Decision 2012
November 6th, 2012 at 4:37:43 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerThis could be over early. Virginia is going in Obama's direction and there's still people waiting to vote in Obama strongholds.
Can you give me the web site you are looking at? MSNBC has the vote @ 59%/40% Romney...
November 6th, 2012 at 4:47:23 PM
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I see InTrade is still taking action. The current line equates to Obama -241, which is a big drop from yesterday. So, Romney is off to a good start.
Keep that crow pie warm -- I may have to eat a slice. Just let me have a scoop of ice cream with it.
Keep that crow pie warm -- I may have to eat a slice. Just let me have a scoop of ice cream with it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 4:50:21 PM
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Quote: RonCCan you give me the web site you are looking at? MSNBC has the vote @ 59%/40% Romney...
This is (roughly) what I see on CNN & CNN.com as well.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 4:54:12 PM
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Quote: WizardI see InTrade is still taking action. The current line equates to Obama -241, which is a big drop from yesterday. So, Romney is off to a good start.
...is it? It's lower than everyone else's line, but it always has been - according to their chart, it hasn't hit this level at close of business since the debates.
Also, who cares about the states called? They were all locks.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 4:57:43 PM
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bad signs for Romney:
Exit poll Ohio Obama +3, Virginia Obama +1, North Carolina 49-49. North carolina 49-49?? If North Carolina actual vote follows these exit polls and is that close romney is in big trouble, even if he narrowly wins NC. That means he is in big trouble elsewhere.
Florida results: The all important I-4 corrider across the most populated portion of the middle of the state, Obama is winning by almost identical margins as 2008. That is bad for Romney.
Exit poll Ohio Obama +3, Virginia Obama +1, North Carolina 49-49. North carolina 49-49?? If North Carolina actual vote follows these exit polls and is that close romney is in big trouble, even if he narrowly wins NC. That means he is in big trouble elsewhere.
Florida results: The all important I-4 corrider across the most populated portion of the middle of the state, Obama is winning by almost identical margins as 2008. That is bad for Romney.
November 6th, 2012 at 5:01:21 PM
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Quote: WizardI see InTrade is still taking action. The current line equates to Obama -241, which is a big drop from yesterday. So, Romney is off to a good start.
Keep that crow pie warm -- I may have to eat a slice. Just let me have a scoop of ice cream with it.
Intrade just had 10,000 for Obama at $7 and I refreshed and it went to 50. I think someone bought 10,000 shares or whatever they are called on Intrade.
November 6th, 2012 at 5:02:39 PM
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The people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney loses his "home" state of Massachusetts.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 5:03:36 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerThe people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney loses his "home" state of Massachusetts.
Classic
November 6th, 2012 at 5:06:15 PM
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I'm a big believer in the efficiency of the market. I trust that a lot more than polls. The betting line reflects where people actually put their money to back up their opinion.
That said, Obama is down even further, to an equivalent line of -227. I wonder how many people are just sitting there waiting to press the key on a bet as soon as a key state is called.
That said, Obama is down even further, to an equivalent line of -227. I wonder how many people are just sitting there waiting to press the key on a bet as soon as a key state is called.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 5:09:39 PM
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Romney says he only wrote one speech - a victory speech. And he took the time to count the words (1,1xx - I didn't catch the exact total). I guess he'll wing it later, then?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 5:14:46 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm a big believer in the efficiency of the market. I trust that a lot more than polls. The betting line reflects where people actually put their money to back up their opinion.
That said, Obama is down even further, to an equivalent line of -227. I wonder how many people are just sitting there waiting to press the key on a bet as soon as a key state is called.
What metric are you using? Because by the buy price, I'm looking at -240 and climbing. Low as betting markets go, but again, higher than it's been since early October.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 5:24:42 PM
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Quote: 24BingoWhat metric are you using? Because by the buy price, I'm looking at -240 and climbing. Low as betting markets go, but again, higher than it's been since early October.
I'm looking at this page. Right now it says:
Obama: 70.4%
Romney: 29.8%
To get the "American line" on Obama I take -100*Obama/Romney = -100*0.704/0.298=-236.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 5:27:27 PM
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Yep, that's the same page I'm looking at - also this one, though, which shows how narrow Intrade's lines have been all month, and the price itself, which was at 6.8* an hour or two ago.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 5:40:39 PM
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Florida is starting to look problematic for Romney. Almost 60% of vote counted and Obama is up 51-48% and the biggest democratic area of Miami-Dade has only reported 2% so far, so that has to add to Obama's lead. Not sure where Romney's votes are going to come from if he is going to make that up and win. Maybe it's NOT all about Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. lol
November 6th, 2012 at 5:54:44 PM
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I live near Miami and I never thought that Obama would win Florida but I could be wrong
November 6th, 2012 at 5:57:59 PM
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Quote: bigpete88I live near Miami and I never thought that Obama would win Florida but I could be wrong
I'm watching CBS News and they say Obama is up 1% with 2/3 of the vote counted in Florida.
InTrade line equivalent = -281, which is a big jump in Obama's favor.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 5:59:12 PM
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Holy hell, now look at it go.
One thing I find interesting is that they're giving him Virginia now... pretty sure they weren't this morning, nor was RCP, nor Silver.
One thing I find interesting is that they're giving him Virginia now... pretty sure they weren't this morning, nor was RCP, nor Silver.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:04:53 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm watching CBS News and they say Obama is up 1% with 2/3 of the vote counted in Florida.
InTrade line equivalent = -281, which is a big jump in Obama's favor.
Very Blue in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. North Florida is red. The places in Miami were stuffed with people to vote for days.
Last line I saw on 5dimes was Obama -540
November 6th, 2012 at 6:18:47 PM
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The people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney loses his "home" state of Michigan. I guess the trees weren't the right height after all.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 6:23:03 PM
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Aaaand it's at -900.
Oh! RCP just called PA, unsurprisingly, for Obama. So much for Barone.
Oh! RCP just called PA, unsurprisingly, for Obama. So much for Barone.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:28:53 PM
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Months ago, I put Florida in the Romney column. I think the president is going to win Florida. If he does. Game...set...match!
Incidentally. Pennsylvania and Michigan in play?? Both were called early for Obama. The repubs clearly were grasping. The one thing I just can't comprehend is I saw karl Rove on FOX 2 weeks ago saying Pa looked close, but the repubs chasing it was like chasing fools gold. Then a week later he was chasing it. Dumping money into Pa. And tonight here he sits, playing the part of the fool, having chased and got nothing.
Incidentally. Pennsylvania and Michigan in play?? Both were called early for Obama. The repubs clearly were grasping. The one thing I just can't comprehend is I saw karl Rove on FOX 2 weeks ago saying Pa looked close, but the repubs chasing it was like chasing fools gold. Then a week later he was chasing it. Dumping money into Pa. And tonight here he sits, playing the part of the fool, having chased and got nothing.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:30:47 PM
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Intrade at an equivalent of Obama -1217. I need to find an image of a fat lady singing...
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 6:31:46 PM
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I just did the Electoral vote count and I do not think that Obama needs Florida which is almost tied.
If Obama wins Colorado, Maryland, or Ohio, I have him going over 270 votes.
California is 55 votes. Blue state.
If Obama wins Colorado, Maryland, or Ohio, I have him going over 270 votes.
California is 55 votes. Blue state.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:34:39 PM
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Quote: bigpete88I just did the Electoral vote count and I do not think that Obama needs (Florida which is tied).
If Obama wins Colorado, Maryland, or Ohio, I have him going over 270 votes.
California is 55 votes. Blue state.
Right. Obama doesn't NEED florida. Romney NEEDS florida. If Obama wins florida it is all over. It is currently just about even, but the highest democratic areas of Miami-dade and brower counties still have only reported about half their votes.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:37:07 PM
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Quote: kewljRight. Obama doesn't NEED florida. Romney NEEDS florida. If Obama wins florida it is all over. It is currently just about even, but the highest democratic areas of Miami-dade and brower counties still have only reported about half their votes.
Broward County is where I live. People are still out the door in Miami and trying to vote and pissed. They have been standing for 3 hours. 5-8 hours over the last few days.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:37:40 PM
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The people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney/Ryan loses Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 6:43:14 PM
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Quote: bigpete88If Obama wins Colorado, Maryland, or Ohio, I have him going over 270 votes.
No need to put Maryland in that list. That is one of the bluest states there is.
Intrade price =~ -1696
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 6:43:25 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerThe people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney/Ryan loses Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.
Idiotic comment..... They 'hate' him? No.... the are choosing a Democrat over a Republican..... nothing more, nothing less....
So if 53 % vote against him they 'hate' him, but if it was only 48% against him they don't 'hate' him? Gimme a break....
November 6th, 2012 at 6:44:14 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerThe people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney/Ryan loses Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.
So the fact that Mass and Wisc are states that usually go for the Democrats shows that? Ryan won a Congressional district, not a statewide election. Romney won a statewide election but had to work with Democrats, who controlled the Congress.
I'm not surprised at all by these votes or by the outcome thus far. Disappointed? U betcha!! Do I hope it changes over the evening? Of course!! At the end of EVERY day, I'm comfortable with who I am and the fact that we will still be Americans tomorrow, too.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:55:09 PM
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The people that know him the best hate him the most. Romney loses his "home" state of New Hampshire.
If Obama wins any one of the following states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada or Colorado, the Kenyan Commie, Barack HUSSEIN Obama is re-elected President of the United States of America.
If Obama wins any one of the following states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada or Colorado, the Kenyan Commie, Barack HUSSEIN Obama is re-elected President of the United States of America.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 6:56:45 PM
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I'm enjoying watching Fox News tonight.
I think this is a win for data, data masters, statisticians. Bluffing, magical thinking, psy warfare, not so much.
I think this is a win for data, data masters, statisticians. Bluffing, magical thinking, psy warfare, not so much.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:58:13 PM
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It looks over to me. Florida is going to go to Obama.
November 6th, 2012 at 6:59:56 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerObama... the Kenyan Commie.
I just want you to be remembered for that comment.
Intrade suggests Obama has 95% chance of winning. I'm just waiting for CBS to call OH, FL, or VA for Obama to call it over. Any minute now.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 7:03:55 PM
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Quote: WizardI just want you to be remembered for that comment.
Intrade suggests Obama has 95% chance of winning. I'm just waiting for CBS to call OH, FL, or VA for Obama to call it over. Any minute now.
They are still voting in Florida even though they closed 3 hours ago. That's how long the lines were.
Always something screwed up here for an election. Expected.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:06:43 PM
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Quote: kewljIt looks over to me. Florida is going to go to Obama.
To me, this is pretty disappointing. All the confidence, all the bravado of the Romney camp. They said they had Ohio. They said they could play in WI and MI and PA. Now we find out they couldn't even win FL? I want the last 4 months of my life back.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 7:09:28 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusTo me, this is pretty disappointing. All the confidence, all the bravado of the Romney camp. They said they had Ohio. They said they could play in WI and MI and PA. Now we find out they couldn't even win FL? I want the last 4 months of my life back.
I don't fault the Romney camp for that. That is their job! I do fault these republican leaning pollsters, like Karl Rove, Dick Morris and Rasmussen. To me they have lost all credibility for future elections.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:14:48 PM
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Quote: kewljI don't fault the Romney camp for that. That is their job! I do fault these republican leaning pollsters, like Karl Rove, Dick Morris and Rasmussen. To me they have lost all credibility for future elections.
Maybe it was their job. But they skipped the step where FL was a must win. Before they ever talked about PA, they needed to make sure that FL wasn't close. It's theoretically possible to win without OH, WI, MI, or PA. It's not possible to win without FL AND MI and PA.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
November 6th, 2012 at 7:15:19 PM
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Quote: kewljI don't fault the Romney camp for that. That is their job! I do fault these republican leaning pollsters, like Karl Rove, Dick Morris and Rasmussen. To me they have lost all credibility for future elections.
I was thinking the same thing about that bunch on Fox. In their defense, Romney is ahead in the popular vote.
But we know it takes Electoral votes to win.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:17:25 PM
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I have to wonder how many of those half gallons of Vodka EvenBob has have been emptied already tonight? Must be tough to talk all that smack for months, and get d#$%slapped on election night.
I am anxious to see how he explains this off......
I am anxious to see how he explains this off......
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
November 6th, 2012 at 7:22:48 PM
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I have a new sig :)Quote: WizardI just want you to be remembered for that comment.
(sigh, let me try that again)
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 7:23:01 PM
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Looking at florida votes totals I don't care what anyone says, every damn vote counts sometimes. Leastwise if you don't want to sit all night digging your fingernails into your furniture watching results.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:24:23 PM
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I have a new sig :)Quote: WizardI just want you to be remembered for that comment.
??? I can't get my new sig line to show up!! I just had my first sad of the evening.
I figured it out, now I'll be happy again.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
November 6th, 2012 at 7:31:08 PM
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Quote: rxwineLooking at florida votes totals I don't care what anyone says, every damn vote counts sometimes. Leastwise if you don't want to sit all night digging your fingernails into your furniture watching results.
I live in South Florida and they stopped the line to vote 3.5 hours ago and there is still a line (in Miami). I have the local news on. They will be counting late. 10:30 PM here now.
How many elections has Florida screwed something up? Too many.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:42:07 PM
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Quote: bigpete88I was thinking the same thing about that bunch on Fox. In their defense, Romney is ahead in the popular vote.
But we know it takes Electoral votes to win.
Yeah but California has yet to even play. :)
November 6th, 2012 at 7:45:15 PM
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Here's all you need to know. Romney campaign told us Pa and Michigan were close. they were wrong. They were both called just minutes after the polls closed. The Romney camp said North Carolina and Florida were in the bag. 3 hours after the polls closed, neither has been called. That in itself would be a bad sign.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:45:32 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerI have a new sig :)
Thank you. At least you're honest.
Intrade =~ -1330 Obama, a move in Romney's favor.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 6th, 2012 at 7:47:30 PM
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So.
Romney hasn't yet clinched a single battleground state.
Obama has New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, in addition to the 201 votes he already had locked up. Ohio will tie it up on its own; this election may end before Florida reports in one way or the other.
Romney hasn't yet clinched a single battleground state.
Obama has New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, in addition to the 201 votes he already had locked up. Ohio will tie it up on its own; this election may end before Florida reports in one way or the other.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 7:51:17 PM
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Hopefully tonight will be the beginning of the end of the Republican war on facts.
THE POLLS DON'T LIE. Enough with this unskewing, outdated model bullshit.
THE POLLS DON'T LIE. Enough with this unskewing, outdated model bullshit.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
November 6th, 2012 at 7:55:05 PM
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The local news in Florida just said that they will be counting all night and will not have results until tomorrow. A bunch of mail in votes came in today too. People are pissed here. Expected. Miami is the problem. People are still in line to vote. 11 East Coast Time. The local news reporter is skewing the Voting Supervisor...ha ha ha
November 6th, 2012 at 7:55:08 PM
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Quote: 24BingoSo.
Romney hasn't yet clinched a single battleground state.
No he hasn't. lol I think he may lose every single one of them. I still think he will lose North Carolina. Romney is ahead by 60,000 votes, but 2 big democratic areas have only just begun to report their results. If Romney hangs on it will be close.
