WoV stock portfolio
Quote: 100xOddsJim Cramer says chart analysts calls the top for the S&P 500:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/cramer-analyst-calls-a-top-in-the-sp-500-cruising-for-a-bruising.html
stocks will fall 10% soon, according to the expert.
this would be great for me.
while i wait for the fed to drop rates, the market falls.
after rates drop, my bonds will be worth more and stocks worth less.
sell bonds and go back into stocks.
sell high, buy low...
Glad I didn't listen to that 'expert'! Unless you consider a 7% GAIN in less than a month kind of like a 10% LOSS! It is so EASY for an 'expert' to throw out a prediction, one way or the other, and if it comes true yap on about all the 'signals' they saw, how their 'analysis' accurately predicted this..... And when they are 100% wrong they of course usually just say... NOTHING!
WoV portfolio now up 59%. More bond holdings at dismal 2% will cause me to lag the market if it keeps going up, but adds some safety if it does tank.
Quote: SOOPOOHit 60%. In less than 6 years. I'm looking for one more stock pick from the forum. Throw me some suggestions.
Wait for Tesla to drop to around 275 and go heavy. Or, if you are into shorts, do it now and cash in on the way down as well.
Been purchasing gold and bond etfs during this latest surge.
I already own Tesla. I also already own a gold mining stock. I won't buy a bond ETF. I prefer individual bonds, which I now own a bunch of.
I will consider increasing stake in Tesla or the gold stock.
i switched 6figures worth of 'total Stock market' mutual fund to corporate bonds because i thought the market would collapse because Trump.
right now, that bond fund is up 21% but the 'total stock market' fund is up 25%.
i gambled that the market would implode and i lost.
but i was saved with the Fed lowering the prime rate, which made bonds more valuable.
phew...
Quote: 100xOddsit's almost the end of the year.
i switched 6figures worth of 'total Stock market' mutual fund to corporate bonds because i thought the market would collapse because Trump.
right now, that bond fund is up 21% but the 'total stock market' fund is up 25%.
i gambled that the market would implode and i lost.
but i was saved with the Fed lowering the prime rate, which made bonds more valuable.
phew...
Yeah.... my individual bonds are up that same %. For me it is only a paper gain, as I plan on holding......
Overall portfolio up 61% from inception.....
I would not say you lost, by the way. If 6 figures means say, $200k, you made $42k instead of $50k. Won less..... not lost!
Edit: oops, I see you already have DIS in that list a couple pages back. Get more anyway, and hope you had a nice bump the last few months.
Quote: beachbumbabsMight be too late, but Disney is value-added since introduction of Disney+ streaming service last week. There's probably some upward movement left. They're also doing a major addition to both parks that should open (I think) this spring, Star Wars themed. They expect a major influx of park fans because it's the biggest add in more than a decade. The MCU has also proved very lucrative, as have the live-action reboots of Disney classic animations.
Edit: oops, I see you already have DIS in that list a couple pages back. Get more anyway, and hope you had a nice bump the last few months.
As the person who gave me Costco, which has doubled since your prognostication, I highly value your thoughts! I'm trying not to increase my percentage holdings in any one company other than by its own increase in value. I'm trying to continue my messy diversification. I still have enough cash for one more equity purchase. Still seeking advice!
Quote: SOOPOOEnded up buying BTI at $38.8. I don't understand why it is trading that low. At 38.8 it is paying 7% dividend, and has a pretty low PE ratio of around 11. Its a big company with a long history. Occasionally when I make an analysis I am missing something and it comes back to bite me! Time will tell.
I am disappointed in you. A former doctor investing in a tobacco company. Shame. I would be more likely to invest in RJ Reynolds with their dividend and I would guess a more stable investment.
Quote: DRichI am disappointed in you. A former doctor investing in a tobacco company. Shame. I would be more likely to invest in RJ Reynolds with their dividend and I would guess a more stable investment.
Mild correction. Not a FORMER doctor. If I die a senile blithering idiot I will still be a doctor. I do own Altria, which I think is the big competitor of RJR. I just googled it, and apparently BTI OWNS RJR!
I am not sure what my ethical standards are on this issue. I first owned a tobacco stock by accident. I bought a British conglomerate called Hanson which split off a part of it which was a tobacco company. I then decided as long as it was legal I would not divest because I detest smoking. If somehow smoking could be eliminated and my tobacco investments would be worth zero, I would be happy, not sad.
Quote: SOOPOOEnded up buying BTI at $38.8. I don't understand why it is trading that low. At 38.8 it is paying 7% dividend, and has a pretty low PE ratio of around 11. Its a big company with a long history. Occasionally when I make an analysis I am missing something and it comes back to bite me! Time will tell.
I think it is probably undervalued because of the industry. What future does tobacco have? Every year more people quit. When I buy a stock I want something that will be needed or used in the future. Some times we don't know that a product will be obsolete in the future and sometimes we can see the writing on the wall. Look at kodak film. It was huge and everyone had to get their film developed to see the picture. Great stock and look at today. Who gets film developed anymore. Stock sells for a bit over 2 dollars. I remember buying some and I paid 20 dollars for it. We could not see this happening because we did not not have the technology at that time. Iphones were not invented.
However we can see the into the future and tobacco does not look too promising. Does this mean it is a bad buy. No of course not but I would not make it a long term hold. Just my thoughts. (love the dividend though)
Quote: vegasI think it is probably undervalued because of the industry. What future does tobacco have? Every year more people quit. When I buy a stock I want something that will be needed or used in the future. Some times we don't know that a product will be obsolete in the future and sometimes we can see the writing on the wall. Look at kodak film. It was huge and everyone had to get their film developed to see the picture. Great stock and look at today. Who gets film developed anymore. Stock sells for a bit over 2 dollars. I remember buying some and I paid 20 dollars for it. We could not see this happening because we did not not have the technology at that time. Iphones were not invented.
However we can see the into the future and tobacco does not look too promising. Does this mean it is a bad buy. No of course not but I would not make it a long term hold. Just my thoughts. (love the dividend though)
Thanks. I sort of knew that. For a while tobacco stocks were trading at a discount because the next lawsuit was already priced in. Agree on 7% dividend. To buy a safe bond today you may barely get 2%.
Quote: DRichSoopoo, It looks like BTI is up over 12% in the last 30 days. I know you are in for the longterm, but 12% in 30 days is awesome.
I was going to post this, but thought no one would care! I truly believe I have NO stock picking ability over an average Joe. I DO believe my extreme diversification is the engine behind my success.
We shall see how I'm doing after the next election. I am moving some assets to REITs which are at least theoretically less correlated to the overall stock market.
Quote: SOOPOOI was going to post this, but thought no one would care! I truly believe I have NO stock picking ability over an average Joe. I DO believe my extreme diversification is the engine behind my success.
We shall see how I'm doing after the next election. I am moving some assets to REITs which are at least theoretically less correlated to the overall stock market.
About two weeks ago I bought some Chewy.com (CHWY). It is up 14% in two weeks. My track record suggests that it should freefall before I cash out.
Quote: billryanTessa is up almost 100 points since I recommended it. I didn't expect that.
That's awesome, I hope you bought a lot.
Quote: DRichThat's awesome, I hope you bought a lot.
No, I sold my latest bunch at 320. I buy at 260 and sell when it hits 300. It's been a very solid play for the last three years or so.
Quote: billryanNo, I sold my latest bunch at 320. I buy at 260 and sell when it hits 300. It's been a very solid play for the last three years or so.
You sound like my brother in law. He has identified a bunch (not that many, actually) of stocks that he has a trading range for. Buy at 95, sell at 100. Re-buy at 95. Re-sell at 100. I always ask him, "what if when you buy at 95 it goes down to 20?". He actually makes his living doing this now. I'd be way too nervous.
And thank you if you are the reason I bought Tesla. It's 406 now.
time to short oil this Mon?
Quote: SOOPOOYou sound like my brother in law. He has identified a bunch (not that many, actually) of stocks that he has a trading range for. Buy at 95, sell at 100. Re-buy at 95. Re-sell at 100. I always ask him, "what if when you buy at 95 it goes down to 20?". He actually makes his living doing this now. I'd be way too nervous.
And thank you if you are the reason I bought Tesla. It's 406 now.
I suggested it when you asked for recommendations, but I'm sure you looked into it yourself.
I don't make my living doing this. I bought 1,000 shares of Tesla literally pre-IPO.
Had I held them, it would be worth 400,000 or more. Instead, I sold half when it doubled, and half the remainder when it doubled again. Someone showed me what seemed like a regular cycle on Tesla and it's been " berry berry " good to me. The problem is as the stock rises, my investment buys fewer shares each cycle. I'm out and will be back in at 360. Rinse and repeat.
I used to be a strictly buy and hold guy and generally still am, but Tesla has so many irrational haters shorting the stock that it's a game.
Quote: billryanI suggested it when you asked for recommendations, but I'm sure you looked into it yourself.
I don't make my living doing this. I bought 1,000 shares of Tesla literally pre-IPO.
Had I held them, it would be worth 400,000 or more. Instead, I sold half when it doubled, and half the remainder when it doubled again. Someone showed me what seemed like a regular cycle on Tesla and it's been " berry berry " good to me. The problem is as the stock rises, my investment buys fewer shares each cycle. I'm out and will be back in at 360. Rinse and repeat.
I used to be a strictly buy and hold guy and generally still am, but Tesla has so many irrational haters shorting the stock that it's a game.
I’m not sure it’s irrational when you dig into it. There’s an old saw about the stock market: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
i just shorted oil at $60.30/barrel.Quote: 100xOddsnew options period just started.
time to short oil this Mon?
gambling that more US oil rigs will go online because of the high oil price.
unfortunately, because of xmas, the weekly US oil report is delayed till Fri after the bell.
edit:
on my stock screen, it says market price and u/l price.
both are giving me the same #.
what is u/l price? and how is it different than market price?
Quote: 100xOddsi just shorted oil at $60.30/barrel.
gambling that more US oil rigs will go online because of the high oil price.
unfortunately, because of xmas, the weekly US oil report is delayed till Fri after the bell.
edit:
on my stock screen, it says market price and u/l price.
both are giving me the same #.
what is u/l price? and how is it different than market price?
I hope it doesn't go down too much. One of my largest holdings is Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
Elon said he would take it private at this price.
well, if it falls below $60/barrel, the next support is $58.Quote: DRich
I hope it doesn't go down too much. One of my largest holdings is Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
He also recommended LYFT as a short term play but I couldn't convince myself to buy either LYFT or UBER.
Quote: 100xOddsi just shorted oil at $60.30/barrel.
gambling that more US oil rigs will go online because of the high oil price.
unfortunately, because of xmas, the weekly US oil report is delayed till Fri after the bell.
edit:
on my stock screen, it says market price and u/l price.
both are giving me the same #.
what is u/l price? and how is it different than market price?
I think this is what that means, from Investopedia:
What Does Underlying Mean?
Underlying, in equities, is the common stock that must be delivered when a warrant is exercised, or when a convertible bond or convertible preferred share is converted to common stock. The price of the underlying is the main factor that determines the prices of derivative securities, warrants, and convertibles. Thus, a change in an underlying result in a simultaneous change in the price of the derivative asset linked to it.
Quote: SOOPOO
He also recommended LYFT as a short term play but I couldn't convince myself to buy either LYFT or UBER.
I’m also on the fence about these 2 but also fear missing out like I did on Facebook. Looking at them it’s hard to see how they become profitable without raising rates. Also can see regulatory issues along with the potential for drivers to realize they are not making much after all the miles they are putting on their cars and demand more.
That said, ridership continues to grow and in some cities supply can’t keep up with demand. I find myself using it more and more everywhere I travel and do see rates increasing.
They probably have a place as speculation in a well balanced portfolio for someone who can handle the risk.
Merry Christmas.
sigh.. it breached the $61 resistance.Quote: 100xOddswell, if it falls below $60/barrel, the next support is $58.
next resistance is $63.
holding onto my short and placed an order to short more at $63.
my concern is saudi being biased in protecting their $2T IPO of Saudi Aramco and propping up the oil prices.
but if they are artificially forcing OPEC to keep oil prices high by cutting production for their IPO, why isnt the OPEC membership pushing back on clear conflict of interest?
Quote: 100xOddssigh.. it breached the $61 resistance.
next resistance is $63.
holding onto my short and placed an order to short more at $63.
my concern is saudi being biased in protecting their $2T IPO of Saudi Aramco and propping up the oil prices.
but if they are artificially forcing OPEC to keep oil prices high by cutting production for their IPO, why isnt the OPEC membership pushing back on clear conflict of interest?
IE, you are gambling on circumstantial situations you have no clue about.
Again GAMBLING is the key word. Unlike stocks, you have no indication of what is going on in the world.
Best wishes, or is it Good Luck?
god what a roller coaster ride the past 24hrs have been in shorting oil.Quote: BozIE, you are gambling on circumstantial situations you have no clue about.
Again GAMBLING is the key word. Unlike stocks, you have no indication of what is going on in the world.
Best wishes, or is it Good Luck?
iran missile attacks spiked oil prices, Trump tweets all is ok alleviates escalation fears and stabilizes prices, then the weekly govt report an hr ago saying oil inventories unexpectedly rose has dropped oil prices.
this is more fun than a slot machine.
come on Bonus round of a warm winter thanks to global warming.
edit:
oil down 4% today to $60/barrel.
even tho i see oil going down to $52/barrel by March, i sold my short on this huge 1 day drop.
i had enough 'fun' from this roller coaster (for now)
A friend of mine used to say, about this bull market, that if a nuclear bomb went off in San Francisco on Friday, by Tuesday the markets would have shrugged it off and been buying the dip like crazy.
Quote: MDawgInteresting how last night in the AH AMZN was down -43 and futures were -350 or so, and then today AMZN actually was green for a bit, and all the indexes are now green.
A friend of mine used to say, about this bull market, that if a nuclear bomb went off in San Francisco on Friday, by Tuesday the markets would have shrugged it off and been buying the dip like crazy.
I don't really follow AMZN, as I own 0 individually. Probably 100 shares via all my index funds! But agree. This bull market has seemed unstoppable. Tesla near $500. Apple over $300. FB over $200. Bad news has stocks drop 1/2%. To rebound 3/4% the next day. (Except my recent purchase, NBEV, bought at $1.95...... a few weeks later $1.70.....).
WoV portfolio now up 69% from inception.
We are a growth play without net income yet in our public history, but lots of revenue growth. Kind of like the early days of AMZN, except I don't think we'll have an AWS-type story to bring us to profitability. It will have to be on retail alone. Just don't google for Andrew Left's commentary :P
Not in your wheelhouse at all (no dividend), but if diversity is the name of the game, then here is some.
Quote: AcesAndEightsSOOPOO, if you are still looking for a new position, I would like to selfishly recommend my current employer, W
We are a growth play without net income yet in our public history, but lots of revenue growth. Kind of like the early days of AMZN, except I don't think we'll have an AWS-type story to bring us to profitability. It will have to be on retail alone. Just don't google for Andrew Left's commentary :P
Not in your wheelhouse at all (no dividend), but if diversity is the name of the game, then here is some.
What do you think will bring them to profitability? The economy is strong now and no profitability, do you see it getting stronger under poorer economic conditions?
Quote: DRichWhat do you think will bring them to profitability? The economy is strong now and no profitability, do you see it getting stronger under poorer economic conditions?
I could talk for hours about stuff our CEOs have said in response to this question, but most of it is confidential. Broadly we are in a good position to cut spending if necessary, mostly on advertising; the big question is what that will do to our revenue and new customer acquisition rate. And also broadly speaking, the home goods category tends to weather recessions better than other sectors.
Rumor has it that we were profitable before we went public, but the numbers from those years aren't public. The story goes that with easy investor money out there, leadership has ramped up focus on growth. Another data point, the US business is close to breakeven/a bit profitable. Most of the US profits are currently going into EU expansion (this is public knowledge).
There are plenty of red flags and I'm not a company homer, in fact I sell most of the shares I get as compensation. I keep a few, because I worked at Amazon from 2006-2010 and sold all of my AMZN shares at prices between $50 and $170. It is absolutely the rational position to not hold stock in your own employer, which is why I sell most of them. But my AMZN experience has given me a ton of FOMO in this regard, so I hold on to enough that if we blow up, I'll at least be part of the party.
I wouldn't try to sell the stock to an average investor. But since SOOPOO has this grand experiment going on, I think it would make a good component.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI could talk for hours about stuff our CEOs have said in response to this question, but most of it is confidential. Broadly we are in a good position to cut spending if necessary, mostly on advertising; the big question is what that will do to our revenue and new customer acquisition rate. And also broadly speaking, the home goods category tends to weather recessions better than other sectors.
Rumor has it that we were profitable before we went public, but the numbers from those years aren't public. The story goes that with easy investor money out there, leadership has ramped up focus on growth. Another data point, the US business is close to breakeven/a bit profitable. Most of the US profits are currently going into EU expansion (this is public knowledge).
There are plenty of red flags and I'm not a company homer, in fact I sell most of the shares I get as compensation. I keep a few, because I worked at Amazon from 2006-2010 and sold all of my AMZN shares at prices between $50 and $170. It is absolutely the rational position to not hold stock in your own employer, which is why I sell most of them. But my AMZN experience has given me a ton of FOMO in this regard, so I hold on to enough that if we blow up, I'll at least be part of the party.
I wouldn't try to sell the stock to an average investor. But since SOOPOO has this grand experiment going on, I think it would make a good component.
Thank you, and I understand the confidentiality involved.
When wil Amazon be buying you?
Quote: DRichWhen wil Amazon be buying you?
LOL, I think we're too big/expensive. More likely they will try to put us out of business. So far, they haven't really gone to war.
That being said, stockholders (including myself as noted) would make out great I'm sure. So I wouldn't be upset if it happened. Also I happened to like working for Amazon, so I wouldn't be opposed to doing it again as part of an acquisition.
Quote: SOOPOOEnded up buying BTI at $38.8. I don't understand why it is trading that low. At 38.8 it is paying 7% dividend, and has a pretty low PE ratio of around 11. Its a big company with a long history. Occasionally when I make an analysis I am missing something and it comes back to bite me! Time will tell.
It's a month and only up 17%! Lagging behind my Tesla! The NBEV shot up today, was up like 30% at one point because....... Kendall Jenner drinks them..... Went from 1.60 to 2.35 then fell back to 1.90. It's what I hate about the stock market. Ridiculous over reactions both ways.
Up 71%. Probably buy a few more bonds for safety. Also put a tad more in the private equity REITs. I'll be in Vegas in a few days. Why does a $100 win in Vegas just feel better than a $10k upswing in the portfolio?
Edit. I don't have any cash right now to pick stocks. Wayfair lost nearly a $billion last year? I'll consider it next time I plan to buy a stock.
Portfolio now up 70% after big drop yesterday.
Quote: SOOPOOI bought a very small position in NIO. I did so because my wife's daughter suggested it. I got it at $4.17. She suggested it when it was $3.70. She liked the way the prototype looked, and also felt that Chinese companies are the wave of the future. The other stock I bought on her recommendation was SNAP. Its been pretty flat since I bought it, up a few percent.
Portfolio now up 70% after big drop yesterday.
NIO up 11% today. Now 4.51
Of note I had 61 shares of Tesla. Has around DOUBLED the past week. Sold 11 shares today at $940. I like owning an even number of shares.
It makes no sense, actually. They make cars. And they don't sell that many.
I like concept of BTI. Now 44.74. They sell cigarettes. They sell enough to make a big profit. Price makes sense to me.
Portfolio now up 73% since inception.
Earnings on 2/14, hoping it breaks through $34 this quarter on earnings or current momentum.
