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rsactuary
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June 4th, 2017 at 7:45:39 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It is NOT a VERY HIGH chance. I would guess that the average man DJT's age and general condition has a better than 70% chance to make it to 2025. My guess is PacoMartin can find an actuarial table somewhere to get a better guess.



Using an illustrative life table I have from my life contingencies classes back in the 80s, I calculate about 68.4% chance of survival. However, mortality has certainly improved since then and the Imperial Wizard in Chief would get the best of care... so i would put the estimate at about 75% chance of survival.
JohnnyQ
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June 4th, 2017 at 9:59:54 AM permalink
But certainly having his foot in his mouth and his head up his arse so often cannot be healthy.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
boymimbo
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June 4th, 2017 at 10:20:48 AM permalink
Health issues aside, I give him a very high probability right now of winning the 2020 election. Most analysts believe that even if Trump is implicated in Russia he will survive. Right now the democrats are rudderless and without a candidate. Old school is out.

This is not his last 100 days. Not even close.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
steeldco
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June 4th, 2017 at 10:51:05 AM permalink
Will enough of the Gullibles stand up and say that they've had enough in the Georgia special election so that the Democrat wins there? Yo Gullibles, it's OK to work towards having the guy who is consistently whacking you in the head with his hammer voted out and the threat minimized. Stand up. Show some self-esteem.

It probably isn't going to happen, but boy it'd be nice to see a landslide in favor of the Democrat so that the laughs at Trump can grow louder. Let's laugh, alongside the rest of the civilized world, at this guy called Trump.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
EvenBob
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June 4th, 2017 at 12:44:45 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. I would guess that the average man DJT's age and general condition has a better than 70% chance to make it to 2025.



Higher, I would say. His dad lived to 94, and
Trump has never smoked, drank or done
drugs of any kind. He also has access as
president to the best medical care on the
planet. Ever notice that ex presidents seem
to live forever? Bush Sr and Carter are still
around in their 90's. Ford was 94, Reagan
was 93. I would be shocked if Trump doesn't
make it to his 90's.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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June 4th, 2017 at 12:48:21 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Nobody gives a crap about Hillary.



Really? She's all over the news on her
blame tour, she's everywhere. She is
in every other headline lately, somebody
seems to care. Maybe she'll run in 2020,
we can only hope..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
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June 4th, 2017 at 12:49:18 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Reagan
was 93.



But how was his quality of life near the end? He was already fading in his 2nd term.

And Donald's dad had Alzheimer's also.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ams288
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June 4th, 2017 at 12:51:25 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Maybe she'll run in 2020,
we can only hope..



lol yeah. That would be your only hope for 2020.

And the only reason you see her all over the news is because you only watch right wing crap. They can't talk about Donald's scandals and lack of accomplishments, so they gotta talk about Hillary like the election is still going on or something...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
EvenBob
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June 4th, 2017 at 1:29:59 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

And Donald's dad had Alzheimer's also.



So, in your mind, 94 with Alz is the same
as 70 without Alz. Fred Trump got Alz
when he was 88, but to you 88 and 70
are the same age. Amazing to live in
your world, how do you do it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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June 4th, 2017 at 2:05:30 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So, in your mind, 94 with Alz is the same
as 70 without Alz. Fred Trump got Alz
when he was 88, but to you 88 and 70
are the same age. Amazing to live in
your world, how do you do it.



I've got nothing against Fred Trump, but if someone goes back in time to 1945 can you kick him in the nuts every day in October.

Did I cross a line? Let's hope so.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
ams288
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June 4th, 2017 at 2:13:14 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So, in your mind, 94 with Alz is the same
as 70 without Alz. Fred Trump got Alz
when he was 88, but to you 88 and 70
are the same age. Amazing to live in
your world, how do you do it.



Dad got it at 88, maybe the son got it at 68. Who knows? Donald is already showing signs of.... something. Just look at his confusion during his recent trip to Israel.

Could just be a raging case of untreated syphilis, though. Who knows what those Russian hookers carry...
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
EvenBob
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June 4th, 2017 at 3:53:36 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Dad got it at 88, maybe the son got it at 68. Who knows?



Who knows, really? My mother in law has it
and her docs knew almost immediately. Who
knows? Do you think this is 1912? Who
knows? Really?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
RS
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June 4th, 2017 at 3:55:01 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Who knows, really? My mother in law has it
and her docs knew almost immediately. Who
knows? Do you think this is 1912? Who
knows? Really?


It's ams288's wishful thinking. Sad.
JoelDeze
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June 4th, 2017 at 4:07:20 PM permalink
Media hype is what it's always been: If it bleeds, it leads. I don't pay attention to liberal media anymore. I'm waiting for California to sink and fall into the ocean so Hollywood will stop making so many awful movies.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
ams288
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June 4th, 2017 at 6:58:18 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Who knows, really? My mother in law has it
and her docs knew almost immediately. Who
knows? Do you think this is 1912? Who
knows? Really?



You sound upset. Do you need a #safespace? Cause it ain't here in this thread! lol
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
rxwine
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June 4th, 2017 at 7:15:59 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

You sound upset. Do you need a #safespace? Cause it ain't here in this thread! lol



I think several have tried to get Bob a safespace before, but he won't go.

(that's what we're calling it now, safespace)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
EvenBob
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June 5th, 2017 at 12:44:56 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

You sound upset. Do you need a #safespace?



Is there a safe space from ridiculous and
inane comments? It's amazing how the
worst candidate in US history losing
the election has warped so many minds.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Romes
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June 5th, 2017 at 8:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen




Sometimes natural changes happen quickly. One day you're a woolly mammoth grazing and the next your instantly frozen in ice with dinner still in your mouth.

Yes, sometimes, like never in the last 22,000 years and right until we started burning fossil fuels.... but sometimes.

Also - I'll take action that donald is not our president by 2025. Since he's the sitting president I'd imagine that would get me odds? Let me know who's interested in betting on trump being president in 2025.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ams288
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June 5th, 2017 at 11:59:16 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

It's amazing how the
worst candidate in US history losing
the election has warped so many minds.



He lost the popular vote, but not the election.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
rxwine
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June 5th, 2017 at 12:44:17 PM permalink
Best argument I've heard all day, is the US no longer considered the leader of the free world, not because Trump is not Alpha male enough, but because he is erratic and unreliable and no one can rely on him.
Last edited by: rxwine on Jun 5, 2017
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
TigerWu
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:04:06 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Best argument I've heard all day, is the US no longer considered the leader of the free world, not because Trump is not Alpha male enough, but because he is erratic and unreliable and no can rely on him.



I don't blame Trump for that. I think our pole position status has been on the downslide for years, since maybe the late '90's.

I think the next world leader is either going to be a strong EU country or China if they ever get all their ducks in a row.
Romes
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:13:54 PM permalink
While I agree our position has been sliding down over the years I do still think Trump is the straw that broke the camels back on this one. He is an outright joke, liar, and con artist that has so many people conned he (from his own words) could shoot someone in the middle of the street and "it wouldn't make a difference." He has people following him so blindly that they just ignore the AMAZINGLY TERRIBLE evidence of SO MANY things such as screwing over his own supporters. He's literally screwing them over, like really bad. All of that, in my opinion is why the rest of the world doesn't respect him, nor the US, as strongly as previously. Then again I don't think this is permanent... more like "yeah we'll take you seriously again when you get rid of the moronic man-child."

I mean hell, are they wrong? The guy pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement which 190 countries (even NK) all agree to try to HELP THE WORLD from the PROVEN FACTUAL SCIENTIFIC effects of Global Warming. There is no "negotiating" about it. It's not some "deal" that he needs to "win" at or make better. It's a simple agreement to not burn the damn house down that even insane dictators (KJU) even are agreeing to. How bad do you have to look when KJU agrees to help the world and you don't. THAT'S why people don't respect the US (right now) and I wouldn't expect them to. We literally aren't the best country in the world, and that's okay... Comparing countries at its core is a stupid idea anyways. Nationalism leads to wars. Religion leads to wars. Science leads to truths, and sometimes people who can outright look facts in the face and just disagree.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
billryan
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:27:44 PM permalink
Offered without comment.

Report Says NY Attorney General’s Case Led to Sealed Trump Indictment
by Ronn Blitzer | 12:05 pm, May 30th, 2017


Earlier this month, Louise Mensch and Claude Taylor reported on the patribotics blog that there is already a sealed indictment against President Donald Trump that could be used as grounds for impeachment. On Monday, they reported additional information, claiming that not only does the indictment exist, but it’s the result of an investigation conducted by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman.
The report states that Schneiderman’s office was looking into Russian oligarchs and mobsters, including Semion Moglievich who reportedly lived in Trump Tower. That investigation supposedly turned up information that led Schneiderman to go to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC). FISC, the story goes, then brought evidence to a federal grand jury who indicted the President. While prosecutors won’t/can’t move forward with a criminal case against the sitting President, the indictment is supposedly being used for an impeachment case.
The report says that after the grand jury voted to indict, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein showed the indictment to Senators including Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), and that Representative Al Green (D-Texas) then called for Trump’s impeachment on the House floor. “I can report as fact that the Sergeant At Arms of the Senate … went to the White House on that Wednesday night,” the report says, adding that President Trump was notified that an impeachment case against him has commenced. The report also indicates that a judicial branch official informed Trump that he didn’t follow procedure when he declassified information that he revealed to Russian officials.
LawNewz.com reached out to the offices of Schneiderman and Graham for comment, but they have yet to respond.
The report remains unconfirmed and doesn’t go into a lot of specifics, nor is it clear on what kind of sources it relies on. Mensch drew plenty of criticism when she said in her original report that it was the Marshal of the Supreme Court who gave Trump the news, which is not how this process would go. Mensch corrected herself in the new report, saying that it was the Senate’s Sergeant At Arms who who went to the White House. While Mensch’s credibility has been called into question, she was reliable when reporting on a different story involving FISC, where she broke the news that the FBI, during the Obama administration, obtained a FISA warrant to look into ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.
If this new report is true, it could explain why White House lawyers were reportedly researching impeachment in the days after Trump was supposedly notified.
[Image via ABC screengrab]
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The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rxwine
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:40:08 PM permalink
Don't they usually like to keep a lot of info under wraps during an investigation so they can get various corroborating or conflicting testimony building a strong case if there is one before springing it on the potential defendants? I think there is some interesting things already uncovered that they may be withholding for this reason.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
ams288
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:41:28 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Earlier this month, Louise Mensch and Claude Taylor reported on the patribotics blog



Not the most reliable of sources...

I look at their stuff as fan fiction. It'd be exciting if it were true, but it's not.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
ams288
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June 5th, 2017 at 1:43:05 PM permalink
With former FBI director Comey testifying on Thursday, expect Donald's tweets to become more deranged and his behavior to become more erratic as the week goes on.

He's gotta try to deflect the attention somehow!
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
EvenBob
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June 5th, 2017 at 7:07:06 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Offered without comment.

Report Says NY Attorney General’s Case Led to Sealed Trump Indictment
by Ronn Blitzer | 12:05 pm, May 30th, 2017



The uber Lib site Snopes says this:

UNPROVEN

http://www.snopes.com/sealed-indictment-president-trump/
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
gamerfreak
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June 5th, 2017 at 7:39:41 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The uber Lib site Snopes says this:

UNPROVEN

http://www.snopes.com/sealed-indictment-president-trump/


They aren't a lib site, it's just that most fake news comes from the alt-right.
boymimbo
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June 5th, 2017 at 7:45:57 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The uber Lib site Snopes says this:

UNPROVEN

http://www.snopes.com/sealed-indictment-president-trump/



Wow, Bob checks for fake news. How about that?
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
EvenBob
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June 5th, 2017 at 7:51:36 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

They aren't a lib site,



"The snopes couple is no more reliable than Wikipedia, with their team of amateur editors who lie through their teeth to support an agenda (to criticize anything conservative). Snopes is just one of Obama’s (and Hillary’s) mass media shilling websites."

http://www.truthwiki.org/snopes-snopes-com/
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
boymimbo
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June 5th, 2017 at 8:01:22 PM permalink
Ah, Bob, nothing like posting a quote from a very biased site (who advertises that 9/11 was an inside job) to make a point about another not-so-biased site. Forbes has a far more interesting story on Snopes.

I missed you, Bob. How's life in Michigan?
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
gamerfreak
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June 5th, 2017 at 8:01:32 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

"The snopes couple is no more reliable than Wikipedia, with their team of amateur editors who lie through their teeth to support an agenda (to criticize anything conservative). Snopes is just one of Obama’s (and Hillary’s) mass media shilling websites."

http://www.truthwiki.org/snopes-snopes-com/



REALLY, that's a more reliable source?!

Quote:

The Democratic Party’s KKK mission was to terrorize freed slaves and any Republicans who sympathized with them.

The Democratic Party has never switched stances on racism, but rather subverted the enslavement of blacks by promoting their absolute dependence on Big Government to secure their votes. Anyone who now opposes this subversion is labeled racist.

Planned Parenthood is another subversion attempt at genocide to abort as many black babies as possible, as the organization is primarily based in inner cities and slums.

Most metropolitan cities in America are run by liberal Democrats who fuel dysfunctional anarchies full of gangs, drug dealers and poor blacks who depend on welfare for food.



Sounds like an unbiased source to me....

EvenBob
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June 5th, 2017 at 8:18:53 PM permalink
Snopes is no more reliable than wiki and is Lib
biased, that's why all the Lib's defend it so much.
They LUVED Obama.. We've had this discussion
before. Bad mouth Snopes and the Libs come
unglued. Ask yourself why that is..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
gamerfreak
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June 5th, 2017 at 8:32:51 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Snopes is no more reliable than wiki and is Lib
biased, that's why all the Lib's defend it so much.
They LUVED Obama.. We've had this discussion
before. Bad mouth Snopes and the Libs come
unglued. Ask yourself why that is..


My claim was that Snopes having a heavy liberal bias is something perpetuated by the alt-right because they don't like to be fact checked.

And you refuted that, using an alt-right propaganda site as your source.

You surely can see where that logic does not follow.
EvenBob
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June 5th, 2017 at 9:14:04 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

My claim was that Snopes having a heavy liberal bias



My claim is that I've never seen a Lib
that's doesn't love the crap out of
Snopes, why is that. They will defend
it long and hard, don't you ever wonder
why? Think really hard for a minute..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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June 5th, 2017 at 9:29:17 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

"The snopes couple is no more reliable than Wikipedia, with their team of amateur editors who lie through their teeth to support an agenda (to criticize anything conservative). Snopes is just one of Obama’s (and Hillary’s) mass media shilling websites."

http://www.truthwiki.org/snopes-snopes-com/



And you are more reliable?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
boymimbo
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June 5th, 2017 at 9:30:41 PM permalink
My claim is that I've never seen a Righty
that doesn't love the crap out of
FoxNews, why is that. They will defend
it long and hard, don't you ever wonder
why? Don't think about it for even a second..
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ibeatyouraces
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June 5th, 2017 at 9:38:06 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

And you are more reliable?


He beats roulette with a betting system. What do you think?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
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June 6th, 2017 at 2:42:34 AM permalink
Trump told about 8 lies about ATC and what his plan would do in just the 1 minute synopsis I heard. Please do not believe the promises or the hype. Privatization is very bad for this country ' s safety and the aviation community, at least in any proposals received so far (over the last 25 years, and including this).

The aviation system and the airspace over this country is an asset worth trillions. Do not let Trump give it away to private corporations. It is yours.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
darkoz
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June 6th, 2017 at 6:12:35 AM permalink
Since no one has mentioned it yet a top secret doc of the NSA has been leaked detailing attempts from russian military GSU to cyberattack and hack our election. Definitive and direct evidence of election misconduct

It has led to a quick arrest of the leaker so this document and its leak is being considered quite important

Here is one article on how significant
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/06/06/this-is-huge-national-security-experts-were-floored-by-the-le/22128238/
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RogerKint
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June 6th, 2017 at 7:24:55 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Trump told about 8 lies about ATC and what his plan would do in just the 1 minute synopsis I heard. Please do not believe the promises or the hype. Privatization is very bad for this country ' s safety and the aviation community, at least in any proposals received so far (over the last 25 years, and including this).

The aviation system and the airspace over this country is an asset worth trillions. Do not let Trump give it away to private corporations. It is yours.



When airlines privatized did they become unsafe? No, air travel became better and more affordable. Privatize everything.
100% risk of ruin
rxwine
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June 6th, 2017 at 8:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

When airlines privatized did they become unsafe? No, air travel became better and more affordable. Privatize everything.



Quote:

But no evidence has yet been produced to show that privatization would reduce costs. In fact, nations that have privatized ATC have seen operational costs increase at a much higher rate than has been seen in the U.S. under the FAA.”



http://abcnews.go.com/US/privatizing-air-traffic-control-trumps-proposal-expected/story?id=47841115

Personally, I'm not against privatization, but I have a lot of concerns about Trump's ideas in general and want to hear much more debate and facts on this.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
RogerKint
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June 6th, 2017 at 9:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Quote:

But no evidence has yet been produced to show that privatization would reduce costs. In fact, nations that have privatized ATC have seen operational costs increase at a much higher rate than has been seen in the U.S. under the FAA.”



http://abcnews.go.com/US/privatizing-air-traffic-control-trumps-proposal-expected/story?id=47841115



This type of thinking is why people are tuning out. Other nations are getting their asses kicked by Hitler? Well, we better surrender. Other nations haven't freed their slaves? Well we better not either. Our ATC is the best in the world because AMERICANS are doing it.
100% risk of ruin
terapined
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June 6th, 2017 at 10:39:18 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Quote: rxwine

Quote:

But no evidence has yet been produced to show that privatization would reduce costs. In fact, nations that have privatized ATC have seen operational costs increase at a much higher rate than has been seen in the U.S. under the FAA.”



http://abcnews.go.com/US/privatizing-air-traffic-control-trumps-proposal-expected/story?id=47841115



Our ATC is the best in the world because AMERICANS are doing it.


Really?
I am no expert in this field but I find that hard to believe
There isn't a single country on this planet that has an equal or better ATC?
Source please
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
boymimbo
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June 6th, 2017 at 10:50:32 AM permalink
No, your ATC is the best in the world because:

(1) You have stringent hiring standards including strict medical, physical and mental examinations which endure throughout employment.
(2) You have stringent rule enforcements, regulations, and SOPs which are dutifully followed that makes air travel and ground movements safe.
(3) You pay workers well which provides longevity in a very tough and stressful environment.

It has nothing to do with AMERICANS.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
RogerKint
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June 6th, 2017 at 10:58:16 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Quote: RogerKint

Quote: rxwine

Quote:

But no evidence has yet been produced to show that privatization would reduce costs. In fact, nations that have privatized ATC have seen operational costs increase at a much higher rate than has been seen in the U.S. under the FAA.”



http://abcnews.go.com/US/privatizing-air-traffic-control-trumps-proposal-expected/story?id=47841115



Our ATC is the best in the world because AMERICANS are doing it.


Really?
I am no expert in this field but I find that hard to believe
There isn't a single country on this planet that has an equal or better ATC?
Source please



Babs, is blasphemy against forum rules? ;)
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rxwine
rxwine
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June 6th, 2017 at 10:59:24 AM permalink
I was going to quote the old line, if it ain't broke don't fix it. But yes, ATC needs modernization.

So, instead I will say, it ain't broke enough to fix. Leave it alone. If we are still getting good or better results than others especially.

Guess I should add, I don't mean the modernization part which is always done, just the general idea being proposed about breaking it away to private industry.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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June 6th, 2017 at 11:30:13 AM permalink
Why privatize a system that's doing quite well as is?

I have a guess...to line the pockets of campaign contributors, lobbyists, and political cronyism.

Also, Delta Airlines released a study in 2016 showing that consumer airline fares will go up 20-30% under a privatized ATC system.

“Proponents have claimed that privatization would lead to cost savings for consumers,” the study stated. “But no evidence has yet been produced to show that privatization would reduce costs. In fact, nations that have privatized ATC have seen operational costs increase at a much higher rate than has been seen in the U.S. under the FAA.”

The only argument I am hearing is "government is BAD, mmkay?", when in reality the FAA is doing just fine.

Trump has failed on every piece of legislation he has tried to push through, despite the repubs having control over everything. His fragile ego needs a victory, and this is the low hanging fruit.
rxwine
rxwine
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June 6th, 2017 at 11:46:13 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Trump has failed on every piece of legislation he has tried to push through, despite the repubs having control over everything. His fragile ego needs a victory, and this is the low hanging fruit.



If I was a Republican, I would secretly want Trump gone before he can run for reelection. As long as you can keep Pence there for a year or 2.

It's a secret.

If they really want Trump for 8 years, may God or whatever have mercy on their souls, or their spiritual hoo hoos or whatever they believe.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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June 6th, 2017 at 1:10:24 PM permalink
I bet those major Asian airports have some crack ATC guys, too... Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing, etc.
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