WoV stock portfolio
cant wait.Quote: unJonLooks like market set for a bloodbath tomorrow.
im 50% cash. will spend some of it increasing my international fund allocation in my portfolio at market close tomorrow.
then i dont have to think about for the rest of my life except for annual rebalance.
with all the casinos shutting down in the US, i'm going to try to short this.Quote: TigerWuYes, you want BJK, VanEck. Trading at $28 right now.
but i got this warning from my brokerage:
This security is "hard-to-borrow."
if the market keeps going down, I'll still be buying
1.) Palladium has lost its premium to Gold that was as high as $1000. Both are now trading within US$5 of 1470.
2.) The NYSE Average (^NYA) ripped through the "psychological" barrier of 10,000 and is currently in the low 9700's.
3.) My watchlist pick WY was halted 30 minutes, opeened at 10AM, and tanked to $17.50, right now its found a balance around $18.30
4.) Other pick of OHI has tanked -$5 to $21.50 ish
And Happy Hour (morning) is coming to a close.
Regards
Suited89
In simple English, if your bank can get federal funds for 0% interest, why would they pay you anything?Quote: SOOPOOcan someone explain to me what 'fed funds rate of zero' means in simple English?
the 2 yr treasuries are said to track the fed fund rate closely
the longer term treasuries: you don't know, but of course the change tends to knock them lower
not an expert on this
Quote: SOOPOO
can someone explain to me what 'fed funds rate of zero' means in simple English?
The very dumbed down explanation is that it is now cheaper to borrow money, i.e. get a loan, and this in theory is supposed to encourage spending, which in turn stimulates the economy.
Quote: SOOPOO
I think the smart ones are expecting Ford to go bankrupt.
Having recently bought my first Ford, I can only say that they deserve to. Twice.
As for Ford, big gamble, and not investment-grade either. Their recent 'redesigns' are a 4-wheeled turd. No word on electric offerings in months. They might already have the proverbial fork stuck in them.
And the Dow Jones tanked 3000 +/- 1 point.
Regards
Suited89
Dow down 30% YTD.
Nasdaq down 24% YTD.
Quote: TigerWuS&P down almost 27% YTD.
Dow down 30% YTD.
Nasdaq down 24% YTD.
#Winning
The five largest single day percentage drops for the Dow were:
10/19/1987 22.6%
Today 12.9%
10/28/1929 12.8%
10/29/1929 11.7%
4 days ago 10.0%
The worst day of the 2008 crisis is not in the top ten.
It took 16 days (trading sessions) to go from the Feb-19 market high to a bear market (down 20%). This is the fastest drop ever...even the 1929 crash took about 30 days to do that. During the 2008 crisis, it took about 180 days. I say “about” because I’m reading off a chart.
Without meaning to state the obvious, this is not a typical sell-off. It is the fastest one in history
redactedQuote: FaceHaving recently bought my first Ford, I can only say that they deserve to. Twice.
He has basically been saying for at least a month that it was risky to "buy the dips" when the market first started acting abnormally, this dip-buying having been a popular way to deal with an ever upward moving stock market. Of course he was right about that.
He has said also that if the market dipped as low as 30% off its highs that it would be time to re-evaluate that. So that is due now and we'll have to stay tuned. If you miss the show, you can search you-tube using "CNBC el-erian"
check out this one,
so now buy on dips? (instead of waiting for 3 up days and then dollar cost avg with 3 big buys?)Quote: odiousgambitMohamed A. El-Erian is a very respected and frequent, popular guest on CNBC . The hosts clearly hold him in high regard - this regard has recently been magnified by the on-the-money advice he's been doling out during this financial downswing.
He has basically been saying for at least a month that it was risky to "buy the dips" when the market first started acting abnormally, this dip-buying having been a popular way to deal with an ever upward moving stock market. Of course he was right about that.
He has said also that if the market dipped as low as 30% off its highs that it would be time to re-evaluate that. So that is due now and we'll have to stay tuned. If you miss the show, you can search you-tube using "CNBC el-erian"
also, i bought $1000 of the Vanguard small cap value etf (VBR) when it dropped to $88 a couple of days ago. (bogleheads seem to love small cap value, at least a few years ago ago when i was last on their site.)
it's now $83.
i've set my acct to buy $1000 more when it drops 20% to $70.
i'll keep buying on 20% dips so $56 after that.
this is in an after tax acct. it's an etf, so it should be tax efficient?
I like to buy on any dips now. the posted was the last word from El-Erian I think.Quote: 100xOddsso now buy on dips? (instead of waiting for 3 up days and then dollar cost avg with 3 big buys?)
I haven't heard ETFs are anymore tax efficientQuote:i've set my acct to buy $1000 more when it drops 20% to $70.
i'll keep buying on 20% dips so $56 after that.
this is in an after tax acct. it's an etf, so it should be tax efficient?
Quote: odiousgambitI like to buy on any dips now. the posted was the last word from El-Erian I think.
I haven't heard ETFs are anymore tax efficientQuote:i've set my acct to buy $1000 more when it drops 20% to $70.
i'll keep buying on 20% dips so $56 after that.
this is in an after tax acct. it's an etf, so it should be tax efficient?
dow +/- 1000 points is the new norm now.
dow went under 20k for the 2nd time this week but didn't stay there.
this is a double bottom. usually, it means a signal to buy, at least short term.
18989 :o
Double bottom? More like the 10th “bottom” in the past 3 weeks.Quote: 100xOddsand another 4digit swing day.
dow +/- 1000 points is the new norm now.
dow went under 20k for the 2nd time this week but didn't stay there.
this is a double bottom. usually, it means a signal to buy, at least short term.
If current trend continues, market should dead cat bounce tomorrow about 1/3 of today’s loss. Then crash again the following day.
Quote: Ace2Double bottom? More like the 10th “bottom” in the past 3 weeks.
If current trend continues, market should dead cat bounce tomorrow about 1/3 of today’s loss. Then crash again the following day.
I wonder how much new investors are responsible for the increases. When the markets first took such a giant hit, I got my account and wasn't able to use my money for 3 days. These delays on money could have something to do with the ups. It's almost like if you see a great fall or a great rise, in 3 days there will be another one or the opposite. Cannot be the whole reason, but maybe some partial explanation. New traders make a lot of mistakes, think focusing on myopic focuses, ignoring big pictures and the truths they know.
Goldman Sachs Lays Out The 6 Conditions For A Market Bottom:Quote: 100xOddsso now buy on dips? (instead of waiting for 3 up days and then dollar cost avg with 3 big buys?)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stay-defensive-now-goldman-lays-out-6-conditions-market-bottom
1. A stabilization or flattening out of the infection rate curve in the US and Europe.
2. Visibility on the depth and duration of disruptions on the economy.
3. Sufficiently large global stimulus.
4. A mitigation of funding and liquidity stresses.
5. Deep undervaluation across major assets and position reduction.
6. No intensification of other tail risks.
um.. i think i'll just use my '3up days' sign instead...
Quote: SOOPOONow up around 35% from inception. Around 6 years. Around 5% annual rate of return. Funny thing is.... if you had told me 6 years ago I'd be up 35% I would have said 'great'! Not exactly happy with the path to have gotten here.
You knew going in stocks are roller coaster. Remember that no matter how scary the coaster is, the only ones that get hurt are those who jump off mid-ride.
If you liked a company before, you'll like it more after the government gives it a few billion.
well, it looks like today is the 3rd up day in a row.Quote: 100xOddsum.. i think i'll just use my '3up days' sign instead...
going to be buying some total stock market at close
Quote: billryanI bought some ATT yesterday and if the rally last until tomorrow afternoon, I will buy more. I'm not at all convinced this is the bottom.
Agree. I think when each company announces its 2nd quarter 'earnings', the true scope of this economic disaster will come into focus. My state, New York, will be a particular disaster. NY counts on tax revenue from income..... that will be way down. NY taxes my capital gains.... that will be way down. NY gets hotel tax, theater tax, subway fares.... all diminished to close to nil. The hospitals will need billions. I have been saying all along that the economic impact of this will be far worse than our leaders or the media are leading us to believe.
When someone factors in the 5-10 trillion we are adding to the deficit....
I agree. You don’t have to be an economist to know that if the shutdown continues, we are going to see unprecedented unemployment, GDP contraction, bankruptcies etc. Social unrest probably isn’t that far out.Quote: SOOPOO. I think when each company announces its 2nd quarter 'earnings', the true scope of this economic disaster will come into focus
.
I have been saying all along that the economic impact of this will be far worse than our leaders or the media are leading us to believe. .
But why isn’t this priced into the market? If it was, the Dow would be well under 10,000 already. Wall Street has way more intel than we do...maybe they know something we don’t? Like they’re betting on the business restrictions ending very soon
The Fed has been intervening but a collapse can only be temporarily deferred if it’s going happen
IMHO, the immediate gains in the past 3-5 trading days are expected to vanish in the next 3-5 trading days.
Suited89
Quote: Suited89I agree, the worst has not passed. Note to investors the recent stock market can best be described as 'window dressing', with Quad witching and 'quarterly-rebalance' in starring roles.
IMHO, the immediate gains in the past 3-5 days are expected to vanish in the next 3-5 days.
Suited89
Agree. Today I’d bet Dow sheds 1000. There are some companies that will come back fine. But there are enough that this might signal the end. I think my Ford bond is now considered a junk bond.
I've actually heard whispers that this is a consolidation of huge proportions, by huge companies that can survive vs. those that can't. I agree with that rumor, as ultimately, that is what the end is, a redesigned business/financial/economic landscape, the literal wheat and chaff.
Regards
Suited89
I retired 9/1/2019. There will be no deposits or withdrawals from the WoV stock portfolio. The value of this portfolio is essentially UNCHANGED from 9/1/2019 to 4/17/2020.
It is my best performing stock/bond portfolio. My overall value of all stuff is down around 3%.
Funny thing, if someone would have told me on September 1 there would be a slight decrease in the market by mid April I would have been totally accepting of it, and not really think much of it.
How different the way it happened was!
Quote: SOOPOOWoV portfolio up 52% from inception. I don't pay attention specifically, but likely lags 'the market' due to me buying bonds over the last 2-3 years. I buy individual bonds, not funds, so I get a locked in return assuming I keep them to maturity.
Dug back and found this post. Up 56% from inception now, so up around 3% since August 13. How is it possible the market is up today when compared to August 13? As I ponder this all...... Had I been in a cave since August 13, and came out to have my portfolio up a few percent I wouldn't even give it any thought....
Wife has been advising me recently.... Bought GLD.... up 10%..... SCI..... even... AMGN.... up a few percents Abott.... up 15%!
Bought PSX from rec from B in Law... up 20%!
Bought more O..... when it dropped below 50 couldn't resist. Up 8%.....
Just bought HON and MMM today.... wife thinks N-95 mask makers are about to explode in sales....
Also bought BUG.... because son is the entomologist!
All this UP stuff does not make up for my panic sale of VOO (S &P 500 ETF) on the way down......
Also, lots of my bonds are maturing or being called, and are being replaced with ones that pay far less interest.
Full Story at Yahoo! Finance
if you google Spne, the top result is the Wiki of Subgame perfect equilibrium.
What is Subgame perfect equilibrium you ask?
In game theory, a subgame perfect equilibrium is a refinement of a Nash equilibrium used in dynamic games.
it goes perfectly with this forum.
Quote: 100xOddsi want to buy SPNE (SeaSpine Holdings Corporation) for this dumb reason:
if you google Spne, the top result is the Wiki of Subgame perfect equilibrium.
What is Subgame perfect equilibrium you ask?
In game theory, a subgame perfect equilibrium is a refinement of a Nash equilibrium used in dynamic games.
it goes perfectly with this forum.
I bought 100 of SPNE on your recommendation.
Quote: SOOPOONow at its all time high of up 52% from inception. Disney run up put it over the top.
2 have more than tripled WWE, MA
5 have more than doubled AAPL,, FB, CSCO, COST, ILMN
And then there is NTEK.....
14 months ago...... Portfolio was up 52% from inception...... Today up 62% from inception...... Uneventful 14 months...????????
I think not!!!!!
Their drug Leronlimab is being clinically tried for Covid-19 treatment as you know from my other thread.
Ihad purchased 1300 shares a few weeks ago.
Friday I added another 2000
Company giving a comprehensive update June 2 at 12:30pm.Quote: darkozI recommend Cydy Cytodyn.
Their drug Leronlimab is being clinically tried for Covid-19 treatment as you know from my other thread.
Ihad purchased 1300 shares a few weeks ago.
Friday I added another 2000
Quote: SOOPOOI did not buy CYDY, but did buy MRNA. It's down 10% since I bought it....... I know people involved in the Leronlimab trial and would guess it would border on insider trading if I bought some. I'm guessing whatever rumors I've heard will be public in less than an hour.
Holy crap I do remember you saying something to that effect on the other thread.
I totally forgot.
Well, I applaud you for your integrity.
Quote: darkozHoly crap I do remember you saying something to that effect on the other thread.
I totally forgot.
Well, I applaud you for your integrity.
It may be more "I don't want to go to jail" and less "integrity!" But seriously, all it was was second hand.... from the colleague who said "I heard that it is looking good". This is just from another Dr. at the hospital, not even one of the investigators.
The concept of 'insider trading' is really complicated for me. Brokers who make recommendations use 'research' that to me often sounds like insider trading.
By the way, TSLA is around $900 again. I have a deal with wifey that if it hits $1,000, she gets some ludicrously expensive purse or shoes. I'm hoping for a peak at $999.........
Did the company give any update? Google search didn’t turn it up and stock looks flat for day.Quote: darkozHoly crap I do remember you saying something to that effect on the other thread.
I totally forgot.
Well, I applaud you for your integrity.
Quote: unJonDid the company give any update? Google search didn’t turn it up and stock looks flat for day.
Yes. Primarily business side since still no clinical data as that is double-blinded placebo.
As to trials, we they have passed the 50 patients enrollment for both mild/moderate sick and severe.
Mild/moderate was for 75. 58 enrolled and hard date set for unblinding wherever they are of June 15. I understand there is an independent clinical trial company (since both patients and doctors are blinded) that hold the "keys". Once they are told to unblinded, they will show who received what. They said two weeks to digest the info so by July 1st expect it in FDA hands.
For severe 51 out of 390 patients enrolled. They had a 50 members interim report so something expected from that soon.
Intuitively it would seem easier to enroll severe but that has proven harder to do.
Patients dying don't want to have a chance at getting a placebo. They are more apt to pick drugs under compassionate use(where they definitely get the drug)
There are also lots of trials to choose from
Due to the seriousness lots of paperwork required to enroll. A few people passed away after approval but before they could be started on the regimen
You get the idea
But the 15th of June is a hard date voted by the board to unblinded so looking good.
Expect short attacks to drop the price so they can get out
This could be a fit for my portfolio, but I'm a little worried about the ~150% payout ratio. Should I be?Quote: ParadigmIf you have any cash, I would pick up some OKE @ $39-$40 level today. I believe they will maintain their current 9.5% dividend rate and you will also get appreciation back up to the $60 level. It is a Nat Gas play, so if you are fossil fuel averse, then it may not be a good fit.
Quote: ParadigmIf you have any cash, I would pick up some OKE @ $39-$40 level today. I believe they will maintain their current 9.5% dividend rate and you will also get appreciation back up to the $60 level. It is a Nat Gas play, so if you are fossil fuel averse, then it may not be a good fit.
This looks like a very solid play since their horrid week in early March. Too bad we just missed the ex dividend date which was 4/24. Did you have the stock then and did they pay out close to 10%?
Quote: ParadigmIf you have any cash, I would pick up some OKE @ $39-$40 level today. I believe they will maintain their current 9.5% dividend rate and you will also get appreciation back up to the $60 level. It is a Nat Gas play, so if you are fossil fuel averse, then it may not be a good fit.
I used to own OKE! Reason I sold is it is not like regular stocks. They treat you like a real owner, giving you an actual K-1 that you need to file with your tax return. It was a (minor) pain in the ass. Some of the dividend is return of principal, some of it is not taxable, etc.... I had 3 stocks like that and I sold them all. Not worth the effort.
