LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
• Posts: 376
April 9th, 2017 at 10:32:56 PM permalink
Here are 3 VP games listed in vpfree2.com for Main Street Station, which offers scratchers for natural quads (\$2 minimum to \$5,000)

JOB 99.54% ER, 9/6

DB 99.11% ER, 9/7

DB 100.17% ER, 10/7 (but requires \$3 coin-in to earn 1 point)

Does any 1 game listed above offer a better return in the long run? I'm not sure, but I'll guess "the long run" means at LEAST 50,000 to 100,000 hands?

What calculation do you make to reach that decision? (That way, I can do similar calculations for other games, like Deuces Wild, etc.).

Assumption: playing max credits on a \$0.25 machine, or \$1.25/deal

If playing \$0.50 games (or higher) makes a difference, please explain how much difference, and why?

Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
• Posts: 237
Thanks for this post from:
April 9th, 2017 at 10:49:47 PM permalink
Those return numbers you already have only get more accurate the more hands you play. I assume what you are trying to ask is what the variance is like for each game ? Jacks or Better has lower variance than Double Bonus. So playing the Double Bonus you are more likely to see bigger positive and negative streaks and on average will need a larger bankroll to cover your play.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
BlueEagle
Joined: Jun 7, 2015
• Posts: 243
Thanks for this post from:
April 9th, 2017 at 10:50:39 PM permalink
I'll give you a quick response to hold you over until the smarter and more knowledgeable members reply. My assumption is that the expected returns are in the long run, therefore the game with the highest expected return offers the better return in the long run. I'm interested to find out if I'm wrong.
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
• Posts: 376
April 9th, 2017 at 11:21:35 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

Those return numbers you already have only get more accurate the more hands you play. I assume what you are trying to ask is what the variance is like for each game ? Jacks or Better has lower variance than Double Bonus. So playing the Double Bonus you are more likely to see bigger positive and negative streaks and on average will need a larger bankroll to cover your play.

I wasn't thinking of variance, but now that you mention it, I can better appreciate why I actually did experience more +/- streaks playing DB vs playing JoB.

The session bankroll I've used for years has been \$100/day, because I used to play Deuces Wild and a \$20 coin-in would last 2-3 hours. Maybe I was just lucky all those years? Our stays average 4-7 days only. I've hit a Royal Flush about 7 years ago on nickel play for DW at the Fremont, but haven't enjoyed that experience since.

I'm only asking about DB and JoB because I just played in a DDB VP Tournament at the Cal (TR follows soon).

Thanks for your input, and any more comments from anyone!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
• Posts: 376
April 9th, 2017 at 11:23:02 PM permalink
Quote: BlueEagle

I'll give you a quick response to hold you over until the smarter and more knowledgeable members reply. My assumption is that the expected returns are in the long run, therefore the game with the highest expected return offers the better return in the long run. I'm interested to find out if I'm wrong.

I'm just as interested in seeing what the more experienced folks have to share . . . ??????
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
bobbartop
Joined: Mar 15, 2016
• Posts: 1055
April 9th, 2017 at 11:36:04 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

Here are 3 VP games listed in vpfree2.com for Main Street Station, which offers scratchers for natural quads (\$2 minimum to \$5,000)

JOB 99.54% ER, 9/6

DB 99.11% ER, 9/7

DB 100.17% ER, 10/7 (but requires \$3 coin-in to earn 1 point)

Does any 1 game listed above offer a better return in the long run? I'm not sure, but I'll guess "the long run" means at LEAST 50,000 to 100,000 hands?

What calculation do you make to reach that decision? (That way, I can do similar calculations for other games, like Deuces Wild, etc.).

Assumption: playing max credits on a \$0.25 machine, or \$1.25/deal

If playing \$0.50 games (or higher) makes a difference, please explain how much difference, and why?

I'd add about 9 coins to any quad. In that case, 10-7 DB will return 100.59%. If you're Emerald, add .10%, (1/3 points), for a total of 100.69%. Forget about bounceback, I can't figure out what any Boyd Property is doing in that category now.

Do the same thing with JoB, add 9 coins to quads, and it returns 99.97%. Add full points for Emerald, .30%, totals 100.27%.

So, there are better plays for quarters, but I hope this answers your question as for Main Street. Hope you scratch off 5K. Good luck.

By the way, I consider 3 million hands a decent run at the "long run". Playing full time, that's about a year and a half. Get your software and run high speed sims, and get your own feel for the long run. You must have software to play this. I've seen newbies on these boards argue that they don't need software. That's just stupid.
Don't believe anything until it is officially denied.
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 2342
April 10th, 2017 at 12:42:42 AM permalink
\$100 a day bankroll will get you more hands than DDB. Most sessions you'll lose your BR quicker playing DDB, but over the long haul make out slightly better. JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 12641
Thanks for this post from:
April 10th, 2017 at 1:58:22 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

And possible thoughts of suicide.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
bobbartop
Joined: Mar 15, 2016
• Posts: 1055
April 10th, 2017 at 5:04:42 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

\$100 a day bankroll will get you more hands than DDB. Most sessions you'll lose your BR quicker playing DDB, but over the long haul make out slightly better. JOB will result in fewer big losses, and fewer big wins.

I thought he was primarily asking about JoB vs DB at Main Street (not DDB). What is JoB, for quarters, with a .27% edge going to do for him? Especially if there is no bounceback. He'll never win anything, maybe not even in the "long run".
Don't believe anything until it is officially denied.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010