the exception seems to be financials, what do you guys think about a play for some financial stocks?
I'm a real novice at this... I'm working through some free online courses.. so i can understand all this stuff better.
15 times 2017 earnings is a 33% move from here.....and I think the multiple in 2017 will be more like 18-20 times. Would love a close at $172 today, but that seems unlikely. If it clears that next week, no overhead resistance ahead. But I bet it pauses after running almost 7% this week.
SOOPOO, what did you purchase CELG at? No way was it at $303 per one of the tables earlier in the thread, I would expect that you were in the mid to low $160's and now slightly ahead.
It would be great to have you post top 5 and bottom 5 performers when you update the overall portfolio performance. Happy investing.
SVA | Sinovac Biotech | -12.91% |
MM | Millennial Media | -39.75% |
WWE | World Wrestling E | -62.00% |
ntek | NANOTECH ENTAINMT | -12.44% |
cbis | CANNABIS SCIENCE | -43.60% |
Top 5:
YNDX | Yandex N.V. | 18.73% |
MO | Altria Group | 16.38% |
VDE | Vanguard Energy E | 17.04% |
RBL | SPDR S&P Russia E | 17.93% |
AAPL | Apple Inc. | 21.62% |
Quote: Paradigm
SOOPOO, what did you purchase CELG at? No way was it at $303 per one of the tables earlier in the thread, I would expect that you were in the mid to low $160's and now slightly ahead.
Answer is on page 6 of this thread.
Quote: SOOPOOPortfolio now up around 3% from inception. Biggest percentage losers are WWE and NTEK. Despite being quite diversified, the portfolio is quite volatile on a day to day basis. I thought about the portfolio today because of SCTY which is up a lot today.
It is a unique thing you/we came up with, IMO no financial adviser would have come up with this on instructions to be diversified. It's fun for sure.
I'll have to look up the news on WWE, that's one hell of a plummet !
I think I'll take the first suggestion!
Quote: ParadigmCan't recall if you have an auto yet, take Ford right here at $17+ if you don't
I will.... but it won't feel good! I believe the very first stock I bought 23 years ago was GM.... it eventually went bankrupt on me..... I had it enough years that the dividends almost equalled what I put in.... but not a great pick for me!
It has been relatively dead money for about a year but I think you are looking at $23 in the next 12 months or a 33% increase plus the 3% divvy between now and then......that is unless the new aluminum based F-150 doesn't go over well. More upside than downside from what I see. Best of luck and hopefully you can thank me in a year :-) .
A lot of people are being made very, very happy by their AAPL holdings.Quote: SOOPOOBroke the 6% up number on Friday. Best stock has been AAPL, which was suggested by a friend. I can't even remember who! Worst has been WWE, suggested by me! I'm glad I didn't follow brother in law's all cash idea.
It's the Oct surprise, that and Ebola.
Quote: EvenBobAny worries out there, going down down down..
It's the Oct surprise, that and Ebola.
maybe even connected
buying opportunities now
dow 17000 didn't seem to have solid support, so back to 16000 is no surprise. First we toyed with 52 week lows in a lot of stuff, but for Dow that would be more like 15000. Not saying we couldnt be heading there.
Double down.Quote: odiousgambitpossibly like my own portfolio, maybe heavy in energy, international, and emerging. All of which have taken a hit.
Also, we are all very lucky we have money to screw around with in stocks :)
Quote: SOOPOOIt wasn't a whole year, but ended up 4.1% since its inception in March I think. Definitely lagged most stock indices. Big hurt was GTAT going bankrupt, WWE losing half, a few other 50% plus losses. Apple, Berkshire big gainers.....
Where is the CELG love? I believe that edged Apple by 1% as your best gainer.....just saying :-).
Course my recommendation on the F at $17+ hasn't worked out so well, but it has until this July for the 1 year water mark.
Quote: ParadigmWhere is the CELG love? I believe that edged Apple by 1% as your best gainer.....just saying :-).
Course my recommendation on the F at $17+ hasn't worked out so well, but it has until this July for the 1 year water mark.
Apple I believe pays dividends which I include in total performance. I think CELG does not pay dividends. Plus I put a lot more to start into AAPL.
Pays a good dividend....has increased it every year over the last 100+ years if memory serves correctly.
Maybe a little on the high side at the moment, but if in for long term - not quick flip - very solid stock.
Quote: SOOPOOApple I believe pays dividends which I include in total performance. I think CELG does not pay dividends. Plus I put a lot more to start into AAPL.
Ahhhh....Apple does have a sub 2% dividend, likely more than that based on your entry point.. Hang on to Celgene, it goes to $150 by 7/1 and has many years of 20%+ earnings growth ahead of it. I hold a lot of it personally and long side April call options I bought in November....I expect to quadruple my option costs by the time April rolls around.
Mind you I don't only want them for purely investment purposes.
I see many benefits, but I'm leary.
I was about to pull the trigger, but I talked to someone that worked for Ebay, he didn't think they would embrace bit coin anytime soon, if ever, due to fraud concerns. That made me pause.
Quote: SOOPOO(3/17/14) Today was the day...
Time for the one year anniversary performance update.....I think Apple was the stand out winner.
My pick for the next 12 mos. is United Rentals ("URI"), closed today at $87.79 and has a 40%+ upside from here.....of course I am averaged in at $94+ so I need it to start moving soon :-).
Wynn: 75 shares at $144
MGM: 500 shares at $20.50
Current values:
Wynn: $125.64 (but it did pay a $2 per share dividend recently)
MGM: $19.66
In short, I stink at picking stocks. Not just these purchases but my whole lifetime record. I'm almost as bad at the stock market as I am with women.
Quote: teddysI hope you hired a professional money manager to handle that windfall, then :) IMO you shouldn't have that much in stocks. I think the fixed income market would be a better play for you.
I agree that you can't just say you stink at it and leave it at that.
Seek out a financial adviser ... with due diligence for avoiding a crook ... make sure he is fee based and FINRA approved. There should be a custodian [ the adviser should not just have the money and merely be claiming to do this and that with it]
Quote: teddysI think the fixed income market would be a better play for you.
Bonds are going to be a very painful place to be over the next 24 mos........interest rates are going to go up and the bond bubble is going to burst.....of course I have been saying that for years :-).
Quote: ParadigmBonds are going to be a very painful place to be over the next 24 mos........interest rates are going to go up and the bond bubble is going to burst.....of course I have been saying that for years :-).
bond bubble only if sharp interest rate hikes.
I think the fed will do baby steps.
nothing to fear.. there will be no crash like the real estate market in 2008.
The Crazy Man’s Guide to the Bond Market
This has been a very interesting thread from beginning to present, all 19 pages. More to come, I hope.
Ten Year Treasury Yield
Preliminary Point and Figure price count shows an incomplete objective on ten year rates to 3.25%... ...
Best,
Mark
anyway, looked like the 10yr was marching right up to 2.5% ... but I think it was a case of some sellers but no buyers. Holding out in fear of the Fed. Now it has marched back down to almost 2% and actually I'd be surprised if we don't go below again.
Now, stocks, what a yo-yo that market is. It wants to make a correction but there's that TINA thing? What's going on?
If I were the Wizard I'd start the half-point parlay card Hedge Fund :)
the 10yr being above or below 2% is something I look for. Right now at 1.91% I unloaded a chunk. If it ever gets close to 1% I may have none left. Above 2% I start buying again - with trepidation
Quote: ParadigmTeddys......take a look at some energy MLP's as a bond alternative, still subject to interest rate risk, but distributions are tax deferred and you can find MLP's with ever increasing distributions that yield over 4% (tax deferred). My favorite play yields over 7% currently (ETP). The sector has taken a hit due to energy prices, but the beauty here is they just transport & store the commodities, they don't own them.
Far from expert on this topic, but since I have read that oil storage is near 100% capacity, what impact does that have on future revenues. Might they become stagnant?
Energy MLPs, oil company stocks, perhaps even gold miners if you are adventurous. There's a lot of risk right now in these assets, and they are underpriced because of it. If you believe the euro weakness and other middle east issues will subside, these natural resource and metals stocks could do ok.
I would rather take a 4-7% distribution and bet that the world uses more fossil fuels in the future (at these lower prices) then less. And when you transport & store the stuff, you like larger volumes :-).
Quote: aceofspadesAnyone's take on the upcoming GoDaddy IPO?
It's probably going to be oversubscribed, so I am putting in my allocation and hoping I get a piece.
Oh, I am on it :) You know I used to work in the energy business, so I know of the scam. It is a beautiful scam. I own SXL and AM at the moment. I'll look into ETP. I am a huge fan of BP and their 6% dividend right now as well.Quote: ParadigmTeddys......take a look at some energy MLP's as a bond alternative, still subject to interest rate risk, but distributions are tax deferred and you can find MLP's with ever increasing distributions that yield over 4% (tax deferred). My favorite play yields over 7% currently (ETP). The sector has taken a hit due to energy prices, but the beauty here is they just transport & store the commodities, they don't own them.
Quote: teddysOh, I am on it :) You know I used to work in the energy business, so I know of the scam. It is a beautiful scam. I own SXL and AM at the moment. I'll look into ETP. I am a huge fan of BP and their 6% dividend right now as well.
A little easier to take a risk these days maybe ... oil is recovering , mid-50s these days
Now that would have been a grand slam ..... man the grunts sure knew nothing about the company debt or none would have been buying the stock in the stock plan or retirement plan
LOT of guys going to lose everything they owned
Every energy company's equity is getting battered, but that is worse than most. Lot of bankruptcies for those who can't pay their bills now that prices are so low. My company hedged Nat Gas at $4.00+ but now those hedges are rolling off. I have a big chunk of their stock and, yeah, I'm a hell of lot poorer. Way the cookie crumbles, I guess. I'm looking for a good real estate play right now. I hate variance!Quote: coilmanAnybody short TRICAN WELL SERVICES a few weeks back ?
Now that would have been a grand slam ..... man the grunts sure knew nothing about the company debt or none would have been buying the stock in the stock plan or retirement plan
LOT of guys going to lose everything they owned