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RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:11:01 AM permalink
In the past, I have been rather risky, most of the time around 80% in stocks. I always figured I could ride out the bad times, and what goes down, goes back up, so just stay invested in stocks, and my new contributions were getting a good price.

Here is the strategy of this fund;

The Interest Income Fund, a unitized fund, seeks
to provide income similar to an intermediate-
term bond fund with low volatility and to
preserve principal. The fund may invest in
wrapped bonds, a limited amount of unwrapped
bonds, cash, and U.S. government Series I savings
bonds. For the wrapped bonds, the fund invests
in insurance contracts (“wrap contracts”) which
allow the portfolio to earn a specified rate of
interest that may be more or less than the actual
income earned by the fixed income securities.
Unit price, yield and return will vary.

This fund did well in 2006-2008, as in it did not lose value. However, I am leery of the bonds, as I agree, bonds are not going to fair well when the interest rates start climbing, which they will start doing. I had a heavy investment in TIPS up to last year. I got out of them one month too late, taking a pretty bad bath at the very end.

So, given that I think stocks are headed down in the immediate future, and that I feel bonds will fall as well, where does an investor go for the next couple of years? Ladder some Short term CDs?

I will be looking to do a slow entry back into stocks, once the Dow hits the 15,500 level. I rode out the 2007 crash in my stocks, and made a good call to go 100% into stocks in late 2008. So I got my money back faster than most, but again, at this stage, I would not be able to withstand a 30% drop in my principle.

If I was a bit more liquid, I would look at true real estate. I thought that was what a REIT was for, but it seems my REIT choices are more on the loan side of things, and they do not perform well when the interest rate rises.

I am meeting with a financial adviser on Monday, so I am not flying solo here, but I have watched many 'advisers' have their clients always invested in the high flyers, Worldcomm, Enron, Juniper, etc. when any monkey could have picked winners. Then it implodes, and the 'adviser' points to the fine print about any investment contains unknown risks, blah blah.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RaleighCraps
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:28:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'm no expert, but to have a plan that does NOT take into account inflation is foolhardy. It would be like saying I have a plan that will beat baccarat if you just don't count the commission on dealer....
If you really believe that there will be a 'pullback', then there are multiple options to use your money to take advantage of that, rather than just have it sitting in neutral.
I also agree that there are no cash equivalents earning 2% a year now. Any fund that advertises as such, is using bonds as an underlying force. Those bonds can and do go down in value when interest rates rise.
A few pages earlier I mentioned my brother in law has the same feeling you do, and he has moved his positions to all cash. I'm not smart enough nor active enough to do that. I never know when a stock, or 'the market', is overvalued, or undervalued. Any investment advisor would tell me I am grossly overweighted in stocks. Given your age and circumstances, I would guess a professional would have you in something like 1/2 stocks, 2/5 bonds, and 1/10 cash.



I'm no expert either, but I read many reports, and the number of people who believe we are in the middle of a long bull run pales to the much larger number of pundits who believe we are nearing the end of this 5 year run. Oh sure, most of these guys are right as often as the weatherman is, but there are enough signs that make me think the bears have a better chance of being right.

Am I playing the timing game? Of course I am. Is it the right move? Well, if the markets drop badly this summer, I am a genius. If they hold even, it is a wash, and if they continue to climb, then I have given away the chance to make some money, but I still have what I started the year with (well, I am actually up 3.2% for the year, since I just converted to this fund this month).

Please keep the comments coming. It may not seem like I am listening, but I do value the input and I am not all that comfortable with the fund I am in.

I am also leaning towards rolling over my Roth 401k to my stock broker Roth IRA, so I can have more control over the investments. I want to be able to invest in Indexes and sector ETFs, and not have to pay the higher, managed fund fee choices that I have now.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
SOOPOO
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March 23rd, 2014 at 8:23:39 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I'm no expert either, but I read many reports, and the number of people who believe we are in the middle of a long bull run pales to the much larger number of pundits who believe we are nearing the end of this 5 year run.
Am I playing the timing game? Of course I am.



And that's where you and I differ. I won't be playing a timing game. If we made this thread two years ago I'm betting you would have written...
"The number of people who believe we are in the middle of a long bull run pales to the much larger number of pundits who believe we are nearing the end of this 3 year run"... And missed out on two years of 30+% gains......
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2014 at 7:04:11 AM permalink
Added

1% K 62.02
1% TRIB 25.57
1% CAM 63.38
9% SPY 186.36

K is someone's initial
TRIB was suggested by steeldco
A friend works for CAM here in Buffalo
SPY because I looked at a bunch of the ones I picked which are tanking.... TSLA, SCTY, ILMN... and I wanted to be more on the boat with everyone else rather than sailing alone!
SFB
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March 24th, 2014 at 7:25:27 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I'm no expert either, but I read many reports, and the number of people who believe we are in the middle of a long bull run pales to the much larger number of pundits who believe we are nearing the end of this 5 year run. Oh sure, most of these guys are right as often as the weatherman is, but there are enough signs that make me think the bears have a better chance of being right.

Am I playing the timing game? Of course I am. Is it the right move? Well, if the markets drop badly this summer, I am a genius. If they hold even, it is a wash, and if they continue to climb, then I have given away the chance to make some money, but I still have what I started the year with (well, I am actually up 3.2% for the year, since I just converted to this fund this month).

Please keep the comments coming. It may not seem like I am listening, but I do value the input and I am not all that comfortable with the fund I am in.

I am also leaning towards rolling over my Roth 401k to my stock broker Roth IRA, so I can have more control over the investments. I want to be able to invest in Indexes and sector ETFs, and not have to pay the higher, managed fund fee choices that I have now.



RC:

You are at a place that you didn't expect. And that forces most to be conservative.... What *IS* going to happen in the future?

And we just do not know.

We can, however, presume that you are going to be around to about age 80-85. And with that, you have a time horizon of 25 or more years. In some ways you are reacting to how you would be reacting when your timeline is less than 10 years. (Age75+)

Some exposure back into the market makes sense. Can you remember what you paid for your first mutual fund or other stock investments in your 401(k)'s from 20 or more years ago? Probably not. And it is just like the investments you will make today. The Dow may be at 16k, and three months from now, it may be at 15.5k or 16.5k. But in 10 years it will probably be at 21K. THAT will be your inflation hedge.

If you are looking for something secure, you can look at an annuity from insurance companies. *They* may not be the *best* investments, but if they promise a 4 or 5% guaranteed rate of return, over a period of time, then that can be a portion of your portfolio as a hedge as well. Take your time about buying one. These things are *SOLD* not bought. And you can't get out what you put in for at least 6-7 years, etc. But, if you are looking for some stability.

BTW, I don't sell annuities. But they have their place in some investment portfolio's.

SFB
RaleighCraps
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March 24th, 2014 at 4:44:27 PM permalink
I may have given the wrong impression. I am not retreating to cash equivalent for my entire retirement. But I am planning to play it very safe for the next year or so. I have made my 3.2% for this year, so I can wait to see what happens. If I see a 7% correction, I may put 10% back into stocks. If the market corrects more, than I can invest another 10%. I may be too early, but I will be buying lower as I go, with 80% of my portfolio available to invest. If there is a total collapse, I will still be better off than if I was invested fully now. If the market continues to climb, I will have missed an opportunity to gain more, but what I have now will get me through.

The old adage, "Bears make money, Bulls make money, but Pigs get slaughtered" is oh so true.

I have been handed a retirement that came 3 years early than I had planned. In analyzing my current retirement funds, I realize my current funds will last me until age 88, if I make 2% a year on my fund, until 95 if I make 3%
However, if I am forced to withdraw money from my fund, in the same year that fund gets a 15% haircut, that creates a deficit that is damn near impossible to recover from.
For the last 2 years, I have been in an 70/30 mix. I still had 3 years to go before retirement, so that was a risk I was willing to take, and I had time and contributions to make up in case of a downturn. Now I have neither time, nor contributions., so risking a downturn this year by staying too invested in stocks is for me a risk I am not willing to take.
How many people would have been happy to have gone to cash in 2007? I took a 35% bath in '08. I was lucky, got into the market near the bottom, and was made whole in the 2009 run up. Others had to wait much longer to get their money back.

SFB, I agree that immediate annuities have their place, and can be a very appropriate vehicle in the right situations. Now is a tough time to need an annuity though, since the interest rates are creating very low payouts. Fortunately, I have a pension, so I have a fixed income stream which is sufficient to carry me to SS. Now if SS should disappear, all bets are off. But if that happens, I will be in trouble along with 40 million of my closest friends.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
odiousgambit
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March 24th, 2014 at 6:02:23 PM permalink
some kind moderator should probably split this off

Quote: RaleighCraps

In the past, I have been rather risky, most of the time around 80% in stocks.


Quote:

I may have given the wrong impression. I am not retreating to cash equivalent for my entire retirement.



Now this sounds more like the Craps player we have come to know!

Quote:

I am meeting with a financial adviser on Monday, so I am not flying solo here, but I have watched many 'advisers' have their clients always invested in the high flyers, Worldcomm, Enron, Juniper, etc. when any monkey could have picked winners. Then it implodes, and the 'adviser' points to the fine print about any investment contains unknown risks, blah blah.



I am glad you are getting professional advice. And also glad you are a bit leery. I wish I knew better how to steer you to the right guy. I have heard it is good to check with Finra. Also, you should make sure you are with a financial adviser and not just a broker selling stocks for a commission. Ask them what services they offer. If those are limited to only buying and selling things for you, run.

Try this: http://www.finra.org/Investors/ToolsCalculators/BrokerCheck/

Quote:

I agree that immediate annuities have their place, and can be a very appropriate vehicle in the right situations. Now is a tough time to need an annuity though, since the interest rates are creating very low payouts.



I hear horror stories, currently, about annuities. Everybody kind of recognizes it's not clear where you should put your money now if you want less risk, so they are being sold like crazy. One selling point has always been that there are some tax benefits [edited]. But the people selling them earn a huge commission that is taken right off the top. You are correct that the payouts now have to be low; so, often, they guarantee 7% or something without telling you that that money is your principle being returned to you after the big haircut for their commission.

Finra again:
http://www.finra.org/investors/protectyourself/investoralerts/annuitiesandinsurance/p005976
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RaleighCraps
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March 24th, 2014 at 6:42:47 PM permalink
Annuity as a description is way too broad of a term. There are immediate annuities (that act like a pension, in that it can be a specific payment for life), deferred annuities (where the company takes your money now, in return for higher payouts down the road), tax deferred annuities that offer you a tax break, annuities with a guaranteed payout amount, etc.

My favorite read is when someone writes in for help, and says that their financial advisor has put them in a nice tax deferred annuity in their IRA account. Say WHAT? Why would someone put a tax deferred vehicle in an already tax deferred account? That is just stupid, yet it happens.

The advisor today was not much help. He mentioned that they are more geared to people who have no knowledge and are looking for someone to manage their money into retirement for them. He looked my numbers over, and said it looked okay, but I don't think he really dug into them very far. I'm not feeling much more confident than I was before the meeting.

I agree this has dragged off topic now. My original post talked about the market, so it was close to topic, but it has drifted.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2014 at 5:33:29 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps



I agree this has dragged off topic now. My original post talked about the market, so it was close to topic, but it has drifted.



Don't worry! That's what this forum is all about! You initially commented on a topic, and the subject broadened. So instead of talking about my specific stocks for my retirement we are talking about yours.
Excellent pick up regarding the broker/advisor you spoke with. If they can't get you to let them manage your money for a percentage of your assets, they really have no need for you!
RaleighCraps
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:25:07 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Don't worry! That's what this forum is all about! You initially commented on a topic, and the subject broadened. So instead of talking about my specific stocks for my retirement we are talking about yours...



That is a quick conversation though, since I have NO stocks. ;-)

I have asked the mods for a split out of the mini thread derail I seem to have created
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
odiousgambit
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March 25th, 2014 at 6:43:29 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Annuity as a description is way too broad of a term. There are immediate annuities (that act like a pension, in that it can be a specific payment for life), deferred annuities (where the company takes your money now, in return for higher payouts down the road), tax deferred annuities that offer you a tax break, annuities with a guaranteed payout amount, etc.



You probably know more about them than I do. I am just glad I got the worst stories out, in case you hadn't heard of some of the things. I mean, for Finra to write all that stuff about some of the bad characters involved...

Quote:

The advisor today was not much help. He mentioned that they are more geared to people who have no knowledge and are looking for someone to manage their money into retirement for them. He looked my numbers over, and said it looked okay, but I don't think he really dug into them very far. I'm not feeling much more confident than I was before the meeting.




Quote: SOOPOO

Excellent pick up regarding the broker/advisor you spoke with. If they can't get you to let them manage your money for a percentage of your assets, they really have no need for you!



Ditch that guy. A financial advisor he is not [sounds like to me]. There is a ton of stuff he can help you with if he was. People screw up mandatory distributions because they try to do it on their own, for example. If you manage to be one of them, the penalty is 50% of the tax you owed IIRC.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RaleighCraps
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March 25th, 2014 at 7:04:52 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

... People screw up mandatory distributions because they try to do it on their own, for example. If you manage to be one of them, the penalty is 50% of the tax you owed IIRC.



I am speaking from memory, so I am likely not 100% correct, but I believe what you are referring to is the Required Minimum Distribution, which occurs at age 70 1/2. If you fail to take out the minimum amount, the penalty is 50% of the amount you were required to take. So yes, that is a major screw up.

I believe that is in place to prevent very wealthy people from loading up their IRAs, not taking any money, and then leaving a huge amount of tax free income to their heirs, assuming of course they stay under the estate taxes as well.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
SFB
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March 25th, 2014 at 7:09:33 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

I am speaking from memory, so I am likely not 100% correct, but I believe what you are referring to is the Required Minimum Distribution, which occurs at age 70 1/2. If you fail to take out the minimum amount, the penalty is 50% of the amount you were required to take. So yes, that is a major screw up.

I believe that is in place to prevent very wealthy people from loading up their IRAs, not taking any money, and then leaving a huge amount of tax free income to their heirs, assuming of course they stay under the estate taxes as well.



RC:

Once someone has to start taking the Required Minimum Distribution at age 70.5, and then they pass away, the non-spousal beneficiaries have to continue to take the distributions over their expected lifetimes. And paying tax on those distributions as well.

And yes, Congress set up the system to *force* you to start taking some of the money out so that they can get some tax $$ from it.

SFB
odiousgambit
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March 25th, 2014 at 7:33:22 AM permalink
There are plenty of complicated things to maneuver through; people can cost themselves money if they need help and don't get it. If this guy was a true financial advisor, he would offer to help.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RaleighCraps
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March 25th, 2014 at 10:47:40 AM permalink
Thanks SFB for setting the record straight on the RMD. I had forgotten about the beneficiary part.

For the record, the guy I went to is a 'coach' who is paid for by my (ex)company, as a service to folks they just discarded (me). Since it was free, I got what I paid for.......
I'm sure he would have plenty of solid advice if I was asking him to manage my portfolio.
And this does bring up a good point. I think I may still need a pro to determine what my required distributions are. I am pretty good at discerning IRS Pubs, but I know this is one calc that everyone complains about, and the penalties for getting it wrong are severe.

Edit: This is a national firm that is very good. I think the disconnect is, from my walking papers, I thought we were being offered personal coaching, which does not seem to be the case.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2014 at 9:54:16 AM permalink
Added INDA, GAF, RING, MHM today. Felt I was under-represented on the subcontinent, and in the middle east. I watch so many gold exploration shows it would have been disingenuous to not own one gold mining position. And last one is someone's initials....

As of now my portfolio is trailing the overall market, probably by .1%. It seems to be quite volatile!
SFB
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March 26th, 2014 at 3:27:13 PM permalink
RC:

You asked this:

Quote: RC

And this does bring up a good point. I think I may still need a pro to determine what my required distributions are. I am pretty good at discerning IRS Pubs, but I know this is one calc that everyone complains about, and the penalties for getting it wrong are severe.



The companies are pretty good about doing this for you. If you are with the larger firms. If you get with a one person shop, that guy may overlook the RMD, but if they are taking care of business, then it won't be a problem. And if this RMD isn't for 15 years in your case, then the systems will be even better to make sure they happen in the future.

However, the thumbnail number to determine the first years withdrawal: Take the balance in all your 401(k),IRA, tax deferred accounts on 12/31 and divide by 26. The next year? Divide by 25, and so on and so on. That will give you a pretty good estimate.

SFB
michael99000
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March 26th, 2014 at 3:54:56 PM permalink
CELG is such an enigma. Tons of cash flow, great pipeline, awesome balance sheet.. But going nowhere lately as far as stock price goes.
odiousgambit
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March 26th, 2014 at 6:16:34 PM permalink
Quote: SFB

However, the thumbnail number to determine the first years withdrawal: Take the balance in all your 401(k),IRA, tax deferred accounts on 12/31 and divide by 26. The next year? Divide by 25, and so on and so on. That will give you a pretty good estimate.



There also are online calculators, the approach I intend to take.

http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/ira-minimum-distribution-calculator-tool.aspx
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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March 27th, 2014 at 12:29:18 PM permalink
I believe that major companies that are happy to hold your accounts will have two separate accounts that are linked. The IRA account will 'automatically' have a set amount transferred monthly to the non-IRA account. In 18 years that will be my plan! If my new WoV portfolio isn't bankrupt by then!
RaleighCraps
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March 27th, 2014 at 3:18:47 PM permalink
sorry Soopoo about the thread derail.
I had asked for a moderator split, so I didn't want to start a new thread, but rumor has it a sticks and stones fight has broken out amongst some of the other [redacted], and are too busy to split.
Now back to your topic......
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
steeldco
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March 28th, 2014 at 2:00:38 PM permalink
So, If I did this correctly.....

Your Worst 5 Performers:

SCTY SolarCity Corpora $75.00 $61.38 -$13.62 -18.16%
FB Facebook $68.01 $60.01 -$8.00 -11.76%
ILMN Illumina $320.84 $284.04 -$36.80 -11.47%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE $0.18 $0.16 -$0.02 -10.63%
WWE World Wrestling E $30.53 $27.52 -$3.01 -9.86%



Your Best 5 Performers:

SVA Sinovac Biotech 6.43 $6.94 $0.51 7.93%
AR Antero Resources 60.92 $64.04 $3.12 5.12%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT $0.09 $0.09 $0.00 5.00%
CSCO Cisco Systems 21.53 $22.33 $0.80 3.72%
VDE Vanguard Energy E 495.88 $513.48 $17.60 3.55%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
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April 3rd, 2014 at 6:35:09 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

So, If I did this correctly.....

Your Worst 5 Performers:


SCTY SolarCity Corpora $75.00 $61.38 -$13.62 -18.16%
FB Facebook $68.01 $60.01 -$8.00 -11.76%
ILMN Illumina $320.84 $284.04 -$36.80 -11.47%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE $0.18 $0.16 -$0.02 -10.63%
WWE World Wrestling E $30.53 $27.52 -$3.01 -9.86%



Your Best 5 Performers:

SVA Sinovac Biotech 6.43 $6.94 $0.51 7.93%
AR Antero Resources 60.92 $64.04 $3.12 5.12%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT $0.09 $0.09 $0.00 5.00%
CSCO Cisco Systems 21.53 $22.33 $0.80 3.72%
VDE Vanguard Energy E 495.88 $513.48 $17.60 3.55%



ILMN is trading around 150, VDE around 130.... I'm not sure where you get 320 or 495 from....

Anyway, the total portfolio is up around .5% from my initial cost. Ridiculous volatility!
steeldco
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April 4th, 2014 at 4:56:03 AM permalink
It is weighted the way you had stated previously, i.e. ILMN you had said that you bought 2% of your portfolio. Therefore is was 2 X's the value of 1 share.
VDE you had said that you bought 4%, therefore 4 X's the value, etc.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Face
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April 4th, 2014 at 5:41:33 AM permalink
Steeldco, when you make tables, make sure the final table ends with {/tbl}. You're forgetting the backslash and that's what is breaking the pages ;)
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steeldco
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April 4th, 2014 at 5:45:10 AM permalink
Quote: Face

Steeldco, when you make tables, make sure the final table ends with {/tbl}. You're forgetting the backslash and that's what is breaking the pages ;)



OK. Thanks. I'll try to keep it in mind. Just bare with this old man. Sometimes it takes a couple of years for something to sink in......... :-)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Face
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April 4th, 2014 at 5:50:38 AM permalink
If you mess it up, I'll keep fixing it. But "teach a man to fish..." and all that =)
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steeldco
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:01:50 AM permalink
Face,
Below is a table of the portfolio. Did I do this correctly? What causes it to be centered instead of on the left side of the page?


Symbol Name Purchase Current Change % Change
YNDX Yandex N.V. 29.95 $30.46 $0.51 1.70%
FB Facebook 68.01 $59.49 -$8.52 -12.53%
AR Antero Resources 60.92 $66.08 $5.16 8.47%
CELG Celgene Corporati 303.7 $287.20 -$16.50 -5.43%
MA Mastercard Incorp 155.26 $149.06 -$6.20 -3.99%
DIS Walt Disney Compa 162.7 $163.38 $0.68 0.42%
CSCO Cisco Systems 21.53 $23.09 $1.56 7.25%
MO Altria Group 36.39 $37.59 $1.20 3.30%
VDE Vanguard Energy E 495.88 $520.64 $24.76 4.99%
SVA Sinovac Biotech 6.43 $7.12 $0.69 10.73%
ILMN Illumina 320.84 $296.88 -$23.96 -7.47%
TD Toronto Dominion 46.5 $46.72 $0.22 0.47%
BMO Bank Of Montreal 65.61 $66.90 $1.29 1.97%
COST Costco Wholesale 113.85 $111.70 -$2.15 -1.89%
GTAT GT Advanced Techn 17.34 $17.80 $0.46 2.65%
SCTY SolarCity Corpora 75 $60.50 -$14.50 -19.33%
RBL SPDR S&P Russia E 21.7 $23.15 $1.45 6.68%
MM Millennial Media 7.22 $6.99 -$0.23 -3.19%
BRK. BRK 617.7 $621.55 $3.85 0.62%
WWE World Wrestling E 30.53 $28.41 -$2.12 -6.94%
AAPL Apple Inc. 1584.6 $1,616.37 $31.77 2.00%
TSLA Tesla Motors 234.93 $225.40 -$9.53 -4.06%
IYY iShares Dow Jones 473.25 $478.25 $5.00 1.06%
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 77.18 $77.04 -$0.14 -0.18%
AOA iShares Aggressiv 89.62 $91.01 $1.39 1.55%
twcux American Century 345.5 $343.30 -$2.20 -0.64%
k Kellogg Company C $62.02 $66.39 $4.37 7.05%
trib Trinity Biotech p $25.57 $24.80 -$0.77 -3.01%
cam Cameron Internati $63.38 $63.75 $0.37 0.58%
spy SPDR S&P 500 $1,677.24 $1,697.67 $20.43 1.22%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT $0.09 $0.09 $0.00 -1.67%
dvy iShares Select Di $72.25 $73.59 $1.34 1.85%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE $0.18 $0.16 -$0.03 -14.99%
erus iShares MSCI Russ $17.62 $18.17 $0.55 3.12%
#DIV/0!
$7,380.49 $7,400.70 $20.20 0.27%
Annualized Return 3.94%
^GSPC S&P 500 $1,858.83 $1,888.77 $29.94 1.61%
Annualized Return 23.19%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:14:57 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

It is weighted the way you had stated previously, i.e. ILMN you had said that you bought 2% of your portfolio. Therefore is was 2 X's the value of 1 share.
VDE you had said that you bought 4%, therefore 4 X's the value, etc.



Gotcha! The reason the entire account is up more than you calculate is that you do not include the dividends that I have already received. It will always be easy for me to calculate the portfolios total return as it started out pretty close to a round number.
steeldco
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:23:48 AM permalink
SOOPOO, got it. I set up my own table because I was interested in seeing how the individual picks performed.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
odiousgambit
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:24:01 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

rumor has it a sticks and stones fight has broken out



Do tell!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Face
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:25:08 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Face,
Below is a table of the portfolio. Did I do this correctly? What causes it to be centered instead of on the left side of the page?


Symbol Name Purchase Current Change % Change
YNDX Yandex N.V. 29.95 $30.46 $0.51 1.70%
FB Facebook 68.01 $59.49 -$8.52 -12.53%
AR Antero Resources 60.92 $66.08 $5.16 8.47%
CELG Celgene Corporati 303.7 $287.20 -$16.50 -5.43%
MA Mastercard Incorp 155.26 $149.06 -$6.20 -3.99%
DIS Walt Disney Compa 162.7 $163.38 $0.68 0.42%
CSCO Cisco Systems 21.53 $23.09 $1.56 7.25%
MO Altria Group 36.39 $37.59 $1.20 3.30%
VDE Vanguard Energy E 495.88 $520.64 $24.76 4.99%
SVA Sinovac Biotech 6.43 $7.12 $0.69 10.73%
ILMN Illumina 320.84 $296.88 -$23.96 -7.47%
TD Toronto Dominion 46.5 $46.72 $0.22 0.47%
BMO Bank Of Montreal 65.61 $66.90 $1.29 1.97%
COST Costco Wholesale 113.85 $111.70 -$2.15 -1.89%
GTAT GT Advanced Techn 17.34 $17.80 $0.46 2.65%
SCTY SolarCity Corpora 75 $60.50 -$14.50 -19.33%
RBL SPDR S&P Russia E 21.7 $23.15 $1.45 6.68%
MM Millennial Media 7.22 $6.99 -$0.23 -3.19%
BRK. BRK 617.7 $621.55 $3.85 0.62%
WWE World Wrestling E 30.53 $28.41 -$2.12 -6.94%
AAPL Apple Inc. 1584.6 $1,616.37 $31.77 2.00%
TSLA Tesla Motors 234.93 $225.40 -$9.53 -4.06%
IYY iShares Dow Jones 473.25 $478.25 $5.00 1.06%
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 77.18 $77.04 -$0.14 -0.18%
AOA iShares Aggressiv 89.62 $91.01 $1.39 1.55%
twcux American Century 345.5 $343.30 -$2.20 -0.64%
k Kellogg Company C $62.02 $66.39 $4.37 7.05%
trib Trinity Biotech p $25.57 $24.80 -$0.77 -3.01%
cam Cameron Internati $63.38 $63.75 $0.37 0.58%
spy SPDR S&P 500 $1,677.24 $1,697.67 $20.43 1.22%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT $0.09 $0.09 $0.00 -1.67%
dvy iShares Select Di $72.25 $73.59 $1.34 1.85%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE $0.18 $0.16 -$0.03 -14.99%
erus iShares MSCI Russ $17.62 $18.17 $0.55 3.12%
#DIV/0!
$7,380.49 $7,400.70 $20.20 0.27%
Annualized Return 3.94%
^GSPC S&P 500 $1,858.83 $1,888.77 $29.94 1.61%
Annualized Return 23.19%



Yeah, that's perfect. I can quote it exactly or post after it and it doesn't include my post as part of the table because you "closed" it with the backslash.

The tables automatically center on the page.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
steeldco
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April 4th, 2014 at 6:27:50 AM permalink
Thanks Face! I'll try not to forget how to in the future..........can't promise though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachbumbabs
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April 4th, 2014 at 11:15:34 AM permalink
Yay, CSCO!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
michael99000
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April 5th, 2014 at 3:50:50 PM permalink
CELG drops any further and it might become an attractive takeover target for a big pharma company.

With a single digit PE on their 2015 guidance, it's certainly not expensive. So either the future numbers they've forecasted aren't going to hold true, or the proverbial baby has been thrown out with the bath water here. Lots of biotechs had gotten to lofty inflated multiples, but IMO at least... CELG deserves to trade at some sort of premium.

Oh and...
They have the HIGHEST gross margins in the entire S&P 500.
SOOPOO
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April 5th, 2014 at 4:16:15 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

They have the HIGHEST gross margins in the entire S&P 500.



There is one company with the lowest PE ratio in the S&P 500. Another pays the highest dividend. Another has the highest earnings percentage increase the last 5 years. Another has the most new patents. Etc..... For whatever reason, aren't all these facts figured in to the price already? I'm assuming if you know about the gross margins, so does everybody!
By the way, my patent comment was a jab at myself, when I bought Lucent over a decade ago. A friend found out they had the most patent applications of any company..... Its down around 80% from when I bought it......
I hope you are right about CELG.... its in the portfolio for the long term....
steeldco
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April 6th, 2014 at 11:32:56 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

CELG drops any further and it might become an attractive takeover target for a big pharma company.

With a single digit PE on their 2015 guidance, it's certainly not expensive. So either the future numbers they've forecasted aren't going to hold true, or the proverbial baby has been thrown out with the bath water here. Lots of biotechs had gotten to lofty inflated multiples, but IMO at least... CELG deserves to trade at some sort of premium.

Oh and...
They have the HIGHEST gross margins in the entire S&P 500.



michael99000, check out the IBB index and you will why CELG, and many others, are taking it on the chin.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
michael99000
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April 6th, 2014 at 11:55:01 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

michael99000, check out the IBB index and you will why CELG, and many others, are taking it on the chin.



I realize that, my point is, the fundamentals and growth prospects at CELG are much better than those in the rest of the sector, and that includes REGN GILD and BIIB. Some of the best investments can be found when an entire sector is flushed. The biotech sector probably had bubbled, but CELG itself did not reach bubble status. The number of preclinical and phase 1-2 drugs at CELG is staggering, as well as some of the partnerships they've formed.
michael99000
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April 6th, 2014 at 11:57:17 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

There is one company with the lowest PE ratio in the S&P 500. Another pays the highest dividend. Another has the highest earnings percentage increase the last 5 years. Another has the most new patents. Etc..... For whatever reason, aren't all these facts figured in to the price already? I'm assuming if you know about the gross margins, so does everybody!
By the way, my patent comment was a jab at myself, when I bought Lucent over a decade ago. A friend found out they had the most patent applications of any company..... Its down around 80% from when I bought it......
I hope you are right about CELG.... its in the portfolio for the long term....



Among all the variables you listed, divs..pe..patents..etc, I'll take the higher gross margins ahead of all of them. The ability to sell something for way more than it costs you to make it has no substitute.
SOOPOO
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April 8th, 2014 at 7:36:52 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Among all the variables you listed, divs..pe..patents..etc, I'll take the higher gross margins ahead of all of them. The ability to sell something for way more than it costs you to make it has no substitute.



But doesn't that make you more vulnerable to competitors undercutting you?
The government getting pissed at how much the drugs cost and forcing you to lower the prices?
And the drop dead date of when a drug goes generic?

Anyway, after the last two overall down days, the portfolio is down around 2% from its inception....
odiousgambit
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April 8th, 2014 at 7:48:09 AM permalink
the market is waiting for some good news

you never know when it'll be some long drawn-out bear market

we should be comparing results to some index in that case [did it do better than the index?]

not sure what would be the best. Probably not the S&P 500, although that will do
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
michael99000
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April 9th, 2014 at 1:16:32 PM permalink
CELG top performer in the S&P today (as of 3pm ET anyway). Outperformed the biotech index as a whole... These patent issues are all nonsense. I'd actually rather not see them settle out of court because they're case is strong. But then again I don't know what the legal fees associated with a trial would be.

Either way, I added at $139ish and I'll buy one more time if this rally carries into tomorrow.
steeldco
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April 11th, 2014 at 7:32:01 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Neither am I, and neither is your brother in law.

I am making a bold statement there, but I am a strong believer in efficient markets and the random walk. Anyone trying to "time the market" or pick individual winning stocks is playing a losing game. Just like gambling, you can win big or you can lose big, but if you win big it's luck.

Does your bro-in-law do well?



It's looking more and more like the brother-in-law knows what he's doing. Yes?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
SOOPOO
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April 11th, 2014 at 11:55:25 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

It's looking more and more like the brother-in-law knows what he's doing. Yes?



Portfolio down around 3% from inception. We will only be able to tell if my brother-in-law was correct if he tells me when he would be re-investing. And the one stock he did give me, FB, is amongst the poorest performers. I am hoping not to need this account for many years, if ever, so I am willing to take the roller coaster ride....
odiousgambit
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April 11th, 2014 at 12:01:04 PM permalink
That we might go back down to the low around Jan/Feb, about 15370 Dow, could hardly be a surprise.

This has more of a feel of softness than that did then to me, but on the other hand right now we are still above 16000.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
steeldco
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April 11th, 2014 at 1:23:33 PM permalink
I've been calling for 1,675 on the S&P 500 for 2 quarters now. I was losing faith that we would get there and that I had liquidated a good part of the portfolio for no reason. In fact, my plan was to re-enter the market if we didn't get to, or if we weren't well on the road to that number by the end of April. I'm going to stick to that since I don't believe that the next window for a substantial drop will be until earnings reports in July of course assuming that there is no extraneous event such as war with Russia.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RaleighCraps
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April 11th, 2014 at 2:11:01 PM permalink
The DOW has been down during the summer for the last 4 years. The low has varied between May and August, but a re-entry slated for September is my target, depending of course on how the economy is doing. I still think we are very soft, and the only reason we are having any sort of run is market manipulation and the fed's policies, which can't go on like this.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
steeldco
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April 11th, 2014 at 3:04:42 PM permalink
The top 5 performers as of today:

AR Antero Resources 3.78%
CSCO Cisco Systems 4.32%
BMO Bank Of Montreal 4.19%
RBL SPDR S&P Russia E 5.25%
k Kellogg Company C 5.90%



The worst 5 performers as of today:

ILMN Illumina -15.70%
SCTY SolarCity Corpora -28.40%
WWE World Wrestling E -33.54%
ntek NANOTECH ENTAINMT -17.22%
cbis CANNABIS SCIENCE -39.89%



Compared to S&P 500:

Total Portfolio -3.70%
Annualized Return -41.63%
^GSPC S&P 500 -2.32%
Annualized Return -26.11%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
thecesspit
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April 23rd, 2014 at 1:28:25 PM permalink
Illumina recently shared there first quarter results : http://seekingalpha.com/article/2155913-illuminas-ceo-discusses-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript

27% year on year growth and 36% increase in sequencing revenues. There's lots of good news there, though the sucky part for SooPoo was he got in at a recent peak.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
SOOPOO
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April 23rd, 2014 at 4:55:44 PM permalink
The entire portfolio is only down around 1% from inception. Apparently AAPL will soar tomorrow on split news, buyback news, etc.... Part of the difficulty in you tracking it is the fact that I rounded the allocations to the nearest percent, but didn't put zero in as an option. As an example NTEK was really only .2%, not 1%. Also as I mentioned earlier dividends bolster its performance. DVY had a huge dividend soon after I bought it, as an example. I'm in ILMN for the long haul, so good news is good!
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