WoV stock portfolio
Quote: SOOPOOIf I'm asking strangers on the internet for a pick, you must surmise my risk tolerance is high! But if you can give me a 'safe' stock that will give me 10% a year I'd take that. I don't believe such a stock exists, by the way. If it will easily make 10% a year...then it is not valued appropriately today.
For the two previous suggestions... I already own Citibank, and have done horribly in it! Probably my value is 20% of what I paid.....
I also own a gold stock (RING) which has about doubled from my purchase date.
So WMW.... I may split and buy both your suggestions.... The safe 10%er.... and the risky one that may double or go bust. So what are these two equities?
A couple more vaccine stocks which I am in , in addition to nvax, mrna, codx, and ino, which I mentioned before.... I told you a few weeks back that I was in vaccine stocks that were under 1 billion market cap and trading under 10. Here you go.... srne and dvax. srne has now broken into the teens and dvax will soon follow. We have a few more months (4-6 months) for these stocks before the sector dissipates along with the virus after the top 3 vaccines are proven to be effective and safe. Those are my home run shots. Already had multiple grand slams with the others mentioned.
As far as more stable but a modest 10%.... that is such a low milestone to shoot for in this market!... but I am in the obvious FANG stocks... although apple is now reaching 2 trillion, i took major profits there. In addition to those Im in nvda, zoom, msft, pypl, to name a few... all of which are safe (in my opinion) with more room to grown given the market conditions, low interest rates, strong balance sheets and in sectors which are conducive to our daily lives during this virus.... computers, microchips, online enterprise, digital cash, etc..... to be anywhere else is just foolish. I stay away from banks in this environment.
Until there is a hint of a fed raise in interest rates, or another crazy slew of deaths from pandemic, or the dems take the oval office... i foresee the market to continue to uptick, with great emphasis on the aforementioned.
Quote: SOOPOOThanks WMW. I’lllook those upTomorrow and figure out which I’m going to buy!
No problem. Glad to help. You have always been a good dude to me here.
I manage much higher gains but I'm not controlling billions. It's one thing to book even 1000 shares of AMZN or TSLA at a time for a gain, quite another to try to multiply that times 100.
Quote: MDawgIf you are able to run a fund that averages more than 10 - 11% per year (the average rate of the S&P 500 since 1932 inception to 2018), billions of dollars will flock to you. Easier said than done.
I manage much higher gains but I'm not controlling billions. It's one thing to book even 1000 shares of AMZN or TSLA at a time for a gain, quite another to try to multiply that times 100.
You are correct. Actually, hedge funds are happy to return 5% to their clients.... of course after they rake in their fees and commissions regardless of what their return is. In this market, if they are not returning at least 20% for their clients , I would hope they get fired.
There you go, million dollar advise on my stock plays for free. GL! You will NEVER see companies move so rapidly in such a short period of time as you are seeing now with the vaccine companies. I know the space, the players, and have done the research. Get it before its too late. At this point much of the movement is hype and hope... ride that wave before one company posts bad clinical studies. NVAX is passing MRNA in the horse race. SRNE is particularly interesting because of their oral antibody asset. If they have successful studies, this company will go through the roof and be bought out by the big dogs! DVAX has multiple partnerships in addition to an approved drug, HBV vaccine, which alone should have the stock at over 20. One of their partners is one ofthe largest vaccine companies in China. Im inclined to believe that the Chinese already have the secret sauce for the vaccine, since it originated in their lab... just sayin!
https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/
it went up just shy of 400% the next day, (and went down again Tuesday but back to about the high today). Still just pennies, but a lot of pennies can add up to a lot of $$ too.
Some of these are at best one-hit-wonders or just outright losers, but quite a few of them have other products as well that may come through at some point in the future.
But yea, many will wilt away.
If you don't check your stocks frequently during the day you probably want to keep a stop-loss on lest you lose it all when it falls like a rock.
Quote: WatchMeWin
Until there is a hint of a fed raise in interest rates, or another crazy slew of deaths from pandemic, or the dems take the oval office... i foresee the market to continue to uptick, with great emphasis on the aforementioned.
Additionally, another thing to watch out for is whether or not the dems will sign a second relief bill. Im not so sure they will do so because they want the economy to tank before the election. If there are problems getting a second relief bill passed, then sell everything! Wait for another entry point.... because the markets will take a big hit if this happens.
OK so far as it's expressing an opinion of what might happen, BUT...Quote: WatchMeWinAdditionally, another thing to watch out for is whether or not the dems will sign a second relief bill. Im not so sure they will do so...
This is a politically charged statement and over-steps the no politics rule.Quote:because they want the economy to tank before the election.
No penalty on this occasion, but please be mindful in future posts. That goes to any who might want to support or contradict such opinions.
Thank you.
Those massive increases in the money supply are weakening the dollar.Quote: WatchMeWin.... because the markets will take a big hit if this happens.
The only reason this market is higher is because the value of the dollar is plunging. It’s certainly not due to a strong economy, or strong profits. A weaker dollar means it costs more to purchase things. Including stocks and gold.
Take a look at this chart. DXY is the dollar index. Toggle the search box between Gold and Dow. When the dollar was high on March 20th, the Dow was below 19,000. Now that the dollar is weak, the Dow his high. The graphs show a near perfect inverse. Same for gold.
The price of gold should be falling due to lower demand.
Demand for gold is way down this year. Gold jewelry sales are down 46%. Demand for gold bars and coin is down 17% to an eleven year low. Central banks have bought 39% less gold this year, than last.
Due to the falling dollar, the price of gold is up $600 per ounce since mid-March. Again, a near perfect inverse of the dollar index graph.
Quote: TankoThose massive increases in the money supply are weakening the dollar.
The only reason this market is higher is because the value of the dollar is plunging. It’s certainly not due to a strong economy, or strong profits. A weaker dollar means it costs more to purchase things. Including stocks and gold.
Take a look at this chart. DXY is the dollar index. Toggle the search box between Gold and Dow. When the dollar was high on March 20th, the Dow was below 19,000. Now that the dollar is weak, the Dow his high. The graphs show a near perfect inverse. Same for gold.
The price of gold should be falling due to lower demand.
Demand for gold is way down this year. Gold jewelry sales are down 46%. Demand for gold bars and coin is down 17% to an eleven year low. Central banks have bought 39% less gold this year, than last.
Due to the falling dollar, the price of gold is up $600 per ounce since mid-March. Again, a near perfect inverse of the dollar index graph.
While a weaker dollar does contribute to a stronger market, it is certainly not the only reason the market has gone up. Interest rates getting cut and staying low is a huge reason the market has gone up. In addition, prior to the virus, unemployment was under 4%... and people were spending which was good for the economy and corporate america. Companies were thriving and making their numbers. Keeping their books lean and clean. US Market is the best and safest place to invest your money... International funds were abundant.
Ok, then the virus hit. The market dropped significantly at no fault to the American people, corporations, or workforce. We took the hit and the administration came through with stimulus.. and lots of it. People could not go out and spend... so they put it in the stock market.... the smart ones anyway. Here we stand now waiting on a second stimulus package... this is what will decide whether or not the market will continue to uptick for the near future.
Those graphs are near opposite images of each other.Quote: WatchMeWinWhile a weaker dollar does contribute to a stronger market, it is certainly not the only reason the market has gone up.
We’re witnessing historic losses for the US dollar in purchasing power. A plummeting dollar creates an inflated stock market effect. A weak dollar does not contribute to what you think is a ‘stronger market’. This is an inflated market.
Quote:Interest rates getting cut and staying low is a huge reason the market has gone up.
Cutting interest rates only allows corporations to borrow at lower interest rates to buy back their shares with ever weakening dollars.
The stock market tumbled when the Fed cut interest rates in March.
The Dow fell 280 points in June, when the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero.
The next stimulus will further weaken the dollar and inflate the market even more.
Where did you get that?Quote:People could not go out and spend... so they put it in the stock market.... the smart ones anyway.
Nearly half the population is without a job. 32% of Americans missed their housing payments in July. 44% fear they won’t be able to afford to buy food.
Do you really think they’re buying stocks?
I won't add to this.
Getting back to the topic, I favor Amazon and Gold.
Quote: TankoThose graphs are near opposite images of each other.
We’re witnessing historic losses for the US dollar in purchasing power. A plummeting dollar creates an inflated stock market effect. A weak dollar does not contribute to what you think is a ‘stronger market’. This is an inflated market.
Cutting interest rates only allows corporations to borrow at lower interest rates to buy back their shares with ever weakening dollars.
The stock market tumbled when the Fed cut interest rates in March.
The Dow fell 280 points in June, when the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero.
The next stimulus will further weaken the dollar and inflate the market even more.
Where did you get that?
Nearly half the population is without a job. 32% of Americans missed their housing payments in July. 44% fear they won’t be able to afford to buy food.
Do you really think they’re buying stocks?
I won't add to this.
Getting back to the topic, I favor Amazon and Gold.
You can't be serious stating that even with the fed cut in March that the market went down. We had a GLOBAL PANDEMIC!!!! There is nothing on earth or in this galaxy that would have prevented the market from tanking!!!
Additionally, prior to the pandemic, AMERICANS WERE WORKING!! Everyone was happy working and making money. Spending , investing, traveling, eating good. All Americans.. Black, Hispanic , etc. Unemployment ant record lows. Manufacturing brought back to the US. I talked to sooo many people of all races who were happy to be working like never before... even two jobs.
Yes, people were signing up for new brokerage accounts during pandemic and using pandemic money to invest in the market. Do your research and look at the record new accounts in the second quarter with Robinhood, Schwab, ETrade, TD Ameritrade.
Yes, I agree.. Amazon and Gold are good plays. So, what is your point..
Quote: WatchMeWinA couple more vaccine stocks which I am in , in addition to nvax, mrna, codx, and ino, which I mentioned before.... I told you a few weeks back that I was in vaccine stocks that were under 1 billion market cap and trading under 10. Here you go.... srne and dvax. srne has now broken into the teens and dvax will soon follow. We have a few more months (4-6 months) for these stocks before the sector dissipates along with the virus after the top 3 vaccines are proven to be effective and safe. Those are my home run shots. Already had multiple grand slams with the others mentioned.
SRNE up substantially in one week since I told you. When I said it was certainly conceivable to make 100% or more with these vaccine stocks, I wasnt kidding. DVAX has yet to make its move but, Im in both as well as the other ones I mentioned.
Quote: SOOPOOSold 5 of Tesla this morning at 1650. I've thought about the many suggestions given to me, but I am probably way overweighted in COFID-19 type stocks. Have MRNA, AZN, ABT, JNJ, PFE, and a few more I can't remember now that are all working on vaccines or therapeutics. So I bought a company LYB, which is Great Britain based. Seems like a 'regular' value company that pays a decent dividend and won't go up too much, but shouldn't tank either. Is down 20-30% from its pre -COVID 19 high.
Glad I sold at 1650 instead of 2200 (not!) And bought a stock that went down immediately after I bought it (not!)
But portfolio hit +90% from inception today. Of my 5 separate portfolios the WoV one is by far my best performer. Having TSLA, AAPL, FB, and COST in one portfolio and not in any of the others might explain it......
I think the market is up largely because of how ridiculously low interest rates are. I think there is some term I don't remember that discusses when a company pays more in annual dividend than if you bought a new bond it is issuing, and that is happening quite frequently now. So money that often would (should?) leave the market stays in stocks. I think if I could get safe medium or long term bonds at even 3% I'd be doing so. At less than 1% I just can't get my head around it.
Quote: MDawgI thought I read that TSLA would not trade in today's AH or Monday morning's pre? due to the split that is set to happen after the close today. But as I look at my Level II I see action going on, and the prices reflected are pre-split. Also I have the same number of shares have not increased yet.
I thought that it trades at pre split price until the open on August 31. I virtually never trade pre or post so I’m not concerned.
Problem for me is I now have extra cash. So I buy something else that tends to underperform TSLA....
Quote: SOOPOOPost split after hours just sold 25 of 175 shares at $510. It’s $513 now!!! My B in Law thinks floor will fall out. He is buying puts tomorrow at a price target of 430 for November.
Problem for me is I now have extra cash. So I buy something else that tends to underperform TSLA....
B in Law made $2k on his puts. Obviously he sold well before the bottom which was 330 or so. I bought 30 shares at $344, and just sold today at $405, so $1830 profit! I have to remind myself I could just as easily have lost that or more.
The stock I bought to replace the TSLA long term shares is LYB. It's up nearly 10% since then! Also bought some TLRY on B in Law recommendation.... down 10% in the last week......
Full portfolio was up 89% before last Thursday and Friday. Now up 85%.
Quote: SOOPOOThe stock I bought to replace the TSLA long term shares is LYB.
NYSE lists a company with that stock symbol, so I assume that's the same one. Plastics, chemicals, refining. Nice dividends. Would have been a great buy around the 3rd week in March. Might still be good of course, I wouldn't know, but 2018 was its heyday.
What made you look into it?
Given that the first half (or so) of this article focuses on casino stock valuations throughout the year, this seems as good a thread as any to slap a link:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/corona-crashes-casinos/
It's a bit long, but covers some different stuff. There are also some fairly useful concepts (especially in conjunction with my stocks article) if you ever see a massive overreaction by the broader market again.
We are coming up on the month of October, which has seen some scary stock market declines. It's sometimes called the October Effect. So I am predicting that we will have a scary one this October, I think the conditions could be right. Of course what I really think is that there is an excellent chance we are in for it, like a 60% chance. However, for the record let's say I am predicting one.
Quote: link, historic listThe Bank Panic of 1907, the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987 all happened during the month of October
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp
Quote: SOOPOODRich.... I bought LYB by some formula that factored in dividends, earnings, PE ratio, etc....
I don't own many stocks but the majority that I own pay dividends.
Recent buy of TLRY on B in Law rec.... bought at 5.83... dropped quickly to 4.80! Slowly came back to 5.2. And today exploded to $6.60! B in Law says he is holding, and expects huge bump with Dem pres win due to MJ full federal legalization. So I’m holding for now. Whole market up again.... IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME.
Quote: SOOPOOWhole market up again.... IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME.
The Leading Economic Indicators are trending up for the first time in two years. Sign of a recovering economy.
Where else can investors put their cash, when money market funds and bonds are returning less than the rate of inflation?
The S&P 500 Index Fund, SPY, has a 7.42 YTD return, and a 1.69% yield, vs. a 0.77% yield for the 10 yr. Treasury.
about 700 pts down in the Dow now, less than 3% though. Too early for me to say something like "Black Monday II and I was on the record calling it" but I have my eye on it. Might buy some gold or not.Quote: odiousgambitJust to be on the record
We are coming up on the month of October, which has seen some scary stock market declines. It's sometimes called the October Effect. So I am predicting that we will have a scary one this October, I think the conditions could be right. Of course what I really think is that there is an excellent chance we are in for it, like a 60% chance. However, for the record let's say I am predicting one.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp
the price of gold is going down pre-market, suggesting a lot of people are thinking 'cash is king' even over gold - didn't buy gold the other day but likely for sure today
Just took a hit today on HBI. But of course most everything up today.
B in law recommendation of TLRY soared. Bought at $5.80. Just sold half at $7.70. B in law thinks once it’s official on Biden it rises again.
Overall... up 90% since inception. I think it is not at all time high... I think it was at up 91% a bit ago.
Quote: SOOPOOSo a few stocks with very small stakes have soared. Most notably NIO now over $40. Bought a paltry 300 shares at around $4, sold 100 when it hit $13. So have 200 worth around $8400. Plus $1300 in cash. All for a $1200 investment.
Just took a hit today on HBI. But of course most everything up today.
B in law recommendation of TLRY soared. Bought at $5.80. Just sold half at $7.70. B in law thinks once it’s official on Biden it rises again.
Overall... up 90% since inception. I think it is not at all time high... I think it was at up 91% a bit ago.
Sold another 200 of TLRY at 10.80. Peaked over 12 today. I have 300 left. Will keep it for the long haul.
Quote: SOOPOOUp 94% since inception. It’s been around 6.5 years. Just need another 3% uptick and will be at double. (3% on the 1.94 it is at now). I really wish bonds were a viable alternative now but can’t pull the trigger to tie up money for 5 years for 1% a year. Even less payback if you want FDIC security.
I saw the 10 year was up to almost 1% this week.
Quote: DRichI saw the 10 year was up to almost 1% this week.
I just can’t fathom someone putting say, $1,000,000, to get less than $10,000 TAXABLE per year for a 10 year commitment. I’m obviously wrong, as that is the going rate. Especially when ‘good’ stocks, presumably bellwethers, pay upwards of 2% in dividends.
So today, led by the silly rise in TSLA, the portfolio is double its initial value. This is slightly ahead of what just buying the S & P 500 would have yielded. Actually, probably slightly behind as I don't think dividends are included in the S & P 500 performance. I'm actually not sure! Even matching the S & P would be a success, as some of my portfolio was shielded from gains due to bond exposure. I am aware that I also made money on the bonds, as the past 6 years have seen shrinking interest rates, raising the value of whatever bonds I have.
Anyway.... for the young members here.... buy some stocks.... wait.... buy some more!
TSLA once again leading the way. Sold another 10 shares when it hit $603.
Selling a tad of stock every day. SMG.... terapined suggestion... up again!
Bitcoin ‘stock’ up a lot today.... but still down from purchase. If it ever gets up even 1% I sell it. Regret the purchase....
Pfizer announces last week they have covid vaccine that is 95% effective.
Pfizer gets EUA from FDA on Friday
News outlets hail Coronavirus vaccine as it gets distribution over the weekend
First dose of Pfizer vaccine on Monday beginning massive rollout
How did all that fantastic news affect the stock for the last five days?
Anyway, portfolio up to +106%. Sold more stock today to increase cash amount.
Not sure if I posted this already, but a week or so ago I bought some GBTC. Essentially it is like owning bitcoins, but its fee is 2% a year. Once I realized that if I held it a year and bitcoin went up 1% I would have a net loss of 1%, I hated that I bought it. Of course, BTC went down right after I bought it. So I was grumpy for a few days, then it went back up. I saw it was up almost a percent from when I bought it, I sold. Made $20 after the fees.... there was a $6.95 a trade fee because it is not traded on a major exchange in the US.
Had I waited ONE more day.... it was up like 7% today.....
But of course it may continue to grow.... Apple Pay. Apple streaming. Apple chip manufacturing.... anyway.... sell 100 out of 500 shares....
Quote: SOOPOONow up 108%. I think I will be selling some AAPL on Monday. PE ratio over 40. I think AAPL will be making the transition from growth stock to value stock. There are now so many competitors making smart phones. If P/E ratio normalizes at say 20, that would be a 50% decline in its price.
But of course it may continue to grow.... Apple Pay. Apple streaming. Apple chip manufacturing.... anyway.... sell 100 out of 500 shares....
I think Apple just announced an electric car for 2024. That may give them a boost for the next two or three years. All of the EV stocks seem to be doing well.
Quote: SOOPOONow up 108%. I think I will be selling some AAPL on Monday. PE ratio over 40. I think AAPL will be making the transition from growth stock to value stock. There are now so many competitors making smart phones. If P/E ratio normalizes at say 20, that would be a 50% decline in its price.
But of course it may continue to grow.... Apple Pay. Apple streaming. Apple chip manufacturing.... anyway.... sell 100 out of 500 shares....
Worst mistake I ever made was selling Apple. Had 200 shares in 2002. Split around 2005 made it 400 shares. When Jobs died...I figured the company would flounder without the visionary leader. So...I sold it. That 400 would have split 7 for 1 (2,800 shares) and again 4 for 1 (11,200 shares). You can do the math.
No matter how many times I’ve heard analysts say their reign is coming to end, they have no new products, the stock won’t move, the stock will decline....I’ve come to the conclusion that none of them know anything. I bought it back, but not nearly the amount of shares I would have had had I sat tight.
Quote: DRichI think Apple just announced an electric car for 2024. That may give them a boost for the next two or three years. All of the EV stocks seem to be doing well.
Yup
I just bought Apple last week
Icar
I am expecting a pullback, but have zero skills at market timing. My ‘private consultant’ at TD saw how much cash I had.... I told him I just can’t stomach a safe bond/CD paying less than 1% a year. He said I can get 1.55% for a three year term. For a AAA rated bond. But high minimum. And illiquid. Unbelievable that 1.55% is considered a high return. I think I’ll keep it in cash.
Perhaps you want to pay attention to SIPC limits, "$500,000 per customer for all accounts at the same institution, including a maximum of $250,000 for cash" [per google search] ... SIPC being the pertinent thing instead of FDIC
Quote: odiousgambitIt's a reasonable thing to just keep your funds in the cash accounts at a brokerage, for now anyway, instead of bonds that pay so little these days. It's especially the case for buying new bonds, while holding on to old bonds is a different matter. If and when bonds start paying more, revisit that. And I'm saying it's 'reasonable', but I don't really know what is the 'best' way to go. People are writing articles about the old paradigm about rebalancing and keeping a certain ratio in stocks and bonds as being very much in trouble now. Buying new bonds just sucks.
Perhaps you want to pay attention to SIPC limits, "$500,000 per customer for all accounts at the same institution, including a maximum of $250,000 for cash" [per google search] ... SIPC being the pertinent thing instead of FDIC
I have less than $500k in cash. I just moved some of my cash into the private equity stuff that I have just started a few years ago. This last one is ‘guaranteed’ 9% per year for 3 years then presumably gets sold for another 10-20% premium. It of course seems unbelievable. The reason I invest in these is I have a few friends who have been in these type products for 10+ years with zero failures. Past success does not guarantee future......
While I was in time out the portfolio soared again, mostly due to TSLA. I still own 90 shares, and that’s around $80k now. Portfolio up now 115% since inception.
I bought a tiny bit of TGT on wife’s recommendation. She must have spent a bunch there this week,...
I think you can just have it in more than one institution and SIPC will cover itQuote: SOOPOOI have less than $500k in cash.
I would bet they pay you mostly from returning the principal to be able to do that on a guaranteed basisQuote:I just moved some of my cash into the private equity stuff that I have just started a few years ago. This last one is ‘guaranteed’ 9% per year for 3 years
I'm guessing you can't liquidate early without penalty. I'm allergic to such things, but that means I know little about them and just need to shut upQuote:... then presumably gets sold for another 10-20% premium. It of course seems unbelievable. The reason I invest in these is I have a few friends who have been in these type products for 10+ years with zero failures. Past success does not guarantee future......
I think somebody could have talked me into shorting TSLA ever since I heard about it. And I would have gotten killed. Not investing in it now, and in fact keep telling myself I have no business speculating much in anything, though I do so in gold. Meanwhile I get to watch TSLA and Bitcoin go absolutely through the roof.Quote:While I was in time out the portfolio soared again, mostly due to TSLA. I still own 90 shares, and that’s around $80k now. Portfolio up now 115% since inception.
Man, has that rocketed up too!Quote:I bought a tiny bit of TGT on wife’s recommendation. She must have spent a bunch there this week,...
Quote: odiousgambit
I'm guessing you can't liquidate early without penalty. I'm allergic to such things, but that means I know little about them and just need to shut up
Correct. They are very illiquid. For full disclosure.... I own 8 of these things before this 9th. 6 are doing exactly what was promised.... paying between 6 and 7% annually and supposedly will add another 15+ % (total) upon redemption. 2 stopped paying the distributions in April and have not resumed. Also supposedly they will resume in around 6 months. One owns hotels.... the other senior living. Apparently the COVID requirements have crushed senior living properties. Extra staff. All that PPE. No profits....
It’s all a guess....
the wsj.com version has a different title, and it's behind a pay wall
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investing-in-2021-what-we-already-know-about-stocks-tesla-bitcoin-green-energy-11610116956?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1
