Decision 2012
Quote: MathExtremistIf so, then based on the current projection from Fox (and CNN), Nate was exactly right. Obama projects at 303 without Florida, 332 with, and that's the only uncalled state right now.
He also has a 2.5% popular vote spread (50.8 to 48.3). It'll be interesting to see if the west coast blows Obama's lead out closer to that level in the popular vote as well.
Quote: AZDuffmanSince we will be doing what we did the last 4 we should get more of the same-high unemployment, low growth, lack of business start-ups, and loads of money printing.
If you love conservatism more than the country you should hope so. Because if things trend the other way, the Kenyan, socialist, empty suit, teleprompter president may leave an argument that you can be socially responsible and recover the economy.
Rush Limbaugh will be crapping in his adult diapers if that happens. (okay, not really, he will just be in denial of anything good coming from Obama no matter what)
But he will still be crapping his adult diapers.
New Hampshire is poised to become the first state in history to have it's entire multi-person congressional delegation change hands 3 times in 6 years (RR to DD in 2006, DD to RR in 2010, RR to DD tonight).
Heidi Heitkamp is projecting to win the open ND senate seat by 120 votes. If she and John Tester hold the line, then the Dems will actually gain seats in the senate tonight.
Quote: rxwineIf you love conservatism more than the country you should hope so. Because if things trend the other way, the Kenyan, socialist, empty suit, teleprompter president may leave an argument that you can be socially responsible and recover the economy.
You cannot spend your way to prosperity, as we will continue to see.
Do be ready for your tax increase in 55 days, so you can be socially responsible.
Quote: rdw4potus
Heidi Heitkamp is projecting to win the open ND senate seat by 120 votes.
I know it's ND, but isn't that close enough for a recount?
Quote: AZDuffmanYou cannot spend your way to prosperity, as we will continue to see.
Do be ready for your tax increase in 55 days, so you can be socially responsible.
Since I'm an unemployed "doctor", my taxes won't be increasing, along with most of the active members of this forum.
Quote: tringlomaneI know it's ND, but isn't that close enough for a recount?
Easily. But it's pretty laughable right now. she's up by 2,800 votes with 92% reporting. Berg stands to gain 2,680 votes based on a straight line proportional estimate of the vote in the counties with precincts left to report.
Quote: tringlomane
Since I'm an unemployed "doctor", my taxes won't be increasing, along with most of the active members of this forum.
If you pay income taxes you are going to pay more. The Bush cuts-for-all expire. Hopefully the GOP in the House holds the line and demands they be exended for all. Otherwise they should say, "America, you wanted a tax incerease, here it is!"
Quote: AZDuffmanIf you pay income taxes you are going to pay more. The Bush cuts-for-all expire. Hopefully the GOP in the House holds the line and demands they be exended for all. Otherwise they should say, "America, you wanted a tax incerease, here it is!"
This year I won't be paying taxes of any significance. Yay for not having a job! And unless Obama has been lying, he was planning to only repeal the Bush tax cuts for people making more money than I currently would ever hope to make. If you are one of those people, I don't feel sorry for you.
If I can get a job, I really don't have a problem with paying taxes.
Quote: tringlomaneThis year I won't be paying taxes of any significance. Yay for not having a job! And unless Obama has been lying, he was planning to only repeal the Bush tax cuts for people making more money than I currently would ever hope to make. If you are one of those people, I don't feel sorry for you.
The House has to pass it, hopefully they make him keep the cuts for all. I do not understand the greed of folks like yourself, wanting others to pay more when you pay none. When it hits some or all look for the recession right after.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe House has to pass it, hopefully they make him keep the cuts for all. I do not understand the greed of folks like yourself, wanting others to pay more when you pay none. When it hits some or all look for the recession right after.
When I do eventually get a $100k/yr job with my degree...um yeah, my view will not change and will be okay with paying ~40% to various forms of taxes. I am NOT being greedy at all.
Quote: AZDuffmanI do not understand the greed of folks like yourself, wanting others to pay more when you pay none. When it hits some or all look for the recession right after.
If you think those people not paying taxes are greedy, you can be greedy too and quit your job, thus no taxes. So how about it?
Well...?
Quote: rxwineIf you think those people not paying taxes are greedy, you can be greedy too and quit your job, thus no taxes. So how about it?
Well...?
Haha...sure, I'll definitely be willing to take his job and pay his taxes, especially since he makes enough to worry about Obama's intended action on the Bush tax cuts!!
Obama 51% - 58,936,634
Romney 49% - 56,587,014
Far from final and excluding Virgil Goode and that Johnson guy and anyone else that didn't matter.
What happened to all of those "unskewed" polls that I heard so much about?
Quote: rxwineIf you think those people not paying taxes are greedy, you can be greedy too and quit your job, thus no taxes. So how about it?
Well...?
Sorry, I like to eat off my own plate and not somebody else's.
BTW: If you notice the ones I say are greedy are the ones who keep saying to raise taxes on somebody else, just because that somebody else makes more than them. And as the Bush tax cuts were for everybody, the same everybody will soon be paying more, probably at least $500 for an average income earner with no kids while those with can expect to pay $1-2K.
The next four years will be a test of President Obama's leadership. He can certainly blame Bush for whatever he'd like, but his legacy is on the line...not Bush's. Can he compromise his positions enough to force the Republicans to work with him by saying things like "look how far I've come to meet you in the middle"? He has the bully pulpit and can use it to, well, bully but only within reason. In other words, he has to give and he has to convince everyone he is giving. Will he remain steadfast and seem unwilling to compromise?
How will the Libyan incident play out?
How will he handle the "fiscal cliff"?
Likewise, the Republicans have no mandate and they clearly need to look at what happened and make some changes to their message. They will need to work with the President but their mission will be different than his--they need to make it look like they are forcing him to compromise with them. If they choose not to compromise at all, the 2014 elections could swing control back to the Dems. If they work with him in a way that makes them look good, it could have the opposite impact.
2014 and 2016 start today!!
Candidate who has hurt himself worst within his own party at this point? The big man. The President WAS acting Presidential during the Sandy visit (though FEMA seems to be failing miserably once again and the opinion may turn on the whole issue; the President won the battle when it counted!) and The governor's wet kisses did nothing but help the President. I'm all for thanking a man for doing good but at that point, he hadn't done all that much and he wasn't yet deserving of the praise the governor gave him. The jury is still out--in the end, it could be that the President's folks deserve a lot of praise or they could be deserving of a lot of criticism.
Quote: EvenBobSuffolk Univ pulled their polling out of Fl 3 weeks
ago, saying Obama can't win there. But what do
they know..
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win
Apparently, not a hell of a lot.
Quote: RonCWhere does this leave us with 6+ billion dollars spent on the election and essentially the same government? Republicans have the House, Dems have the Senate without enough votes to bust a fillibuster, and President Obama has won re-election with a bit less of a margin than the last election. There is no mandate either way. Don't go crazy, "O" folks, the President won fair and square and I am not trying to say that he didn't.
A look around the morning after and that is the real kicker. A few things got back to "normal" in the form of IN, NC, and the Senate seat in MA.
However, a few things change. Obama becomes the first POTUS to win re-election by less than his margin the first time, as of this writing he may not even end up with the same number of votes as last time. Or IOW in 4 years he has convinced a net no persons of his agenda, may have even lost a few. Not at all a mandate, more a "whatever."
Even without looking at policy, the economy will statistically have another recession during his term, Post-WWII recessions happening about once just under every 5 years. We got spoiled with the boom of the 1980s that carried into the 1990s. That is probably over and we regress to the mean. He will not be able to credibly blame Bush any longer for that or anything else. I am predicting it sooner rather than later, Q3 of 2013, unless the tax cuts are extended, something I do not feel he will agree to do.
Second terms attract scandals and problems. Libya is a brewing scandal, as are all the green-failures. If the media digs on them remains to be seen.
Fiscal cliff gives no time for a break, expect a wild lame-duck Congress next month.
Quote:2014 and 2016 start today!!
*sigh* yup
It seems like now, all of his doubters have changed their tune from "he doesn't know what he's talking about" to "well, all he did was average the polls.... anyone could have done that." Yeah, anyone could have done that, but you still would have had your heads up Rasmussen's ass.
Quote: WizardI had about $21,000 bet on the election. Of course, I had to lay odds on Obama, so didn't win nearly that much.
You're my Idol. I had $2,000 bet. Next election, I should bet 20k too.
Quote: Mission146BREAKING NEWS
Rasmussen Reports has just called the election for our new President of the United States, Mitt Romney!
Mission,
I take it that you are being serious?? Really??
I would fire his dumb ass and will switch the channel any time I see his mug on my TV
Quote: bigpete88Quote: Mission146BREAKING NEWS
Rasmussen Reports has just called the election for our new President of the United States, Mitt Romney!
Mission,
I take it that you are being serious?? Really??
I would fire his dumb ass and will switch the channel any time I see his mug on my TV
I think he was being tongue-in-cheek and referring to how far off Rasmussen's polls had been from reality.
Yes, tongue-in-cheek, I have a weird sense of humor.
Quote: Mission146FFV & BF66,
Yes, tongue-in-cheek, I have a weird sense of humor.
As do I. I think we "get" each other! :D
Quote: WizardI had about $21,000 bet on the election. Of course, I had to lay odds on Obama, so didn't win nearly that much.
I suspected as much. I didn't think you kept such a close eye on those markets just for the fun of it. My suspicions were kind of confirmed in my mind late last week when my post inquiring if you had decided to buy a position went unanswered. lol
If you really want to talk about polling conspiracy, lets talk about the republican leaning pollsters, Karl Rove, Dick Morris, Rasmussen. It isn't just that these guys missed so badly. They are pretty smart people. I find it hard to believe that didn't know the models they were using were so inaccurate. In other words, I feel like they had to know they were wrong and were purposely misleading their own followers. Campaign pollsters engage in this all the time, but when people and firms that market themselves as legit independent pollsters do it, they are nothing more than snake oil salesman. I hope they have now lost any credibility going forward.
Quote: kewljI suspected as much. I didn't think you kept such a close eye on those markets just for the fun of it. My suspicions were kind of confirmed in my mind late last week when my post inquiring if you had decided to buy a position went unanswered. lol
Wizard did not answer my same question either...ha ha ha
I had enough indicators to decide anyway. Just not a big enough bankroll to bet 21k. Next time I should be able to bet more than that :-)
So how did that work out for you?Quote: KeyserRomney will win with 320 electoral votes or more.
The weakness of most polls is psychology. Tea Party voters are still angry and will turnout in numbers close to 2010. Consequently more Republicans will turnout than they did in 2008.. The partisan turnout looks like it will be +2 to +4 for republicans. Many statisticians are averaging the turnouts of 2004 with 2008 in order to estimate the expected partisan turnout. However, simply averaging the voter turnout for 2004 and 2008 only skews the data. You can't create an average in order to estimate voter turnout. The correct method is to estimate the MOST LIKELY voter turnout by looking more closely at voter psychology. Another method that would be more effective would be to follow the trend of voting over the last ten years. The trend is upward towards more republicans turning out if you were to plot the line. Averaging simply prevents a poll from looking like an outlier when compared to other polls in the end.
I also suspect that many statisticians are not using the correct job numbers in order to predict the election. The actual unemployment numbers are far higher than what's being reported, since many have fallen out of the system. Blacks in particular have a much higher unemployment rate, which will likely lead to a much lower voter turnout among democrats.
-Keyser
Quote: kewljIf you really want to talk about polling conspiracy, lets talk about the republican leaning pollsters, Karl Rove, Dick Morris, Rasmussen. It isn't just that these guys missed so badly. They are pretty smart people. I find it hard to believe that didn't know the models they were using were so inaccurate. In other words, I feel like they had to know they were wrong and were purposely misleading their own followers. Campaign pollsters engage in this all the time, but when people and firms that market themselves as legit independent pollsters do it, they are nothing more than snake oil salesman. I hope they have now lost any credibility going forward.
I think Nate Silver actually hit it on the head:
Quote: Nate Silver, Nov. 2 column
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public. (emphasis mine)
There's nothing wrong with infotainment -- it brings in a lot of money. But it's not exactly quality unbiased journalism. Nate Silver might be better at math than a lot of pundits, but he's not clairvoyant. He just took a statistical model, applied it, and reported the results thereof. His models have been right far more often than it's been wrong. Arguing against those results, rather than arguing against the validity of the model, is somewhat akin to arguing that 1 + 1 doesn't equal 2, even if you don't dispute what "1" or "+" mean.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."
-- Damon Runyon, riffing on Ecclesiastes
Does anyone want to give an over view of what the U.S. economy might look like in 3 years?
My prediction is not great and I hope that I am wrong.
Quote: ams288A lot of people owe Nate Silver a big apology. Assuming Florida goes for Obama, he called EVERY STATE CORRECTLY.
It seems like now, all of his doubters have changed their tune from "he doesn't know what he's talking about" to "well, all he did was average the polls.... anyone could have done that." Yeah, anyone could have done that, but you still would have had your heads up Rasmussen's ass.
Yes. So true! Actually, Sliver called Florida as a toss-up, so his perfect record is intact regardless of the final tally there.
Truer words were never spoken.Quote: EvenBobGuess we'll find out Tuesday, huh. The talk
will talk and the bulls#/t will run and hide
under the bed..
Quote: bigpete88Election is over.
Does anyone want to give an over view of what the U.S. economy might look like in 3 years?
My prediction is not great and I hope that I am wrong.
Follow the trendline:
If nothing else changes, unemployment will be at about 6% in 3 years.
Edit: It's my belief that Obama won re-election because many people had an intuitive sense of the direction of that chart. If the trendline in unemployment were going up, he would have lost.
Quote: MathExtremist
Edit: It's my belief that Obama won re-election because many people had an intuitive sense of the direction of that chart. If the trendline in unemployment were going up, he would have lost.
I agree. In a fight between what basically boils down to "the economy is bad" and "the economy is getting better," "getting better" wins.
-- Damon Runyon, riffing on Ecclesiastes "
Best quote on this thread !
And advice most ignored too.
I live in Florida and they are still counting votes.....ha ha ha
The Mayor of Miami was just on the news trying to explain.
People waited 4-8 hours to vote.
5dimes already paid my prop bet for Obama to win Florida. Value bet at +215 where there was a 50-50 gamble on Florida.
Congrats to Nate Silver too....Big Congrats
Quote: AcesAndEightsThis thread is going to be a disaster tonight. I predict EvenBob and Keyser will be MIA. AZDuffman will be a gracious loser.
Note, I don't give a fuck who wins (voted for Gary Johnson), but the smart money is on Obama.
Let the record show that I was correct. Bob hasn't posted since 11/05, Keyser since yesterday.
AZDuffman is reasonable enough to stick around and have a coherent discussion about the results. Props to him for that.
One of the odd factoids about this election is that of the 10 richest (per capita) Counties in the USA, 8 went Obama.
I also think the Home Mortgage deduction is in danger.
I live in CT, and my thoughts are still with NJ and LI-NY... its friggin snowing here 2" + already (it started 3-4 hours early at 11AM).
Good Game for all those that cashed in on Election betting. We get 4 more years of the Obama administration and a divided Congress.
Quote: AcesAndEightsLet the record show that I was correct. Bob hasn't posted since 11/05, Keyser since yesterday.
AZDuffman is reasonable enough to stick around and have a coherent discussion about the results. Props to him for that.
Thank you for your support. A gentleman doesn't leave when things go his way. Though I do need a break soon after months of debate.
Quote: 98ClubsI also think the Home Mortgage deduction is in danger.
We get 4 more years of the Obama administration and a divided Congress.
I have a feeling the home mortgage deduction will end up being one of the "compromises" - you can deduct up to a certain amount, so the people with relatively small mortgages will still get their full deduction while somebody with a mortgage on an 8-figure house, or on a number of houses, won't get as much back. Tax the rich without making it look like you're taxing the rich.
As for "four more years of a divided Congress," that remains to be seen - there's another vote in 2014, and from what I hear, Puerto Rico may be added to the mix.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI have a feeling the home mortgage deduction will end up being one of the "compromises" - you can deduct up to a certain amount, so the people with relatively small mortgages will still get their full deduction while somebody with a mortgage on an 8-figure house, or on a number of houses, won't get as much back. Tax the rich without making it look like you're taxing the rich.
As for "four more years of a divided Congress," that remains to be seen - there's another vote in 2014, and from what I hear, Puerto Rico may be added to the mix.
Out of party gains in midterms. Doubt Puerto Rico gets statehood. They mostly know it is a bad deal for them.
Speaking of the WOV contest, do we have a winner?
Quote: AZDuffmanOut of party gains in midterms. Doubt Puerto Rico gets statehood. They mostly know it is a bad deal for them.
Well, apparently they want it now, so it's down to the stuffed shirts.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI have a feeling the home mortgage deduction will end up being one of the "compromises" - you can deduct up to a certain amount, so the people with relatively small mortgages will still get their full deduction while somebody with a mortgage on an 8-figure house, or on a number of houses, won't get as much back. Tax the rich without making it look like you're taxing the rich.
Isn't that already the case?
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p936.pdf
I'm pretty sure that chart shows that if you took out a $5M loan to buy a $6M house last year, you don't get to deduct all of the mortgage interest.
"Be Vocal, Hire Local."
"Watch Chris Matthews."
"Watch Monday Night Football."
"Now is the time to buy a new Kubota!"
"Purchase a new Fusion and get 60 months same as cash!"
I can't tell you guys how relieved I was just to hear regular ads on the radio again, and the traffic/weather report is back up to thirty seconds from fifteen where it was for the last month.
