, 2014 at 2:03:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Portfolio now up around 3% from inception. Biggest percentage losers are WWE and NTEK. Despite being quite diversified, the portfolio is quite volatile on a day to day basis. I thought about the portfolio today because of SCTY which is up a lot today.



It is a unique thing you/we came up with, IMO no financial adviser would have come up with this on instructions to be diversified. It's fun for sure.

I'll have to look up the news on WWE, that's one hell of a plummet !
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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July 2nd, 2014 at 7:28:24 AM permalink
Of late this portfolio has been outperforming my others. Now up around 5.5% since inception. I have enough cash in a different portfolio to buy another stock.
I think I'll take the first suggestion!
Paradigm
Paradigm
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July 2nd, 2014 at 7:49:58 AM permalink
Can't recall if you have an auto yet, take Ford right here at $17+ if you don't
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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July 2nd, 2014 at 8:53:11 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Can't recall if you have an auto yet, take Ford right here at $17+ if you don't



I will.... but it won't feel good! I believe the very first stock I bought 23 years ago was GM.... it eventually went bankrupt on me..... I had it enough years that the dividends almost equalled what I put in.... but not a great pick for me!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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July 2nd, 2014 at 8:59:47 AM permalink
Got in at 17.23. Thanks paradgm....
Paradigm
Paradigm
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July 2nd, 2014 at 1:34:29 PM permalink
2.9% dividend and the only auto that didn't go BK :-).......a lot riding on the new F-150 coming out later this year, but I guarantee you that Mulally wouldn't leave if that project on F's biggest seller wasn't wrapped up nicely for a successful launch. Alan changed the culture at F and Bill Ford & new CEO will carry the One Ford model going forward.

It has been relatively dead money for about a year but I think you are looking at $23 in the next 12 months or a 33% increase plus the 3% divvy between now and then......that is unless the new aluminum based F-150 doesn't go over well. More upside than downside from what I see. Best of luck and hopefully you can thank me in a year :-) .
SOOPOO
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August 31st, 2014 at 2:25:13 PM permalink
Broke the 6% up number on Friday. Best stock has been AAPL, which was suggested by a friend. I can't even remember who! Worst has been WWE, suggested by me! I'm glad I didn't follow brother in law's all cash idea.
teddys
teddys
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September 1st, 2014 at 6:56:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Broke the 6% up number on Friday. Best stock has been AAPL, which was suggested by a friend. I can't even remember who! Worst has been WWE, suggested by me! I'm glad I didn't follow brother in law's all cash idea.

A lot of people are being made very, very happy by their AAPL holdings.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Paradigm
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September 1st, 2014 at 6:19:14 PM permalink
My money is still on CELG to out performance AAPL when measured on the one year anniversary of the portfolio :-), but both will continue to do very well.
Paradigm
Paradigm
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September 27th, 2014 at 11:33:02 AM permalink
SOOPOO, we need and end of Quarter Portfolio Update as of 9/30/14 next week :-)
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 15th, 2014 at 12:28:52 PM permalink
Any worries out there, going down down down..

It's the Oct surprise, that and Ebola.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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October 15th, 2014 at 12:33:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Any worries out there, going down down down..

It's the Oct surprise, that and Ebola.



maybe even connected

buying opportunities now

dow 17000 didn't seem to have solid support, so back to 16000 is no surprise. First we toyed with 52 week lows in a lot of stuff, but for Dow that would be more like 15000. Not saying we couldnt be heading there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 1st, 2015 at 9:13:39 AM permalink
It wasn't a whole year, but ended up 4.1% since its inception in March I think. Definitely lagged most stock indices. Big hurt was GTAT going bankrupt, WWE losing half, a few other 50% plus losses. Apple, Berkshire big gainers.....
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 1st, 2015 at 9:17:25 AM permalink
possibly like my own portfolio, maybe heavy in energy, international, and emerging. All of which have taken a hit.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teddys
teddys
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January 1st, 2015 at 11:31:43 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

possibly like my own portfolio, maybe heavy in energy, international, and emerging. All of which have taken a hit.

Double down.

Also, we are all very lucky we have money to screw around with in stocks :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Paradigm
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January 1st, 2015 at 12:18:16 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It wasn't a whole year, but ended up 4.1% since its inception in March I think. Definitely lagged most stock indices. Big hurt was GTAT going bankrupt, WWE losing half, a few other 50% plus losses. Apple, Berkshire big gainers.....


Where is the CELG love? I believe that edged Apple by 1% as your best gainer.....just saying :-).

Course my recommendation on the F at $17+ hasn't worked out so well, but it has until this July for the 1 year water mark.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 1st, 2015 at 1:05:37 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Where is the CELG love? I believe that edged Apple by 1% as your best gainer.....just saying :-).

Course my recommendation on the F at $17+ hasn't worked out so well, but it has until this July for the 1 year water mark.



Apple I believe pays dividends which I include in total performance. I think CELG does not pay dividends. Plus I put a lot more to start into AAPL.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 1st, 2015 at 4:30:13 PM permalink
How's Nano Tech doing?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 1st, 2015 at 6:52:19 PM permalink
NTEK is at .051 My recollection is I got mine at around .09 So down 40% or so. But I put very little money in it.
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
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January 1st, 2015 at 8:33:41 PM permalink
Good solid long term investment.....PPG

Pays a good dividend....has increased it every year over the last 100+ years if memory serves correctly.

Maybe a little on the high side at the moment, but if in for long term - not quick flip - very solid stock.
Son you ain’t paying attention I’m cutting you but you ain’t bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
Paradigm
Paradigm
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January 1st, 2015 at 9:29:05 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Apple I believe pays dividends which I include in total performance. I think CELG does not pay dividends. Plus I put a lot more to start into AAPL.


Ahhhh....Apple does have a sub 2% dividend, likely more than that based on your entry point.. Hang on to Celgene, it goes to $150 by 7/1 and has many years of 20%+ earnings growth ahead of it. I hold a lot of it personally and long side April call options I bought in November....I expect to quadruple my option costs by the time April rolls around.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 2nd, 2015 at 12:30:39 AM permalink
I have mixed feelings about buying bit coins.

Mind you I don't only want them for purely investment purposes.

I see many benefits, but I'm leary.

I was about to pull the trigger, but I talked to someone that worked for Ebay, he didn't think they would embrace bit coin anytime soon, if ever, due to fraud concerns. That made me pause.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Paradigm
Paradigm
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March 16th, 2015 at 4:47:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

(3/17/14) Today was the day...


Time for the one year anniversary performance update.....I think Apple was the stand out winner.
My pick for the next 12 mos. is United Rentals ("URI"), closed today at $87.79 and has a 40%+ upside from here.....of course I am averaged in at $94+ so I need it to start moving soon :-).
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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March 16th, 2015 at 5:03:48 PM permalink
I made these purchases on 1/5/15:

Wynn: 75 shares at $144
MGM: 500 shares at $20.50

Current values:

Wynn: $125.64 (but it did pay a $2 per share dividend recently)
MGM: $19.66

In short, I stink at picking stocks. Not just these purchases but my whole lifetime record. I'm almost as bad at the stock market as I am with women.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
teddys
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March 17th, 2015 at 5:06:00 AM permalink
I hope you hired a professional money manager to handle that windfall, then :) IMO you shouldn't have that much in stocks. I think the fixed income market would be a better play for you.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 17th, 2015 at 6:19:55 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

I hope you hired a professional money manager to handle that windfall, then :) IMO you shouldn't have that much in stocks. I think the fixed income market would be a better play for you.



I agree that you can't just say you stink at it and leave it at that.

Seek out a financial adviser ... with due diligence for avoiding a crook ... make sure he is fee based and FINRA approved. There should be a custodian [ the adviser should not just have the money and merely be claiming to do this and that with it]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Paradigm
Paradigm
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March 17th, 2015 at 8:27:24 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

I think the fixed income market would be a better play for you.


Bonds are going to be a very painful place to be over the next 24 mos........interest rates are going to go up and the bond bubble is going to burst.....of course I have been saying that for years :-).
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 17th, 2015 at 8:37:59 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Bonds are going to be a very painful place to be over the next 24 mos........interest rates are going to go up and the bond bubble is going to burst.....of course I have been saying that for years :-).



bond bubble only if sharp interest rate hikes.
I think the fed will do baby steps.

nothing to fear.. there will be no crash like the real estate market in 2008.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mdhovland
mdhovland
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March 17th, 2015 at 12:50:51 PM permalink
A pretty fair read with respect to interest rates and bonds:


The Crazy Man’s Guide to the Bond Market



This has been a very interesting thread from beginning to present, all 19 pages. More to come, I hope.


Ten Year Treasury Yield

Preliminary Point and Figure price count shows an incomplete objective on ten year rates to 3.25%... ...

Best,
Mark
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 17th, 2015 at 2:14:38 PM permalink
something wrong with that last link?

anyway, looked like the 10yr was marching right up to 2.5% ... but I think it was a case of some sellers but no buyers. Holding out in fear of the Fed. Now it has marched back down to almost 2% and actually I'd be surprised if we don't go below again.

Now, stocks, what a yo-yo that market is. It wants to make a correction but there's that TINA thing? What's going on?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mdhovland
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March 17th, 2015 at 2:21:06 PM permalink
Yes - thanks! Edited.
teddys
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March 24th, 2015 at 8:56:21 AM permalink
I don't know. The bond bears have been growling for a while. I'm not sure I would invest in a bond fund at this point. Too much interest rate risk. I do see some rather attractive investment-grade corporate debt, however. I just put my mom into some Solar Bonds for 2%/1y, 3%/3y, 4%/5y direct from SolarCity. Not a great yield but better than just about anything else out there.

If I were the Wizard I'd start the half-point parlay card Hedge Fund :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 24th, 2015 at 9:16:34 AM permalink
Unfamiliar territory for me - corporate bonds

the 10yr being above or below 2% is something I look for. Right now at 1.91% I unloaded a chunk. If it ever gets close to 1% I may have none left. Above 2% I start buying again - with trepidation
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Paradigm
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March 24th, 2015 at 10:33:52 AM permalink
Teddys......take a look at some energy MLP's as a bond alternative, still subject to interest rate risk, but distributions are tax deferred and you can find MLP's with ever increasing distributions that yield over 4% (tax deferred). My favorite play yields over 7% currently (ETP). The sector has taken a hit due to energy prices, but the beauty here is they just transport & store the commodities, they don't own them.
steeldco
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March 24th, 2015 at 11:02:49 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Teddys......take a look at some energy MLP's as a bond alternative, still subject to interest rate risk, but distributions are tax deferred and you can find MLP's with ever increasing distributions that yield over 4% (tax deferred). My favorite play yields over 7% currently (ETP). The sector has taken a hit due to energy prices, but the beauty here is they just transport & store the commodities, they don't own them.



Far from expert on this topic, but since I have read that oil storage is near 100% capacity, what impact does that have on future revenues. Might they become stagnant?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
surrender88s
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March 24th, 2015 at 11:13:01 AM permalink
The dollar is very strong now. Now is a good time to get into debt, like getting a mortgage, or investing in inflation hedges(which have done poorly recently).

Energy MLPs, oil company stocks, perhaps even gold miners if you are adventurous. There's a lot of risk right now in these assets, and they are underpriced because of it. If you believe the euro weakness and other middle east issues will subside, these natural resource and metals stocks could do ok.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
Paradigm
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March 24th, 2015 at 3:07:28 PM permalink
Agree the Energy MLP positions are not without risk (not only energy risk but interest rate risk as well), but then again buying bonds when the 10 Year has a sub 1.9% yield equates to an investor that is not risk averse.

I would rather take a 4-7% distribution and bet that the world uses more fossil fuels in the future (at these lower prices) then less. And when you transport & store the stuff, you like larger volumes :-).
aceofspades
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March 24th, 2015 at 3:30:26 PM permalink
Anyone's take on the upcoming GoDaddy IPO?
Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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March 24th, 2015 at 8:48:10 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Anyone's take on the upcoming GoDaddy IPO?



It's probably going to be oversubscribed, so I am putting in my allocation and hoping I get a piece.
teddys
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April 7th, 2015 at 9:25:38 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Teddys......take a look at some energy MLP's as a bond alternative, still subject to interest rate risk, but distributions are tax deferred and you can find MLP's with ever increasing distributions that yield over 4% (tax deferred). My favorite play yields over 7% currently (ETP). The sector has taken a hit due to energy prices, but the beauty here is they just transport & store the commodities, they don't own them.

Oh, I am on it :) You know I used to work in the energy business, so I know of the scam. It is a beautiful scam. I own SXL and AM at the moment. I'll look into ETP. I am a huge fan of BP and their 6% dividend right now as well.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 7th, 2015 at 10:42:30 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Oh, I am on it :) You know I used to work in the energy business, so I know of the scam. It is a beautiful scam. I own SXL and AM at the moment. I'll look into ETP. I am a huge fan of BP and their 6% dividend right now as well.



A little easier to take a risk these days maybe ... oil is recovering , mid-50s these days
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
coilman
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August 14th, 2015 at 2:33:20 PM permalink
Anybody short TRICAN WELL SERVICES a few weeks back ?

Now that would have been a grand slam ..... man the grunts sure knew nothing about the company debt or none would have been buying the stock in the stock plan or retirement plan

LOT of guys going to lose everything they owned
teddys
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August 14th, 2015 at 8:43:43 PM permalink
Quote: coilman

Anybody short TRICAN WELL SERVICES a few weeks back ?

Now that would have been a grand slam ..... man the grunts sure knew nothing about the company debt or none would have been buying the stock in the stock plan or retirement plan

LOT of guys going to lose everything they owned

Every energy company's equity is getting battered, but that is worse than most. Lot of bankruptcies for those who can't pay their bills now that prices are so low. My company hedged Nat Gas at $4.00+ but now those hedges are rolling off. I have a big chunk of their stock and, yeah, I'm a hell of lot poorer. Way the cookie crumbles, I guess. I'm looking for a good real estate play right now. I hate variance!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
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