Casinos don't cheat.....prove it.

Quote: whorl whiz

Overall, nice work. B-plus.

B+, what, are you nuts??? I claim you just "made your life up" to make me wrong ... you need to prove I am wrong!

No, really, I'm leaping off the deep end here ...

Quote: forest feeding zoom zoomer ...

Since you would otherwise live in an agony of speculation ...

Now I can sleep peacefully, thank you ...

Beige, I think I'll paint the ceiling beige ...

--Dorothy

Headlock

You need to change your betting strategy, The PL and two come bets will get you every time! Try reading Sam Grafstein Craps
“The Dice Doctor”

This might help out your betting!

You also might want to do a search on cheating in craps, and biased dice! To see what you can find there is information out there about the problem!

I've worked in casino's for over 30 years all over the world and I have never seen even a hint of cheating by the house.

Quote: appistappis

I've worked in casino's for over 30 years all over the world and I have never seen even a hint of cheating by the house.

You worked in casino's what? Casino's restaurants? Casino's restrooms? Casino's hotel lobbies? (I realize that the correct spelling should be "casinos'".)

It looks like this topic has been beaten to death, but to close it for myself I have this to say......

In spite of all the compelling arguments, and my own predilection to believe otherwise, I feel I have been cheated at craps by a casino. Not one single event, but a series of events over a period of time.

I've convinced myself.

I play almost all the time at one particular casino. I have a relationship with a casino host, I know many of the employees at the casino, may of the patrons, and in general I like to go there. I get free rooms and other comps.

But I'm too predictable. I always use my players card. I always play PL and come bets with odds. The casino knows by know approximately how much I'm willing to lose. If anyone is an easy mark, I'm it.

From now on, I will not play craps there. When I play at other casinos, I will no longer use my players card. I'm going to buy in for much lower sums, perhaps as little as $100. I'm going to vary my play so that I'm not so predictable.

Addendum: I want to thank mlk654321 for, seemingly, standing at my side during my darkest hour. Your posts are quite entertaining and informative. You are my white knight.

Quote: superrick

DorothyGale

I think you got this one wrong! When you get a ticket driving down the road for lets just say speeding, the burden of proof is on you. ...
... but you have to prove that you did not commit a crime, and just think about how many innocence people have been sent to jail because they didn’t have the funds to defend them self.

has this been debunked yet? if not

Quote:

In criminal litigation, the burden of proof is always on the state. The state must prove that the defendant is guilty. The defendant is assumed to be innocent; the defendant needs to prove nothing. (There are exceptions. If the defendant wishes to claim that he/she is insane, and therefore not guilty, the defendant bears the burden of proving his/her insanity. Other exceptions include defendants who claim self-defense or duress.)

http://www.rbs2.com/cc.htm

I know that my story of a casino cheating me will be poo-pooed by some, but I will tell it anyways. It happened several months ago.

I had received an offer in the mail from a casino. (I will not name it, but it starts with a P, and ends in a rimm.) The offer was for two free nights, Friday and Saturday, and $100 in gift cards at the attached mall. I called and booked the reservation.

Upon arriving on Friday night around 11:30pm, I checked into the hotel. Instead of the king bed that I had reserved, I received two queen beds. Cheat #1.

I then proceeded to the player's club desk with my paperwork. After waiting for about five minutes, I received a voucher to take with me to the cashier's cage. I proceeded there, and after another five minutes, I received ONE gift card for $100. The original offer said I would receive gift cards, with an s, meaning I should have received more than one. I was expecting to get two cards in the amount of $50 each, but instead only received one with an amount of $100. Cheat #2.

The mall was closed by this time, so we went to bed. As shopping is not my passion, my girlfriend got up early the next morning to head to the mall and use the gift card. After around 15 minutes of shopping, she ended up finding a purse she wanted to buy. The store was offering a special that day with some sort of discount. The original price of the bag was $300, but with the discount and the gift card, she ended up paying a little over $30. $30! So much for $100 in free shopping. Cheat #3.

I decided we shouldn't stick around to see how else they would cheat us, so we checked out and headed home. Much better to stay in Phoenix where at least you know where all the cheats are coming from.

Quote: konceptum

I know that my story of a casino cheating me will be poo-pooed by some, but I will tell it anyways. It happened several months ago.

I had received an offer in the mail from a casino. (I will not name it, but it starts with a P, and ends in a rimm.) The offer was for two free nights, Friday and Saturday, and $100 in gift cards at the attached mall. I called and booked the reservation.

Upon arriving on Friday night around 11:30pm, I checked into the hotel. Instead of the king bed that I had reserved, I received two queen beds. Cheat #1.

I then proceeded to the player's club desk with my paperwork. After waiting for about five minutes, I received a voucher to take with me to the cashier's cage. I proceeded there, and after another five minutes, I received ONE gift card for $100. The original offer said I would receive gift cards, with an s, meaning I should have received more than one. I was expecting to get two cards in the amount of $50 each, but instead only received one with an amount of $100. Cheat #2.

The mall was closed by this time, so we went to bed. As shopping is not my passion, my girlfriend got up early the next morning to head to the mall and use the gift card. After around 15 minutes of shopping, she ended up finding a purse she wanted to buy. The store was offering a special that day with some sort of discount. The original price of the bag was $300, but with the discount and the gift card, she ended up paying a little over $30. $30! So much for $100 in free shopping. Cheat #3.

I decided we shouldn't stick around to see how else they would cheat us, so we checked out and headed home. Much better to stay in Phoenix where at least you know where all the cheats are coming from.

Actually, that sounds pretty generous. You got two free nights and a $100 gift card. Although they were worth less than you expected, they were still worth something. And you got it for free. Something about gift horses...? I dunno.

FWIW, I like the Terrible's properties and their promotions are quite good. I have not felt cheated by them -- they're no Wynn, that's for sure, but I find them honest.

Quote: konceptum

I know that my story of a casino cheating me will be poo-pooed by some, but I will tell it anyways. It happened several months ago.

I had received an offer in the mail from a casino. (I will not name it, but it starts with a P, and ends in a rimm.) The offer was for two free nights, Friday and Saturday, and $100 in gift cards at the attached mall. I called and booked the reservation.

Upon arriving on Friday night around 11:30pm, I checked into the hotel. Instead of the king bed that I had reserved, I received two queen beds. Cheat #1.

I then proceeded to the player's club desk with my paperwork. After waiting for about five minutes, I received a voucher to take with me to the cashier's cage. I proceeded there, and after another five minutes, I received ONE gift card for $100. The original offer said I would receive gift cards, with an s, meaning I should have received more than one. I was expecting to get two cards in the amount of $50 each, but instead only received one with an amount of $100. Cheat #2.

The mall was closed by this time, so we went to bed. As shopping is not my passion, my girlfriend got up early the next morning to head to the mall and use the gift card. After around 15 minutes of shopping, she ended up finding a purse she wanted to buy. The store was offering a special that day with some sort of discount. The original price of the bag was $300, but with the discount and the gift card, she ended up paying a little over $30. $30! So much for $100 in free shopping. Cheat #3.

I decided we shouldn't stick around to see how else they would cheat us, so we checked out and headed home. Much better to stay in Phoenix where at least you know where all the cheats are coming from.

This is just the sort of cheating I suspected! Not only virtually undetectable, you can't prove you were cheated! Where is the deterrent to this sort of thing?

deleted

Quote: teddys

Actually, that sounds pretty generous. You got two free nights and a $100 gift card. Although they were worth less than you expected, they were still worth something. And you got it for free. Something about gift horses...? I dunno.

FWIW, I like the Terrible's properties and their promotions are quite good. I have not felt cheated by them -- they're no Wynn, that's for sure, but I find them honest.

I can't see your wink, so I don't know if you are taking konceptum's post literally or not.

I thought more about your "90% sure they push the button to track dealers speed" comment, and it just doesn't seem likely. Why replace the good old count the shuffles, multiply by average hands method with a button? I am assuming there is some cost to installing the button. I imagine the dealer may sometimes forget to push the button, maybe once per shoe, maybe 5 times, who knows? In any event it's unlikely to be more accurate.

Headlock

I didn’t catch where you played at, and it could it could make a difference!

Mkl654321

Appistappis is a dealer in Canada, and I am on your side about how a casino might cheat, but please tell what one missed spelled word has to do with, what a guy writes?

I know first hand that when you write anything about the casinos might be cheating you are called a loser, you don’t know how to play the game, and you are mad because you lost!! Everybody just wants to stick their heads in the sand and say the casinos would never cheat.

With the biased dice, nobody that I know ever said the dice were shaved, just that the casinos are now buying cheap dice that are not balanced. Do they know that we might consider that cheating, as most other states have rules on how the dice must be, and one of them is that they must be balanced?

In Nevada there are no rules on dice and the game of craps, but the do have rules for Jai Alai .

In Nevada if you do have a problem you can call the Gaming Board Enforcement Division 24 hours a day at 702-486-2020
They will send a agent to look at the tapes to see what happened!

There are a lot of great people that works in the casino industry, and from what I have been told Appistappis is one of them!

Here is a blog on the subject of bad dice: Just Email the guy that runs it if you want more information about the subject!

http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/

I'm bad at detecting sarcasm.

The one time I've seen the button it was like a doorbell-type button and the dealer pressed it once before every hand. I just don't see how that could input how much every player is betting. But that's what I was told it was there for--counting dealer speed.

Quote: teddys

I'm bad at detecting sarcasm.

The one time I've seen the button it was like a doorbell-type button and the dealer pressed it once before every hand. I just don't see how that could input how much every player is betting. But that's what I was told it was there for--counting dealer speed.

Fair enough. I will be checking on this in the next few weeks and will post my findings.

At the casino I play at most frequently, they do have RFID in the chips. When a player cashes chips at the cashier cage, they openly place the chips on a device that reads the chip values and displays the total dollar amount.

Quote: superrick

Headlock

Mkl654321

Appistappis is a dealer in Canada, and I am on your side about how a casino might cheat, but please tell what one missed spelled word has to do with, what a guy writes?

It wasn't a misspelling, it was a misusage of the possessive, The apostrophe did not belong in a simple plural. Such errors show that a writer/poster isn't paying attention to what he writes. That lowers the perception others have of his expression.

It's not unlike how I would regard a sign that said "RELIABLE USED CAR'S". The sign might tell me that the dealer is selling a good product, but it also tells me that he's either illiterate or careless (and, if an employee lettered the sign, he either doesn't realize the error or doesn't want to bother to correct it--again, not a good sign).

I believe that such things matter; what can I tell ya, I'm an English teacher.

I saw a sign yesterday. "Lunch's $3.99".

Mkl654321

First off thanks for being a teacher, we need more like you that have a passion for teaching! I live in the worst state for education; we are at the bottom of the list every year. Because here is Nevada most of the funding comes from the casinos, and they shut down every bill for education that comes up. They don’t want to pay more taxes, and I guess they don’t need well-educated people for their lower paying jobs!

I am sure that you could have a field day, as my wife does with my writing, I tell her all the time that is why I married her, so she could correct my English, and spelling!

After all I do have to use the dictionary, and some times it’s just this damn key-board, with its sticking keys, but it does give me a chance to proof read what I write! I would go out and buy a new key-board but I love this one!

Trying to prove anything about the casinos is almost impossible, and everybody will call you a loser for saying you think something is wrong in fantasy land. The casinos have been caught cheating in the pass, and with this economy who knows. Could they get away with it, I think so, but that is just my opinion.
Keep digging and you might find something!

Quote: Headlock

"Lunch's $3.99"

"Lunch is three ninety-nine"

What's the big deal?

Quote: Headlock

At the casino I play at most frequently, they do have RFID in the chips. When a player cashes chips at the cashier cage, they openly place the chips on a device that reads the chip values and displays the total dollar amount.

Is that small as well as high-value checks?

Quote: mkl654321

It wasn't a misspelling, it was a misusage of the possessive, The apostrophe did not belong in a simple plural. Such errors show that a writer/poster isn't paying attention to what he writes. That lowers the perception others have of his expression.

It's not unlike how I would regard a sign that said "RELIABLE USED CAR'S". The sign might tell me that the dealer is selling a good product, but it also tells me that he's either illiterate or careless (and, if an employee lettered the sign, he either doesn't realize the error or doesn't want to bother to correct it--again, not a good sign).

I believe that such things matter; what can I tell ya, I'm an English teacher.

My father was an English teacher for 34 years, so I grew up with extra attention paid to grammar. I taught Communications at a high school for a few years as well. However, while my father enjoyed correcting the family and his students, there were plenty of times he'd bite his tongue. One of my favorite jokes/stories he told was:

A guy walks into a high class restaurant and says to the host, "Hey, buddy, where's the bathroom at?" The host replies, "Sir, we do not end our sentences with prepositions."
"Oh, sorry, my mistake. Where's the bathroom at asshole?"

Quote: superrick

With the biased dice, nobody that I know ever said the dice were shaved, just that the casinos are now buying cheap dice that are not balanced.
http://crapsadvantageplayers.blogspot.com/

If that Website, you or anyone else knows of any casinos using unbalanced dice, a coterie of players would very much like to know their names. Lacking that, it has to stand as just more unsubstantiated posting.

Quote: SanchoPanza

If that Website, you or anyone else knows of any casinos using unbalanced dice, a coterie of players would very much like to know their names. Lacking that, it has to stand as just more unsubstantiated posting.

Absolutely. It turns the crazy, mumbling, scribbling people who write down every roll into the smartest people in the house! Taking advantage of unbalanced dice could definitely shift the odds to the player.

Quote: superrick

Mkl654321

First off thanks for being a teacher, we need more like you that have a passion for teaching! I live in the worst state for education; we are at the bottom of the list every year. Because here is Nevada most of the funding comes from the casinos, and they shut down every bill for education that comes up. They don’t want to pay more taxes, and I guess they don’t need well-educated people for their lower paying jobs!

Cheer up, you only live in the 48th worst state for education (as shown by per capita educational funding, as well as student test scores). You are ahead of Mississippi and Hawaii. Interestingly enough, Hawaii has occupied dead last for a number of years.

I think one thing that hurts Las Vegas schools badly is that the entire valley--Las Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, Green Valley, Summerlin--is one single gigantic school district. It's by far the largest in the nation, serving (if that's the word) over three million people! How can any organization that huge and unwieldy get anything done?

Quote: cclub79

My father was an English teacher for 34 years, so I grew up with extra attention paid to grammar. I taught Communications at a high school for a few years as well. However, while my father enjoyed correcting the family and his students, there were plenty of times he'd bite his tongue. One of my favorite jokes/stories he told was:

A guy walks into a high class restaurant and says to the host, "Hey, buddy, where's the bathroom at?" The host replies, "Sir, we do not end our sentences with prepositions."
"Oh, sorry, my mistake. Where's the bathroom at asshole?"

That's the kind of foolishness that Winston Churchill said up with which he would not put.

Quote: mkl654321

It wasn't a misspelling, it was a misusage of the possessive, The apostrophe did not belong in a simple plural. Such errors show that a writer/poster isn't paying attention to what he writes. That lowers the perception others have of his expression.

By the way, the problem is if we put up posts (like this one, sadly, and I'll admit I'm guilty of this occasionally, too) that continue to derail threads for every single typo, misspelling, or grammatical error, we pull the topic away from it's intended discussion. Yes, we can all see misused words, and perhaps it lowers the perception others have of someone's expression. But feeling the need to correct every small error is itself altering the perception others have of THAT person's expression.

C'est la vie. The board is not what it used to be. It's gone from casual, ALWAYS friendly gaming discussions about math to lots of attacks and holier than thou attitudes and "Crossfire"-type political arguments. The personal messaging can't come soon enough. Perhaps we can create our own "Journa-list".

Quote: cclub79

By the way, the problem is if we put up posts (like this one, sadly, and I'll admit I'm guilty of this occasionally, too) that continue to derail threads for every single typo, misspelling, or grammatical error, we pull the topic away from it's intended discussion. Yes, we can all see misused words, and perhaps it lowers the perception others have of someone's expression. But feeling the need to correct every small error is itself altering the perception others have of THAT person's expression.

C'est la vie. The board is not what it used to be. It's gone from casual, ALWAYS friendly gaming discussions about math to lots of attacks and holier than thou attitudes and "Crossfire"-type political arguments. The personal messaging can't come soon enough. Perhaps we can create our own "Journa-list".

You misspelled "its".

SanchoPanza

I will tell you like it is, the next time you walk into any casino in Vegas, just ask to see the dice balanced, then please tell me where you found one that still has a balancer!

I can tell you positively, that one of the manufacture of dice here in Vegas does not balance the dice before they are sold! Three of us walked in and had a meeting with the manufacture, asking about the quality control measures they had in place.

We were shown how they measure the dice with an outside micrometer , but when asked if they balanced the dice the answer was no, why should they. They didn’t even have a balancer in the building! We asked if we could balance the dice and the answer was yes. So we put three or four sticks of their new dice on the balancer we brought with us, and they were all out of balance, coming to a rest the same way on every die we balanced!

Now after that meeting I could not tell you if they went out a bought a balancer or are still just shipping the dice with out balancing the dice.

Most dice that the casinos are now using are not made in the good old USA , so who knows if they even have quality control! Years ago you would see the suits balancing the dice before they went into play that does not happen any more.

You can take it or leave it, but just ask a suit to balance the dice in front of you, and see what kind of answer you get!

With that said, I think this was about casinos cheating, remember I am not saying they a cheating just using cheap dice!
I gave you a link as to where you can start, there are other sites. Now let's get back to the cheating part of this thread!

Quote: mkl654321

You misspelled "its".

I pity you're students.

Quote: rick

any casino in Veags,

Never heard of the place. You lose 5 credibility points.

maybe the definition of cheating needs to be defined......in a casino i worked for in the caribbean (I was a floor supervisor) we had the job of testing the dice before they were put into play. The balance and calipre test...on one occasion i found a die out of balance, told my boss the pit, who said nobody will know the difference and we put that die into play.....i don't consider that cheating by the casino, just indifference by one of the employees.

Quote: Calder

"Lunch is three ninety-nine"

What's the big deal?

I thought of that as well, but for some reason I don't think that is the proper usage.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Is that small as well as high-value checks?

All the way down to $5.

Quote: cclub79

I pity you're students.

Perhaps, but they will leave my class knowing how to spell and how to parse a sentence. That will serve them well later on.

Quote: Headlock

I thought of that as well, but for some reason I don't think that is the proper usage.

Lunch: $3.99
Lunch is $3.99
Lunch special! $3.99
$3.99 Lunch
$5 Lunch--$1.01 discount for carbon-based life forms

Well, now that I've wasted an hour or so of my life reading most of this meandering thread (no blame implied, no one's fault but my own), I feel I've earned the right to post my opinion.

Math can only take us so far. We can say a coin flip is 50/50 and we would expect 50% heads and 50% tails in X number of trials, but that's on average, over the long-term, whatever that means. If we want, we can use the statistics to calculate the probability of an exact 50/50 distribution over Y number of trials, but that's as close as we can get.

The fact is no one can prove cheating based on personal experience because ANY number of trials less than infinity is at least somewhat insufficient. The bell curve goes on forever in either direction. A million, billion, or trillion pass line wins or losses in a row is possible, though extremely unlikely. Of course, if it actually happened it would almost certainly have to be some kind of scam, but the upshot of that concept is that it takes a long time to get into the "long term." How many trials would we need to get within 1 standard deviation of the mean at, say, a 95% confidence level on the coin flip? Someone who's better at statistics than me could answer precisely, but I bet it's more than you think, and there would still be a 5% chance of an outlying result. And that's only with 2 possible outcomes.

So when people say, "I've lost 20 sessions in a row, they must be cheating!" or claim they've seen "impossible" runs of hot or cold dice, chances are the sample size they're considering is insufficient.

Personally, the longest "hot roll" I think I've seen was maybe an hour and a half. How many rolls was that? Could they get in a roll every 30 seconds? Doubtful, especially once the place bets and sucker bets start piling up due to the hot shooter. Assume they could, even then you're only talking about 180 rolls, max.

As for gaming control in its various forms, I don't believe I've ever personally witnessed someone from an oversight entity (NGC, etc.) on the floor checking dice or cards, and I've never seen anyone spin a die for balance, except on TV. I've seen dealers fan out cards face up and check for each card on new or re-used decks, and I've seen dealers remove cards with any tiny defect whatsoever from play. I've seen pit bosses remove dice from play that have been damaged in any way whatsoever, and remove dice from play that have left the table at the player's request (only to be re-used later I'm sure).

I'm confident that 99% of dealers are honest people who just want to do their job and go home, just like most people everywhere. I'm also confident that there are dealers who have cheated players/colluded/cheated the house/cheated their co-workers out of tips. I don't buy that such activity is as rampant as some in this thread have suggested. It wouldn't be all that hard for an investigative reporter to bug someone to record the alleged admissions of guilt that occur at breaks as some have suggested, and others have mentioned that there would likely have been a whistle-blower by now if such activity was truly out of control. Dealers don't make great money in most parts of the country, and the opportunity to expose their employer and possibly earn the aforementioned TV appearances/book deals/whatever would be great incentive.

I cannot prove that casinos don't cheat, and no one else here has proven that they do, as far as I'm concerned. We simply have no evidence. If someone digs up an article or an NGC report that indicates a casino or employee was knowingly involved in a scam to steal from patrons, I'd be very interested to see it. I'd also be interested to see a documented case where an employee was caught colluding with another player. If such documents don't exist then I might be more suspect of the oversight agencies, as I'm sure some dealers have not been able to resist the temptation. The question, as originally posed by OP, is are the oversight agencies doing enough?

Quote: scudder

Math can only take us so far. We can say a coin flip is 50/50 and we would expect 50% heads and 50% tails in X number of trials, but that's on average, over the long-term, whatever that means. If we want, we can use the statistics to calculate the probability of an exact 50/50 distribution over Y number of trials, but that's as close as we can get.

The fact is no one can prove cheating based on personal experience because ANY number of trials less than infinity is at least somewhat insufficient.

If I lost 600 hands of blackjack in a row, that would not be absolute evidence that I had been cheated--I COULD have simply been very, very, very, very, very, very, very unlucky. If I flip a coin and it comes up "heads" fifty times in a row, there isn't anything NECESSARILY wrong with the coin.

Since we rarely have ironclad proof of cheating (in my own personal experience, I have observed blatant cheating right in front of me, but I lacked a recording device, so such experience only constitutes evidence for myself), we have to rely on empirical and inferential evidence. You bring up the "insufficient sample size" argument, which is both somewhat tired and somewhat patronizing, as it implies that the person who suspects that he has been cheated is merely misinterpreting random negative fluctuations. Well, at some point before we go broke, our cumulative suspicions MUST acquire enough weight so that we allow them the practical equivalence to direct evidence. I lost ten hands in a row. Was I cheated? Probably not. Twenty? Possibly. Fifty? A real possibility. Six hundred? A near-certainty.

As a practical matter, we would (and should) all stop playing long before a losing streak becomes so prolonged that it almost certainly is NOT just bad luck. In any case, such a cheating tactic would both be too obvious, and unnecessary. Winning three out of every five hands would do nicely to book a big win for the house, and would not arouse any suspicion at all.

Quote: mkl654321

If I lost 600 hands of blackjack in a row, that would not be absolute evidence that I had been cheated--I COULD have simply been very, very, very, very, very, very, very unlucky. If I flip a coin and it comes up "heads" fifty times in a row, there isn't anything NECESSARILY wrong with the coin.

[...]

I lost ten hands in a row. Was I cheated? Probably not. Twenty? Possibly. Fifty? A real possibility. Six hundred? A near-certainty.

As a practical matter, we would (and should) all stop playing long before a losing streak becomes so prolonged that it almost certainly is NOT just bad luck. In any case, such a cheating tactic would both be too obvious, and unnecessary. Winning three out of every five hands would do nicely to book a big win for the house, and would not arouse any suspicion at all.

Exactly. All I was saying was that there is often a big difference between the statistical probability of something happening and the actual outcomes that we experience as gamblers. Many, many people cite this as evidence of cheating, either through a misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities or the limitations of probability in predicting actual results.

scudder

Well try this one on for size, then look up Mr Taylor he got 10 years for his part. There is a big list of casino workers that have cheated with players! What do you think everybody that works for the casinos are angels; give us all a break with that assumption!

http://www.norwichbulletin.com/casinos/x1526468119/N-Y-man-accused-of-being-a-part-of-craps-scheme-at-Foxwoods

Just go on-line and look up cheating in casinos, most of the time it’s players, but the temptation is just to strong, some times for the casino personal! I would like to think that on-body would cheat in life, but then again I am not that naïve!

Then go back and waste some more of your time, rereading this thread, there are links to the gaming boards, about cheating. You got one thing right 95% of all the dealers are honest people, and just trying to make a living.

People in all walks of life cheat everyday, which goes with every kind of business there is, right down to the preachers, and let’s not forget the politicians. We do not live in a perfect world! There might not be anyone in the Nevada government that would want to see the casinos get busted for cheating, just about all our taxes come from gaming.

Most players will never stay at a table long enough to know if they were cheated, because they would be out of money. The other thing is on a craps table the guy standing next to you couldn’t tell you what the last seven out was, let alone all the sevens that were made in the last few hours. All they know is the lost, and now they are out of money, time for them to move on!

If you lose 50 pass line bets in a row there is something wrong, and if this happens every time you walk into the same casino, you have a problem! Let’s get real here, you are going to have players that lose every time they walk into a casino, they don’t have a clue as to what they are doing. I want to thank them all; they keep the game going, without them I couldn’t play craps. If there was just winners there would be no games to play.

The difference is when you have a table full of players that know about the game, and is losing every time they play, there just might be a problem! I have seen this happened, and they all gave up on the game. Five years ago there were 6 guys that would play everyday in a local casino. They all had years of playing craps, and were winning , not all the times but enough to keep them playing! They all started to lose about the same time, and got to the point where they had to give the game up because they didn’t want to go to a different casino. None of them could win any more.

I know that they were getting up there in years, but it didn’t have anything to do with that as there was a few that were younger. I still see a few of them from time to time, when we go out to eat in that casino, and every time they tell me the same thing. They lose every time they play there!

Damn a five-year losing streak, I think I will loan them some books on the game of craps, or better yet just give them a map, on how to get to a different casino!

amended

Quote: scudder

Quote: mkl654321

If I lost 600 hands of blackjack in a row, that would not be absolute evidence that I had been cheated--I COULD have simply been very, very, very, very, very, very, very unlucky. If I flip a coin and it comes up "heads" fifty times in a row, there isn't anything NECESSARILY wrong with the coin.

[...]

I lost ten hands in a row. Was I cheated? Probably not. Twenty? Possibly. Fifty? A real possibility. Six hundred? A near-certainty.

As a practical matter, we would (and should) all stop playing long before a losing streak becomes so prolonged that it almost certainly is NOT just bad luck. In any case, such a cheating tactic would both be too obvious, and unnecessary. Winning three out of every five hands would do nicely to book a big win for the house, and would not arouse any suspicion at all.

Exactly. All I was saying was that there is often a big difference between the statistical probability of something happening and the actual outcomes that we experience as gamblers. Many, many people cite this as evidence of cheating, either through a misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities or the limitations of probability in predicting actual results.

I think the problem is how frequently you could reasonably expect these abnormal events to occur.

Quote: chook

I think the problem is how frequently you could reasonably expect these abnormal events to occur.

But ay, there's the rub. By definition, abnormal events won't occur very frequently, so we'll lack a sufficient sample size to draw a definitive conclusion in time to save ourselves. An abnormal event occuring twice, or three times as often as it "should", isn't by itself cause for suspicion unless it's SO abnormal that its happening even a second time is suspect. If Jessica Alba comes up to me on the street, leaps on me, rips my clothes off, and rapes me right there on the sidewalk, that's a statistical aberration. If she does that next week to me in the same location, that's a strange coincidence. If she does it the next week too, something suspicious is DEFINITELY going on.

(Part of the value of my posts is the relevant, real-life examples I provide.)

Quote: mkl654321

Quote: chook

I think the problem is how frequently you could reasonably expect these abnormal events to occur.

But ay, there's the rub. By definition, abnormal events won't occur very frequently, so we'll lack a sufficient sample size to draw a definitive conclusion in time to save ourselves. An abnormal event occuring twice, or three times as often as it "should", isn't by itself cause for suspicion unless it's SO abnormal that its happening even a second time is suspect. If Jessica Alba comes up to me on the street, leaps on me, rips my clothes off, and rapes me right there on the sidewalk, that's a statistical aberration. If she does that next week to me in the same location, that's a strange coincidence. If she does it the next week too, something suspicious is DEFINITELY going on.

(Part of the value of my posts is the relevant, real-life examples I provide.)

I think you've (perhaps in passing :)) made another point. The fact that an unusual event is happening is not nearly as important as WHY it's happening, and for that you'd need to look outside of mathematics. Perhaps at the hidden camera in the breakroom :)

Quote: mkl654321

Quote: chook

I think the problem is how frequently you could reasonably expect these abnormal events to occur.

But ay, there's the rub. By definition, abnormal events won't occur very frequently, so we'll lack a sufficient sample size to draw a definitive conclusion in time to save ourselves. An abnormal event occuring twice, or three times as often as it "should", isn't by itself cause for suspicion unless it's SO abnormal that its happening even a second time is suspect. If Jessica Alba comes up to me on the street, leaps on me, rips my clothes off, and rapes me right there on the sidewalk, that's a statistical aberration. If she does that next week to me in the same location, that's a strange coincidence. If she does it the next week too, something suspicious is DEFINITELY going on.

(Part of the value of my posts is the relevant, real-life examples I provide.)

Without specific data it is all hypothetical, but if it is a regular occurrence, for a number of different players, you are entitled to be suspicious.

As for Jessica, and inappropriate touching, I wouldn't hold my breath. Paris or LiLo maybe.

Quote: superrick

I can tell you positively, that one of the manufacture of dice here in Vegas does not balance the dice before they are sold!

Thanks! That explains why I enjoy my results so thoroughly in Las Vegas. Not so much, though, in Atlantic City, where they spin the cubes before opening each table.

scudder, thank you. I think we share the same views in this regard, and you are one of the few who recognized that the question was whether or not gaming regulators are watching out for us, the gamblers.

I posted in another thread, that I have had some incredibly bad luck recently at craps. If I lose EVERY SINGLE BET I make, that's just bad luck. It can never be proven that a casino cheated even if I lose every single bet.

Last year, I lost almost $40,000. I'm not crying about it, or saying I was cheated. I can afford it, and for the most part I had some fun. But I play craps almost exclusively, with PL and 2 come bets with full odds, mostly 10x odds at the casino I frequent. The house edge in that case is .18%. If I pushed $10,000,000 across the felt (a not inconsiderable sum) over the course of a year, I should expect to lose about $18,000. So I have to ask, was I really, really, really unlucky, or is there something else to be considered?

So you lost twice as much as expectation. That's not bad enough to justify cheating, in my opinion. A VP-playing friend played $10,000,000 worth of video poker on $1 Pick 'Em and lost $20,000 in one year. That's a 99.95% return game, with an expected loss of $5,000. The variance is 15. I don't know the variance of a pass line bet with 10X odds but I think it's around 3 or 4? I just think you hit the really bad end of the variance curve. But maybe they were cheated too...

Quote: teddys

So you lost twice as much as expectation. That's not bad enough to justify cheating, in my opinion. A VP-playing friend played $10,000,000 worth of video poker on $1 Pick 'Em and lost $20,000 in one year. That's a 99.95% return game, with an expected loss of $5,000. The variance is 15. I don't know the variance of a pass line bet with 10X odds but I think it's around 3 or 4? I just think you hit the really bad end of the variance curve. But maybe they were cheated too...

Sorry I wasn't clear about the $10,000,000. I doubt that I wagered anywhere near $10,000,000. I don't know how to estimate the amount I actually wagered, but I was guessing it was much less than $10,000,000 - indicating my results were much worse than 2 times expectation.

And I would not cheat the casino in any event. Their countermeasures are much stronger than mine. ;)

I was thinking about this some more, and maybe $10,000,000 per year is possible. But compare to video poker: At $5 times 600 hands per hour, it would take 3,333 hours to run through $10,000,000. My gut feeling is that VP runs the dollars through much faster than craps. And I'm not bettting big $. Anyway, I was using $10,000,000 in my example as what I thought was a ridiculously high number.

Quote: Headlock

scudder, thank you. I think we share the same views in this regard, and you are one of the few who recognized that the question was whether or not gaming regulators are watching out for us, the gamblers.

I posted in another thread, that I have had some incredibly bad luck recently at craps. If I lose EVERY SINGLE BET I make, that's just bad luck. It can never be proven that a casino cheated even if I lose every single bet.

Last year, I lost almost $40,000. I'm not crying about it, or saying I was cheated. I can afford it, and for the most part I had some fun. But I play craps almost exclusively, with PL and 2 come bets with full odds, mostly 10x odds at the casino I frequent. The house edge in that case is .18%. If I pushed $10,000,000 across the felt (a not inconsiderable sum) over the course of a year, I should expect to lose about $18,000. So I have to ask, was I really, really, really unlucky, or is there something else to be considered?

If you wanted you could calculate exactly how probable losing $40,000 is given a known bet size and known house edge. Assuming your 0.18% edge is correct (not saying it isn't, I just don't know off the top of my head), then you also have to look at variance, which would increase as your bet size increased. Also remember that playing 10X odds increases your variance substantially as well.

Also, you've really piqued my interest in the whole oversight thing. I've always assumed someone was sorta-kinda watching over things, and I suspect that the NGC is pretty strict and well-run as they have some massive reputations to uphold, but I do wonder about my local "indian" casino and how effective their oversight is. In every case I can think of the oversight entities are funded either directly by the casinos themselves or indirectly through taxes, so of course there's at least the potential for a conflict of interest.

I have always believed (with absolutely no evidence to back it up) that Nevada and Las Vegas especially were special cases since massive corporations run the casinos there, for the most part. Especially now, massive banks are behind the corporations, and it simply wouldn't make sense for all these public companies to risk billions in profits by swiping an extra "quarter" off someone's stack or slipping in a loaded set of dice. The idea that a casino would see a worthwhile profit by doing either of these things is absurd to me. I've seen dealers make mistakes and correct them, and I've seen pit bosses pay patrons who swear they asked the stickman to put that hardway back up when everyone at the table knows damn well that they forgot. The fact is that no one person can do much to a casino's bottom line, unless you're playing at the highest levels. If casinos wanted to nickel and dime us to death they'd raise the room rates by $5 a night or bump the price of a slice of pizza up by 50 cents. No one would even notice.

Quote: scudder

If you wanted you could calculate exactly how probable losing $40,000 is given a known bet size and known house edge. Assuming your 0.18% edge is correct (not saying it isn't, I just don't know off the top of my head), then you also have to look at variance, which would increase as your bet size increased. Also remember that playing 10X odds increases your variance substantially as well.

I do want. I don't know how.

Quote: scudder

Also, you've really piqued my interest in the whole oversight thing. I've always assumed someone was sorta-kinda watching over things, and I suspect that the NGC is pretty strict and well-run as they have some massive reputations to uphold, but I do wonder about my local "indian" casino and how effective their oversight is. In every case I can think of the oversight entities are funded either directly by the casinos themselves or indirectly through taxes, so of course there's at least the potential for a conflict of interest.

I have always believed (with absolutely no evidence to back it up) that Nevada and Las Vegas especially were special cases since massive corporations run the casinos there, for the most part. Especially now, massive banks are behind the corporations, and it simply wouldn't make sense for all these public companies to risk billions in profits by swiping an extra "quarter" off someone's stack or slipping in a loaded set of dice. The idea that a casino would see a worthwhile profit by doing either of these things is absurd to me. I've seen dealers make mistakes and correct them, and I've seen pit bosses pay patrons who swear they asked the stickman to put that hardway back up when everyone at the table knows damn well that they forgot. The fact is that no one person can do much to a casino's bottom line, unless you're playing at the highest levels. If casinos wanted to nickel and dime us to death they'd raise the room rates by $5 a night or bump the price of a slice of pizza up by 50 cents. No one would even notice.

I'm not going to say casinos cheat, or would cheat if they had the opportunity, but I think if they could increase the edge on table games or slots just by a fraction of a percent, it would result in millions, not nickels and dimes.