Decision 2012
November 6th, 2012 at 7:58:51 PM
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Currently Intrade only has him the favorite in North Carolina, and every line is massive. Not sure what happened to Florida and Virginia.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:00:33 PM
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yeah, North Carolina is almost all counted now. Romney is going to win one swing state.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:04:55 PM
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CNN just called Wi for Obama and NC for Romney. Romney won't be getting 325+ lol Senate also stays Dem.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:09:24 PM
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That fat lady has been inhaling for a long time, but will sing any second.
Intrade equivalent: Obama -2717.
Intrade equivalent: Obama -2717.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:12:26 PM
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Iowa goes to Obama but Obama is still three EVs short.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 8:12:57 PM
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Both at the presidential and senatorial level, this is looking an awful lot like what every pollster not named Scott Rasmussen predicted.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 8:12:58 PM
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Florida will be counting all night. The late votes are in blue areas.
No announcement until tomorrow. It is almost tomorrow here now at 11:12 PM
No announcement until tomorrow. It is almost tomorrow here now at 11:12 PM
November 6th, 2012 at 8:13:19 PM
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Iowa and NM just called. I can't wait to listen to Glenn Beck tomorrow morning. I wonder if he will off himself on air. I hope not, Glenn, Pat, and Stu make me giggle!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:13:26 PM
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Ohio goes to Obama. Obama is re-elected.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 8:15:32 PM
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Fox News just called Ohio for Obama, and with it the election. Game over. Excuse me, please while I wipe the egg off my face. I was no where near the mark in my projections. Oh will, we'll try again in 2016.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:20:17 PM
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Fox News called it before CNN!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 6th, 2012 at 8:20:34 PM
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CNN just called Ohio and the election for Obama. Looks like a 334-204 win for Obama.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 8:20:42 PM
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What a friggin' pummeling, it's not even midnight for me!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 6th, 2012 at 8:21:30 PM
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My prop bet at +215 for Florida is the only open bet. +EV bet that I really did not think I would win :-)
Election over
Election over
November 6th, 2012 at 8:22:51 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:23:10 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:23:21 PM
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Intrade equivalent = -33200 Obama.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:25:03 PM
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Oh Bunhilde! Your aria has never sounded so sweet.
Poor Karl Rove. He doesn't believe his own network's decision. It fun watching him flail on Fox.
Poor Karl Rove. He doesn't believe his own network's decision. It fun watching him flail on Fox.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 8:27:12 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:27:24 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:27:33 PM
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"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 8:28:01 PM
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So, before I go to bed, I would ask that all who believe the country won't survive another 4 years of Obama, please go ahead and forward me all of your loot and swag. I will take good care of it until America is rebuilt. Thanks!!!
Disclaimer: Again, I did not vote, and still don't care who won. Won't make a difference in my day to day affairs. However, I do want to see the concession speeches from our far right members who just "knew" Romney would win by 500,000,000 votes!
Disclaimer: Again, I did not vote, and still don't care who won. Won't make a difference in my day to day affairs. However, I do want to see the concession speeches from our far right members who just "knew" Romney would win by 500,000,000 votes!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:29:39 PM
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So economy will have 4 more years in the can, just like expected.
On the upside, this should be cause for celebration for most everyone outside US.
On the upside, this should be cause for celebration for most everyone outside US.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
November 6th, 2012 at 8:31:54 PM
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Interesting. Based on newest input from polling stations, Fox is going to have to withdraw its call. O and R only separated by fewer than 1,000 votes with 25% still out. Seems that Ohio is still up for grabs. Rove is peeved with Fox.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:32:51 PM
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Would have been in the can no matter who was elected. I wish the president had that kind of power. Alas, he doesn't.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:37:15 PM
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Fox Decision Desk stands by its call: Ohio--and the election--goes to Obama. Even with large numbers of votes still out, O has too much of a lead for R to overcome.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:38:13 PM
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Quote:Would have been in the can no matter who was elected.
Well, that is so. Correction: will be burying its head deeper into the pit rather than grabbing the edges of the hole and struggling to pull up.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
November 6th, 2012 at 8:41:28 PM
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Quote: avargovWould have been in the can no matter who was elected. I wish the president had that kind of power. Alas, he doesn't.
Now that the election seems to be over, we have the real issues of huge debt and a lot of jobs going over seas.
Plus, we might have this Health Care "Tax"
Hopefully, the people here are sharp enough and work hard enough to figure out how to have a decent life style.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:42:14 PM
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Quote: P90Well, that is so. Correction: will be burying its head deeper into the pit rather than grabbing the edges of the hole and struggling to pull up.
I agree. I can only hope that the Congress will now at least try to find some common ground and actually help the country. I fear this won't happen :-(
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:43:55 PM
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Where the hell are all the guys who were absolutely positive Romney would win?! FOX News won't offer much solace tonight.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
November 6th, 2012 at 8:44:36 PM
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Nate Silver is not a guru. All he did was take all of the data that was available and presented the numbers wherever they fell. It looks like his methods, common sense as they are, were vindicated.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 8:46:49 PM
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Quote: avargovI agree. I can only hope that the Congress will now at least try to find some common ground and actually help the country. I fear this won't happen :-(
Not popular to make the necessary change. D.C. has caused, and continues to cause, huge problems for the US.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:48:15 PM
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Pete....I couldn't agree more. And it is unfortunate. Of course, if Romney would have won, the necessary changes would not have come either.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 8:49:05 PM
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Krauthammer just called Romney a NorthEast Liberal. I love Republican infighting.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 8:52:09 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerNate Silver is not a guru. All he did was take all of the data that was available and presented the numbers wherever they fell. It looks like his methods, common sense as they are, were vindicated.
Oh, c'mon. That's not right. Nate has built a very intricate regression model to use polling and economic data as predictive tools.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 8:54:46 PM
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Quote: avargovPete....I couldn't agree more. And it is unfortunate. Of course, if Romney would have won, the necessary changes would not have come either.
Yes. I said D.C. knowing all too well that I did not like either candidate for the US as a whole.
The only reason that I wanted Obama to win was a wager. I would have bet Romney if indicators pointed to him. Intrade was one indicator amongst many.
Forgetting the wager, the US has a rough road for half the population. Things change. Natural law.
Create your own luck...
November 6th, 2012 at 8:57:13 PM
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Quote: ams288Where the hell are all the guys who were absolutely positive Romney would win?! FOX News won't offer much solace tonight.
While I wasn't absolutely positive, I did think he would win. And I was wrong. I believed a Romney administration would be better for the economy- but now we'll never know. I'm not optimistic about the next fours years with regard to the economy under the current administration- let's hope I'm wrong about that, too. On the bright side, we should at least have more casinos built to try and deal with state budget deficits! Congrats to the Wizard for making a good bet!
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:00:39 PM
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With all the fat lady pics Mike posted, I'm thinking he had more money on the line tonight than I would have initially guessed.
:D Congrats!!
:D Congrats!!
November 6th, 2012 at 9:05:21 PM
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I am curious as the amount too :-). Not asking though. I would bet $100 it was more than mine and I bet.
Also, Congrats
Also, Congrats
November 6th, 2012 at 9:07:30 PM
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Quote: tringlomaneWith all the fat lady pics Mike posted, I'm thinking he had more money on the line tonight than I would have initially guessed.
:D Congrats!!
Thanks!!!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 9:08:38 PM
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Quote: bigpete88I am curious as the amount too :-).
I had about $21,000 bet on the election. Of course, I had to lay odds on Obama, so didn't win nearly that much.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 9:14:23 PM
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Quote: WizardI had about $21,000 bet on the election. Of course, I had to lay odds on Obama, so didn't win nearly that much.
Congrats, Mike. Great +EV bet, imo.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:27:16 PM
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BREAKING NEWS
Rasmussen Reports has just called the election for our new President of the United States, Mitt Romney!
Rasmussen Reports has just called the election for our new President of the United States, Mitt Romney!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 6th, 2012 at 9:36:39 PM
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Anybody else looking at these senate races? NV and ND are separated by a COMBINED TOTAL of 600 votes, with the democrat winning each race.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 9:38:40 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusAnybody else looking at these senate races? NV and ND are separated by a COMBINED TOTAL of 600 votes, with the democrat winning each race.
I am watching Nevada. Despite leaning democrat in my views, I voted against Shelley Berkley and am hoping she loses.
November 6th, 2012 at 9:44:52 PM
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Quote: kewljI am watching Nevada. Despite leaning democrat in my views, I voted against Shelley Berkley and am hoping she loses.
Heller seems like a good guy. And both of the candidates in ND are excellent. Every race should have such reasonable and thoughtful people involved.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 9:52:50 PM
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Quote: TheBigPaybakWhile I wasn't absolutely positive, I did think he would win. And I was wrong. I believed a Romney administration would be better for the economy- but now we'll never know. I'm not optimistic about the next fours years with regard to the economy under the current administration- let's hope I'm wrong about that, too. On the bright side, we should at least have more casinos built to try and deal with state budget deficits! Congrats to the Wizard for making a good bet!
Since we will be doing what we did the last 4 we should get more of the same-high unemployment, low growth, lack of business start-ups, and loads of money printing.
America, you just voted for the guy who never gave you a day of unemployment below 7.8% nor a deficit lower than $1 Trillion. Hope you enjoy it, more will come.
The difference this time is Obama does not have the House nor a killer majority in the Seante. He has proven himself unable to negotiate in any constructive way. Thus no new "stimulus" will be coming. In fact, taxes will be going up in 55 days, be ready!
Second terms are rarely better than the first, I expect no exception here. The Libyan Embassy thing may fester. Sandy is turning into Obama's Katrina. Either could cause problems. Or not. Or something new may blow up.
Now if you excuse me, I need to get ready for the coming recession. Should be here by Q3 of 2013.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
November 6th, 2012 at 10:01:35 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusOh, c'mon. That's not right. Nate has built a very intricate regression model to use polling and economic data as predictive tools.
I can't tell which EV totals Nate had as most likely, but it will be very interesting to see where the final total comes in on his list.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
November 6th, 2012 at 10:08:44 PM
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Quote: MathExtremistI can't tell which EV totals Nate had as most likely, but it will be very interesting to see where the final total comes in on his list.
332, followed by 303, followed by 347. 332 was about 20% likely based on his final simulation run.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 10:19:00 PM
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Quote: rdw4potus332, followed by 303, followed by 347. 332 was about 20% likely based on his final simulation run.
If so, then based on the current projection from Fox (and CNN), Nate was exactly right. Obama projects at 303 without Florida, 332 with, and that's the only uncalled state right now.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
