2016 Election
Quote: EvenBobEvery single assumption/prediction about Trump
has been wrong so far. Every one. Why are you so
convinced. There's nothing to base it on. In fact,
Trump has nothing but energy in his campaign,
and Hillary has zero. Her rallies are like wakes.
Put your money where your mouth is. I did.
Quote: AcesAndEightsHe is celebrating because denying Trump the 66 Ohio delegates was a huge step toward a contest convention where Trump doesn't get to 1237. Kasich could be nominated in such a scenario, but the more salient point is that it's incredibly unlikely Trump will be nominated under that scenario.
ETA: terapined beat me to it, in the next post LOL. I should really catch up on threads before hitting the post button.
As far as I have come to understand, Kasich couldn't even be nominated in that scenario, and as of now, neither could Cruz. From what I have been led to believe on the Republican side, for you to be considered in a contested convention you have to win the MAJORITY of delegates in a minimum of eight states, not just the most delegates in eight states, but the majority. The only one who has that now is Trump. Now, from what I understand, changes to the rules can be changed by Paul Ryan. He can unilaterally change them on insignificant changes but needs the delegates' approval for major changes. What constitutes major and minor is not expressly written out however and if he interprets something as minor, he could be overruled if the delegates think it is major
Quote: Gabes22As far as I have come to understand, Kasich couldn't even be nominated in that scenario, and as of now, neither could Cruz. From what I have been led to believe on the Republican side, for you to be considered in a contested convention you have to win the MAJORITY of delegates in a minimum of eight states, not just the most delegates in eight states, but the majority.
Going by a strict reading of the Republican Party Rules (rule 40b), this is correct. If Trump is the only one with a majority of delegates in eight or more states, then, for all intents and purposes, the votes will be counted as Trump and "Not Trump." Note that he would still need "a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention" (Rule 40d), although the "Trump" / "Not Trump" rule would still apply to the second and subsequent ballots. (The whole "Trump" / "Not Trump" thing may have come from 2012, where the party didn't want Ron Paul's total vote count announced, although I do remember a convention years ago where somebody needed the support of five states and couldn't get it.)
The rules aren't clear as to whether or not the rules can be changed on the convention floor, although if the party sees a potential problem before the convention starts, it shouldn't be that hard to change the rules in advance. This brings up another question: what if, for whatever reason, Trump declines the nomination? Technically, nobody else would be eligible under the rules as written.
Meanwhile Hillary is trying to remember which drapes she wants to keep and which ones to change. And Bill is dreaming of the old days of BJ's in the WH.
Quote: EvenBobEvery single assumption/prediction about Trump
has been wrong so far. Every one. Why are you so
convinced. There's nothing to base it on. In fact,
Trump has nothing but energy in his campaign,
and Hillary has zero. Her rallies are like wakes.
I'm not interested in debating, I'm interesting in betting. Put your money where your mouth is.
Meanwhile, I hope everybody remembers this prediction as well as the one that Romney was a lock to beat Obama in 2012.
Quote: WizardofnothingIs that an open offer wizard?
Sure. I'm not going to bet a huge amount with someone I don't know but we can do something, unless you post up or get somebody I trust to vouch for you. Otherwise, how about $50?
in an ad. If this doesn't make you laugh,
nothing will.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/273233-trump-ad-clinton-not-tough-enough-to-face-putin-isis
Quote: WizardMeanwhile, I hope everybody remembers this prediction .
That young Sanders voters will come to
Trump instead of Hillary? That's the only
prediction I made. I have no idea if Trump
will be the nominee, at this point it looks
like Cruz has a chance.
Quote: EvenBobI told ya Trump would use Hillary barking
in an ad. If this doesn't make you laugh,
nothing will.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/273233-trump-ad-clinton-not-tough-enough-to-face-putin-isis
Seems a bit early.
Should have saved it for the general.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/15/social-media-explodes-over-hillarys-excruciating-voice-video/#ixzz43640GxcW
Quote: ams288Seems a bit early.
Should have saved it for the general.
It's the political gift that keeps on giving, wait and
see. It's Dukakis in the army helmet in 1988. He looked
like a moron in the helmet and we saw it again and
again. It killed his campaign.
debate in at the last minute, and Trump said
screw that. He pointed out there have been 12
and 12 is enough. They just keep asking the
same questions hoping for a fight to keep
ratings up. Trump says he already has long
standing plans on that date, and he hinted that
for him debates are over. Him and Cruz and
Kasich, what a yawner that would be.
FOX reported they already had 50K requests
for tickets. Poor Megyn, she had a whole new
list of gotcha questions lined up up for Trump.
Quote: Gabes22They have had enough of them. Personally I think Trump will absolutely clock Hillary in the debates
He will claim victory whether he does or not....
Drudge will back him up.
Yet his answers will be just as generic and sad as they always are.
Quote: Gabes22They have had enough of them. Personally I think Trump will absolutely clock Hillary in the debates
I've heard in a couple places now that something
unusual is going on. Trump can be as un PC as
he wants, the media can go batshit over it, and
it has no effect at all on Trump's ratings.
The reason I'm hearing for this is, because Trump
is so well known from 30 years of being on talk
shows and having a hit show for 10 years, the
public knows who he is to such a degree that
nothing he says surprises them. He can get away
with far more than an almost unknown could.
The public already has a strong opinion of him
and it won't change.
This infuriates the media. Krauthammer hates Trump's
guts, and gets so worked up sometimes I think he's
going to fall out of his wheelchair. But nobody cares
because that's just Donald being Donald.
This will greatly effect debates with Hill. Trump has
already mentioned Bill's Bimbo's a few months ago
after Hill citicized him. She shut right up and hasn't
gone after him personally again. Trump has no
problem about bringing up every skeleton in her
closet. The media will scream and have daily fainting
spells, but it will roll of Trump's back as it always
does.
as all speeches were given, the people
on the set payed half attention
to them, listening and checking email
and twitter. Except when Trump spoke.
For the whole 15min, she said they
were throughly engaged in listening
to him. Not to hear him mess up, but
just because you can't help but pay
attention when he speaks. She found
it fascinating.
Quote: EvenBobI've heard in a couple places now that something
unusual is going on. Trump can be as un PC as
he wants, the media can go batshit over it, and
it has no effect at all on Trump's ratings.
The reason I'm hearing for this is, because Trump
is so well known from 30 years of being on talk
shows and having a hit show for 10 years, the
public knows who he is to such a degree that
nothing he says surprises them. He can get away
with far more than an almost unknown could.
The public already has a strong opinion of him
and it won't change.
This infuriates the media. Krauthammer hates Trump's
guts, and gets so worked up sometimes I think he's
going to fall out of his wheelchair. But nobody cares
because that's just Donald being Donald.
This will greatly effect debates with Hill. Trump has
already mentioned Bill's Bimbo's a few months ago
after Hill citicized him. She shut right up and hasn't
gone after him personally again. Trump has no
problem about bringing up every skeleton in her
closet. The media will scream and have daily fainting
spells, but it will roll of Trump's back as it always
does.
It seem as if he would have to be caught with both a dead girl and a live boy.
the NYT, Wa/Po, HuffPo, that Hillary might
be the worst Dem candidate in history.
Nobody likes her. Union members hate her
and love Trump. Blacks have no enthusiasm
for her. Men are repelled by her. And she's
being investigated from four different directions
by gov't agencies. Nobody even mentioned
Bill, who is the real millstone around her neck.
She can't sell books, she can't draw crowds, the
enthusiasm factor for her is zero. Dem primary
voters are staying home in droves. She reminds
every man over 50 of his first wife, and every
woman of that friend who stabbed you in the
back. Other than all that, she's golden..
Quote: EvenBobLots of different articles floating around in
the NYT, Wa/Po, HuffPo, that Hillary might
be the worst Dem candidate in history.
Nobody likes her. Union members hate her
and love Trump. Blacks have no enthusiasm
for her. Men are repelled by her. And she's
being investigated from four different directions
by gov't agencies. Nobody even mentioned
Bill, who is the real millstone around her neck.
She can't sell books, she can't draw crowds, the
enthusiasm factor for her is zero. Dem primary
voters are staying home in droves. She reminds
every man over 50 of his first wife, and every
woman of that friend who stabbed you in the
back. Other than all that, she's golden..
Ok, If she is so hated, why is she beating Bernie
She clearly will have over 50% delegates
Something really popular Trump cant crack
Are you taking up the Wiz's bet?
If you truly believe what you are posting, why not bet the Wiz?
Quote: terapinedOk, If she is so hated, why is she beating Bernie
A kid in short pants could beat Bernie.
The guy is a loon.
How many online bets have I made
over the years. Think real hard now..
Quote: EvenBobHow many online bets have I made
over the years. Think real hard now..
I believe the answer to that question is the same answer to this question:
How many of EvenBob's political predictions have been accurate?
Primary Turnout Means Nothing for the General Election
(Don't tell Donald Trump!)
Quote: ams288
How many of EvenBob's political predictions have been accurate?
I voted for Obama in 08, for Bush both times,
for Clinton in 92, for Bush in 88, for Reagan
twice, for Ford in 76, for Nixon in 72. I was
wrong about Ford, about Dole in 96, and
Romney in 2012. Who has turned out to be
almost as big a pinhead as Obama.
Quote: ams288
Primary Turnout Means Nothing for the General Election
It's 50/50.
"In the six elections where there were contests on both sides, the party with the higher primary voter turnout won the popular vote three times. In 1976, 1992 and 2008, Democratic primary turnout surpassed that of the GOP nominating race, and the Democratic candidates won the general election."
The 3 times it was a high primary turnout
and a high general election, it was always
for a Democrat. This is what's scaring the
crap out them. For the first time it could very
well be a Republican that has a strong turnout
in both.
Quote: EvenBobThe 3 times it was a high primary turnout
and a high general election, it was always
for a Democrat. This is what's scaring the
crap out them. For the first time it could very
well be a Republican that has a strong turnout
in both.
Not if the nominee is Donald Trump....
He has a definite ceiling, and would be the most unpopular candidate of all time (Hillary would be 2nd most unpopular).
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/17/poll-donald-trump-hits-65-percent-in-new-york-more-than-50-percent-ahead-of-ted-cruz/
Quote: EvenBobDonald Trump Hits 65 Percent in New York, More than 50 Percent Ahead of Ted Cruz
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/17/poll-donald-trump-hits-65-percent-in-new-york-more-than-50-percent-ahead-of-ted-cruz/
Ted Cruz running in NY lol
His act doesn't play well in NY
Hill would crush Cruz in NY
There is a man who isn't afraid of admitting his mistakes. I like that, I made a couple mistakes along the way too. I am NOT nominating EB for a third party ticket. You gotta pay me for that jhit ;-)Quote: EvenBobI voted for Obama in 08, for Bush both times,
for Clinton in 92, for Bush in 88, for Reagan
twice, for Ford in 76, for Nixon in 72. I was
wrong about Ford, about Dole in 96, and
Romney in 2012. Who has turned out to be
almost as big a pinhead as Obama.
Quote: terapinedTed Cruz running in NY lol
His act doesn't play well in NY
Cruz and his NYC values crack is not playing
well in that part of the country. Very hard to
walk something like that back.
I don't think that would do them much good - it would release him from his pledge not to run as an independant if he doesn't win the nomination, which would split the republican vote.
I don't know that I believe him on that pledge, either. If he goes into a brokered convention, with more votes than anyone else, and doesn't get the nomination, will he honor his pledge?
Quote: Dalex64I don't know that I believe him on that pledge, either. If he goes into a brokered convention, with more votes than anyone else, and doesn't get the nomination, will he honor his pledge?
He said a few weeks ago that because
the RNC is having all these secret
meetings to try and stop him, they
already broke the rules of the pledge.
I almost fell out of my chair when he said that. All those late drunken college nights we spent arguing over politics. To imagine him voting for Hillary.... it's unthinkable.
Quote: ams288My college buddy (who loooooves Trump) said if the Republicans do something to screw Trump out of the nomination when he has the most delegates, he will vote for Hillary.
I almost fell out of my chair when he said that. All those late drunken college nights we spent arguing over politics. To imagine him voting for Hillary.... it's unthinkable.
Why? Throughout time, many of the times when he talked politics, he spoke liberally, particularly when it came to social issues.
Quote: Gabes22Why? Throughout time, many of the times when he talked politics, he spoke liberally, particularly when it came to social issues.
My buddy, like most Trump supporters, doesn't seem to care about all of those discrepancies...
Quote: Gabes22And if you think the support for Trump is solely on the Republican side, you are mistaken. He is getting people that haven't voted in 30 years, if not at all in their life. I hear reports that the Dems think he is better with the Unions than Hillary, that he might get over 20% of the black vote which is unheard of for a Republican, heck double digits is high for a Republican.
No doubt his demographic is probably unusual. How big it will be in the end is the real question.
Quote: Gabes22But that was not the point you brought up. By me reading what you said, my impression is that you were befuddled as to why he would vote for Hillary.
No... my point was I cannot imagine how my buddy, a massive right-wing life long Republican, would ever even consider voting for a Democrat for President.
I'm not befuddled as to why he would do it - it would be purely out of spite in response to the establishment stealing the nomination from Trump.
Quote: ams288No... my point was I cannot imagine how my buddy, a massive right-wing life long Republican, would ever even consider voting for a Democrat for President.
I'm not befuddled as to why he would do it - it would be purely out of spite in response to the establishment stealing the nomination from Trump.
I'm not voting for the GOPer if they steal it from Trump, which is almost the same as voting for Hillary. I'll show up to vote for the House and Senate, but I'll vote for one of the 3rd party candidates for President.
Gabes said he had voted Dem in Cook County once or twice.
Are you even allowed to vote Rep in Cook County?
Maybe you can, but they just drop 2 Dem votes in when you leave to offset you?
Cook County needs serious fumigation, at least ;-)
about Trump, word for word, was said about
Reagan in 1980. That he was a war monger who
would push the button, that he would lose the
house and the senate to the Dems, that was
going to destroy the party. They even had
secret meetings in the party to derail him,
just like they're doing with Trump. Regan
turned out to be one of the best presidents
we ever had.
And somebody has yet to explain why Obama
was more qualified in 08 than Trump is now.. He was
a nobody senator who rarely voted in the senate
and never ran so much as a lemonade stand, let
alone a state or a business.
So, in math terms:Quote: EvenBobAnd somebody has yet to explain why Obama was more qualified in 08 than Trump is now.
"my own inability to see the obvious differences between the two"
+
"my own failure to notice any of the comparisons that have actually been made"
=
"nobody has explained it".
Quote: MichaelBluejaySo, in math terms:
"my own inability to see the obvious differences between the two"
.
The differences are glaring. Obama had no
experience at running anything, Trump has
over 30 years of behind the wheel experience
at running a huge company with 10's of
thousands of employee's. Obama had no
experience in making deals where he had to
give and take. Trump has nothing but
experience in that area. Obama was a lifelong
politician with no experience whatsoever in
how the private sector works. Trump has nothing
but experience in that area.
I could go on and about the bigoted church Obama
attended every week for 20 years, his criminal
extremist friends like Bill Ayers. Yet no
alarm was sounded in 08 about how terribly
unqualified Obama was to be president. Why
was that.
Right, NOBODY on the right said that Obama was unqualified to be president. Right-wingers unanimously said, "Well, we disagree with his policies, but there's no question that he's qualified for the job."Quote: EvenBobYet no alarm was sounded in 08 about how terribly unqualified Obama was to be president. Why was that.
Again:
"because I somehow avoided noticing something that blatantly exists"
=
"it didn't exist".
Quote: MichaelBluejayRight, NOBODY on the right said that Obama was unqualified to be president..
Sigh. The press, the media, I never heard
any of them even bring it up. And if they
did, like FOX did sometimes, nobody
harped on it like the press is doing to
Trump. I used to watch Hannity in those
days and without him, we never would have
heard of reverend Wright or Bill Ayers.
But he was a small voice in a huge media
pool.
Trump is far more qualified than Obama ever
was to be president. It's not even an argument.
Quote: EvenBobNobody remembers that what they're saying about Trump, word for word, was said about Regan in 1980. That he was a war monger who would push the button, that he would lose the house and the senate to the Dems, that was going to destroy the party. They even had secret meetings in the party to derail him,
just like they're doing with Trump. Regan turned out to be one of the best presidents we ever had.
Donald Regan was President? Oh, you're talking about Ronald Reagan (with two A's)...
And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Democrats control the House and Senate going into 1980? (I think the Republicans got the Senate, only to lose it back in 1986.) You're right about the thought that Reagan would send us into war, but it wasn't the general public who were afraid so much as the high school and college men who were old enough to be drafted (all men born in 1960 or later) and were convinced that a vote for Reagan was a vote for the next Vietnam War. Pretty much every school's students that I am aware of backed John Anderson, but apparently not enough of them bothered to vote that November, as he finished third (or worse) in every state.
